Reply #2: Sorry, Folks, But The Thaw Ain't Likely To Come From Florida [View All]

[Vogon_Glory]

Sorry, folks, but the more I think about it, the more I think that the political impetus for a thaw in US--Cuba political thaw is likely to come from outside Florida than from within it.

I suspect that those hard-line legislators' agenda could be around for years. I don't know the current composition of the Florida legislature, but as long as the majority of the Florida legislature is in Republican hands, the hard-liners are going to be dictating Florida's policies towards its island neighbor. Floridians are likely to be stuck with those solons' antics for years--unless the Florida Republican Party loses a lot of clout. Even if the majority of Cuban emigres and Cuban-descended folk decide that they're sick and tired of the hard-liners' policies, those solons will still be calling the shots as far as Florida--Cuba relations are concerned, especially if they live in safely-Republican districts where non-Cuban voters are willing to put up with anti-Havana histrionics as long as those state reps and state senators toe the Republican line in other areas. As long as they're an important voting block in the GOP, they'll be needed by other Florida Republicans.

I think that the rest of the country is getting tired of the hard-liners' taxpayer-subsidized vendetta with the current Havana regime. Even here in Texas, a woefully-governed and Republican-dominated state, bashing the post-1959 Cuban regime isn't likely to rouse too many GOPsters and hard-line "Amurrican" conservatives. I doubt it's because of our enlightened political consciousness; I suspect it's more because a lot of right-wingers who think like "bidnessmen" have quietly concluded that the hard-liners' campaign against Havana is a bigger loser than selling buckboard wagons to status-conscious Dallas suburbanites, and that they see dollar signs when they think of agricultural and farm equipment sales and Cuba at the same time.

I also suspect that Texans across the spectrum are also thinking that the travel restrictions are an infringement on our freedoms, and everybody except the remaining hard-core cosmic Commie killers wonders if the restrictions have proven to be a dud.

I suspect that greed and the rest of the country's boredom with the hard-liners' never-ending battle with Fidel are probably going to do as much as anything to thaw out US--Cuba relations.