Reply #46: Let's take these new figures and do a bit of deductive figuring. [View All]

[elperromagico]

Please bear in mind that this is just speculation based on an attempt to make both the Bush 2000 and Gore 2000 turnout figures more realistic. I am simply playing with numbers to see what happens.

We'll leave the Nader/Other figure the same, and add all extra voters to the Didn't Vote in 2000 pile.

But we can't leave that Bush 2000 voter figure like that, now can we? 102% is ludicrous. And the roughly 76% rate for Gore voters seems rather anemic, doesn't it? So, let's just average them out. 87% of Gore 2000 voters. To play devil's advocate, let's give Bush an advantage. 92% of Bush 2000 voters.

Total Vote: 122,293,278

Bush 2000 Voters: 46,423,301 (38%)
To Bush: 42,245,204 (91%)
To Kerry: 4,178,097 (9%)
Gore 2000 Voters: 44,373,416 (36%)
To Bush: 4,437,342 (10%)
To Kerry: 39,936,074 (90%)
Nader/Other 2000 Voters: 3,594,143 (3%)
To Bush: 754,770 (21%)
To Kerry: 2,551,841 (71%)
To Other: 287,532 (8%)
Didn't Vote in 2000: 27,902,418 (23%)
To Bush: 12,556,088 (45%)
To Kerry: 15,067,306 (54%)
To Other: 279,024 (1%)

Let's see what our speculation produces:

Bush: 59,993,404 (49.06%)
Kerry: 61,733,318 (50.48%)
Other: 566,556 (0.46%)

Well - that's a difference, certainly.