Reply #34: Possibly... but I wouldn't read too much into this poll [View All]

[aaronnyc]

Right now, all Pennsylvania voters know about Lynn Swann is that he is a somewhat personable, former pro-bowl wide receiver who helped lead their Pittsburgh Steelers to 4 Super Bowl titles. Additionally, he is able to take a sizable chunk of the black vote away from Rendell.

However, once voters become a little more familiar with Swann - the candidate - they will cease to see him simply as a football hero, and begin to see as just another politician. While lack of experience could be beneficial for Swann if he runs a near flawless campaign, it is more likely that he will make a few gaffes, or prove himself not to have the personality or political expertise needed to run a successful campaign; any mistake which Swann makes is likely to be magnified, as it will serve to reinforce the idea that he is simply a jock with no political experience. Furthermore, as soon as black voters see Swann cozying up with white GOP leaders - they will cease to see him as one of their own, and will instead view him as another black celebrity who turned their back on the community as soon as they got rich.

Celebrity candidates are usually successful when the incumbent is very unpopular, and voters are fed up with "politics as usual" and seeking an outsider candidate This is not the case in Pennsylvania, where Ed Rendell is mildly popular. So, unless Swann proves himself to be a natural politic an, I think that Rendell should be able to hold on to the governorship.