STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 24 November

[ozymandius]

Wednesday November 24, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 57 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 348 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 37 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1098
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 23, 2004

Dow... 10,492.60 +3.18 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq... 2,084.28 -0.91 (-0.04%)
S&P 500... 1,176.94 -0.30 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.18% +0.02 (+0.46%)
Gold future... 447.90 -1.10 (-0.25%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.48 Change -0.49 (-0.59%)

Settle 82.97 Settle Time 23:33

Open 82.94 Previous Close 82.97

High 82.96 Low 82.41

Last tick: 2004-11-24 07:30:28 ET
30-min delayed quote.

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH46575_2004-11-24_12-46-09_N24169698

U.S. stock futures steady before flow of data

excerpt:

Trading was expected to be light and volatile ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. stock markets will be closed Thursday and will have a truncated session on Friday.

The dollar remained center stage as it hit a fresh all-time low against the euro <EUR=>, a 12-year low against the Canadian dollar <CAD=> and a near nine-year low against the Swiss franc <CHF=>.

A weaker dollar can help U.S. companies, improving their offshore earnings when converted back to dollars and making them more competitive against other producers.

However, investors can also be reluctant to buy U.S. assets if they expect the currency to continue to weaken and reduce the value of those investments.

Both equity and currency markets will be looking to data, with sales of durable goods in October expected to have risen 0.5 percent from the previous month when the figures are released at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT).

Also coming at 8:30 a.m. are weekly jobless claims which are seen little changed at 335,000, while the final reading of the University of Michigan's November sentiment index, due at 9:45 a.m. (1445 GMT), is expected at 96.

Weekly U.S. government oil inventory data due at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) is expected to show that rising refinery rates have topped up supplies of heating oil and diesel.

...more at link...

Are we having turkey early?

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

(edited 'cuz I hit that post button too early!)

[UpInArms]

16. Dollar remains lower with no help from mixed U.S. data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38315.3704033565-827733187&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar continued to trade at record lows against the euro and nearly five-month lows against the yen, failing to get any traction from mixed U.S. economic data. The dollar was quoted at 102.81 yen compared to 102.79 yen before the release of an upbeat report on jobless benefits claims and an unexpected drop in durable goods orders. The euro was quoted at $1.3150 vs. $1.3151.

[UpInArms]

28. As dollar sinks, G-7 tensions grow - Some analysts see echoes of 1987 fina

Some analysts see echoes of 1987 financial crisis

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC7C2D22F%2D64BB%2D497A%2DB2D9%2DCDBCEF1504B4%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The world's most dysfunctional family won't be gathering for a Thanksgiving meal this year.

After a period of calm in foreign-exchange markets leading up to the As a result, officials of the Group of Seven, the world's richest nations, are squabbling about what, if anything, to do about the currency's steady weakening.

"There is growing tension, that is a good way to put it," said Brian Fabbri, chief economist at Paribas Capital Markets in New York.

For the moment, the tension may only encourage the dollar's fall, analysts said. In Wednesday morning currency trading, the euro was quoted at another new high of $1.3168. See currencies report.

"The G-7 is not singing off the same sheet of music and that adds volatility to the market -- and in this case is adding to dollar selling," said David Gilmore, a partner in research firm Foreign Exchange Analytics.

Analysts worry something unforeseen could set off a larger currency crisis.

"You never know what beat from a butterfly's wing will send this thing to oblivion," Gilmore said.

<snip>

Gilmore said the current tension reminds him of the summer of 1987, when then-Treasury Secretary James Baker got into a fight with the Germans for raising interest rates. That dispute is seen by many economic historians as the start of the crisis of confidence in U.S. financial markets that helped usher in the stock market collapse in October of that year.

The recriminations reached a new public level Tuesday after a senior official of China's central bank gave an interview in the Financial Times saying that the Bush administration was blaming China for U.S. problems.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. Dollar's slide vs. euro continues

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7C0AF577%2D012F%2D4448%2DB31E%2DC70C11B6B5E8%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The dollar slid to fresh lows against several of the world's major currencies on Wednesday, with little indication that officials are willing to counter a dollar-selling trend.

A weaker dollar is seen helping to reverse the massive U.S. trade deficit. European and Asian officials are bristling over the negative impact their respectively strong home currencies will have on exports, but their concerns are apparently falling on deaf ears in Washington, where the Bush administration has said sub-par growth in Europe and Asia are to blame, not a weak dollar.

"Traders remain somewhat entrenched in the mindset that the dollar is still exposed on the downside and further losses look inevitable for the greenback in the mid-term," said Paul Jackson, a senior foreign exchange dealer with CMC Group in New York.

The euro was fetching as much as $1.3168 overnight, its best dollar value in its five-year existence.

<snip>

"Scare mongers are now touting a U.S. dollar Armageddon and with little to halt the appreciation of the euro, medium-term targets of $1.40 to $1.45 for the euro-dollar cannot be ruled out," said Matthew Foster-Smith, a currency analyst with IFR Forex Watch.

"This ... rise owes a lot to the lack of official underpinning of the U.S. dollar and rumors that 11 central banks have today sold the dollar and bought the euro," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

2. Dollar hits new lows on Russia fears

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a8b954a2-3e0b-11d9-9c45-00000e2511c8.html

The under-fire dollar slumped to yet another all-time low against the euro in European morning trade on Wednesday as renewed oil price strength and Tuesday’s comments from the Russian central bank continued to weigh on the greenback.

Alexei Ulyukayev, first deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, hinted that Moscow would step up its ongoing policy of shifting more of its $113.1bn of foreign exchange reserves from dollars into euros. This in turn raised the spectre of Asian central banks with higher reserves still following suit.

“A move to say 40 per cent euro from possibly around 30 per cent is a notable amount and highlights the support the euro may be deriving at present when you consider other central banks may also be diversifying out of the dollar,” said Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York, raised the prospect of a potential domino effect: “Talk of central banks readjusting their reserves to encompass a greater euro weighting has been rife in the foreign exchange markets for quite some time, along with speculation that OPEC members may shift to euro-denominated oil sales.

“A dam can only take so much pressure. Russia’s stated intent to review its reserve weightings, in favour of the euro once again, could well lead to similar announcements by its counterparts across the world.”

<snip>

The net result was that the dollar lurched 0.8c lower to a fresh low of $1.3167 against the euro, aided by the breaching of technical barriers. The greenback also fell 1.2c to a nine-month low of $1.8807 against sterling, 0.7 centimes to a near nine-year low of SFr1.1504 against the Swiss franc, 0.6c to a 12-year low of C$1.1801 against the Canadian dollar and 0.25c to a nine-month low of $0.7886 against the Australian dollar.

<snip>

However Kaoru Yosano, policy chief of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democrat party, appeared to pour cold water on this scenario, saying: “The effects of currency intervention would only be short-lived and limited.”

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. Reports for the day (It's MaeveDay!)

Nov 24 8:30 AM
Durable Orders Oct
report -
briefing.com 0.5%
market 0.5%
last report 0.2%
revised -

Nov 24 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 11/20
report -
briefing.com 335K
market 335K
last report 334K
revised -

Nov 24 9:45 AM
Mich Sentiment-Rev. Nov
report -
briefing.com 95.5
market 96.0
last report 95.5
revised -

Nov 24 10:00 AM
Help-Wanted Index Oct
report -
briefing.com 37
market 37
last report 36
revised -

Nov 24 10:00 AM
New Home Sales Oct
report -
briefing.com 1200K
market 1200K
last report 1206K
revised -

[UpInArms]

6. U.S. weekly jobless claims at lowest level since Sept

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38315.3542846296-827731425&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell 12,000 to 323,000 in the week ended Nov. 20, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. It's the lowest level since the week ended Sept. 4. The size of the decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to fall 1,000 to 333,000. The four-week average of initial claims fell 6,750 to 332,000. This is the lowest level since the week ended Nov. 18, 2000. Meanwhile, the number of former workers receiving state jobless benefits fell 29,000 to 2.76 million in the week ending Nov. 13. This is the lowest level of continuing claims since the week ended May 5, 2001.

8:29am 11/24/04 U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2001

8:29am 11/24/04 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 29,000 TO 2.76 MLN

8:29am 11/24/04 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE NOV. 2000

8:29am 11/24/04 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 6,750 TO 332,000

8:29am 11/24/04 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE SEPT.

8:29am 11/24/04 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 12,000 TO 323,000

8:30am 11/24/04 U.S. OCT. DURABLE GOODS DOWN 0.4% VS FORECAST UP 0.6%

8:30am 11/24/04 U.S. OCT. DURABLE GOODS DECLINE IS LARGEST SINCE AUGUST

8:30am 11/24/04 U.S. SEPT. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED UP 0.9% VS 0.2%

[MrUnderhill]

19. Not so bad....

...best jobless claims of HIS presidency anyway

[UpInArms]

21. do you think the early reporting might have

affected the report?

And do you think this number will continue to shrink as the workforce shrinks?

[MrUnderhill]

25. Early reporting?

Can you be more specific?

As for the shrinking workforce... No, I don't see that as even a rounding error in these numbers. It's based on the idea that people who have completely exhausted their ability to get unemployment checks have GOTTEN jobs and then LOST them again. And since they can't GET payouts... they don't "file" a first-time claim for THIS layoff.

That's just not a large enough pool to affect this number substantially - even assuming that people who have been recently unemployed are marginally more likely to get laid off again than those who have not.

Also, aren't there other state/federal benefits (job training, food stamps, whatever) that require you to have filed this paperwork even if you are not entitled to the actual unemployment insurance payout?

[UpInArms]

26. this report came out on Wednesday - usually on Thursday

is that not "early reporting" or will it only affect next week (with it being a "holiday" week that is shortened?

[MrUnderhill]

29. Ah... I see. No I doubt that affects it.

The numbers are for the previous week, right? So they just have to compile them a little faster.

And yes, I'd expect thanksgiving to have a couple effects... fewer companies laying off right around the holiday AND one fewer day the office will be open for filings (though that would be a small effect because many people would know that in advance and just come a day before or after)

However, both of these should be anticipated - and therefore part of the seasonal adjustment for the week. In other words... it shouldn't matter.

Remember the two weeks where the number went unexpectedly down and then back up again because the seasonal adjustment had mis-timed the annual layoff of auto workers for re-tooling the lines? Well... Thanksgiving isn't going to get mis-timed.

[UpInArms]

7. U.S. Oct. durable goods unexpectedly down 0.4%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38315.3543137153-827731463&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- New orders for U.S.-made durable goods unexpectedly dropped 0.4 percent in October after the prior month's increase was revised sharply upward, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists were expecting orders to rise about 0.6 percent in September, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Total orders rose a revised 0.9 percent in September, up from the 0.2 percent increase previously reported. The widespread decline, the second in three months, was softened by a rise in orders of transportation related goods.

[RawMaterials]

9. So here comes Hyperinflation????

Less goods and more money supply, right?

[UpInArms]

11. At this point,

I don't think it would be hyperinflation - you should notice an increase of inventories as fewer purchases are made (remember only the top 1% will be possessing the most $$$ and they won't have a "need" to spend) - the cost of survival (the CPI) will rise as the rising cost of commodities begins to affect the PPI (what we began seeing last month because they could no longer keep that number static) - with fewer foreign investors buying dollars and lending them back to us, you will actually see fewer dollars in circulation in the US.

Then, as inventories build, more corporations will lay of more production workers and the cycle will really escalate.

[RawMaterials]

18. The whole inflations great as long

as you can keep your job and get raises equal to or greater then inflation.

[MrUnderhill]

20. And/or as long as your mortgage is at a fixed rate...

...and you don't have to move.

[RawMaterials]

22. no mortgage or house to worry about...

Maybe if i keep my job and get my credit score up, i can score a mcmansion that just got foreclosed on because someone wanted a 5/1 arm.
Just got rid of my CC debt.

[MrUnderhill]

24. Then your rent is likely to increase with inflation.

And the way things are going right now... salaries will probably not increase fast enough.


High inflation helps those with lots of low-rate debt and little in savings... and hurts those with lots of assets at fixed rates (quite a few retired folks who don't structure their investments properly) and/or variable-rate debt.


Congratulations on your credit card debt!

[UpInArms]

17. U.S. durable goods off 0.4% in October (more detail)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5181E590%2D92F8%2D414B%2D9A54%2DA6A66A206DC8%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- New orders for U.S.-made durable goods unexpectedly dropped 0.4 percent in October after the prior month's increase was revised sharply upward, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Economists had been anticipating orders would rise about 0.6 percent in September, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

<snip>

Excluding the 0.3 percent rise in transportation goods, orders for durable goods fell 0.7 percent in October. Excluding defense-related goods, new orders fell 1.5 percent on the month.

<snip>

Orders for electronics sank 5.7 percent, marking the largest drop in 11 months. The orders figure excludes semiconductors.

With semiconductors included, shipments of electronics fell 3.6 percent last month.

<snip>

The 0.3 percent increase in orders for transportation goods reflected growth of 35.2 percent in defense-related aircraft. Civilian aircraft and auto parts both fell.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. UMich Nov. consumer sentiment revised to 92.8 vs 95.5

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38315.4092913657-827737814&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Consumer sentiment fell back in late November, according to media reports Friday of proprietary research from the University of Michigan. The UMich consumer sentiment index weakened to 92.8 in late November from 95.5 earlier in the month. Economists were expecting a increase to about 96.0. The index is still above the October sentiment level of 91.7 in October.

9:47am 11/24/04 UMICH NOV. CONSUMER SENTIMENT BELOW CONSENSUS 96

9:47am 11/24/04 UMICH NOV. CONSUMER SENTIMENT REVISED TO 92.8 VS 95.5

[UpInArms]

33. U.S. Oct. new home sales up 0.2% to 1.226 mln units

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38315.4167234954-827738500&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Sales of new homes in the United States unexpectedly rose 0.2 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.226 million units, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It's the highest level since May and the third highest level on record. Economists had been expecting about 1.20 million units, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. The median price of a new home sold in October rose 9.1 percent to $221,800 from $203,300. Home prices have risen 14.3 percent since October of last year. Home sales rose in the Northeast and the West, while sales fell in the Midwest and the South, the country's largest region.

10:00am 11/24/04 U.S. OCT. NEW HOME SALES UP 0.2% TO 1.226 MLN UNITS

10:00am 11/24/04 U.S. OCT. MEDIAN SALES PRICE UP 9.1% TO 221,800

10:00am 11/24/04 U.S. OCT. NEW HOME SALES THIRD HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD

[UpInArms]

34. U.S. Oct help wanted index rises to 37 vs 36

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38315.4172012732-827738668&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The volume of help-wanted advertising in major U.S. newspapers increased in October, the Conference Board said Wednesday. The help wanted index rose to 37 from 36 in September. Seventy one percent of 51 major markets saw rising volumes of employment advertising, up from 25 percent in September.

10:00am 11/24/04 U.S. OCT. HELP WANTED INDEX RISES TO 37 VS. 36

[UpInArms]

39. Petroleum Inventories Report

10:32am 11/24/04 U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 100,000 BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:32am 11/24/04 U.S. GASOLINE STKS UP 1.8 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:32am 11/24/04 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 1 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:32am 11/24/04 JAN CRUDE IS DOWN 74C AT $48.20/BRL IN NY

[RawMaterials]

4. Natural Gas Jan 05 - Liquidation Continues

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/101090/content.asp?menu=commodities

Natural Gas Jan 05 - Liquidation Continues
Support: 7.20, 7.00, 6.50
Resistance: 8.20, 8.34, 8.80
5-Day Ave. Range: 0.37 ($3700 per contract)

Gas remains under pressure as long liquidation continues. Open interest has dropped 12,763 contracts between Oct-26 and Nov-19. While the market is very weak technically, January (F) gas often shows a blip of strength in late November (and sometimes much more than a blip) before weakening again into late December. Traders should begin thinking about price levels where buying interest might be found, even if such buying turns out to be only temporary.

There are two downside support levels that interest us. The first one is 7.20, representing the approximate June high (blue dotted line). The second one is psychological round number support at 7.00, which also happens to be a fibonacci extension of the Oct-13 and Oct-27 up leg.

- Look to cover or reduce shorts on signs of support between 7.20 and 7.00 with the intention of re-establishing shorts on a bounce. A break of 7.00 would be very bearish.

[RawMaterials]

5. DJ NY Precious Metals Pre-Open: Gold Up 90c, Silver Up 2c

While the U.S. dollar weakness heightened gold's allure as an alternative,
heavy bullion bank sales in advance of the psychologically significant
$450-per-ounce level slowed gold's progress on the spot market overnight and
capped prices at $449.75.

Profit taking by funds ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday also kept $450 out of reach. Sources agreed that more such selling can be expected throughout
Wednesday.

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/AFX/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=i4513271919643983936

[RawMaterials]

8. Cingular To Cut 10 Percent of Workforce

http://www.localtechwire.com/article.cfm?u=9945

Special To LTW
ATLANTA – With the merger of AT&T Wireless complete, Cingular is making plans to cut its 68,000-person workforce by 10 percent, the company’s CEO told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

The reductions will be made over the next 12 to 18 months, said Stan Sigman in an interview.

"It's not going to be in the big groups of people. The big groups of people are in customer care," Sigman told The AP. "This isn't about closing stores or distribution channels, nothing like that."

However, he said there would be no “forced layoffs” until the first
of the year.

....But remember everything is going great now that bush is in office to give out more tax cuts and dump SS into the Stock martke(err pyramid scheme)

[RawMaterials]

10. Euro Climbs to Record as ECB May Refrain From Stemming Advance

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aJCDyYV8gap0&refer=us

The European currency has gained almost 2 cents since Nov. 19, when ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said he will stick to his view that the euro's moves are ``brutal'' and ``not welcome.'' ECB policy makers may refrain from selling the euro to halt gains unless it rises to $1.35 ``in the next few weeks,'' said Kristjan Kasikov, a currency strategist at Calyon.

``There has been a notable lack of comments, which suggests that the ECB is not close to intervening,'' said London-based Kasikov at Calyon, the investment-banking unit of Credit Agricole SA. ``At the moment they might still be hoping that this is a temporary speculative move.''

Against the dollar, the euro gained to $1.3147 at 7:59 a.m. in New York from $1.3086 late yesterday, according to EBS, an electronic currency-dealing system. It earlier rose to a record $1.3169. The dollar fell to 102.87 yen, from 103.31. Kasikov predicts the euro will climb to $1.32 by year-end

snip..

Lowest Since 1995

European officials' remarks are ``completely pushed aside when Greenspan speaks and alerts the market, saying the dollar's going down lads, so let's forget about it,'' said Hughes, who bought the euro two days ago in a portfolio his team manages. He expects it to gain to $1.3350 by Christmas.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Nov. 19 in Frankfurt that overseas investors may tire of financing the U.S. current-account gap and diversify into assets denominated in other currencies. ``A diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point,'' he said.

snop..

The Dollar Index may drop to 80 before the dollar stops falling, said Pearson. The index's 1995 low was 80.05, the weakest for the dollar since 1992.

``We see nothing in sight to stop the dollar's weakness,'' said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who manages $1 billion of overseas bonds at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo.

..snup

..IS the glass half full, or half empty??

[RawMaterials]

12. Fed Will Increase Benchmark Rate Next Month, Bond Firms Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ajMFYrAfLD3w&refer=us

The Federal Reserve will raise the interest-rate target for overnight loans between banks a quarter point to 2.25 percent next month to head off inflation, said 20 of the 22 largest bond-trading firms.

``I threw in the towel when I saw the inflation numbers,'' said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York. ``You put those three things together -- good employment, strong retail sales activity and stirring inflation - - and it seems like a situation where the Fed should be moving again.''

snip..


Most dealers that were forecasting no Fed rate increase in December cited a surge in oil to a record $55.67 a barrel in October. They speculated that rising energy costs would crimp consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy.

snip..

Olson's comments ``convinced me they were extremely comfortable with market expectations for a rate hike at the end of the year,'' said Eric Green, chief market economist at Countrywide Securities Corp. in Calabasas, California. He said he changed his forecast that day.

The dollar's nearly 3 percent decline against a basket of six major currencies since the end of October further solidifies the case for a December rate increase, some economists said. A falling dollar may boost growth by making U.S. products cheaper overseas and imports more expensive.

``Fed officials seem to think a weakening dollar to some degree will help push the economy along by narrowing the trade gap,'' Bear Stearns' Ryding said.

12/31/04 3/31/05 12/31/05
Target Target Target

ABN Amro* 2.25 2.75 3
BNP Paribas 2.25 2.75 4.25
Banc of America* 2.25 3 3.50
Barclays Capital 2.25 2.50 3.50
Bear Stearns* 2.25 2.50 4
CIBC World Markets* 2.25 2.25 2.25
Citigroup* 2.25 2.75 3.75
Countrywide* 2.25 2.50 3.25
CSFB* 2.25 2.50 3.50
Daiwa* 2.25 2.50 3.75
Deutsche Bank* 2.25 2.50 4
Dresdner NA NA NA
Goldman Sachs 2.25 2.75 3.50
HSBC* 2.25 2.75 2.75
JPMorgan Chase 2.25 2.75 4.25
Lehman Brothers* 2.25 2.50 3.25
Merrill Lynch 2 2 2
Mizuho 2.25 2.75 3.50
Morgan Stanley* 2.25 2.25 3
Nomura* 2.25 2.75 3.50
RBS Greenwich 2.25 2.75 4.25
UBS Warburg* 2.25 2.50 4

*Firm changed its 12/31/04 forecast from 2 percent

[ozymandius]

13. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

-cut past many charts-

We believe that investors need to pay some additional attention to gold and gold stocks. The current chart pattern sometimes resolves with a fake break down, which is then followed by a ferocious rally (see chart). If the HUI breaks channel support, wait to see what happens once it gets into the 220-210 zone. If it reverses strongly to the upside and gets back into the channel, things can get really interesting very, very fast.

-cut-

Take a good look at the current set up. Just like the BSE, the T.O. rolled over while price has continued to rise. That means the current leg of the rally is the last one. Therefore at this point there are two possibilities:

a) Either the "last leg" is not over yet, or,

b) Friday's reversal did mark the end, and the price action we saw on Monday and Tuesday was nothing but a "dead-cat" bounce. If the indices can't get above last week's highs within the next two trading days, then in all likelihood today's will turn out to be a dead cat bounce. If last week's highs are exceeded on a closing basis, then we have to continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bullish case.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

14. Treasurys trend lower on drop in U.S. jobless claims

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38315.3666603819-827732812&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The Treasury market offered an initial mixed reaction before turning lower after early U.S. economic data after weekly jobless claims tumbled and investors found underlying strength in durable goods data. The 10-year Treasury note was 1/32 lower, at 100 16/32. Its yield <$tnx> stood at 4.19 percent.

[UpInArms]

15. here's some of the scuttlebutt on HP's pending layoffs

HP admits layoffs, takes massive charge

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=19865

excerpt:

In another shock, it seems the divisions that will be hit are servers and storage. Who would have guessed? Next up are the inkjet people, and you thought you were immune? If it sounds insane, like they are killing the goose that laid the golden egg, well, yes, welcome to the new HP.

If you read the reports, they are saying that HP hired 8000 workers last year, but what it will not tell you is where. They are laying off more, hiring less, and not saying where.

Hint, the new jobs are not in the US. As we said earlier, this is a classic stealth layoff technique. We did warn you.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

23. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the cash market as upbeat sentiment in futures market remains intact... A solid earnings report and outlook from TECD, as well as expectations for a Thanksgiving rally, have been underpinning factors

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. October Durable Goods Orders just came in worse than expected at -0.4% versus consensus of +0.5%... The non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft number was -3.6%... Meanwhile, weekly initial claims came in at 323K, below the 335K consensus... Futures markets relatively unchanged since the release and indicating a higher start for equities

8:22AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.5. Futures market trading with a positive bias, perhaps in anticipation of a Thanksgiving rally... As such, the cash market looks poised ahead of the economic data at 08:30 ET to open higher

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.5. Futures market versus fair value indicates a higher open for the cash market ahead of several pieces of economic data this morning... First out (at 8:30 ET) will be October Durable Goods Orders (consensus +0.5%) and weekly jobless claims (consensus 335K)

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as they continue to rebound off the 10-day moving average crossing at 1564.65. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned sideways signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1564.65 then Monday's low crossing at 1547 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 4.50 pts. at 1574.50 as of 5:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off Monday's low, which spiked below initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1179.94. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned sideways signaling that a short- term top might be in or is near. If this fall's rally resumes, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1164.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was up 2.00 pts. at 1181 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

27. 9:35 EST markets are open

Dow 10,514.61 +22.01 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,094.48 +10.20 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,180.95 +4.01 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.193% +0.009

NYSE Volume 37,400,000
Nasdaq Volume 103,904,000

[UpInArms]

35. 10:07 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,506.57 +13.97 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,094.48 +10.20 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,181.01 +4.07 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.180% -0.004

NYSE Volume 182,066,000
Nasdaq Volume 340,971,000

10:00AM: The market continues to show some resilience, so far shrugging off another piece of less than expected economic news... A revised November Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan came in at 92.8, below the consensus of 96.0 but better than the October reading of 91.7... Earlier, October Durable Goods Orders (-0.4%) came in worse than expected (consensus was +0.5%), however, upward revisions to the prior month's data served as a mitigating factor...

October New Home Sales of 1.23 mln versus consensus of 1.2 mln were just reported while the Help-Wanted Index matched consensus of 37... Weekly US oil inventories will be reported at 10:30 ET... Analysts are expecting an increase of 700K barrels for crude and an increase of 350K for distillates...NYSE Adv/Dec 1925/692, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1489/949

9:40AM: As expected, the cash market opens higher as sellers wait to see just how far an anticipated Thanksgiving rally gets off the ground... Under pressure in the wake of a JP Morgan downgrade has been yesterday's most active stock of the day, Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 6.24 -0.47)... Separately, a revised reading on the November Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (consensus 96.0) is expected in about five minutes...

Last trade 82.47 Change -0.50 (-0.60%)

Settle 82.97 Settle Time 23:33

Open 82.94 Previous Close 82.97

High 82.96 Low 82.41

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-24 09:38:00 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[MidwestMomma]

30. I've got stock options from my company to exercise on Friday

Think stocks will stay up for the day? I sure hope so. Baby needs a new pair of shoes!

[MrUnderhill]

37. Why friday?

Is it the first (or last) day they can be exercised?

The markets aren't going to move enough to make that big a deal... but individual stocks could do a lot. Nobody on this thread is qualified to give you a "sell" price for most individual stocks.

You could try their Yahoo message board (if you tell me the company I can get you a link). But my experience is that those forums are usually filled with more worthless information than they are worth.

[UpInArms]

36. DuPont to build $10M paint lab in Japan

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38315.4211278241-827739109&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - DuPont (DD) Wednesday said it plans to build a $10 million laboratory in Japan to facilitate technical approvals for automotive coatings used by Japanese auto manufacturers worldwide and to support their home country assembly operations. The new facility, in Aichi Prefecture, will open in the third quarter of 2005, and employ about 30 scientists, DuPont said. In early trade the stock rose 10 cents to $45.22.

[UpInArms]

38. Dollar "achieves" new low of 82.38

Last trade 82.41 Change -0.56 (-0.67%)

Settle 82.97 Settle Time 23:33

Open 82.94 Previous Close 82.97

High 82.96 Low 82.38

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-24 09:59:12 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[TrogL]

45. Gotcha beat

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Low 82.37

Last tick: 2004-11-24 12:20:16 ET

[TrogL]

40. Loonie Watch

The Loonie Watch website has moved to a more reliable server with less popups.

New link is here -> http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Please update your links or bookmarks. (OK, so I can dream, can't I?)

The loonie is having its morning caffeine rush.

Last trade 0.84620 Change +0.00390 (+0.46%)

Settle 0.84240 Settle Time 16:56

Open 0.84240 Previous Close 0.84240

High 0.84750 Low 0.84230

Bid 0.84690 Ask 0.84700

Volume 6,826 Open Int. 97068

Morning economics news (CBC) showed unemployment down slightly but with concerns that those might be McJobs. There's call for the minimum wage to be raised to $10 (a 40%+ hike) in order to combat child poverty.

TD Canada Trust doubled its profits from last year. Its share price dropped by 55 cents. Go figure. :wtf:

[TrogL]

44. Musta had a second cuppa

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s

High 0.84780

Here's some blather.

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally and posted another new contract high. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December continues this fall's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .8595 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8322 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

Hmmmm....

Looks like we crossed the "upside target" yesterday 'cause the number's gone way up today. I take it that's what he means by "new contract high".

We're still well on track for a dollar loonie - something I thought I'd never see again in my lifetime.

I tried explaining some of what's going on to my father-in-law accountant. He hasn't been watching the markets or the exchange rates. I couldn't figure out whether the look he was giving me was "deer in the headlights" or "gee look at the pretty space alien".

[TrogL]

46. OK, we're gettin' into the second pot here

0.84860

Any bets on 0.8500 ?

[TrogL]

51. more numbers

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2004-10-25 Monday, October 25 0.817528 USD
2004-10-26 Tuesday, October 26 0.816593 USD
2004-10-27 Wednesday, October 27 0.816127 USD
2004-10-28 Thursday, October 28 0.820075 USD
2004-10-29 Friday, October 29 0.819068 USD
2004-11-01 Monday, November 1 0.817728 USD
2004-11-02 Tuesday, November 2 0.815461 USD
2004-11-03 Wednesday, November 3 0.825014 USD
2004-11-04 Thursday, November 4 0.829669 USD
2004-11-05 Friday, November 5 0.834655 USD
2004-11-08 Monday, November 8 0.838574 USD
2004-11-09 Tuesday, November 9 0.83682 USD
2004-11-10 Wednesday, November 10 0.834934 USD
2004-11-12 Friday, November 12 0.838997 USD
2004-11-15 Monday, November 15 0.831117 USD
2004-11-16 Tuesday, November 16 0.838082 USD
2004-11-17 Wednesday, November 17 0.838574 USD
2004-11-18 Thursday, November 18 0.8285 USD
2004-11-19 Friday, November 19 0.838364 USD
2004-11-23 Tuesday, November 23 0.842815 USD
2004-11-24 Wednesday, November 24 0.846525 USD





A bit of a mixed day for the loonie. The greenback lost ground, causing an apparent rise in the loonie. However, it fell against most currencies except the Ozzie (which had been showing surprising strength - perhaps at the end of its run).

[UpInArms]

41. 10:37 EST numbers, blather, buck and 'bye!

Dow 10,488.68 -3.92 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,092.02 +7.74 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,178.68 +1.74 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.188% +0.004

NYSE Volume 298,638,000
Nasdaq Volume 512,080,000

10:35 ET Stocks hang onto slims gains in the early going, as sellers haven't exerted any really concerted pressure to this point... The biggest movers to the upside have been airlines, after UBS Upgraded Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL 6.95 +0.40) to Buy from Reduce and America West Holdings Corp. (AWA 5.81 +0.32) and Southwest Airlines (LUV 15.93 +0.34) to Buy from Neutral, respectively... Also showing strength have been the semiconductor, transportation, biotech and financial stocks while oil, telecom service and managed health care have shown some weakness... Separately, weekly US crude oil inventories just came in up 100K barrels, lower than the expected increase of 700K barrels, while distillates recorded an increase of 1 mln barrels versus an expected increase of 350K... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2015/870. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1589/1062.

Last trade 82.42 Change -0.55 (-0.66%)

Settle 82.97 Settle Time 23:33

Open 82.94 Previous Close 82.97

High 82.96 Low 82.38

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-24 10:07:15 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Gotta run away and do that "real life" thing :D

Have a Great Day and Happy Thanksgiving Marketeers :hi:

[JNelson6563]

42. 11:34 update

Dow 10,510.56 +17.96 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,100.49 +16.21 (+0.78%)
S&P 500 1,180.94 +4.00 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182% -0.002

Looks like we're managing to stay in positive territory. For now.

Julie

[UpInArms]

47. 3:04 EST numbers, blather and the buck

just a hit and run post :)

Dow 10,499.25 +6.65 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,099.55 +15.27 (+0.73%)
S&P 500 1,180.90 +3.96 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.195% +0.011

NYSE Volume 922,525,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,325,859,000

3:00PM: Market breadth remains bullish but volumes continue to deteriorate... As expected, volume has been relatively light today as many investors have left early for the Thanksgiving holiday - NYSE volumes have yet to reach 1 bln shares while the Nasdaq didn't surpass the 1 bln share level until around 2:00 ET... However, bear in mind that Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 6.31 -0.40) has accounted for nearly one fifth of the Composite's total as traders have taken heed of a J.P. Morgan downgrade of the stock...NYSE Adv/Dec 2283/964, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1772/1285

2:30PM: Limited conviction heading into the end of the session has left the Dow fighting to stay in positive territory... General Electric (GE 35.59 -0.22), which said it would acquire water treatment company Ionics (ION 43.38 +13.63) for about $1.1 bln plus the assumption of debt, has impeded the Dow's progress today... Separately, Dow component Boeing (BA 53.90 -0.43) has also found some selling interest after news surfaced that an existing contract to replace old refueling aircraft could be delayed long enough to completely shut down its 767 production line...NYSE Adv/Dec 2250/993, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1747/1290

2:00PM: Little change over the last half hour as investors look for last-minute buying opportunities ahead of the biggest shopping day of the year... As such, the retail sector (+0.31%) has exhibited a positive bias, but not every retailer has chalked up gains... Jefferies & Co. downgraded Pier 1 Imports (PIR 18.69 -0.11) to Hold from Buy, citing valuation, which has left shares struggling to catch a bid...

Last trade 82.36 Change -0.57 (-0.69%)

Settle 82.41 Settle Time 13:37

Open 82.94 Previous Close 82.97

High 82.96 Low 82.35

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-24 14:28:33 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[ozymandius]

43. Have a wonderful holiday all.

Sorry to have been so absent - this morning has been nuts.

See you all on the short trading day. :hi:

Ozy

[alexisfree]

48. thats it...go gold

[UpInArms]

50. Gold futures near $450, end at another multi-year high

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/marketPulse.asp?doctype=-1&siteid=mktw&mp=1

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- December gold rose $1.40 to close at $449.30 an ounce in New York, marking another fresh June 1988 settlement high. "We do believe that gold will continue to strengthen over the coming days and weeks, reaching higher levels," said Frederic Panizzutti, an analyst at MKS Finance in Geneva. "The key short-term and prevailing factor will continue to be the U.S. dollar value," he said. Regular metals futures trading in New York will resume Monday, following the Thanksgiving holiday.

[UpInArms]

49. Natural gas ends at three-week high; oil nears $50

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38315.6413453935-827762497&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Natural-gas futures closed near their highest levels in three weeks following a bigger-than-expected fall in last week's U.S. supplies. December natural gas rose 17.4 percent to close at $7.976 per million British thermal units and January natural gas, which became the lead-month contract at the session close, rose 13.4 percent to end at $8.639. The strength helped pull January crude up by 50 cents to close at $49.44 -- its highest close since Nov. 5.

3:18pm 11/24/04 DEC HEATING OIL UP 0.58C TO CLOSE AT $1.4516/GAL

3:18pm 11/24/04 NATGAS FUTURES CLOSE NEAR A THREE-WEEK HIGH

3:18pm 11/24/04 JAN NATGAS UP $1.018, OR 13.4%, TO END AT $8.639

3:18pm 11/24/04 DEC NATAS CLOSES AT $7.976, UP $1.183, OR 17.4%

[UpInArms]

52. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,520.31 +27.71 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,102.54 +18.26 (+0.88%)
S&P 500 1,181.76 +4.82 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.195% +0.011

NYSE Volume 1,152,069,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,637,535,000

The broader averages shrugged off higher oil prices and mixed economic data to close near their highs of the session... Fittingly, virtually every sector finished stronger as investors showed little hesitation holding stocks going into the Thanksgiving holiday... Separately, positive analyst actions regarding airline, semiconductor and Internet stocks kept those groups in positive territory from start to finish while financial, homebuilding, transportation and materials also recorded gains... The FDA's approval of Biogen-Idec's (BIIB 58.59 +1.16) MS drug also sparked buying interest in biotech while the pharmaceutical sector, pressured early by a Smith Barney downgrade on AstraZeneca (AZN 39.64 -0.44), inched out a gain in the closing minutes... The only laggard today was telecom service, which traded lower on the heels of UBS downgrade SBC Communications (SBC 25.34 -0.12) and BellSouth (BLS 27.08 -0.06)... Crude oil ($49.44/bbl +$0.50), per usual, proved to be another focal point... Initially, oil prices dropped following the Dept. of Energy's weekly inventory report that was highlighted by a larger than expected 1.0 mln barrel build of distillate inventories (consensus +350K)... The January crude futures contract, however, staged an ambitious afternoon rebound that was driven by reports of a larger than expected 49 bln cubic foot drawdown of natural gas supplies... The indices, though, held their ground in the face of rising oil prices... There was a full batch of economic data Wednesday, but it had little impact on the overall action that saw light participation from the professional crowd... With respect to the data, October durable goods orders were down 0.4%, worse than an expected increase of 0.5%; however, upward revisions to the prior month's results acted as a mitigating factor... Similarly, the revised Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, at 92.8, was below the market's expectation for a reading of 96.0, yet there was little cause for concern given the recognition that it was still above the 91.7 reading seen in October... Initial claims, meanwhile, were a bit better than expected at 323K (consensus 335K), as were new home sales (1226K vs consensus 1200K), which provided further evidence of continued strength in the housing market... ..SOX +0.92%. ..DOT +1.29%. ..XOI +0.65%. ..BTK +1.0%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2403/894. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1926/1177.

dollar

Last trade 82.38 Change -0.57 (-0.69%)

Settle 82.41 Settle Time 15:33

Open 82.94 Previous Close 82.97

High 82.96 Low 82.35

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-24 15:58:33 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

53. Damn, I missed out on all the fun today. Sure wasn't a "really" up day,

but at least it was up.

Sorry to have cut out on everyone - had "real life" sneak up on me today. May not be around much Friday either, are the markets even open Friday?

Anyway, hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving. :hi:

Meanwhile, I've got a couple of articles to toss out here.

[54anickel]

54. Short route to a political statement (Heh-heh!)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7B5608A9C7-A82C-427E-9EB5-EB3121C3E19B%7D&sitei

SANTA MONICA, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- Mad as hell about corporate policy? A new hedge fund is, and it's putting its money where its mouth is with an investment strategy of shorting shares of companies with which it takes issue.

By buying put options, or shorting a stock, the hedge fund hopes shares will fall, in effect punishing a company for what it calls "misdeeds" and profiting all the while. A portion of profits will go toward mending the social wounds inflicted by target companies.

The fund is the brainchild of Max Keiser, the investment activist, for lack of a better definition, who launched Karmabanque.com several years ago on a similar philosophy. Zac Goldsmith, son of famed corporate raider Sir James Goldsmith, is also a partner in the venture. Goldsmith's The Ecologist magazine will audit, track and publish results.

"For every 1,000 new boycotters, I and my group of investors/activists, including Zac, will increase the size of the fund by 5,000 pounds," says Keiser. "All profits (minus a two percent processing fee) will go the groups/people who are the victims of bad companies."

The London-based fund's first target is Coca Cola (KO: news, chart, profile).

more...

[54anickel]

55. NY gold ends up near $450/oz; busy rollover trade

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=MTFH54137_2004-11-24_19-37-23_N24519377

NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold futures gained but ended below $450-an-ounce resistance on Wednesday, as dollar weakness supported prices near 16-1/4-year highs while dealers busily switched futures contracts before the Thanksgiving holiday.

snip>

Volume was extremely heavy as traders transferred positions from December gold into February futures and, to a lesser extent, June gold, before next week's first notice day for metal delivery.

Estimated turnover was a staggering 290,000 contracts, with 80,215 switches.

COMEX and NYMEX markets will be shut on Thursday and Friday in observance of Thanksgiving Day.

Persistent trade selling at the highs prevented the market from breaking above stiff resistance at $450 in the nearby December contract, dealers said, even as gold got a boost from the dollar's fall to a fresh all-time low versus the euro.

"I'm leery that they haven't gotten it above $450, which leads me to believe there are probably some stops (stop-loss sell orders) filling in underneath," one floor trader said.

"If the trade really wants to whack it, maybe they can and touch off some stops on the downside."

more...


Edit to add: Oh yeah, and yesterday the bullion banks were selling

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=i4513041146756005952

DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Lower On Profit Taking
Tuesday, November 23, 2004 7:46:14 PM
http://www.osterdowjones.com/



DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Lower On Profit Taking

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased from an early stretch to contract highs of $449.40 per ounce to below the $448 mark on pre-Thanksgiving profit taking amid quiet conditions.

The most-active December contract (100 ounces each) settled $1.10 lower at $447.90 per ounce.

Gold futures got off to a strong start and opened with a charge to the
contract high, fueled by fund and dealer buying sparked by the U.S. dollar's descent to all-time lows against the euro overnight.

However, good levels of bullion bank selling emerged into that early drive to halt the charge ahead of the $450 mark and then turn prices lower as the morning progressed.

Some speculative long liquidation and profit taking then also surfaced. Players became disappointed with gold's lack of upside momentum and mindful of the impending closure of the Comex markets Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving and the need to tidy or square-off positions before then.

"Overall the market is still bullish and looking to make a test of $450. But with Thanksgiving coming the near-term emphasis is on book squaring and lightening up on positions so that people can enjoy the long weekend," said Bernard Hunter, a director at Scotia Mocatta in Toronto.

more...

[54anickel]

56. The G-20’s Piecemeal Solutions Won’t Work

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

The Group of 20 leading rich and emerging market nations met last weekend in Berlin. All decided on a co-ordinated effort to reduce global trade imbalances by cutting the US budget deficit, reforms to boost growth in Europe and Japan, and increasing exchange rate flexibility in Asia (read Chinese currency revaluation).

It all sounds great, but is unlikely to work. The US is highly unlikely to cut its budget deficit, given the ongoing military commitments implied in its war on terror (is Iran next on the list?). Indeed, it is questionable whether such action is desirable if the alternative is simply the household sector driving itself yet deeper into debt.

It is equally improbable to expect Euroland economies to adopt supply-side reforms designed to boost long term growth when the short term impact will likely prove deflationary against a backdrop of faltering domestic demand. Yet the continuing appreciation of the euro risks aborting an incipient export-led recovery, leaving the eurozone economies in a comparably invidious position.

What about Asia? Even in the unlikely event that China were to agree to a 10 per cent revaluation of the Yuan (and the economies of emerging Asia were to follow in sympathy), it would not have the desired impact on US trade. Since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, China and the economies of emerging Asia have, despite continued higher increases in productivity in tradeables relative to the US, undergone significant devaluations in overall trade weighted terms. Indeed, one of the most noteworthy aspects of the current business cycle has been the substantial rise in the real value of the dollar against the emerging world---particularly emerging Asia.

True, China did not devalue its currency against the dollar (in contrast to the economies of emerging Asia), but it is now deriving substantial competitive benefits from the fall sustained in the greenback since 2002. In addition, even before the dollar began its current descent, China’s economy had the highest rate of growth of productivity in tradeables of any economy in the world. At a constant remnimbi-dollar exchange rate, therefore, Chinese competitiveness therefore has also improved by leaps and bounds. The mooted 10 per cent revaluation of its currency will not substantially affect its terms of trade at least insofar as it relates to the US.

For all of the talk of the dollar’s recent decline in trade weighted terms since 2002, the US has managed no trade improvement because the greenback keeps falling against the wrong currencies. Most of emerging Asia either directly pegs (e.g. China, Malaysia, and Hong Kong) or manages its currency closely against the greenback. And these are the countries, which continue to run the biggest trade surpluses with the US. The current period stands in marked contrast with the past, when higher domestic inflation plus a fixed real exchange rate caused these countries to experience an ongoing real appreciation of their currencies against the dollar (the exception being China which was a much smaller component of the global economy during the 1980s). This real appreciation of the currencies of emerging Asia (and Japan) partially offset their rapidly improving abilities to compete with the US in more and more markets.

more...

[54anickel]

57. Is the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency drawing to a close?

http://www.economist.com/agenda/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=3421877

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WHO believes in a strong dollar? Robert Rubin, Bill Clinton’s treasury secretary, most certainly did. John Snow, his successor but two, says he does but nobody believes him—if only because he wants other countries’ currencies, in particular the Chinese yuan, to go up. Mr Snow’s boss, President George Bush, in one of his mercifully rare forays into economics last week, also said he wants a muscular currency: “My nation is committed to a strong dollar.” Again, it would be fair to say that this was not taken as a ringing endorsement. “Bush’s strong-dollar policy is, in practical terms, to maintain a pool of fools to buy it all the way down,” a fund manager was quoted by Bloomberg news agency as saying. It does not help when the chairman of your central bank, Alan Greenspan, whose utterances on the economy are taken rather more seriously than Mr Bush’s, has said the day before that the dollar seems likely to fall: “Given the size of the current-account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point,” were his exact words. The foreign-exchange market immediately decided that it was sated, and the dollar fell to another record low against the euro.

Mr Greenspan’s words were of huge moment, and not just because he spoke clearly, unusual though this was, nor because the Federal Reserve rarely comments on foreign-exchange movements. No, Mr Greenspan’s words were significant because he was tacitly admitting what right-thinking economists the world over have long believed: that the emperor has no clothes.

Mr Greenspan’s previous line had been that America’s ever-expanding current-account deficit was not a problem when capital could flow so freely around the world; and that, in effect, it would continue to flow to America because the country is such a wonderful place in which to invest. Now he is saying that it won’t, or at least that investors will demand a cheaper dollar, or cheaper assets, or both, to carry on financing America’s deficit.

But Buttonwood suspects that the deeper significance of Mr Greenspan’s admission is that the game that has been played since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s is drawing to a close. The dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency—its preferred store of value, if you will—is gradually coming to an end. And, ironically, the fact that it has become so popular in recent years will only hasten its demise.

One man who undoubtedly believes in a strong dollar is Japan’s prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi. Unlike America, Japan has been putting its money where its leader’s mouth is. On behalf of the finance ministry, the Bank of Japan has bought more dollars than any other central bank has ever done. At last count, it had the equivalent of $820 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, most of it denominated in the American currency.

As goes Japan, so goes the rest of Asia. In an interview this week with the Financial Times, Li Ruogu, the deputy governor of China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, said that his country would not be rushed into revaluing the yuan, and that America should put its own shop in order. Mr Ruogu’s bank, too, has been a huge buyer of dollars in recent years. China and the rest of developing Asia now have $1.4 trillion of reserves, mostly dollars. This is more than the combined reserves of the rest of the world (excluding Japan). Thanks mostly to Asian intervention, foreign-exchange reserves at the world’s central banks have climbed from $2 trillion in 2000 to $3.5 trillion in 2004.

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[54anickel]

58. Wealth Illusion (Lotsa interesting charts & graphs)

http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/pc102204.pdf

The rise in household net worth in recent years has largely resulted from inflating prices of corporate equities in the late 1990s, and residential real estate in the past four years. But this rise in household wealth is illusory. The true measure of an increase in the wealth of a nation is the growth in its capital stock. In recent years, growth in our capital stock has slowed and the composition of the slower growth has moved in favor of McMansions and SUVs, which do little to increase the productive capacity of our economy.

In his remarks about household indebtedness to a community bankers convention on October 19, Fed Chairman Greenspan was in his usual Panglossian mood – not to worry. What especially caught my eye was the following sentence in his prepared text:

Despite the recent high debt-to-income ratios, at least some of which is more statistical than real, the ratio of households’ net worth to income has risen to a multiple of more than five after hovering around four and one-half for most of the postwar period.

Chart 1 is a graphical representation of the net worth/disposable personal income ratio to which Greenspan referred. And, indeed, since the mid 1990s, there appears to be a “new era” for the ratio of household net worth relative to after-tax income – a new era even after the end of the new era in U.S. equities.

But let’s examine how this elevated ratio of household net worth came about. There are two ways that a household can increase its net worth – by spending less than its after-tax income, otherwise known as saving, or through an increase in the value of its assets acquired through past saving. Saving in this context is defined as the net acquisition of financial assets (i.e., stocks, bonds, deposits) and tangible assets (real estate, consumer durables) less borrowing. Chart 2 shows the behavior of these means of increasing – or decreasing -- household net worth from 1952 through 2003. Starting in the mid 1990s, holding gains on assets as an influence on changes in household net worth began to outstrip saving (or net investment) by a wide margin. From 1995 through 1999, the run-up in the value of corporate equities was the principal driver of household net worth. In the past couple of years, increases in real estate values have played a big role in accounting for increases in net worth. From 1952 through 1994, holding gains were, on average, 1.7 times as big as household net investment. From 1995 through 2003, holding gains averaged 4.4 times household investment, or saving.

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[54anickel]

59. The Next Great China Gold Rush -- Dodgy Debt

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=ajzpIpB6T60E

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- It didn't make banner headlines, yet Citigroup Inc.'s investment in a Hong Kong-listed real estate outfit portends one of the big stories of 2005: Chinese debt.

The world's biggest financial services company is grabbing a 16.4 percent stake in Silver Grant International Industries Ltd., an affiliate of China's biggest buyer of distressed assets. The idea is to compete with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley in the second-largest bad-loan market after Japan.

China doesn't have liquid bond markets, yet investors are scrambling to get in on the next Chinese gold rush: More than $450 billion of bad loans held by China's four-biggest commercial banks and their asset management companies. The hope is to buy dodgy loans at a fraction of their face value and sell the assets at a profit as the world's fastest-growing major economy expands.

It's as much an economic opportunity as an investment one. China is growing 9 percent and benefiting from a gold-run mentality that's attracting most of the world's foreign direct investment. Yet its dysfunctional banking system is raising questions about the economic outlook.

China's major banks aren't banks so much as financing arms of the government. That has led to an institutionalized misallocation of capital with little regard for international norms of risk management and the extension of credit. The result is a Japan-like bad loan situation that's limiting the amount of credit flowing to worthy borrowers and economic inefficiencies galore.

$656 Billion in Bad Loans

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[54anickel]

60. Predators Circle as Yukos Tanks

http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2004/11/24/046.html

Russia's most valuable company before it was decimated by a legal onslaught, lost over a fifth of its value Tuesday ahead of a state sale of its main oil-producing unit on Dec. 19 to settle mounting tax debts.

But even as Yukos' market capitalization crumbled to less than $4 billion from a peak of more than $40 billion, traders said the company was already written off by a market now focused on likely bidders for Yuganskneftegaz, the main production unit for Russia's largest oil exporter.

"We're all looking the other way and hoping for the execution to take place quickly," said one fund manager.

Die-hard Yukos bull Merrill Lynch cut its investment rating on Yukos to "neutral" from "buy," helping send the company's shares down 22 percent to $1.60, their lowest since 2000.

"This stock will be worth zero in two to three months," added Martin Taylor, hedge fund manager at London-based Thames Capital, which handles $5.5 billion of assets. "Now, Yukos is just a tiny blip on my trading screen."

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