Reply #12: That narrative isnt remotely realistic. [View All]

[K-W]

Say, hypothetically and catastrophically, an A-bomb is detonated in a major American city – New York for instance. And say the CIA, after a month of analysis, concludes the bomb was of Iranian origin, would you believe them?

First of all, there would be no month of analysis. The US would very quickly pick a target and destroy it. The reason countries wont attack the US is not just that the US has so many weapons, it is also that the US is brutal and aggressive. We go to war with Iraq and Vietnam to achieve certain local goals, but we also do it, along with other wars, to show the world that the US doesnt give a shit if you even did anything wrong. It will not hesitate to destroy you. And when the US goes out looking for scapegoats, even if the Iranians werent involved they would be at the top of the list.

But to answer the latter part of your question, no, I wouldnt believe the CIA, but that wouldnt matter because intelligence agencies around the world would be either confirming or denying the CIA conclusions.

I suspect a sizeable minority of Americans, and a majority of non-Americans would not. Indeed, I’d wager many non-Americans would receive the news of an American city’s destruction with unapologetic joy – people would celebrate in the streets like it was 1999 again.

You are letting your cynacism and republican propaganda get the better of you. The vast majority of the world wants to see an end to violence and would greet a nuclear holocaust in ANY land with immense grief. Do you really think non-Americans are inhuman monsters? There is a small number of people who celebrate when the US is attacked, and this is mainly because they are being directly or indirectly attacked by the US at the time.

Regardless, as I mentioned foriegn countries have thier own intelligence services, so this situation is impossible.

America would be bitterly divided between those Americans, incited by Fox News coverage of the destruction and death and of cheering foreigners, demanding payback and those Americans that refuse to be a part of genocidal thermonuclear revenge.

So? That wouldnt stop the military from doing anything. Obviously such an attack would provoke a 9-11 response on steroids. Pacifists would be lucky to not get locked up. The US would go to war, some people might complain. But if Iran actually did attack us, very few people would complain and we would know because the US is not the only country with its eyes on Iran.

And we are talking about the genocide of the Persian (Iranian) people here. Not to mention the Moslem world would see this as a declaration of Holy War against them.

Wrong. If Iran actually attacked us, the Moslem world would call them morons and hide under thier beds. They arent going to die for Irans mistake. They didnt defend Iraq from clear and obvious aggression, why would they defend Iran from a counter-attack? The militaries in the moslem world are controlled by self interested regimes, many of which are more closely tied to the US than Iran.

Why would they think it was a Holy war if Iran did attack the US?

And China and Europe would be most alienated as its natural gas and oil supply become irradiated. Especially since most of them may suspect Iran is innocent.

Why would they suspect Iran was innocent if real intelligence points to Iran. If Iran actually did it, the evidence would be real and European intelligence agencies would confirm that. They would then immediately throw in with the US and probably contribute forces. China would also support the US action after its intelligence confirms Iran was involved.

Nuclear retaliation would make America appear as a rogue nation and Americans as a bloodthirsty and murderous people.

Not if Iran attacked us first, then the world would support us.

Other nuclear powers might consider pre-emptive strikes on the US. Retaliation or no retaliation, American society might be irreparably split.

Even if the US used nukes and Iran hadn't attacked us, no nuclear power would retaliate on the US, that is nuts. Nobody is committing national suicide over the principals of nuclear control, nobody with a geographical footprint to bomb will ever nuke the US.

And our society would not be split if Iran actually had attacked us. Pacifists would object peacefully and the rest of the country would cheer on the bombs.

And if Iran actually attacked us, the world would be lining up to congratulate us. Nobody likes Iran and if they provoked the attack nobody would oppose it.

But I’ve been wrong before……..What do you think?

I think Iran would have nothing whatsoever to gain from attacking us and everything to lose. Iran is not run by comic book supervillians, it is run by powerful men who are intensely interested in retaining thier power. They arent suicide bombers and never will be, and that is what attacking the US would be, a suicide attack.