STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 23 November

[ozymandius]

Tuesday November 23, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 347 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 36 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1097
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 22, 2004

Dow... 10,489.42 +32.51 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq... 2,085.19 +14.56 (+0.70%)
S&P 500... 1,177.24 +6.90 (+0.59%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.17% -0.03 (-0.74%)
Gold future... 449.00 +2.00 (+0.45%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. Economic `Armageddon' predicted

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

But you should hear what he's saying in private.

Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''

Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''

more...

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356

Aren't we already seeing signs of this? Ex: European investment influx slowing to a crawl; Siemens eyeing the possibility of scaling back if not pulling out 90% of its American operation.

[ozymandius]

2. Full of hyperbole - but it illustrates a point

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2004/1115.html

Here is what I am talking about:

On November 8, 2004, the Russian news organization ITAR-TASS reported that the Russian central bank has commenced selling US assets as part of its process of "diversifying" its currency reserves. The euro was specifically mentioned as a possible alternative to the US dollar. On the same day, as well as the day before, the British newspaper "Financial Times" reported that not only Russia, but India and China have begun selling their US assets as well.

-cut-

What does all of that mean?

It means, quite literally, that the dollar-dudu has finally hit the fan.

It remains to be seen whether this assault will be rapidly taken to its all-out conclusion, or if some behind-the-scenes agreements have been made since this ITAR_TAAS report whereby the current US administration was forced to make unknown concessions in return for the named countries' agreement to stop (or rather slow) this assault.

[UpInArms]

6. Euro hits new record high vs. dollar

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0F0AC1ED%2D7E8C%2D4292%2D9469%2D17497CE11FA7%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. dollar hit a new low vs. the shared European currency on Tuesday, with comments from a Russian central banker on holding more euros plus additional speculation about dollar weakness driving the move.

The euro reached a fresh high of $1.3091 vs. the dollar, while the dollar was slightly weaker at 102.91 yen.

The U.S. dollar also lost ground on the Swiss franc, the British pound and the Australian dollar.

The Interfax agency overnight quoted deputy Russian central bank chairman Alexey Ulyukayev as saying Russia will boost its share of central bank reserves held in euros at the expense of the dollar.

The official said that the euro reserves would be increased by three to five percentage points, due to the importance of the European market for Russia and the sharp slide in the US currency's value.

But the weak dollar trend was seen as more to blame, with the weekend Group of 20 meeting showing little signs of government intervention to bolster the ailing greenback.

"The backdrop has been to sell the dollar," said Gary Noone at Informa Global Markets.

...more...

[UpInArms]

44. Euro touches $1.31 for first time

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38314.4613558333-827643146&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Dollar bearishness continued as U.S. trading progressed Tuesday, pushing the euro-dollar to $1.31 for the first time since the common currency's 1999 launch. The dollar continues to fall as a means to rebalance the U.S. trade gap. Its decline against the euro was acclerated overnight when a Russian official said the central bank there is contemplating turning more currency reserves into euros.

[TrogL]

69. We need to start putting dates on these

they're getting as predictable as the "explosion in Baghdad" threads.

[54anickel]

18. Whoa, some interesting stats in there that I wasn't aware of. I knew it

was bad, but not THIS bad.

snip>

To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.

That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.

snip>

Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half the size of the economy.

Today the figure is 85 percent.

Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest rates, leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.

<end snip

Then they go on to say that Greenspin may allow inflation to wipe out half the debt in "real" terms, and how this will hurt the long-time lenders at fixed interest rates. Sheesh! That's the rest of the world that's been lending us $$$, the folks that have been buying repackaged mortgages from the GSEs (foreign banks again). Meanwhile NOTHING about how this will effect individuals! Higher unemployment, higher costs, still no "real" return to savers - if you want a "real" return on your money you'll again have to take on higher risk investing.

And you know, that's probably what Greenspin will do, assuming we don't crash. He and the rest of the monetarist were at odds with Volkers tactic of raising interest rates to smack down inflation. Can't do anything that might hurt the markets, ya know.

[UL_Approved]

3. We need to keep track of this more closely

The collapse of the U.S. economy would be one of the biggest tragedies that this country could face, short of nuclear war or a massive disease epidemic. The current policies will bankrupt this nation, literally. See if you can get some good graphs on the slump in the U.S. Dollar and other indicators. This is going to be very important in the coming months.

[UpInArms]

13. Good Morning UL_Approved!

How was your nap?

[54anickel]

21. **SNARF** Now I've got to clean the coffee off of my monitor - again!

on edit, damn my gif works in the preview screen. :-(

[UL_Approved]

70. What you talkin' about, Willis?

I don't get it.

[UpInArms]

78. you know, jokes are just never funny

if you have to explain them. :shakesheadsadly:

Where have you been, UL_Approved?

We (the SMW Marketeers) have been watching the fiscal policies of this mal-administration for years now - we have charts, graphs, historical evidence, articles, links, entire dossiers.

Have you been reading the daily thread long?

Did you just arrive with cognitive dissonance?

Glad to have you here, but what was with all those imperative orders you brought with you?

:hi:

[UL_Approved]

81. That was for casual observers

I know that those who post on economic issues are on top of the game. I was making reference to this for other people who come in and casually observe and who don't take this very seriously. I do have to laugh at the way my original post came off, though. Some guy coming in and giving orders when everybody has been on the job for a long time.

I do think that the econonic and fiscal issues here are bigger than the Iraq war. We brought down that country with the millitary. We could bring down the whole world if we have economic collapse.

[UpInArms]

83. thanks for the clarification

Some guy coming in and giving orders when everybody has been on the job for a long time.

That's kinda how it read to this daily poster.

Well, I guess to those who just dropped in for the first time - it's a great message:

Wake up, pay attention, take notes!

:hi:

[ozymandius]

4. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

This is really two columns in one. I have switched (call me a flip-flopper) the order of the two so as to bring the market summary first.

Today’s Market

U.S. stock indexes headed higher on Monday after a modest retreat in oil prices. Optimism is building with analysts believing that earnings will remain strong well into next year. This assumption is based on the fact the markets can absorb gradual Fed rate hikes. If the Fed continues to raise rates in order to protect the dollar the market will run into strong powerful headwinds coming from higher energy prices and higher interest rates. So far earnings have held up and have helped to bring money back into stocks. Profit at companies within the S&P 500 grew 16.8% in the third quarter. Fourth quarter profits are expected to increase by 15%, which is more than double the average of the past 20 years.

However, at the moment it is energy prices, not profits, that are driving the stock market. The major indexes and oil prices are trading in tandem. An example is last Friday when oil prices spiked by 5% triggering losses in the major averages. The S&P 500 lost 1.1%, its biggest loss since September 22 when a jump in oil prices triggered similar losses. The markets advanced mid-day after oil prices slipped $0.25 a barrel to $48.64 amid speculation that mild weather this winter will help refiners build heating oil supplies.

Now the first half of Jim's column.

Blue Gold

-cut-

For the last two decades the U.S. and the rest of the world have invested very little to develop and secure these necessities that are so casually taken for granted. From energy, water, and base metals, to forests and farmland have all been ignored by the financial markets. Bull markets run in cycles lasting 20-25 years. They are the product of supply and demand imbalances. The declining prices that accompany bear markets lead to a scarcity of new investment. Capacity shrinks, the industry consolidates and new investment dries up leading to decline. In the last two decades no new refineries have been built, very little has been spent on building new pipelines or power plants, building new mines, developing new cocoa or sugar plantations, or developing water infrastructures. Productive equipment in these areas has gone into disrepair, deteriorated or has been cannibalized, scrapped, or shut down. The mining and energy industry is suffering from a shortage of qualified geologists and engineers. Who wanted to go to college and study geology when there were fortunes to be made on Wall Street or in Silicon Valley? The natural resource industry is suffering from a dearth of qualified personnel.

-cut-

The crisis in water centers around three factors. They are listed below:

Water scarcity

Water quality

Water-related disasters

-cut-

Water Wars

When it comes to water there are no alternatives. Water is as much a political resource as it is a natural resource. Between nations it is a question of who controls it. The question of ownership and rights has provoked countless disputes, conflicts and wars throughout all of history. Water was a factor igniting the Six Day War of 1967. The Arab League became angered after Israel’s construction of its National Water Carrier appropriated much of the water of the Jordan River for use in Israel. Today a bitter quarrel is emerging between Turkey and its nearby neighbors, Syria and Iraq, over the flow of water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The Southwest Anatolia Project, a major engineering feat, will place 22 large dams and reservoirs along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers at the top of their source in Turkey. Turkey in essence will control the flow of water along these historic rivers impacting Syria and Iraq. The Euphrates is Syria’s primary source of water. What is left over goes to Iraq. There is no formal agreement between the three states to share the water.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.98 Change -0.21 (-0.25%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/futures/content/showcontent.asp?menu=macro&idproveidor=110100

USDJPY - INTERVENTION YES OR NO?

Intervention Yes or No?
By Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien

Only a month ago the 103 level in the USD/JPY seemed certain to invite MOF intervention. Yet with 106, 105, 104 and now 103 falling like a set of dominos, many traders are wondering if Japan’s Ministry of Finance will intervene at all. Since MoF’s last intervention in March of 2004 the political and economic landscapes have greatly changed. In this report we take a closer look at some of the new issues facing
Japan that are turning intervention into a more problematic policy choice for the country than in the past. While few analysts believe that Japan’s MoF has abandoned intervention altogether, many traders believe that Japan may be waiting for a greater sense of global consensus before re-entering the FX markets to support the dollar. We examine the specific factors that could trigger such a move and try to answer the question – intervention yes or no?


Reasons Against MoF Intervention
1. Move to Asian Trade - Since 1990 to present, China’s and other Asian countries’ share of the Japanese export market increased from 1/3rd (31.1%) to nearly a ½ (48.6%). Exports to China and Hong Kong rose from 6.7% to almost 20% (19.3%) of total Japanese exports. Looking deeper into the figures we can see that Japan’s exports to China alone are on the verge of surpassing US market share. The implications of this massive shift to greater intra-Asian trade are enormous. One of the key differences between trade with Asia and trade with the US and Europe is the fact that most trade settlements in Asia are made in yen rather than dollars. This dynamic creates a “natural hedge” for Japanese exporters who do not have to worry about the competitive pressures of currency appreciation in what is essentially a yen denominated zone. As Asia continues to become a progressively bigger part of the Japanese export market and therefore a bigger contributor to Japanese corporate profits, the need for USD/JPY intervention by the MOF will decrease. With seemingly insurmountable Current Account and Federal Budget deficits facing US economy for the foreseeable future, Japan may have made a strategic decision that the future path to its economic growth lies in Asia. As the value of the US market declines in importance to Japan, the need for aggressive MOF intervention will decrease significantly.

2. Natural input resources such as oil and steel are cheaper. - Since the 1980’s, Japan has been very diligent at reducing oil as the prime component of its energy needs Japan's dependence on oil stood at 77% before the first oil crisis of 1973, but now stands at less than 50%. This decline reflects the progress of the industrial sector in the use of alternative energy resources such as nuclear power. Nevertheless, Japan must still import 99.8% of its oil and is highly vulnerable to a rise in energy costs, which greatly impact its broad industrial sector. Because oil is denominated in dollars a strong yen greatly reduces the negative impact on the Japanese economy of sharply higher natural resource inputs such as oil or steel. For example, in yen terms, imported crude oil prices were 50.5% lower in September 2004 than at their peak in the 1980s when a barrel of West Texas Intermediate changed hands for US$35.80 per barrel. The strong yen shows its value even when we compare present prices to 1980’s average – a period during which oil prices were relatively low. In contrast to the 1980’s average of US$23.80 per barrel, the current yen denominated prices are actually 17.7% lower. As the market is starts to realize that due to restrained supply and ever growing demand from China, oil prices may remain higher than $40 per barrel for a long time to come, Japan’s decision not to intervene in the FX market may be reinforced. Indeed looking at the latest data from the Japanese Import Price Index we note that although oil prices remained at record highs throughout the month of October, Japanese oil costs actually declined by -2.6% helping to drive the decline in the overall index to –0.8% as yen appreciated against the dollar.

3.Political Pressure from Europe and rest of Asia. - "I would only like to say it is quite a problem, of course, if you have some international movements in foreign exchange relations and you have only one part of the world (Europe) who is really paying the bill for it,” so noted a justly frustrated Klaus Liebscher, who is a member of ECB Governing Council. With the euro appreciating from 1.24 to 1.30 in a matter of weeks, many European policy markers are becoming concerned that the euro alone is bearing the brunt of foreign exchange realignment. Most global experts agree that the dollar must decline against the major currencies in order to alleviate the US Current Account deficit. However, if the dollar declines appreciably more against the euro than the yen then European exports will be disproportionately punished in the global marketplace. Additionally, as the US tries to pressure China to revalue the Renminbi, Japanese officials would be hard pressed to initiate a major intervention move that could also put them on the radar for world scrutiny.

...more (with a chart of BoJ interventions)...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38314.3187217014-827627313&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Euro hits record high at $1.3090; focus on reserves

LONDON (CBS.MW) -- The euro spiked to a record high against the dollar at $1.3090. Currency analysts attributed some of the move to expectations in the markets that central banks have been adjusting and will continue to adjust reserves to reduce dollar exposure. "The backdrop has been to sell the dollar," said Gary Noone at Informa Global Markets. The dollar was weaker across the major currencies on Tuesday. On Monday, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said euro reserves would be increased by three to five percentage points.

Dollar is definitely looking sickly.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

7. Dollar "achieving" new low of 82.87

Last trade 82.87 Change -0.32 (-0.38%)

Settle 83.19 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.43 Previous Close 83.19

High 83.54 Low 82.87

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-23 07:38:33 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

9. YIKES! I see gold got smacked down from 449.50 too. They're getting

pretty good!

[UpInArms]

17. whackin' it with a stick

9:51am 11/23/04 DEC GOLD FALLS $1.10 TO $447.90/OZ IN MORNING NY TRADE

[54anickel]

29. Fools, I wonder if some big money got on the wrong side of that

$450 bet? Meanwhile they wind the spring tighter and tighter.

[alexisfree]

30. WOWIE!

and they said I was nuts on investing in gold bars!!!:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[54anickel]

33. Tech "targets" on the dollar from INO -

The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this fall's decline. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bearish mode and rising signaling that additional weakness is possible near- term. If the decline continues, the June 1995 low crossing at 80.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has likely been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

Meanwhile it tries to claw back up to 83.00, which it hasn't been able to "achieve" since 9:00am. Last try it fell just short, from looking at the chart anyway.

Last trade 82.89 Change -0.30 (-0.36%)

Settle 83.19 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.43 Previous Close 83.19

High 83.54 Low 82.81

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-11-23 10:06:43 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

8. Treasury prices lower ahead of 2-year note auction

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38314.3797942593-827634072&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Under pressure ahead of an afternoon auction of 2-year notes, Treasury prices were lower in early U.S. trade. The benchmark 10-year note was off 6/32 at 100 13/32. Its yield ($TNX) , used in determining consumer and corporate loan rates, climbed to 4.2 percent.

[UpInArms]

19. Treasury market under pressure ahead of auction ($24 Billion!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAAAC6156%2DFF85%2D4E2A%2D8C59%2D27C6DCB38CD2%7D&siteid=mktw

Short-term yields highest this year
Treasury market under pressure ahead of auction

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - Under pressure ahead of an auction of $24 billion in 2-year notes, short-term yields on Tuesday soared to their highest level this year.

At 9:50 a.m. Eastern, the 2-year note was off 1/32 at 99 4/32, its yield, which moves in the opposite direction of price, stood at 2.98 percent.

The benchmark 10-year note fell 7/32 to 100 12/32, its yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) rising to 4.2 percent.

The Treasury market posted losses amid speculation that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates another 25 basis points, to 2.25 percent, when monetary policy makers meet next month.

There is "nothing in Fed comments or data suggesting they won't move in December;" said Peter McTeague, an interest-rate strategist with RBS Greenwich Capital.

...a bit more...

[54anickel]

34. HA! Same question as the last auction -

Suppose you held an auction, and nobody showed up? Hope old Ben's got the printing press warmed up!

[ozymandius]

10. Chain Store Sales Rise in Latest Week

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales rose modestly in the third week of November, just before the critical holiday shopping period gets underway. Sales at major retailers rose by 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended Nov. 20, according to Redbook Research. Sales in November to-date were up 0.1 percent compared with the same period in October, Redbook said.

"Some stores expressed disappointment, saying the week had been slower than the previous one and had thwarted expectations for a steady volume escalation into Thanksgiving," the report said.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/nm/20041123/bs_nm/economy_retail_redbook_dc&sid=95609869

[UpInArms]

11. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:15 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Still shaping up to be a modestly lower open for the cash market as light volumes are expected across the board heading into the holiday weekend...

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Still shaping up to be a modestly flat to lower open for equities... Cautious analysts calls in the tech sector, in particular a downgrade on Intel (INTC), could weigh on several related issues in the early going.

7:59AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures market versus fair value exhibiting a mixed tone this morning, suggesting a relatively flat open for the cash market... The only piece of economic data out this morning - October existing home sales (consensus 6.75 mln) - will be out at 10:00 ET.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's rebound. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is beginning to turn down hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1559.40 then Monday's low crossing at 1547 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 3.00 pts. at 1568.50 as of 5:50 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rebound and is breaking out below initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1178.06. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned down signaling that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends its decline off last week's high, a test of the 20-day moving average crossing at 1161.44 is the next downside target. If this fall's rally resumes, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. The December S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 pts. at 1176.80 as of 5:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

12. 9:37 EST markets are open

Dow 10,495.64 +6.22 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,081.67 -3.52 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,176.66 -0.58 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.209% +0.044

NYSE Volume 43,835,000
Nasdaq Volume 129,333,000

[loudsue]

14. No point in doing CPR on that $$$ ..... it looks like it's gonna be DOA.

Good mornin', Marketeers!! Thanks so much for keeping us up to speed on the world scene!! :loveya:

Let's send this one back up to the top!!

:kick::kick::kick::kick:

[ewagner]

15. Just another kick

I lurk but usually don't post because you guys are much better at it.

anyway

:kick:

[UpInArms]

16. H-P to Book $200 Million Charge for Job Cuts

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20041123-000289-0721



WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) said Tuesday that it expects to incur roughly $200 million in expenses related to work force reductions expected to occur during the first half of fiscal 2005.

The computer company said in a document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that as a part of their ongoing cost structure management, its various businesses routinely review the size of their work forces and make adjustments they deem appropriate after evaluating a variety of factors.

Hewlett-Packard said that the reductions will occur across its businesses and will have a net impact of roughly 4 cents a share in the period.

[54anickel]

26. Huh? Booking an expense for work force reductions? I've been outta

the bean-counting business for a pretty long time, but some of the stuff companies have been expensing lately seem pretty creative compared to the GAAP I grew up with.

Any accountants out there that can explain how this works?

[UpInArms]

20. Existing homes sales fall 0.1% in October

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38314.4213536921-827638816&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Existing homes sales fell 0.1 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.75 million units, above the expectations of 6.73 million units, but slightly behind the upwardly revised September level of 6.76 million units, said the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday. In the past year, existng home sales have risen 5.6 percent. The national median home sale price was $187,000 in October, up 8.8 percent from a year earlier. David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said he expected a bounce back from hurricane-devastated areas in the coming months which had not happened in October.

10:08am 11/23/04 DOLLAR AT 103.16 YEN VS. 103.23 BEFORE U.S. HOME DATA

[UpInArms]

25. U.S. home data add to dollar's woes

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38314.426061331-827639302&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar extended its decline modestly in the wake of a U.S. report that showed existing home sales fell slightly. Sales were reported below some Wall Street expectations, at a rate of 6.75 million homes last month. The dollar slipped to 103.16 yen vs. 103.23 yen before the report. The euro was at $1.3087 vs. $1.3075. The euro earlier hit a fresh record high at $1.3092.

[UpInArms]

22. 10:12 EST numbers (markets love bad news?)

Dow 10,500.21 +10.79 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,089.44 +4.25 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,178.82 +1.58 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.198% +0.033

NYSE Volume 202,162,000
Nasdaq Volume 419,651,000

[salin]

23. don't know that one tenth of one percent

= the market loving anything... just sorta sidewise movement...

[UpInArms]

24. just such a spiky looking movement

from -15 to +15 :shrug:

[MrUnderhill]

28. What bad news?

[UpInArms]

31. have you checked the dollar today? ..... eom

[MrUnderhill]

36. Seems to be down a bit. But hard;y "bad news"

You would expect the markets to react positively to a gently declining dollar and negatively to a rapidly declining dollar.

All I've seen today (so far) is mild variations on both market levels (+/- 15 pts on the Dow) and the Dollar.

But the dollar usually reacts to news... it isn't usually "news" in itself. I thought some bad numbers had come out.

[UpInArms]

38. no real bad numbers today - we'll wait for tomorrow for that

:D (just kidding)

but reports for tomorrow:

Nov 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct - 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% -
Nov 24 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/20 - 335K 335K 334K -
Nov 24 9:45 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. Nov - 95.5 96.0 95.5 -
Nov 24 10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index Oct - 37 37 36 -
Nov 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Oct - 1200K 1200K 1206K -

[54anickel]

43. Look at the 1 year chart. "Gentle" is what we had from May to Oct, this

is looking like last year around the same time, starting from a lower value, of course. ;-)

But your expectation makes sense, which makes this all the more spooky. I thought the markets would be quite bullish through the end of the year - lower buck = higher profits, gotta get in on the year end rally, wouldn't want to miss out, and all that other bullish talk they've been spewing.

I also think that for now, the dollar is the "news" rather than reacting to it.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12

[UpInArms]

47. I agree, 54anickel,

the dollar is the "news" rather than reacting to it.

It would seem that with the G20 making absolutely no move to reinforce the dollar, with all the countries involved having zero confidence in this mal-administration's protest to "support the strong dollar" and the fallback to the VooDooDoo Economics of RayGun, that some very clear thinking economists need to step to the plate and get proactive about what our country will be facing in the near term.

[UpInArms]

53. White House econ adviser Stephen Friedman to leave - AP (rat leaving ship?

(speaking of this mal-administration)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/help/default.asp?page=support/help/reprint.asp&dist=reprints&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- White House economic adviser Stephen Friedman is going to give up his post, according to the Associated Press. He plans to return to the private sector, the report said, citing an unidentified administration official.

[54anickel]

56. Probably tired of banging his head against the wall, or should I say

against the outside of the new & improved second term bubble the little idiot has crawled into.

Great toon today by the way. B-)

[Pax Argent]

107. MrUnderhill

Didn't Frodo travel out of the Shire under that name?

Hmmmmm.....

[54anickel]

37. Loonie's trying to get a little closer to earth today. Air must of been

pretty thin up there. ;-)

[TrogL]

61. It's at it again

I'll post more in loonie watch.

[JNelson6563]

27. Another interesting day Marketeers

Well I did the unthinkable this morning. Kids left at 7am and I went back to bed! :-)

Now I'm back among the living and I see the markets are confused. At least the whack-a-mole team has kept gold from hitting the 450 barrier. Whew! Close call! They can't keep it at bay forever. I see it as unavoidable but I may be biased.

10:30 snapshot:

Dow 10,499.62 +10.20 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,088.45 +3.26 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,178.13 +0.89 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.196% +0.031

I wonder which way it will go? :shrug:

Julie

[alexisfree]

32. there goes back up!!!!!

kick it!!!

[54anickel]

35. Looks like 448.00 is the defense line...n/t

[UpInArms]

39. 10:55 EST numbers (old blather) and the buck

Dow 10,458.17 -31.25 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,079.19 -6.00 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,173.38 -3.86 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.192% +0.027

NYSE Volume 369,109,000
Nasdaq Volume 696,254,000

10:30AM: The major indices stage a reversal into positive territory following today's only piece of economic data... The National Association of Realtors released existing home sales for October of 6.75 mln, which matched analysts' forecasts and last month's reading but broke last year's sales record of 6.1 mln... Mortgage rates under 6% have certainly helped drive the pace of annual sales as many pundits continue to expect the homebuilding market to remain healthy in 2005 as well...

A lot depends on the pace of the Fed's tightening, but current conditions suggest solid demand as median prices continue to increase...NYSE Adv/Dec 1554/1337, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1529/1139

10:00AM: Stocks remain in negative territory despite a modest rebound in technology over the last few minutes... Meanwhile, Credit Suisse First Boston's downgrade on Intel (INTC 23.71 -0.39) to Underperform from Outperform continues to takes its toll on a select group of chipmakers... The broker, who also revised its price target to $22 (from $25) cited Intel's poor positioning for growth in the semiconductor space - in particular, its focus on more specialized communications and consumer chips that are still unprofitable rather than maintaining its strong leadership making central processing units...

CSFB also downgraded Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS 15.46 -0.49) and ON Semiconductor (ONNN 3.80 -0.15) to Neutral from Outperform and revised its rating on chipmaker Conexant (CNXT 1.90 -0.06) to Underperform from Neutral... In economic news, October existing home sales just came in down 0.1% at 6.75 mln, in line with the consensus of 6.75 mln...

Last trade 82.97 Change -0.22 (-0.26%)

Settle 83.19 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.43 Previous Close 83.19

High 83.54 Low 82.81

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-23 10:26:21 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

41. Well that was fast! What, 25 minutes since Julie's post?...n/t

[54anickel]

40. Eastward ho!

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

But it’s not just the Bay Area where homebuyers are pricing themselves out of the market. Statewide, only 19% can afford the median-priced home. That’s because the collective wisdom of the Golden State has pushed median single-family home prices from $185,000 to $405,000 in five years. It’s a miracle of modern finance that any homes get sold to anyone, median-priced or otherwise. Yet, last year California boasted record home sales on the back of an 18% increase in median home prices. No doubt financial innovations like low down payments, tricked up ARMs and interest-only mortgages bulked up median buying power to that of a movie star. But even that was not enough to stop the Eastward Migration of hybrid cars filled with fed-up Californians, bringing opportunity for Texas yoga studios and higher property taxes for the rest of us. You’d think more refugees would stop in New Mexico, a far more scenic state. Instead we have a Dallas realtor quoted in the LA Times saying, “"I'm flooded with clients from California.”

snip>

But the California problem is not just a Texas a problem. The same LA Times article explains their monster home prices this way: “The average California worker would need to save every penny he earned for more than eight years to buy the average house. In Wisconsin, that worker would need less than 2 1/2 years of income to pay cash for a house.”

They reporter performed this calculation because the Midwest is also a destination for Californians with their suitcases full of money and recipes for vegetarian bratwurst. In fact, the epidemic is nationwide, with homeowners from the expensive West and East coasts seeping into the middle of the country like water into a napkin. Take the Las Vegas housing market. That market got so hot that it perversely led to an apartment shortage. That’s because soaring land prices scared off apartment developers, thousands of existing apartments got converted to condos, and those looking to rent suddenly found themselves competing with the migrating swarm. The Fed Chairman calls this wealth creation. Odds are 3:1 that Las Vegas residents have another name for it.

snip>

Of course, the subprime market is a mere subset of the booming mortgage market. Home mortgage debt grew 9.8% in ’01, 11,9% in ’02 and 12.7% last year. The Fed’s numbers show that mortgage debt sustained its double digit pace the first half of this year.

Even with homeownership rates at world record levels, the forecasters at Freddie Mac think the growth story keeps going. In fact, Freddie is predicting that residential mortgage debt will expand by 13.4% next year and another 11.6% in 2006. If Freddie is right, by the end of 2006, mortgage debt will be in the ballpark of $10 trillion, or three times the 1995 level. That means that if Freddie is on the mark and we round up 2001 debt growth to 10%, the U.S. economy will have experienced six years of double-digit mortgage loan growth in a row. No wonder the mortgage industry is America's new growth industry.

more...

[UpInArms]

42. Oil futures climb back above $49

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8DCFEE94%2D5382%2D438A%2D8106%2D9A3759AACD37%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil futures climbed back above $49 a barrel early Tuesday with traders still nervous about the overall picture for worldwide petroleum supplies ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday and this week's U.S. inventory updates.

"The issues facing the oil markets aren't going away anytime soon and it's a long laundry list of worry," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

"Geopolitical troubles are front and center, and the continuing issues of old fashioned supply and demand are ever present," he said.

At last check, crude for January delivery rose to a high of $49.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was last at $49.20, up 56 cents. The contract hasn't closed above $49 in over two weeks.

December heating oil climbed 0.51 cent to trade at $1.45 a gallon, and December unleaded gasoline stood at $1.293 a gallon, up 0.36 cent.

Last week, Venezuela said it supports an Iranian proposal to cut oil output to support prices. OPEC's production quota, which excludes Iraq, is 27 million barrels.

...more...

10:55am 11/23/04 CRUDE FUTURES NEAR $50, TRADE AS HIGH AS $49.95

10:56am 11/23/04 JAN CRUDE LAST UP $1.26 AT $49.90/BRL

[54anickel]

45. Oh great! Why don't they make up their minds. Wasn't the talk last

week that we'd be seeing $35-40 levels?, that geopolitical troubles would be priced in at that level? :eyes:

[UpInArms]

48. missed the mark on that one, too, didn't they?

11:12am 11/23/04 JAN CRUDE UP $1.36 AT $50, HIGHEST SINCE NOV. 4

11:11am 11/23/04 JAN CRUDE HITS INTRADAY HIGH OF $50/BRL

[ozymandius]

54. Stocks Fall as Oil Approaches $50 a Bbl

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as crude oil prices climbed back toward $50 a barrel and tech bellwether Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC - news) dropped after investment bank CSFB downgraded the world's largest chip maker.

U.S. light crude shot up $1.21 to $49.85 a barrel ahead of Wednesday's U.S. inventory data and a long holiday weekend.

Meanwhile, Credit Suisse First Boston cut Intel Corp. (INTC.O) to "underperform" from "outperform." Intel shares fell 2.5 percent to $23.50.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[54anickel]

58. Ewww, Intel downgraded? And they didn't bother to take a pause at

neutral on the way down? Bwahahahaha!!!!

[54anickel]

46. HA! Love this quote - tomorrow should be a good day!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041123/0de89eef241efed7c086b3ed33e042bd_1.html

Strategists were expecting markets to churn as they gear up for gains later this week.

"The day before and the day after Thanksgiving have a strong history of being on the upside and we are looking for that to occur this year," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards.

"Looking out a week or so I would look for the market to do some stumbling around which will re-energize it for the good year end rally that usually continues into mid- to end-January."

[UpInArms]

50. all ye that believe in Tinkerbell, clap your hands!

would the fundamentals support that in the current week?

[ozymandius]

52. not at all

This statement is so much fun because it foretells a dizzying amount of hocus pocus headed our way to make these numbers jump through hoops. The fundamentals do not support the prospect of an extended rally.

[TrogL]

75. Joe Sixpack day trader doesn't understand fundamentals

[ozymandius]

51. We need to generate those year-end bonuses.

You know this is what brokers, investment managers and company insiders are doing.

[ozymandius]

49. China's central bank tells US not to blame others for economic woes

BEIJING, (AFP) - A senior Chinese central bank official has warned the United States not to blame other countries for its own economic difficulties, a report said.

Li Ruogu, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, also said in an interview with the Financial Times that foreign pressure would not force China to move faster on freeing up its exchange rate system.

"China's custom is that we never blame others for our own problem," Li was quoted as saying.

"For the past 26 years, we never put pressure or problems on to the world. The US has the reverse attitude, whenever they have a problem, they blame others."

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=2&u=/afp/20041123/bs_afp/china_us_economy_forex&sid=96001027

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan reacts to Chinese central bank's report.

[UpInArms]

57. just this mal-administration's location in the River of Denial ... eom

[RawMaterials]

60. why try to blame china

I thought thats what obl was for. TERROR, TERROR,TERROR(This would be a great bevis and buthead skit) LOL

[54anickel]

68. Perfect pic of Greenspin, Ozy! And one more quote from the article that

seems to tie into what I've been thinking, China will float when the expectations aren't there. They need the biggest "bang for the yuan" to make it worthwhile. They were able to catch the markets off-guard with the latest increase in interest rates, they'll want to be able to repeat that "element of surprise" when they revalue the yuan.

snip>

"Under heavy speculation we cannot move (towards greater flexibility) and under heavy external pressure we cannot," he said according to the report.

"So the best environment for us to gradually move towards a more flexible exchange rate is when people don't talk about it."

[54anickel]

71. Check out this quote from a more detailed article at FT

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f16a4694-3cb1-11d9-bb7b-00000e2511c8.html

snip>

Mr Li, who spoke before a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) forum last weekend, said China did not want to run trade surpluses or accumulate foreign currency reserves. Its reserves stand at $515bn.

“If there is a small deficit, we are not concerned. But certainly we don't want to run into the US situation of having a trade deficit of 6 per cent of GDP,” he said.

“That is not sustainable,” he added. “The appreciation of the RMB will not solve the problems of unemployment in the US because the cost of labour in China is only three per cent that of US labour. They should give up textiles, shoe-making and even agriculture probably.

“They should concentrate on sectors like aerospace and then sell those things to us and we would spend billions on this. We could easily balance the trade.”

[TrogL]

74. too late

Canada beat them to the punch. Bombardier is selling lots of planes to China.

In that industry you don't want to change horses in midstream because you end up having to stock parts for multiple aircraft types and certification (mechanics and pilots) becomes a nightmare.

[54anickel]

82. Damn! We were a day late and a dollar short -again!!! Well, we have

been rather pre-occupied, what with the "war on terra" and all.

[54anickel]

76. China rules out 'hard landing'

Pretty much the conclusion Roach came to last week when he returned from China as well.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4034335.stm

China's economy is in for a "soft landing" amid plans for a "gradual" shift in exchange rates, President Hu Jintao has told Asian leaders.
Economic growth of more than 9% a year and a currency locked to the declining dollar have worried other countries.

There are fears that China may overheat - or that credit controls intended to take the economy off the boil could slam on the brakes too sharply.

But Mr Hu said that would not happen, and promised "stable and fast growth".

snip>

Current efforts to tighten credit so as to slow the breakneck pace of investment and spending are having some effect.

Industrial output grew 15.7% in the year to October, down from 23% in February, and inflation slowed to 4.3% - although retail sales are still booming.

The wildfire growth of the Chinese economy has been seen as both an opportunity and a threat.

more...

[54anickel]

55. Hey UIA, I've been thinking....I know it's dangerous when I do that, but

how did this pozi scheme get set up? MrU, got me thinking about it...as I reach for the tinfoil...

Japan's year-end is March, that's when they pump up the buck (lowering the yen) as their corporations book their earnings. Last year (my first year of watching the buck this closely) we had much of the same thing.

The buck slides over the holiday, just in time for the year-end booking of profits, then it's free-fall is cushioned just in time for the March year-end in Japan. Then the "narrow channel" gets set up for most of the summer and fall trading again.

Meanwhile, the talking heads are always so certain of a year-end rally. :tinfoilhat: Sort of seems like it's all by design. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

59. there does seem to be a pause in the

descent of the buck from Dec to Mar (historically from what I have seen), but the trend is definitely down.

RayGun ran the dollar way down and it took 'til the mid-90s to get the trend reversed.

[TrogL]

62. Loonie Watch

(My regular source of information hasn't updated since Friday so I'll wing it.)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s

The loonie dropped lower overnight, but it's probing yesterday's territory.

Here's some blather.

The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of Monday's rally, which posted a new contract high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December continues this fall's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .8456 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8305 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

Current high (as of 9:42 MST) 0.84480 which is only 0.0008 off the mark.

Alberta had its elections yesterday (I didn't vote, I got disenfranchised - my fault).

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2004/11/23/alberta-election-041123.html

Ralph Klein led the Progressive Conservatives to a fourth majority government in Alberta in Monday's provincial election, but lost 13 seats in the process.

...

The Conservatives won 61 of the legislature's 83 seats, chalking up the party's 10th consecutive victory since 1971. The Liberals held onto the seven seats they'd won in 2001, and added 10. The NDP doubled their seats to four, while the Alberta Alliance won its first.

Whether this has a major effect on the loonie remains to be seen. This is a major shakeup in Alberta politics. Klein has already announced that this is his last election. The MLA that was a favourite to be his successor lost his seat.

Just as a reminder, Klein's claim to fame was to eliminate Alberta's deficit budget, then its debt. They "tore up the mortgage" last year. Having accomplished that, he's been coasting (and putting his foot in mouth, although this is hardly new).

Nevertheless, he's got a thumping majority so I don't see why the market would have any reason for concern.

I'm suspecting the loonie's rise is actually the greenback's slide.

[54anickel]

73. Bank of Canada's Dodge Says `Stimulus' May Be Curbed

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=a0pjMheRa4ek&refer=canada

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said the bank may withdraw ``monetary stimulus'' from an economy nearing full capacity, a sign it may raise interest rates next month. The Canadian dollar gained after the comments.

Domestic demand and exports are growing this year even as Canada's currency gains against the U.S. dollar, Dodge told reporters in Berlin today. The currency has risen 8.9 percent against the U.S. dollar since Jan. 1. The Canadian dollar rose to 84.41 U.S. cents at 12:27 p.m. in Toronto, from 83.73 U.S. cents at the end of last week.

Dodge ``has made it clear that the strength of the Canadian dollar will not stop the bank from raising rates next month,'' said Jim Webber, London-based Toronto-Dominion Bank's chief strategist for Europe, in an interview. ``It's a pretty clear signal.''

Canada's exports, particularly manufactured, goods are growing this year even as its currency gains against the dollar. The economy may expand by almost 3 percent this year and in 2005 and 3.2 percent in 2006, the central bank said last month. Price pressures may arise as the economy approaches capacity to meet demand, Dodge said.

more...

[TrogL]

105. Better late than never

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2004-10-25 Monday, October 25 0.817528 USD
2004-10-26 Tuesday, October 26 0.816593 USD
2004-10-27 Wednesday, October 27 0.816127 USD
2004-10-28 Thursday, October 28 0.820075 USD
2004-10-29 Friday, October 29 0.819068 USD
2004-11-01 Monday, November 1 0.817728 USD
2004-11-02 Tuesday, November 2 0.815461 USD
2004-11-03 Wednesday, November 3 0.825014 USD
2004-11-04 Thursday, November 4 0.829669 USD
2004-11-05 Friday, November 5 0.834655 USD
2004-11-08 Monday, November 8 0.838574 USD
2004-11-09 Tuesday, November 9 0.83682 USD
2004-11-10 Wednesday, November 10 0.834934 USD
2004-11-12 Friday, November 12 0.838997 USD
2004-11-15 Monday, November 15 0.831117 USD
2004-11-16 Tuesday, November 16 0.838082 USD
2004-11-17 Wednesday, November 17 0.838574 USD
2004-11-18 Thursday, November 18 0.8285 USD
2004-11-19 Friday, November 19 0.838364 USD
2004-11-23 Tuesday, November 23 0.842815 USD




The loonie rose against everything except the Pound, presumably based on news earlier in this thread. It will remain to see whether it can recover against last week's losses against some currencies. With China throwing the baby out with the bathwater we'll have to see where everything settles.

[UpInArms]

63. 11:55 EST numbers (old) blather and the buck

Dow 10,449.45 -39.97 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,071.59 -13.60 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,172.65 -4.59 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% +0.023

NYSE Volume 577,163,000
Nasdaq Volume 996,431,000

11:30AM: Buyers remain a reluctant bunch as the market exends its broad-based losses... Today has been a moderate to light day for volumes, although some stocks are seeing heavy trading action... S&P 500 constituent H.J. Heinz (HNZ 37.40 -0.99) posted Q2 earnings of $0.56 per share, three cents shy of the consensus estimate... And even though the food processor reaffirmed its Y05 (Apr) guidance, it now expects full-year results to come in toward the lower half of $2.32-2.42 (consensus is $2.37)...

Last night, Dycom Industries (DY 29.79 -4.85) reported Q1 (Oct) earnings of $0.32 per share, six cents worse than what Wall Street had anticipated, despite a 34.3% year-over-year increase in revenues of $263.2 mln, which were better than consensus... But the builder of telecom service networks projected warned for Q2, guiding to EPS of $0.14-0.19 (consensus $0.27) on lower revenues of $200-220 mln (consensus $228 mln)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1408/1658, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1191/1691

11:00AM: The broader averages hit a wall and plunge to new lows just as they hit new highs at the bottom of the last hour... This morning has been marked by volatile trading as the price of crude oil has rallied 1% and the dollar has set another record low against the euro... The tech sector remains the biggest weight on the indices, but energy, airline, retail and insurance have shown some resilience... Biotech, homebuilding, consumer staples, and steel have joined technology to the downside...SOX -0.80, NYSE Adv/Dec 1665/1314, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1469/1305

Last trade 82.95 Change -0.24 (-0.29%)

Settle 83.19 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.43 Previous Close 83.19

High 83.54 Low 82.81

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-23 11:25:37 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

64. 12:33 - look how they've just sort of flat-lined over lunch

Dow 10,448.26 -41.16 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,071.88 -13.31 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,172.82 -4.42 (-0.38%)
10-yr Bond 4.173% +0.008
30-yr Bond 4.823% -0.003
NYSE Volume 673,048,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,123,128,000

12:30PM : Indices hold near their lows as the negative tone remains intact... The Dow, the biggest laggard of the broader averages, has erased what little 2004 gains it had over the last couple of days... But offsetting some of the Dow's weakness today has been stock of McDonald's Corp. (MCD 29.82 +0.44), following the appointment of its third CEO in 7 months... The promotion of new CEO Jim Skinner and new President Mike Roberts has cleared the air as to who would succeed current President and Chief Executive Charlie Bell, who has left to battle colorectal cancer...
Shares of Dow component American International Group (AIG 63.59 +0.74) have also surged after the company submitted a settlement offer to the SEC and reached an agreement in principle with the Department of Justice...NYSE Adv/Dec 1409/1752, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1171/1802

12:00PM : Choppy trading, cautious analyst comments, mixed earnings reports, and split breadth figures have left little enthusiasm in the early going... Investors initially shrugged off what first appeared to be company-specific news, but broad-based selling has now hit virtually every sector - from biotech and semiconductor to healthcare and financial... Crude oil ($49.95/bbl +1.31) has been the driving catalyst to the downside with the weakening dollar grabbing its own hidelines hitting lower lows against the euro and yen ...

Investors have used the developments as a reason to take stocks lower, cognizant of the indices' month-long winning streak... Technology has been the largest laggard, spurred in part by CSFB's downgrade of Intel (INTC 23.28 -0.82) and a few other chipmakers and Morgan Stanley's deletion of Cisco (CSCO 19.01 -0.14) from its Focus List... An earnings miss from Heinz (HNZ 37.34 -1.05) has also led to pronounced selling in the consumer discretionary sector... Meanwhile, the only economic report of the day, October Existing Home Sales, matched the consensus estimate of 6.75 mln and temporarily inspired a buying drive...

However, the market soon turned lower on the euro's rise to record highs and the price of crude oil's 2% price increase - which has left energy as one of the only positive sectors at mid-day...NYSE Adv/Dec 1354/1756, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1142/1789

11:30AM : Buyers remain a reluctant bunch as the market exends its broad-based losses... Today has been a moderate to light day for volumes, although some stocks are seeing heavy trading action... S&P 500 constituent H.J. Heinz (HNZ 37.40 -0.99) posted Q2 earnings of $0.56 per share, three cents shy of the consensus estimate... And even though the food processor reaffirmed its Y05 (Apr) guidance, it now expects full-year results to come in toward the lower half of $2.32-2.42 (consensus is $2.37)...

Last night, Dycom Industries (DY 29.79 -4.85) reported Q1 (Oct) earnings of $0.32 per share, six cents worse than what Wall Street had anticipated, despite a 34.3% year-over-year increase in revenues of $263.2 mln, which were better than consensus... But the builder of telecom service networks projected warned for Q2, guiding to EPS of $0.14-0.19 (consensus $0.27) on lower revenues of $200-220 mln (consensus $228 mln)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1408/1658, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1191/1691

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1433 (42%) 1209 (38%)
Declines 1744 (52%) 1771 (56%)
Unchanged 164 (4%) 138 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 265 (42%) 565 (52%)
Down Vol* 358 (56%) 503 (46%)
Unch. Vol* 6 (0%) 13 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 201 128
New Lo's 5 25



And the buck:

Last trade 82.88 Change -0.31 (-0.37%)

Settle 83.19 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.43 Previous Close 83.19

High 83.54 Low 82.81

[54anickel]

65. What Happens if the Dollar Does Not Fall? (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041122-mon.html#anchor0

snip>

A key risk to this scenario is that it has now become a consensus bet in financial markets. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who argued earlier this year that there was “…little evidence of stress in funding US current account deficits” now seems resigned to a weaker dollar (see Greenspan’s “Lecture Before the Bundesbank” in Berlin on January 13, 2004 and, more recently, his “Remarks at the European Banking Congress” in Frankfurt on November 19, 2004). With such broad agreement on an important macro trend, this is where the contrarian is trained to pounce. And so it pays to ask, what happens if the dollar doesn’t fall?

The short answer, in my view, is trade frictions and protectionism. I reach that conclusion by underscoring the tradeoff between economics and politics as the means by which unprecedented global imbalances are likely to be vented. If pressures don’t give on one axis, I believe the impetus for rebalancing will then shift to the other axis. The biggest risk, in my view, occurs if the world’s major currencies don’t adjust. In that case, global imbalances will only continue to mount. In the US, that means that the current-account deficit, which stood at a record 5.7% of GDP in 2Q04, should rise to at least 6.5% in the next year. Moreover, there are several very credible extrapolations of a sharp further widening in the years beyond -- nearly 8% by 2008 (Nouriel Roubini and Brad Setser of NYU and Oxford) and 13% by 2010 (Catherine Mann of the International Institute of Economics). With over 90% of America’s current account deficit showing up in the form of a record trade gap, it is perfectly reasonable to presume that a worsening of the seemingly chronic US current-account problem will also be associated with the classic characteristics of ever-rising trade deficits -- namely, heightened import penetration and ongoing compression of employment in the US tradable goods sector. In my view, this would be a politically untenable result in the United States -- one that could encourage the opponents of trade liberalization and fuel the destructive forces of protectionism.

Are there any signs of such a political backlash? The rhetorical flourishes of Campaign 2004 only skimmed the surface, in my view, by touching on the jobless recovery and the offshoring debate. Yet if the dollar doesn’t weaken further and US trade deficits continue to mount, I look for Washington to get serious and consider upping the ante on possible political “remedies.” China bashing seems likely to be at the top of the list. Just as the scapegoatting of Japan became the politically correct response to America’s trade problems in the late 1980s, all eyes are now on China. After all, the US-China trade deficit is likely to hit $150 billion in 2004; that would be double the bilateral gap with Japan -- America’s second largest trade imbalance. Never mind that the US trade deficit with China -- or with any other nation, for that matter -- is an outgrowth of a staggering shortfall of domestic saving brought about by Washington-inspired budget deficits and the zero-saving mindset of American consumers. Never mind that trade with China provides America with low-cost, high quality goods that expand the purchasing power of income-short consumers. Never mind that China’s appetite for Treasuries helps prevent an interest-rate accident in an overly-levered US economy. Washington has long had a knack for pinning the blame on others rather than facing up to its own failure to deal with America’s saving dilemma. In a scenario of limited dollar adjustments and ever-widening trade deficits, I suspect that such denial and misdirected scapegoatting could well intensify.

Several contentious disputes are already percolating on the US-China trade front that could well portend tougher times ahead. A looming dispute over global textiles trade is the most immediate risk on the horizon. A decade ago, as part of a global trade agreement, the US agreed to dismantle its textiles-product quota system under the so-called Multi-Fiber Agreement; complete elimination of the quotas, as stipulated by the 1995 WTO Agreement on Textiles and Clothing, was set for December 31, 2004. With the deadline looming, the US has suddenly had a change of heart. Fearing imminent loss of market share to Chinese producers, a coalition of US textile companies, apparel firms, and labor unions has filed a compliant with the US Commerce Department, arguing for the temporary imposition of “safeguard” quotas to temper what is likely to be a surge of Chinese import penetration. China views this potential abrogation of long-agreed trade liberalization as a serious violation of WTO rules. The US case rests on charges of currency manipulation and on the persistence of state-sponsored subsidies to state-owned Chinese textile companies.

more...

[54anickel]

66. The avalanche is coming

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1052-1369393,00.html
It happened before; it might happen again. The dollar could pitch the world into financial catastrophe

snip>

In Washington, the Administration does not seem to be much concerned. The President’s response was to raise the US Government’s debt limit to $8,180 billion. In his first term he has raised expenditure and cut taxes to an extreme degree. Real expenditure during his presidency has risen by an annual average of 5.1 per cent, compared with 1.5 per cent under President Clinton.



The Federal Reserve is becoming extremely anxious. Alan Greenspan, the chairman, is an outstanding central banker, whom we ought to take very seriously. He gives a warning that the US current account deficit is unsustainable. The deficit has now risen to the point where the US has to borrow almost £2 billion a day. Mr Greenspan thinks that foreign investors may go on strike because they have too many dollars already. He would like to see a reduction in the US budget deficit in order to reduce the external deficit. That, however, would mean deflationary policies, and President Bush does not like deflation.

The problem is not a new one. It is based on the structural weakness of the world’s leading currency, whichever that might be. In the 1920s the key currency was sterling, but the pound had been weakened by Britain’s financial losses in the First World War. London was still the centre of the world exchange system, and Britain still had great, though declining, power to borrow. Eventually, Britain could not take the strain and had to abandon the gold standard in 1931. The slump of the 1930s followed.

As early as the 1960s the French were complaining that the dollar was following the same track. In 1965 Jacques Rueff, President de Gaulle’s economic adviser, gave an interview to the American financial writer Fred Hirsch. Rueff pointed out that “when a country with a key currency has a deficit in its balance of payment — that is to say, the United States, for example — it pays the creditor country dollars, which end up with its central bank. But the dollars are of no use in Bonn, or in Tokyo, or in Paris. The very same day, they are all re-lent to the New York money market, so that they return to their place of origin . . . if I had an agreement with my tailor that whatever money I pay him he returns to me the very same day as a loan, I would have no objection at all to ordering more suits from him.”

Of course, the main centre that now sells and lends back is Beijing. Six years after the Rueff interview, the Bretton Woods system of dollar-gold convertibility did break down. President Nixon ended the US commitment to exchange dollars for gold.

more...


Meanwhile there are more and more articles discussing the need for another Plaza Accord. :eyes:

Here's one, but google the news, I was trying to find one that goes with this title listed at Prudent Bear:
The world needs another Plaza Accord - Bernstein, FT ($) (11/23/2004 10:09 AM)


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FK19Dj01.html

snip>

Yesterday, Peter Bernstein, writing in the Financial Times called for a new dollar Plaza Accord--bringing together the worlds’ major central banks in order to manage the dollar lower. He sited that the original Plaza Accord succeeded in reducing the dollars value by 30% from 1985 through 1987. And it the process, it helped bring the current account back into balance.

Two things: 1) the current account deficit then was about 3.5% of US GDP and now it is approaching 6+% of GDP. The dollar as the key policy tool to balance said current account would have to fall much more than 30% to achieve this task—I think. And 2) what Mr. Bernstein failed to mention in his article was this….

…the stock market crashed in 1987, after central banks “successfully” engineered a decline in the dollar. Sure, there were other mitigating factors. But the macro environment then seems similar to now. I’m not predicting anything here. I’m just giving you something to think about. Another Plaza Accord? Buy stocks and sell the dollar…but know your limits.

[54anickel]

67. Is the dollar in trouble?

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2004/11/22/2003212125

snip>

Bogged down in a costly war that shows no sign of ending, the US faces a gaping budget deficit and ballooning foreign indebtedness. The dollar plunges against other major currencies, while turmoil in the Middle East sends oil prices soaring. The rest of the decade is plagued by rising inflation, increased joblessness and sky-high interest rates.

But the president under fire was Richard Nixon -- not George W. Bush. The war was in Vietnam, not Iraq. And the dollar crash was in 1973 rather than next year.

Could it happen again? With the dollar down more than 40 percent against the euro since 2002, and hitting new lows since Bush's re-election, economists are debating whether America's foreign indebtedness could lead to a collapse in the dollar and a global financial crisis.

snip>

Many analysts expect the financing gap to widen and the dollar to decline further. But there are at least three schools of thought on whether a dollar collapse is likely and, if it happens, what it would mean.

One group, which includes the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, contends that global financial markets are awash in so much money that the US can borrow much more than seemed possible 20 years ago.

The dollar may well decline in value, according to this view, but the decline would be gradual and would help reduce American trade imbalances by making exports cheaper and imports more expensive.

Not if, but when

more...

[54anickel]

72. Despite Defect, G.M. Keeps Selling S.U.V.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/23/business/23vue.html?oref=login&oref=login

snip>

Mr. Rauchwerger bought a new Saturn Vue, a small sport utility vehicle, on Oct. 11, only to discover later, by chance, that the Vue's suspension system collapsed during rollover testing performed by the government over the summer. In August, G.M. said it would voluntarily recall all of the roughly 250,000 Saturn Vues on the road in the United States and Canada. The swift action by G.M. bolstered Saturn's reputation for adept customer care and quieted news reports about the problem.

But in the months since, G.M. has continued to sell 2004 models of the Vue from its dealer lots -probably more than 10,000 in the last three months. Most of the S.U.V.'s were not fixed before they were sold. To date, G.M. has fixed only a few thousand of the quarter-million existing Vue models because it takes time to procure new suspension parts for so many vehicles. The 2005 models were fixed before they left factories.

The government has permitted G.M. to continue selling Vues before they are fixed because it has determined that the highly unusual failure during its new rollover test does not constitute a safety defect. And the Vue is not actually the subject of a formal recall, but a less-stringent voluntary measure known as a service campaign that permits G.M. to keep selling the vehicle without fixing it.

Consumer groups say the government's decision raises questions about how seriously regulators take their own rollover test. And they are also disturbed that consumers have been buying vehicles that have not been fixed and that they might not even know about the problem.

Sherrie Childers Arb, Saturn's communications director, said G.M. had moved unusually quickly to address the issue. But there does not appear to have been any directive from G.M. to its dealers to discuss the problem with potential buyers, and Mr. Rauchwerger said he was not told about it.

more...

[54anickel]

77. India's Bonds Drop as U.S. Warns of Terror Attacks in Country

:wtf: US intelligence getting into the "intervention" game? :shrug:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aglnWxnuoLfs&refer=asia

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Indian bonds fell, pushing yields on 2015 bonds to a one-week high, after the U.S. warned of terror attacks on its interests in the country in the ``near future.''

snip>

``Terrorists may be planning attacks on U.S. interests in India in the near future,'' a statement on the Web site of the Mumbai consulate of the U.S. embassy said. Attacks may be planned for Mumbai and New Delhi, including residential areas, schools, hotels, clubs and restaurants where U.S. citizens congregate, it said.

The U.S. will temporarily close some diplomatic offices in Mumbai as a precaution, the State Department said in a note.

snip>

Bonds were supported by signs of rising excess funds at banks, fueling optimism lenders will step up purchases of debt securities.

The Reserve Bank of India didn't add money to the banking system today for the first time since Nov. 4, suggesting excess cash at lenders has risen. Banks may buy more bonds after the government last week canceled a sale of new debt.

more...

[54anickel]

79. Russia May Increase Holdings of Euros in Reserves

May? I thought they already started this months ago.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aoAltJifyDnA&refer=europe

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Russian Central Bank First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said the country may increase the amount of euros in its foreign exchange reserves.

``Most of our reserves are in dollars and that's a cause for concern,'' Ulyukayev told reporters in Moscow. ``It's a real problem. Looking at the dynamics of the euro-dollar rate, we are discussing the possibility to change the reserve structure.''

Russia keeps about a third of its reserves in euros and the rest mainly in dollars, central bank deputy chairman Konstantin Korishchenko said in an interview on Nov. 3. The share may rise to about 50 percent, said Dwyfor Evans, a strategist at Bank of America Corp. in London.

snip>

Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves rose for a 12th straight week to a record $113.1 billion, nearing the country's total hard currency debt. The central bank said the reserves rose $300 million in the week ending Nov. 12, the Moscow-based bank said in e-mailed statement on Nov. 18.

``Central banks are becoming more like professional fund managers -- they want to maximize returns,'' said Steven Saywell, a currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London. ``If you are of the view that the dollar is going to depreciate significantly, then it makes sense for central banks to reduce any aggressive overweightings in dollars.''

bit more...

[UpInArms]

80. 2:07 EST and fairy dust appearing

]b]Dow 10,469.84 -19.58 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,081.03 -4.16 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,175.57 -1.67 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.151% -0.014

NYSE Volume 907,182,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,433,083,000

2:00PM: The broader averages continue to hold onto losses as market sentiment remains mixed... Treasuries have remained mostly sluggish, as the 10-year note (+7/32 yielding 4.14%) has inched a bit higher from the open, but without much enthusiasm ahead of tomorrow's shortened session... Meanwhile, crude oil has maintained its earlier surge toward $50/bbl, trading at $49.85/bbl +1.21, following news that Iraqi oil flows from the Basra export terminal (Iraq's largest pipeline) were halved for a second consecutive day...NYSE Adv/Dec 1720/1521, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1443/1592

1:30PM: Stocks are still under pressure, as selling interest remains persistent... But one area that has found some buying interest has been the broadcasting group... Media giant Time Warner (TWX 17.88 +0.42) has caught a bid on news that it is nearing a settlement with the SEC over its investigation into accounting irregularities at AOL...

Shares of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 6.53 +0.56), the largest volume mover on the Nasdaq, have also surged as it passed the 800,000 subscriber milestone and said it expects to sign on more than 200,000 new users in December, en route to its goal of 1 mln subscribers by year-end...NYSE Adv/Dec 1522/1692, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1294/1726

1:00PM: Much the same as stocks continue to trade in a narrow range near intra-day lows... Volumes have remained at a below average pace across the board ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday... And market internals remain primarily negative, with the exception of the Nasdaq up/down volume ratio... Five of the top six most actively traded stocks, all in negative territory, have accounted for roughly 10% of the total volume on the tech-heavy Composite...

Last trade 82.91 Change -0.28 (-0.34%)

Settle 83.19 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.43 Previous Close 83.19

High 83.54 Low 82.81

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-23 13:39:23 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

84. Heh-heh, it's that magical hour again. Gotta set up tomorrow's big

"day before Thanksgiving rally". Turkeys!


At 2:21, all in the black.

Dow 10,490.38 +0.96 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,085.38 +0.19 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,177.54 +0.30 (+0.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.151% -0.014
30-yr Bond 4.811% -0.015
NYSE Volume 948,468,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,482,749,000

[UpInArms]

85. 2:26 EST - turkey's about to be served

Dow 10,501.33 +11.91 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,086.97 +1.78 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,179.16 +1.92 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.152% -0.013

NYSE Volume 978,752,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,517,361,000

[54anickel]

86. *SNARF*... Here's a turkey story I just got from a friend - sure it's been

making the e-mail rounds this week, so sorry if you've already seen it. It could easily relate to the market these days. ;-)



Life as a Turkey

When I was a young turkey, new to the coop,
My big brother Mike took me out on the stoop;
Then he sat me down, and he spoke real slow,
And he told me there was something that I had to know.

His look and his tone I will always remember,
When he told me of the horrors of ... Black November;
"Come about August, now listen to me,
Each day you'll get six meals instead of just three."

"And soon you'll be thick, where once you were thin,
And you'll grow a big rubbery thing under your chin;
And then one morning, when you're warm in your bed,
In will burst the farmer's wife, and hack off your head."

"Then she'll pluck out your feathers so you're bald 'n pink,
And scoop out all your insides and leave ya lyin' in the sink;
And then comes the worst part," he said not bluffing,
She'll spread your cheeks and pack your rear with stuffing!"

Well, the rest of his words were too grim to repeat,
I sat on the stoop like a winged piece of meat;
I decided on the spot that to avoid being cooked,
I'd have to lay low and remain overlooked.

I began a new diet of nuts and granola,
High-roughage salads, juice and diet cola;
And as they ate pastries, chocolates and crepes,
I stayed in my room doing exercise tapes.

I maintained my weight of two pounds and a half,
And tried not to notice when the bigger birds laughed;
But 'twas I who was laughing, under my breath,
As they chomped and they chewed, ever closer to death.

And sure enough when Black November rolled around,
I was the last turkey left in the entire compound!
So now I'm a pet in the farmer's wife's lap,
I haven't a worry, so I eat and I nap.

She held me today, while sewing and humming,
And smiled at me and said
"Christmas is coming ...

[__Inanna__]

87. What's the fastest way to learn what all this means?

I read all of your posts with great interest, but I get very confused at the same time. It seems like all I hear from MSM and repugs is that things are going fine and stocks have gone up (which is true). But then I read your posts and although Econ was never a good subject for me, intuitively even I know that with the dollar dropping, a massive deficit, and China holding a ton of our debt, it is not a good thing.

So...How can I quickly learn how to decipher what is really going on, like all of you have? I am confused as to how there can be so many dissenting opinions/differing interpretations of all this. I hate to admit my ignorance of finance/economics, but the more I read the more I think I need to understand what is really going on here. Any good books for someone like me?

[UpInArms]

89. This one may not teach you much

but it's one of my faves:

Other People's Money by Paul Zane Pilzer (isbn 0-671-68101-x)

From the back cover:

"The somber fact is this. The savings and loan calamity of the 1980s is the most costly financial debale in the peacetime history of America. Bailing out the thrift industry -- paying for the mistakes made by Congress, the White House, and thrift executives -- is going to cost the U.S. taxpayers upwards of $200 billion. That is more thanthe combined cost of rescuing Chrysler, the City of new York, Lockheed, and Penn Central. In real dollars adjusted for inflation, the price tag for cleaning up the S&L mess will be fully three times the cost of the Marshall Plan to revive the devastated economies of Western Europe after World War II.

But the real tragedy of the savings and loan crisis is not so much the enormous bill that taxpayers will have to cover as a result of official neglect and mismanagement. Rather, it is the extent to which the calamity has undermined the noble purpose of encouraging people to save money to make their own lives better.

Worst of all, it didn't have to happen."

available for cheap: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/067168101X/002-5372021-3204001?v=glance

[54anickel]

91. Eww, yeah...that's another good one! Great starting place...n/t

[54anickel]

90. Here's a short listing of some of "My favorites"

The Great Unraveling: Losing Our Way in the New Century
by Paul Krugman,

Perfectly Legal: The Covert Campaign to Rig Our Tax System to Benefit the Super Rich - and Cheat Everybody Else
by David Cay Johnston

The Sorrows of Empire : Militarism, Secrecy, and the End of the Republic
by Chalmers Johnson

American Dynasty: Aristocracy, Fortune, and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush
by Kevin Phillips

Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
by John Perkins

[bain_sidhe]

96. Gotta pipe up for "Wealth and Democracy"

Subtitle: :A Political History of the American Rich." It's by Kevin Phillips, who also wrote "American Dynasty" noted above. He put it all in perspective for me. Parts of it are a little dry, but well worth plowing through, IMHO. I personally like the way he organizes the history of... well, wealth and democracy... according to themes, although I guess some people would prefer a more linear approach. What Phillips does is look at each theme seperately, say for instance, the concentration of wealth, or the rise and destruction of a middle class, and then relate it to previous occurances in both our past and in the societies of previous "world economic powers."

Basically (and simplistically), his thesis is that the U.S. is following the same trajectory - with the same general rythms and signals - as three previous world powers: Spain in the 1500s and early 1600s, the Netherlands in the 1600s to the mid 1700s, and Britain in the 1800s and early 1900s. In all of these, the "world powers" became powers through the technological advances in their "industrial and production" base (although in some cases, the "industrial base" was more service oriented - like seafaring and fishing in Spain and Holland), then declined when they started using global finance as their main "wealth creating" engine and allowed their "industrial base" to fade away.

If you can get a hold of it, his earlier book "The Politics of Rich and Poor" (1990) is also a good primer on how political policies (in that case, Reagan) affect our economy, and are far more important in determining who "wins" and who "loses" in the economy than actual efforts of individuals. (IOW, how hard you work matters less than how the political system "views" your work.)

**edited to fix re-write errors**

[54anickel]

97. Heh, I hoped you were lurking! That's the title I was looking for from

your previous posts!!! I knew the author, but lost my notes on the book you had brought up here before.

Thanks bain_sidhe!!!

[bain_sidhe]

99. I ALWAYS lurk... er, mostly

rarely write, but read this thread every day. If nothing else, it helps me feel not so "tin foil hattish" to see that others more knowledgeable than myself ALSO see what I *think* I'm seeing.

It ain't paranoia if *everybody* thinks that "they" really ARE out to get ya, right?

[54anickel]

88. Canaries in the Coalmine (Hussman - fast forward beyond the ad)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc041122.htm

snip>

Keeping in mind the soundly unfavorable condition of fundamentals, it's particularly important to monitor market conditions for developments that might signal deterioration in investors' speculative preferences, or present fresh catalysts for trouble, such as recession or currency risks. Though not exhaustive, the following are a few items that deserve attention.

• Overbought “technical” indicators. The market has enjoyed a rare “uncorrected” advance that is usually seen at the very beginning of bull markets from very depressed valuations, or at mature points in a bull market characterized by “speculative blowoffs.” It's not difficult to guess which is probably occurring. The difficulty is that these blowoffs need not be singletons – a market peak can contain more than one. You can see the action most easily by looking at a point-and-figure chart, where the recent advance appears as a vertical “pole.” These poles can consolidate at higher levels, but can also break down vertically, producing a second pole in the reverse direction. Something to watch if you're looking for a reversal in market momentum. Others include the McClellan Oscillator (a measure of market breadth), which is also reversing from a severe overbought condition, and an odd little bird called Coppock indicator (a 10-month exponential MA of the average of the 11 and 14 month return on the S&P 500) – it peaked in June. An old Ned Davis rule is that a 6 point drop in the Coppock in less than 4 months is a danger signal – close, but not yet.

• Valuations – A market at over 21 times record earnings doesn't have much of a safety net. Suffice it to say that when S&P 500 earnings have been at a record, the price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500 has historically averaged just 12. Even providing for further earnings growth to the peak of the long-term earnings channel that has contained S&P 500 earnings for the past century, even a P/E of 18 five years from now would result in annualized total returns of less than 5%.

• The ISM Purchasing Managers Index. snip>...

• Credit spreads – snip>...

The U.S. dollar. - On a short-term basis the dollar is probably oversold. Of course, bear markets can produce very sustained oversold conditions in currencies, as they do for stocks. Still, bear markets like to play a little game called “aneurism” with short sellers, by producing explosive rallies from time to time in order to clear those oversold conditions. Interestingly, the dollar is about fairly valued versus the Euro and the British Pound on the basis of joint interest rate and price parities (the basis of our currency valuation models – see Valuing Foreign Currencies). The problem is that with an enormous current account deficit, there is great potential for the dollar to move far away from those “parity” values. With the Fed now tightening and the dollar beginning to weaken, the U.S. economy seems very close to playing out some very unpleasant adjustments (see Freight Trains and Steep Curves).

• Investor Sentiment. Late bull markets generally produce a classic dispersion in sentiment between value investors and trend followers. We're already seeing this as a substantial increase in selling by corporate insiders (now at roughly 5 shares sold for every share purchased), even while investment advisory sentiment has moved back to bullish extremes.

• Market Internals. snip>...

• Treasury bill – Eurodollar spreads. A Eurodollar is a U.S. dollar deposit held at a foreign bank. (A Eurocurrency, more generally, is a bank deposit denominated in a currency outside of its domicile, so for instance, a Yen deposit at a bank in Singapore would be a Eurocurrency deposit). In general, monetary crises of many varieties tend to trigger instability in the T-bill - Eurodollar spread, largely because ED deposits are free from normal regulatory structures such as reserve requirements, deposit insurance, capital controls, and so forth. Like credit spreads, the T-ED spread can often be a signal of oncoming trouble, even if it can't be precisely localized. At some point, the massive continuing capital flows that finance the U.S. current account deficit will slow or reverse. It's not certain what form adjustment that will take, but if the markets sense something abrupt, it will likely show in the behavior of various interest rate spreads.

more...

[54anickel]

92. Peak Oil, Stolen Elections, Energy Wars

http://www.newtopiamagazine.net/content/issue19/features/ruppert.php

snip>

The concept of Peak Oil seems to exist in a strange parallel universe where, despite the term having been affirmed by the likes of Cheney, Bush, and numerous oil company executives, it has not reached the popular imagination. Peak Oil broken down to its simplest form is the observation that oil production is limited and that we already are or are about to experience a decline in oil availability that, coinciding with ramped up oil demand in China and India and your local Hummer dealership, will be the end of globalism and the precarious prosperity we've built on the resources of the Third World. If you were among the first to know about a coming economic calamity, would preserving the status quo for as long as you could be worth fixing elections and starting energy wars in the Mideast? Would it be worth orchestrating the demise of some of your own citizenry? Perhaps you might even feel that you must be a ruler by divine mandate. It takes a rare individual to face such an enormous predicament without some crutch of faith.

Mike Ruppert is the publisher/editor of From the Wilderness or FTW, a newsletter he founded in March 1998 by mailing out 68 copies to friends and researchers. FTW is now read by more than 16,000 subscribers in forty countries including forty members of the US Congress, the intelligence committees of both houses, and professors at thirty universities worldwide. An honors graduate of UCLA in Political Science (1973), Ruppert is a former LAPD narcotics investigator who discovered CIA drug trafficking in 1977. After attempting to expose it, he was forced out of the LAPD in 1978 despite earning the highest rating reports possible, and having no pending disciplinary actions. In 1996, after eighteen years of struggle, he finally achieved one of his deepest wishes in a face to face encounter with then CIA Director John Deutch on national television. Washington sources later told Ruppert that Deutch's mishandling of the encounter cost him his guaranteed appointment as Secretary of Defense.




In Ruppert's highly controversial new book "Crossing the Rubicon" he names Vice President Dick Cheney as the prime suspect in the mass murders of 9/11 and with copious footnotes works to prove that not only was Cheney a planner in the attacks but also that on the day of the attacks he was running a completely separate command, control and communications system which was superseding any orders being issued by the FAA, the Pentagon, or the White House Situation Room. He provides evidence that in May of 2001, by presidential order, Cheney was put in direct command and control of all war-game and field exercise training and scheduling through several agencies, especially FEMA. This also extended to NORAD drills -- some involving hijack simulations. Ruppert finds evidence that the interceptors that should have protected America were instead over the Atlantic and elsewhere involved in the TRIPOD II exercise conducted by Cheney. He also provides evidence that a number of public officials at the national and New York City levels including then Mayor Rudolph Giuliani were aware that flight 175 was heading for lower Manhattan for twenty minutes and issued no warning.

According to Ruppert the US manufacturing sector has been mostly replaced by speculation on financial data whose underlying economic reality is hundreds of billions of dollars in laundered drug money flowing through Wall Street each year from opium and coca fields maintained by CIA-sponsored warlords and US-backed covert paramilitary violence. America's global dominance depends on an arbitrage of guns, drugs, oil and money. Oil and natural gas -- the fuels that make economic growth possible -- are subsidized by American military force and foreign lending. What happens when the oil starts running out? It's no coincidence that the Homeland Security Act clears the way for martial law. Ruppert not only thinks both presidential elections were stolen, he thinks the electoral process in the United States is dead.

more...

[UpInArms]

93. 3:28 EST and losing steam

Dow 10,479.08 -10.34 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,081.53 -3.66 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,175.89 -1.35 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.184% +0.019

NYSE Volume 1,193,681,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,802,710,000

3:00PM: Major indices recover some lost ground as breadth figures turn modestly bullish... Advancers now outpace decliners on the NYSE 19 to 13 while advancing issues on the Nasdaq hold a slight 15 to 14 edge over declining issues... New highs have held a significant edge over new lows all day on both the Big Board and the Composite...

Overall volume at the Nasdaq (currently 1.65 bln shares) is running at a pretty good clip, but take note that the total is skewed by Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 6.65 +0.68), which has seen more than 350 mln shares change hands today amid a short-covering rally that has followed the company's report that subscribers passed the 800K mark...NYSE Adv/Dec 1914/1363, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1560/1485

2:30PM: Market stages a large reversal as crude oil sells off in an expeditious manner... The recognition that January crude oil futures ($48.90/bbl +0.31), which have fallen more than 2% from their highs above $50/bbl heading into the close, has lit a fire under several sectors... One group that has helped the Nasdaq pare some of its losses late in the day have been the Internet search stocks...

Google (GOOG 168.24 +3.14) has maintained most of its gains after First Albany initiated coverage of with a Buy rating and a $195 price target, citing the company's ability to benefit from the secular growth of Internet advertising... Shares of Ask Jeeves (ASKJ 24.24 +1.04) have also surged on the heels of positive analyst comments... J.P. Morgan upgraded the Internet search provider to Overweight from Neutral due to valuation and expectations of a 14% sequential rise in Q4 revenues... Even competitor Yahoo! (YHOO 36.64 +0.19), which was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate by Janco Partners, has enjoyed some buying interest in a sellers market...

Last trade 82.97 Change -0.22 (-0.26%)

Settle 83.19 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.43 Previous Close 83.19

High 83.54 Low 82.81

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-23 14:58:38 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

95. Awww, wonder if they'll make it closer to the waterline before the close?

A good starting point for tomorrows rally. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

98. 5 minutes to go and oh, so close!

Dow 10,488.17 -1.25 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,083.34 -1.85 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,176.71 -0.53 (-0.05%)
10-yr Bond 4.184% +0.019
30-yr Bond 4.838% +0.012
NYSE Volume 1,325,208,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,958,413,000

[54anickel]

94. Hyperbole warning - Larouche. I know most think he's a wack-o, but

I have always respected his understanding of economic issues. Have your :tinfoilhat: nearby. :evilgrin:

http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/2004/3147perkins_book.html

snip>

So, you have repeatedly, that these financier interests, financier-oligarchical interests, move in times of crisis to take their joke-system of freedom, the parliamentary system, overturn it, in the interest of bankers, under the influence of a so-called central banking system—an independent central banking system, which is really a bunch of pirates, called bankers who control the central banking system—who use the power in a crisis, to turn governments in Europe, into right-wing horror-shows, or something like that.

So therefore, since Europe has not recognized that Institutional, self-destructive characteristic, of the so-called Liberal system of parliamentary democracy, Europe has proven itself, repeatedly, impotent, to deal with that problem. Whereas, the United States, despite making the same kind of mistakes, is constitutionally of a different form: That, under the U.S. Constitution, which is anti-Liberal, under the U.S. Constitution, we have come back repeatedly. As most notably, under Abraham Lincoln and under Franklin Roosevelt. Europe has not developed, despite the noble efforts of Charles de Gaulle in France, during the Fifth Republic period, up until 1963—Europe has not succeeded in producing a durable form of government which will not capitulate to these right-wing forces, in a time of crisis.

That's the situation we face, today.

So, what we're looking at, is: That the aim of the international financier oligarchy, the same crowd that was behind Hitler—it was called the Synarchist International, back between the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s—the Synarchist International, which is a bunch of bankers of this Venetian type, is once again moving toward world dictatorship, a more nasty one than ever before. The chief enemy and chief target of this operation, is not Europe: The chief target's the United States itself. Because, the danger is, to these bankers, that a new Franklin Roosevelt would emerge in the United States, and would use the Constitutional power embedded in the United States, as an institution, to lead the world, to make the kind of reform that Franklin Roosevelt made the last time around.

Therefore, that's been the effort.

So, what you have is, international forces, centered then around the friends of Winston Churchill in London: the minute that Roosevelt was dead—matter of fact, overnight!—the following morning, after Franklin Roosevelt's death, through stooge Truman, a stooge of what Churchill represented as the British Empire, moved to launched a right-wing turn, using former Nazi Party and Nazi SS elements, to do it! And they brought them into the NATO system. And they became the right wing. When you're looking at the right wing in the United States today, you're looking not only at an imitation of the Nazi system, you're looking at a direct continuation of it.

And that's the problem you have in Europe, today—the same thing. You see the Nazi International, Blas Piñar in Spain, Le Pen in France, the group around Alessandra Mussolini and her cronies in Italy—the same crowd; the same crowd that killed Moro, the same Nazi crowd that killed Moro. Then you have two groups in Germany which are uniting, which are the tools of an attempted Nazi operation. And you have also in the rest of Europe, various scattered organizations, which are part, actually, of a re-emerging Nazi International: Which is now—as the nation-states of Europe faced with a financial crisis, can no longer form what's called "liberal governments" of any stability, as see the threat to the Schröder government in Germany. The inability of Germany to have a clear shot at getting a government directly, which can deal with this German crisis. There are forces in Germany which could do it, but they have to be brought together, and they have to be brought together in a certain way, to assert the national interest of Germany against this operation. But, it's not happening yet. There's a struggle in that direction, which is commendable. In other parts of Europe, the same thing.

But, unless the United States turns, to assist in freeing Europe, and other parts of the world, from the legacy of this financier-oligarchical system—Heh! We're going to Hell.

more...

[aneerkoinos]

102. Too much incoherent rambling to cope with

but this cought my eye:

"Now, the great challenge of the planet today, to bring about a constructive peaceful order, which will solve the problems before us, is to realize that this great cultural divide of the planet, between the dominant role up to now, of European culture, European civilization; and on the other hand, a group of cultures which is known as Asian cultures, or similar kinds. They call it, in the Asian group: China, India, Japan, Korea, so forth. So therefore, the problem today, is to create a system of republics—or to have a commitment to a system of republics—which incorporates both Asian cultures and European cultures. And to come to an accommodation, a functional accommodation, between the two, which is the basis for the positive evolutionary development of the culture of the planet as a whole."

Great, any Hegelian who can think big, however wacko, earns my sympathy! I know this is economic and not religious thread, but I have great expectations for certain Tibetan tulkus that have recently chosen to be born in West and acquire both Tibetan buddhist and Western education.

As for the fascism, guy didn't mention Berlusconi the closet Mussolini but mentioned Alessandra, the mere openly fascist fascist bitch! Perhaps because at least so far Europe has been able to contain Berlusconi without too much fuss and make him embarrassing laughing stock. Haider's fascists became electorially irrelevant nobodies because of kiss of death (good old "let them share the power and blame" tactic), not because of the hysterical objection to them. I think the multiparty system has been proven to be quite efficient to contain fascism in post WWII Europe, as long as fascism is channelled through openly fascist populist parties, though I hate to see good protest votes wasted, and not clandestinely taking over mainstream and especially right of center parties as in US, democracy seems to be resilient, imperfect as it is. Here in Europe we have the advantage that more people remember and understand what fascism is than in US, and ABB is - was - just the hysterical attitude that only made Bush and Cheney more powerfull. Populist Fascism strives on controversy and division, being taken seriously; what it can't feed on is mature non-aggressive ridicule and ignoring.

Regards from another incoherent rambler! :)

[54anickel]

103. Thanks Aneerkoinos. Always interesting to see your point of view

from the outside. And again, you make another excellent point:

"Populist Fascism strives on controversy and division, being taken seriously; what it can't feed on is mature non-aggressive ridicule and ignoring."

I don't think we can exactly ignore the Boooshco RW at this point, but non-aggressive ridicule might take off.

We are fairly powerless right now in the house and senate anyway. Best to point out the absurdity of the RW actions, offer sound alternatives and just let the RW take the blame when the shit hits the fan. Be sure they are held accountable. Puts the Dems in the position to be able to say "told ya so". We're going to hell in a hand-basket at this point anyway. Perhaps we should be working on positioning ourselves as the sound, sane alternative so there would be less confusion and upheaval when it all comes tumbling down. :evilgrin: :hi:

[aneerkoinos]

106. Ignoring

Of course I don't mean the ostrich way, staying alert is essential. As you must realize by now, it's not politics as usual in US, this is the real thing. Situation has got so badly out of hand that what is left is guerilla tactics, running but picking a new weapon while running. And the evidence should be ample now that the DLC or even Democratic Party is the weapon you can use to win, there are more reasons to consider them, at least for time being, prisoners if not collaborators of the enemy camp. Both, IMHO, good behaving prisoners given responsibility (and better rations to make them feel special) to guard other prisoners and keep them pacified.

On the positive side, remember the old maxim: When you see your enemy self-destructing, don't interfere. Obvious problem is how to avoid going down with them. This leads to the main point:

What I mean by ignoring is active ignoring, making fascists as irrelevant as you can. Don't let Bush and hating Bush seduce you staying in the "deer in the headlights" mode (I'm definitely suffering from that so no blame :D), that will keep you people from putting all your energy into surviving, saving what can be saved, starting again from the local level, picking up new weapons. You need to get smart, stop fighting lost causes, stop loosing, get smart and quickly! This is the real thing, not politics as usual...

[54anickel]

100. US Treasuries climb, piggy-back on strong auction

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6898725

NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices rose on Tuesday after an auction of $24 billion in new short-term debt was met with solid interest from retail investors and indirect bidders alike.

The $24 billion in two-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 2.945 percent. It drew bids for 2.61 times the amount on offer, well above the 2.18 average of the year so far and the highest since mid-2002.

"There was some good demand," said Alan De Rose, a trader at CIBC World Markets, noting that some investors were trying to unwind a recent curve-flattening trade.

Investors have been betting short-term paper would underperform longer-dated debt in an environment of rising interest rates.

snip>

Indirect bidders in the auction, including foreign central banks, picked up $10.12 billion, or 42 percent, of the whole issue, up from the 40.0 percent in the previous auction. Primary dealers got $13.14 billion of the sale.

more...

[54anickel]

101. Closin' time!

Dow 10,492.60 +3.18 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,084.28 -0.91 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,176.94 -0.30 (-0.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.184% +0.019
30-yr Bond 4.838% +0.012
NYSE Volume 1,429,058,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,074,555,000

Close Dow +3.18 at 10492.60, S&P -0.30 at 1176.94, Nasdaq -0.91 at 2084.28: Aside from some short-lived rallies, the major indices spent most of the session underwater - pressured by a surge in the price of crude oil, another record low for the dollar, cautious remarks from analysts and split industry leadership... Crude oil futures ($48.94/bbl +0.30) were the main catalyst dictating today's volatile market action, leading to wide swings in the indices... The commodity surged to more than $50/bbl in early trading - on news that Iraqi oil flows were halved for a second straight day - and that caused the initial drop in the market around mid-day...
The dollar's fall to new record lows against the euro also produced a negative headline and prompted traders to book profits... The market did reverse course in mid-afternoon trading, with the major indices crossing into positive territory as crude oil fell off its highs; however, that buying drive was only temporary as the indices settled back around the unchanged mark... Tech was one of the largest weights on the averages, due in part to a Credit Suisse First Boston downgrade on Intel (INTC 23.38 -0.72), which marked the third rating revision in eight days for the world's largest chipmaker...

Health care, basic material, and consumer staple also showed relative weakness... Utility and financial, however, did manage to sustain an advance - the latter helped by news American International Group (AIG 64.22 +1.37) submitted an SEC settlement... This news, along with the positive reception of McDonald's (MCD 30.05 +0.67) new CEO, helped the Dow close in positive territory... Elsewhere, October Existing Home Sales were the only economic report of the day and matched expectations of 6.75 mln, surpassing last October's record sales reading of 6.1 mln...SOX -0.73, XOI +0.47, NYSE Adv/Dec 1979/1351, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1718/1373

3:30PM : Equities run into resistance and relinquish slim gains heading into the last half hour of trading... After the close, the last two S&P 500 constituents will report quarterly results... Analog Devices (ADI 39.13 -0.27) is expected to report earnings of $0.33 per share while analysts believe H & R Block (HRB 48.50 -0.10) will post a Q2 loss of $0.15 per share... Economic news returns to the forefront tomorrow morning, with October Durable Orders (consensus +0.5%) and weekly jobless claims (consensus 335K) kicking things off at 8:30 ET...

At 9:45 ET, the revised November Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show a reading of 96.0; meanwhile October New Home Sales (consensus 1200K) and the Help-Wanted Index (consensus 37) come out at 10:00 ET... The weekly US oil inventory report from the Dept. of Energy is expected at 10:30 ET... Analysts anticipate an increase of 700K barrels for crude and an increase of 350K for distillates... NYSE Adv/Dec 1830/1490, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1476/1594

3:00PM : Major indices recover some lost ground as breadth figures turn modestly bullish... Advancers now outpace decliners on the NYSE 19 to 13 while advancing issues on the Nasdaq hold a slight 15 to 14 edge over declining issues... New highs have held a significant edge over new lows all day on both the Big Board and the Composite...

Overall volume at the Nasdaq (currently 1.65 bln shares) is running at a pretty good clip, but take note that the total is skewed by Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 6.65 +0.68), which has seen more than 350 mln shares change hands today amid a short-covering rally that has followed the company's report that subscribers passed the 800K mark...NYSE Adv/Dec 1914/1363, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1560/1485


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2026 (58%) 1718 (52%)
Declines 1306 (37%) 1373 (42%)
Unchanged 144 (4%) 177 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 782 (54%) 1156 (55%)
Down Vol* 621 (43%) 881 (42%)
Unch. Vol* 26 (1%) 28 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 291 168
New Lo's 6 32


And the buck:

Last trade 82.94 Change -0.24 (-0.29%)

Settle 82.97 Settle Time 15:36

Open 83.43 Previous Close 83.19

High 83.54 Low 82.81

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-11-23 16:14:11 ET
30-min delayed quote.


Have a great night Marketeers, hope to see you all tomorrow so we can watch the "day before Thanksgiving Day Rally" together! :evilgrin: :hi:

[54anickel]

104. Heh, bullion bank selling on the gold markets today...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=i4513041146756005952

snip>

Gold futures got off to a strong start and opened with a charge to the
contract high, fueled by fund and dealer buying sparked by the U.S. dollar's descent to all-time lows against the euro overnight.

However, good levels of bullion bank selling emerged into that early drive to halt the charge ahead of the $450 mark and then turn prices lower as the morning progressed.

Some speculative long liquidation and profit taking then also surfaced. Players became disappointed with gold's lack of upside momentum and mindful of the impending closure of the Comex markets Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving and the need to tidy or square-off positions before then.

"Overall the market is still bullish and looking to make a test of $450. But with Thanksgiving coming the near-term emphasis is on book squaring and lightening up on positions so that people can enjoy the long weekend," said Bernard Hunter, a director at Scotia Mocatta in Toronto.

Position rolling by fund players looking to extend exposure to the market without requiring actual custody of the metal once the December contract expires (and its futures become deeds for physical metal) also applied pressure to December prices Tuesday. Most players are rolling forward their exposure into the February contract, which settled $1 down at $450.20 an ounce Tuesday.

more...