STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY 29 NOVEMBER

[ozymandius]

Monday November 29, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 52 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 353 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 42 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1103
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 26, 2004

Dow... 10,522.23 +1.92 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq... 2,101.97 -0.57 (-0.03%)
S&P 500... 1,182.65 +0.89 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.24% +0.05 (+1.07%)
Gold future... 452.80 +1.30 (+0.29%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. Last week's news looks to be relevant today.

Durable-Goods Orders Decline in October

WASHINGTON - America's factories saw orders for big-ticket goods drop in October after brisk activity the previous month, highlighting the sometimes bumpy recovery of the nation's manufacturers.

The Commerce Department (news - web sites) reported Wednesday that orders for durable goods — costly manufactured products expected to last at least three years — decreased by 0.4 percent in October from September.

Factory activity was weighed down last month by weakness in new bookings placed for automobiles, computers, electrical equipment and primary metals, which includes steel. more...

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Treasuries Lower on China U.S. Debt Report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasury prices sank on Friday as reports the Chinese authorities might be shedding some of their U.S. debt holdings sparked fears of broader selling from Asian central banks.

But traders said thin volume was exaggerating the extent of market action, and argued that offshore central banks were still showing plenty of interest in U.S. government debt.

"They still need to buy, that's all there is to it," said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer. "That doesn't mean rates aren't going higher, they are. I think the writing is on the wall but it's not going to be a straight down type of market."

The trouble started when the China Business News quoted a member of the Chinese central bank's monetary policy committee as saying the country had trimmed its holdings of Treasuries in foreign exchange reserves to $180 billion, trying to minimize losses from a falling dollar.

more...

---

Two reports show strength in Black Friday sales, but Wal-Mart's results are disappointing.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Two reports issued Saturday indicate that shoppers are out in force this holiday weekend, spending an estimated $8 billion on Black Friday, although the nation's No. 1 retailer isn't seeing as much traffic as it thought it would.

Visa, the No. 1 issuer of credit cards, said sales rung up on its cards Black Friday -- so called because it's when retailers are said to finally move out of the red, representing losses, and into the black, symbolizing profits -- rose 15.5 percent from last year to a record $4.1 billion.

-cut-

But the cloud in the bright picture came from Wal-Mart (Research), which lowered its sales estimates for November after seeing customer traffic decline toward the end of the week that ended Friday. The company said it now expects to report a 0.7 percent increase in November same-store sales, less than the 2 to 4 percent gain it has been projecting for most of this month (click here for more details).

[spotbird]

11. Factory orders down with a very weak dollar.

It looks like the dollar will have to drop to .50 against the euro before they'll buy our stuff.

[trogdor]

53. What stuff?

We don't make anything anymore, haven't you heard?

[54anickel]

2. Good morning Ozy! Another great toon today. And might, aren't those

futures looking bright and shiny again?

Stocks to Open Higher After Holiday Lull
Monday November 29, 6:38 am ET
Stocks Are Set to Open Higher As Investors Return From Holiday With High Retail Sales Hopes

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041129/wall_street_2.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stock futures were climbing early Monday as investors return to the market after the Thanksgiving lull with generally high hopes for strong retail sales in the holiday season.
Dow Jones futures climbed 70 points recently, while Nasdaq futures were up 14.5 points and S&P futures rose 8.10 points.

In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.8 percent to 4779.8 following better-than-expected November consumer confidence figures for the U.K. "which is slightly surprising given the weakness of housing market," said Investec's Philip Shaw.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Index ended up 1.3 percent at 10977.89 amid a recovery in U.S. dollar verses the yen.

In U.S. corporate news, retail tracking firm ShopperTrak of Chicago estimated retail sales for Friday, the highly touted holiday sales kickoff following Thanksgiving, rose 10.8 percent over last year to hit $8 billion. But retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. slashed its prediction for November sales growth, citing disappointing holiday sales at its stores. Wal-Mart predicted that November same-store sales in the U.S. would grow by only 0.7 percent over a year ago, far less than the 2 percent to 4 percent rise the retailer had expected. J.C. Penney Co. and Sears Roebuck & Co. also remained cautious about overall holiday sales, despite dazzling customer turnout.

snip>

No economic data is expected on Monday

[ozymandius]

10. Good morning 54anickel and all.

Those futures do look dazzling. The heroes of the day look to be Apple, for one.

I will be in and out today. Son and I are planning a trip to the zoo. (A membership is worth its weight in $450/oz. gold.) So I'll hang around as time allows.

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.04 Change +0.26 (+0.32%)

Poole: Inflation effect from dollar drop limited

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/29/content_2271375.htm

BEIJING, Nov. 29 (Xinhuanet) -- The decline of the dollar and the increase in oil prices haven't caused a "significant change" in the US inflation outlook, says St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole.

While increasing crude prices and the depreciation of the US currency are "per se inflationary impulses, there are other things going on in the other direction," Poole said in Prague on Saturday. "I don't believe that the impulses that we have seen to date produce any significant change in the inflation outlook."

The US currency has dropped against the euro for seven weeks, its longest losing streak in 10 months. Fed officials including Chairman Alan Greenspan in recent weeks said they're concerned foreign investors may cut holdings of dollar-denominated assets because of the record United States' current-account deficit, China Daily reported Monday.

Poole is a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which on November 10 said inflation was expected to be "relatively low."

<snip>

Poole said the effect of the dollar's depreciation on the United States' inflation rate "isn't enormous" because the "international sector of the US economy is smaller than it is for European countries.

...more...

A payoff in layoffs?
Downsizing, higher share prices seem to go hand-in-hand

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/nov04/279324.asp

Growing up in the factory town of Linden, N.J., in the '50s and '60s, Henry Farber saw how plant layoffs could devastate entire communities. Which is why he was bewildered in the '90s, when he'd hear financial analysts on the nightly news explaining that a company's stock surged on reports of job cuts.
Layoffs, Stock Shares Linked

"Corporate Killers," screamed the cover of Newsweek in February 1996: "Wall Street Loves Layoffs."

Farber, a professor of economics at Princeton University, sensed that something was out of whack. Collaborating with Kevin Hallock, a University of Illinois economist, Farber has spent the last several years studying what he and Hallock have found to be a gradual warming toward news of employment cuts.

"On average, the share-price reaction to job-loss announcements has gotten less negative over time," Hallock said when he presented the findings recently at a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

<snip>

Michael Moskow, president and chief executive officer of the Chicago Fed, noted that from 2001 to 2003, 5.3 million Americans lost jobs that they had held for three or more years. Such displaced workers had made major investments in their jobs, he said, and many had developed skills and knowledge very specific to their employers.

Their extended unemployment and tendency to find work again only at lower wages represent losses to the broader economy, Moskow said.

...more...

Pulling the plug on U.S. debt

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/28/bloomberg/sxpesek.html

In real estate, it's location, location, location. With markets, it's timing, timing, timing. Asian central banks should consider this most basic of credos and sell some of their massive holdings in U.S. Treasuries.

The reason: Now may be as good a time as any for this region's monetary authorities to avoid losses ahead of a possible surge in U.S. debt yields.

The U.S. economy is experiencing a mix of employment growth, solid retail sales, a sliding currency and record oil prices at a time of accelerating inflation. That is the kind of combination that disconcerts bond investors, and it seems only a matter of time before U.S. yields skyrocket.

Asia's central banks would suffer big losses if that happened. The combined U.S. Treasury holdings of China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand come to $1.1 trillion. Every increase in U.S. yields, no matter how mild, is costing money that comes out of the coffers of Asia's central banks. Why not reduce that risk now?

Leaders here have a perfect opportunity to plot an escape from U.S. bonds during the next few days as they gather in Vientiane, Laos. Leaders of China, Japan and South Korea, all major U.S. Treasuries buyers, also will attend this year's summit meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Of course, it would be even better to see central banks go further. Asia's fixation with weak currencies to stimulate growth has led to an unhealthy addiction to dollar-denominated debt. Asia should put that money to productive use here instead of helping to finance record U.S. deficits.

...more...

and this one for the humor value:

Three Ways to Judge the Dollar

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/28/business/yourmoney/28mark.html

HOW bad has the dollar's decline been?

The shorthand these days is to say that the dollar has fallen 37 percent against the euro since the dollar's peak against that currency in July 2001.

But another way to calculate the decline is from the values of the euro and the dollar on the day the euro made its debut, Jan. 1, 1999. At the time, the euro was worth $1.1667, and many analysts expected it to strengthen and the dollar to weaken.

Since then, the dollar's decline of 12.2 percent is significant, but not severe. From that perspective, the weakness of the dollar may be overstated.

Then there's the Japanese yen. From the dollar's high against the euro in July 2001 until Friday, the dollar had fallen just 18.4 percent against the yen, half its decline versus the euro. The Bank of Japan has spent 35.3 trillion yen, about $34.4 billion at current exchange rates, to prop up the dollar and keep the yen from falling further.

The Japanese have reported no currency intervention since March. That suggests that the dollar could decline more against the yen than against the euro in coming months, to catch up with its fall against the euro. But analysts are betting that the Bank of Japan may be in the market again soon, slowing the dollar's fall.

...more...

Great 'toon, Ozy!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

8. Whoa, I can really relate to that second article - perhaps because

Ron Larson and I are in basically the same job market.

snip>

Michael Moskow, president and chief executive officer of the Chicago Fed, noted that from 2001 to 2003, 5.3 million Americans lost jobs that they had held for three or more years. Such displaced workers had made major investments in their jobs, he said, and many had developed skills and knowledge very specific to their employers.

Their extended unemployment and tendency to find work again only at lower wages represent losses to the broader economy, Moskow said.

snip>

But Larson has abandoned hope of finding another steady job in information technology after nearly four years of searching. He had almost a decade in the field until - like the factory jobs he had previously held - he saw the work moving abroad.

"It's not about who's the best or who's the smartest," Larson said. "From the working man's standpoint, it's more about who can work the cheapest."

Yep, I invested heavily in obtaining the skills required for my engineering position. The jobs out there in a similar field aren't paying 1/2 of what I was making, and would prefer to fill the positions with recent grads that will work for much less. At first, I was willing to take the paycuts just to get a job. Then I started remembering the extremely long hours, stress, educational and wardrobe demands that my previous career placed on me. At 1/2 the pay or even less, it just wasn't worth it.

Consulting and Shrub's self-employed economy have taken off in this area. It comes down to taking temporary, odd jobs in your area of expertise. Sometimes for cash, other times for barter. Not exactly greasing the economic wheels that way though, are they? Meanwhile, this underground economy is hurting those small businesses running by the book.

Of course, I am not partaking in this new market for cash and barter - why that would be illegal, wouldn't it?

[ozymandius]

14. Second article: people do what they need to survive.

By bringing up the notion of survival - it is a warped situation in which we collectively find ourselves that people who have developed high skills must trade in a way that only meets current needs. There is nothing for the future.

This represents a reversal of fortune for the whole country when we cannot even take care of those who have strived to better their skillstes either by dedication to a job or by immersing themselves in higher education.

[mhr]

16. Unemployed 54 Months - I Can Relate Entirely

eom

[54anickel]

30. Sad state of affairs, isn't it, MHR? Rather ironic in a way...

I used to have a "cleaning lady" - now I'm actually pondering the notion of becoming one. It's a respectable trade; I have several relatives and friends that have done it for years to put their kids or themselves through college. I did it many years ago with my ex-MiL, that experience may now pay off better than my many years of education.

[mhr]

36. I Am Beyond Perplexed And Really Have Few Options

It is as if the "World" no longer has a need for applied intellect.

Probably like yourself, my talents best fit the technical arena. Yet there are few places to use those talents. Regrettably, we are not all parts replaceable.

I am also studying options that I would never have considered before.

Very sad situation.

[UpInArms]

4. Shooting stars’ littered across US dollar daily charts

http://www.dailyfx.com/article_daily_technicals_112904.html

EUR/USD - The pair closed out last week’s session making fresh all time highs (1.3330); however, studies of the daily scope indicate a near-term top may have been established. A clear shooting star was subsequently developed by major Interbank participant’s suspected shenanigans during the holiday impaired segment of the trading session. The indication is notable given the lack of reversal signals during the rally above the former all time high (1.2935) in November. Also, the pattern comes in at a key resistance level created by the regression channel line (4/10), monthly pivot R2 and projections using the pre-breakout range. see chart - .pdf only

Key levels: Going forward, key resistance has been pegged at the new all time high - and a test is likely given the ferocity of the move to this echelon - 1.3300/05 appears to be critical thereafter. On the support side, the confluence of the regression centerline and key Fibo at 1.3235/45 could stymie the offer. Following that, we have the lower band and 61.8 offering a foundation at 1.3180/90. As we noted on Wednesday, “…Be cautioned of covert intervention by the BoJ on behalf of the MoF during the American holiday impaired trading session…” and appears some sort of manipulation took place given the wild price action, though no “official” confirmation has disseminated. Nevertheless, we feel this is likely the beginning of a new intervention phase by the MoF.

USD/JPY - Creating a similar diametric indication to that of EUR. JPY seems to have been rocked by some peculiar activity at the close of last week’s trading session. The pair has since traded under the influence of a solid bid throughout the Asia and London trading sessions’ thus supporting the deduction. As we noted Wednesday, “…Presently, the same indication that encouraged us to infer a continuation of the trend was imminent has provided a contrary indication of a self-similar “oversold” indication across various studies and time frames…” and it appears the technical conclusions drawn were deadly accurate. Notwithstanding, it should be properly noted that the specter of MoF ordered intervention still looms ominously over this market. Historically speaking, it is very unlikely that this is a lone act by Japanese authorities.

Key levels: Going forward, Friday’s lows should provide support near the 102.00/20 region since the price failed to trade through this historically significant low. Though the bounce off the region we noted Wednesday (102.00) was not as fierce as we expected, a 150-pip move did ensue. On the resistance side, last week’s spike highs (103.35/50) may slow the progress of any trend retracement with 104.35/50 thereafter, as it coincides with the 23.6% of 111.60-102.15.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. Expectations remain set for a higher open, with optimism surrounding early holiday sales, solid gains in overseas markets, and the lack of terrorism during the holiday contributing to the bullish bias....Separately, AAPL will be a stock on the move today as no fewer than three firms have raised EPS estimates and/or price targets for the company

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.5. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the cash market as upbeat sentiment in futures market remains intact... Strength overseas has also contributed to this morning's bullish bias... the Nikkei closed up 1.3% as the U.S. dollar recovered some ground against the yen while the FTSE is higher on better-than-anticipated November consumer confidence data.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.0. Futures market holding fairly steady this morning in positive territory, which is setting the stage for a higher open for the cash market... Reports have indicated that Thanksgiving weekend retail sales came in stronger than expected, despite a warning from Wal-Mart (WMT), which slashed its prediction for November sales growth to 0.7% from 2-4%... No economic data is expected this morning.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and is working on a possible key reversal up as it extends this fall's rally. Despite overnight strength, the daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) remains neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1578.80 then last Monday's low crossing at 1547 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 6.50 pts. at 1584 as of 5:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight and posted a new contract high. If this fall's rally continues, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. However, the daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned neutral signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1172.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was up 8.20 pts. at 1189 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

6. Dollar Rests After Sharp Losses

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6941770

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar held above last week's record low against the euro and 4-1/2 year lows against the yen Monday, winning some respite after 10 consecutive weeks of losses.

Signs that China is in no rush to let its pegged currency appreciate against the dollar gave some support to the greenback which has shed nearly nine percent against the euro and the yen in the last two months.

Speaking Sunday, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao played down the likelihood of a near-term yuan revaluation and questioned why the United States had taken no action to stem the dollar's fall.

In Europe, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet renewed warnings against a stronger euro, saying the currency's recent movements were not welcome.

However, analysts said the dollar's gains Monday were only a pause in its long-term downtrend and had been driven mainly by technical factors.

"We set a new high (in euro/dollar) Friday and the market is a bit exhausted and overdone," said Peter Fontaine, currency strategist at KBC in Brussels.

"But everybody is still very negative on the dollar."

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Report: China Banks to Get Dollar Dealings

http://www.forbes.com/business/healthcare/feeds/ap/2004/11/29/ap1677758.html

Regulators may let China's four biggest state banks become market makers in U.S. dollar trading, paving the way for less currency intervention by the central bank, a state-run newspaper reported Monday.

A market maker agrees to act as either a buyer or seller in a financial transaction when no other party can be found. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, is now China's key market maker in U.S. dollar trading due to tight restrictions on foreign exchange dealings.

Draft measures for expanding the number of market makers for U.S. dollar trading have been completed, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange - China's top foreign exchange regulator - will decide when to announce them, the China Business Post reported.

China's four biggest banks - Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of China - would be the first market makers to be approved, the report said, citing unnamed sources.

<snip>

The plunge in the U.S. dollar's value against many key currencies has obliged China's central bank to boost dollar buying to keep the value of the yuan steady. That, coupled with strong foreign direct investment and exports, had by late September boosted foreign exchange reserves to almost US$515 billion (euro396 billion).

...more...

[54anickel]

24. Pilloried on the street, mighty greenback now China's 'money to burn'

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20041124/IBCHINA24/TPBusiness/?query=greenback

BEIJING -- In Chinese street slang, they are known as the "yellow bulls" -- the underground traders who lurk outside the banks in aggressive pursuit of currency deals. But despite their business zeal, there is one commodity they are unwilling to buy on the street these days: U.S. dollars.

"Everyone is converting their dollars to Chinese yuan," one black-market trader confided as he stood outside a bank in Beijing yesterday.

"Our business is getting more and more difficult," he said. "It's hard to find anyone buying U.S. dollars any more. The value of the yuan is definitely going to increase."

These are anxious days for China's legions of canny traders and savers. Not long ago, they had faith in the American dollar as the safest of safe havens -- a guaranteed stable investment. For years, China had survived financial crises by pegging its currency to the U.S. dollar.

snip>

"Nobody with a U.S.-dollar account can sit quietly at home any longer," said one man in a queue at a Bank of China branch yesterday. "The black market is a sign of the market trends. The government might say that it won't change the official exchange rate today, but tomorrow it could announce a change."

more...

[UpInArms]

9. Snow reportedly won't keep post

White House doesn't want Treasury chief to stay on

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA6C20894%2D0F59%2D405E%2D8AF0%2D720864129087%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- President Bush is dissatisfied with his economic team and is moving more quickly than previously thought to find a replacement for Treasury Secretary John Snow, according to a published report.

Snow may only be allowed to stay on for six more months, according to the Monday report in the Washington Post.

Outside observers had thought that Snow had secured his place in the second-term economic team through his relentless campaigning for Bush's reelection, but the Post said that White House officials don't want Snow to stay very long.

White House chief of Staff Andrew Card and New York Gov. George Pataki are listed as possible replacements for the Treasury post.

Commerce Secretary Don Evans and senior White House economic advisor Stephen Friedman have already announced their resignations. N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, also is expected to depart.

...a bit more...

[54anickel]

18. Keeping Politics Out of the Fed

So, :wtf: is this all about? I must plead ignorance on Mr. Saxton - I don't know where he's coming from. Is he catering to some lobbyists from the financial sector?

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/28/business/yourmoney/28view.html?oref=login

THE Fed's decision today was widely anticipated, and I hope the economic effects of the tightening of monetary policy are fully examined before moving much further in this direction."

That statement, made after the Federal Reserve's decision to raise short-term interest rates on Nov. 10, would not seem unusual coming from a Wall Street economist or a chief executive. It came, however, from Representative Jim Saxton, the vice chairman of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee and thus the top member of the House involved with economic affairs.

It was not the first time that Mr. Saxton, a New Jersey Republican, gave the Fed a piece of his mind. On Sept. 21, he had this to say after the Fed raised the target for the federal funds rate to 1.75 percent: "Leading market price indicators of inflation are well under control, and so long as this is the case there is no pressing need for further Fed action in the near future."

The congressman, of course, is entitled to his opinions. Yet to some economists, he was crossing a bright and cherished line that separates monetary policy from the politicians who control fiscal policy.

snip>

Turnabout is fair play, and the congressman brings up an interesting point. Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Fed, has regularly offered fiscal policy advice to Congress at his twice-a-year testimonies. In 2001, he gave an implicit O.K. to the Bush administration's first big tax cut, though lately he has been calling for reduction of the federal deficit and changes in Social Security. Members of both houses, hanging on his every word, often ask him leading questions in hopes of gaining endorsements for their pet policies.

more...

[UpInArms]

19. Bush 'appreciates' Snow's work: White House

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38320.4357934259-828189672&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- President Bush "appreciates" Treasury Secretary John Snow's work as the administration's chief economic spokesman, said Scott McClellan, White House spokesman. "He appreciates the job Secretary Snow is doing to help implement the economic agenda the president has pursued," McClellan said Monday, after the Washington Post reported that Snow may remain in the Cabinet for only a brief period in Bush's second term. Bush is scheduled to name a replacement for Commerce Secretary Don Evans at 11:05 a.m. Eastern.

:puke:

[susu369]

I got a big chuckle out of this, UIA

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6604667

President Bush plans to overhaul his economic team for the second time in two years and wants to tap prominent figures outside the administration to help sell rewrites of Social Security and the tax laws to Congress and the country, White House aides and advisers said over the weekend.

-snip-

Republican officials said Bush's economic team has been weaker than his national security advisers, and that the president believes he needs aides who can relate better to Congress and be more effective in dealing with financial markets and television interviewers. A more skilled team is essential, the aides said, because of the complex and politically challenging agenda of overhauling Social Security to add private investment accounts and simplifying the tax code.

"The president knows that he doesn't have the strength in that stable, and he's going to another corral to find it," said a member of Bush's political team who asked not to be identified because it is not his job to talk to reporters.

--

haha - guess they are telling us the national security advisers are top knotch....

[UpInArms]

41. good grief, why doesn't he

just hire Hill & Knowlton and quit with the hand-wringing tripe that falls from the lips of these state-run media channels?

http://www.prwatch.org/books/tsigfy10.html

[UpInArms]

57. adding some info from link (regarding Hill & Knowlton)

Hill & Knowlton, then the world's largest PR firm, served as mastermind for the Kuwaiti campaign. Its activities alone would have constituted the largest foreign-funded campaign ever aimed at manipulating American public opinion. By law, the Foreign Agents Registration Act should have exposed this propaganda campaign to the American people, but the Justice Department chose not to enforce it. Nine days after Saddam's army marched into Kuwait, the Emir's government agreed to fund a contract under which Hill & Knowlton would represent "Citizens for a Free Kuwait," a classic PR front group designed to hide the real role of the Kuwaiti government and its collusion with the Bush administration. Over the next six months, the Kuwaiti government channeled $11.9 million dollars to Citizens for a Free Kuwait, whose only other funding totalled $17,861 from 78 individuals. Virtually all of CFK's budget - $10.8 million - went to Hill & Knowlton in the form of fees.74

The man running Hill & Knowlton's Washington office was Craig Fuller, one of Bush's closest friends and inside political advisors. The news media never bothered to examine Fuller's role until after the war had ended, but if America's editors had read the PR trade press, they might have noticed this announcement, published in O'Dwyer's PR Services before the fighting began: "Craig L. Fuller, chief of staff to Bush when he was vice-president, has been on the Kuwaiti account at Hill & Knowlton since the first day. He and Dilenschneider at one point made a trip to Saudi Arabia, observing the production of some 20 videotapes, among other chores. The Wirthlin Group, research arm of H&K, was the pollster for the Reagan Administration. . . . Wirthlin has reported receiving $1.1 million in fees for research assignments for the Kuwaitis. Robert K. Gray, Chairman of H&K/USA based in Washington, DC had leading roles in both Reagan campaigns. He has been involved in foreign nation accounts for many years. . . . Lauri J. Fitz-Pegado, account supervisor on the Kuwait account, is a former Foreign Service Officer at the US Information Agency who joined Gray when he set up his firm in 1982."75

[hatrack]

50. This paragraph pretty much said it all

"Outside observers had thought that Snow had secured his place in the second-term economic team through his relentless campaigning for Bush's reelection, but the Post said that White House officials don't want Snow to stay very long."

Yeah, you don't have to be any good at your job to secure your place - you just have to campaign a lot. Then again, maybe that's not the case for Snowjob.

[UpInArms]

12. 9:50 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,553.78 +31.55 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,115.26 +13.29 (+0.63%)
S&P 500 1,186.11 +3.46 (+0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.308% +0.068

NYSE Volume 114,773,000
Nasdaq Volume 218,916,000

9:40AM: Stocks are trading higher at the open as investors note what was a healthy start to the holiday shopping season... Not all retailers, though, reported strong figures as Wal-Mart (WMT 53.64 -1.68) said that same store sales for November are now expected to come in up only 0.7%, versus management's previous forecasts which called for growth of 2-4%, due to a decline in customer traffic... As such, Oppenheimer downgraded Wal-Mart to Neutral from Buy as the firm believes there could be more downside risk in WMT stock than it had anticipated, perhaps to below $51 over the short term...

9:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0.

[UpInArms]

13. Bonus time: deck Wall St with lots of lolly

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Bonus-time-deck-Wall-St-with-lots-of-lolly/2004/11/29/1101577419140.html?oneclick=true

The holiday season has arrived and with it the ultimate in year-end giving: bonus season on Wall Street.

Top executives of the leading financial firms are now spending hours each day huddled in boardrooms or trapped on endless conference calls, sparring among themselves to determine how big the bonus pool will be, how it will be divided among the divisions and, then, what each employee will receive.

The executives complain privately about the time that must be spent on compensating their highly paid professionals at the expense of calling on clients, recruiting talent or talking to shareholders.

"It is brain damage any way you cut it," said the chief executive of one firm, who spoke on the condition he not be identified because compensation is such a sensitive topic on Wall Street.

Nonetheless, the year-end bonus is an unquestioned tradition on Wall Street. Bonuses typically make up the majority of compensation for professional employees. In 2003 Lloyd Blankfein, the president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs, made $US20.1 million ($25.6 million); only $US600,000 of that was salary.

Similarly, Stanley O'Neal, the chief executive of Merrill Lynch, made $US500,000 in salary but received a bonus of $US13.5 million and restricted stock worth $US11.2 million more.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. here's another lay-off

Lastminute.com cannot rule out further job cuts

Lastminute.com Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Brent Hoberman, has suggested that the Internet travel company might have to add to the 350 job cuts it has already announced. (11/29/2004)

http://www.eyefortravel.com/index.asp?news=44222

Last week the company stated that is undertaking a number of initiatives to cut costs, including laying off about 350 staff, which is some 15% of its workforce. This figure however may be increased.

Speaking at the Abta Convention in Florida, Hoberman conveyed that he could not rule out further job losses.

"I do not think that any chief executive would rule out further cuts in their business," he commented.

Last week lastminute.com reported that while showing ongoing improvements in most areas, its financial performance had fallen short of expectations.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Gold futures top $450 an ounce in NY (first time since 7/88)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={F83A28CB-CB68-4337-93BF-7EDBC8433EF1}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures climbed above $450 an ounce Monday morning for the first time since July of 1988. December gold was last at $451.20, up $1.90. "It's going to be a very busy week with all the data due to be released," said Dale Doelling, chief market commentator at Bullion.com in Chicago. "Multiple closes above $450 will be needed to keep gold moving forward, but ... a dip back to the $438-$440 area would be healthy for the market at this juncture," he said. Mining shares, however, fell, giving back part of Friday's gains. The CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) was down 0.4 percent.

[UpInArms]

20. Supply deal boosts China Automotive

Stock soars as agreement reached with GM venture

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEAFD8F92%2D0A85%2D419E%2DB3BB%2D143830000FF1%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Shares of China Automotive Systems Inc. skyrocketed Monday after the company agreed to supply steering pumps for a General Motors Corp. joint venture.

The deal calls for Zhejiang Heglong & Vie Pump Co. to make the pumps for the Spark 1.0 vehicle, a product of SAIC GM Wuling Automotive Co. Ltd.

China Automotive (CAAS: news, chart, profile) owns 51 percent of Zhejiang Heglong & Vie Pump. Financial terms weren't disclosed.

The SAIC GM venture anticipates production of 10,000 of the vehicles in 2005.

U.S.-listed shares of China Automotive soared $6.74, or 89.9 percent, to $14.24. Recent volume of 2.9 million shares was well beyond the issue's daily average of 269,100.

China Automotive also said it was named to supply steering pumps on behalf of Dong Feng Liuzhou Motor Co. Ltd.'s MPV vehicle.

"These new supplier relationships underscore the company's successful strategy of leveraging its reputation and position within the China automotive market," said CEO Hanlin Chen in a statement. "We look forward to expanding our steering pump business and additional opportunities within the overall automotive market."

...more...

[54anickel]

21. Open Letter to the U.S. Dollar:

Last entry on the page again. Lots of interesting info on the way down (as usual).

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Dear Mr. Dollar:

I have for some time expounded your shortfalls and frailties. And now, with your soundness and future status having been elevated to the crucial issue in global markets and economics, it is appropriate that I address my heightened concerns to you directly. There are some critical issues that I want to ensure you are aware of. As much as I have criticized you in the past, I today fear for your future.

First of all, there is great confusion and misinformation as to who you really are and what role you play. Some believe – and many would like to perpetuate the myth - that you are the “currency” created and managed by the Federal Reserve. I think even you would admit that this is an expedient and false impression. Federal Reserve liabilities are but a small and shrinking portion of dollar-denominated claims, and the Fed has quite limited capacity to support you during episodes of faltering confidence and market tumult. The Fed’s previous effort to support you by increasing the attractiveness of U.S. securities is at this point a largely spent force. And while the consensus view holds that the Federal Reserve and Administration have advantageously used your devaluation as a policy tool – the Fed to “fight deflation” and the Bush team to buoy U.S. manufacturers and employment – it is more accurate to recognize that the actual policy mechanism has been to incite the (mindless) creation of additional dollar claims (Credit inflation), thereby stimulating expenditures and asset inflation (real estate, bonds and equities, in particular). The policy has been to perpetuate Bubbles, and only talk as if they were concerned about your strength and welfare. “Strong dollar” blather has similarly lost efficacy.

Many confuse you with dollar “bills” – Federal Reserve Notes - and Treasury debt. Others commonly mistake you for numerous Credit instruments issued by various types of institutions that can be used these days to consummate transactions in the real economy or financial markets. Some erroneously presume that scores of previous gross financial transgressions and policy derelictions – not to mention the consequent deep structural economic maladjustments and endemic inflated asset prices - will somehow be forgiven if only the federal budget is balanced. If it were only that easy, Mr. Dollar. I wish it were true.

Many refer to you as “fiat,” insinuating that you are authorized or sanctioned by the U.S. government. This is inaccurate. The Fed enjoys no dollar “monopoly power,” while Secretary Snow and the Department of the Treasury today possess virtually no power. The issuance of dollar debt is open to virtually all, while the size and nature of the dollar trading market – dominated today by derivative trading, “hot money” speculative flows, and foreign central banks - is massive and unlike anything in history.

There were long periods when you were backed by gold and other precious metals. This provided inherent value for dollar instruments, as well as an effective mechanism to restrict over-issuance. And there were also decades when the Federal Reserve and government authorities thoughtfully regulated the creation of additional dollar financial claims. Indeed, closely-regulated commercial banks were the chief non-federal government entities sanctioned with the capacity to create new dollar-denominated purchasing power. In such a circumstance, the terminology “fiat currency” was generally applicable. But today, in a Fancy-Free Marketable Securities-Based Financial New World Order - with myriad institutions creating liquid dollar-denominated liabilities, and securities playing such an instrumental role in the global system’s payments settlement mechanism - the term “Global Wildcat Finance” is much more legitimate than “fiat currencies.”

more...

[UpInArms]

22. Treasuries Slide on Speculative Selling

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6942597

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices tumbled on Monday as a sudden wave of speculative selling swamped major chart levels, triggering added technical sales.

Traders reported particularly heavy selling of the 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) from leveraged funds, sending it down 25/32 in price. Its yield jumped to 4.34 percent from 4.24 percent late Friday, breaking above the 4.28/4.30 percent barrier for the first time since early August.

"The market started steady enough, but then a wave of selling came through the futures pit and swept prices lower," said one trader at a primary dealer. "Doesn't seem to be any news behind it, rather a leveraged speculator trying to ambush a sleepy market and break 4.28 (percent)," he said.

Analysts noted 4.28 percent had been the ceiling for yields for the last three months and the break opened the way for a retracement to at least 4.41 percent.

...more...

[IMayBeWrongBut]

34. Gotta love that "speculative selling"

Is that sorta like the opposite of "panic buying"....?

[JNelson6563]

23. What happened to the party?

When I saw DOW futures up some 80 pts. early this AM I thought we were in for a Big Day. I caught markets soon after open and DOW was up some 30 pts. and now I see nail-marks leading to the edge of a cliff....Looking over toward the gold camp though things look much different.

Looks more like a party. :party:

10:51 and here's a snapshot:

Dow 10,513.59 -8.64 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,109.47 +7.50 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,182.50 -0.15 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.321% +0.081

Big moving in Treasuries, some bruising.

Julie

[54anickel]

26. Yes, another moment of rising rates and gold at the same time - an

ominous sign. It has been happening with greater frequency lately.

[JNelson6563]

32. But the cheerleaders tell me Everything's great!

Counter-intutitive to what my lyin' eyes say to me. ;-)

Julie

[UpInArms]

25. Carlos Gutierrez?

10:54am 11/29/04 BUSH PICKS CARLOS GUTIERREZ TO BE COMMERCE SECRETARY-AP

[UpInArms]

27. Kellogg CEO

http://www.hispaniconline.com/magazine/2004/jan_feb/CoverStory/

excerpt:

Gutiérrez’s attainment of a Super Deluxe American Dream is not a rags-to-riches story. As Gutiérrez himself notes, his family was part of Havana’s high society. The family lived in the upscale suburb of Miramar, in spacious homes with vast yards that were shaded by mango and banana trees.

While many Cubans speak of coming to the United States with little more than pocket change and the clothes on their back, Pedro and Olga Gutiérrez and their two sons were able to leave with $2,000 and 22 suitcases in 1960. They arrived in Florida, and settled in Key Biscayne, just minutes from Miami, when the landscape was blanketed by people walking among the mangrove roots in flipflops and shorts.
“Key Biscayne and Miami Beach were beachy; there weren’t all the buildings that there are now,” says Gutiérrez’s older brother, Pablo.

For a while, Gutiérrez recalls, his parents, like so many Cuban exiles, believed their stay in the United States would just be temporary.

“It felt to me like we were on a holiday, a vacation,” Gutiérrez says. “We thought things would change in Cuba and we could return.”

Eventually, like other Cubans, Pedro Gutiérrez realized he was in the United States for the long haul. He moved his family around the country, and to Mexico, following job opportunities.

...lots more...

[UpInArms]

28. 54anickel, I have a question for you

What's a "Cash Management Bill"?

11:02am 11/29/04 U.S. TO SELL $4 BLN. 14-DAY CASH MANAGEMENT BILL TUES

[54anickel]

37. Ewww, I'm guessing they are running a bit short on cash to payout

coupons coming due, or possibly :tinfoilhat: debts being called. :shrug: Sounds sort of like a reverse repo...

The official definition:
http://www.trading-glossary.com/c0110.asp
Very short-maturity bills that the Treasury occasionally sells because its Cash balances are down and it needs Money for a few days.

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/tbills_glance.htm
Treasury bills are issued electronically, usually for a period of 13 or 26 weeks.
Two other bills, 4-week bills and cash management bills, can't be bought through an account with the U.S. Treasury. However, after buying a 4-week bill or cash management bill from a bank or broker, you can transfer the bill into an account with the U.S. Treasury.
The terms of cash management bills vary, but usually are only a matter of days. Unlike other Treasury bills, cash management bills aren't sold on a regular schedule.
Bills are issued at a discount. For example:
If you buy a $10,000 26-week Treasury bill for $9,750 and hold it until maturity, your interest will be $250.



How Canada has implemented them:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/notices_fmd/debt_04_05.htm

snip>
The government announced in its February 2003 Budget, and subsequently in the 2003/04 Debt Management Strategy document, a reduction of the target for the fixed-rate portion of the debt from two-thirds to 60 per cent. This target is planned to be reached over a five-year period. As a result, the outstanding stock of treasury bills is expected to grow to $120 billion by the end of 2003/04 and to continue to increase through to the end of 2007/08. As of 30 November 2003, the outstanding stock of treasury bills was $119 billion.

Cash-management bills (CMBs) complement treasury bills in the management of the government's cash balances. CMBs help minimize the level and cost-of-carrying cash balances.

Several initiatives were implemented this past summer, based on comments received during consultations with market participants held last December with respect to treasury bills and CMBs:

CMBs were used more frequently to help treasury managers better manage the government's balances on an ongoing basis, as well as around dates of large cash outflows such as coupon payments and bond maturities. During the summer, the government issued three short-dated (seven-day) non-fungible CMBs and made more intensive use of CMBs in the autumn.
The timing of treasury bill auctions was changed in order to encourage participation by a broader range of market participants.
The timing of cash-management bond-buyback (CMBB) operations was changed to reflect market participants' preferences for these operations to follow treasury bill auctions.

[54anickel]

46. Interesting look at when we did this in '91, when the $ went up in value

so CB interventionists were selling our Treasuries to bring up their currencies.

http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:X40PyJh2l_MJ:www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/historical-documents/reports-to-secretary/rpt-1991-q2.pdf+%22cash+management+bill%22&hl=en

snip>
Recessionary business conditions and substantial additional Federal Reserve monetary easing measures have been the primary economic factors setting the tone in the market since our meeting in January. Declining personal consumption spending and factory orders last quarter encouraged business firms to aggressively cut their production and shed workers. As a consequence, personal income has been virtually stagnant for the past six months. In response to this weak economic tone, Fed officials have lowered both the Federal funds rate and the discount rate. Not surprisingly, these fresh policy steps by the central bank have helped pull down discount yields on 3-month Treasury bills since late January, from 6.20 percent to 5.60 percent. Yields on longer-maturity Treasuries have not fallen by as much over the period, however; 3-year note yields have dipped only from 7.34 percent to 7.30 percent, while 30-year bond yields have been flat at about 8.25 percent. To a large degree, the relative stickiness of yields on long-term issues can be traced to improving assessments of U.S. economic prospects among financial market participants. Falling energy prices and heavy individual income tax refunds have bolstered consumers finances since mid-January, which encouraged consumers to increase their volume of purchases as confidence surged following the successful conclusion of the Gulf war. In addition, a more upbeat reading of the U.S. economic outlook triggered a sharp rise in the dollar against other G-7 currencies, and that in turn led to some liquidation of Treasury note holdings by foreign central banks and official institutions as part of their coordinated foreign exchange intervention activities. Over the ' period ahead, information and developments relating to the economy's health will undoubtedly remain the key factor in determining the direction of Treasury market yields. Should business activity stage an early recovery, as the Administration and many private analysts believe, then market yields would probably come under some moderate upward pressure from the unusually -high market financing needs that are expected for the balance of this fiscal year. With this perspective as background...

[UpInArms]

29. 11:14 est and WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?

Dow 10,456.39 -65.84 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 2,098.61 -3.36 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,176.88 -5.77 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.318% +0.078

NYSE Volume 428,949,000
Nasdaq Volume 663,761,000

[JNelson6563]

31. And still falling! 2 minutes later!

11:16

Dow 10,436.22 -86.01 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,095.19 -6.78 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,174.89 -7.76 (-0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.32% +0.08

Yikes!

Julie

[JNelson6563]

33. Slowing a bit now

Someone slam on the brakes? 11:20

Dow 10,444.94 -77.29 (-0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,096.80 -5.17 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,175.64 -7.01 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.316% +0.076

[UpInArms]

35. 10:27 and teetering on down

Dow 10,441.83 -80.40 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,096.31 -5.66 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,175.26 -7.39 (-0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 4.315% +0.075

NYSE Volume 483,508,000
Nasdaq Volume 729,254,000

[UpInArms]

38. 11:36 and needing that Ah-OOO-Gah horn

Dow 10,423.43 -98.80 (-0.94%)
Nasdaq 2,091.21 -10.76 (-0.51%)
S&P 500 1,172.90 -9.75 (-0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 4.311% +0.071

NYSE Volume 516,722,000
Nasdaq Volume 782,123,000

(edited for spulling)

[UpInArms]

40. adding some blather

11:30AM: Indices fall to new session lows as profit taking takes its toll... Recognition that there hasn't been any buying follow through on reports of a strong start to holiday selling season has invited a wave of renewed selling interest... Retailers, by and large, are on the weak side of things today, as evidenced by the 1.3% decline in the S&P Retailing Index...

Presumably, participants are treating the encouraging reports of the robust start to the holiday period as an opportunity to take profits, mindful that many of the retailers ran up on the expectation that the early returns would be deemed favorable...NYSE Adv/Dec 1333/1792, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1320/1583

[JNelson6563]

45. "Recognition that there hasn't been any buying...."

"....follow through on reports of a strong start to holiday selling season has invited a wave of renewed selling interest... "

Translation: People are cashing in their gift certificates to the Clue Store. ;-)

12:01 and barely off the lows:

Dow 10,429.05 -93.18 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,094.52 -7.45 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,173.98 -8.67 (-0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 4.314% +0.074
NYSE Volume 598,010,000
Nasdaq Volume 887,099,000

Julie

[54anickel]

39. China in talks to buy Husky

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20041126.wxhusky1126/BNStory/Business/

The Chinese government is in discussions to acquire Calgary-based oil and gas giant Husky Energy Inc. from Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, in the emerging Asian power's latest move to deepen its economic ties with resource-rich countries such as Canada.

Sources familiar with the talks said representatives from the Li family and China entered negotiations for what would be a multibillion-dollar takeover several weeks ago in Beijing and Hong Kong.

China is understood to be seeking to acquire full control of Husky through one of its state-owned energy companies, but it was unclear which agency might make the bid. State-controlled PetroChina Co. Ltd. discussed a possible acquisition of Husky with the Li family two years ago, but the talks foundered on price.

snip>

China has embarked on a global hunt to secure resources for its booming economy. Chinese state firms are already active in Sudan and Peru, and are scouting investment opportunities in other countries, including Ecuador, Chile, Australia and Venezuela.

more...

[UpInArms]

42. the moronic voters in Tennessee are no longer needed

11:51am 11/29/04 GEORGIA GULF TIPTONVILLE PLANT TO CLOSE IMMEDIATELY

11:51am 11/29/04 GEORGIA GULF TO CLOSE TIPTONVILLE, TENN. PLANT

[UpInArms]

43. adding Georgia Gulf data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38320.4977974769-828196466&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Georgia Gulf to close Tiptonville, Tenn. plant (GGC) By Heather Wilson
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Georgia Gulf Corp. (GGC) said Monday that it will close its Tiptonville, Tenn. compound plant immediately. The company said that customers will not be effected by the closure due to the "increased efficiencies" of its other facilities.

what is Georgia Gulf?

http://www.hoovers.com/georgia-gulf/--ID__10647--/free-co-factsheet.xhtml

Georgia Gulf Corporation (NYSE: GGC)

400 Perimeter Center Terrace, Ste. 595
Atlanta, GA 30346 (Map)

Phone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]

http://www.georgiagulf.com

Covered by Peter Partheymuller

It doesn't take an old sweet song to tell you what Georgia Gulf Corporation does. The company makes chlorovinyls and aromatics used by the construction and housing, plastics, fibers, pulp and paper, pharmaceutical, and consumer industries. Its primary chlorovinyl products are PVC (polyvinyl chloride) compounds and resins and caustic soda; this segment also makes vinyl chloride monomer, used by Georgia Gulf to manufacture PVC resins. Aromatics include phenol (sold to makers of engineered plastics), acetone (sold to makers of acrylic resins), and cumene (used by the company to make phenol and acetone). Approximately half of Georgia Gulf's sales are to the housing and construction market.

[ozymandius]

44. noontime report

11:59
Dow 10,433.93 -88.30 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq 2,094.70 -7.27 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,174.16 -8.49 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 4.308% +0.068
NYSE Volume 592,862,000
Nasdaq Volume 878,510,000

U.S. stocks lower; Wal-Mart, weak bond market weigh

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks turned sharply lower Monday morning as weakness in the bond market sparked by concern that U.S. interest rates may have to rise in order to stoke foreign investor appetite for U.S. assets weighed on sentiment.

"I think there's a lot of concerns about that and what that means and the fact that the bond market's acting the way it's acting I think is dragging down stocks, as well," said Stephen Massocca, president and head of trading at Pacific Growth Equities.

Wal-Mart's November sales warning, meanwhile, cast a pall on an otherwise solid start to the holiday shopping season.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041129/e4a875b4917d0dba0853b23d6e7ed6be_1.html

I have to leave. I hope you make the best of what looks to be a brutal day.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

47. Hope you enjoy the zoo, Ozy!

We will keep an eye on the other "zoo" for you :D

:hi:

[UpInArms]

48. Gulf Oil Cash Flows Back Into Region (away from the dollar)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=6943357

LONDON (Reuters) - Billions of dollars of Middle East oil money that would traditionally be sunk into U.S. Treasuries and other dollar assets is being put to work closer to home, exacerbating the problems of the struggling greenback.

Analysts say signs that very little of the $180 billion in bumper oil revenues that Gulf states are expected to reap this year will be used to buy dollar assets could hardly have come at a worse time for the United States.

The U.S. desperately needs foreign investors to fund its trade deficit, running at a record annual clip of $664 billion, just as global financial markets are speculating that the world's major central banks may cut their exposure to dollars and reweight the euro in the foreign exchange reserves.

"Of course it's a big deal ... we can see the evidence from a week-to-week basis, it is happening. More and more there is talks of such patterns," MG Financial Group's chief currency analyst Ashraf Laidi told Reuters.

"They are not going to sell all their dollar holdings but it is about diversification and that will hit the dollar further," he added.

...more...

Am I glimpsing the shark fins in the water? :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

52. UAE Hopes to Cash in on Outsourcing Rush

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6935951

DUBAI (Reuters) - After years of paying the price of petty corruption, unreliable infrastructure and laws that allow for high staff turnover, outsourcing firm Netlink is planning to buck a trend by moving from India to the United Arab Emirates.

Dubai, the UAE's trading center, is setting up the Dubai Outsourcing Zone (DOZ) in 2005 to lure businesses away from high-cost Western countries.

Luxury lifestyles, modern infrastructure, a multinational talent pool and low taxes all add to the UAE's luster compared to outsourcing kingpin India.

snip>

"The environment in Dubai is very competitive," he said. "Income is tax free which means we can save substantially on wages... but telecommunications costs are our main inhibitor."

In mid-2004, the UAE said it would end the monopoly of Etisalat, the majority state-owned telecommunications provider, paving the way for cheaper rates.

But the government did not set a timetable, or specify which services would be deregulated, which is likely to dim the prospects of the proposed Dubai Outsourcing Zone.

The state-owned zone will be tax free and offer foreign investors full ownership.

more...

[54anickel]

49. Too Much! (Bill Gross)

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2004/IO+December+2004.htm

John Snow and Allen Greenspan have finally bowed to the inevitable. Instead of blocking the lane in defense of a Shaq Attack slam dunk, they have politely if somewhat obfuscatingly stepped aside. “Put it down brother” they seem to be saying but it’s the dollar and not a round ball that they’re referring to. The dollar has gone down. The dollar is going down. The dollar will continue to go down because it’s the easiest way out (for the U.S.) to begin to rectify its imbalanced finance-based economy. Balance the budget? Fugitaboutit. Raise interest rates to historic norms? Fugitaboutthattoo. “Let the market decide,” Snow says. “Likewise,” chimes Greenspan, warning that sooner or later foreign lenders will not be so exuberant in their purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds. Perhaps they’ll be a little less irrational with their money he might have thought but that’s a word he doesn’t use anymore. And so the market’s most crowded trade-short the dollar – will inevitably become a little more crowded, perhaps irrational itself at some point. There is a whiff of crisis in the air.

How the world came to this point is well documented in some journals, including this one, but it bears repeating if only to reacquaint pre-Alzheimer candidates and those with “senior moments” such as myself with the facts. The U.S. spends too much; eats too much; drinks too much; TOO MUCH, (thank you Dave Matthews). And we pay for it with our debt and 80% of the world’s excess savings. In so doing our creepy crawly balance of payments deficit has inched its way up to 6% of GDP – a level never seen in the U.S. and reflective of third world nations in financial crisis. The imbalance has been tolerated by those nations on the surplus side of the ledger – read “Asia” – in a strange sort of mercantilistic Faustian bargain that promises China and Japan the benefits of a strengthening economy now for the perfidy of falling dollar denominated Treasuries bonds later, an arrangement that once again will prove that there is no free lunch, or that hell often follows heaven on Earth.

There are those that argue that this tidy little bargain between debtor and creditor nations can go on for a long long time. Since each party gets what they want – The U.S. to consume, and Asia to produce – who’s to say when the first player will opt out? For now, China’s rather introverted geopolitik allows them the flexibility to revalue their Yuan whenever they damn well please as long as their inflation rate behaves. Japan is beholden to the U.S. militarily and continues to struggle with deflationary pressures. That argues for at least jawboning its Yen lower. “Dirty float” is and likely will remain synonymous with Japanese forex policy. So there seems no immediate incentive for either China or Japan to opt out of their Faustian bargain. On the debtor side, the U.S. will shop ‘til it drops – pure and simple but that phrase up until now has always accentuated the “shop” and conveniently forgotten about the “drop.” The drop comes when this comfy cozy current relationship between giver/taker, consumer/maker for some reason ends in divorce. The only question is one of timing. At some point, as Greenspan so astutely pointed out, “foreign lenders will eventually resist lending more money to the United States, causing the dollar to drop further.” What he didn’t say is that that will be the point when the shopping stops and the fun goes out of a trip to the mall. That’s the point when U.S. inflation heads gradually but inevitably higher, and that’s the point, of course when interest rates move into harm’s way.

If it seems strange that Treasury Secretary Snow and Fed Chairman Greenspan are actually encouraging this weak dollar policy one can rationalize that they’ve seen the end game and they want to ease their way around the pileup. Better to talk the dollar down now before the balance of payments gets so bad that a true crisis is inevitable. I cannot disagree. And as mentioned in my opening paragraph, alternative solutions to the problem are “pie in the sky” unimaginable. For Americans voluntarily to begin to get the old time religion of saving more money is beyond dreaming, especially with employment so weak and the source of historic capital gains – stocks and houses – still above cost. Likewise a Bush Administration seems unlikely to move towards a more balanced budget with its aggressive legislative agenda which includes social security reform. Optimists tout the escape route of faster foreign growth to suck up American exports but Europe has caught a congenital case of influenza, Japan is back to the zero growth line and China is maneuvering for a soft landing.

more...

[UpInArms]

51. Gold at 26 year high - Dollar at 25 year low

Gold prices gain more ground in afternoon trade

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38320.5226633565-828199388&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- December gold is up $4.10 at $453.40 an ounce in afternoon trade and holding at the highest levels since mid-1988. "The fact that the dollar is within striking distance of 25-year lows, does not help in the outlook for the trade balance and will increase the deficit," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Services. So "the fact is a weaker dollar will help support gold, but with the exaggerated move made already in the euro ... gold will be near a short-term top," he said. Mining indexes were little changed, ignoring the strength among most metals futures. The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is up 0.1 percent.

[54anickel]

54. Karl Marx & Greenspan Over Coffee (Jim Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie112904.html

Last month a unique opportunity was bestowed upon me to moderate and record a conversation between the venerable Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and the immortal ideological leader of the Russian Bolshevik revolution Karl Marx. The meeting was arranged by a man from the fractured Yugoslavia, who has been harboring Karl all this time. The meeting took place in a quiet bistro in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, the location of the great flood decades ago. One should note the parallel to the deluge besetting the US Economy. While waiting for my guests, time was passed by reading the classic book "When Complex Systems Fail" which is not exactly light reading, but certainly appropriate.

Jim Willie: welcome, Karl... you look well. The years have been kind to you. Perhaps a pony tail could bring some order to the hair? Looking good, sir. Tell us about your new book. The last one helped to build an intellectual basis to the Soviet Union. This one, "Das Monetarizm" is sure to ruffle some feathers. It focuses on enslavement of the masses from debt accumulation.

Karl Marx: thank you... pleasure to sit with you and this charlatan. Can I say that? Yes, yes, my diet of yogurt, borscht, and vodka has kept me young. Man can hide on Albanian coast for 70 years with nobody wiser. Albania is beautiful, land that time forgot. Yes, yes, my new book, very excited, many parallels overlooked in my first book "Das Kapital." Original work covered enslavement of the working class through private property, control by the bourgeois aristocracy, and exploitation by corporations. New work covers debt, indictment of Western system. American proletariat in chains over debt, tragic, but inevitable. Debt will be death of capitalism. Rise of totalitarianism comes. However, and big however, Western financial leaders blame others, not themselves, when death happens. Greenspan is master. How you call, "escapegoat"?

JW: that is "scapegoat" and how true. Let's also welcome Alan... you look, well, like Mister Magoo. Sorry, could not resist. Rumors run rampant, Mr Chairman, that you are working secretly on a book to be entitled "Modern American Economic Mythology." Please confirm this story if you can.

Alan Greenspan: thank you... Magoo, yes, I hear that often, a veritable walking facsimile most assuredly. Conditions are promising for dissemination of fables and fact, fully intertwined in an environment of readily accepted constructs that justify ongoing ideological conditions. You will learn of any new book, if indeed its reality coincides with tangible publication developments, at a later date when public office is not in any daily regimen of responsibilities. For now, it will be the subject of your speculation and fancy. Be sure to know, that parallel endeavors will be pursued, so as to retain my reputation while in clandestine fashion developing the mythology I facilitated to promulgate. Prospect of a pseudonym has been broached, and it has merit, in that circumvented criticism might augment a deeper embrace of fabricated hypotheses.

more...

[JNelson6563]

55. This was well done

This writer is very fluent in these personas. :toast: Fun read.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

56. 1:00 update

Dow 10,436.29 -85.94 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,093.88 -8.09 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,174.61 -8.04 (-0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 4.337% +0.097

NYSE Volume 727,190,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,041,081,000

10 yr. yield up almost 10 basis pts. today. That's pretty substantial. Getting a little bloody even....

Julie

[UpInArms]

59. 1:24 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,457.20 -65.03 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,098.39 -3.58 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,176.54 -6.11 (-0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.328% +0.088

NYSE Volume 785,821,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,109,933,000

1:00PM: The major indices continue to trade with a tinge of caution ahead of this week's slew of economic data... Tomorrow, traders will have to digest a revision to the already reported Q3 GDP gain of 3.7% while a November nonfarm payrolls number of +200K is expected on Friday... Apprehension ahead of these reports, along with a still weak dollar, has translated into buying interest in gold futures (+0.89% to $455.50 per ounce) as a safe haven investment...NYSE Adv/Dec 1119/2129, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1352/1653

12:30PM: The market finds some modest support near its lowest levels of the day, but the overall negative tone remains intact... Decliners on the NYSE have maintained a more than 2 to 1 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq have outpaced advancing issues by a 16 to 12 margin... The latter index, which set a temporary new 10-month high at the open, has broken through a technical support level of 2102 and has most recently found some support near a secondary barrier at the 2095 level... NYSE Adv/Dec 1040/2190, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1291/1694

12:00PM: Stocks opened higher this morning following strong holiday sales figures, but a lack of conviction among buyers has prompted broad-based profit taking... Recognition that the market, and the retail stocks in general, ran up on expectations of a robust holiday season has provoked selling in most industry groups... Virtually every sector has shown weakness, with retail and consumer staple being two of the hardest hit due in part to a warning from Wal-Mart (WMT 53.34 -1.98)... The retailer slashed November same-store sales forecasts to 0.7% versus a prior expectation of 2-4% comparable growth...

Last trade 81.82 Change +0.04 (+0.05%)

Settle 81.78 Settle Time 23:30

Open 81.97 Previous Close 81.78

High 82.16 Low 81.78

Last tick: 2004-11-29 12:54:34 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

58. It's Only a Matter of Time (Hyperbole, but also valid concerns)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chuhran/chuhran112904.html

More ominous than these almost fully developed new bubbles is the fact that the Fed-induced, artificially low interest rates spawned the derivative "carry trade." This is where financial institutions play, unregulated, OTC derivatives that borrow short term, low interest money and lend it out at higher rates for a longer term. They collect the "spread" between the long and short rates while betting that the Fed's well telegraphed bias will remain stable or loose causing the overall value of the underlying bond portfolio to grow or at least remain unchanged. In this situation, it's "free money" and everyone wanted in on the game.

These derivatives are so volcanic because they're all about leverage; and most large institutions can leverage at 20:1, but Fannie and Freddie's enormous size allows leverage as high as 50:1. The Bank of International Settlements, which is the principal center for international central bank cooperation, notionally valued global derivatives at the end of 2004Q2 just short of $220 Trillion. These derivatives are also experiencing a 23% year-over-year growth rate as banks and quasi-financial institutions, like GE and GM, play "pass the hot potato."

The problem comes in a rising rate environment, like we're entering now, where the value of the bond portfolios decrease. A very rough rule of thumb is every +1% rise in yield results in a -10% drop in the bond's value. Therefore, these highly leveraged institutions are setup to take massive losses; and this might explain KPMG's recent refusal to sign off on Fannie's quarterly report. Fannie now sits in violation of SEC rules with a realized, but so far unreported, $9 Billion loss on derivatives if they were accurately "marked-to-market." As institutions attempt to slowly back out of position, they're likely finding it an extremely delicate balancing act. Many have intricately interwoven webs that are unwieldy while others will remain until the last drop of "free money" is squeezed from the slowly dehydrating markets. This virtually ensures a disorderly unwinding of the "carry trade" as one large counter-party default has the potential to cause a domino-like collapse.

snip>

I hope you realize by now that we're not getting the true global economic picture from any of our media outlets. Apparently, France and Germany desire reserve currency status for the Euro; as Europe's largest economies, they have the most to gain. Prior to the second Iraq war, they conspired with Saddam to begin selling Oil in Euros in an attempt to at least achieve co-equal exchange medium status with the USDollar. We simply could not allow that to happen as their gain in currency demand is our direct loss. If we allowed this to happen, it would very likely result in a corresponding plunge in USDollar demand leading to a precipitous collapse in its value. As the US shrugs its shoulders to recent European calls for currency intervention to stop the USDollar's slide, we are seeing the initial stages of direct economic conflict. France, Germany and Russia precipitated the need for our current War with Iraq, through the Euros-for-Oil-for-Food program; and then they collectively voted against the US in the UN attempting to block our efforts to restore economic order. Of course, Saddam did violate something like 17 UN resolutions and there were concerns about WMD, but in my opinion the war was fought in defense of the USDollar. The UN is now stonewalling our efforts to uncover the truth behind that Euro-Oil-Food scam, which has signs of involvement at the highest levels, while the Europeans, Russians, and OPEC met several weeks ago to discuss further economic cooperation. They're also pushing for appeasement treaties with Iran, much like the decade long appeasement of Iraq, while Iran secretly gathers their nuclear strength. Also, the Euro needs time to build a better foundation on firmer ground; it's not quite ready to replace the USDollar. This has the makings of a full blown World War, but if it has to be, then the US would be better off fighting it now rather than doing it on anyone else's timetable. Delay only allows the Euro time to firm up while Iran has further opportunity to develop and expand their nuclear capabilities. If faith is subsequently lost in the USDollar, or if global support is withdrawn as some OPEC countries switch to Euros-for-Oil, then the value of the USDollar will likely collapse driving our economy into a depression. I firmly believe a wider war is coming, but America's adversaries want us fighting from a position of weakness, not a position of strength. Time is on their side, not ours!

snip>

The problem is that the market rules; and this process can spin out of control as the market seeks its own equilibrium.

Unfortunately, our past habit of living-beyond-our-means has us backed into a corner; we also have few viable alternatives. The only thing that will hold up the money supply going forward is another "Guns and Butter" fiscal policy where we fight a wider war for a just cause.

I can hear the sabers rattling with Iran. It's only a matter of time.

more...

[54anickel]

60. The Reactor Goes "Critical"

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund_nigel/maund_nigel112904.html

One cannot but notice that the collapse of the world's effective reserve currency, from its manipulated holding triangle, coincided exactly with the successful re-election of George W Bush. Beautifully orchestrated if I may say so! However, the timing was a little too perfect for those who care to notice such things.

Nothing better proves the dirty manipulation of world markets for political reasons than this little exercise, and, moreover, it speaks volumes concerning how, and to what extent, the markets can be rigged if you have the capability to create billions of digital dollars out of thin air at a second's notice, such is the awesome power the Fed Chairman wields. Tricking and trapping the markets and analysts has become a grand game for the insiders; and this is what we call "free markets." Some joke!

With the US$ in virtual freefall, and Alan Greenspan now saying a weaker dollar is a good thing for the US economy, one may sensibly ask:... "What next?"

Inflation

With the dollar headed towards 72 on "the Index," before any halt in its "Jules Verne type voyage" to unfathomed depths, the obvious impact on inflation barely needs any amplification. Responsible un-syndicated writers such as Jim Puplava and Doug Noland, not to mention a host of others whose articles one can read on these pages, have already pointed out the building inflationary pressures in the US economy over the past 12 months. These same writers have also written articles concerning the unprecedented commodity boom now underway, with major price rises (between 30% and 200%) in gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, nickel, cocoa, oil, soya, etc. ad nauseum. On top of all this, comes the less obvious impact of higher property rentals, due to vast property inflation, on all goods and services, and, with these, the higher sales and other taxes levied serve to compound the inflationary pressures. The strongly "doctored," or, more aptly, debauched CPI, is a totally meaningless and misleading figure. Real inflation is already in double figures and headed towards the high teens.

If you now consider things are getting tough, let me tell you: "you have seen nothing yet!" The US dollar has only recently completed the first leg of its decent, with the US election its watershed. It has now commenced the second, and much more severe, leg of its three phase devaluation. The big question is this: "At what point will the Fed be forced to raise rates at a far higher rate than a piddling 25 basis points per month to slow the US dollar decline before "the hull is crushed" under massive selling pressure, and goes into vertical freefall, thus marking the start of Phase 3 (Total Collapse) ?"

more...

[JNelson6563]

62. Both very alarming stories!

Yikes! I think these people are really and truly crazy. I can only wonder in terror about who the chimp is going to replace Snow with. Snow's not bad enough??? Hoo-boy.

Julie

[54anickel]

65. The only motive that I can see these days is empire. We'll simply

default on the debt, meanwhile we've got idiots like Abizaid rattling sabers around the world.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1028971#1029051

[UpInArms]

66. maybe Poppy's friend from Hill & Knowlton - Craig Fuller?

n/t

[54anickel]

70. Heh-heh, he probably has plenty of free-time on his hands now-days -

Gotta wonder if he wasn't the director for the OBL feature flicks. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

71. last Craig Fuller siting

was near the Smear Boat Vets

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=agLaDbuAUnfg&refer=top_world_news

how suprising (not)

[54anickel]

72. Aw, for cripes sake! I can't believe how deep this sh*t runs these days.

[UpInArms]

74. it's definitely an infestation

of vermin.

Similar to the rats that brought the plaque.

[54anickel]

61. Where is that gold dinar?

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/554FAF3A-B267-427A-B9EC-54881BDE0A2E.htm?printguid={E7515CEE-880E-492F-B225-A94E21D90D2B}

When Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Muhamad last November retired from his 22 years in power at age 77, I had hoped he would devote his energies to a monetary reform of the Islamic world built around a gold dinar.

But after a few speeches and press releases on this subject, he has disappeared, practically dropping out of sight.

With the dollar price of gold now soaring and the US dollar sinking against the euro, the whole world could now make good use of Mahathir's idea, but what happened to it?

US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan last week shook the financial and commodity markets with his comments at a banking conference in Frankfurt, saying the dollar would continue to fall against other currencies because of US trade deficits.

But if the United States had a gold dollar, this could not happen, and Greenspan, who I have known personally for 32 years, knows this.

snip>

Why am I interested? I've been trying for the last quarter century to persuade my country to restore the gold dollar as the core of a new international monetary system. But as turbulent as the world of commerce has been with the floating US dollar, inflating and deflating in random cycles, I've had no luck.

more...

[JNelson6563]

63. Lady Luck has made an appearance!

It's 1:36 and we can only wonder if she's here to stay. Enjoy the afternoon at the casino Marketeers and remember, The House Always Wins.

Dow 10,464.59 -57.64 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,100.40 -1.57 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,177.03 -5.62 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.334% +0.094

NYSE Volume 816,767,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,147,887,000


Julie

[UpInArms]

64. troubles with treasury sales

1:32pm 11/29/04 U.S. AUCTIONS 26-WEEK BILL AT 2.395% YIELD

1:31pm 11/29/04 TECHNICAL TROUBLE DELAYS TREASURY WEEKLY BILL AUCTION

1:32pm 11/29/04 U.S. AUCTIONS 13-WEEK BILL AT 2.195% YIELD

[UpInArms]

78. Treasurys close with key yields at early August peaks

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38320.6413026852-828212082&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- A sell off in the bond market Monday drove key yields to their highest in nearly four months. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note closed U.S. trading down 23/32 at 99 11/32. Its yield ($TNX) rose to 4.33 percent from 4.23 percent on Friday. Uncertainty over continued foreign demand for U.S. debt, expectations for improved U.S. economic data after a mostly strong start to holiday spending and technically driven selling were behind price declines and yield gains.

[UpInArms]

67. Gold futures close above $453

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38320.5842245023-828206042&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures closed above $453 an ounce in New York for the first time since June 1988, fueled by the bleak outlook for the U.S. dollar. December gold closed at $453.70 an ounce, up $4.40 for the session. February gold tacked on $4.30 to close at $455.80 an ounce. December silver also added 15.7 cents, or 2.1 percent, to end the day at $7.77 an ounce.

[54anickel]

68. Future profits are down, but inflation is up! (Mogambo from last week)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/nov242004.html

Total Fed Credit, which is the fount of from whence springs all that magical, out-of-thin-air, fairy-dust money that is the hallmark of the Greenspan Fed, was up another $3.8 billion in the last week. The Treasury issued another $3 billion in actual paper-and-ink cash, which is NOT money made of fairy dust, but is, instead, money that is made from actual paper and ink, but which is just as phony-baloney. All of which is why the G-20 are all gathering in emergency session to try and figure out a way to manage this dollar crisis thing without any of THEIR citizens taking a whack to the head, and of course we are going to insist that no AMERICANS will take a whack to the head, either, meaning that they have to figure out a way of this mess where nobody has to take a whack to the head.

But this is why they pay themselves the Big Money: They sit around all day, drinking coffee, popping tranquilizers, and pondering the impossible How taxing it must be on their tiny little brains! But this only shows how incredibly stupid all twenty of these nations are, because the lessons of history are clearly outlined in the course syllabus that you were given on the first day of class, and if you have lost your copy of the syllabus, then you have learned another Valuable Mogambo Lesson (VML) that you can take from my class and gainfully use the rest of your life because it will serve you very well, which is, namely, that you should pay attention and shouldn't lose your stuff.

If you care to read your course syllabus, you will note that the Section Titles clearly indicate that there is no freaking way that the G-20 , or the G-100, or a G-5,000 or a G-zillion can EVER come up with a way to turn bankruptcy and ruination into a gain for all parties concerned. Life doesn't work that way. And while we are talking about Valuable Mogambo Lessons, here is another one that you can tell to the members of the G-20; when you abuse not only the American monetary system, but also the world's monetary system in collusion, then everybody is going to take a whack to the head! And their inescapable conclusion will be that it is Alan Greenspan, an American, who is to blame, and thus it is Americans who are going to pay the price for hiring him and for hewing to such monumental monetary stupidity that is the hallmark of the Federal Reserve System in general and the Alan Greenspan Years in Especial Particular.


But foreign central banks, desperate to try and keep the dollar from sinking any lower because they have foolishly tied their entire economies to a single buyer, the United States, bought up a staggering $7.8 billion in US debt, and stored it at the Fed, bringing their total holdings to $1.3 trillion dollars. To do this, they had to create money and credit of their own currency, which means that they are committing monetary inflation and guaranteeing price inflation for their own stupid citizens! Morons! They felt they "had" to do this because their citizens are drowning in a deluge of receiving more than $600 billion a year, in dollars, which equals the current account deficit of the United States. But their citizens don't want to keep dollars! No! They want their own stupid little currencies! They want their own currency because they buy things in the local stores in their own currency, their creditors send them bills denominated in their local currency, and bill collectors are calling on the phone day and night and sending me these letters that have this vicious overtones of latent hostility about some debt or another and they are always talking in terms of local currency and in terms of broken local kneecaps, and when their wives go out shopping they don't say, "I am going shopping now, jerk-face. I will need all of your dollars. So fork them over, bozo!" No, their wives say pleasant things like "I am going shopping now, my wonderful darling, and will need local currency, my precious little sweetie snookums!"

more...

[54anickel]

69. World's biggest free trade bloc created in Asia

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2922791

VIENTIANE, Laos - Southeast Asian nations and China signed an accord today to create the world's biggest free trade area by removing tariffs for their 2 billion people by decade's end -- a key step in their vision of a trade bloc to rival Europe and North America.
Leaders in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations also signed a pact to flesh out their agreement last year to create an ASEAN Community along the lines of a unified Europe by 2020. It aims to create a common market with common security goals.

"China's initiative has put both the U.S. and Japan on the defensive," said Chao Chien-min, a Chinawatcher and political science professor at Taiwan's National Chengchi University. "China is using its huge market as a bait to lure ASEAN countries away from the U.S. and Japan and build closer relations."

The run-up to the ASEAN summit in the Laotian capital was clouded by concerns that Thailand's crackdown last month on a protest that left 85 Muslims dead could inflame regional militants, and over Myanmar's failure to deliver on pledges to go from military rule to democracy.

Some countries indicated they might call those two ASEAN members to task in what a break with the group's tradition of keeping out of domestic affairs. But both issues were kept off the table during the summit's ASEAN-only agenda Monday, Thai government spokesman Jakrapob Penkair said.

more...

[54anickel]

73. 2:38 and starting to shoot straight up

Dow 10,512.63 -9.60 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,109.97 +8.00 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,180.94 -1.71 (-0.14%)
10-yr Bond 4.329% +0.089
30-yr Bond 4.976% +0.088
NYSE Volume 986,708,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,360,802,000

2:30PM: Choppy trading still has equities on the defensive as sector leadership remains negative... But the overall tone has become mixed in the last half hour of trading, suggesting renewed buying interest in technology... Advancing issues on the Nasdaq have reclaimed a 16 to 14 edge over declining issues while the margin of decliners to advancers on the NYSE has narrowed to an 18 to 14 edge... The ratio of up to down volume reflects a similar lead at the Nasdaq, where up volume is outpacing down volume...NYSE Adv/Dec 1399/1889, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1616/1459

2:00PM: Stocks continue to recoup earlier losses as the Nasdaq rebounds into positive territory... The steady comeback effort is a reflection of the underlying bullish bias as interim dips continue to be met with buying interest... The inclination to buy on dips has been driven by the expectation that the market is poised to end the year on an upbeat note, now that the presidential election is in the rearview mirror and there is a renewed appreciation for the pace of economic, and earnings, growth...

Strikingly, while the big-cap stocks are finding it difficult to gather much momentum today, the small-cap shares continue to find buying interest... The Russell 2000, which is up 13.9% for the year, is up 0.53% today...NYSE Adv/Dec 1335/1940, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1667/1403

[UpInArms]

75. 2:46 and cahones starting to disappear

Dow 10,511.89 -10.34 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,109.29 +7.32 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,182.09 -0.56 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.330% +0.090
NYSE Volume 1,021,788,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,408,761,000

[54anickel]

76. SNARF!!!!!!....n/t

[UpInArms]

77. where is the money going?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0ADAF766%2D7E9C%2D472A%2D800B%2DA5EF30BCF3F4%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

U.S.-based stock funds netted $7.17 billion in October, down from $10.2 billion the previous month. Among stock funds, world equity funds -- U.S. funds investing mainly overseas -- attracted $4.79 billion in October, according to the Investment Company Institute, the fund industry's main trade association.

Bond funds took in $3.47 billion last month, up from $2.83 billion in September. Hybrid funds, which typically invest in a mix of stocks, bonds and other securities, attracted $3.45 billion in October, up from $2.97 billion in September, the Washington-based group said.

Money-market funds had $14.1 billion in net outflows last month after leaking $42.4 billion in September, ICI said.

...more at link...

[54anickel]

81. 56.5 billion left MM funds? Where did it go indeed? I would venture to

guess that some was pulled into cash just to help make ends meet, but surely not 56.5 billion worth in 2 months!

How much of that was private foreign investors? We did have a report last month about quite a bit of those funds being pulled from our markets. :shrug:

[Kenneth ken]

92. I love reading this thread

but almost never have anything to contribute.

I pulled my 401K or whatever it is out of money-market funds and moved it to international funds. I doubt that even registered as a blip in that $56.5 Bn though.

:hi: and thanks all you regular posters on this thread.

[UpInArms]

94. Hi Kenneth ken!

Drop in anytime!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

79. Crude closes near a four-week high; natural gas drops

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38320.6375070486-828211721&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil futures climbed Monday to close at their highest level in almost four weeks with traders betting on a decline in last week's U.S. heating-oil supplies and eyeing the latest musings from OPEC members. January crude rose 32 cents to close at $49.76 a barrel in New York. But January natural gas closed at $7.837 per million British thermal units, down 9.3 percent following a 13 percent climb on Wednesday and market speculation that the Energy Deparment may revise the bigger-than-expected decline in natural-gas supplies it reported last week.

[54anickel]

82. Huh? Crude was on its way down this morning.

Crude Oil Falls on Expectation U.S. Has Adequate Winter Supply
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- New York crude oil futures fell on speculation the U.S. is importing enough of the fuel to boost inventories of heating oil for winter.

Heating-oil stockpiles on the East Coast rose 102,000 barrels to 29.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 19, an Energy Department report showed last week. The nation's crude- oil stockpiles increased for a ninth week, leaving supplies 1.1 percent higher than a year earlier.

``The crude oil stock position is reasonable now,'' said Daniel Hynes, a resources analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. ``It's just a matter of refining it into the required products.''

Crude oil for January delivery fell as much as 32 cents, or 07 percent, to $49.12 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $49.19 at 12:54 p.m. Singapore time.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=avk7U7uteTpk&refer=germany

[UpInArms]

80. 3:40 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,499.03 -23.20 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,108.02 +6.05 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,180.64 -2.01 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.330% +0.090

NYSE Volume 1,221,600,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,664,129,000

3:30PM: Equities continue to trade at improved levels, but the recent resurgence has run into some resistance... With no earnings of note out Tuesday, economic data should take center stage in the early going... At 08:30 ET the preliminary Q3 GDP report will be released... The market isn't expecting any change to the 3.7% gain noted in the advanced report... By and large, unless there is a meaningful change in the preliminary report or in the accompanying deflator (also expected to be unchanged at +1.3%), this report should have little impact on the trading action...

At 10:00 ET, the Conference Board's November Consumer Confidence data for November will be reported... From an economic standpoint, this report will receive top billing on Tuesday as the market will be keenly assessing consumer attitudes entering the holiday selling season... The consensus estimate is 96.0, which is up from 92.8 in the prior month... Separately, the Chicago PMI report (consensus 62.0) will also be released at 10:00 ET and will help set expectations for the national ISM Index on Wednesday...NYSE Adv/Dec 1571/1756, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1837/1295

3:00PM: Market stages a late-day recovery effort as the market's inclination to buy on dips remains intact... The early retreat was driven by disappointment that there wasn't any strong follow through from buyers after encouraging holiday sales data; however, the quick recovery is now being driven by an urge to get back in since the early sell-off wasn't sustained...The market's resilience in the face of selling efforts just feeding that fear of missing out on a year-end rally...

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 1.6% every December since 1950 and roughly 1.1% during an election year...

[54anickel]

83. Someone told me

It’s all happening at the zoo.

I do believe it,
I do believe it’s true.

It’s a light and tumble journey
From the east side to the park;
Just a fine and fancy ramble
To the zoo.






Awww, my pic doesn't show up :-(

Was from here: http://www.metrarail.com/DayTrips/brookfield.html

Heh-heh - NEVERMIND!!! Doing that "now you see it, now you don't" Hmmmm.

[UpInArms]

84. 3:52 EST and heading south again

Dow 10,470.80 -51.43 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,104.11 +2.14 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,178.21 -4.44 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.330% +0.090

NYSE Volume 1,283,398,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,734,119,000

I thought maybe they would try to stay above 10,500 :shrug:

Guess those brass balls were fakes :evilgrin:

[TrogL]

85. Loonie Watch/sob story

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2004-10-29 Friday, October 29 0.819068 USD
2004-11-01 Monday, November 1 0.817728 USD
2004-11-02 Tuesday, November 2 0.815461 USD
2004-11-03 Wednesday, November 3 0.825014 USD
2004-11-04 Thursday, November 4 0.829669 USD
2004-11-05 Friday, November 5 0.834655 USD
2004-11-08 Monday, November 8 0.838574 USD
2004-11-09 Tuesday, November 9 0.83682 USD
2004-11-10 Wednesday, November 10 0.834934 USD
2004-11-12 Friday, November 12 0.838997 USD
2004-11-15 Monday, November 15 0.831117 USD
2004-11-16 Tuesday, November 16 0.838082 USD
2004-11-17 Wednesday, November 17 0.838574 USD
2004-11-18 Thursday, November 18 0.8285 USD
2004-11-19 Friday, November 19 0.838364 USD
2004-11-23 Tuesday, November 23 0.842815 USD
2004-11-24 Wednesday, November 24 0.846525 USD
2004-11-26 Friday, November 26 0.849257 USD
2004-11-29 Monday, November 29 0.844167 USD




The loonie lost against everything :cry::cry::cry::cry:.

Blather says it's profit taking.

But then again, Dubya's gonna be in town tomorrow.

[54anickel]

86. Probably just needed a break. I'm sure the bird will be flying high

again in no time. Besides, you don't want it to get too high, too fast, do ya?

[UpInArms]

87. Canadian Dollar Falls; 3rd-Quarter Current Account Shrinks 16%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=a3G5zd0UKc6o&refer=canada

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar remained lower after a government report showed the current account shrank by 16 percent in the third quarter, which may dim speculation the central bank will lift its target interest rate next week.

Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said Nov. 24 the currency's recent surge may hurt exporters, whose goods become more expensive abroad. About 40 percent of the economy is tied to exports. The current account is considered the broadest measure of a country's trade. Tomorrow, Canada releases its report of third-quarter gross domestic product.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.5 percent to 84.53 U.S. cents at 8:32 a.m. in Toronto, from 84.93 U.S. cents late Friday. One U.S. dollar buys C$1.1830. The currency has surged 11 percent in the last three months and reached a 12-year high of 85.32 U.S. cents on Friday. It dropped as low as 84.27 cents earlier.

The Bank of Canada next meets Dec. 7. It has raised the target rate at the previous two meetings Sept. 8 and Oct. 19, to 2.5 percent. Higher interest rates can cause coupons on newly issued bonds to rise, driving demand for the local currency to buy debt.

The surplus in the current account narrowed to C$9.4 billion last quarter, from C$11.2 billion in the second quarter, Statistics Canada said in Ottawa.

...more...

Not to worry, TrogL, you do still have a lovely surplus :)

[UpInArms]

88. after the bell - another 200 jobs cut in the semi-conductor industry

4:06pm 11/29/04 TRIQUINT SEMI TO CUT $18M IN OPTOELECTRONIC-UNIT COSTS

4:07pm 11/29/04 TRIQUINT SEMI TO CUT 200 OPTOELECTRONIC-UNIT JOBS

[UpInArms]

90. TriQuint Semi to cut 200 jobs, sees $20M-$21M Q4 charge

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38320.6763225463-828215832&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT) said after the bell Monday that it will cut 200 jobs and take a fourth-quarter charge between $20 million and $21 million tied to the restructuring of the company's optoelectronics operations. The unit will be at or near breakeven on a cash basis by mid-2005, according to the company. The cuts should save $18 million a year, TriQuint said.

[54anickel]

89. Seeing as the NASDAQ did fairly well today, here's a little diddy on

Google

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

Investors have observed that the internet advertising biz is once again a growth industry. And they have found that Google has become a major player, so after carefully reading the prospectus and comparing future anticipated earnings to today’s stock price, investors have decided to throw bushels of money at the stock. Google has rallied some 80% since coming public, often rising sharply after Major Company Events, like when a Wall Street analyst jacks up the target price.

Google has been dream come true for every stock player sporting the bumper sticker, “Please, just one more bubble.”

So now at $180 a share, Google boasts a market cap of $50 billion, which is lot of billions. To get an idea how many, we can compare Google to General Motors and learn that the Google market cap is more than twice that of GM’s. This is impressive when you consider that GM is a company in a business whose barriers to entry include a bevy of engineers, gigantic factories, a highly skilled workforce and a network of established dealerships. The barriers to entry to the search engine business, on the other hand, include proprietary web designs reflecting the seasons of the year.

For the record, if online industry sales are really approaching the $10 billion figure mentioned above, then Google is trading for five times the amount spent on all internet advertising. And if Google were to translate those sales into earnings, say by producing a nifty 14% net profit margin – about on par with Yahoo’s – that would give Google about $1.4 billion in profits. In other words, if investors woke up tomorrow to hear CNBC report that Google is doing so well that MSN.com and Yahoo can’t sell a single banner ad, and that Google will gin up $10 billion in revenues next year resulting in $1.4 billion in profits, the stock would still be selling at a 35 PE.

Of course, internet advertising is growing so darn fast that maybe it’s not fair to saddle Google with such pedestrian valuation metrics. So let’s view Google's valuation in the context of worldwide advertising revenues. The Economist figures that globally, advertising will generate revenues of $343 billion this year. Hold that thought. Because from our trusty Value Line we learn that giant media company Belo often traded at 1-2 times sales during the greatest bull market of all time. So let’s figure that as Google matures it will trade around 1 times sales, at least every now and then. So for Google to trade at 1 times sales with a $50 billion market cap, the company would have to crank out $50 billion in revenue which comes to 15% of all of the advertising dollars spent on planet earth.

more...

[UpInArms]

91. Treasury spokesman: no change to dollar policy

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38320.6742157523-828215612&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Bush administration has not changed its so-called "strong dollar" policy, Treasury Department spokesman Tony Fratto said. Treasury Secretary John Snow believes in a strong dollar and "currencies should be set in open competitive markets," Fratto said when asked about the greenback. "Our policy on currencies hasn't changed," he added.

and the whole world ROFLICAO

(rolls on floor laughing its collective asses off)

[UpInArms]

93. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,475.90 -46.33 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,106.87 +4.90 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,178.57 -4.08 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.330% +0.090

NYSE Volume 1,378,097,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,845,041,000

The market began the day with gains across the board, but soon gave into selling pressure as investors took profits following what was a fairly strong start to the holiday season...Results were not disappointing, but one retailer's news - namely Wal-Mart's (WMT 53.19 -2.13) warning that November same store sales would check in weaker than expected - took the wind out of the indices' sails... Traders thus sold into the indices' recent run and concentrated their efforts in the blue chips... Retail and consumer staples were particularly hard hit, along with financial and homebuilding... The latter experienced a drop as concerns about another rate hike left treasuries tumbling to lows not seen since August... Technology, however, demonstrated relative strength throughout the day thanks to particular strength in computer hardware... Analysts made several encouraging remarks about Apple Computer's (AAPL 68.47 +3.92) growing iPod shipments in the current quarter... The Nasdaq, therefore, finished with modest gains, whereas the NYSE closed with moderate losses... Late-day buying in health care and transportation did not help turn the tide there... Finally, crude oil was virtually directionless today, trading in a narrow range for most of the session under the psychological $50/bbl level, closing +0.32 at $49.76/bbl... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1443/1921. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1729/1411.

[54anickel]

95. Hey UIA, if you're still out there....

:wtf: is going on with silver? Have you looked at the chart today?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&v=s

How bizarre is THAT? Flatline all day long except for that HUGE drop and bounce - down to 4.4, then right back up to 7.7something. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

96. Hi 54anickel!

yeah, I'm still here (seems like I'm always here anymore :shrug: )

looks like the ino chart had a glitch - here's the kitco and it doesn't show any anomalies



here's the kitco silver chart page link for you, too :)

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html#ny

[54anickel]

97. Thanks UIA. Never thought to check another chart - DOH! First time

I can remember running into a glitch at kitco. :hi: