Study finds catch-22 of pandemic flu; could be stopped, but resources lack [View All]

[pandemic_1918]

Study finds catch-22 of pandemic flu; could be stopped, but resources lacking
http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=daf89fb9-9566-403b-bcb5-0a5d7df22be2
Helen Branswell
Canadian Press


Wednesday, December 15, 2004


TORONTO (CP) - Mathematical modellers at Harvard's School of Public Health may have identified the catch-22 of pandemic flu.
Future influenza pandemics might in theory be containable through aggressive early control measures, including wide use of vaccine and anti-viral drugs, they reported Wednesday in a letter to the journal Nature.
The hole in the argument, the authors admit, is that the world is not laying the groundwork needed to have those expensive tools ready for use in the early days of a pandemic.
"In theory it's possible," senior author Marc Lipsitch said of the containment hypothesis, which is based on modelling that suggests the influenza strain responsible for the worst pandemic in known history was not highly contagious.
While attractive, the theory would not gain universal acceptance from those who specialize in studying the way infectious diseases spread.
"This means that the disease can be stopped or slowed down by appropriate interventions, but those interventions require significant planning and investment and a high level of compliance among the population to those control measures," said Babak Pourbohloul, a mathematical modeller at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control.
Still, Lipsitch said the results support the argument that it's worth a try.
In particular, he highlighted the notion that developed countries should donate a stockpile of anti-viral drugs that could be used in a bid to extinguish an emerging pandemic.