Reply #50: Blunenthal refuses to be convinced. Kool-Aid laced analysis. [View All]

[Helga Scow Stern]

Freeman should answer him. I'll e-mail him.

He uses reports based on 2000 elections to debunk Freeman's claim that exit polls are valid predictors (from Florida, no less). That alone throws his credibility to properly evaluate what is going on into question:

>>A post-election memo from Mitofsky and Joe Lenski, Mitofsky's associate and partner on the election desk, stated that on election day 2000, VNS's exit poll overstated the Gore vote in 22 states and understated the Bush vote in nine states. In only 10 states, the exit polls matched actual results. The VNS post-election report says its exit poll estimates showed the wrong winner in eight states (Konner, 2003, p. 11).
So much for the previously "high degrees of certainty" Freeman told us about.<<

Although he does make a valid point that Freeman should back up his contention of exit poll validity with more than statements by Thom Hartmann, Dick Morris, and someone else.

Finally, he says that NEP should release their data:

>>I am also frustrated by the lack of transparency and disclosure from NEP, even on such simple issues as reporting the sampling error for each state exit poll. Given the growing controversy, I hope they release as much data as possible on their investigation as soon as possible. The discrepancy also has very important implications for survey research generally, and pollsters everywhere will benefit by learning more about it.<<

But then, the Mitofsky interview convinces him no fraud involved:

>>Update: Mayflower Hill has an exclusive interview with Warren Mitofsky conducted earlier today. Using the type of analysis anticipated previously on this site, Mitofsky explains that his data show no evidence of fraud involving electronic voting machines.<<

The site he refers to directly above is here, from a previous blog:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/vote_fraud_.html