STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 22 November

[ozymandius]

Monday November 22, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 59 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 346 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 35 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1096
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 19, 2004

Dow... 10,456.91 -115.64 (-1.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,070.63 -33.65 (-1.60%)
S&P 500... 1,170.34 -13.21 (-1.12%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.20% +0.08 (+1.92%)
Gold future... 447.00 +4.10 (+0.92%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood THE DOW REPORT

THE DOW REPORT
The Bear Market Rally Continues (very short)

There are a few points that I want to discuss and clarify about the current rally. The first point being that we are still operating within the context of a bear market, according to Dow theory. The "Master Sell" signal was given in September 1999 and confirmed in March 2000. Everything that has happened since that time is secondary. We also know that according to Dow theory, bear markets unfold in 3 phases and that each of these phases is separated by important rallies. As an example of this I have included a chart of the 1942 to 1966 Bull market and the 1966 to 1974 Bear market that followed.

These rallies not only separate the phases of the bear market, but they also serve to confuse those who do not understand Dow's theory. This keeps the bullish hopes alive and then the bear takes the market down in the next phase, pulling all of the unsuspecting masses with it. The bear's job is to confuse and to do the most damage that he can. These rallies are all part of the confusion. The damage will follow. Please don't think it won't. To do so is exactly what the bear wants.

-cut-

So, we now have to look at this market from a different angle. Since March 2004 we have had to monitor the bear's performance in relation to the March 10th sell signal. In doing so we were watching for signs of failure on behalf of the bear. In other words, the bear had to continue proving himself. Finally, the bear failed at this level. Now our job is to monitor the bull's performance and watch for signs of failure on the bull's behalf. It is now time for the bull to continue to prove himself, but remember, this bullishness is still within the context of the higher level Dow theory Master sell signal and Primary Bear market.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[JNelson6563]

2. Hilarious toon Ozy!

Laughed out loud at that! <snarf>

Other than that, I'd say the only bright spot is Gold. Just look at it go! Wee-hooooo!

Julie

[ozymandius]

3. Thanks Julie! Luckovich is a hoot and a honk.

I read here Friday that if gold reaches the mystical level of $450/oz. then we will see dramatic changes in the dollar's value. Do you know anything regarding what dynamics will be triggered when gold crosses this threshold?

Ozy :hi:

[JNelson6563]

5. I think it's called "panic button"

But I may not have the right techincal term here. heh heh

Julie

[ozymandius]

7. There are too many psychological barriers.

Numbers ending in convenient double-zeros and five-zero carry so much weight in important psychological terms. So your 'panic button' reasoning makes, altogether, too much sense.

I just wonder what this threshold means, if anything, in terms of shifting moneyflows in academic terms. :shrug:

[ozymandius]

4. Oil edges nearer to $50 a barrel

Worries over low stocks of winter heating fuel pushed crude oil ever nearer to the $50 a barrel level again on Monday as forecasters are predicting a worse than normal winter in the north-eastern United States.

The benchmark US oil future Nymex WTI rose 55 cents to $49.44, adding to Friday's $2.51 surge. But prices remain more than $6 off their October peak above $55 after heavy profit-taking by speculators. Brent crude added 62 cents to $45.51 a barrel.

Crude stocks have risen in the US over the last nine weeks and are now higher than last year, but heating oil stocks have fallen and are 16 per cent below last year's levels.

The north-eastern United States is the world's largest oil consuming region and weather forecasters are predicting lower-than-normal winter temperatures. With domestic supplies low they will be forced to import, but with a cold spell in Europe forecast for next week and a surge in demand from China for distillates like heating oil, there's little to export.

more..

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=1&u=/ft/20041122/bs_ft/914dbc183c7b11d9bb7b00000e2511c8

[ozymandius]

6. Don't believe the latest scare story about China

By Arthur Kroeber, managing editor of the China Economic Quarterly

The latest China scare story is that depositors are fleeing the state banking system and putting their money into the higher-yielding informal financial system. This makes it impossible for Beijing to slow down an overheated economy, and puts the fragile state banking system at risk. Don't believe it.

The argument stems from a simple reading of this year's economic data. As Beijing tightened the macroeconomic screws this year to curb speculative investment, lending by the state bank system fell dramatically. Year on year loan growth fell from a peak of nearly 24 per cent in August 2003 to around 11 per cent now.

-cut-

So if loans are falling, and investment and industry continue unabated, companies must be getting money from another source, namely the informal financial sector or "kerb market." Right? Wrong.

There are really three separate issues here. First, how big is China's informal financial system? Second, does the size of the informal financial system render useless Beijing's attempt to control the economy by reducing loans? Finally, is the informal sector draining deposits from the state banks and threatening their stability?

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=6&u=/ft/20041122/bs_ft/0555a1283c3d11d98b1700000e2511c8

[54anickel]

9. Beijing calls on US to stop dollar's fall

I posted a thread on this yesterday. Lots of interesting tidbits comning out of that G20 meeting.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2004/11/21/2003211989

China turned the tables on the US Friday, urging Washington to stop the slide of the dollar and restore equilibrium to global currency markets.

"As a major country having ownership to the most important currency in the global economy, I think the United States has the responsibility, as much responsibility as do the others, to act, to take the necessary actions to restore equilibrium in the currency market," Wang Xiaolong, a senior foreign ministry official in charge of economic affairs said.

"It is only wise, given the weight of the US economy in the world markets, it is only wise that they would take into account the concerns of others, as well as the world economy as a whole."

Wang was speaking ahead of a China-US summit yesterday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum between US President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao (­JÀAÀÜ).

Bush was widely expected to urge China to loosen the 10-year-old peg of the Chinese yuan to the dollar.

more...


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1009393

[54anickel]

10. China to set up Asian-Pacific Finance and Development Center

Another one I posted a thread on yesterday.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/21/content_2244314.htm

SANTIAGO, Nov. 21 (Xinhuanet) -- China will set up an Asia-PacificFinance and Development Center, providing a platform for Asia-Pacific economies to step up exchanges and capacity-building, Chinese President Hu Jintao announced here Sunday.

Speaking at Retreat II of the 12th Economic Leaders' Meeting ofthe Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Chinese president urged the APEC member economies to deepen their mutually-beneficial cooperation in the promotion of an Asia-Pacific Community.

The Chinese president said Chile, the host, chose this year's theme of APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting as "One Community, Our Future", thus well reflected the wishes of the APEC members.

"Common interests and common future require us to shoulder common responsibility and exert joint efforts." Hu said. "We should grasp the opportunities brought about by economic globalization and regional integration process, take full advantages of the APEC platform to learn from each other, push forward closer and mutually beneficial economic and trade cooperation, for the sake of laying a solid foundation for achieving sustainable common development."

Trade and Investment Liberalization and Facilitation (TILF) andEconomic and Technical Cooperation are the two priorities of APEC."We should lose no time in implementing 'Bogor Goals', which provides us with guidelines and measurement for TILF in the Asia-Pacific region," Hu noted.

more...


Found this buried in another story -

"It is not in the interest of our planet to have a proportion of the Muslim world world deeply alienated from the West," New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark told a business conference.

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi said it was not possible to check international terrorism "by unilateral, egocentric action carried out in the manner of punitive retaliation," while Philippine President Gloria Arroyo called for a wider antiterror coalition.

The core APEC business of trade and economics was briefly resurrected when business executives, sipping bottled water at zinc-colored curvy bars, mingled with the leaders Saturday to sell their idea for a regional free trade area.

But the plan seemed to get a mixed reception.

Chile, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Singapore back the free trade area plan while others such as China, Japan, Malaysia and Indonesia were cautious or opposed it, APEC sources said.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/118251/1/.html

[54anickel]

19. Reform of Bretton Woods on G20 agenda next year: China

Sheesh, we're gonna have to start a China Watch!
This is what the EU has been working toward for quite a while.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/118301/1/.html

BERLIN : The finance minister of China, Jin Renqing, said on Sunday that reform of the Bretton Woods international financial system would be discussed next year during China's presidency of the Group of 20 leading economies.

"Discussions will focus on reform of the Bretton Woods system, the reform of trade and development and discussions of new international financing development mechanisms," Jin said at the closing news conference of a weekend meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors.

snip>

Reform of the 60-year-old Bretton Woods agreement had been on the agenda of this year's German presidency of the G20, but German officials signaled a few weeks ago that the issue continued to be a work in progress and would be carried over into the Chinese presidency.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank emerged from the Bretton Woods accord.

bit more...

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.18 Change -0.13 (-0.16%)

Business Focus: Infecting the world

excerpt:

“This really was a green light for further dollar weakness,” said Todd Elmer at Barclays Capital in New York. “It’s going to be very difficult for the dollar to perform well in an environment where the Fed chairman has ramped things up by saying that US savings alone won’t be enough to fix the imbalances.”

Tony Norfield at ABN Amro bank agreed. “He knows very well how his comments will be interpreted,” he said. “It reflects the fact that complaints from Europe about the dollar’s fall are being publicly rebuffed. It also shows that the chance of joint intervention to support the dollar is close to zero.”

<snip>

HOW FAR will the dollar go? According to economists at American Express, the dollar’s average fall so far against all currencies, 15%, is only half of what is needed to correct the huge current-account deficit.

Mike Gallagher, head of research at Ideaglobal.com, the financial-research firm, said the real fear outside America, and in particular in Europe, is that the American authorities will allow the dollar to go into freefall rather than take tough action to correct US deficits.

“European policymakers are wary that the US will pursue a quick-fix for the current- account deficit, using the dollar as the sole channel for the adjustment,” he said. “In this context it is not surprising that Europe is saying alternative solutions are available to narrow the deficit.”

...more...

How currency intervention may have caused the 1987 stock-market crash

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-1367326,00.html

IN the mid-1980s, as now, America’s problem was the ‘twin’ deficits — simultaneous budget and current-account deficits. Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts, made in the belief that they would pay for themselves in higher revenue, had increased the budget deficit, while strongly growing consumer demand sucked in imports.

The problem was that the Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, was determined to control inflation in the wake of the deficits, and this meant high interest rates. High interest rates in turn pushed up the dollar, thus guaranteeing an ever-widening balance-of-payments gap. This was the central problem of Reaganomics.

On September 22, 1985, finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Five — America, Britain, Japan, Germany and France — gathered at the Plaza hotel, next to New York’s Central Park. The statement they issued was to have a profound effect on financial markets. It called for an ‘orderly appreciation of the main non-dollar currencies against the dollar’ and pledged that central banks would co-operate in the foreign-exchange markets to achieve it.

The tactic worked. Central banks intervened to drive down the dollar, which some analysts already believed was significantly overvalued. For nearly 18 months after the Plaza agreement the dollar fell. By the time finance ministers and central bankers gathered in Paris on February 22, 1987, it had halved in value against the German mark. The pound, which came close to $1 in 1985, was back up to $1.55.

...more...

Buried in an article about Iraq's debt

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4027863.stm

excerpt:

Finance Minister Hans Eichel of Germany, which holds the presidency of the G20, said that abrupt changes in foreign exchange rates or oil prices were undesirable.

"The imbalances that exist without doubt in the world economy should not lead to abrupt changes, either in oil prices or exchange rates. That's a common position," he said.

However, one G20 source told Reuters news agency that "it was clear" that no G20 country had an interest in intervening to slow the dollar's slide.

There has been speculation ahead of the G20 summit that governments might propose moves to stem the fall in the dollar and call on China to end its fixed exchange rate peg with the currency.

...more...

No Reports today.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[ozymandius]

16. I heard commentary on Marketplace re: stock market crashes.

This was about two weeks ago. The commentator (sorry, I forget the name) said that a market crash always comes out of left field - otherwise steps would be taken to counter it.

This commentator supported Tim Wood's assessment of a bear market rally. The parallels with 1987 are numerous. A few fundamentals look like 1928-29. Irrational speculation on "favored" stocks exemplified by the herd mentality is a prime parrallel with 1987 and 2001. One fundamental that is, fortunately, absent from the 1929 crash is the level of margin trading. The rules of margin trading imposed by trading houses after the '29 crash are still a reminder of how much can go wrong where one least expects it.

[54anickel]

34. ANALYSIS: Dollar Fall Will Come at a Price for All

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/041121/economy_dollar_2.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is set to turn a blind eye to the sliding dollar and a deaf ear to protests about its fall, but experts smell trouble for all in what looks like an effective devaluation of the world's reserve currency.

While a messy, uncontrolled slide in the dollar may help cut record U.S. trade and budget deficits, it transfers the pain to its creditors and could rebound on the United States by inflicting a longer-term dent on the dollar's prized reserve currency role.

snip>

"Further substantial increases in the U.S. net debtor position would raise the prospect of a substantial U.S. dollar depreciation, with the associated capital losses inflicted on its creditors," said Philip Lane, professor of international macroeconomics at Trinity College, Dublin.

"In turn, this may threaten the special status of the dollar, also in light of the emergence of the euro as an alternative reserve currency, and raise the rate of return required by foreign investors on dollar instruments."

snip>

Roubini, who was a White House and Treasury economic adviser between 1998 and 2001, said it takes only one or two smaller central banks -- like in India or Russia -- to start diversifying reserves to undermine the whole process.

more...

[UpInArms]

11. No deal on dollar as US shrugs off European pressure

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=585394

Europe and Japan failed yesterday to persuade the United States to address the decline in the dollar, despite talks at a fractious meeting of the Group of 20 industrialised and developing nations.

The two camps blamed each other for the currency's fall and for failing to take action to stem it. The US refused to accept German proposals that the group should condemn volatile currency moves.

Last week, the dollar dropped to a record low of $1.3074 against the euro and to a more than four-year low to the yen at 102.67. Analysts said the absence of a co-ordinated stance among the G-20 was likely to lead to further weakening of the dollar.

The final statement issued by the G-20 yesterday failed to mention currency swings explicitly and simply called for greater flexibility in Asian currencies - a couched reference to China's yuan exchange rate, which is pegged to the dollar. That means the euro and the yen are bearing the brunt of the dollar's fall, damaging exports.

The US insisted the dollar's decline was not on the agenda at the meeting, while European politicians have been anxious for action to stem the rise in the euro that threatens to bring their economy to a halt.

...more...

[54anickel]

32. European Economies: Trichet May Struggle to Halt Euro's Advance

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=arXlQJ1Xu0hA&refer=europe

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet, whose warning against ``brutal'' currency shifts helped push the euro down from a record in January, may fail to halt its rally this time without support from the U.S.

The euro rose to a record of $1.3074 on Nov. 18, threatening to stifle a recovery in the 12 nations sharing the currency, even after Trichet repeated his ``brutal'' comment 10 days earlier. U.S Treasury Secretary John Snow said in London last week that exchange rates are best set by markets.

``There's very little they can do,'' said Thomas Mayer, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. ``They can try intervention but I would seriously doubt if it could work. Cutting interest rates is tricky because they seem to be thinking more about the upside risks to inflation.''

Snow and other finance ministers from the Group of 20 industrial and emerging economies meeting in Berlin at the weekend omitted the dollar's drop from their joint closing statement. The U.S. rejected German efforts to insert a sentence criticizing ``volatile'' currency moves, said two German governing officials, who declined to be identified.

``The U.S. not only doesn't have a case to intervene but is rather happy with the dollar's downtrend,'' said Ian Stewart, chief European economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London.

more...

[54anickel]

12. New VC Funding vs. Jobs

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=37922

"Everybody" knows Silicon Valley needs more jobs to really be considered in a recovery. "Everybody" also "knows" start-ups will lead an employment recovery. Start-ups grow faster and need a higher concentration of engineering talent to get off the ground. "Everybody" is waiting for next phase of start-ups to start growing-- and hiring.

For insight into start-up activity, we like to study VC figures and 3Q04 VC funding statistics were just released. And what do you know, the statistics are being taken as evidence of a Silicon Valley recovery:



US VC Investment ($M)*

2000 $106,028

2001 $38,064

2002 $3,661

2003 $10,528

YTD04 $11,249 ($14,998 projected total)



(For purposed of this discussion, let's just ignore 2004's run rate is 85% less than Y2K figures.)

Another source, VentureOne(**), shows 3Q04 US VC investments were actually down -15.8% from 2Q04 and down slightly year-over-year. Even so, $15B in new VC investments YTD04 will be more than 2002 and 2003 combined. Not exactly chopped liver.

snip>

Overlooking the down years after the bubble, where are all the new jobs today? With a VC funding rate +14.5% above the 1998 rate, Silicon Valley still down -94,100 jobs?!? We have nearly 100,000 fewer jobs than before the boom??

The most obvious reason is a 2004 VC dollar and a 1998 VC dollar are not spent the same way. It seems inescapable that 2004 VC dollars are increasingly funding new jobs overseas.

As stunning as the jobs numbers were at first glance, closer inspection discovers even worse news.

more...

[54anickel]

13. Greenspan Watch

Last entry on the page - interesting tidbits on the way down again as well.

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

snip>

Question: “You used the words “irrational exuberance” in your talk about the valuation of the stock markets. Since then we have seen a substantial correction. The new buzzwords are “hedge funds” or “the credit derivatives market.” Is that something which you look at with concern, and do you take that into account in your monetary policy?”

Chairman Greenspan: “Strangely...I look at them with some significant positive attitudes for one very important reason. As the conversation evolved today, I think it becomes clear that as a consequence of the ever rapid movement of globalization that the adjustment processes- which invariably occurs as a consequence - run through the market system and not the result of governmental policies. Indeed, the vast amount of problems that emerge in the global system are never actually visible because market price adjustments and exchange rates and interest rates absorb the adjustment before it becomes visible. And so this is a system which I’ve often termed is the “international invisible hand.” The onset of newer products such as Credit derivative swaps and institutions such as the newly-structured hedge funds actually are very major players in this issue of flexibility. As I have often observed, we went through the latter part of the 1990s – and indeed the 1998 crisis – with remarkable degrees of flexibility. And there was, for example, very large issuance of telecommunications debt - from I think, 1998 through 2001 – in the U.S. dollar equivalent of about a Trillion dollars worldwide. A significant part of that debt defaulted, yet largely as a consequence of Credit default swaps, collateral debt obligations, and other means by which risk was being transferred, no large financial institution in the world went into default or even into significant difficulty. The spreading of the risk was very critical – and indeed my suspicion is that without these risk-spreading instruments we would have been in far greater difficulty as a consequence of the problems which emerged, especially subsequent to the decline in 2000 and 2001 in most world financial markets. Hedge funds are evolving from what they used to be, and their main evidence within financial markets is as arbitrageurs. They seek abnormal profits by trying to find niche abnormalities in the marketplace, which means prices are out of balance and therefore create the possibility of above average rates of return. But the actual exploitation of that imbalance eliminates it. And, indeed, one can see the huge amounts of funds that hedge funds have moved in and out of various markets – in and out of various instruments – which has kept the system fluid and flexible. And I would be most concerned if we were to lose the flexibility added by either of these major instruments – like Credit default swaps – or new institutions such as hedge funds.”

My comments: It is again clear the Mr. Greenspan fails to recognize the epic changes that have transformed global Credit system dynamics. Financial “evolution” has profoundly altered “risk intermediation” – increasing global Credit Availability from subprime to emerging markets. Contemporary financial engineering has dramatically affected “the moneyness of Credit.” At the same time, the limitless capacity for a diverse group of participants to leverage myriad debt instruments has created global markets liquefied like never before. And Credit and liquidity excesses have so distorted the pricing mechanism to the point that the notion of an ‘invisible hand” guiding market adjustments and self-corrections is pure fantasy.

I do agree that “hedge funds are evolving from what they used to be.” However, it is much more a case that the funds used to be “arbitrageurs” seeking to profit from market inefficiencies and pricing anomalies. Today, such opportunities would be trivial and not come anywhere close to providing even minimal returns for the nearly $1 Trillion invested in hedge funds (and unknown sums in “proprietary trading’). Instead, the speculation game evolved to playing for profits from discrepancies created by government policies – largely ultra-easy and carefully telegraphed monetary policies. The most obvious would be inflating asset prices and a perpetually positive yield curve.

more...

[UpInArms]

15. GACK! the gobbledygook that this thing spews makes

my eyes suck into the back of my head!

A significant part of that debt defaulted, yet largely as a consequence of Credit default swaps, collateral debt obligations, and other means by which risk was being transferred, no large financial institution in the world went into default or even into significant difficulty. The spreading of the risk was very critical – and indeed my suspicion is that without these risk-spreading instruments we would have been in far greater difficulty as a consequence of the problems which emerged, especially subsequent to the decline in 2000 and 2001 in most world financial markets.

Is this yet another manifestation of shoving the losses onto the unsuspecting shareholders?

Perhaps "no financial institution" suffered, but didn't a lot of other people "suffer" from the telecom fraud?

[54anickel]

22. Remember, this guy lost his "humanity" about 15 years ago. So human

suffering means nothing to him. He must protect the markets, hence the banks by spreading their losses around. In his mind, he is doing us all a favor, thinking it would be much more painful if the ponzi scheme was allowed to fail.

So he just keeps blowing bubbles, causing crisis around the globe in an attempt to put off the inevitable. But sooner or later, you've got to pay the fiddler! The inevitable is looking to come back home to roost, and it will probably be much worse after being postponed for so long due to all his "tinkering" over the years.

[ozymandius]

21. He seems to embrace the notion of progress through a continuance

of debt. Also through spreading the debt burden to every conceivable economic sector.

Hedge funds are evolving from what they used to be, and their main evidence within financial markets is as arbitrageurs. They seek abnormal profits by trying to find niche abnormalities in the marketplace, which means prices are out of balance and therefore create the possibility of above average rates of return. But the actual exploitation of that imbalance eliminates it. And, indeed, one can see the huge amounts of funds that hedge funds have moved in and out of various markets – in and out of various instruments – which has kept the system fluid and flexible.

Flexible? How? By shuttling off debt to the taxpayers who will ultimately bail out institutions that game the system? Is the definition of flexibility such that a few arbitragers benefit from a lack of oversight?

[54anickel]

28. Hedge fund returns could be misleading

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2004-11-21-hedge-funds_x.htm

NEW YORK — A key selling point of hedge funds, the wildly popular investments geared to the rich but now open to less-wealthy investors, is their ability to post positive returns even in down markets.
But there's a catch: The returns of hedge funds may be lower than advertised, making them far riskier than believed, an academic paper now under review found.

Hedge fund index returns are "inflated" because of biases in how indexes are constructed, say the study's authors, Burton Malkiel of Princeton University and Atanu Saha of Analysis Group. The findings, Saha says, are a "red flag" for investors.

The study comes at a critical juncture for hedge funds. In early 2006, they will be required to register with regulators. Hedge funds, which utilize leverage and can profit from falling prices by "shorting" stocks, have also seen their popularity skyrocket. Assets have grown fivefold since 1994 to roughly $1 trillion. Pension funds, endowments and other institutions looking to diversify are flocking to hedge funds, as are individual investors who are buying shares in funds that invest in a basket of other hedge funds. This investment, referred to as a fund of funds, requires smaller initial investments.

more...


Hedge fund boom forecast as investors exploit inefficiencies

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/60c92cf8-3c2b-11d9-8b17-00000e2511c8.html

Hedge fund investment in Japanese assets, tiny compared to that in other developed markets, is likely to boom in the next five to 10 years as investors seize on a variety of unexploited opportunities, according to an industry executive charged with finding Asian fund managers.


Adrian Gmür, head of Asian manager search at RMF Investment Management, says: "We think we are just at the beginning of the development of the hedge fund market here, similar to where Europe was in 1998." RMF is part of Man Group, one of the world's largest fund of hedge fund providers.

"We think we can generate a lot of here because the markets are less efficient, there are fewer hedge funds and proprietary trading activity is not so strong since the Asian crisis," says Mr Gmür, dispatched to Tokyo this year to help broaden RMF's exposure to Asia.

Hedge funds account for $20bn, less than 1 per cent of all investment in Tokyo stocks, he says, compared with a proportion of 5-10 per cent in Europe. The bulk of that money comes from so-called long-short funds, which purchase stocks they think will rise while selling other, borrowed shares they expect to buy back more cheaply. In the past two years, a significant number of funds began going long on small and mid-cap stocks, while shorting large caps, Mr Gmür says.

"The theory is that younger smaller companies are more dynamic, whereas some of the really big companies have much more trouble adjusting."

snip>

Long-short funds could also take advantage of diverging standards of corporate governance. Japan's blue chip companies are striving to match their international peers, but last week Seibu Railway, a train operator, was delisted for falsifying shareholder data for more than 40 years.

"Companies that refuse to change provide a chance to say you think they'll be left behind by the market, so you can short them," Mr Gmür says. :eyes:

more...

[54anickel]

43. Greenspan Finesses A Dollar Stampede

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

Try to imagine how the stock market might have reacted on Friday if the bear rather than the bull had been dominant in these last few weeks since the election. What a memorable day it might have been! Oil quotes were soaring, bond prices were plummeting, and the Fed Chairman was acknowledging in public for the first time that the dollar's weakness is becoming - how did he say it? Well, actually, he didn't -- at least not in the news reports I read. What he said, referring to America's cosmically outsize trade deficit, was this: "It seems persuasive that, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point."

I couldn't have put it any better myself. Say what you will about Mr. Greenspan's louche propensity to lend, the guy knows how to finesse the early rumblings of a global panic. Securities markets were roiled by his comments, for sure, but at the end of the day the Dow Industrials were off just 116 points, or about 1.1 percent. One might have expected the blue chip average to fall by at least 200-300 points, but it held its ground against Friday's tidal swell of bad news and even managed to close 18 points above the low of the day.

Will G20 Goose the Dollar?

This is not a stock market that will be easily cowed come Monday, no matter how ugly the news. There's even the possibility of a strong rebound when the markets open - if the G-20 bankers who are meeting in Berlin should decide that Sunday is the perfect time to goose the dollar. Stranger things have happened. A deftly engineered rally would turn the dollar bears' gang-bang into a wake and also provide a few more precious weeks for Mr. Greenspan to figure out what to do next, when the dollar begins to plummet anew.

As usual, the Chairman did not exit the dais without contributing yet another bizarre side-note to the annals of economics. Friday's little gem is likely to be recalled a generation hence, most pointedly by carry traders who by now have imbibed more debt than they could unwind in 50 years without bringing the world to an end, financially speaking. Here's the quote, and I'm not certain whether Mr. Greenspan intended to be ironic, if naively so, or just wickedly mean-spirited: "Rising interest rates have been advertised for so long and in so many places that anyone who has not appropriately hedged this position by now obviously is desirous of losing money.'' You dummies know who you are. Now, it's time not to panic!

[54anickel]

57. Greenspan copying the Lawson formula

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid84945

snip>

Only in the last few months has he started marching them back up again - and even now, after four increases, they are still a very low 2%. More to the point, they were kept artificially low long after the US economy had begun to pick up again, and they stay low despite the fact that it continues to roll along.

This ought to cause an upsurge of inflation. It is, of course, fashionable to believe inflation is dead. Indeed, Roger Bootle, one of London's best economists, continues to argue very cogently that there is little chance of its return, and most people go along with him.

There is a touching belief too, built on the past decade's experience, that central bankers now know what they are doing and will act promptly to nip any inflationary pressures in the bud.

It is debatable whether central bankers deserve this much intellectual respect and it certainly ignores the possibility, as with Greenspan, that central bank policy might be the cause of the problem.

But, say the doves, if Greenspan's policy is inflationary, why has there been no sign of it, given that the Fed has been deluging people in credit for years?

more...

[RawMaterials]

14. China's Foot on America's Throat

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge112204.html

The Chinese ambassador to the United States was in our hometown of Dallas this week giving a speech, so we decided to pay him a visit. Ambassador Yang Jiechi

TexasHedge: Mr. Ambassador, we would like to ask you a question regarding your currency reserves. The huge pile of U.S. Dollars your country has accumulated as a result of its trade surplus with America has been reinvested time and time again in U.S. Treasuries and GSE debt. We know that there is a tremendous amount of international pressure on your country to revalue the Yuan; but we understand why you hesitate to do so because this could cause your domestic economy to slow and unemployment to rise. We also know that your country, which is facing a shortage of several critical natural resources, has recently established a strategic petroleum reserve. So our question is why you don't diversify your foreign reserves out of dollar-denominated treasuries and into other stores of value such as Euros, Francs, gold, silver, oil, aluminum and steel?

Yang Jiechi: (Paraphrasing) Our goal with our exchange rate and economy is to move to more market-oriented policies over time. But you must understand that many companies in China are owned by American and other foreign entities. Furthermore, the Dollars that China accumulates are re-invested back into U.S. Treasuries, which is good for America. You also should know that while China enjoys a surplus with the United States, we have large trade deficits with many of our Asian neighbors. But to answer your question regarding diversification out of dollars, we are moving in that direction.


The largest beneficiary of this will be the precious metals - gold and silver - make no mistake about it. The recent launch of the first U.S. gold ETF (ticker: GLD) has already shown incredible demand and we surmise it will only grow from here.

[54anickel]

17. GACK!!! Is this AM Market Call link correct?

DOW futures down 110.00? Or am I reading this wrong? 10478.00 is higher than Friday's close from the chart. :shrug:


http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

December 2004 Change Price Last updated
S&P 500† -3.10 1169.20 11/22 8:41
Fair Value 1170.64 11/19 19:15
Difference * -1.44 11/19 19:15

December 2004 Change Price Last updated
NASDAQ† -8.00 1550.00 11/22 8:38
Fair Value 1554.51 11/19 19:15
Difference * -4.51 11/19 19:15

December 2004 Change Price Last updated
DOW JONES† -110.00 10478.00 11/19 16:20

[UpInArms]

20. ino's futures show

that the DOW should open down somewhere between 31 and 36 points

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/

[54anickel]

23. Thanks! That what I get for looking at a source that I don't understand.

[MrUnderhill]

27. For some reason..

..CNN's "AM Market Call" seems to show the futures pricing for both the S&P and the NASDAQ, but always (at least when I've noticed) shows the DOW figure from the previous day.

[54anickel]

29. Thanks MrU. I've looked at that before and have always been puzzled

by it. That makes sense.

[UpInArms]

18. Treasurys boosted by thoughts of Japanese intervention

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38313.3690004861-827532873&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys climbed Monday on thoughts the Bank of Japan might begin purchasing dollars and invest in U.S. debt to soften the yen. The benchmark 10-year note gained 3/32 to 100 14/32. Its yield {s: $tnx], used in determining corporate and consumer lending rates, fell to 4.2 percent.

Just the "thought" of intervention gets folks excited?

ROFL!

[UpInArms]

24. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Bearish bias persists in the face of rising oil prices, possibly suggesting a more cautious mind-set following widespread weakness on Friday... As such, the stage remains set for a lower open for the major indices

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Lack of buying conviction in the futures market still indicates a slightly downside start for the cash market... Not much in the way of market-moving news as a limited number of earnings reports have come in mixed and there is no economic data of note out until existing home sales hit the wires at 10:00 ET tomorrow

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Expectations for a slightly lower start for the cash market remain intact as futures market is still unable to gain upside traction this morning... Traders showing some reserve after Friday's broad-based sell-off triggers belief that current conditions don't warrant an overly bullish stance... Separately, noted this morning that the IMF scaled down its expectations for world economic growth next year to 4.0% from 4.3% because of oil prices near record levels and the U.S. budget deficit

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures market exhibiting a negative tone this morning, suggesting a modestly lower open for the cash market... Crude oil prices ($49.36/bbl +0.47) have extended Friday's gains amid worries over winter fuel supplies while ongoing concerns about weakness in the dollar has added pressure to trading in overseas markets (Nikkei closed -2.1%)...

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extended last Friday's decline due to profit taking and is breaking out below the 10- day moving average crossing at 1552.95. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) is beginning to turn down hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1552.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 7.00 pts. at 1551 as of 5:37 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline, which led to a breakout below initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1175.85. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned down signaling that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends last Friday's decline, a test of the 20-day moving average crossing at 1157.69 is the next downside target. If this fall's rally resumes, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. The December S&P 500 Index was down 4.00 pts. at 1168.30 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

25. IMF Cuts Forecast for 2005 World Growth, Germany Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aeZtV0y_hmOs&refer=germany

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund scaled down its expectations for world economic growth next year because of oil prices near records and the U.S. budget deficit, German Deputy Finance Minister Caio Koch-Weser said.

The IMF expects global growth of about 4 percent next year, compared with a Sept. 29 forecast of 4.3 percent, Koch-Weser said in an interview yesterday, citing comments by the fund's managing director, Rodrigo de Rato, to delegates at a Berlin meeting of the Group of 20 industrial and emerging economies.

``Nobody can rule out a renewed rise in oil prices and the U.S. twin deficit, which has overshadowed the world economy for some time, shows no signs of improvement,'' said Manuela Preuschl, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt, Germany's biggest bank by assets. Preuschl expects the global economy to expand 4.1 percent in 2005 after 4.9 percent this year.

snip>

U.S. Deficit Pledge

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow told fellow G-20 ministers that he plans to cut the budget deficit in half by 2009 by adopting growth policies and spending less.

snip>

`Do Our Homework'

The shortfall in the U.S. budget deficit grew to a record $412 billion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. The current account, a measure of trade, services, tourism and investments, widened to a record $166.2 billion in the second quarter.

``What we did gain from the meeting was a convincing pledge by the U.S. to cut its deficit,'' Koch-Weser said. ``We all have to do our homework but let's see if the U.S. sticks to its word.''

[UpInArms]

26. 9:42 EST markets are open

Dow 10,438.58 -18.33 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,066.75 -3.88 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,169.01 -1.33 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.202% +0.006

NYSE Volume 67,690,000
Nasdaq Volume 131,578,000

[54anickel]

30. Canada's appeal in commodities and currency

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/655f21d8-3a77-11d9-aa4d-00000e2511c8.html

A foreign invasion is under way in Canada. Over the past few months, Asian, US and European investors have stalked several of the country's most prominent companies. They are also scooping up Canadian debt.


Much of the activity is in the resources sector, as might be expected when commodity prices are high. But the interest extends beyond rocks and trees. The Canadian dollar is trading at its highest level in more than a decade, and the Toronto stock exchange's main index is at a four-year peak.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's latest survey of Canada, the Canadian dollar's recent appreciation "reflects a shift in portfolio preferences after a long period when Canada was unjustifiably seen as a perennial under-performer".

Robert Spector, chief strategist at Merrill Lynch Canada, adds that Canada has some significant advantages over other big commodity producers, such as Australia, Russia and South Africa. It is a net oil and gas exporter, and is running sizeable fiscal and current account surpluses.

The pace of direct foreign investment appears to have quickened in recent months. China's Minmetals is currently negotiating a takeover of Noranda, one of Canada's biggest mining groups, and other prospective bidders are in the wings.

more...

[54anickel]

35. And look at the bird fly!!!.....n/t

[TrogL]

55. We're lookin' at a dollar loonie

It is hard to find an economist who is not forecasting a further appreciation. Donald Coxe, chairman of Harris Investment Management in Chicago, thinks the loonie is heading towards par with the dollar for the first time since the mid-1970s.

This will have a HUGE psychological effect on Canada and its relationship with the reigning Liberal government. Now if (as I suspect) Dubya announces an end to the mad cow crisis (it seems kind of pointless, the US has its own cases now) and maybe something on softwood lumber, Martin will have hit the trifecta (I think I'm mixing my metaphors).

[UpInArms]

31. Krispy Kreme loses $3 million in third quarter

http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2004-11-22-krispy-kreme_x.htm

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) said Monday that it lost $3 million in the third quarter, as it discontinued some operations and closed stores.

The company declined to provide guidance for the current quarter and for fiscal 2005.

Losses for the quarter were $3 million, or 5 cents a share, down from profit of $14.5 million, or 23 cents a share, a year ago. Excluding one-time charges, the company earned $2.4 million, or 4 cents a share, in the latest quarter.

Analysts had expected Krispy Kreme to post earnings of 13 cents a share, according to Thomson First Call.

...more...

[54anickel]

33. Next Up for Spitzer: Funny Numbers

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/21/business/yourmoney/21insure.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1101135822-bvL4+OlRRWron/XXkoEGBQ

LIOT SPITZER, the New York attorney general, has already exposed insurance industry secrets like bid-rigging and hidden commissions. Now he is training his spotlight on an even murkier part of that universe: the buying and selling of insurance policies that artificially bolster companies' financial statements.

The policies in question are known as finite insurance or financial reinsurance. They are sold as ordinary insurance policies, which allow companies that buy them to receive favorable accounting treatment - smoothing out losses on their books, for example.

To critics, however, the policies are structured less like insurance and more like loans. At heart, they say, finite insurance is simply a form of financial engineering that masks the strength or weakness at the companies that buy them. As such, its use has probably had a much greater impact on investors and customers than other industry practices that Mr. Spitzer has singled out.

The deals offer an especially rich vein for investigators to mine, industry analysts say. And last week, Mr. Spitzer sent out a flurry of subpoenas to insurers - including Ace Ltd., the St. Paul Travelers Companies and Zurich Financial Services - about policies they may have sold to help customers eliminate or offset losses that would have hurt their financial results. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department are also scrutinizing financial engineering products sold by insurers. All three companies said they were cooperating, but they declined to comment further.

By far the biggest customers for such policies are insurers themselves, so investigators will be looking at how these companies may have used these contracts to make their books look better. As regulators unravel these arrangements, industry analysts say, they are likely to discover a labyrinth of deals among insurance companies that are often routed through tax havens in Bermuda or the Caribbean.

more...

[ozymandius]

36. Have a great day all!

My attention has been scattered to the four winds all morning (as if this is any different from the norm). So my son and I are focusing on getting out the door. I bid you all farewell. Have a wonderful day watching that Casino roar.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

37. Hat Trick Letter - November (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie112204.html

We witness challenging times. Previous events will not be repeated, although similarities will be evident. Rules once sacred will not hold, although certain dynamics will be at work. New rules must be written, which integrate time-honored natural laws and new evolutionary change. One cannot afford to be rigid, and must seek out signals. The business cycle is broken. Global trade is one-sided. Huge contrasts in cost structures have collided between China and the USA, whose bonafide income production has vanished. A storm is brewing now that the uncertainty behind our elections has passed. A quiet chaos is evident.

Many current events have taken place, among them:

* The Federal Reserve hiked the target Fed Funds rate another 25 basis points to a flat 2.0%, but is clear the end is not there. Higher short-term rates have not assisted the USDollar, whose lower exchange rates have done nothing to lower the trade deficit.
.
* The presidential election is now behind us. Front and center are the twin deficits (federal & trade) in the eyes of FOREX traders. The USA electorate has spoken. Currency markets will next have their voice heard, with a fresh USDollar breakdown. There may be no atonement for the crimes of the USDollar against the Economic Mother Nature.
.
* Putin, European leaders, and OPEC representatives quietly are plotting to establish stronger ties between Europe and Russia in their basis for financial transactions. Putin is adroitly attempting to install euro pricing of crude oil, which would favor Germany and other large EU nations, in exchange for geopolitical concessions. Russia wants a more powerful voice for Russia in world politics. A petro-euro would strike at the heart of the domination of world leadership by the USA.
.
* Big oil companies have granted larger dividends and announced stock share buyback programs, instead of directing their outsized profits to greater exploration budgets. Exxon Mobil announced reduced financing for exploration, with capital spending down 5.5% from last year. High volume energy deposits are nowhere to be seen. Exxon, Shell, and BP profits are soaring.

snip>

European central bank leaders are simply angry and resentful, even as Asian leaders issue warning signals on rising risk of retaining the USDollar as the world reserve currency. Several comments are noted by Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, French finance Nicolas Sarkozy, and Bank of Japan Governor Fukui. Intervention has been a central banker stock in trade for several years, even as 0% Japanese policy and prolonged artificially low US rates represent utter failure on their parts.

The trade gap was reported for September at $51.6 billion, a continued hemorrhage. We hit a record in exports, but registered the third largest trade gap ever recorded. September exports were $0.8 billion more than August exports of $96.7 billion. The contrast sharply highlights the lack of export capacity potential inside the US Economy. Exports of advanced technology products (such as computers, networking equipment, telecomm gear) were $17.3 billion in September and imports were $20.4 billion, resulting in a deficit of $3.1 billion. This is supposed to be our great advantage niche. The USA is almost at the point where our great agricultural industry is in deficit. Another dynamic at work with the unending and expanding trade gap is the Chinese currency peg regime. Some might grow tired of hearing about it, but its importance is huge. The peg of the US$-yuan of 8.3:1 forces the US-China economic region to operate as a single entity, with no currency exchange reaction available to offer remedy to vast differences in our cost structures, or to an accumulation of surplus built up. US Federal Reserve stimulus, second mortgage laxity, US merchant financing, THESE ARE HELPING TO BUILD CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL BASE. A capital hemorrhage proceeds uninterrupted from the USA to Asia. Even as the USDollar has declined, the trade gap has grown worse, a severe warning of structural imbalance and imminent monetary crisis. During all this, Wall Street celebrates a vacant rally and is asleep to the rising risk.

snip>

A new battleground will become more apparent soon, supply chain guarantee. China is highly likely to transfer the conflict onto battlegrounds where the USA cannot compete. Our vulnerability is matched by growing resentment of us worldwide, hard to fathom and accept. DO NOT EXPECT OUR USGOVT TO SIT IDLY BY. The USGovt will eventually attempt to block foreign purchase of hard asset properties. We stand to lose in many respects from very serious damaging fallout. Generally, the USA will see amplification of production cost inflation and USDollar decline, with Canadian and other commodity economies benefiting mightily. These effects are fully discussed in the private newsletter, trailing the Noranda and Athabasca deals with an analysis of the flow of money included. No guesswork, only analysis.

more...

[54anickel]

38. Huh, Overnight repos were issued early today: 9.750 billion

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

[UpInArms]

39. 10:30 EST numbers, old blather and the buck

Dow 10,456.40 -0.51 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,066.36 -4.27 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,170.35 +0.01 (+0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.193% -0.003

NYSE Volume 264,928,000
Nasdaq Volume 446,610,000

10:00AM: The major indices are still under pressure in the early going as efforts to digest mixed earnings reports stall... Campbell Soup (CPB 28.92 +1.56) beat analysts' expectations by four cents and issued in-line guidance for FY05 while Toys R Us (TOY 19.84 +0.48) reported a narrower than expected loss of $0.12, three cents better than expectations... Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD 9.85 -1.65), however, missed the consensus estimate by nine cents, withdrew its Q4 sales guidance and said it would not provide an investors with an outlook for fiscal 2005...NYSE Adv/Dec 1331/1296, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1036/1483

9:40AM: As expected, the broader averages open slightly lower as little enthusiasm keeps buying interest at a minimum... The International Monetary Fund has trimmed its forecasts for world economic growth for 2005, to 4.0% from 4.3%, as crude oil prices ($49.11/bbl +0.22) have continued to climb amid winter fuel supply concerns and global worries about the U.S. budget deficit... The combination of both factors has driven the indices modestly lower this morning...

Last trade 83.13 Change -0.18 (-0.22%)

Settle 83.31 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.27 Previous Close 83.31

High 83.39 Low 83.13

Last tick: 2004-11-22 10:01:38 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

40. adding 10:30 blather

10:30AM: Market sentiment has turned somehwhat mixed, as influential areas such as financial and health care have barely budged from their negative standings... But consumer staples and home improvement, as well as utility and transportation have shown some early signs of strength... A Merrill Lynch report that indicates worldwide PC sales have peaked at 12% for 2004 and that unit growth for 2005 and 2006 should decline to about 9% and 6%, respectively, has the semiconductor group, disk drive stocks and several networking issues feeling the heat...NYSE Adv/Dec 1438/1486, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1202/1521

[JNelson6563]

42. 10:38 update

Dow 10,452.62 -4.29 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,065.32 -5.31 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,170.03 -0.31 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.194% -0.002

Hanging on for dear life it looks to me.

Julie

[54anickel]

45. What's the buck doing back down there? It had a nice little rising

channel going since 7:00 am.

[54anickel]

52. Buck achieves another new low of 83.10

Last trade 83.10 Change -0.21 (-0.25%)

Settle 83.31 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.27 Previous Close 83.31

High 83.39 Low 83.10

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-11-22 10:40:24 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

41. Raising the Debt Limit: A Disgrace (Ron Paul)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/paul/paul111904.html

Mr. Speaker, Congress is once again engaging in fiscal irresponsibility and endangering the American economy by raising the debt ceiling, this time by $800 billion dollars. One particularly troubling aspect of today's debate is how many members who won their seats in part by pledging never to raise taxes, will now vote for this tax increase on future generations without so much as a second thought. Congress has become like the drunk who promises to sober up tomorrow, if only he can keep drinking today. Does anyone really believe this will be the last time, that Congress will tighten its belt if we just grant it one last loan? What a joke! There is only one approach to dealing with an incorrigible spendthrift: cut him off.

The term "national debt" really is a misnomer. It is not the nation's debt. Instead, it is the federal government's debt. The American people did not spend the money, but they will have to pay it back.

Most Americans do not spend much time worrying about the national debt, which now totals more than eight trillion dollars. The number is so staggering that it hardly seems real, even when economists issue bleak warnings about how much every American owes-- currently about $25,000. Of course, Congress never hands each taxpayer a bill for that amount. Instead, the federal government uses your hard-earned money to pay interest on this debt, which is like making minimum payments on a credit card. Notice that the principal never goes down. In fact, it is rising steadily.

The problem is very simple: Congress almost always spends more each year than the IRS collects in revenues. Federal spending always goes up, but revenues are not so dependable, especially since raising income taxes to sufficiently fund the government would be highly unpopular. So long as Congress spends more than the government takes via taxes, the federal government must raise taxes, print more dollars, or borrow money.

Over the last three years, we have witnessed an unprecedented explosion in federal spending. The national debt has actually increased an average of $16 billion a day since September 30, 2003!

more...

[UpInArms]

44. time to post the ticking timebomb

The estimated population of the United States is 294,865,002
so each citizen's share of this debt is $25,267.85.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.59 billion per day since September 30, 2003

[54anickel]

47. Hey, that looks like yet another record breaker!...n/t

[UpInArms]

46. Snow: U.S. will reduce budget deficit

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B94FE8703%2D7888%2D49BD%2DB5BF%2D0EE6FF3EA679%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow pledged to reduce the nation's budget deficit Sunday, speaking at the conclusion of the Group of 20 economic summit in Berlin.

America's deficit has been blamed for the euro's gains over the dollar.

Snow said that the Bush administration was committed to cutting the deficit through spending caps and promoting pro-growth policies.

He also called upon the United States' trading partners to help reduce barriers to trade, such as instituting more flexible exchange rates.

Snow briefly discussed the just released G-20 Accord for Sustainable Growth, which calls for free trade and open markets worldwide, and he highlighted the importance of supporting international institutions to achieve economic growth.

"In recognition of the 60th anniversary of the Bretton Woods institutions, we discussed today the recent progress made in modernizing these institutions and the need for further reforms," he said.

Earlier in the summit, Beijing announced that it is not ready to loosen its currency peg to the U.S. dollar.

<snip>

The United States recorded a current account deficit of $166.2 billion in the second quarter. The shortfall has swelled to nearly 6 percent of U.S. GDP, its biggest share ever, which means the United States must continue to draw somewhere between $3 billion and $5 billion in working capital daily just to plug the gap.

...more...

[54anickel]

49. Hahaha! Accord for Sustainable Growth, modernizing BW institutions,

Free trade and open markets worldwide. Was he not listening to anything being said by China, Japan and Malaysia, etc?

[UpInArms]

50. SnowJob Listen?

HahahahahahahaHohohohohohohoHehehehehehehehe!

You make me LOL!

[54anickel]

48. STILL TRYING TO HUSTLE THE EAST

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Bonner/nov192004.html

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: When you get right down to it, every war has stemmed from a mass of people struggling for power...and once the masses get started, there’s no stopping them. Bill Bonner shows us how absolute power corrupts absolutely...

STILL TRYING TO HUSTLE THE EAST
by Bill Bonner

Now it is not good for the Christian's health
to hustle the area in brown
for the Christian riles and the Aryan smiles
and it weareth the Christian down

And the end of the fight
is a tombstone white
with the name of the late deceased --
and the epitaph drear:
"A fool lies here
who tried to hustle the East!"
-Rudyard Kipling

The foreign press seems to have taken to the U.S. grunt in Iraq as if he were John Wayne fighting the Apache. They seem almost to admire the way GIs spit and curse, and “kick butt.” "Our job is to destroy things," said one budding Sherman to an English reporter. The European can't help but be impressed; he wishes he could destroy as much.

But the foreigners root for the Apache in films, and for the Iraqi in real life. Who can blame them? In a contest of David vs. Goliath, who takes Goliath's side? That is the trouble one of the perverse curiosities of this world: You go to all the trouble to get on top of it, only to amuse your friends by falling off.

Iraqis are overwhelmingly outgunned. They are up against the world's greatest military power. In comparison, they are practically unarmed. It is amazing they fight at all; for every one American they bring down, nearly 50 of their own men get stretched out. Newspaper photos typically show GIs in some compromising position. They are either torturing prisoners, kicking dead bodies, or shooting unarmed Arabs.

It was not the first time people tried to do good in the Near East.

more...

[54anickel]

51. Gold futures edge closer to $450

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={CE73C5DA-05B6-40DF-9F84-F997616A85F6}

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures edged closer to $450 an ounce Monday morning, with the G-20 meeting over the weekend failing to provide any indication that U.S. officials are willing to intervene to stop the decline in the dollar.

The dollar edged higher against the yen, but lower against the euro Monday after a weekend meeting of several of the world's leading finance ministers ended with little sign of intervention to boost a flagging dollar. See Currencies.

"The main focus appears to be the G-20 statement which referred to the U.S. budget deficit, fluctuating oil prices, economic imbalances and 'geo-political concerns,' and U.S. officials' rejection to denounce the dollar's 'volatile' moves," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.

The only mention of currencies was a recommendation that emerging Asian economies allow their exchange rates to become more flexible, which could prove "positive for gold in the future with growing demand from the Asian nations, primarily India and China," he said.

snip>

From here, "$450 still appears to be the market's target," said Moore. Prices should see support at the $440 level, but may pull back to $425 before making further advances, he warned.

more...


The season’s splurge: sold if it’s gold

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1041120/asp/calcutta/story_4006564.asp

The lure of the yellow metal has never been stronger. And for once, price is no deterrent.

Even as gold prices touched a 16-year high of Rs 6,500 a kg this Dhanteras, Calcuttans bought jewellery worth around Rs 100 crore — 20 per cent more that last year’s figure.

“Had gold prices not appreciated by 41 per cent in the past three years, the growth would have been at least 25 to 30 per cent,” says Sankar Sen, joint general secretary, Swarna Shilpi Bachao Committee and CEO of Senco Gold Jewellers.

This year also saw Bengalis turn out in large numbers to buy jewellery on Dhanteras and Diwali. According to Premjit Sengupta, regional manager (east) of Diamond Trading Corporation, jewellery sales this year surpassed expectations by 25 per cent.

snip>

“Those who have stopped investing in banks because of low interest rates and consider stock markets a risky proposition, are investing in gold. With an annual return of 14 per cent, the investment stays with you and can be encashed anywhere in the world,” explains Ajmera.

[UpInArms]

60. closed at $449/oz

1:44pm 11/22/04 DEC GOLD UP $2, CLOSES AT $449/OZ, NEAR THE DAY'S HIGH

[54anickel]

61. HA! They're doing a good job of limiting the gains. Been guarding

that $450 mark pretty well the last couple of days. Still smells like a bit of a sucker's rally though.

[54anickel]

53. Tokyo stocks biggest drop in 3 months

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/22/news/international/markets_japan.reut/index.htm

Benchmark average down more than 2%, triggered by the dollar's tumble against the yen.
November 22, 2004: 7:19 AM EST

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei fell more than two percent Monday, its biggest one-day drop in three months, on broad selling triggered by the dollar's tumble against the yen.

The benchmark Nikkei average lost 2.11 percent or 233.45 points to 10,849.39 and the broader TOPIX index shed 1.8 percent to 1,089.77. For both indices it was their biggest drop since Aug 13.

Declining shares far outnumbered gainers 1,384 to 144.

snip>

"With the outlook for currencies so unclear, it's going to be hard for buyers to come forward," said Joji Maki, senior director at Baring Asset Management Japan.

A strong yen reduces the value of Japanese companies' overseas profits and makes their products less competitive abroad. Since exporters have been leading Japan's recovery, any fall in their earnings could affect the overall economy.

more...

[TrogL]

54. Loonie Watch/huh?

The loonie's doing its skyrocket imitation again. CBC said there were really kewl consumer economic numbers but I didn't hear anything to justify these kind of gains.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s

It's gained half a cent in two hours.

:wtf:

[Spazito]

56. I think it is because of cumulative reports...

budget surplus, foreign interest in Canadian commodities, consumer spending up in September in reverse of expectations and, of course, the (mis)management of the US debt.

[54anickel]

58. 12:30 update

Dow 10,439.47 -17.44 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,061.71 -8.92 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,169.07 -1.27 (-0.11%)
10-yr Bond 4.182% -0.014
30-yr Bond 4.845% -0.03
NYSE Volume 604,089,000
Nasdaq Volume 937,747,000

12:00PM : In what has amounted to a relatively quiet and uneventful morning of trade, the major indices have hovered in negative territory on account of few upside catalysts, mixed breadth figures, and split industry leadership... Market participants have begun to clear out on account of the Thanksgiving holiday and this has translated into listless trading action... Groups such as financial and energy have seen their modest gains offset by pronounced selling in technology... A study showing slower year-over-year growth in worldwide PC unit sales has been the largest drag on the sector...
Computer hardware, however, has found some buying interest after Piper Jaffray re-evaluated the impact Apple Computer's (AAPL 61.33 +6.16) iPods have had on former PC owners and subsequently raised its price target on the stock to $100 (from $52)... Blue chip groups that have performed well have included consumer staples, utility, transportation and materials... Energy has also caught a bid despite a recent downward move in the price of crude oil ($48.50/bbl -$0.39)... Finally, homebuilding has demonstrated relative strength ahead of tomorrow morning's Existing Home Sales data...

Analysts expect October's reading to match last month's figure of 6.75 mln...NYSE Adv/Dec 1660/1472, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1320/1609

11:30AM : More of the same for the averages as equities extend last Friday's losses... Meanwhile, investors' reactions to the pending Oracle (ORCL 12.57 -0.18) takeover of PeopleSoft (PSFT 23.30 +0.13) have remained mixed following last week's deadline... A majority (61%) of PeopleSoft shareholders have backed Oracle's $9.2 bln takeover offer at $24 a share, but PeopleSoft's board of directors has held firm to its standpoint that the tender is still too low...

The next likely event is a hearing on Wednesday - Oracle has announced the likelihood of a hearing in Delaware in an attempt to dismantle PeopleSoft management's poison pill that has so far prevented the deal from consummating on Oracle's terms...NYSE Adv/Dec 1586/1510, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1277/1585

11:00AM : Stocks drop back into negative territory after flirting with the unchanged mark at the bottom of the last hour... However, this morning's largely bearish bias has becomed varied in the last half hour, as advancers on the NYSE now outpace decliners 16 to 13 while declining issues on the Nasdaq still hold a 15 to 12 edge over advancers... Meanwhile, the computer hardware group has caught an early bid on the heels of comments coming out of Piper Jaffray regarding Apple Computer (AAPL 61.45 +6.28)...

The broker raised its price target on the computer maker to $100 from $52 and raised its FY05-06 earnings estimates above consensus following a six-week survey... The study showed that 13% of the 200 iPod buyers (former PC users) surveyed in the sample that have recently purchased an iPod, have either already bought a Mac (6.0%) or are planning to buy a Mac within the next 12 months (7.0%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1644/1368, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1242/1568

[UpInArms]

59. 1:45 EST and everybody's happy!

Dow 10,481.66 +24.75 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,078.03 +7.40 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,175.24 +4.90 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.180% -0.016

NYSE Volume 819,473,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,225,794,000

1:30PM: Buyers pick up the pace as the market averages touch their best levels of the session... Earnings reports today have been few in number, but the largest companies - Campbell Soup (CPB 28.80 +1.44) and Toys R Us (TOY 19.69 +0.33) - have turned in better than expected results ... As two of the only seven S&P constituents to report earnings this week, the better than expected results have added some validation to this quarter's overall solid earnings picture for the broader market, joining the ranks of 298 other S&P components that also beat analysts' forecasts for the period...

The combined Q3 (Sept) growth rate for the S&P 500 sits around 16.8%, which is substantially better than analysts' forecasts of about 14.8% when the third quarter began and edges the 16.7% consensus growth rate many analysts had forecasted at the end of last week...NYSE Adv/Dec 1856/1390, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1523/1493

1:00PM: The broader averages catch a bounce but lackluster conviction keeps the indices mixed... The hardest hit has been the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has seen substantial weakness within several groups... One area in particular has been the internet search shares, after news surfaced that Google's (GOOG 163.95 -5.45) founders and top executives had filed plans to sell 16.6 mln shares over the next 18 months... The announcement sent another ripple effect through the space, sending Google shares through a technical support level which took the stock to a fresh 4-week low below $164.00 a share...

Trading lower in sympathy has been rival Yahoo! (YHOO 36.00 -0.15)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1747/1467, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1365/1614

except the buck

Last trade 83.15 Change -0.16 (-0.19%)

Settle 83.31 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.27 Previous Close 83.31

High 83.39 Low 83.08

Last tick: 2004-11-22 13:13:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

62. Ewww, another new low! Looks like it flatlined now.

[UpInArms]

63. Clear!

[UpInArms]

64. 2:13 EST - Look Ma! No Hands!

Dow 10,506.71 +49.80 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,083.97 +13.34 (+0.64%)
S&P 500 1,178.02 +7.68 (+0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.167% -0.029

NYSE Volume 908,839,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,333,677,00

2:00PM: Major indices catch a another wave of buying interest in afternoon trading and push to new highs... Although the past hour's advance looks large from an absolute perspective, it's imporant to point out that it's small from an absolute standpoint... Light volumes ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday have created choppy trading conditions... Breadth figures now hold a more bullish bias across the board for the first time today with advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq holding a slight edge over decliners...

New highs have outpaced new lows on the Big Board and Composite Index 135 to 9 and 98 to 22, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 2077/1190, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1650/1388

[54anickel]

65. China Widens Economic Role in Latin America

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/20/international/asia/20china.html?oref=login&oref=login&oref=login&th

snip>

Driven by one the largest and most sustained economic expansions in history, and facing bottlenecks and shortages in Asia, China is increasingly turning to South America as a supplier. It is busy buying huge quantities of iron ore, bauxite, soybeans, timber, zinc and manganese in Brazil. It is vying for tin in Bolivia, oil in Venezuela and copper here in Chile, where last month it displaced the United States as the leading market for Chilean exports.

While President Bush is spending the weekend here for the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, President Hu Jintao of China is here in the midst of a two-week visit to Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Cuba. In the course of it, he has announced more than $30 billion in new investments and signed long-term contracts that will guarantee China supplies of the vital materials it needs for its factories.

The United States, preoccupied with the worsening situation in Iraq, seems to have attached little importance to China's rising profile in the region. If anything, increased trade between Latin America and China has been welcomed as a means to reduce pressure on the United States to underwrite economic reforms, with geopolitical considerations pushed to the background.

"On the diplomatic side, the Chinese are quietly but persistently and effectively operating just under the U.S. radar screen," said Richard Feinberg, who was the chief Latin America adviser at the National Security Council during the Clinton administration. "South America is obviously drifting, and diplomatic flirtations with China would tend to underscore the potential for divergences with Washington."

snip>

The Brazilian government has made clear that it views closer ties with China as a card that can be played to offset American influence and trade dominance. While not suggesting that China could soon replace the United States as Brazil's main customer and partner, the aim is to force trade and other concessions from the United States and rich industrialized nations.

more...

[54anickel]

66. Found a great new dollar chart!

:evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

68. Oopsie! Houston, We have a PROBLEM!

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6554930/

Bankruptcies rock city housing
Officials hire legal help as concerns escalate over federal funding

excerpt:

The City of Houston issues HUD-funded Community Development Block Grants for a variety of purposes.

Sowell's projects already had private funding in place, and the city used federal funds to provide gap financing to cover the difference.

Bank of America is the lead private-sector lender on both city-assisted projects now operating under bankruptcy protection.
In 2000, Three Properties Ltd. received $3.1 million in federal funds in the form of a second-lien loan negotiated by the city. The business entity filed for Chapter 11 in August 2004 and went into foreclosure. Bank of America purchased the Three Properties project for $5.6 million on Nov. 2, according to attorney Randy Williams of law firm Thompson & Knight LLP, who represents the bank.
In 2001, Hollister Road Investments Ltd. received similar funding to acquire the Summercrest Apartments on Hollister Road. The business filed for Chapter 11 on Oct. 1, 2004. Williams expects Hollister Road will go into foreclosure within the near future.

As secondary lien holder in both cases, the city's interests take a back seat to those of the bank.

Kevin Davis, a spokesman for the city's Housing and Community Development Department, identifies three areas of concern -- securing the future of tenants, protecting the city's interests and preserving the affordable housing status of the projects.

According to Davis, 13 multifamily housing projects are currently receiving CDBG funding from the city, including those run by Sowell.

Davis says while it isn't the first time, it is rare for an affordable housing developer with these types of grants to default.

Financial loss is secondary to the potential negative impact on the city's overall affordable housing operations, Davis says.

"There is a possibility for a financial loss, but more importantly losing the affordable restrictions on the properties could impact our overall affordable housing stock," he says. "However it ends up, in the end there is the risk of losing the affordability restriction, which the city is hoping to avoid."

...more...

Unscrupulous developers are dreadful - especially in the subsidized housing markets. They allow maintenance to be "deferred", take the funds and run. Then then "housing developments" subsidized by the taxpayers fall into decay and then get "red-tagged" leaving the most needy high and dry.

Saw a lot of this in the 80s and early 90s.

:(

[54anickel]

67. WHY GOLD?

http://newyorker.com/talk/content/?041129ta_talk_surowiecki

One of the perks of stardom is the indulgence of unusual requests. Ozzy Osbourne used to require the presence backstage of an ear, nose, and throat specialist who could administer B-12 shots. Guns N’ Roses demanded Dom Pérignon and Wonder Bread. For Van Halen, it was a bowl of M&M’s—with all the brown ones removed. Then, there was Bette Midler, who, when she toured Europe in the late seventies, insisted on being paid not in dollars or pounds or francs but in gold. It was a fashionable extravagance. With inflation devastating the value of national currencies, Western economies in the dumps, and oil prices soaring because of tension in the Middle East, anxious investors had fled to the security that supposedly only gold could provide. An ounce of gold, at its peak, in 1980, was worth eight hundred and fifty dollars.

That was a long time ago, and, as far as we know, Usher has yet to pester his promoters for Krugerrands, but economic worries have recently prompted investors to start coveting gold again. The weakness of the dollar, America’s enormous trade deficit, and war in the Middle East have sent the price of gold up forty per cent in the past two years, and last week it hit a sixteen-year high of four hundred and forty-five dollars an ounce. In the speculative imagination, gold remains the best hedge against Armageddon.

It also remains a testament to the tenacity of popular delusion. What is gold, after all? Strictly speaking, it’s a commodity, like oil, steel, or lead, albeit not an especially useful one. There’s a steady but small demand for gold as an industrial product—for consumer electronics, computers, and dental work—and as jewelry, particularly in India, which now buys twenty per cent of the world’s annual gold output. And there’s a steady supply. Since 1970, world production has nearly doubled, thanks to mining companies that tear up mountainsides every year in search of it.

Yet the price of gold has little to do with these two variables. To true believers—known as “gold bugs”—the idea that gold is a commodity is rank heresy. They prefer to think of gold as the planet’s most reliable currency, a stable, ineradicable source of wealth, whose value will endure no matter what comes to pass.

It’s hard to square this faith with what has happened to the price of gold in the past two decades. It has been a terrible investment. Even with the recent surge, it’s up zero per cent since 1988, while the S. & P. 500 has almost quadrupled. Gold’s buying power has plummeted, too. In 1980, ten ounces of gold would have bought you a nice car. Today, it would get you a nice bike. The gold bugs have a handy explanation: gold is a victim of market manipulation and bad press. Wall Street and the world’s central banks are, apparently, “enemies of gold,” holding gold prices down in order to prop up people’s confidence in the paper-money system. One gold bug even filed a lawsuit against various government officials and big banks alleging a conspiracy to sabotage gold prices with surreptitious sales. Another compared a skeptical journalist to Joseph Goebbels.

more...

[RawMaterials]

69. "WHY GOLD?" Cont...

Gold investors like to pride themselves on being sober realists. The irony is that buying gold is the purest form of speculation. If you invest in a company, you’re investing in machinery, technology, and people. If you buy steel, you’re investing in something that people need. But if you invest in gold you’re basically betting that someday a greater fool will come along, who thinks gold is worth more than you do. You’re buying into a collective hallucination—exactly what those dot-com investors did in the late nineties. One could say that gold is the biggest, most durable bubble in history. Someday, even this one may pop.

[Chicago Democrat]

70. Its pretty and moderately useful; the lack of dividends and the security

factor are big drawbacks. It has been, and will continue to be a store of value.

Now if say nuclear warfare happenes and we are all mostly dead; I'm sure a can of beans will become much more valuable than gold to the poor survivors. That doesn't mean we should all buy canned goods either.

[54anickel]

72. Heh-heh, but isn't that what nearly all investments have become, a bet

that someday a greater fool will come along?
Our nation's wealth has been transformed from savings to investments to speculative bets. It's all speculation these days. You no longer invest in machinery, technology and people. You place bets on how well they manage their books, debts and hedges, constantly pushing them to show growth in earnings, report after report, after report. Sound business practices no longer matter, people don't invest in companies for the long-haul because they actually believe in what they produce and how they are managed. It's all one big casino. As for me, I'm more than happy to be long on gold. B-)

[54anickel]

71. Closing, better late than never ;-) Not much to get excited over anyway

But look at that buck start to fly. Who do you suppose is the wing beneath its wings tonight?

Dow 10,489.42 +32.51 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,085.19 +14.56 (+0.70%)
S&P 500 1,177.24 +6.90 (+0.59%)
10-yr Bond 4.165% -0.031
30-yr Bond 4.826% -0.049
NYSE Volume 1,390,672,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,932,680,000

Close Dow +32.51 at 10489.42, S&P +6.90 at 1177.24, Nasdaq +14.56 at 2085.19: The market showed some resilience, paring early morning losses as end-of-the year optimism and short-covering helped keep stocks in positive territory... Breadth figures began the day on a bearish note, but reversed course in mid afternoon and finished on a positive note... Piper Jaffray's upbeat comments and a price target increase (to $100 from $52) on Apple Computer (AAPL 61.31 +6.14) lit a fire under the computer hardware group, which lead technology, while utility, transportation, homebuilding, biotech and financial also found some buying interest...
In fact, virtually every sector finished in the green, with the only exception being the telecom service sector (-0.35%)... However, gains were very slim and were representative of the weak conviction on the part of buyers and the resulting low volumes ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday... The market initially started on a negative note, as crude oil ($48.80/bbl -$0.09) extended Friday's $2.51 gain in the early going only to sell off about as quickly... Trading in Japan also contributed to the sluggish start in the US as the Nikkei dropped 2.1% on ongoing concerns about a weak dollar...

And news about the IMF trimming its forecasts for world economic growth in 2005 (to 4.0% from 4.3%), due to record oil prices and the growing U.S. budget deficit, also laid the groundwork for the morning weakness... However, around 12 ET, the market began paring its losses and finished near the highs of the day despite the lack of obvious upside catalysts in the morning's news items...NYSE Adv/Dec 2284/1069, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1849/1277

3:30PM : Buyers remain an active bunch going into the close, erasing a morning spent entirely in the red and on track to end the day on a positive note... No significant earnings of note out after the close tonight but three S&P 500 components will be reporting quarterly results tomorrow morning... Analysts expect consumer non-cyclicals Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B 47.60 +0.30) and HJ Heinz (HNZ 38.23 +0.79) to report Q2 EPS of $0.79 and $0.59, respectively, while Deere & Co. (DE 68.87 -0.39) is expected to report Q4 earnings of $0.97 per share...

October existing home sales (consensus 6.75 mln), the only piece of economic data out tomorrow, will be out at 10:00 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 2169/1156, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1722/1377

3:00PM : Stocks stabilize a bit at current levels and continue to trade in moderately higher territory... And technology has received just enough of a boost to turn it positive while software has also turned the corner and is showing some modest gains for the sesssion... But both sub-sectors have done so with no help from industry bellwethers Microsoft (MSFT 26.57 -0.29) and Intel (INTC 24.01 -0.15)...

Intensified competition from Internet search giant Google (GOOG 163.90 -5.50) and market share erosion to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 20.90 +0.09) has left the world's largest software provider and the world's largest chip maker, respectively, struggling to catch a bid... NYSE Adv/Dec 2193/1115, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1723/1366

2:30PM : The market makes new highs as market internals continue to improve... Fear of missing out on a year-end rally has prompted buying interest and short-covering alike in the afternoon trade... Merger news has also been a reason for several stocks' climbs... A subsidiary of Loews Corp.'s (LTR 67.55 +0.92) said that it would buy Gulf South Pipeline for $1.14 bln from Entergy-Koch, a venture of Entergy Corp. (ETR 66.55 +1.04) and privately held Koch Energy Inc...

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS 45.93 +0.58) and ING Group N.V. have reached a deal by which Northern will acquire Baring Asset Management's Financial Services Group (FSG) for approximately $480 mln... Also, Alamosa Holdings Inc. (APCS 11.49 +0.74) has offered to buy regional wireless carrier AirGate PCS Inc. (PCSA 32.55 +4.94) for $355 mln...NYSE Adv/Dec 2178/1118, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1730/1325



And the buck - nearly straight up shot around 7:45 pm from 83.18

Last trade 83.33 Change -0.12 (-0.14%)

Settle 83.19 Settle Time 20:35

Open 83.17 Previous Close 83.31

High 83.36 Low 83.14

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-11-22 21:09:17 ET
30-min delayed quote.