EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL
6/6/05 10:53 AM
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target
Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll response
data.
TARGET INPUT
Kerry 48.77%
Bush 51.23%
Constraints on Precinct Variables:
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW).
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the range (Min, Max)
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input.
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS
53.0% Wtd Average Response rate
1.12 Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )
1250 Strong Bush Strong Kerry
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90
Kerry Win Pct:
MinW 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
MaxW 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Response rates:
MinR 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MaxR 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Alpha
Min 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Max 1.20 1.20 1.50 1.50 1.50
WPE
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
Min -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
Max -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY
Precincts
Number 40 415 540 165 90 Wtd Average
Resp. 21.9% 58.4% 59.6% 30.0% 44.2% 53.0%
Dev -31.1% 5.4% 6.6% -23.0% -8.8%
ALPHA
K/B 1.20 1.20 1.10 1.03 1.00 1.12
Dev 7% 7% -2% -8% -11% 0%
WPE -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
Diff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EXIT POLL
Kerry 52.16% of exit poll responders
Bush 47.84%
Bush needed 55.57% of refusers to match his vote
Kerry Deviation
Vote-Exit -3.39%
OPTIMIZATION MODEL
Categ. HighB Bush Even Kerry HighK . Total/Avg
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90 1250
Kerry 17% 20% 54% 80% 94% 48.06%
ALPHA
K/B 1.20 1.20 1.10 1.03 1.00 1.12
AvgDev 7% 7% -2% -8% -11% 0%
RESPONDERS
Total 9 242 322 50 40 663
Pct 22% 58% 60% 30% 44% 53.0%
Kerry 2 58 193 41 37 331
Pct 21% 24% 60% 82% 94% 52.2%
Bush 7 184 129 9 2 331
Pct 79% 76% 40% 18% 6% 47.8%
REFUSERS
Total 31 173 218 115 50 587
Pct 78% 42% 40% 70% 56% 47.0%
Kerry 5 29 108 90 47 278
Pct 15% 17% 49% 78% 94% 44.4%
Bush 27 144 110 25 3 309
Pct 85% 83% 51% 22% 6% 55.6%
VOTE
Kerry 6 87 301 131 85 610
Pct 16.0% 21.0% 55.7% 79.2% 94.3% 48.77%
Bush 34 328 239 34 5 640
Pct 84.0% 79.1% 44.3% 20.8% 5.7% 51.23%
WPE
Kv-Bv -68.1% -58.1% 11.4% 58.4% 88.5% -2.46%
Kp-Bp -58.1% -52.0% 19.9% 64.3% 88.2% 4.31%
WPE -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
E-M WPE -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%