GOP Plants Flag on New Voting Frontier

[pstokely]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-fast22nov22,0,4272509.story?coll=la-home-headlines

The center of the Republican presidential coalition is moving toward the distant edges of suburbia.

In this month's election, President Bush carried 97 of the nation's 100 fastest-growing counties, most of them "exurban" communities that are rapidly transforming farmland into subdivisions and shopping malls on the periphery of major metropolitan areas.

Together, these fast-growing communities provided Bush a punishing 1.72 million vote advantage over Democrat John F. Kerry, according to a Times analysis of election results. That was almost half the president's total margin of victory.

"These exurban counties are the new Republican areas, and they will become increasingly important to Republican candidates," said Terry Nelson, the political director for Bush's reelection campaign. "This is where a lot of our vote is."

These growing areas, filled largely with younger families fleeing urban centers in search of affordable homes, are providing the GOP a foothold in blue Democratic-leaning states and solidifying the party's control over red Republican-leaning states.

[DELUSIONAL]

1. duplicate post -- same article is in GD

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2735266

[UdoKier]

2. People commuting from exurbs - AMERICA'S STUPIDEST.

Sorry, but if you buy a house that requires you to drive 90 min. one-way to work just to buy a cheesy new tract house that you only sleep in, you are NUTS. Better to buy a fixer-upper or a condo in a city. New suburbs usually start to decline within 10 years these days, anyway. Most suburbs have higher per-capita crime rates than cities these days. I guess it comforts the freeps to know that fewer of the crooks are black.

These communities are the most unsustainable of an already unsustainable lifestyle. It is time to start building our cities UP, not out. And when we do, we need to make sure the new, denser cities are more livable, with shops on the street level and a pedestrian-friendly environment.

[pstokely]

3. does that mean the exurban vote is unstable?

?

[UdoKier]

5. Well, I would imagine yes, in some ways.

But for the GOP, it is probably sustainable, barring AAR becoming a real force in radio, and the introduction of a progressive-leaning news network (doesn't look likely).

The commute times imposed on young families crazy enough to buy in exurbs would logically leave them even LESS time to look into political issues in an in-depth way, and thus rely even MORE on talk radio in the car, and news snippets on TV for their info - NOT a good thing for us.

It amazes me how little these people value time with their families.

[seriousstan]

8. The problem is the schools.

Until that is solved people will continue to do whatever it takes to get their children a decent education.

[UdoKier]

9. Not all cities have bad schools.

Many of the public schools here in San Francisco are EXCELLENT.

In spite of that, 25% of local public school teachers here put their kids in private schools. People here are very demanding in terms of education for their kids.

[seriousstan]

10. The exceptions do not make the rule.

There is a reason that inner-city schools have a bad rap.

[Laelth]

4. Excellent essay.

Strong, detailed exposition (even if you don't like the implications).

Thanks for the link.

-Laelth

[Fovea]

6. As I said in the other related thread

I am pleased that the Pugs want to try to
gain support in the exurbs.

1. The exurbs are going to see the worst economic stress, even displacement, because of their extremely oil dependent lifestyles.

2. The exurbs will try hard not to remember that Bush's pirates of PNAC were the ones who started the oil wars that their children will be drafted into. But when Johnny and Janie start coming home in a box, it will not be possible to do so.

3. The Exurbs have only Big Box Retailing as their local economy. Walmart is probably not as committed to full employment in the exurban community as the mom and pop stores they replace.

So yeah, go for it Karl!!! These are you natural supporters and potential true believers, except that you are going to have to woo them, while simultaneously crapping in their post toasties.
When your policies kill their kids, and turn them into the Joads, I am sure they will line the streets throwing flowers.

[yardwork]

7. These areas are easy to manipulate and easy to steal

Note the quote from the Warren County official in Ohio. That's the county that had the illegal lock-out while votes were counted.

Many of these counties have electronic voting. Did Bush really win big there, or were the machines programmed to say Bush won big?

The other issue is voter manipulation. The people who live in these areas (and I live in one) tend to have young families. They tend to be white-collar workers with predictable - and extremely busy - lifestyles. They go to the gym. They belong to a church. They spend a lot of time on the sidelines of Little League games. Rove figured out how to target this demographic, by using church mailing lists, faux-news videos in gyms, propaganda at the Little League meetings.

This demographic is poorly informed, I've found. They catch snippets of news. They are greatly influenced by what their pastor says.

[DELUSIONAL]

11. Not necessarily -- it depends WHEN the move to

exurbia happened -- and the region of the country.

The early West Coast exurbia communities happened during the hippie era -- late 60s early 70s. When people wanted to move away from the consumerism -- and grow their own food. At the same time the Jesus freaks also moved to the country -- this was the skin head era -- actually following the hippie era by about 10 years. The John Bircher types -- not trusting the UN.

Some exurban area are very well informed and very liberal -- while others the more recent are running away to the "country" so that they can do everything that is banned in the urban and suburban communities -- ATV tracks, shooting gallery in their backyards, shooting anything that moves -- 'cause they think that everything in the country is dangerous.

There are old established exurban areas and then the newer areas and the mixed areas. For awhile there was the newly rich (IP boom of the 90s) who bought country places.

It is very hard to stereotype any one region -- I know a bit about the west coast exurbia -- and each state is quite different. Then there is the East Coast -- Rhinebeck and Woodstock (for example) -- being one of the back to the land -- grown your own -- examples dating back to the late 60s through the 70s and into the 80s.

Some computer business and other related business moved out to the suburbs and exurbia -- and the workers followed. Many of these business have had reductions in their workforce -- and many people were able to take early retirement. They have stayed -- which means that the next phase will be the younger families moving into an older community because the homes are affordable. Young families often have to locate further out in order to find affordable homes -- and the empathy nest couples move on -- perhaps to snow bird communities.

The myth is often that the "country" is best to raise children -- away from the peer pressure of the urban or suburban environment. By driving children to see their friends some parents feel they can control who their children have as friends. This at least was the reasoning that many young parents gave me in the 1970s. This reasoning was given on both the West and the East Coast. Urban and Suburban was seen as being evil to many parents.

I believe that a study done as part of an environmental impact statement on a West Coast suburban development being placed in an exurban community -- said that the average home in this type of setting had 5 round trips per day -- going and coming.

The boundaries between exurban and suburban are very fluid -- and I tend to consider many exurban communities or areas are pre-suburban areas. Once the first suburban development finds its way to exurban areas (cheap land, and cheaper builders) the next housing developments quickly follow. The San Francisco Bay area used to be a major agricultural area -- vast fruit orchards in the South Bay area. The last one disappears about 30 years ago. The exurban areas were often the truck farms for the major cities.

It is fascinating to watch the Illinois -- Chicago suburban -- exurban areas change with the early and mid 1800 census-- the occupations shifted as the city grew into the suburbs and then into exurbia. I've only studied this region using Federal census until the 1910 census.

It is really difficult to make broad generalities about exurban communities or regions -- the coastal regions are very much different from the South, midwest areas. I mostly know about the California rural>exurbia>suburban>urban changes -- and the upstate New York changes, as well as the Illinois changes over a period of 100 years as reflected in Federal census reports.

Some exurban areas are virtual hotbed of Liberals!

[pstokely]

13. don't the homeowners associations of these places have rules against

things like shooting things in the backyard?

[DELUSIONAL]

14. No home owner associations in true exurbia

Exurban areas are generally carved out of Agricultural land or forest land -- a private owner divides up the land into 2 1/2, 5, 10 acres parcels -- and this is generally how exurbia invasions begin. Old farms are divided up when the kids inherit.

The west has newer exurbia settlements -- There were large diary farms in the outlying areas -- but now milk is trucked in from further distances and the dairies are very large. The large dairy farms are broken into "farmettes" or ranchette -- not quite suburbia.

Home owner associations are generally in planned developments.

In the area where I live -- the county commissioners banned target practice unless a whole lot of restrictions were met. Until this ordinance was passed some ex-urbanites moved to the "country" and placed their chair outside, along side an old refrigerator filled with cans of beer and would fire at will at "targets". I've heard stories like this repeated all over in rural/exurban areas.

Actually the subject of Home owner associations is a whole other can of worms. This is generally a suburban development -- and these associations can make decisions about fencing (or not), color of houses, landscaping. In some places the homeowners association can nearly supersede the Constitution -- makes for interesting reading.

Homeowners Associations may be what drives some people to move out and into exurbia -- where they seems to think no rules apply. But every community has unwritten rules -- respect of others being a basic rule.

The Homeowners associations in this region are all in housing developments -- areas that are cleared for building with utilities etc.

[pstokely]

12. aren't most the people moving to these exurbs GenXers

raised during the Reagan years?

[DELUSIONAL]

15. Depends on the area --

Many of the new families in the newer exurban areas are young families -- and they tend to be GenXers.

What we find is that these people move into exurbia -- and then want all the suburban convinces they left behind. They want the developments that they moved into -- but they don't want any other land cut up and developed. They want to keep the "rural" charm -- and the suburban developments are given charming rural names -- Quail Hollow -- for example. These are condos and small homes placed close together with a few random "open" areas.

Land planners are going to have to come up with a name for the transition places -- between exurban and suburban. Green Acres (old TV program) perhaps?

But this is a blue state -- with very few bush/cheney bumper stickers this year.