STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 19 November

[ozymandius]

Friday November 19, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 62 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 343 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 32 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1093
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 18, 2004

Dow... 10,572.55 +22.98 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq... 2,104.28 +4.60 (+0.22%)
S&P 500... 1,183.55 +1.61 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.12% -0.03 (-0.65%)
Gold future... 442.90 -2.20 (-0.50%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[Brundle_Fly]

1. holy shit!

My Apple stock is at $55+

I bought in jan. 2002 or 2003 for $12

whooohhooo, selling!

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.38 Change -0.31 (-0.37%)

Russia Announces Decision To Increase Euro Reserve Holdings

http://www.dailyfx.com/article_daily_fundamentals_111804.html

EURUSD

Profit taking ahead of tomorrow's speech on the euro by Greenspan, Trichet and Iwata has brought the euro back below 1.30 against the US dollar. The price action is very interesting considering the significance of the news released earlier this morning. The Russian central bank said that the fall in the dollar has forced them to consider diversifying their reserve holdings. Increasing trade with Europe also gives further justification for this shift. The central bank currently holds 60% of their reserves in dollars and 30% in euros. They now plan on changing that composition to 60% euros and 30% dollars. Russia's current reserve holdings are approximately USD113 billion. Therefore the shift in reserve composition will clearly be a sizeable amount. This should be fairly bearish for the dollar and bullish for the euro as Russia's decision could set a precedent for future reserve reallocations by other central banks around the world. There already has been talk of Japan and China also possibly diversifying their holdings to include more euros. This could have massive ramifications for the FX markets. Meanwhile the Italians appear to be very concerned about euro strength. If you recall, they were one of the first to call for intervention. Today, Italian Deputy Minister Urso said that he wants to see the EURUSD between 1.05 and 1.10 and that it is currently beyond their threshold of alarm at 1.30. Today's modest retracement should provide the Italian government with minimal comfort.

USDCHF

This week, we have seen a massive decoupling of the relationship between US data and the US dollar. The dollar sold off earlier this week despite stronger Treasury International Capital flow data and CPI. Today, the dollar rallied on weaker jobless claims, leading indicators and Philly Fed. Leading indicators fell -0.3%, which is the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Although the series of consecutive declines is a bit concerning, it is falling from the summer's elevated levels. The Philly Fed index retraced from 28.5 to 20.70. Although the decline was driven by weaker new orders and prices paid, the overall release was not that bad given the improvement in the employment component and the significant jump in the expectations component of the report (from 27.6 to 52.1). Meanwhile across the Atlantic, we are hearing conflicting comments from the Swiss National Bank. On Tuesday, SNB President Roth said that there "is no reason to keep the short-term interest rate level so-close to zero." Swiss franc bulls found comfort in the upward trajectory of Swiss interest rates. Today though, SNB Directorate member Hildebrand poured cold water on those same expectations when he said that, "growth was unlikely to accelerate into 2005."

...more...

DAILY CURRENCY ANALYSIS

http://www.forextv.com/FT/Text/ShowStory.jsp?id=1564

Underlying yen strength is likely to continue due to dollar vulnerability and speculation over regional currency gains. There will be market caution as the US dollar approaches the 103.5 level, especially with concerns over the threat of intervention. The yen will gain strongly next week if there are any announcements over a stronger Chinese yuan at the weekend APEC summit. The Bank of Japan is also likely to aim to slow yen gains rather than reverse the trend.

The dollar recovered the 104.0 level in Europe on Thursday, but the US currency was only able to edge back to 104.35 in New York before weakening again.

<snip>

There will be further speculation over Asian currency gains with a particular focus on China. In this context, political comments at the weekend APEC summit will be closely watched, especially with President Bush aiming to speak to discuss the yuan with Chinese officials. There is a small chance that the Chinese will announce a policy change, although more generalised and longer-term comments over market reform is the more likely outcome. Underlying speculation over regional currency gains will continue to offer underlying yen support.

...more...

Forex - Euro steadies below 1.30 usd ahead of G20

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1100859023-9e32d306-15327

LONDON (AFX) - The euro steadied just below the 1.30 usd mark as the markets positioned themselves for this weekend's G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Berlin

Though analysts doubt anything substantive on the dollar's slide will emerge from the meeting, there are concerns that relations between US and European officials will be decidedly frosty

"The build-up to the meeting of the G20 over the coming weekend is laying the foundations for what could prove to be a truly disharmonious affair," said Neil Mellor of the Bank of New York

Ministers have said that foreign exchange will be prominent in this weekend's discussions, even though it does not normally play a major role at meetings of the G20, which brings together the G7 countries and major emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil

The meeting comes in the wake of the dollar hitting a new all-time low against the euro of 1.3074 usd Analysts said the dollar will face further selling pressure if action is not taken to improve the fundamentals driving the dollar's descent, specifically on the US's twin deficits

Michael Klawitter, currency strategist at WestLB, said it will be difficult to reverse the "fundamentally driven trend" in the dollar unless there are meaningful signs that the US administration really plans to reduce its fiscal deficit

...more...

No reports due today.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

7. Dollar extends fall as Fed chief critical of US deficit

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38310.3663495602-827262636&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar extended its drop Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said if the large U.S. current account deficit isn't reduced, it will lead to diminished appetite from foreign investors for the dollar. The euro gained to $1.3064 in the wake of the release of Greenspan's text, compared to $1.3028 before the speech. The shared currency is up 0.9 percent from Thursday and remained just shy of the record high. The dollar was quoted at 103.27 yen compared to 103.61 yen before the speech. The greenback is down 0.9 percent against its Japanese counterpart.

[54anickel]

10. Sheesh, straight drop down to 83.15

Last trade 83.15 Change -0.54 (-0.65%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.11

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-11-19 08:42:28 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

11. Meanspin "achieves" 83.13 for the dollar

Last trade 83.15 Change -0.54 (-0.65%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.13

Last tick: 2004-11-19 08:39:12 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

14. How can the low go up from 83.11 to 83.13? WTF?....n/t

[UpInArms]

19. your post had a timestamp on the dollar that was later

than the one on my post :)

but here's some Meanspin spew for you

Greenspan:deficit means diminished appetite for dollars

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B836CF2CE-8731-470C-B7C4-71F917064465%7D&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The large size of the U.S. current account deficit means that at some point that foreign investors will have less appetite for acquiring dollar assets, said Federal Reserve board chairman Alan Greenspan Friday, in remarks prepared for delivery to a conference on the euro in Frankfurt, Germany. Greenspan said it was impossible to know when the dollar would lose its lustre. Statistics have shown that forecasting exchange rates has a success rate no better than forecasting the outcome of a coin toss, he said. But the U.S. must boost national saving to make adjustment of the current account deficit easier. Reducing the federal budget deficit would be the most effective action that could be taken, the Fed chairman said.

[54anickel]

22. Thanks, thought I was loosin' it! Meanwhile, I take it the markets are

laughing their arses off at Greenspin's spew. Can't ya just hear 'em?

HAHAHA, like Bush is going to do anything to reduce the deficit, every plan he's announced to date will only add to it! HAHAHAHA, guess that means he figures it's going to be reduced by devaluing the buck. He wants to default on the world? No problem, we'll be more than happy to lend a hand. Just doing our patriotic duty! SELL!!!!!!

[54anickel]

20. Bit more on the Greenspin flap

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aBNTR.I.Xu3o&refer=us

snip>

``This is very dollar negative,'' said Mark Austin, head of currency strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. ``The Fed has concluded that the current-account deficit is unsustainable and it would rather have some controlled dollar depreciation now than a dollar crisis at some point later on.''

The dollar's decline began earlier today on speculation finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 economies, who gather today in Berlin, will fail to agree on the need to halt the U.S. currency's slide. Greenspan will attend the meetings.

``The dollar bears could not have hoped for better comments than this,'' said David Mann, a currency strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in London. ``All the comments are very, very negative especially given that Greenspan had been leaving dollar comments to the U.S. Treasury secretary.''

Widening Shortfall

The shortfall in the current account widened to a record $166.2 billion in the second quarter. The gap is equivalent to 5.7 percent of gross domestic product, up from 5.1 percent in the first quarter, meaning the U.S. economy needs to attract about $1.8 billion a day to maintain the value of the dollar, based on Bloomberg calculations. The current account is a measure of trade, services, tourism and investments.

``International investors will eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or, alternatively, seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration risk, elevating the cost of financing the U.S. current account deficit and rendering it increasingly less tenable,'' Greenspan said.

more...

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Jim Willie CB

PUTIN SHAKES THE PETRO-DOLLAR REGIME

Subtle changes are in the wind on the energy front. As much as some people want to regard Russia as a strong American ally, their behavior on several fronts testifies to the contrary. Some truly staggering developments are underway, not adequately reported. Behind the scenes, covered little by the intrepid US press & media, a meeting was convened two weeks ago in the Urals of Russia. European leaders, and OPEC representatives, and Putin quietly are plotting to establish stronger ties between Europe and Russia in their basis for financial transactions. Putin is adroitly offering to install euro pricing of crude oil, which would surely favor Germany and other large EU nations. He strives to obtain geopolitical concessions from EU leaders, namely a more powerful voice for Russia in world politics. (emphasis by Ozymandius)

OPEC appears to be willing and eager to join in new alliances to undermine the US domination from owning the world reserve currency. Enormous consequences follow, which lie completely in US blind spots. A strange contrasting parallel might exist between the United States and Russia, regarding relationships with large energy companies. The USA has evolved into a cooperative collusion with big companies like Halliburton. Russia has broken down into a confrontational situation steeped in confiscation with big companies like Yukos. The USA seems to work constructively with large firms, with governmental support. This is seen in sponsored foreign grain sales, in development of petro-chemical plants, in defense contracts for the military complex, in permissiveness toward software monopolies, in protection of the steel industry, and elsewhere. Russia seems to work in adversarial roles to steal back and forth with their big firms.

-cut-

RUSSIA-EUROPEAN AXIS EVOLVES

The European Union has long objected to the financial hegemony of the United States in its dominance of global commerce and money supply. Nowhere is the battle more bitter than in reaction to the chronic abuse of the USGovt in irresponsible spending disconnected from accountability. Europe has complained for many years about the realized exploitation by the USA in expanding federal spending, domestic tax rate cuts, advocated consumer spending, mortgage finance support, and wartime expeditions. Behind these trends and excesses is the petro-dollar system, whose US$ status as world reserve currency basically means “anything goes.” We have taken advantage of the situation, much like an undisciplined teenager who with impunity wrecks cars, collects traffic violation fines, goes on drunken benders, destroys property, assaults people, and expects the world’s savings account to pay for all the bills and cleanup costs. The analogy might seem off the mark, but not really. Most foreign trade surpluses find their way quickly into the US Treasury market, the Fanny Mae & Freddy Mac mortgage market, and US corporate bonds which finance their retail credit operations. Resentment has grown perhaps to a critical level, where reaction is to be soon expected.

-cut-

CONCLUSION

Observers and analysts alike are focused upon terrorist risk. They should pay greater notice to financial retaliation and grand shifts in its foundational structure. The United States owns tremendous superiority on the military battlefield. Our greatest vulnerability is financial, from the foreign dependence on credit supply, from supply chain import of energy and other commodities, and most of all from the continued acceptance of the petro-dollar system which serves as the foundation of the world monetary system. The petro-dollar is showing cracks, decay, and moss. Rivets are loose on the USDollar manhole cover. Prepare for change. These topics are fully discussed and analyzed in my private newsletter.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

64. Heh-heh, love this little graphic with today's article

Have to admit, I'm just now getting around to reading it. ;-)

[54anickel]

4. Another rumor about Osama's capture was being spread around

yesterday. I saw it in a couple of articles early this morning, but most have been edited out except for this one. Silly.

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=1100789703-9e32d306-33278

Dollar gains back some ground on euro
Thursday, November 18, 2004 2:55:11 PM
http://www.afxpress.com

CHICAGO (AFX) -- The euro fell to just above $1.30 in recent trading, as the currency market used an unsubstantiated rumor of Osama bin Laden's capture to buy back the battered dollar, said analysts at Action Economics. The greenback has stabilized near record euro lows and seven-month yen lows ahead of a weekend meeting of top global finance officials. The euro was last at $1.3004, down 0.3 percent against the dollar compared to Wednesday's U.S. trading. The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 104.33 Japanese yen.

[54anickel]

5. Fed May Be Close to Neutral Rate, Former Official McTeer Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aoC9QG0hIcuU&refer=us

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may be close to an interest rate that doesn't help or hurt economic growth, former Fed Bank of Dallas President Robert D. McTeer Jr. said in an interview. His comments suggest the central bank may need to raise rates fewer times than investors expect.

A so-called neutral rate ``probably is a little bit above 2'' percent given current inflation levels, McTeer said yesterday in Houston. ``If inflation were to start building, then neutral would be a higher number.''

The Fed raised its federal funds rate to 2 percent Nov. 10, the fourth increase this year. Investors parse Fed officials' comments about neutral rates for clues to when they might stop tightening. The estimate by McTeer, who quit the Dallas Fed this month, is lower than the 3 percent to 5 percent range cited by colleagues including Janet Yellen of San Francisco and William Poole of St. Louis in recent comments.

``It's safe to make the inference that at least some people at the Fed would take fewer steps and raise the fed funds rate less than the market is currently anticipating,'' said Kevin Logan, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in New York. ``A lot of people are looking for a fed funds rate of 3 percent by the middle of next year.''

more...

[UpInArms]

6. HahahaHohohohoHehehehe!

His comments suggest the central bank may need to raise rates fewer times than investors expect.

They have jammed themselves on their own petard.

[54anickel]

8. Think he just stepped on Greenspin's toes. How the hell are they going

to "entice" investors to Treasury auctions with low rates on a declining buck? Greenspin wanted everyone to believe he would continue raising rates at a measured pace (regardless of his real intentions).

[Chicago Democrat]

76. You know what? I think the government is LYING to us!!!

Ok Mr Snowjob....I really, really believe that the US wants a strong dollar. Oh yes... Baaah, beeeeehhhh, beeeeehhh!

Moooooooooooooo!

Hey 54, when will the Euro go to 140, anypredictions? I say Dec8,2004, just when the Ohio recount starts.

Wasnt the battle for Falloujeh supposed to last 4 days? Over two weeks now.... Sure glad the Iraqi resistence is "broken".


Oh Bagdad Bob, I miss your honesty.

[ozymandius]

12. Are they relinquishing control to the bond market?

If they fold on the number of times investors expect them to raise interest rates over the next few months, perhaps the market will assume this responsibility. If so, my condolensces go out to Cap'n Sunshine. The bond traders have a tough task ahead to convince buyers of a quality product.

[UpInArms]

18. I'll be curious to see who shows up to buy

Treasurys erase gains, post losses ahead of new supply

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38310.3950448843-827266810&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- After posting modest gains early on, Treasurys have reversed course into negative territory after the government announced a round of U.S. debt auctions, the first of which is slated for later Friday. The benchmark 10-year note was off 9/32 to 100 28/32. Its yield ($TNX) , which moves in reverse of price, climbed to 4.14 percent.

[UpInArms]

28. U.S. Treasuries Fall in New York; 10-Year Yield Rises to 4.14%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ad2Zy7td.5.A&refer=us

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes fell in New York trading following remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that foreign investors will eventually diversify into other currencies or demand higher U.S. interest rates because of the U.S. current account deficit.

The 4 1/4 percent note maturing in November 2014 dropped 3/16, or $1.88 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 29/32 at 9:17 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield rose 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 4.14 percent.

<snip>

The government said today it will auction $24 billion of two- year notes on Nov. 23, the same amount as the last four monthly auctions.

An announcement on the size of the sale was postponed from yesterday because lawmakers had yet to approve an increase in the U.S. debt ceiling. The U.S. Congress late yesterday then approved an $800 billion increase in the nation's $7.384 trillion debt limit, the third increase in the government's borrowing limit since President George W. Bush came to office.

The Senate yesterday also approved raising the debt limit to $8.184 trillion. Without a higher limit, the government lacks authority to issue payments owed to investors in government securities or to beneficiaries of Social Security and other programs.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

33. Treasurys fall amid fresh supply

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAFA91E3E%2DFC99%2D4473%2DA406%2D8FF8A8BC3E76%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - Treasury prices erased earlier gains and turned south as new supply headed to the market, and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke of weaker demand for U.S. assets.

The benchmark 10-year note declined 15/32 to 100 22/32, its yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) raised to 4.17 percent.

The Treasury Department Friday said it would auction $24 billion in 2-year notes on Tuesday, following the sale of $36 billion in 3- and 6-month bills on Monday.

Treasury also said it would sell $24 billion in 4-week bills in the afternoon Friday, making up for Tuesday's delayed offering. Treasury had postponed announcing the size of the auctions pending approval by Congress to raise the nation's debt limit.

Earlier, Treasury prices pulled mildly higher as comments from the Fed's Greenspan filtered into the market. At the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, the Fed chief said the expanding U.S. current account deficit will at some point reduce foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets. Read the full story.

...more...

[54anickel]

9. PART 2: Tequila trap beckons China (long article)

I haven't read part 1 yet - part 2 was depressing enough and makes me feel so ashamed of what this country has been doing to the rest of the world.

I don't believe China is as naieve as the author makes out. Sad thing is I don't know who to root for in this scheme. The US seems to be the bad guys, but do I really want China to come out on top? We are stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea. :shrug:

On edit - No wonder Bush is after the likes of Chavez. They are rocking the boat.

Here are a few snips.

snip>

Derivatives fit the definition of bubbles, being all air and little substance. Warren Buffet calls them, with justification, financial weapons of mass destruction. This invisible supply of virtual liquidity outside the reach of central banks supports an artificial level of asset market value detached from fundamentals. Any abrupt, premature unwinding of these private derivative contracts based on fantasy notional assets will inevitably cause drastic readjustments in asset prices in the real markets.

The pervasive securitization of debt blurs the all-important dividing line between debtor and creditor and allows an economy to borrow from itself, not just against its future, but against its current and less sophisticated debt, not for productive investment but for financial manipulation. The use of less sophisticated debt as collateral for more sophisticated debt has characteristics of a bubble. The broad disaggregating of risk to maximize transactional surplus (profit) ultimately leads to the socialization of risk (transferring unit risk onto systemic risk) while the privatization of the resultant profit remains a sacred prerequisite. The Bank of International Settlement "Lamfalussy Report" defines systemic risk as "the risk that the illiquidity or failure of one institution, and its resulting inability to meet its obligations when due, will lead to the illiquidity or failure of other institutions".

snip>

Under the accounting rules of capitalism, capital cannot exist until ownership is specifically assigned. Thus socialization of capital is a self-contradiction in term and must stay off the balance sheets of the capitalist financial system. To own assets, even a government must act as if it is a corporation, a "legal person". Thus private property and individualization are inseparable. Pension fund assets and other forms of collectively owned assets must adopt the governing characteristics of private capital in order to participate in the economic system. Such assets enjoy no prerogative to invest at less than maximum profit for the common good because in a capitalistic market economy, the ultimate definition of the common good is maximum profit.

Thus employee pension funds will invest for highest returns in companies that ship their members' jobs overseas to low-wage economies. The formula of socialization of risk in support of privatization of profit leads to the hollowing of the center - a classic definition of a systemic bubble. Yet the ownership of debt is largely socialized, dispersed throughout the global financial system, with encouragement of moral hazard, which is the lack of fear for private consequences of financial adventurism. The pleasure of excess is not limited by any excess of pleasure. Golden parachutes are provided free for financial adventurers, paid for by the public as unknowing victims through central-bank-induced inflation.

snip>

It was Bear Stearns chief economist Wayne Angell, a former Fed governor and advisor to then Senate majority leader Bob Dole, who first came up with the idea of using the ESF to prop up the collapsing Mexican peso. Bear Stearns, a Wall Street giant, had significant exposure to peso debts. Senator Robert Bennett, a freshman Republican from Utah, took Angell's proposal to Greenspan and Rubin. Both rejected the idea at first, shocked at the blatant circumvention of constitutional procedures that this strategy represented, which would invite certain reprisal from Congress.

Congress had implicitly rejected a rescue package that January when the initial administration proposal of extending Mexico $40 billion in loan guarantees could not pass. The chairman of the Fed advised Bennett that the idea would only work if Congress's silence could be guaranteed. Bennett went to Dole and convinced him that the whole scam would work if the majority leader would simply block all efforts to bring this use of taxpayers' money to a vote. It would all happen by executive fiat. The next step was to persuade Dole and his counterpart in the House, Speaker Newt Gingrich. They consulted several state governors, notably then Texas governor George W Bush, who enthusiastically endorsed the idea of a bailout to subsidize the border region in his state. Greenspan, who historically opposed bailouts of the private sector for fear of incurring moral hazard, was clearly in a position to stop this one. Instead, he used his considerable power and influence to help the process along when key players balked. Moral hazard infected not only the banking system, but also the political system making a mockery of the constitution. Few in Washington were prepared to be reminded that it was this kind of systemic corruption in the name of the common good that had brought down the Roman Empire.

The peso bailout would lead to a series of similar situations in which influential private financial institutions knowingly got themselves into future trouble in order to maximize their short-term profit, vindicating the moral-hazard principle predicting that market participants will take undue risks in the presence of bailout guarantees. As Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Russia stumbled into financial crisis, culminating in the collapse of hedge fund giant Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), which played key speculative roles in precipitating the crisis by achieving fantastic returns to begin with, Greenspan moved to increase dollar liquidity to support the distressed bond markets. At the helm of LTCM was yet another former member of the Fed board, former vice chairman David Mullins, to plead for help from his former Fed colleagues.

more...

[aneerkoinos]

42. link? n/t

[54anickel]

54. Oops, sorry! Here's the link

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FK06Ad01.html

[JNelson6563]

13. Seems the world is ready to rise up

They see Bush in for another 4 years and are banding together. I can't believe this bunch of Mayberry Machiavellis actually thought they could endlessly bully the world and not suffer reprocussions.

The EU's economy is about equal to ours--about $10 trillion. Teaming up with Russia and Asian countries is very smart of them. I have long believed that the real thing to fear is economic devastation for the US. All these great articles you all post today tell me I'm right.

I feel sorry for all the fools who take a glance at the DOW and think everything is going great.

Take cover Marketeers!

Julie

[ozymandius]

16. Hi Julie.

I sounds like a classic tale of several smaller guys ganging up on one big guy. What do you make of the bond market? Is the Fed throwing up its hands?

EDIT: I have to run out for the day so I'll check for your input later.

[JNelson6563]

43. Treasuries, a wild ride

Looks like money is leaving Treasuries. Yields have moved over 6 basis points already today.

What I find puzzling of late is how the markets AND Treasuries are moving in the same direction. If stocks are up yields are down and when stocks are down, yields are up.

Today follows this recent pattern. Money leaving stocks and Treasuries. Where's it going? I don't know what the hell to make of it and with the dollar losing value but no end in sight for deficit spending I can't see anything but dark days ahead.

Julie-the eternal optimist ;-)

[54anickel]

69. Nothing to worry about. That's just KoKo and I filling our little ziplock

bags and stuffing the matress. :P

[Chicago Democrat]

77. Leaving US investments makes me feel ill....

and unpatriotic and so far much richer. Ok I am asking you, any guesses how soon we see .7 Euro Dollars or 1.40 a euro?

I say 3 weeks,

[JNelson6563]

79. That's as good a guess as any

It may not even take three weeks. It's anybody's guess.

Julie

[54anickel]

80. Heh-heh, not sure when it will happen. Maybe something will come out

of the big pow-wow this week-end to spread the burden more evenly.

I do have what I consider an easy bet with the repug nephew-in-law. That the US$ will not be the sole world reserve currency by Nov 5, 2009. It was 5 years from the night we went for fish-fry after the "election". Told him I wanted payment in non US$ currency or gold. B-)

Hey, even if I loose, the look on his face was absolutely priceless! (Along with most of the other Repukes in that redneck bar we were at!) :evilgrin:

[llmart]

34. Agreed.

As much as I love my country (as it used to be - not as it is now) I do think they need an economic "comeuppance" to knock us off our arrogant pedestal thinking we can't be taken down a peg. I believe the EU has it's sites set on us.

[UpInArms]

15. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures market versus fair value holding quite steady this morning, but the stage remains set for a modestly flat open for the cash market.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Cash market still poised for a flat open as futures indications continue to stall at current levels...

8:26AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Still little enthusiasm seen in the futures market as current indications suggest the cash market will start the day on a relatively flat note... Not much in the way of earnings this morning and no economic data to speak of... However, Greenspan is in Frankfurt, Germany participating in a panel discussion (8:30 ET)regarding the euro.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Futures trade denotes a mixed bias, possibly signaling a flat open for the cash market... Profit taking following what looks to be a fourth straight week of gains for the broader averages could pressure equities throughout the session... Today also marks an options expiration, which could keep trading conditions choppy.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight in quiet trading due to light profit taking as it consolidates just below weekly resistance crossing at 1583. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1553.45 would signal that a short- term top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 0.50 pts. at 1582 as of 5:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) is in a bullish mode and is rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1176.87 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was down 0.50 pts. at 1184 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

17. Upside of a Down Dollar (Blowin' sunshine up the arse)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61083-2004Nov18.html

Let the worry-warts fret about the risks of a plummeting U.S. dollar. At Al-jon Inc., a company in Ottumwa, Iowa, that makes heavy machines for the steel and solid waste industries, the descent of the U.S. currency has business humming.

A weaker dollar means that Al-jon's machines, which weigh as much as 90,000 pounds and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars each, can sell more cheaply in overseas markets. It also forces the company's main German competitor to increase prices on its machines in the U.S. market.

snip>

Although American tourists on overseas vacations may have to pay more for their hotel rooms and souvenirs, and price increases may be in store for imported goods, "what we're seeing at the moment would . . . seem to be just what the doctor ordered," economists at J.P. Morgan Chase told clients yesterday in a report. "After five years of relative misery, U.S. manufacturers are beginning to enjoy significant, sustained market share gains in global markets." Exports of goods rose to a record $70.2 billion in September, 15 percent higher than a year earlier.

snip>

"The market signals have already started to come," said Nouriel Roubini, a New York University economist who is an expert in the crises that have afflicted emerging markets in Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe. Because of the gaping U.S. trade and budget deficits, Roubini wrote on his Web site last week, chances are rising fast for a crash in the dollar that would translate into "financial train wrecks for the U.S. economy in a matter of a couple of years."

snip>

Similar fears were expressed at a recent seminar by John Williamson, a scholar at the Institute for International Economics, who noted that, at around $650 billion, the broadest measure of the U.S. trade deficit is already "larger than any large country has had in the lifetime of any of us." And it appears headed much higher -- from about 5.7 percent of gross domestic product this year to 12 percent of GDP by 2010, by some estimates. Under that scenario foreigners would have to lend Americans much greater sums than they do now to cover the cost of imports, Williamson said, so "it is very difficult to believe that the danger of a crisis doesn't increase as U.S. indebtedness increases."

more sunshine and gloom...

[UpInArms]

21. 9:41 EST markets are open

Dow 10,543.29 -29.26 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,094.74 -9.54 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,180.75 -2.80 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.141% +0.024

NYSE Volume 86,537,000
Nasdaq Volume 203,876,000

[54anickel]

27. 10:09 - no 10:00 bounce yet

Dow 10,508.27 -64.28 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 2,088.40 -15.88 (-0.75%)
S&P 500 1,176.52 -7.03 (-0.59%)
10-yr Bond 4.124% +0.007
30-yr Bond 4.813% 0.00
NYSE Volume 242,479,000
Nasdaq Volume 436,933,000

10:05AM: Equities continue to trade below the unchanged mark as market internals show a negative bias... While today's trade does not have many catalysts from an earnings or economic perspective, it does have one influential catalyst in the form of an options expiration... Stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options will all expire today, unless traders elect to let contracts roll forward or close their positions... This generally results in choppy trading conditions and higher than usual volumes for a Friday...NYSE Adv/Dec 1047/1589, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 835/1667

9:45AM: Major indices move slightly lower at the open as buyers remain generally reluctant in light of the huge gains observed over the last four weeks... The Dow has shown some modest weakness out of the blocks following its 8.44% run since touching its 2004 low back in October... Profit taking has also strained the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in the early going, as the former has still hovered near 52-week highs while the latter closed yesterday at its best level in about 10 months...

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1057 (35%) 844 (31%)
Declines 1698 (57%) 1716 (63%)
Unchanged 204 (6%) 162 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 46 (30%) 150 (44%)
Down Vol* 103 (68%) 182 (54%)
Unch. Vol* 2 (1%) 4 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 67 54
New Lo's 6 8

[UpInArms]

29. dollar still dumpster-diving

Last trade 83.15 Change -0.54 (-0.65%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.10

Last tick: 2004-11-19 09:43:21 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

32. Pass the Dramamine, please. Gee, it was just at 83.32 about 1/2 hour ago!

What a roller-coaster ride.

[UpInArms]

36. and if any central bank attempts to

intervene and buy dollars, someone else will take that as a selling opportunity and dump them -

It's going to get mighty hairy, Mr. Bishop (from The Mechanic/Bronson)

[54anickel]

38. Another pushme-pullme kind of day?

[54anickel]

40. Heh-heh, look - ain't that special! They made a Dubya on the chart

Last trade 83.30 Change -0.39 (-0.47%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.10


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

[UpInArms]

46. Hehe - that "selling" opportunity for someone else (83.16)

Last trade 83.16 Change -0.53 (-0.63%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.10

Last tick: 2004-11-19 10:30:44 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

51. Dollar plunges to record euro low; 4 1/2-year yen low

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38310.4746584491-827275695&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar's slide gathered momentum Friday, driving the U.S. currency to a fresh record low against the euro and its weakest yen value since late March 2000. At last check, the dollar was at 102.94 yen, down more than 1 percent on the day. It fell as low as 102.76 yen. The euro was quoted at $1.3057, up 0.9 percent from Thursday and was as high as $1.3066. The dollar's latest move was started when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan expressed concern for the record U.S. current account deficit. Greenspan later said that currency market intervention is not a long-term fix. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said at the same event as Greenspan that he stands by his previous comments calling the euro's gain "brutal."

[UpInArms]

31. 10:18 EST and sliding deeper into the red

Dow 10,491.79 -80.76 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,084.37 -19.91 (-0.95%)
S&P 500 1,173.46 -10.09 (-0.85%)
10-Yr Bond 4.140% +0.023

NYSE Volume 289,655,000
Nasdaq Volume 506,796,000

[54anickel]

37. DOW came to within 3 pts of being down by 100, and suddenly started to

recoup.

Change: 86.53 (0.82%)
Prev Close: 10,572.55
Open: 10,571.63
Day's Range: 10,474.94 - 10,573.74

[UpInArms]

39. 10;44 EST markets, (interesting) blather and the buck

Dow 10,492.30 -80.25 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,086.11 -18.17 (-0.86%)
S&P 500 1,174.21 -9.34 (-0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 4.197% +0.080

NYSE Volume 408,286,000
Nasdaq Volume 663,649,000

10:35AM: The market extends its losses in the early going as key sectors fall through support levels.. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has fallen below its 200-day simple moving average as investors remain concerned about the index's somewhat overextended bias... Adding fuel to the selling frenzy has been a Goldman Sachs downgrade of the Semiconductor Equipment industry to Cautious from Neutral on expectations that stocks will make new cycle lows, driven by continued disappointing fundamentals over the next several quarters and excess manufacturing capacity concerns...

The only sector catching a bid at this point is energy, which has taken advantage of a rebound in the December crude oil futures contract ($46.85/bbl +0.63)... SOX -1.70, NYSE Adv/Dec 1005/1873, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 793 /1903

Oops! Did someone turn the lights on?

dollar:

Last trade 83.30 Change -0.39 (-0.47%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.10

Last tick: 2004-11-19 10:16:00 ET
30-min delayed quote.

(did the UK come to the rescue ;) )

[UpInArms]

48. 11:16 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,476.79 -95.76 (-0.91%)
Nasdaq 2,079.16 -25.12 (-1.19%)
S&P 500 1,172.16 -11.39 (-0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 4.202% +0.085

NYSE Volume 532,728,000
Nasdaq Volume 848,288,000

11:05AM: The market remains on a course of new session lows as investors digest Greenspan's comments... Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan, while at a conference in Germany to discuss the euro, has said those not hedged for higher rates should be prepared to lose money... This is one of the FOMC Chair's most direct comments about the direction of interest rates, and it has caused intense selling in both equities and treasuries...

The 10-year note has dropped 21 ticks to yield 4.19%, while the dollar has also extended its losses on Greenspan's comment that "currency interventions have had only moderate effects in the past"...NYSE Adv/Dec 848/2141, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 800/1990

Last trade 83.14 Change -0.55 (-0.66%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.10

Last tick: 2004-11-19 10:46:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Looks like a game of "hot potato" if you ask me :eyes:

[54anickel]

23. U.S. stocks lose ground on concern over sliding dollar

Oh sure. NOW they're concerned. What about all that hubb-bubb about a low buck being great for profits, huh? :eyes:

Maybe now that the precious might be in jeopardy, Shrub will be forced to wake up and take notice - NAH!

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041119/fe27676ded822734842bd05bbafd518c_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks lost ground Friday on increasing investor concern over the negative impact of a weakening dollar on the U.S. economy.

Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan's remarks that the large size of the U.S. current account deficit could reduce foreign investor appetite for acquiring dollar-denominated assets, did little to assuage those worries.

But Alan, what about the markets? Ain't that what the Mrs said in trying to get Kerry to concede? :puke:

snip>

Many participants think that hedge funds, which had pushed up the crude oil futures in New York, are now lending support to the dollar's decline, said Masatoshi Nishi, chief manager of the treasury and securities division at Saitama Resona Bank in Tokyo.

Oil prices moved higher in early trade. Crude for December delivery ended up 33 cents at $46.55 in electronic trading.

[trogdor]

24. Boy, Oliphant sure likes to make fun of Condi Rice.

Has her down cold, he has. </yoda>

[UpInArms]

25. Gold futures climb above $446

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38310.4150625231-827269019&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures climbed above $446 an ounce Friday morning for the first time since mid-1988 as comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on the size of the U.S. deficit fueled a drop in the dollar. December gold traded as high as $446.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an intraday level not seen since July 1988. It was last at 446.20, up $3.30. Mining shares are also higher, with the CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) up 0.8 percent.

[54anickel]

30. Heh, couldn't ask for a better time to be introducing the 2 new ETFs

in gold, get 'em buying at the high end of the channel. I smell the makings of a bit of a suckers rally on the short-term again. Have to see what next week brings. B-)

[54anickel]

52. Just How Precious Will Gold Get?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_47/b3909141_mz020.htm

Demand is high, supply is scarce, and a weak greenback is hoisting its price

Gold is finally getting some respect. Four years ago, when it began a steady upward march, only the hardiest gold bug believed in the glittery metal. But now, after a 75% climb since early 2001, gold is topping $435 an ounce, a level not seen since 1988, and the naysayers have gone to ground. "We're in a secular bull market in commodities," says Frank E. Holmes, chief executive of U.S. Global Investors Inc. (GROW ), a mutual-fund company that's bullish on the metal. "Nobody believed oil could go to $50 a barrel. So why can't gold go to $500 an ounce?"

The fever is so intense that new competitors are vying to grab business from New York and London, traditional centers of the gold trade. Last month, the Chicago Board of Trade began offering standard 100-ounce gold futures contracts. Dubai plans to open a gold & commodity exchange next year.

Certainly, the stars seem aligned for gold. For one, the Bush Administration apparently doesn't mind a steady decline in the dollar to goose U.S. exports. Gold and the dollar traditionally move in opposite directions. The past few years have been no exception: Since early 2002, the greenback has fallen 25% against a basket of other currencies, vs. a 56% rise in gold.

snip>

Of course, gold's joy ride won't last indefinitely. Inflation still appears to be under control. Federal Reserve rate hikes in the months ahead could boost the dollar. And demand for gold might slip if global growth eases. Says Mark M. Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com Inc., a consulting firm in West Chester, Pa.: "The bottom line is that gold prices are tilted higher, but they're not going to take off." For now, the world's gold bugs are betting he's wrong.

more...

Hey, I think I found Frodo! B-)

[54anickel]

67. It's Over

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/nov192004.html

While the US dollar has already declined 35% against the euro in the past four years, the main event has not yet occurred. The euro was just the opening act.

snip>

In September Japan actually reduced its Treasury position by 1.5 billion dollars. It was the fist time in two years that Japan sold more US Treasuries than it bought.

I’ve often been asked how long I thought Japan and China would continue to support the dollar. Well, it seems that we now know the answer: until March 2004. With Japanese support for the dollar waning, it won’t be long before China lets the renminbi float and other South East Asian countries start concerning themselves with issues other than competitive devaluations against the dollar.

For a while now the US has been pressuring China to let its currency float, a move that is widely anticipated to lead to a stronger renminbi against the dollar. This must rank as one of the dumbest things I have seen the US do in recent times.

Calling for a stronger renminbi is, by definition, calling for a weaker US dollar. However, US Treasury Secretary John Snow said in London, just this week, that “Nobody has ever devalued their way to prosperity.” I guess the US Administration feels that the US is already so prosperous that it could afford to pursue a weaker dollar, even though its official policy is one of a strong dollar. If that sentence confuses you, don’t worry, it seems to confuse John Snow as well.

snip>

According to The Conference Board Inc., a private economic research group, the outlook for the US economy further weakened in September. This is the fifth straight decline in economic leading indicators. With such a bleak outlook for the US economy it’s going to be tough to replace decreased Chinese and Japanese appetite for US bonds with private purchases.

more...

[barb162]

84. scary although I have been thinking this way for months. I also

think we are headed to a depression or a very strong recession.

[54anickel]

26. Global: Why the World Needs a Weaker Dollar (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041119-fri.html#anchor0

snip>

The flip-side of America’s consumption binge is an overhang of excess saving elsewhere in the world. This shows up mainly in the form of sluggish consumption growth and current-account surpluses in Asia (especially Japan, China, and Korea), Europe, and the Middle East. For now, America draws freely on this reservoir — currently absorbing about 80% of the world’s surplus saving by attracting an average of about $2.6 billion of capital inflows from abroad per working day. Not only has the United States turned increasingly to offshore production platforms and labor markets in recent years, it is now outsourcing its saving, as well.

This is a highly unstable arrangement. For starters, America’s current-account deficit seems set to widen further over the next few years, moving into the 6.5% to 7.0% vicinity by late 2005 or early 2006. As such, the US will be asking more and more of its global financiers to fund budget deficits and excess consumption. That may be asking too much. Private overseas investors have already turned skittish in providing capital to the US, leaving overseas central banks to fill the void. Over the 12 months ending September 2004, foreign monetary authorities have accounted for 28% of total net foreign purchases of long-term US securities — nearly double the 15% share of the prior 12-month period.

The day will come when foreign investors simply say “no” to this arrangement — refusing to fund America’s consumption binge without getting a meaningful concession on the terms of financing. That’s when the dollar collapses, US interest rates soar, and the stock market plunges. Under such a crisis scenario, a US recession would be all but inevitable. And a US-centric global economy would undoubtedly be quick to follow. Unfortunately, with America’s current-account deficit now in the danger zone, that day of reckoning could well come sooner rather than later.

The only way to avoid this wrenching endgame is for the world’s major central banks to move preemptively on the dollar, carefully managing a gradual but significant depreciation over the next several years.

Bwahahahaha, but are they willing to step in a carefully manage that depreciation - once again aiding and abetting the US to default on what we owe them? Especially with the little tyrant at the helm?

There are several advantages of such an approach:

[54anickel]

35. Weak dollar also has disadvantages for US: Eichel

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=3&u=/afp/20041119/bs_afp/germany_economy_forex_041119111154

And Eichel reiterated his call for Europe, the US and Japan to reach a common solution on the exchange rate problem.

"Within the triad, ie. Japan, America and Europe, we'll have to sit down together and try to reach a common solution," Eichel said.

"But that is a matter that is not for the public. Exchange rates are not discussed in public," he said.

snip>

"If the dollar is cheaper against the euro, then that means of course that oil is not as expensive for us as it appears to be on the world market," he said.

snip>

"Overall, the risks have increased for the global economy next year as a result of oil prices and exchange rate developments," the state secretary said.

Hmmmm, hinting at sliding over to petro-euros? Surely the US will be expected to give something in return if there is to be co-operation in bring down the buck gradually.

[aneerkoinos]

74. US-centric global economy?

Gladly, world economy is decreasingly unipolar and increasingly multipolar, growing less and less dependent of US market.

EU trade with emerging markets grows faster than that of US, EU is biggest trade partner with Mercosur, India and now also with China. Likewise, China is growing less dependent of US market.

I think what is really killing US, besides getting too comfy and arrogant, is that excessive military consumption is eating best human resources, creative power and other resources away from manufacturing potential.

[54anickel]

75. Hi Aneerkoinos!

Yep, I hear ya. We're headed to a fascist, military-industrial complex. Feel rather helpless, just sitting here and watching it happen. I'm hoping we all wake up and take to the streets soon to attempt to take back our country before it's too late. Perhaps the world might take pity and go easy on us if we revolt rather than allow BoooshCo to take us down the proverbial toilet.

[54anickel]

41. Argentina recognises China as a ‘market economy’

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7d28587e-39bf-11d9-b822-00000e2511c8.html

Argentina confirmed on Thursday that it would grant China the status of market economy, making it harder to impose anti-dumping measures on cheap Chinese imports.

The decision follows a two-day visit to Buenos Aires by Hu Jintao, China's president, in which the two countries signed letters of intent that could lead Chinese companies to invest nearly $20bn (€15bn, £11bn) in Argentina over the next decade. Chile, the host of this year's Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) summit, is widely expected to follow Argentina. Brazil granted China market-economy status last Friday.

Alberto Fernández, the cabinet chief, said China had agreed to increase imports from Argentina by at least $4bn over the next five years. “This agreement favours Argentina's development,” he said.

He also tried to calm fears that the move could harm local industries, particularly the makers of shoes, textiles and toys, unable to compete with the emerging Asian superpower. “This does not amount to an indiscriminate opening up of the economy,” he said. “Argentine industry continues to have safeguards. The government knows how to identify the sensitive sectors.”

Yet Argentine industrialists on Thursday argued that they could not understand how the government could guarantee protection for their products. Non-recognition of market- economy status has meant that Argentina has until now been able to apply anti-dumping safeguards on Chinese imports almost indiscriminately.

more...

[htuttle]

44. So THAT's what $1 = 103 yen looks like

Pretty grim.

[54anickel]

45. Pension safety net’s ‘$78bn hole’

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/cc5c17b0-39a0-11d9-b822-00000e2511c8.html

The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, a government-sponsored safety net, will require a $78bn cash injection next year unless Congress changes the way companies run their pension schemes, according to a new analysis.

The Center on Federal Financial Institutions, a Washington think-tank which studies US government guarantee programmes, has concluded that the hole could be as big as $100bn, if all “legacy” airlines become insolvent and collapse their pension liabilities into the PBGC.

Without greater government support, the fund risks running out of money by 2021, the study warns.

snip>

That number, and the dire outlook unveiled on Thursday, are likely to raise pressure on Congress to force companies to add more cash to pension schemes or else to reduce the level of benefits the PBGC insures.

Last year, Congress considered but rejected tougher funding standards under pressure from employers' lobbyists, particularly in the airline and auto industries, which argued that such a move would destroy jobs. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

47. Foreigners pulling $$$$ from US markets

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B289D0AAF%2D43D3%2D427B%2D8B3A%2D52DE0ECD30B6%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

With the U.S. dollar sagging, investors also sank more than $2 billion into mutual funds that invest in international stocks. Net inflows of $2.1 billion this week pushed the weekly average over the past month to $1.6 billion, the highest levels since mid-January.

While U.S. fund investors are upbeat on the stock market, foreign investors are moving in the opposite direction. The latest data show overseas investors pulled nearly $4 billion from funds investing in U.S. securities in September.

Year-to-date through Nov. 18, the broad international MSCI EAFE stock index is up 14 percent.

So far, foreign investors have withdrawn $2.2 billion year-to-date through September. If the trend continues, it will mark the first year of net selling since 1992, McManus said.

...more at link...

[54anickel]

49. Heh-heh! What does Mogambo call them -

stupid foreigners that keep buying our "stuff"! Not so stoooopid as American investors though.

[newportdadde]

50. everbank as a vessel for investing in foreign currency.

Just curious if anyone has used everbank and if they would recommend them for 6 month or 1 year CD method of investing in a foreign currency. Coupled with some good interest rate payouts and the devaluing dollar they are starting to look appealing to me.

[54anickel]

60. I've not used them, but I have seen them mentioned here on DU quite

often in the past couple of weeks. The folks in the economic issues forum may be more helpful.

You can find the Economy, Budget, Taxes & Jobs forum within the Politics & Issues forum folder.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=114

[elsiesummers]

72. I have 3mo cds in Aussie, NZ and Pound

We roll the CDs over every three months. Originally purchased at a local top last winter, so now we are up but not a lot. I really wanted to purchase the CDs when the euro was 1.14, (around August/September 2003) but had to wait until we sold our house, so we took a hit during the time when the dollar did its bear rally.

My own opinion - not investment advice though: I think the thing is to try to purchase them at a point when there is not a local top - which you can get from reading, etc. I think that the current focus on the downside of the dollar, in the press, and by Snow and Greenspan, might induce a local top, but that is just a guess - because perhaps there won't be a short term reversal of the bear market trend in the dollar and you'll wish you were in earlier - who knows? These things are so unpredictable and I don't want you to take this as market advice.

Just read and observe all you can for a period of time before you make the decision, if you want to purchase during a buying opportunity (not a local bottom of the dollar). (edited: content - changed top to bottom).

Also, would recommend, if you are thinking of getting everbank world market cds, reading "the daily pfennig" by Chuck Butler, which you can sign up for as email at Everbank.com or can read at www.dailypfennig.com. He often points out times when he thinks there is a buying opportunity in a particular currency. I also reccomend reading John Mauldin at www.frontlinethoughts.com, reading Stephen Roach, and, conversely paying attention to any dollar bull analysts (like Andy Xie/Morgan Stanley) so you aren't getting just one side of the story.

There is a .75% currency exchange rate on the way in and the way out, so you need to subtract 1.5% from the actual return of the cds. This is the reason I personally decided not to buy yen - although I don't know that I made a wise decision on this - because even with zero interest and 1.5% fees, if the currency strengthens enough I've still made a bad call. Just my own decision - I like the higher interest rate currencies because appreciation against the dollar becomes less important. The fees, along with the assumption that the dollar bear trend is long term, make me view Everbank cds, regardless of duration (because you can roll the cds over, no charge) as an intermediate to long term investment.

I'm no expert. I personally like the liquidity of the 3mo cds - but that's just me - because we tend to live a transient life so I like cash available for things like moving or just paying down a mortgage - even though I view the investment as longish term.

I think my own portfolio is pretty much all hedged or cash and underdiversified on stocks, especially think I need more international stocks - but I'm having a hard time making long term investment decisions in the current US stock market climate and possible US real estate bubble.

I think you really have to make your decisions based on your own financial situation - sometimes the best financial decision is basic but unexciting - like paying down a mortgage.

[barb162]

82. interesting

I just pulled my stock stuff last week and put it in cash. Am trying to figure what to do. I think I see a stock crash coming somewhere along the line. I want to be in foreign cash I think. I see no hope for the dollar, ie the deficit, the war....

[JNelson6563]

53. 11:28 Update

Dow 10,481.15 -91.40 (-0.86%)
Nasdaq 2,080.18 -24.10 (-1.15%)
S&P 500 1,172.64 -10.91 (-0.92%)
10-Yr Bond 4.186% +0.069

Money going out but not coming in. Hmmm. But my oh my, just look at gold go! ;-)

Julie

[UpInArms]

55. looks like Frodo failed

:D

[54anickel]

58. Tee-hee! Nice pic ;^)

[MrUnderhill]

71. And I tried and I tried!

Sorry to everyone!

Maybe I can send a picture to that "sorryworld" website?

[54anickel]

85. Well, you could try that for starters, but I don't think it's gonna do

much good in the currency pits. :evilgrin:

[JNelson6563]

73. haha Yeah, looks that way

Poor Frodo. ;-)

[UpInArms]

56. 12:01 EST numbers (DOW -100) and buck (83.06)

Dow 10,471.84 -100.71 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 2,079.09 -25.19 (-1.20%)
S&P 500 1,172.57 -10.98 (-0.93%)
10-Yr Bond 4.196% +0.079

NYSE Volume 668,819,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,020,901,000

dollar

Last trade 83.06 Change -0.63 (-0.75%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.06

Last tick: 2004-11-19 11:29:09 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

57. adding blather

12:05PM: Stocks open the trading day flat but quickly gave way to broad-based selling pressure... Profit taking has been a general catalyst following several weeks of gains... The selling in technology, which has been the most pronounced, has been sparked by a Goldman Sachs downgrade of the semiconductor equipment sector... The move has knocked the SOX index down more than 2% and through key technical support levels... Fed Chairman Greenspan's comments at a conference in Germany have also contributed to the bearish bias...

Greenspan said that investors need to be hedged for higher interest rates, adding to worries about continued Fed tightening in the new year... His words have also sent the bond market on a downward spiral... Finally, an early surge in the December crude oil contract (beyond the $48/bbl), has given equity traders one more reason to reduce exposure... Consequentially, every industry group (tech, retail, health care, industrial, transportation) has traded lower today, except for energy, which has found a bid on the crude oil bounce... Today's options expiration has also contributed to the somewhat volatile action today...NYSE Adv/Dec 885/2236, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 788/2115

[54anickel]

59. Here's Greenspin's quote regarding higher interest rates

``Rising interest rates have been advertised for so long and in so many places that anyone who has not appropriately hedged this position by now obviously is desirous of losing money,'' Greenspan said.


That's the way to calm the markets Greenspin! And I thought his irrational exuberance statement was bad. So, when did the little lying sack decide to be more forthright and truthful? I mean, it's too late to save his legacy as the greatest thing since sliced bread in most circles.

Oops, here's the link for the quote

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a_wbtOyNa07I&refer=us

[UpInArms]

62. dollar "achieved" a low of 83.01

Last trade 83.07 Change -0.62 (-0.74%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.01

Last tick: 2004-11-19 11:56:15 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

61. Ewww, I see it's achieved an new low of 83.01 in the mean time.

Last trade 83.09 Change -0.60 (-0.72%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.01

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-11-19 11:56:15 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

63. methinks we might start a wee bit early today

and perhaps find a well-stocked bar to hide in for a while

[54anickel]

66. Ahhh, thanks! I needed that little pause that refreshes. These

"simulposts" seem to come at just the right time of day lately. I like the move up from the old "Owe me a Coke" jinx.

[Renew Deal]

65. Watch the price of gold.

I read somewhere that if the price of gold goes over $450, watch out!

[54anickel]

68. I've seen projections like that too, although technical analysis of price

points alone are not always indicative of future moves. The one thing I agree with Paul van Eeden on is the fall of the dollar at the same time as interest rates rise (bonds fall). The markets seem fairly confused these days, looking for a place to hide. Stocks and gold up at the same time? Bonds and stocks up at the same time? Just a lot of strange movements these days. Some is probably caused by so much hedge fund money trying to unwind.

These are interesting times, and a great time to be a watcher, scary time to be an investor.

[aneerkoinos]

78. The gold number to watch

is 350 euros (currently 340), which seems to be the hard ceiling that triggers lot of selling from central banks, very rugged defence. If gold takes that defencive line, breaks tie with euro and shoots up independently, I'd say it is a sign of world economy in bad turmoil.

[54anickel]

86. Thanks Aneerkoinos. I haven't been watching the price in euros as

closely, since it just didn't seem to be going anywhere for quite a while. It was rising a little bit, steadily but slowly, back when I was paying attention.

[54anickel]

70. 1:49 numbers

Dow 10,460.16 -112.39 (-1.06%)
Nasdaq 2,076.39 -27.89 (-1.33%)
S&P 500 1,171.76 -11.79 (-1.00%)
10-yr Bond 4.205% +0.088
30-yr Bond 4.883% +0.07
NYSE Volume 943,918,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,369,888,000

ADVERTISEMENT


1:30PM: The market pares its losses some but the negative sentiment remains intact... On a positive note, however, at least for investors in shares of Mylan Labs (MYL 18.87 +1.71) has been breaking news from investor Carl Icahn... Icahn, whose 9.8% interest in Mylan's stock makes him the largest shareholder, announced that he is now willing to buy the generic drug maker outright for $20 a share, which equates to a nearly 12% premium from current levels...
Mylan has been in talks to acquire rival King Pharamaceuticals (KG 10.83 -0.37) since last July for approximately $4.0 bln, a move widely opposed by Icahn who has been trying to derail the King deal altogether...NYSE Adv/Dec 956/2292, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 940/2070

1:00PM: Sellers continue to dig in their heels as the indices remain near the worst levels... Breadth figures still suggest a bearish bias in afternoon trading, as decliners have held a more than 2 to 1 edge over advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq... Sector participation, driven by technology and financial -- which represent more than 30% of the S&P 500 -- has been strong in the pullback, helping to explain why the broader averages have continued to trudge along in negative territory...

Notable laggards in technology have been Cisco Systems (CSCO -2.20%), Texas Instruments (TXN -2.01%) and Intel (INTC -1.53%) while brokerage firms exhibiting weakness have been Goldman Sachs (GS -2.43%), Lehman Brothers (LEH -2.30%) and Merrill Lynch (MER -1.75%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 930/2290, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 881/2093

12:30PM: Indices continue to languish near their lows of the session as buying interest remains scarce across the board...But while most sectors continue to sell off, including the broadcasting & cable TV sector (-0.24%), one media giant has stood tall amid the wreckage... Walt Disney (DIS 26.73 +0.36) beat analysts' expectations by a penny last night, citing growth in its ABC network and strength at its theme parks... And to its credit, Walt Disney has been one of the only two names to sustain buying interest in the Dow today...NYSE Adv/Dec 924/2255, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 871/2079

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 963 (28%) 917 (28%)
Declines 2304 (67%) 2106 (66%)
Unchanged 140 (4%) 147 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 215 (23%) 452 (33%)
Down Vol* 670 (74%) 870 (65%)
Unch. Vol* 18 (1%) 8 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 117 89
New Lo's 11 19


and the buck

Last trade 83.25 Change -0.44 (-0.53%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.01

[JNelson6563]

81. Thar she blows Cap'n!!!!!

3:21 and we're taking on water

Dow 10,449.22 -123.33 (-1.17%)
Nasdaq 2,073.72 -30.56 (-1.45%)
S&P 500 1,170.65 -12.90 (-1.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.196% +0.079

Did we hit an iceburg or what? :shrug:

Julie

[54anickel]

83. Aye! And a big one at that!

[54anickel]

87. Closing time! Boy, those blather writers wasted no time headin' for the

door today!

Dow 10,456.91 -115.64 (-1.09%)
Nasdaq 2,070.63 -33.65 (-1.60%)
S&P 500 1,170.34 -13.21 (-1.12%)
10-yr Bond 4.196% +0.079
30-yr Bond 4.875% +0.062
NYSE Volume 1,526,166,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,030,236,000

Close:The major indices saw their recent winning streak crushed, as traders took profits on the heels of cautious analyst territory, frank language from Fed Chairman Greenspan, a triple witching options expiration, a spike in crude oil prices, and a series of technical failures... Selling was initially only evidenced in the semiconductor sector on the heels of a Goldman Sachs downgrade of the semiconductor equipment sector...
The ratings change dragged the semiconductor index (SOX) index through a key support level and led to the Nasdaq's (-1.6%) underperformance of the Dow and S&P 500 (both -1.1%)... Selling really picked up, though, when Greenspan made a blunt statement about interest rates at a euro conference in Germany... The Chairman commented "anyone who has not appropriately hedged this position by now obviously is desirous of losing money," and this sent both equities and treasuries tumbling... As the 10-year note lost ground (yielding close to 4.2%), so too did financial and homebuilding stocks... Meanwhile, the price of crude oil climbed $2.68 higher to $48.90/bbl as worries over tight winter heating supplies resurfaced, this time in Russia and Iraq...YIKES

As a result, energy found buying interest on the news, as the rest of the market fell further on the overwhelming negative developments for the day... Retail was one of the largest laggards owing to a Smith Barney downgrade of several retail stocks ahead of the 2004 holiday shopping season... Gold, conversely, was one of the only groups to buck the bearish trend as the commodity surged almost 1.0% to $447.00/oz... The catalyst for this was the dollar, which fell to new lows on the heels of Greenspan's comments that "currency interventions have had only moderate effects in the past"NYSE Adv/Dec 927/2414, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1007/2118

3:30PM : Stocks remain stuck in the same narrow range they have been in over the past four hours, with the market averages poised to close on the downside... With regards to next Monday, there's no economic data to speak of and the earnings calendar remains rather light... Some companies worth noting include Toys R Us (TOY 19.45 -0.40) and Krispy Kreme (KKD 11.81 -0.62), both out with Q3 results before the bell, and Brocade Communications (BRCD 6.89 -0.46), which will report Q4 earnings after the close... Xerox (XRX 15.67 -0.20) holds its 2004 Investor Conference in New York at 8:30 ET... NYSE Adv/Dec 1001/2318, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 981/2073

3:00PM : Negative breadth figures and strong industry leadership to the downside continue to weigh heavily on the proceedings... A few stocks, though, have been able to find strong buying interest thanks to company-specific developments... Bucking today's bearish trend has been design software maker AutoDesk (ADSK 64.09 +3.44), which has climbed to a new all-time high today after it beat analysts' expectations by four cents and announced a 2-for-1 stock split last night...

Also touching a new (52-week) high on huge volume has been shares of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 5.20 +0.48) following news that former Viacom president Mel Karmazin would take over the reigns as company CEO... And S&P 500 constituent PeopleSoft (PSFT 23.13 +0.21) has also traded in the plus column ahead of the expiration of rival Oracle's (ORCL 12.77 -0.20) 17-month long hostile takeover offer...NYSE Adv/Dec 992/2312, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 981/2073

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 945 (27%) 1007 (30%)
Declines 2393 (68%) 2118 (64%)
Unchanged 140 (4%) 137 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 365 (23%) 630 (31%)
Down Vol* 1152 (75%) 1367 (67%)
Unch. Vol* 8 (0%) 23 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 134 106
New Lo's 11 24


Meanwhile the buck has leveled off some

Last trade 83.25 Change -0.37 (-0.44%)

Settle 83.31 Settle Time 15:38

Open 83.76 Previous Close 83.69

High 83.91 Low 83.01


Have a great weekend everyone :hi:

[JNelson6563]

88. Zowie! Trouble brewing!

Can't blame the blather-writers for heading for cocktail hour in a hurry today. It will take all weekend to come up with something to cheerlead about on Monday.

Great thread today, as usual. Loved all the visuals posted. :-)

Have a nice weekend Marketeers!
Julie

[54anickel]

89. Ahhh, but will their hearts be in the cheering, or will they have an eye

out for the bear?