WP/Reuters: WHO Official Says Flu Pandemic Inevitable

[DeepModem Mom]

WHO Official Says Flu Pandemic Inevitable

By Vissuta Pothong
Reuters
Friday, November 26, 2004; 3:50 AM


BANGKOK, Nov 26 - Every country in the world must come up with a plan urgently to deal with an inevitable influenza pandemic likely to be triggered by the bird flu virus that hit Asia this year, a top global health expert said on Friday.

"I believe we are closer now to a pandemic than at any time in recent years," said Shigeru Omi, regional director for the Western Region of the World Health Organization (WHO).

"No country will be spared once it becomes pandemic," he told a news conference.

"History has taught us that influenza pandemics occur on a regular cycle, with one appearing every 20 to 30 years. On this basis, the next one is overdue.

"We believe a pandemic is highly likely unless intensified international efforts are made to take control of the situation," he said of the H5N1 avian flu virus, which has defied efforts to eradicate it in several Asian countries, most notably in Thailand.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A13707-2004Nov26?language=printer

[Cooley Hurd]

1. When was the last pandemic?

Was it the Hong Kong Flu of the late '60's?:shrug:

[amandabeech]

7. Yes. The Hong Kong flu was 1968-69 winter, I recall.

I remember because as a kid I had it. It came on very, very quickly. I went to school feeling o.k. Two hours later my Dad had to come and pick me up because I was so sick. I don't think that I left my bed for a week.

I think that the schools shut down and half our little town was down for the count.

The bird flu is expected to be worse. I can hardly wait.

[Cooley Hurd]

9. My grandmother died of it in November, 1968...

She was already deep in the throes of Alzheimer's by that point, but the HK flu killed her...:(

[pandemic_1918]

29. Past Pandemics

There were flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968, but the big one was in 1918. However, the 2004 H5N1 has the potential to be far worse because it has a case fatality rate of 70-80%

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

[area51]

2. health care

Countries w/o universal healthcare -- like the U.S. --are ripe for the spread of a pandemic.

[The Zanti Regent]

3. President Pro Life sees nothing wrong with reducing the surplus population

Gee, at least Hitler forced certain people into gas chambers with Zyklon B.

Meanwhile the BFEE has reconstructed the 1918 flu, no doubt in my mind they will release it in targeted areas like Harlem, Watts, Detroit, Chicago, DC...

What a KKKristian way to reduce the "undesireables"!

[Village Idiot]

6. Countries without VACCINE (like the USA)

are riper.

[pandemic_1918]

23. Pandemic Vaccine

The human flu vaccine won't do much for H5N1 pandemic flu. There are two companies making pandemic vaccines (Aventis and Chiron), but testing won't begin until next year. Anti-virals are pretty iffy

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_anti_virals.html

[The Backlash Cometh]

11. It's not just that.

You should see the very had hygenic practices that I commonly see in affluent white communities. On athletic fields, the kids are still sharing bottles and there is water dispersed through a hose system which I've seen kids put in their mouths.

Americans aren't prepared BECAUSE they haven't had bad experiences to remind them of why they need to adjust their behavior.

[spotbird]

4. There is only one thing certain,

that is that the United States will not respond adequately to this threat.

[gordianot]

5. I hope the so called Security Moms are feeling safe.

They were probably a Republican spin creation.

[pandemic_1918]

26. Target Population Median age

The median age of the fatal pandemic cases is 13

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

[TahitiNut]

31. The median of Dolly Parton's breasts is at her sternum, too.

It's a bimodal distribution, so the median is hardly illuminating.

[Deja Q]

20. So how come nobody infected has made it into America yet?

(I don't mean to sound cynical. I'm amazed that given the corporate media attention the flu vaccine shortage has gotten that nobody has taken advantage of it. :scared: )

[marew]

8. Pandemic flu

I was 22 and right out of college when I caught the flu in the fall of 68. I only recently read the intensity of the '68 flu was comparable to the epidemic of '18. I felt like I almost died, lost 12 lbs. in 3 days and kept going in and out of consciousness. This was the sickest I have ever been, couldn't even stand up, much too sick to even think about going to a doctor. (I am the opposite of a hypochondriac.) But I was young, strong, and healthy and made it. If something like that comes again, a lot of people are going to die. Thanks, George, You were warned.

[Ian David]

10. If you get the flu, write letters to Republicans

Paper letters.

Not emails.

If you get the flu, send paper letters to Republicans in Congress.

And don't forget to lick the envelope well, to be certain it's sealed.

[Cooley Hurd]

12. AHAHAHAHA!!

Nice idea! :D

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[hedda_foil]

13. I like the way you think!

Welcome to DU!

[Straight Shooter]

14. So their staff can open the letters? No thanks.

I don't want the mailroom person or a staffer getting ill. The Repub congress critter will never touch the letter.

[gordianot]

15. The staffers are also Repukes.

I think this is a good idea. Would never want some one to get the flu.

[leftchick]

16. repukes indeed, and....

they might pass it around the office before they know they are infected!

[amandabeech]

17. If bird flu gets started, it will spread like crazy.

You won't have to send infected letters to anyone. One trip on the bus, the subway or an elevator will do the trick.

[Ian David]

18. Oooh. My bad.

Some of you seem to think that I implied it was a good idea to get our elected representatives sick.

For the record, I never said that.

We depend on the them to keep us safe from gay marriage and those who hate us for our freedom.

We know that since the alleged "anthrax attack" (probably done by the CIA) there is now more Anthrax vaccine than we can possibly-- if ever-- use. Why? Because someone supposedly mailed some to congress.

Besides, I don't think you can get the flu through the mail.

But if you could, I bet there would never be a flu vaccine shortage again in this country.

Meanwhile, we need to lobby our congressmen to ration the vaccine weighted by population density. More vaccine to densely populated areas, like cities. New York, Los Angeles, Boston, etc. Gee, those are all in blue states...

[rvgwinn]

19. shortage

With a mojor shortage of flu shots, it would be interesting to see how fast bush would react. Since he "didn't" get a shot himself.Ya right!

[jdonaldball]

27. MEN who get the flu should give Rick Santorum a big sloppy kiss

[AlienGirl]

21. I wonder if there is a flu shot for birds?

Seriously, I'm not that worried for myself: chances are I'll survive flu. But I have a cockatoo...

Tucker

[pandemic_1918]

25. Animal Pandemic Vaccine

Animal pandemic vaccines are available, but most probably won't be effective against pandemic H5N1. Others in Asia should be better, but there are many questions and some have speculated that a poorly mismatched animal vaccine in China led to the current outbreak.

In any event, the H5N1 from Vietnam and Thailand are Amantadine and Ramantadine resistant, which typically happens in patients treated with Amantadine or Ramantadine, strongly suggesting that one of the viral parents of the outbreak in those two countries probably arose from a pig or human treated with Amantadine.

Consequently, the only antiviral left is Tamiflu, but its ability to stop or curb a pandemic is very iffy

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_anti_virals.html

[HereSince1628]

22. Epidemiologists' jobs include providing warnings...

Suppose that a disease had a 1% likelihood of causing an epidemic in a given year... Well, because of the supposition being above zero, the inevitability becomes rational.

Risk assessment is complex if it is anything. Lots of conditioning factors, lots of confounders, lots of terrible consequences if caught unprepared.

I know at an intellectual level that EVERY year could produce a lethal stain of influenza that might devistate the planet. But having lived more than half a century I also know that that doesn't happen every year.

I also know that epidemiologists always err on the side of declaring the alarm rather than keeping quiet.

Consequently, I wash my hands. A lot. And I hope that some nasty combination of viral genomics doesn't come to call on my household.

[pandemic_1918]

24. 1 Billion Deaths

The numbers WHO are using are VERY conservative. The case fatality rate is 70-80%

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

so applying that to the billions of H5N1 infections translates into over 1 billion deaths

http://www.recombinomics.com/pandemic_potential.html

[pandemic_1918]

28. Pandemic Flu a Left Wing Plot?

Freepers think pandemic flu is a left wing plot. Read the posts at www.freerepublic.com

(just search message boards for flu or H5N1)

[Ian David]

30. Then the freepers don't need flu shots