STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 1 December

[ozymandius]

Wednesday December 1, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 355 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 44 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1105
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 30, 2004

Dow... 10,428.02 -47.88 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq... 2,096.81 -10.06 (-0.48%)
S&P 500... 1,173.82 -4.75 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.36% +0.03 (+0.65%)
Gold future... 453.20 -2.60 (-0.57%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - MONTHLY CHARTS

-moving past many charts-

Summary

Based upon 50 years of historical price data, advances with a magnitude of the current one experience a "momentum failure" prior to termination. A "momentum failure" takes place when price makes a higher high, yet momentum indicators make a lower high. Usually that type of combined action has given a valid warning that the advance is over. None of our intermediate-term momentum indicators have diverged negatively. They all have confirmed the recent price highs by making higher highs. So, with a number of different momentum indicators confirming price, I really do not have much to conclude upon, that at the present time the odds favor an abrupt intermediate term trend change. I do have several reasons to expect a 3%-5% decline in the near term, but no "technical" reason to expect an immediate resumption of the bear market. With lower lows lying directly ahead in the absence of an exogenous catastrophic event, that curtails investors' robust appetite for risk.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[leveymg]

11. In plain English, Bush's (phony) post-election rally is over

The broad market has nothing to celebrate. Back to the same old, same old five-percent trading range - 9,800-10,300. Four more years, and stocks will down by another 15 percent in real terms - inflation will again exceed index gains. This kind of devaluation of savings is practically invisible (because the corporate media and Wall Street shills pretend not to notice), but it's painful, particularly for those dependent on investments, such as retirees.

- Mark G. Levey

[ozymandius]

21. Welcome Mark!

You have identified an economic factor that does not see the light of day very often: the influence of inflation on economic gains. If inflation is running higher than the rate of expansion - what is the net gain in real numbers?

[leveymg]

36. Thanks, ozymandius

Nice group. Good graphics.

To your comment - as you know, rising commodities prices inevitably get passed on. There's been a lot of ledger-domain of inflation indexes and retail price buffering by major integrated companies -- but, that was tied to their U.S. reelection strategy. There's a huge lagging price push coming -- particularly in the domestic gasoline and energy sector -- that's putting downward pressure on the dollar.

Now that Bush & Co. are safely back, that 23-year high in commodities prices is going to be translated into a 23-year high in retail price increases. No putting that off further.

Gotta get some graphics - any suggestions where?

- Mark

[UpInArms]

38. Hi Mark!

If you're looking for charts - here's a page with a bunch of chart links

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/FreeCharts.php

[leveymg]

85. Hi, and thanks for the graphs

Hi, UpInArms -

Am a big fan of BigCharts and KitCo looks interesting. Interesting to see how paper money is taking a pounding across the board (I noticed, though, the Euro wasn't a featured graph)relative to precious metals.

Absolutely agree about the preferences of intelligent women!

- Mark

[RawMaterials]

43. might be a dumb question

but in the long run wouldn't inflation work its way back into stock prices?

eg, buy a stock at 10, then inflation pushes the cost of everything up, eventually wages come up with inflation. then there is more "money"(paper) to buy stocks, so wouldn't the value of the stock eventually "catch" up with inflation. in the long run.

[leveymg]

84. Not a dumb question, at all

Hi,RawMaterials -

That seems intuitively correct; but, to see returns in real values depends upon how long a time line you're looking at. In recent history, periods of high inflation -- the 70s -- were a miserable period for stock values. You would have done better collecting stamps from the peak of the great 60s Bull Market in 1967 until 1983, which marked the beginning of the next big Bull run.

I think the monetarists are right, inflation is the enemy of share values. That is why Mr. Greenspan's recent rumblings strike me as a belated bellwether of bad times to come for American equities markets. Of course, one can make a lot of money in a downward market, and for industrial oligopolies, its a great way to gain market share and leading-edge processes on the cheap. Over the long run, the big guys definitely come out ahead (relatively speaking) after bad times of high prices, tight credit, and business failure.

The inflation of money and of share prices don't really track each other, I think, and even if they do, the lag is sometimes so great as to make the correlation practically worthless as an analytical concept.

- Mark

[54anickel]

13. Do Hedge Funds Calm Markets or Inflate Bubbles? (Riding bubbles)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_lynn&sid=atvYpIaqIHMs

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Have hedge funds made markets work better or worse?

With the explosion of hedge funds -- there are now more than 7,000, controlling almost $900 billion in assets -- there is no hotter issue in global finance.

To some, hedge funds are reckless gamblers, using weird financial instruments to blow apart currencies and stocks, pushing up prices and creating speculative bubbles.

To others, they are benign new pools of capital that help investors by spreading their risk, and they stabilize the market by taking up contrary positions.

Who's right? A study in the October issue of the Journal of Finance, an academic publication produced by the American Finance Association, suggests the funds are inflating bubbles, not damping them. If it is right, one of the main defenses of hedge funds has been weakened. And much of the marketing hoopla in which the funds like to cloak themselves will have been punctured.

more hedge bubbles...

[ozymandius]

18. Doesn't Greenscam love hedge funds?

If I recall correctly, weren't there several hedge fund options placed against American Airlines in advance of 9/11?

The way I see it: hedge funds are not legitimate economic tools. Ther are tantamount to gambling on which gamblers will either win or lose at the roulette wheel. The weight of the hedge fund bet unfairly tilts the odds of the outcome.

[UpInArms]

20. Meanspin loves the hedge funds

and wants to keep them free of any and all regulation.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20040715/news_1b15sec.html

excerpt:

Tighter regulation of the funds also is strenuously opposed by other policy-makers, notably Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who maintains that it would hinder the flexibility of financial markets.

Still, a number of hedge fund managers – representing some 40 percent of those in the United States – have voluntarily registered with the SEC, many of them in recent months since Donaldson and other officials began discussing the issue.

Critics of stricter oversight say that institutional investors and sophisticated, wealthy individuals are aware of the risks and don't need the protection of federal regulators.

...more at link...

[54anickel]

25. Exactamundo!!! More "liquidity" for the "wealth creation" scam.

[54anickel]

31. Hedge Fund Manager Jim Rogers Says Industry Peaked

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ayazD5UtWTqE&refer=us

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with investor George Soros, said the industry has peaked because stock and bond returns are dwindling and there's a shortage of good money managers.

``I'm not too optimistic about hedge funds because you won't be making a lot of money from stocks in the next 15 to 20 years and bonds will be doing horribly,'' Rogers said today at a hedge fund conference in Tokyo. ``I'm told there are almost 10,000 hedge funds. With overcrowding, there will be some charlatans and incompetence. You can't have that many smart 29-year-olds around.''

Rogers, 62, who co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1970, said most of today's managers made their reputations during the stock market rally of the 1990s. It will be difficult to replicate that success in the future, he said.

Hedge funds are loosely regulated investment pools designed to profit from falling as well as rising market prices. It's the most lucrative and fastest-growing part of the money-management business. Globally, hedge funds attracted more than $100 billion in the first nine months of 2004, boosting the industry's assets to about $890 billion, according to estimates from Tremont Capital Management Inc. in Rye, New York.

Rogers, who retired at the age of 37 with what he said was ``enough money to satisfy a lifelong yearning for adventure,'' said commodities represented the best asset class for investments and China was the best place to make money.

more...

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.67 Change -0.15 (-0.18%)

Settle 81.82 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.75 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.88 Low 81.57

USD at New Lows as Poor Confidence Trumps GDP

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/defaultnew.asp?f=N20041130C.mgn

An upward revision in US Q3 growth failed to prevent US dollar from hitting all time lows against the euro and fresh 5-year lows against the yen. The run-up in oil prices above the $50/barrel mark did not help the dollar amid recurring jitters with winter heating oil supplies ahead of tomorrow's weekly inventories data. Comments from OPEC member Iran justifying the rise in oil prices with the dollar decline also helped support prices.

<snip>

USDJPY showed mostly choppy trade below the 103 level even as Japan's industrial production fell 1.6% last month in October, undershooting a 0.2% rise.
As USDJPY hits 5-year lows and EURJPY up 3 yen over the past week, we would see less need by the BoJ to intervene in USDJPY because it is largely a dollar a reflection of dollar weakness and not that of yen strength. We see diminishing chances of BoJ intervention as long as EURJPY remains above 134.

USDJPY support seen starting at 102.60, followed by 102.45-50, a break of which sees key support at 101.80 and the 101.30 low of Dec 2000 as a possible point of intervention by the Bank of Japan. USDJPY support stands at 102.00, followed by 101.30. Any intervention-led dollar buying is seen capped at 104, followed by 104.75.

<snip>

King also shed some light on the G20 meeting when he said today that there was no pressure on China to adjust its currency’s peg against the dollar, supporting China’s recent remarks that it was too soon to discuss loosening the yuan's peg. These statements should help temper such speculation, especially after it was indicated by some pundits that China could introduce changes as early as this weekend when the central bank’s monetary policy had a private meeting over the weekend.

...more...

BoJ may ease policy next year

http://afr.com/articles/2004/12/01/1101577525062.html

The Bank of Japan will likely ease policy next year, under pressure from a faltering economy, which peaked ihttp://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=102n the middle of this year, says Yuji Shimanaka, chief economist and general manager of investment research UFJ Institute.

While many economists ponder the likely timing of an end to the BoJ's ultra-loose quantitative easing, Mr Shimanaka says the central bank won't have an opportunity to alter the policy for at least another two years.

"Various leading indicators have worsened and signal that the nation's economy has already entered a down trend," Mr Shimanaka said in an interview. "Pressure on the BoJ to easy policy will increase next year."

<snip>

Since BoJ governor Toshihiko Fukui became governor in March 2003, the central bank has eased policy a number of times but held steady its JGB purchase amount.

"I had initially expected the BoJ to end the quantitative easing between July and September of 2006, but I now expect the easy policy to end in the October-December quarter of 2007," he said.

Mr Shimanaka expected the BoJ to hold back from ending the easy policy until after the government had increased its consumption tax, which might not occur until sometime during or after fiscal 2007, he said.

...more...

FOREX-Dollar finds fragile stability ahead of U.S. data

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH47244_2004-12-01_06-48-37_T167627

TOKYO, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Wednesday to hold near a record low against the euro, but the market hesitated to drive down the U.S. currency further before closely watched economic releases later in the week.

After weeks of heavy selling on worries about the twin U.S. deficits and central banks diversifying out of dollars, the dollar has stabilised in recent days on profit-taking and worries about intervention by Japanese officials.

<snip>

If the reports reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will steadily lift U.S. benchmark interest rates, the dollar could receive support, said some traders and strategists, though economic news has been mostly ignored in the two-month dollar sell-off.

<snip>

The euro was a tad down at 136.75 yen <EURJPY=>.

...more...

Update 1: China Says Beijing Must Finish Bank Reform

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2004/12/01/ap1683761.html

China needs to finish reforming its fragile banks before it ends capital controls that limit free trading of its currency, the country's banking regulator said Wednesday.

The comments by Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, came amid pressure by China's trading partners to end currency controls they say make Chinese exports unfairly cheap and hurt foreign competitors.

"A prudent Chinese banking system should be a precondition for the full opening of the Chinese economy," Liu said at a news conference.

Companies and individuals are allowed to trade China's currency, the yuan, in order to conduct commerce. But regulators worry that easing controls on movements of larger amounts would lead to a flood of money out of China, setting off a financial crisis.

The yuan has been held at a fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar for a decade, but the United States and other governments say it is undervalued by up to 40 percent.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

3. Job worries slice stocks

http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/257610p-220634c.html

A continuing drop in consumer confidence, combined with soft holiday spending, sent stocks down yesterday despite an uptick in economic growth.

The Dow shed 47.88 to 10,428.02, while the Nasdaq lost 10.06 to 2,096.81. Each still finished its best month this year. The Dow advanced 4% in November, and the Nasdaq added 6%.

Major retailers were the big drag yesterday, with Home Depot dropping $1.19 to $41.75 and Wal-Mart off $1.09 to $52.06.

The latest Johnson Redbook retail index said sales grew 0.9% last week over a year ago, a quarter of the previous week's gain.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. Predicting local jobs is a challenge

http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/news/10307518.htm

Each year since 1999, economist Janet Harrah dusts off her crystal ball and makes a very public prediction on how many jobs the Wichita area will gain or lose in the next year.

<snip>

Like many economists nationally, Harrah underestimated the depth and length of the downturn of recent years and the layoffs it brought.

In October 2000, she predicted that 2001 would be another strong year. It wasn't. Aircraft layoffs began in the summer, and by the end of the year 1,600 Boeing employees had been laid off. The 9/11 terrorist attacks magnified the existing weakness in the economy.

"You have to give me a break in 2000," she said. "Nobody predicted that."

In November 2001 she said that despite 4,600 announced layoffs, Wichita as a whole would suffer little decline in employment in 2002. In fact, more than 7,000 manufacturing workers got pink slips and a total of 5,000 jobs overall disappeared, according to the Kansas Department of Human Resources official labor force figures.

In 2002, she called for a very slight increase in jobs overall, based on low interest rates and health care growth. In reality, Wichita lost nearly 6,000 more jobs, most of those in manufacturing.

In 2003, she called for a loss to 850 jobs. She said the estimated job loss is pretty close.

<snip>

Harrah's boss, John Beehler, dean of WSU's Barton School of Business, said he's happy with Harrah's work.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. Kellogg lobbied on sugar under Gutierrez

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2004/12/01/kellogg_lobbied_on_sugar_under_gutierrez/

WASHINGTON -- Under Carlos Gutierrez's stewardship, Kellogg Co. lobbied to open US markets to cheap Australian sugar and called the government's current system for propping up the US sugar industry "one of the worst forms of protectionism."

As Commerce secretary, Gutierrez would be responsible for helping US companies compete abroad, and his record at Kellogg will be scrutinized by the lawmakers who will review President Bush's nomination of the Cuban-born executive.

Gutierrez was credited with turning around Kellogg's struggling finances, opening up new factories in Mexico in hopes of attracting new customers.

He and his company left an unusually small trail of political donations for a major company, making him the first Commerce Department nominee in some time not to be directly tied to major political fund-raising.

<snip>

Gaston Cantens, spokesman for sugar giant Florida Crystals, said the company and its owners, the Cuban-born Fanjul family, welcomed the appointment of a fellow Cuban-American and saw no need for him to step aside from sugar issues. Company president Jose "Pepe" Fanjul is a major Bush fund-raiser, helping to collect at least $200,000 for his reelection bid.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Arnie set to terminate Calpers chief

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid85179?source=

CALIFORNIAN Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has been accused of trying to terminate the corporate governance activism of pension fund Calpers, with president Sean Harrigan saying he is facing a Republican push to have him ousted.

The giant pension fund that controls an estimated $177bn (£92.6bn) in assets has become famous - or infamous in Republican circles - for using its financial might to rail against what it sees as corporate malfeasance, including excessive executive pay.

But now it seems Arnie is set to put an end to Calpers' activities. Reports suggest Schwarzenegger's supporters have garnered enough votes to ensure Harrigan is voted off the fund's panel today. Harrigan serves on Calpers as a representative of the state's personnel board, which oversees the state's civil service system. Anne Sheehan, an official in Schwarzenegger's finance department, has been appointed to that five-person board and will probably tip the vote against Harrigan and in favour of Ronald Alvarado, an appointee of former Republican Governor Pete Wilson.

Harrigan accused the Schwarzenegger's administration in a Los Angeles Times interview of 'trying to take out one of the most outspoken advocates on behalf of corporate governance in the country'.

...more...

[abelenkpe]

71. done

Calpers Pension Fund President Ousted

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=3&u=/nm/20041201/bs_nm/financial_calpers_harrigan_dc

[UpInArms]

73. thanks for the update, abelenkpe

from your link:

excerpt:

The little-known California Personnel Board voted 3 to 2 to replace Harrigan with Ron Alvarado as its representative to the board of the $177-billion California Public Employees' Retirement System.

The state board's five members select a representative to Calpers' 13-member board every December, and its vote will force Harrigan off the pension fund's board, which he headed.

Harrigan, a union official with the United Food and Commercial Workers, earned a reputation as a sharp critic of corporate America while serving as president of Calpers' Board of Administration.

Alvarado is a Sacramento, California, real estate executive who has formerly served on the Calpers' board as an appointee of former California Gov. Pete Wilson.

...more...

I am so surprised that they found a Pete Wilson retread to fill this spot. Wilson was definitely a sack of shit as California Gov.

I despise that out-of-work actor (can't California get a grip?) Ahnold :puke:

[UpInArms]

7. Schlock or Stock, Where Will Investors Find a Name They Can Trust?

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=24209715&brk=1

Dec 1, 2004 (financialwire.net via COMTEX) -- (FinancialWire) Most investors might suspect that the NASD would be breathing down the neck of Joe's Stocks and Meat Packers somewhere on Long Island, but they may have a hard time trying to differentiate between schlock and stock after the latest round of NASD fines.

Those fined included Merrill Lynch (MER), $1.6 million; American Express Financial Advisors (AXP), $700,000, Wachovia Securities (WB), $650,000, and Prudential Equity Group (PRU), $550,000.

Two of the firms, Merrill Lynch and Wachovia, were suspended from registering new brokers for five business days due to what the NASD termed "excessive" violations.

The NASD said the firms did not make at least 25% of their required disclosures in a timely manner in 2002, 2003 and the 1Q of March 2004.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Firm: United owes $994M to pensions

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzair014060775dec01,0,4449330.story?coll=ny-business-headlines

A Washington, D.C.-based pension consulting firm appointed by bankrupt United Airlines in September said in a court filing yesterday that the airline must pay $994 million in skipped contributions to employee pension plans and in benefits accrued by the plans.

Chicago-based United's decision several months ago to skip pension contributions as long as the airline remains in bankruptcy sparked a furor among unions and some in Congress, who charged the carrier was reneging on promises to workers.

The motion filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court by Independent Fiduciary Services Inc. was an apparent victory for United pension holders. Independent Fiduciary oversees plans for flight attendants, mechanics and bag handlers, about 107,000 people.

Independent Fiduciary's motion will go before Judge Eugene R. Wedoff, who is overseeing United's bankruptcy case. Wedoff will rule on Independent's assertion the pension funding contributions are entitled to so-called "administrative priority status." United said it disagrees with Independent's findings.

But conferring such status would mean the pensions are to be paid before any unsecured creditors' claims. Independent has asked Wedoff to hear the motion Dec. 17, said Andy Irving, the pension firm's senior vice president and general counsel.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Thanksgiving prompts slowdown in mortgage volumes

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.2936033218-828379521&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Mortgage applications activity dropped 5.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended Nov. 26 compared to the prior week, the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest survey shows. Refinancing volumes in particular trailed off during the holiday-shortened week, dropping 12.3 percent, while applications for mortgages to purchase homes eased 0.6 percent. Refinancings accounted for 46.4 percent of total applications in the latest week, off from 48.4 percent a week earlier, while adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 32.3 percent from 34.0 percent. The MBA said the average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.78 percent from 5.64 percent on a week-to-week basis, while the rate on a 15-year mortgage, a popular choice for refinancings, reached 5.17 percent from 5.08 percent. But the rate on a one-year ARM eased to 4.12 percent from the prior week's 4.13 percent, the MBA said.

[UpInArms]

10. Today's Reports:

Dec 1 8:30 AM
Personal Income Oct
report -
briefing.com 0.5%
market 0.5%
last report 0.2%
revised -

Dec 1 8:30 AM
Personal Spending Oct
report -
briefing.com 0.4%
market 0.4%
last report 0.6%
revised -

Dec 1 10:00 AM
Construction Spending Oct
report -
briefing.com 0.3%
market 0.7%
last report 0.0%
revised -

Dec 1 10:00 AM
ISM Index Nov
report -
briefing.com 57.0
market 57.0
last report 56.8
revised -

Dec 1 12:00 AM
Auto Sales Nov
report -
briefing.com 5.3M
market 5.1M
last report 5.1M
revised -

Dec 1 12:00 AM
Truck Sales Nov
report -
briefing.com 8.2M
market 8.1M
last report 8.1M
revised -

Dec 1 2:00 PM
Fed's Beige Book

(and this concludes my early morning power-posting - too much coffee, awake too long)

:hi:

[UpInArms]

14. U.S. Oct. personal income up 0.6%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.3546683912-828386333&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Personal income rose 0.6 percent in October, outpaced slightly by spending, which rose 0.7 percent, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Both income and spending exceeded expectations. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had forecast income to rise 0.5 percent, while spending was seen climbing 0.4 percent. Personal savings fell to $17.7 billion, the lowest level since the month after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, when savings were negative. The personal savings rate fell to 0.2 percent, also the slowest rate since October 2001.

8:30am 12/01/04 U.S. OCT. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.6%

8:30am 12/01/04 U.S. OCT. SPENDING UP 0.7%

8:30am 12/01/04 U.S. OCT. SAVINGS RATE 0.2%; LOWEST SINCE OCT 2001

Whee! Who got all that money! Was it the top 1% again?

And lookie there! We spent more than we earned again! Hurray!

There's that "Whoopsie!" on the savings rate again. :(

[54anickel]

17. The doomsday crowd factor. Life is short, the endtimes are a-comin'

Grab all the gusto you can, there is no tomorrow so just live for today.

9-11 brought those feelings out in a lot of folks (especially on the right). Do you suppose Jebush's poor performance in the debates and polls in October rekindled those feelings?

[ozymandius]

22. What was the rate of inflation during this time? n/t

[MrUnderhill]

24. How do you want to measure it?

By some measurements, it's at record lows.

By some it's a tad high.

[54anickel]

26. Commodities index hits 23-year high (Heh-heh, not gonna show up in

any of them "official" measurements of inflation though, will it?

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/de71e16c-42c1-11d9-bea1-00000e2511c8.html

The Reuters CRB Index hit a fresh 23-year high on Tuesday as benchmark US crude futures moved briefly back above $50 a barrel and coffee prices jumped.

However, a subsequent easing in oil prices and a fall in gold and base metal prices later in the session softened the rise in the commodity index. The CRB index, a basket of 17 commodity futures tracked by investors, hit a high of 292.49 points, before easing to 291.31, a marginal increase on the previous close.

Forecasts of a rise in heating oil stocks and of milder weather in the US sent US heating oil futures lower, which in turn dragged crude oil futures down.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Bloomberg "details" here -

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a156L6VsGNOw&refer=home

snip>

``A lot of the extra spending in October was taken up by higher prices of gasoline and food,'' said Nigel Gault, research director at Global Insight Inc., an economic forecasting firm in Lexington, Massachusetts, before the report. ``The whole energy area is eating into consumers' disposable income.''

snip>

Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, rose 0.6 percent in October following a rise of 0.2 percent the previous month. Wages and salaries rose 0.5 percent for a second month. Adjusted for inflation, disposable income rose 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent gain.

snip>

The report's gauge of prices is up 2.4 percent in the 12 months ended in October compared with a 2 percent year-over-year gain the previous month. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, a gauge tracked by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other policy makers, the price index rose 0.1 percent in October and was up 1.5 percent from the same month last year.

The government said Nov. 5 that workers' average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent, or 5 cents, in October. Hourly earnings rose 2.6 percent in October from the same month last year, the biggest 12-month increase since August 2003. Another 193,000 workers may have been added to payrolls this month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg News ahead of the Dec. 3 report.

snip>

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, surged at a 5.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest in almost three years, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Spending grew at a 1.6 percent rate in the second quarter.

Visa USA, the world's largest payment-card company, said retail transactions using credit cards in the two days after Thanksgiving were up 6.1 percent from a year earlier. :wow:

more...

[ozymandius]

15. Powerful power posting!

Good morning UIA. :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I was supposed to return to the thread yesterday but was sidelined by -of all things- a job interview. One of my applications got me a callback. It seems that I passed the orals (phone interview) and they invited me to meet with them in person next week. Woohoo!

Thanks for your comprehensive presence this morning, as always.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

16. Great News about that inteview, Ozy!

:thumbsup:

Any company that gets your presence would be lucky beyond their wildest dreams :)

Hope it works out for you :fingerscrossed:

If the economy would pick up, my presence would also decrease :( , but alas and alack...

My loss is ?'s gain - the joys of self-employment...

[ozymandius]

19. Thank you UIA.

The job has weird hours (small concert hall requiring my presence evenings/weekends) so my participation here would remain just as erratic as now.

Thank you for the morale boost! :toast:

Speaking of the economy: how are things in your neck of the woods?

[UpInArms]

27. my neck of the woods

is getting a mite scary :scared:

but I keep saying that we have survived it this long (the past 4 years have been dismal) and we are still here, so hopefully we can make it another 4 years (barring complete meltdown).

Hope springs eternal (as they say).

[54anickel]

29. Pretty pic. That's pretty much what I woke up to this morning, got our

first measurable snowfall, about 2 inches on the ground. Bright blue sky this AM - very pretty - until I have to go out and shovel it.

[UpInArms]

33. it snowed here yesterday and the day

before - but most of it has melted.

Makes me understand the good part of rain: it does not require a shovel. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

35. U.S. Oct. construction outlays flat

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.4167431597-828393722&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. construction outlays were unchanged in October, as increased spending on highways was offset by the second straight decline in homebuilding, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Economists were looking for seasonally adjusted construction outlays to rise about 0.8 percent. Private-sector outlays fell 0.3 percent. Private residential construction spending also fell 0.3 percent. Private nonresidential construction spending fell 0.4 percent. Public-sector construction outlays rose 1.2 percent. September's construction outlays were revised slightly higher to a 0.1 percent gain from no change previously.

10:00am 12/01/04 U.S. NOV. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 57.8% VS 56.8% IN OCT

10:00am 12/01/04 U.S. SEPT. CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS REVISED TO 0.1% VS. 0%

10:00am 12/01/04 U.S. OCT. PUBLIC-SECTOR CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 1.2%

10:00am 12/01/04 U.S. OCT. PRIVATE-SECTOR CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS DOWN 0.3%

10:00am 12/01/04 U.S. OCT. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS DOWN 0.3%

10:00am 12/01/04 U.S. OCT. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING FLAT VS. 0.8% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

39. U.S. Nov. ISM manufacturing 57.8% vs. 56.8% in Oct

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.4204907176-828394250&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector accelerated in November, the Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday. The ISM index rose to 57.8 percent from 56.8 percent in October. Economists were expected the closely watched index to remain steady at 56.8 percent. Readings over 50 percent indicate growth in the sector. The new orders index rose to 61.5 percent from 58.3 percent.

[UpInArms]

40. ISM Survey for November

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/ROB122004.cfm

excerpt:

ISM's PMI registered 57.8 percent in November, an increase of 1 percentage point when compared to 56.8 percent in October. ISM's New Orders Index rose 3.2 percentage points from 58.3 percent in October to 61.5 percent in November. ISM's Production Index decreased 1.9 percentage points from 58.9 percent in October to 57 percent in November. The ISM Employment Index is at 57.6 percent for November, an increase of 2.8 percentage points when compared to the 54.8 percent reported in October.

ISM's Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than October's 58.6 percent. ISM's Inventories Index registered 50.7 percent in November, up from the 48.2 percent reported in October. ISM's Customers' Inventories Index for November is at 43.5 percent, unchanged from October. ISM's Prices Index in November is 74 percent, 4.5 percentage points lower than the 78.5 percent reported in October.

ISM's Backlog of Orders Index for November declined 1.5 percentage points to 47.5 percent from 49 percent registered in October. ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 54.7 percent, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from October's 56.6 percent. ISM's Imports Index decreased 0.1 percentage point to 58.4 percent in November, down from 58.5 percent in October.

"It appears the manufacturing sector is definitely sustaining its momentum as this month's PMI strengthened slightly while continuing to indicate a gradual downward trend. Prices are a big issue, but the strength in new orders offsets some of those concerns as companies work to benefit from the volume," said Ore.

In November, 15 industries reported growth: Miscellaneous*; Food; Textiles; Tobacco; Printing & Publishing; Apparel; Transportation & Equipment; Chemicals; Instruments & Photographic Equipment; Industrial & Commercial Equipment & Computers; Electronic Components & Equipment; Furniture; Wood & Wood Products; Fabricated Metals; and Rubber & Plastic Products.

...more...

[UpInArms]

41. Petroleum Inventories Reported

10:39am 12/01/04 JAN CRUDE FALLS $1.03 TO $48.10/BRL IN NY

10:39am 12/01/04 U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 900,000 BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:39am 12/01/04 U.S. GAS STKS UP 3 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:39am 12/01/04 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 2.3 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[UpInArms]

51. Daimler-Chrysler/Ford/Mazda Nov sales

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.5225709838-828406035&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

DaimlerChrysler Nov U.S. sales up 4% (DCX) By Shawn Langlois
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- DaimlerChrysler (DCX) (DE:710000) on Wednesday posted a 4 percent increase in November U.S. sales to 183,112. Sales at Chrysler, which is made up of Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler brands, grew 4 percent to 164,280 vehicles while Mercedes-Benz sales added 3 percent to 18,832 units.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.5175543981-828405444&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

Ford Nov U.S. sales down 7%, sees Q1 prod decline (F) By Shawn Langlois
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Ford Motor (F) on Wednesday posted a 7 percent decline in November U.S. sales to 236,855 vehicles and said that first-quarter production will be 8 percent lower than a year ago. Ford brand sales slipped 6.9 percent to 195,862 vehicles while Volvo and Land Rover showed gains, up 2.6 percent and 28.3 percent, respectively.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.520514919-828405728&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

Mazda November U.S. sales down 8.7% (F) By August Cole
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Mazda North American Operations said Wednesday that its November sales were 8.7 percent lower than last year, totaling 17,618 vehicles. The company's biggest sellers were the Mazda3 and Mazda6 models, at 4,071 and 6,781, respectively.

[UpInArms]

57. Nissan/Audi US sales

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.5468074769-828408813&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Nissan North America Nov U.S. sales up 31% (NSANY) By Shawn Langlois
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Nissan North America (NSANY) on Wednesday posted a 31 percent surge in November U.S. sales to 80,376 vehicles with its luxury Infiniti division turning in a 38 percent jump to 11,581 units sold. Nissan-brand sales gained 30 percent to 68,795 vehicles.

1:14pm 12/01/04 AUDI NOVEMBER U.S. SALES DOWN 3.2% TO 6,879

1:14pm 12/01/04 AUDI NOVEMBER U.S. SALES OF A6 MODEL UP 31%

1:15pm 12/01/04 AUDI NOVEMBER U.S. SALES OF A4 MODEL DOWN 8.9%

[UpInArms]

64. GM Nov sales down 12%

2:09pm 12/01/04 GENERAL MOTORS NOV U.S. SALES DOWN 12%

2:16pm 12/01/04 GENERAL MOTORS CUTS Q1 PRODUCTION PLANS BY 7%

[UpInArms]

72. adding link and blather

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.6061896991-828415337&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

General Motors Nov U.S. sales down 12.8% (GM) By Shawn Langlois
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- General Motors (GM) on Wednesday posted a 12.8 percent decline in November U.S. sales to 303,891 vehicles. Truck sales fell 10 percent to 185,699 and car sales dropped 17 percent to 118,192. General Motors also cut its first-quarter production plans by 7 percent to 1.25 million vehicles.

[54anickel]

80. GACK! TWELVE Percent?!?!? As in a dozen? Double digit? Yipes!...n/t

[UpInArms]

59. Fed's Beige Book

Beige Book shows continued growth
Retail sales mixed, job market improves, price pressures mount

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9DAC6E40%2DD70C%2D4BD6%2D8186%2D60134EA3A1A9%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Eleven of 12 U.S. regions showed stronger economic growth in past month, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday in its Beige Book report on the economy.

Only the Cleveland region bucked the improving trend, the Fed said.

Reports from thousands of contacts in the 12 Federal Reserve regions "generally paint a picture of continued economic growth," the report said.

Retail sales were said to be mixed across regions, while hiring has improved throughout the nation. Price pressures are mounting, especially for energy and industrial materials. Some businesses are passing cost increases onto their business customers, but so far consumers are resisting higher prices.

Retail sales were solid or growing in five regions and sluggish in four.

Auto sales were flat or lower.

"While competition limited the ability of producers to pass higher costs forward, several districts noted that some industries were successful in passing along cost increases," the Beige Book said. Retail prices, however, were little changed.

"Labor markets continued to improve," the report said. Some skilled jobs were in short supply. Wage pressures were absent in all regions except Chicago, but benefit costs were pushing up total employment costs.

Manufacturing was robust in nine of 12 regions, with Cleveland, Richmond and San Francisco lagging behind.

Residential real estate markets were cooling in seven districts, while weak commercial real estate markets were slowly improving.

...more...


2:00pm 12/01/04 BEIGE BOOK: CONSUMERS RESISTING PRICE HIKES

2:00pm 12/01/04 BEIGE BOOK: MANUFACTURING STRONGER IN MOST REGIONS

2:00pm 12/01/04 BEIGE BOOK: LABOR MARKETS STRENGTHENING

2:00pm 12/01/04 BEIGE BOOK: PRICE PRESSURES MOUNTING

2:00pm 12/01/04 BEIGE BOOK: RETAIL SALES MIXED ACROSS REGIONS

2:00pm 12/01/04 FED'S BEIGE BOOK: CONTINUED GROWTH IN 11 OF 12 REGIONS

[UpInArms]

12. JDA to slash staff by 13%, take Q4, 2005 Q1 charges

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.3200347222-828382356&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - JDA Software Group Inc. (JDA) said Wednesday it would cut its workforce by 13 percent, or 167 people, as part of a plan to save about $15 million to $17 million. JDA said it would take a fourth quarter restructuring charge of $3.2 million to $3.6 million, and a 2005 first quarter charge of $1.4 million to $1.18 million. Shares closed down 20 cents Tuesday to $13.12.

So who and what is JDA?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?sid=16409&symb=JDAS&siteid=mktw

JDA Software Group Inc Website Annual Report
14400 North 87th Street Phone: [phone]
Scottsdale ARIZONA 85260

Fax: [phone]


JDA Software Group Incorpated. The Company's principal activity is to provide sophisticated software solutions. The software solutions are enhanced and supported by retail specific professional services. Retail Enterprise Systems, Host Systems, Analytic Applications, In-Store Systems, Collaborative Solutions and Maintenance & Consulting services are its operating segments. The software solutions are designed specifically to address retail demand chain, enhanced decision making and responsiveness to consumer demands, improved inventory management and e-commerce & collaboration capabilities. The Company operates in the United States, Asia, Australia, Europe, and Japan. During August 2003, the Group acquired substantially all assets of Engage Inc. and during April 2003, it acquired all intellectual property and active customer agreements of Vista Software Solutions Inc.

and it looks like Scott Hines (Chief Technology Officer) has been busy selling off lots of his stock lately.

[54anickel]

23. Free credit reports may reveal surprises

One of my pet peeves about looking for a job - almost ALL employers in my area require you to apply on-line and the majority require you to provide your SS# on-line. Yet there are supposedly laws that state the only time anyone can require you to provide a SS# is if they need it for tax reporting. That means AFTER you're hired, a bank, only if your business results in interest being paid or earned. Yet cable companies, telephone companies and merely potential employers are requiring your SS#.

Yet what does our beloved gubbermint do? Rather than stop this BS, they allow you to get a free annual credit check. :eyes:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6612374/?displaymode=1006

snip>

That kind of surprise credit denial is precisely the motivation for Congressionally-mandated free credit reports, which become available to some consumers beginning Wednesday at AnnualCreditReport.com. Federal law signed by President Bush last December required the nation's three credit bureaus to give consumers free access once a year to their credit report, an essential history of personal loans and other economic activity that's used by banks and other institutions to make lending decisions. Consumers are entitled to a free report once a year from each of three main agencies: Equifax, Experian and Trans Union.

Gallow-Vazquez's rejection notice from Discover was vague, indicating there were problems on her credit report. When she called Discover, she was told to contact credit reporting agencies and get a copy of her credit report.

When she did, she found herself stuck in the middle of an all-too-typical American consumer nightmare. The report was pock-marked with unpaid utility bills and loans, all taken out in Gallow-Vazquez's name by an imposter. There were even repeated attempts to buys cars and houses in her name. For almost two years, someone had been signing up for telephone, Internet, and electricity services, using her personal information. And now, she was left to clean up the mess. Without checking her credit report, she would never have known there was a problem.

snip>

According to the Federal Trade Commission, 27 million Americans have been victims of identity theft in the past 5 years. Advocacy groups say it takes an average of one year before a victim discovers the problem. And almost always, the problem is revealed when consumers order a copy of the credit report -- usually after a surprising credit denial. The swelling crisis led to a slate of new consumer rights passed into law last December, included in the Fair and Accurate Credit Transaction Act. The launch of AnnualCreditReport.com is the most obvious new consumer right included in the law. It entitles every American consumer -- about 200 million people -- to a free copy of their credit report each year.

snip>

When consumers visit AnnualCreditReport.com, they will be asked a number of personal questions to determine their identity. Typical multiple-choice questions include: What company holds your mortgage? What is your monthly payment? Who holds your auto loan? The questions required "out-of-wallet" answers, to prevent an imposter from looking up the report details. The bureaus will also be marketing additional services to consumers who use the Free site. Experian, for example, offers to sell consumers a peek at their credit score, and a service to prevent identity theft. :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

30. 9:37 EST markets are open (pre-opening blather)

Dow 10,467.11 +39.09 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,107.65 +10.84 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,178.05 +4.23 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.328% -0.030

NYSE Volume 52,736,000
Nasdaq Volume 114,937,000

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0. Expectations remain set for a higher open for the cash market... Specific news items of interest include Novellus (NVLS) guiding to the high end of its Q4 EPS range, Cigna (CI) and Humana (HUM) raising their EPS guidance, Raytheon's (RTN) $700 mln stock buyback, and positive analyst comments from JP Morgan regarding disk drive stocks.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0. The futures market continues to suggest a higher open for the cash market with traders taking a bullish cue from the best gains seen in personal income and spending since April 2004... The only notable earnings report out this morning came from Dollar General (DG), which missed expectations by three cents.

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0. Futures trade improves some in the wake of the better than expected personal income and spending data for October... Income was up 0.6% (consensus +0.5%) and spending was up 0.7% (consensus +0.4%)... The indices remain set for a hgher open as the data, notwithstanding yesterday's confidence report, suggest consumer spending should remain solid during the holiday selling season

8:20AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the cash market as upbeat sentiment in futures market remains intact...

[UpInArms]

32. SEC suspends trading in 26 companies

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.4050772569-828392427&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission is temporarily suspending trading in 26 companies for failing to make required filings, the agency said Wednesday morning. Trades of shares of companies including Abacan Resources Corp. (ABACQ) , DMT Energy Inc. (DMTY) and Household Direct Inc. (BYIT) will be halted from Wednesday until 11:59 p.m. EST Dec. 14, the SEC said.

[54anickel]

37. S.E.C. to Reveal Overhaul Plan for Markets

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/01/business/01place.html

In the twists and turns in the debate over the future of how stocks are traded, opponents now find themselves in a rare moment of agreement.

The Securities and Exchange Commission announced late yesterday that it would unveil its latest proposal for an overhaul of the United States stock markets, called Regulation NMS (National Market Structure), and give market participants 30 to 90 days to comment on it.

The new proposal, which has some major differences from the previous one, has had the unusual effect of unifying market participants who had previously been vehemently at odds. The original version seemed to have the support of the New York Stock Exchange, while frustrating Nasdaq, Instinet and Fidelity, among others.

The latest version, whose details have not been fully disclosed but which has been widely debated nonetheless, has inspired instant cooperation among those rivals, who are now quietly demanding transparency and caution. They all agree that more public comment should be permitted before the S.E.C. acts on the new version.

"Regulation NMS makes for strange bedfellows," said Eric D. Roiter, senior vice president and general counsel for the mutual fund arm of Fidelity Investments, which does not support the original version of NMS or the talk of the revised version, either.

At issue is how stocks are traded on the major exchanges and marketplaces. There is currently a rule that requires that investors get the best price available for a stock trade. Detractors of that so-called trade-through rule, including Fidelity, Instinet and Nasdaq, have argued strongly that investors should be able to choose where they want their trade executed and how.

more...

[UpInArms]

34. 9:55 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,508.44 +80.42 (+0.77%)
Nasdaq 2,115.71 +18.90 (+0.90%)
S&P 500 1,181.89 +8.07 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.334% -0.024

NYSE Volume 160,228,000
Nasdaq Volume 273,620,000

9:40AM: Stock market gets off to a higher start aided in part by better than expected economic data... The Commerce Department's personal income report showed 0.6% (consensus of 0.5%) growth for the month of October, up from a 0.2% gain in September... And October personal spending nearly doubled expectations with a 0.7% gain (consensus of +0.4%) - signaling a far better start to Q4 than economists expected... The data portend well for the holiday spending season and have provided a boost for the market...

At 10:00 ET, the economic report carrying the most weight this morning will be the November ISM survey, which economists believe will come in with a reading of 57.0%...

Last trade 81.65 Change -0.17 (-0.21%)

Settle 81.82 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.75 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.88 Low 81.57

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-12-01 09:25:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

42. 10:47 EST Dow SOARING - Dollar FALLING

Dow 10,552.82 +124.80 (+1.20%)
Nasdaq 2,126.01 +29.20 (+1.39%)
S&P 500 1,186.84 +13.02 (+1.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.366% +0.008

NYSE Volume 428,921,000
Nasdaq Volume 653,224,000

10:35AM: Equities still holding onto the bulk of their gains following a slew of economic news this morning... The ISM's survey of manufacturing activity for November came in above expectations at the top of the hour with a reading of 57.8 versus expectations of 57.0... The prices paid component dropped rather substantially from October, indicating that inflation remains well-contained...

Strong sequential growth in new orders (future demand), rising back above 60 (61.5), and an improved employment index, increasing rose 3 points to 57.6, signaled further expansion and hiring activity within the sector, respectively... The national manufacturing index has held in a 56.8 to 59.0 range for the last four months, following 60+ levels earlier in the year... The lower levels only reflect a deceleration in positive growth... Separately, the EIA just reported its weekly oil inventories report... Crude oil supplies rose 900K barrels(consensus called for a 200K decrease) while distillates showed a 1.98% in weekly supplies... The market has traded slightly higher in response...NYSE Adv/Dec 2024/858, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1866/835

10:00AM: Major indices maintain their positive stance, led by a strong showing in virtually every sector... Technology has led the way, with average gains of nearly 1.5% in semiconductor, disk drive, and networking... Retail (+1.3%) has rebounded after recording its weakest showing since August yesterday while homebuilding, airline and healthcare have also gained ground... Utility (-1.2%) has shown the most weakness, along with energy with crude oil holding steady below $49/bbl...


Last trade 81.57 Change -0.25 (-0.31%)

Settle 81.82 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.75 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.88 Low 81.57

Last tick: 2004-12-01 10:16:30 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

44. It's a miracle! Praise be to Jebush!!!!

[Chicago Democrat]

50. With falling dollar, doesn't it make sense for Stocks to go up?

OK, this is my thinking....

With the falling dollar...assets go up...like gold and oil and cars and food. For stocks I would think this would make them go up as well. Since companies produce these goods and services.

Companies can always raise their prices. So anyway I'm thinking long on stocks.


Bonds, deposits, CDs are another matter, since rates will be rising the value of bonds will go down. So sell those bonds and stick it in Euros until $ rates have gone up..

[54anickel]

53. Well, the last time there was a major devaluation in the US$ in the 80s,

it did end with that messy bit in 87 known as Black Monday.

Here's an article from April 04, before we hit that little "sticky patch". Still seems pretty revelant. The main difference between today and the 80's is the huge number of hedge funds and derivatives that are now in play.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/delavan042004.html

[trogdor]

55. Since the Dow is computed in dollars.

It would make sense that when the dollar dips, it would cause a corresponding increase in stock prices relative to the dollar.

[UpInArms]

45. The amazing shrinking dollar

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2004/12/01/the_amazing_shrinking_dollar/

I RECENTLY returned from Europe, where the dollar just hit a new low against the euro. The European Union's new common currency, widely disparaged in Washington as a bizarre idea that would never win acceptance, was worth about 90 cents in 2002. Now it costs you $1.33 and is rising. The euro has emerged as a worldwide rival to the greenback. It makes the United States a bargain basement for visiting Europeans, while Europe is staggeringly expensive for Americans.

What ails the dollar? Two things. Our trade deficit grows bigger every year, as does our budget deficit. Both deficits require foreigners to supply capital. The more capital they have to supply, the more nervous they get about the dollar. Lately, private foreign investments in US stocks and bonds have both declined, leaving the United States precariously dependent on two foreign central banks -- China and Japan -- to finance its twin deficits.

The US trade deficit is now close to 6 percent a year and rising. In theory, a very cheap dollar should improve the trade balance by making exports cheap and imports expensive. But it doesn't work out that way. For one thing, many foreign producers, such as Japanese automakers, "price to market." That means that when the yen rises against the dollar, they just eat the cost in order to maintain their market share. So the dollar price of a Toyota doesn't change and the trade deficit doesn't improve.

<snip>

We could face a serious recession with no easy cure, since the usual fix is to run temporary deficits plus low interest rates. But in this case, overly large deficits were part of the problem, and higher interest rates would be necessary to prevent a further dollar collapse. But won't the Japanese and Chinese central banks, whose economies rely so heavily on exports to the United States, keep buying American bonds? Perhaps -- it's a kind of co-dependency in which they willingly buy paper that is losing its value because the exports help develop their real economies.

On the other hand, the United Staates is not just dependent on foreign central bank purchases of bonds. Because our budget deficit eats up so much domestic savings, our stock market and venture capital markets also are net borrowers from abroad. In the past we have counted on the fact that the American economy was so productive that foreigners, despite the trade deficit, saw the United States as a smart place to invest. But if the dollar is weak enough long enough, that investment starts drying up. US financial markets have been quavering lately because foreign investment flows are dwindling.

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. Dollar drifts near historic lows

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B93621C34%2D095D%2D44B5%2D9B54%2D2B3309DE7AA2%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The U.S. dollar remained near multiyear lows against the euro, Japanese yen and British pound Wednesday as the burden of U.S. deficits continued to plague its currency despite signs of improving economic growth.

The dollar trimmed its decline modestly after the release of a key U.S. manufacturing gauge that beat forecasts, but the broader currency market used the dollar's improvement only as a trigger to sell it anew.

"The data are either ignored or used as an opportunity to the sell the dollar at better levels," said Mike Malpede, senior currency analyst at Refco in Chicago.

<snip>

Malpede said the dollar looks set to fall further as most officials and investors think a weaker U.S. currency is necessary to unwind the record U.S. current account deficit - a broad measure of trade that includes investment flows.

Evidence in recent days that foreign central banks are looking to increase reserves with currency other than dollars, and the apparent willingness of finance officials on all three continents to let the dollar slide gradually are opening the door for further declines.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. CME: 11th monthly rise in electronic eurodollar trade

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.4807089931-828401223&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Eurodollar futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's electronic system accounted for 74.35 percent of total CME eurodollar futures volume in November, the CME said Wednesday. In October, electronic eurollar futures trade at the CME stood at 71.55 percent. Nobember marked the 11th consecutive month of increases in the percentage of CME eurollar futures trade on Globex. In January, that percentage stood at 9.6 percent.

[UpInArms]

48. 11:48 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,569.30 +141.28 (+1.35%)
Nasdaq 2,129.82 +33.01 (+1.57%)
S&P 500 1,187.49 +13.67 (+1.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.367% +0.009

NYSE Volume 695,473,000
Nasdaq Volume 983,505,000

11:30AM: The bullish bias remains firmly in tact across the broader averages... Advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq have maintained more than a 2 to 1 edge over decliners early on... The ratio of up to down volume reflects an even stronger lead on both the Big Board and Composite, where up volume has outpaced down volume in excess of 4 to 1... Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has pushed toward a new weekly high while the Dow has tested a similar level near 10557...NYSE Adv/Dec 2198/881, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2005/882

[54anickel]

49. 12:15 lunch hour check-in

Dow 10,542.11 +114.09 (+1.09%)
Nasdaq 2,127.80 +30.99 (+1.48%)
S&P 500 1,186.14 +12.32 (+1.05%)
10-yr Bond 4.359% +0.001
30-yr Bond 5.021% +0.009
NYSE Volume 792,337,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,107,923,000


12:05PM : Better than expected economic data and cheaper oil have translated into a huge rally for the indices (+1.1-1.5%) with virtually every sector sporting solid gains... A strong November ISM Index reading of 57.8 (consensus 57.0) has held the most weight among a slew of economic releases, showing continued expansion and hiring activity within the manufacturing sector... Additional good news has come from the October personal consumption data, as personal income showed 0.6% (consensus of 0.5%) growth for the month, up from a 0.2% gain in September...
The personal spending figure of +0.7% (consensus of +0.4%) has also been well-received by the market as it signaled a strong start to Q4 GDP... October construction spending was the only real disappointment, coming in flat (consensus was 0.7%), but that reading was quickly dismissed given the volatile nature of the report... As a result of the mostly strong economic data, investors have flocked to stocks across the board, with retail, industrial, health care, and tech showing relative strength... The advance has only gained momentum after a positive weekly crude oil inventories report...

Crude oil supplies showed a 900K increase (consensus -200K) while distillates increased 2.3 mln barrels (consensus +1.5 mln)... Crude oil thus took a hit ($47.15/bbl -$1.98), which supported the indices' buying drive... The only laggards of note have been energy (off the crude oil price decline) and utility due to some analyst downgrades...NYSE Adv/Dec 2254/888, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2084/884

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2249 (67%) 2058 (66%)
Declines 929 (27%) 916 (29%)
Unchanged 147 (4%) 140 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 583 (79%) 905 (86%)
Down Vol* 143 (19%) 131 (12%)
Unch. Vol* 6 (0%) 15 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 362 255
New Lo's 0 15


And the buck -
Last trade 81.59 Change -0.23 (-0.28%)

Settle 81.82 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.75 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.88 Low 81.55

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-12-01 11:47:14 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

52. Gold futures climb closer to $460 an ounce

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B8E746F27-EF0C-4247-960A-644D1E73E7A4%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- February gold is up $2.60 at $455.80 an ounce at midday, after trading as high as $456.50 earlier. Dollar weakness continues to fuel the price climb. March silver is also up 22.3 cents, or 2.9 percent, at $8 an ounce and trading at its highest level since mid-April.

[54anickel]

54. Zowie!!! Silver too?!?! ...n/t

[UpInArms]

58. silver futures closed at $8.08

1:42pm 12/01/04 GOLD FUTURES REACH ANOTHER JUNE 1988 CLOSING HIGH

1:42pm 12/01/04 FEB GOLD CLIMBS $2.70 TO CLOSE AT $455.90/OZ IN NY

1:42pm 12/01/04 MARCH SILVER UP 3.9% TO CLOSE AT $8.08/OZ, A 7-MO HIGH

[54anickel]

62. Wonder where our good friend CaptainClark is? This should make him

rather happy. Too bad his timing was just a bit off that caused him to loose his bet with Frodo. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

56. Article regarding the gold ETF. Can't copy and paste, so here's the

link - http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=7206

[UpInArms]

60. Fed's Yellen - pause in rate hikes ????

2:09pm 12/01/04 YELLEN SAYS HIGH-TECH SLOWDOWN MIGHT HURT ECONOMY

2:09pm 12/01/04 YELLEN SAYS UPTICK IN CORE INFLATION NOT 'BIG CONCERN'

2:09pm 12/01/04 YELLEN SAYS MARKETS SUGGEST HIGH OIL PRICES MAY LAST

2:09pm 12/01/04 YELLEN SAYS HIGHER OIL PRICES ARE DAMPING SPENDING

2:09pm 12/01/04 YELLEN SAYS FED SHOULD PAUSE IF DRAGS ON GROWTH PERSIST

2:09pm 12/01/04 YELLEN SEES MULTIPLE FACTORS HOLDING DOWN U.S. GROWTH

2:09pm 12/01/04 FED'S YELLEN MAKES CASE FOR PAUSE IN RATE HIKES

[54anickel]

61. Heh-heh-heh.... Hey UIA, unrelated to your post, but wanted to share -

I came across this fellows site while surfin' - he's
got quite a collection of articles on the US$ and stock market.

http://www.internetional.se/usd.htm

[UpInArms]

65. interesting link, 54anickel

here's a bit from it:

To bring about a substantial reduction in the external deficit without a deep recession, the US needs a huge change in internal relative prices.
About Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revealed
Martin Wolf Financial Times 1/12 2004

How far might the dollar fall? By as much as 50 per cent from its peak, in trade-weighted nominal terms, suggest two distinguished international economists, Maurice Obstfeld of the University of California, Berkeley and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard.* Up to now, the fall has been just 17 per cent, on a broad trade-weighted basis (see chart). More, it seems, is on the way.

If there were no changes in relative prices, a reduction in US demand would not only improve the current account deficit, but also generate a recession. A reduction in demand equal to the current account deficit would end up reducing it only from 6 per cent to 4.2 per cent of GDP. But it would also lower demand for non-tradeables and so reduce GDP by 4.2 per cent. To eliminate the external deficit, GDP would need to fall by a sixth and output of non-tradeables by a fifth. This would be a depression.

The size of the required price changes is determined by “elasticities of substitution” a fancy name for the changes in relative prices needed to bring about given changes in demand. According to Prof Obstfeld and Prof Rogoff, the real exchange rate depreciation needed in the US could be as big as 34 per cent.

Finally, because the pass-through of changes in nominal exchange rates to prices is low, the nominal exchange rate change needed might be double the real one.

This is not an analysis of what will happen. It is an analysis of what could happen if the US had to eliminate its current account deficit. Provided the rest of the world is happy to finance a substantial (albeit somewhat smaller) deficit indefinitely or is relaxed about the speed of adjustment, the required changes in relative prices can be smaller, slower or both.

...more...

hmmmm.... Must read more :D

[UpInArms]

63. Fed's Yellen makes case for pause in rate hikes

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38322.5904043519-828413601&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Many factors are holding down growth in the U.S. economy, creating "opportunities" for the Federal Reserve to pause from its path of steady rate hikes, said Janet Yellen, the president of the San Francisco Fed. Yellen said there are three factors dampening economic growth at the moment: higher oil prices, cautious business spending and a large and growing trade deficit. Two other factors -- the low savings rate and waning stimulus from tax cuts -- may hit the economy soon, she said. If these factors "continue to weigh on the economy or worsen, there will be more opportunities for the FOMC to pause," Yellen said. On the other hand, should there be signs that these drags are lessening, it may be appropriate for the Fed to hike rates more rapidly, she noted.

[54anickel]

68. Are they afraid the bond vigilantes are getting ahead of Greenspin?

Amazing, one day they're pulling economic growth outta their ass, the next day they try to damping the expectations. Meanwhile, this will be what - the 3rd time where Bubbles has taken steps forward on rates just to back down again?

On edit add:

[UpInArms]

70. it's this crazy Texas-Two-Step dance

where they just spin around and confuse their "partners".

:crazy:

[TrogL]

66. Loonie Watch

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2004-11-01 Monday, November 1 0.817728 USD
2004-11-02 Tuesday, November 2 0.815461 USD
2004-11-03 Wednesday, November 3 0.825014 USD
2004-11-04 Thursday, November 4 0.829669 USD
2004-11-05 Friday, November 5 0.834655 USD
2004-11-08 Monday, November 8 0.838574 USD
2004-11-09 Tuesday, November 9 0.83682 USD
2004-11-10 Wednesday, November 10 0.834934 USD
2004-11-12 Friday, November 12 0.838997 USD
2004-11-15 Monday, November 15 0.831117 USD
2004-11-16 Tuesday, November 16 0.838082 USD
2004-11-17 Wednesday, November 17 0.838574 USD
2004-11-18 Thursday, November 18 0.8285 USD
2004-11-19 Friday, November 19 0.838364 USD
2004-11-23 Tuesday, November 23 0.842815 USD
2004-11-24 Wednesday, November 24 0.846525 USD
2004-11-26 Friday, November 26 0.849257 USD
2004-11-29 Monday, November 29 0.844167 USD
2004-11-30 Tuesday, November 30 0.840195 USD
2004-12-01 Wednesday, December 1 0.843455 USD




The loonie's back in business with modest gains against most currencies. No specific economic news on the CBC other than Dubya's visit to Ottawa was relatively quiet.

I had been hoping for a definitive statement on mad cow other than "real soon now" and something other than deafening silence on softwood lumber.

Basically, Dubya's visit appears to have been a complete waste of time for everyone involved other than everybody can get back to business as usual.

[UpInArms]

67. 2:31 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,559.84 +131.82 (+1.26%)
Nasdaq 2,130.35 +33.54 (+1.60%)
S&P 500 1,187.76 +13.94 (+1.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.375% +0.017

NYSE Volume 1,215,321,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,647,582,000

2:00PM: Equities continue to run in place, with technology showing strength across the board... Specifically, semiconductor capital equipment has garnered much of the attention following positive comments from Novellus Systems (NVLS 28.25 +1.31) at its mid-quarter update... The company issued upbeat comments following issuing worse-than-expected guidance in October... Despite revising its Q4 order guidance to $325-330 mln, down 22%-23%, it was still better than the previous forecasts which called for a 22-24% decline...

Analysts have also taken note that, while Novellus will see a significant drop in sales, strong cost controls should keep margins sequentially flat... Also trading higher has been Intel (INTC 22.75 +0.37), which will host its own mid-quarter update after the close of trading tomorrow...NYSE Adv/Dec 2304/984, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2113/957

1:30PM: Market continues to put together a solid advance, with positive catalysts found in economic data and the drop in crude oil prices.. Earnings news, however, has been a mixed bag this morning with Dollar General (DG 19.50 -0.25) missing consensus expectations by $0.03.... This has not been the norm this reporting season, with most companies coming in ahead of estimates... Analysts continue to expect the S&P 500 Index as a whole to turn in roughly 17% EPS growth for Q3...NYSE Adv/Dec 2334/925, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2121/930

Last trade 81.58 Change -0.24 (-0.29%)

Settle 81.82 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.75 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.88 Low 81.55

Last tick: 2004-12-01 13:58:47 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

75. 3:03 EST numbers (astounding blather) and the buck

Dow 10,578.54 +150.52 (+1.44%)
Nasdaq 2,134.03 +37.22 (+1.78%)
S&P 500 1,190.05 +16.23 (+1.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.383% +0.025

NYSE Volume 1,340,939,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,806,064,000

2:30PM: Little change over the past half an hour as the major averages retain most of their gains... The dollar, however, has continued its decline against the euro ($1.3318) and yen ($102.70) amid continued concerns over the growing US deficit... Even the British pound has touched record levels at the expense of the greenback's ongoing weakness... The pound, which earlier hit a 12-year high against the dollar, has been lifted by positive remarks from the Bank of England regarding the country's economy...

Meanwhile, the Fed's Beige Book (its guide to the Fed district economies prior to the Dec 14 FOMC meeting) came out at the top of the hour and showed continued economic expansion due to improvements in labor markets and less wage pressure... In repsonse, the 10-year note has lost 7 ticks, trending towards its lows of the session, and now yields 4.37%...NYSE Adv/Dec 2280/1032, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2125/961

2:00PM: Equities continue to run in place, with technology showing strength across the board... Specifically, semiconductor capital equipment has garnered much of the attention following positive comments from Novellus Systems (NVLS 28.25 +1.31) at its mid-quarter update... The company issued upbeat comments following issuing worse-than-expected guidance in October... Despite revising its Q4 order guidance to $325-330 mln, down 22%-23%, it was still better than the previous forecasts which called for a 22-24% decline...

Analysts have also taken note that, while Novellus will see a significant drop in sales, strong cost controls should keep margins sequentially flat... Also trading higher has been Intel (INTC 22.75 +0.37), which will host its own mid-quarter update after the close of trading tomorrow...

Last trade 81.63 Change -0.19 (-0.23%)

Settle 81.82 Settle Time 23:36

Open 81.75 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.88 Low 81.55

Last tick: 2004-12-01 14:35:31 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

76. adding 3:00 blather

3:00PM: Major indices continue to trade in a narrow range, but the bullish bias remains intact... From technology and airline to healthcare and homebuilding, buying interest has been prevalent in almost every sector... But while energy has trended lower, in cooperation with a 7.3% sell off in crude oil ($45.52/bbl -$3.61), utility has also failed to take part in today's rally... Utility, which tends to lag the overall market in an uptick, has been under pressure all day after two Dow Utilities components were downgraded...

Banc of America Securities downgraded Public Service Enterprise (PEG 43.56 -0.43), to Sell from Neutral, citing valuation as PEG shares have surged more than 10% over four months... Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on First Energy (FE 39.41 -2.82) to Equal-weight from Overweight after the company issued FY05 EPS and cash flow guidance considerably below the firm's forecasts...DJUA -1.21, NYSE Adv/Dec 2303/1028, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2121/985

[UpInArms]

69. Do Not Expect Intervention from Japan

http://www.forexnews.com/AI/defaultnew.asp?f=A20041201A.mgn

Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said today Japan and Europe could take "harmonized action" to stem the appreciation of their currencies.

Although these comments carry semblance of coordination, such coordination remains unlikely at this point. At current levels, the yen’s appreciation versus the dollar is largely a result of dollar weakness and not yen strength. We can see this through the charts below, where the Japanese currency is relatively stable against the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. Thus, although the yen is standing near 5-year highs against the dollar, its relative stability against the major currencies does not call for interference in the market.

As a result, the Bank of Japan may find it futile to intervene by selling yen for dollars when the problem is that of a dollar weakness instead of yen strength. The futility of such dollar-selling intervention is even more highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s silence in the face of the dollar’s tumble. In fact, the Fed is increasingly perceived to be passively encouraging the dollar decline via its recent pronouncements on the subject (McTeer, Yellen and Greenspan).

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. What's behind the wave of layoffs here?

http://www.lancasteronline.com/pages/news/local/4/10080

excerpt:

“Each of these companies has a different story,” observed Dave Nikoloff, executive director of the Economic Development Co. of Lancaster County.

“I hate to say something as simpleminded as things are evening out. But some companies are expanding in Lancaster County. Some companies aren’t. I can’t say it’s because Lancaster County is a bad place to do business,” he said.

In the latest wave of layoffs here, Kemps Foods said it will close its Hempstead Road plant, idling 240 workers, while Armstrong World Industries said it will trim 70 workers at its Columbia Avenue headquarters, a month after cutting 450 jobs at its Liberty Street floor plant.

These losses followed announcements earlier this year that Wyeth will close its Marietta plant, eliminating 440 jobs, and C&D Technologies will lay off 72 workers at its Leola plant, among other firms to reduce payrolls.

Tom Baldrige, president of The Lancaster Chamber of Commerce & Industry, agreed that the furloughs are based on specific conditions, not generic problems.

“It’s very situational,” said Baldrige. “Every company has its checklist of what will make them profitable. All of them, it’s safe to say, use different criteria.”

...more...

[UpInArms]

77. closing numbers

Dow 10,590.22 +162.20 (+1.56%)
Nasdaq 2,138.23 +41.42 (+1.98%)
S&P 500 1,191.37 +17.55 (+1.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.375% +0.017

NYSE Volume 1,772,124,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,268,124,000

Last trade 81.57 Change -0.23 (-0.28%)

Settle 81.56 Settle Time 15:38

Open 81.75 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.88 Low 81.55

Last tick: 2004-12-01 15:40:34 ET
30-min delayed quote.

gotta run - maybe can get the blather later :hi:

[54anickel]

78. Zowie!!! That DOW will hit 10,700 in no time at this rate! How'd

Uncle Jed say that - "Weeeell Doggie!"

Meanwhile buck achieves the low for the day of 81.55

Last trade 81.55 Change -0.23 (-0.28%)

Settle 81.56 Settle Time 15:38

Open 81.75 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.88 Low 81.55


Still waiting on the closing blather, here's the latest though -

3:30PM : Market showing no signs of slowing going into the close, as sellers remain a reluctant bunch... Earnings from S&P constituents Comverse Technology (CMVT 22.34 +1.07) and Pall Corporation (PLL 27.18 +0.09) will be out tonight while Q3 results from Albertson's (ABS 25.74 +0.44) will be out before the bell tomorrow... November same-store sales, however, will be tomorrow's headliner, superceding notable economic data such as weekly jobless claims (consensus +330K) and October Factory Orders (consensus +0.2%)...
Intel's (INTC 22.86 +0.48) Q4 mid-quarter update will be take place after the close of trading tomorrow, beginning at 5:30 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 2302/1021, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2136/983

3:00PM : Major indices continue to trade in a narrow range, but the bullish bias remains intact... From technology and airline to healthcare and homebuilding, buying interest has been prevalent in almost every sector... But while energy has trended lower, in cooperation with a 7.3% sell off in crude oil ($45.52/bbl -$3.61), utility has also failed to take part in today's rally... Utility, which tends to lag the overall market in an uptick, has been under pressure all day after two Dow Utilities components were downgraded...

Banc of America Securities downgraded Public Service Enterprise (PEG 43.56 -0.43), to Sell from Neutral, citing valuation as PEG shares have surged more than 10% over four months... Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on First Energy (FE 39.41 -2.82) to Equal-weight from Overweight after the company issued FY05 EPS and cash flow guidance considerably below the firm's forecasts...DJUA -1.21, NYSE Adv/Dec 2303/1028, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2121/985

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2338 (66%) 2123 (64%)
Declines 1025 (29%) 1020 (31%)
Unchanged 135 (3%) 134 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 1390 (78%) 1887 (83%)
Down Vol* 365 (20%) 346 (15%)
Unch. Vol* 12 (0%) 35 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 486 329
New Lo's 3 21

[54anickel]

81. And the splash of blather -

Close Dow +162.20 at 10590.22, S&P +17.55 at 1191.37, Nasdaq +41.42 at 2138.23: The market opened higher, driven by encouraging economic data, and enjoyed broad-based gains in excess of 1.5% as oil continued to weaken into the close and the positive tone never wavered... Notable economic data included a November ISM Index reading of 57.8 (consensus 57.0), which showed further expansion within the manufacturing sector, while better than anticipated monthly personal consumption figures suggested strong spending in the holiday season...
October Personal Income, with an increase of 0.6% (consensus of 0.5%), was the strongest since May, while a Personal Spending figure of +0.7% (consensus of +0.4%) portended well for strong Q4 real GDP... October Construction Spending was out as well, but even a disappointing reading of 0.0% (consensus 0.7%) was viewed as a nonevent given the unpredictable nature of the report... Aside from the encouraging economic data, improved company guidance, positive analyst comments, and a large drop in the price of crude oil drove the broad-based buying drive... Nearly every sector recorded substantial gains, with technology and transportation leading the way...

A better than expected mid-quarter update from Novellus Systems (NVLS 28.45 +1.51) buoyed buying interest in semiconductor (+3.7%) while upbeat comments from JP Morgan helped ignite a rally in the disk drive group (+4.7%)... Homebuilding, healthcare, financial, retail, consumer discretionary and telecom service were a few others showing strength... Airline (+5.6%) itself, along with the rest of the market, got a huge lift from the drop in crude oil...

Crude oil futures fell more than 7% (-$3.64) to $45.49/bbl following strong weekly crude oil supplies, which showed a 900K increase (consensus -200K), and higher distillate inventories, which increased 2.3 mln barrels (consensus +1.5 mln)... Falling in sympathy to the sell off in oil was energy... Utility also trended lower following the downgrades of two Dow Utilities components... The Fed's Beige Book, released at 14 ET, helped keep the rally going by showing economic expansion from mid-October through mid-November with "numerous reports of hiring"...DJTA +2.1, DJUA -1.3, SOX +3.8, XOI -1.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 2312/1051, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2123/1020

[54anickel]

79. The Containment Area (interesting graphs in this one)

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

Wishing Wells...As you know, according to the Fed, inflationary pressures remain “well contained”. According to many a Street strategist and many of the favored blue chip economists, domestic inflationary pressures remain “well contained”. Unfortunately, if you dig behind the headlines of a number of economic stats of the moment, inflationary pressures don’t appear to remain well contained at all. In fact, one of the rationales China gave for raising rates a few weeks back is that inflationary pressures are rising in the country. It's clearly evident. Of course, that’s just their problem, right?

We want to explore some current data regarding inflationary pressures. Clearly the potential for shifting inflationary expectations over time has direct implications for fixed income investments moving forward. Implications for the general level of interest rates within the context of a highly levered economy. Early next year, we plan on devoting at least an entire subscriber discussion to investment themes we believe will be important as we move into 2005. As you'd expect, this will involve discussion regarding the dollar, the rate of change in profit growth and profit margins, etc. But what we believe will clearly be one of the important themes as we move into the new year will be the juxtaposition between currently quiescent inflation perceptions or expectations, as fostered and encouraged by such luminaries as the Fed members, and the ultimate reality of the numbers that are to unfold. In the following set of charts and commentary, we want to explore a bit deeper the actual numbers that are now available in the public domain relating to the current reality of what we consider to be heightened inflationary pressures. We know folks like Bill Gross are yakking about hedonic adjustments. In fact, as you probably know, Kurt Richebacher brought the subject of hedonic adjustments in CPI data to light a half decade back. Is it a real and important issue? You bet it is. But it's not new news. Although the mainstream largely chooses to ignore the issue of hedonic price adjustments and manipulation, it's not an undiscovered phenomenon by any means. OK, fine. Rather than ranting about the anti-inflationary illusion borne of hedonic adjustments in the public inflation data, we'll simply use the actually reported data itself in looking for the birthplace and breeding ground of real economy inflationary pressures. Because as the facts now stand, hedonic adjustments or not, the drumbeats of heightened inflationary pressures are rumbling. Can you hear them?

The Containment Area...We'll try to move through the graphs and commentary quickly. We believe that what you see below is quite suggestive of inflationary pressures building as we speak. Quite simply, we only need to look just below the headlines to find them. In terms of the financial markets, what is most important to us is the real potential for shifting perceptions and changing expectations regarding inflation as we move into the new year. For as you know, these are the swing factors that can and do influence financial asset prices in a meaningful manner over time. Let's get right to the anecdotes of building inflationary pressures as we see them.

PPI Intermediate Materials Index

As you most likely remember, the unexpected and well above consensus 1.7% PPI headline number recently reported for October, which of course annualizes at 20.4%, was simply dismissed as being totally related to food and energy. Mere bothers more than anything else, right? Although we have not brought up the subject for many a moon, we always check in on the PPI intermediate materials subcomponent of the report. It gives us a good feel for what domestic businesses are experiencing in terms of real input cost pressures. The types of pressures that China is apparently directly experiencing at the moment. The year over year rate of change in PPI intermediate materials came in at 9%. It’s the largest year over year growth rate number since 1981!!!

more...

[54anickel]

82. WTF!!! The buck's falling over the cliff New low of 81.38

Last trade 81.40 Change -0.23 (-0.28%)

Settle 81.56 Settle Time 15:38

Open 81.75 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.88 Low 81.38

[54anickel]

83. Heh-heh, still dropping......new low 81.31

Last trade 81.35 Change -0.47 (-0.57%)

Settle 81.56 Settle Time 21:36

Open 81.45 Previous Close 81.82

High 81.52 Low 81.31

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-12-01 22:19:27 ET