Reply #1: El Niño and the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) [View All]

[rabs]

There was a thread on LBN couple/three days ago about electricial power and potable water shortages in Venezuela. The usual anti-Chavez suspects showed up, of course pinning the blame on Hugo.

What they do not know is WHY there is a drought and subsequent electrical and water shortages.

The answer is (and Chavez hardly could have done anything about it) that there has been a convergence of El Niño warming and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the Pacific off the South American coast. The QBO affects the the tropical easterlies and westerlies that bring clouds and precipitation to the equatorial and Southern Hemisphere regions.

Below an article (in Spanish) published a few days ago in Venezuela. Have translated some of the main points for non-Spanish language readers.

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Water levels in Venezuelan hydroelectric dams are at 40-year lows.

-- Rainfall by Nov. 2009 was 30 percent below the average of recent years, resulting in the most severe drought in four decades. Even before the drought, rivers and dams in Venezuela were already low and the situation generated alarm in the government.

-- The convergence of El Niño and the QBO has caused severe drought in some countries and torrential downpours in others.

--Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and Costa Rica in the past year have seen drought and wildfires.

--In Bolivia, torrential downpours; Guyana, extreme drought, the Sertao of Brazil, drought and fires.

--Paraguay, torrential rains and flooding, as in Uruguay and Argentina.

--Ecuador, heavy rains and mudslides, also in the normally bone-dry region of northern Peru. Macchu Picchu last week was hit by flooding that stranded a lot of foreign tourists.

--Chile, an excess of rain the length of the country.

--Venezuela and Colombia, severe lack of rainfall.

--The Venezuelan government has implemented emergency, preventive measures because the El Guri dam, which provides 70 percent of Venezuela's electricity, has lost 27 feet of water since this past September. The Uribante and Caparo dams that provide power to western Venezuela are at minimum levels.

--In Caracas and other cities, a plan has been put into effect that rations potable water and energy.

--At the beginning of this year, the situation was described as "extremely grave," which is why the rationing has been implemented.

--Two power-generating plants are expected to be up and running by the end of this year. They and other smaller plants are designed to provide about 2,055 megawatts, which would make up the shortfall from the Guri dam, at least for the short term.

More here in Spanish:

http://www.abn.info.ve/noticia.php?articulo=215884&lee=10