A conversation at the Bronx Zoo. [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

A conversation overheard at the Bronx Zoo:

A-The exit polls showed that Kerry won
B- Exit polls are inherently unreliable.

A- But they are used all over the world to detect fraud.
B- They are not designed for that here.

A- Thousands are randomly sampled. The margin of error is very low.
B- It is not a true random sample.

A- Why not?
B- The cluster effect, or as the cognoscenti call it, the "Design Effect"

A- But exit polls are more accurate than standard pre-election polls. Many more voters are interviewed.
B- You forgot the design effect.

A- But exit polls must be more accurate than standard pre-election polls because people are not undecided; they know exactly who they just voted for.
B- People forget who they voted for in prior elections, so the responses cannot be taken at face value.

A- But that would apply equally to both former Gore and Bush voters.
B- No, only Gore voters forget.

A- I see, cluster effect and forgetful Gore voters. What else?
B- Some Gore voters lied and said they voted for Bush.

A- Why would they do that?
B- To identify with the previous winner - Bush.

A - But he stole it from Gore.
B - Makes no difference. People like a winner. They forgave him.

A- I read that 16 states deviated beyond the Margin of Error for Bush. The odds are 1 in 19 trillion.
B- Voodoo math - based on invalid assumptions. Bush exceeded the MoE in only 3 states. Remember, you must multiply the standard MoE formula by 1.6. Design effect. Adjusted MoE is equal to 1.6/sqrt(n).

A- But all 22 Easter time-zone states deviated to Bush, regardless of MoE. The odds of that are 1 in 4 million.
B- Sometimes, shit happens.

A- But Kerry won the three exit poll timelines up to and including the 13047 respondents at 12:22am, long after the polls closed. That's a 1% MoE according to Mitofsky.
B - The 1% is a rounded number. It was more like 1.49%.

A- That's still very low.
B- But Bush voters were reluctant to be polled . Haven't you heard of rBr? Of course Kerry won the exit polls. Bush voters avoided and Kerry voters were anxious to be polled. And these Bush voters were former Gore voters who forgot who they voted for in 2000.

A- I'm confused. Are you saying that Kerry voters were anxious to speak to exit pollsters and when they did, they forgot they voted for Gore in 2000 or lied about it?
B- No, I'm saying that there were Gore voters who forgot they voted for Gore or lied about it and voted for Bush in 2004.

A- Is that why the 2000 voter split was 43%Bush/37% Gore.
B. Precisely.

A- What about rBr? Isn't there a contradiction here?
B- None whatsoever.

A- But 43% of Bush voters means that he got 52.57 million votes in 2000. He only got 50.45 million in 2000.
B- You forget, of the 43%, 1 in 14 were actually Gore voters who forgot or lied they voted for him.

A- Weren't the final exit poll weights adjusted to match the recorded vote count?
B- Of course.

A- So was the 43%/37% Bush?/Gore 2000 voter split an adjustment or was it in fact a true sample?
B- Both.

A- What if the vote count was rigged? Why match to a rigged result?
B- Because that's how it's always been done. What makes you think the vote count was rigged?

A- Assume for a moment that the vote count was rigged. If the FINAL exit poll matched a rigged count, why should we believe the final exit poll?
B- No one says that you should believe it.

A- But if the Final Exit poll is wrong, because it matched to a bogus vote count, then the preliminary poll of 13,047 respondents which showed that Kerry won by 51-48% must be closer to the truth.
B - Not necessarily.

A- Why not?
B- Design effect.

A- So why conduct an exit poll in the first place?
B- Good question. The answer is simple. The people want to be convinced that their votes counted. The Final Exit Poll confirms that.

A- How can you make that statement?
B- People believe the vote count is perfectly accurate - for two reasons. One, 122 million votes were tallied. That's a lot better than 13,047 respondents. Two, if it wasn't accurate, you would hear about in the media.

They would never abdicate their responsibilities as the Fourth Estate to protect us from ourselves.