Reply #26: that is not an inaccuratelassessment ... [View All]

[Cosmocat]

Rs are red hot, no doubt ... You are also right that we are bleeding some independents ...

However, we still hold a larger margin of potential voters, and there is a marked over estimation of how "depressed" the Ds are ... There also is no consideration of GOTV ...

Someone had a post in this string that notes the MSMs LONG history over the decade where they have drummed up utter bullspit on behalf of the Rs ... This has been trumped up for FAR too long, they have been calling this election in mass since pretty much the day after the 08 elections ...

We will see, but there just is a real sense that the narrative is driving the "analysis." These fruckwads WANT this to be the way it is so bad, it just is clear ...

I have always said the Rs were going to push back hard here, and there is no debating they are going make big gains ... But, there is a lot that lies between 25-30 seats in the house and 50-60 ...

Again, the Dems had something like a 52 to 47 margin in 06 to get 31 seats ... What they are predicting would take like a 54 to 45 or worse turnout ...

It is not going to be THAT bad ...