STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 9 December

[ozymandius]

Thursday December 9, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 42 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 363 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 52 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1113
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 8, 2004

Dow... 10,494.23 +53.65 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq... 2,126.11 +11.45 (+0.54%)
S&P 500... 1,182.81 +5.74 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.13% -0.09 (-2.22%)
Gold future... 438.70 -15.00 (-3.42%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.27 Change +0.37 (+0.45%)

Settle 81.90 Settle Time 23:36

Open 82.07 Previous Close 81.90

High 82.37 Low 81.74

Overnight debt/forex repor

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=aapnew20041293041

excerpt:

More notably, indirect bidders who are thought to be in large part the central banks of other countries, snapped up 64.9 per cent of the total $15 billion sale. However there has been no evidence of the central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market that might generate demand for US government debt.

There were no market-moving US economic data releases on Wednesday and gains on Wall Street apeared not to drag on bnond prices.

<snip>

In the forex market the US dollar extended the rally begun in Asian hours yesterday through to early New York trade overnight. Itremains higher against other currencies as well as the Australian dollar, despite pullback from its highs.

The US dollar is up by 0.65 yen since late yesterday, after gaining 0.85 in the preceding 24 hours, while the euro is down by another USD0.0017 after a drop of 0.0072. The pound has pulled back five and half US cents overnight, more than reversing the previous day's four and half cent rally.

There was nothing specific prompting the decline and rumours of central bank intervention have not been confirmed. The rally seems to be mainly the result of profit-taking on short dollar positions creating a cascade effect, flushing traders out of their positions.

Recent data from the futures market show that traders had made big bets against the US dollar and in that situation such sharp moves are par for the course.

...more...

ECB says disorderly US current account adjustment would threaten global growth

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1102587932-9e32d306-19631

FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank said a disorderly adjustment of the US current account deficit would pose a significant threat to global growth

And while the recent decline in oil prices is positive for the world economy, any renewed upturn in oil prices would also create risks for growth, it said

"There are significant downside risks in the form of a renewed increase in oil prices or a disorderly adjustment of existing imbalances in the global economy," the ECB said in its December monthly bulletin

A disorderly adjustment of the large US current account deficit would be expected to lead to a further sharp fall in the dollar, according to economists

<snip>

It noted that the dollar has drawn no support from positive US consumer spending data, probably because of concerns that this could lead to a widening of the growth differential between the US and other major economies. This would in turn lead to a further increase in the US current account deficit, it said

...more...

It's MaeveDay!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

38. Bit more on yesterday's moves and auction

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

The dollar staged a broad rally in early Wednesday Asian trade gaining 2.5 cents against the euro and 3 yen against the Japanese currency, before later paring nearly ½ of those gains. A combination of pre Fed meeting profit-taking and fresh declines in oil prices encouraged traders to unwind short dollar positions. Oil prices’ 20% retreat to a 6-month low of $41.48 per barrel has also helped trigger the dollar’s jump, especially that the currency had hardly showed any reaction in past oil bounces. Yesterday’s decisions by the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia to not raise interest rates were of no surprise, but definitely highlighted the central banks’ growing concern with the appreciation in their currencies and bring up the topic of the dollar’s tumble to the fore.

Strongest foreign participation in Treasury Auction

In another dose of positive dollar news, today's 5-year Treasury note auction of $15 billion drew a record high 65% participation by indirect bidders, which are usually a proxy of foreign central bank participation. This is not only higher than the 44% seen in last month's 5-year auction, but the highest foreign participation since the data have been made available in summer 2003. The auction is supportive for the US dollar as it stabilizes emerging fears that foreign central banks are tempering their demand for US treasuries. The news pushed the 10-year note yield to a 3-week low of 4.12%.

Next week’s expected rate hike from the Fed is also dissuading traders to hold on to some of their dollar shorts. The 25-bp rate hike to 2.25% in the fed funds rate would lift US rates above their Eurozone counterparts for the first time since March 2001. Another particularly dollar positive aspect of next week’s FOMC meeting is the overwhelming expectation that tightening will take place in subsequent meetings as well as next week’s.

Euro retraces ½ of the slide

more...

[54anickel]

44. Dollar climbs for second straight session

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/05d79b4e-49d3-11d9-b065-00000e2511c8.html

The US dollar firmed for the second straight session on Thursday, bolstering the sharp gains of Wednesday.


The dollar rose 0.2 per cent to Y104.88 versus the yen and held steady at $1.3273 against the euro as the market debated whether the bounce was merely a correction caused by profit taking or a sign that relative growth and interest rate expectations, as well as the twin US deficits, were once again driving the market.

Paul Chertkow, head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, took the former view. "We doubt that the current correction of the dollar will prove sustained. It appears attributable to a reduction of market risk ahead of the holiday season, not to a shift in market focus from structural problems to cyclical developments," he said.

However Hans Redeker, global head of FX strategy at BNP Paribas, predicted further selective gains against "the high yielders and commodity currencies, where there has been a high level of speculative participation recently". The greenback pushed higher to C$1.2248 and $0.7520 against its Canadian and Australian namesakes on Wednesday.

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief FX strategist at UBS, argued that although the dollar remained in a downtrend, the speed of its decline since October meant "the risks are now more skewed towards the market consolidating rather than pushing the dollar significantly lower from here".

snip>

Mr Mohi-uddin speculated that central banks were likely to be recycling their forex intervention proceeds. China said yesterday its reserves rose at least $25.5bn to $540bn in October, while Russia said its forex and gold reserves increased by $4.5bn to a record $121.6bn in a week and South Korea and Malaysia are also accumulating reserves at rapid rates.

more...

[54anickel]

56. Hmmm, Hey UIA, do you suppose this had anything to do with that US$

rally that started yesterday?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid=%7BA2113B74-FDDE-4A52-A9C3-2BC70220D961%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

Pimco's Gross questions U.S. Triple-A bond rating: rpt By Steve Goldstein
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- William Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., is questioning the U.S. government's Triple-A bond rating, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal Tuesday. The rating would "suggest that it can pay its bills over a long period of time in a stable currency. That is no longer true," Gross said, according to the report. The report added that debt rating agencies are not close to downgrading U.S. debt.

[UpInArms]

2. Today's Reports:

Dec 9 8:30 AM
Export Prices ex-ag. Nov
report -
briefing.com NA
market NA
last report 1.0%
revised -

Dec 9 8:30 AM
Import Prices ex-oil Nov
report -
briefing.com NA
market NA
last report 2.7%
revised -

Dec 9 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 12/04
report -
briefing.com 335K
market 335K
last report 349K
revised -

Dec 9 10:00 AM
Wholesale Inventories Oct
report -
briefing.com 0.8%
market 0.5%
last report 0.5%
revised -

[UpInArms]

5. reports coming in

8:29am 12/09/04 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 8,000 TO 357,000

8:29am 12/09/04 U.S. 4-WK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 4,750 TO 341,250

8:29am 12/09/04 U.S. NOV. IMPORT PRICES UP 0.2% VS FORECAST UNCHANGED

8:29am 12/09/04 U.S. NOV. OIL IMPORT PRICES DOWN 2.6%

8:29am 12/09/04 U.S. NOV. NON-OIL IMPORT PRICES UP 0.7%

[UpInArms]

17. Wholesale Inventories up 1.1% vs .5% expected

10:00am 12/09/04 U.S. OCT. WHOLESALE NONDURABLE INVENTORIES UP 0.1%

10:00am 12/09/04 U.S. OCT. WHOLESALE DURABLE INVENTORIES UP 1.7%

10:00am 12/09/04 U.S. OCT WHOLESALE INVENTORY/SALES RATIO STEADY AT 1.15

10:00am 12/09/04 U.S. OCT. WHOLESALE SALES UP 1.6%

10:00am 12/09/04 U.S. OCT WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 1.1% VS 0.5% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

19. U.S. wholesale inventories up (unexpected) 1.1%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE0A20D8D%2DDBCE%2D4AE4%2DA6A1%2D61B5761FDD4D%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose an unexpected 1.1 percent in October, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.

Seasonally adjusted sales at wholesalers increased 1.6 percent.

The inventory-to-sales ratio remained at a very tight 1.15, slightly higher than the record low 1.13 reached in May. The typical wholesaler had 35 days' worth of sales on hand in the warehouse. See the full report.

Economists were expecting a much smaller accumulation of inventories of 0.5 percent, according to the CBS MarketWatch survey.

September's sales were revised higher to a 0.8 percent gain from 0.6 percent earlier. September's inventory gain was revised higher to 0.6 percent from 0.5 percent earlier.

...more...

More "surprised" economists?

How in the world do they get paid for their lousy "predictions"?

Kick 'em in the junk.

[UpInArms]

6. U.S. weekly jobless claims rise unexpectedly (357,000)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38330.3542173148-829271269&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of people filing for state unemployment benefits for the first time unexpectedly rose 8,000 to 357,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had forecast claims would fall to 334,000. The four-week moving average of new claims rose by 4,750 to 341,250.

[UpInArms]

7. Import prices rise 0.2% in November

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38330.354276088-829271327&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Tempered by falling oil prices, the prices of goods imported into the United States rose just 0.2 percent in November, the Labor Department said Thursday. It's the fifth consecutive monthly rise but the smallest increase since June. Prices of imported oil fell 2.6 percent after spiking a revised 11.6 percent in October, the largest monthly increase since before the war in Iraq. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had been expecting overall prices to remain unchanged in November.

[UpInArms]

9. filling in the report blanks

Dec 9 8:30 AM
Export Prices ex-ag. Nov
report 0.4%
briefing.com NA
market NA
last report 1.0%
revised -

Dec 9 8:30 AM
Import Prices ex-oil Nov
report 0.7%
briefing.com NA
market NA
last report 2.7%
revised -

Dec 9 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 12/04
report 357K
briefing.com 335K
market 335K
last report 349K
revised -

[UpInArms]

3. OPEC Warns Oil Supply Cuts Needed for '05

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7039858

CAIRO (Reuters) - OPEC oil producers said on Thursday that Friday's ministerial meeting would focus on cutting back oversupply to support falling prices and that producers would have to reduce output quotas early next year.

Ministers from Libya, the UAE and Kuwait urged the group to cut back on excess supply that has pulled prices to four-month lows. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said he came to the meeting with an open mind.

"I think we have to cut off all our overproduction," said Kuwait Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah. "I think over the last six weeks the prices were a surprise for everybody."

Producers fear rising inventories in consuming nations could further lower prices which have already dropped by $13, or nearly 25 percent since late October.

<snip>

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been producing at the highest level in 25 years to meet rising demand in the United States and China and compensate for disruptions to supply from Iraq.

...more...

[54anickel]

32. Saudis seek oil stocks boost ahead of Opec cuts

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/bd3fe114-4952-11d9-81c7-00000e2511c8.html

Saudi Arabia, the most powerful member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said ahead of Friday’s meeting of Opec that global oil stocks needed to increase before Opec would have to cut production, a stance that puts it at odds with most of its fellow oil cartel members.

Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, said there was no need to rein in production as peak winter demand in the northern hemisphere had not started. “The winter is coming, our band is still $22-$28 , so why should we do anything?” Mr Naimi said.

Mr Naimi's comments, which pushed oil prices to four-month lows, were followed by a weaker than expected US crude inventory report. Although the report showed US imports were at their second highest level, this was overshadowed by a weaker than expected inventory rise for petroleum and distillates, which includes diesel and heating oil.

snip>

Opec ministers from Iran, Venezuela, Qatar, Libya and United Arab Emirates have all said in the past week that they want to focus on paring down excess supply above Opec's official ceiling at the meeting.

Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, Kuwait’s oil minister, said on Thursday: “I think we have to cut off all our overproduction,” adding that he thought the price falls of the past six weeks “were a surprise for everybody”.

The 10 Opec members with quotas produced about 28m barrels a day last month, about 1m b/d above the self-imposed limit.

more...

[RawMaterials]

4. Yen falls vs. dollar after weak data

The yen extended declines against the dollar on Thursday after Japan's machinery orders data showed an unexpected fall in October, highlighting concerns about the slow-down of the world's second-largest economy.

U.S. trade Wednesday

The dollar gained traction on Wednesday, as its surge against commodity-linked currencies drove the greenback up sharply from multiyear lows.

But the greenback's gain was pared modestly in the wake of late-day news that President Bush has asked Treasury Secretary John Snow to remain on the job. Snow accepted.

The euro did improve to around $1.3330 from $1.3307 ahead of the Snow news. The dollar remained up 0.7 percent against the common currency in late U.S. trading Wednesday compared to Tuesday, when the euro hit a record high above $1.34.

The dollar was quoted at 103.97 yen, up 1.1 percent. The dollar hit five-year lows against its Japanese counterpart to start the week.

..yada..yada SNOWJOB..but no real snow here and its what dec 9 funny i thought global warming was not going on. (ohio 15 years ago we had snow at the end of oct)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Currencies&siteid=mktw&dist=

[UpInArms]

8. Hasbro says job cuts reflect fickleness of toy business

http://www.projo.com/business/content/projo_20041209_has09x.1528a4.html

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

PAWTUCKET -- Job cuts made this week at Hasbro Inc. don't signal long-term trouble for the nation's number-two toymaker, the company's chief executive officer said yesterday, but reflect the changing desires of the kids who play with toys.

"These kids are leaving the traditional toy aisle at a younger age and they're leaving it faster," said Alfred F. Verrecchia, Hasbro's president and CEO. "We're competing for kids' time and the spending of their allowances and dollars."

<snip>

"We're making more of the My Little Ponies and not enough of the GameBoy products," Verrecchia said.

Company executives apparently decided that some of Hasbro's workers didn't have the skills to address that shifting emphasis.

On Tuesday, the company laid off about 125 workers. The job cuts came in a number of divisions, including toys, games, international and corporate. About 90 people lost their jobs in Rhode Island, the majority in Hasbro's toy group.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Record imports mean more layoffs at Wheatland Tube Co.

http://www.wnep.com/Global/story.asp?S=2669710

SHARON, Pa. Wheatland Tube Company in Sharon has laid off 58 workers since last month and it may lay off 149 more by February because of record imports in the steel pipe industry.

The company has filed notice with the state labor officials that as many as 207 of its 450 employees could be laid off by February Seventh if things don't improve.Bill Kerins, Wheatland's vice president, says the layoffs could last six months or more.Kerins says he sees no light at the end of the tunnel.

...very short newsblurb...

[UpInArms]

11. Domtar cuts 790 jobs as weak dollar bites

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38330.3840519676-829274676&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Domtar Inc (DTC) said Thursday it will close indefinitely part of its operations at its Cornwall paper mill, in a bid to mitigate the negative impact of the weak U.S. dollar on its business. The move will result in the loss of 390 jobs. In addition, the Montreal-based company said it will eliminate a further 400 jobs across its operations in Canada and the United States by the end of 2005. The reduction in its labor force is part of Domtar's previously announced objective of improving the company's profitability by $200 million. Shares of Domtar fell 0.9 percent, to $12.01 at the close of trading Wednesday.

[UpInArms]

12. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.0. Still little enthusiasm in futures trading, as current indications continue to suggest a lower open for the cash market... A 1.5% decline in Japan's Nikkei, which fell to a five-week low on Thursday on the heels of poor machinery orders data, and a report that industrial production in China grew (+14.8%) at its slowest pace in 18 months have also acted as limiting factors

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.5. Initial claims rose by 8,000 to 357,000, which was slightly higher than the consensus estimate of 335K... Futures market remains unchanged in response; overall indications still point toward a lower open for the indices

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting the cash market will start the session on a lower note... Factors contributing to the weakness have been another rise in crude oil prices ($42.33/bbl +0.39) ahead of Friday's OPEC meeting and warnings from two leading chipmakers... Both Xilinx (XLNX) and Altera (ALTR) cut revenue forecasts citing large chip inventories and declining sales into communications markets... Weekly jobless claims (consensus 335K) will be out at 8:30 ET

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight and is breaking out below initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1604.35. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1591.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 12.50 pts. at 1598.50 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it extends Tuesday's decline. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1182.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1171 is the next downside target. The March S&P 500 Index was down 4.30 pts. at 1182 as of 5:55 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

13. DOE fuel import projections

9:30am 12/09/04 LNG IMPORTS TO RISE TO 6.4 TRLN CUBIC FEET IN 2025: DOE

9:30am 12/09/04 NATURAL GAS USE TO HIT 31 TRLN CUBIC FEET IN 2025: DOE

9:30am 12/09/04 NATURAL GAS TO RISE $5.30/MCF IN 2005: DOE

9:30am 12/09/04 OIL IMPORTS TO RISE TO 68% IN 2025: DOE

9:30am 12/09/04 ENERGY DEMAND TO RISE TO 133.2 QUAD BTU BY 2025: DOE

(edited for html)

[UpInArms]

16. U.S. Energy Dept sees growing reliance on imported oil

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38330.4048428588-829277098&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. will become increasingly reliant on imported oil in the next two decades, according to the annual energy outlook released Thursday by the Energy Information Agency. Oil imports are expected to grow to 68 percent of U.S. consumption by 2025, the study found. Demand for energy is expected to rise to 133.2 quadrillion Btu by 2025, the EIA said. Natural gas consumption will hit 31 trillion cubic feet and liquid natural gas imports will rise to 6.4 trillion cubic feet by 2025. The price of natural gas is expected to rise to $5.30/Mcf next year.

[UpInArms]

23. Energy Dept posts 88 bln cubic foot fall in natgas stks

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38330.4400365046-829281121&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The Energy Department said U.S. natural-gas stocks fell by 88 billion cubic feet for the week ended Dec. 3. Analysts at Enercast.com expected a fall of 59 billion. Total stocks now stand at 3.211 trillion cubic feet, up 227 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level, and up 343 billion cubic feet from the five-year average, the government data said. January natural gas is up 22.7 cents, or 3.3 percent, at $6.91 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

[UpInArms]

14. 9:33 EST markets are open

Dow 10,463.93 -30.30 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,109.28 -16.83 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,178.82 -3.99 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.151% +0.019

NYSE Volume 26,617,000
Nasdaq Volume 97,360,000

[UpInArms]

15. General Motors Europe Axes 12,000 Jobs

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7040691

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - General Motors Europe (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) will chop 12,000 jobs over two years -- around a fifth of its workforce -- to lop 500 million euros ($673 million) from costs at the loss-making business, it said on Thursday.

The steps aim to address chronic losses in the region by the world's biggest carmaker, which last made a profit in Europe in 1999 and sees no quick upturn in a market marked by sluggish sales and intense pricing pressure.

"We have an agreement. (German unit Adam) Opel will cut 10,000 jobs in Germany. General Motors will cut 12,000 jobs overall in Europe," a spokesman at GM Europe headquarters in Zurich said.

He said GM would try to prevent forced layoffs, but it would only be clear in a few months whether this would be possible.

"We have not decided on any plant closures at this time," he added. "The intent is to avoid plant closures, but there is no guarantee."

...more...

[JNelson6563]

18. 10:00 update

Greetings Marketeers! :hi:

Just checking in before I head out to tend to some party business. Skimed the posted articles, things lookr ather grim I'd say. Here's a sanpshot of the markets for 10:00:

Dow 10,467.55 -26.68 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,107.63 -18.48 (-0.87%)
S&P 500 1,178.54 -4.27 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.151% +0.019

Wouldn't surprise me if the PPT was hard at work to keep these numbers at a minimum but then again, I'm an ol' cynic.

Well check back later, time permitting. Hope everyone's got their shorts in order. ;-)

Julie--still long on gold

[UpInArms]

20. 10:24 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,430.90 -63.33 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,100.79 -25.32 (-1.19%)
S&P 500 1,174.88 -7.93 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.136% +0.004

NYSE Volume 317,988,000
Nasdaq Volume 526,214,000

10:00AM: Still not a great deal of conviction as a bearish bias remains firmly intact... The Labor Department's disappointing weekly new claims data has served to augment the negative tone... Jobless claims rose 8K to 357K - well above the consensus estimate calling for an expected decline of 14K to 335K... This is the highest reading since mid September and marks two weeks of above-trend claims... However, the report represents only one week of data as more weight is usually given to the monthy nonfarm payrolls data... October wholesale inventories came in at +1.1%, above expectations of +0.5%...NYSE Adv/Dec 771/1800, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 645/1827

9:40AM: A noticeably lower open for stocks this morning, with declines in the broader averages being amplified by weakness in semiconductor... The chip sector (-3.0%) has extended yesterday's 2.1% drubbing in the early going following warnings from several semiconductor companies... Xilinx (XLNX 28.35 -2.38) cut revenue forecasts to $370.8-382.9 mln (previous forecasts were $379.1-395.2 mln), citing large chip inventories while Altera (ALTR 20.41 -1.79) also trimmed sales expectations due to weak demand for wireless and networking access products, especially in Japan and Europe...

Separately, the Commerce Department will report October wholesale inventories (consensus +0.5%) at 10:00 ET...

[54anickel]

21. Snow, Embraced by Bush, Still Faces Doubts About Effectiveness

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a4g8jAkl56iU&refer=us

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- When President George W. Bush gathered advisers in the Oval Office on Nov. 29 to discuss how to overhaul Social Security, he told Treasury Secretary John Snow he wanted to talk to him.

That follow-up conversation didn't happen until yesterday. Then, finally, the two men spoke after a weekly luncheon of the administration economic team, according to White House spokesman Scott McClellan. When they did, the president asked Snow to stay in office, ending widespread speculation he was about to be ousted. Within three hours, Treasury officials were toasting Snow with champagne in his office, two years to the day since Bush first asked him to serve.

``I was deeply honored by the action of the president in asking me to continue,'' Snow told the audience at an awards ceremony in Washington last night. ``I look forward to working with him on an agenda to keep the economy growing.''

The meeting ended an excruciating period for Snow, the 65- year-old former chief executive officer of Jacksonville, Florida- based CSX Corp., the third-biggest U.S. railroad company. Articles in the Washington Post, New York Times and Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed administration officials, all reported that he was likely to be replaced, while White House spokesmen refused to say whether Bush wanted him to stay.

Even now, the president's belated embrace doesn't erase doubts by some economists and former government officials who question how much longer Snow will remain, suggesting that his credibility has been damaged by the extended period of uncertainty over his fate.

Clouded Tenure

more...

[54anickel]

22. More GLD ETF conspiracy talk

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/murphy/2004/1208.html

BOMBSHELL!
World Gold Council's ETF Dumps 15 Tonnes of Bullion
Right BEFORE Price Collapse
by Bill Murphy, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
December 8, 2004

If there ever was a sequence of events to prove GATA’s importance, it is what we are witnessing at the moment. Let’s get right to it! This email from a Café member corporate executive came to me early last evening:

This smells to high heaven!

StreetTRACKS inventory went down by 15 tons in a fairly even gold market. I would guess they used it to slow the gold rise!
Bix


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bells, whistles, and alarms went off when I received that email. Not quite understanding exactly how this ETF works and where the ETF report came from, I circulated the email to colleagues to verify its veracity. Before I received responses, this Reuters gold report surfaced this morning:

LONDON, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - Gold slid sharply in Europe on Wednesday, losing more than $7 at one point, as investors bought the dollar and sold commodities into the year-end.

Traders also noted a hefty drop overnight in the quantity of gold held in trust on the new U.S.-listed gold exchange-traded fund (ETF), which did nothing to help sentiment.

The U.S. ETF jumped from 103 to 88 tonnes overnight so somebody dumped a whole load yesterday and rather set the tone for today.

more...

[54anickel]

36. And another....

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/batchelor/batchelor120804.html

David, I disagree with you on almost every point in your defence of GLD. I have been in financial markets for 40 years and the prospectus work on GLD should never have been passed. The bar inventory has been compiled by amateurs, and you have no reason to defend this listing. Please go back to the prospectus and find the place where it says that there is sufficient gold in the trust to cover all fund inflows plus market variations, less the management fee. It is not there.

Little-known to many, the trustee made its own news release at the time of the commencement of trading of GLD, and announced that it is an ADR-like vehicle using a "proprietary trading approach." This is the same outfit which consented to a finding of money-laundering. That is to say, by their own publicity, not an asset-backed trust, but one which, I assume, trails or anticipates market movements, and which from the "proprietary" aspect, uses derivatives or risk-management software. One day, many of these programs will be on the wrong side a major move. Or we will find that the insiders are front-running the units in the open market, knowing the data output of the model. We can expect some extreme volatility in the bullion scene as a result of the GLD trading model, and not the stability you would like to see.

Then the serial number issue alone would have caused the trading suspension of any less-visible entity. The "addresses" you mention of the custodians are the names of entities with multiple locations, rather than addresses; no actual physical locations (as with the Perth Mint securities) are listed. Central Fund gives an actual bank address in Toronto, for a more solid example. If I attended a bankruptcy hearing and the respondent said they had money in "The Royal Bank" that would be no use to me. Nor should it be for an investor.

The serial number sequence rings my bell. I doubt that there has been a physical asset assembly for this security.

bit more...

[54anickel]

39. Is a gold correction coming? (From 12/6 - fun to look back with hindsight)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/dec062004.html

On August 15 of this year I sent out a special bulletin to my subscribers recommending the purchase of gold stocks. I believed at the time that gold had bottomed and would rally into the end of the year.

When I bought I had a plan to sell - I either would sell if gold and the stocks made a climactic exhaustion top or if the stocks began to lag the price of gold. The latter began to happen this past week. Although gold and the XAU both went higher on Friday, the fact that the stocks are now lagging gold tells me that a top is likely being formed.

The chart below shows you the price of the XAU divided by the price of gold. When it is rising the stocks are outperforming the gold price and when it is falling the gold price is leading the stocks. As you can see the stocks began to lead gold in August and started to lag gold last week.

more...

[54anickel]

24. Dresser retirees scramble for health insurance

This has been confusing for my F-i-L (and others). They got the letter discussed in this article last year, but retired from Dresser long before Hellaburnin bought them out. The union and the HR people at Dresser told him it shouldn't apply to him and it must have been some kind of mistake. Still hasn't gotten a straight answer.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2938861

John Martin is frustrated. Really frustrated.

ADVERTISEMENT

His 74-year-old father, Edmund, has early signs of Alzheimer's. His 35-year-old brother has severe muscular dystrophy and receives 24-hour care at home.

They have health insurance through Halliburton — for now. But on Dec. 31, that coverage may come to a sudden halt.

Edmund Martin, along with 4,000 other Dresser Industries retirees, is hoping that U.S. District Judge Lynn Hughes will rule that Halliburton, which purchased Dresser in 1998, must continue to pay the insurance premiums they believe were required by the merger agreement.

more...

[UpInArms]

25. Rockford, IL Textron plant closing delayed

http://www.wtvo.com/Global/story.asp?S=2670438&nav=0RePU0jN

Rockford, Illinois- Workers at one local company received some good news about their jobs.

Back in October workers at the Textron plant on Samuelson Rd. in Rockford were given notice that they would be losing their jobs as of December 17.

Textron now says they will still close down the plant but not until the end of March 2005 at the earliest.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. PieHole Alert

10:47am 12/09/04 BUSH PLEDGES NO PAYROLL TAX HIKE FOR SOCIAL SECURITY

10:45am 12/09/04 BUSH: SOCIAL SECURITY WILL NOT CHANGE FOR NEAR-RETIREES

[RawMaterials]

27. Crude Oil Rises as OPEC Ministers Call for a Production Cut

Delegates from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Libya and Venezuela said OPEC should reduce output to boost prices. Oil in New York has slipped 24 percent from a record of $55.67 on Oct. 25. Prices also rose on concern that U.S. heating-oil supplies are insufficient to meet peak demand. Yesterday, the government reported a smaller-than-expected gain in heating-oil supplies.

``We're nervous going into the meeting, which isn't unusual,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy risk management with Fimat USA in New York. ``There is also residual disappointment about yesterday's heating oil inventory numbers. We still have a deficit and it will be getting colder next week.''

In London, the January Brent crude-oil futures contract rose 69 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $39.38 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent futures have declined 24 percent since reaching $51.95 on Oct. 27, the highest since the contract began in 1988.

`Overproduction'

``Everybody is looking to cut overproduction,'' which is equal to about 1 million barrels a day, the Kuwaiti minister, Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah, told reporters in Cairo, where the meeting will occur. ``We have to study the situation very seriously'' as prices drop.





http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a2.79MRo3mNM&refer=top_world_news

??Peek oil anyone??

[54anickel]

28. U.S. import prices move higher

http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/09/news/economy/import_prices.reut/index.htm

Hike of 0.2% in November slightly exceeds expectations as increases in non-petroleum prices surge.
December 9, 2004: 9:42 AM EST



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The price of goods imported into the United States in November rose 0.2 percent, slightly more than expected, a Labor Department report showed Thursday, as increases in non-petroleum prices hit a 10-month high.

Wall Street had forecast a milder 0.1 percent advance following a revised 1.6 percent gain in October. This was initially reported as up 1.5 percent. Export prices were up 0.3 percent, compared with 0.7 percent in October.

Non-petroleum import prices increased 0.7 percent last month after falling 0.1 percent in October, marking the largest increase since January's 0.8 percent gain. During the last 12 months, this series has risen 3.4 percent, the strongest annual gain since September 1995.

snip>

Import prices can be influenced heavily by the foreign exchange value of the dollar. But the currency's two-year slide has so far had only a modest impact, with stiff competition despite a widening economic expansion keeping costs in check.

more...

[ozymandius]

29. Finally! WrapUp by Scott Middleton

Gold and Metals Plunge, as Dollar Gains

To probably no one's surprise the US Dollar rallied today sending Gold and other commodity speculators running for the exits. Gold for February delivery plunged $15, or 3.3 percent, to $438.70 an ounce on the Comex. Silver fell 9.4 percent, the most since April. The price of Gold had been fueled over the last several weeks by the ongoing slide in the US Dollar, but over the last couple of day’s concerns of currency intervention has begun to slow the frenzied buying; now we know why. As a colleague has put it, “Its funny how the dollar rally coincided with a major US Government Debt auction. Mike Hartman has written several times in the past how the rallies have coincided with planned auctions.

Regardless of these actions, weakness in the precious metals sector as we saw today provide opportunities for investors (not traders) to add to their positions. The US Dollar still has what we believe to be some more oversold conditions to work off from here, but the move today was healthy for the long term Gold Bulls.

Crude Oil shrugged off its recent price declines today as inventory figures for both Crude and Distillates increased at a less than expected pace during the past week. The price of Crude Oil slipped below $41/barrel briefly in early morning trading only to rally from those levels and close at $41.94/barrel on the NYMEX. OPEC countries meet on Friday to discuss possible production cuts in order to help slow the supply and support the higher prices. At this point one Commodity Trader was quoted today as saying that price of energy from this point will depend on the weather. If it gets bitterly cold we’ll see higher prices from here and vice versa should this winter in the Northeast and Midwest turn out to be mild.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

30. 11:30 numbers and blather

U.S. stocks sharply lower as tech slides, crude climbs

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks were broadly lower Thursday morning led by steep declines in technology after Xilinx and Altera cut their sales targets for the current quarter, refreshing worries over building inventories in the semiconductor industry.

-cut-

"I think the high tech news is the excuse but the reality is the market is short-term extended and this pullback is healthy," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards.

He noted that there have only been two days of pull back after a month of a good market and expects the momentum he sees to carry markets higher into early to mid-January.

"We still have a lot of money on the sidelines and I think that Santa Claus will show up this year -- scrooge will not," Goldman said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041209/8fb342e4bbec60adb687a46f7bf42bfa_1.html

[ozymandius]

31. #s

Dow 10,440.94 -53.29 (-0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,102.33 -23.78 (-1.12%)
S&P 500 1,175.49 -7.32 (-0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 4.118% -0.014
NYSE Volume 584,931,000
Nasdaq Volume 896,118,000

[JNelson6563]

33. 11:26 update

Dow 10,443.53 -50.70 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,104.25 -21.86 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 1,176.21 -6.60 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.12% -0.012


So the trained chimp promises that those close enough to touch retirement won't see a change in benefits. What about the rest of us??


Julie

[TrogL]

34. Loonie death knell

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s

High 0.82300 Low 0.81430

It may not be all that bad. CBC's economics reporters are calling for a 0.75 loonie because the high loonie was bad for business.

[54anickel]

35. What can I say except, "Got gold?" (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty120904.html

snip>

Speaking of money, last week Total Federal credit shot up another $5.6 billion, the Treasury printed up another $4 billion in actual cash, foreign central banks bought up another $5.8 billion of US debt, as everybody tries desperately to keep this embarrassing economic monstrosity from collapsing under its own ponderous weight.

snip>

- Microsoft is dispensing a whopping $32 billion to shareholders. Of course, I am convinced that they are only doing this as a result of some extortion from the government, which is desperate to get money into the government, to be spent into the economy. Tom Dyson of Daily Reckoning has looked at this and said, "The total sum that Microsoft will dispense to shareholders is $32 billion. But Liquidity Trim Tabs estimates that only $22 billion to $25 billion of this special dividend will find its way back into the equity market.

"The Microsoft special dividend will hit investors' accounts on December 2," Trim Tabs continues, "but some institutional investors could begin to spend the money a few days earlier using existing cash or debt. Our best guess is that between 25% and 33% of the reinvested $22 billion to $25 billion - between $5 billion and $8 billion - will be reinvested during the first week of December. The rest will probably flow into equities during the rest of December."

snip>

..."The Japanese, meanwhile, watch in horror as the dollar drops. They have 800 billion worth of dollars in their central bank vault. Each penny the dollar loses, takes $8 billion off their balance sheet." Each penny!

snip>

Drew Matus, who is an economist at Lehman Brothers, writes "The savings rate fell to 0.2 percent. That means for a person earning $40,000 per year, they are saving $80. Put another way, that person is saving a little over $1.50 per week."

snip>

National Review Online has apparently read the homework assignment, too, and they write "Those advocating a weak dollar to redirect trade flows do not have history on their side. While a depreciating currency is assumed to boost exports and shut off the demand for imports, this is only the first effect. Eventually a weak currency invites inflation, which neutralizes the effect of the lower exchange rate. Persistent currency depreciation has never brought lasting prosperity to any government in the history of the world. If the dollar continues to depreciate it will bring higher inflation, higher interest rates, lower real growth rates, and a reduced standard of living for most wage earners."

snip>

But whether or not it is a Mogambo Day present or not, the fall in the price of oil is nonetheless a gift by Saudi Arabia for some reason, who are leading this charge, and who are paradoxically pumping more of a wasting asset (because all oil is finite in quantity) of their only asset (unless sand is a new asset category that I haven't heard about) at a cheaper and cheaper price both in nominal terms (dollars per barrel), but also especially in real terms (as the purchasing power of those dollars falls). What in the hell could they be thinking?

I mean, here is the situation as I see it, and I'm pretty sober right now, which ought to help a lot. Oil, which is the only thing they have that anybody wants to buy, which they are also rapidly running out of, at a time of increasing demand, at the limits of world refining capacity, they are now selling oil at lower and lower prices! And, to top it off, they are getting paid with a currency that is becoming ever more worthless! Wow! Hey, Saudi guys! What in the hell do they TEACH you in those schools of yours?

much more...

[54anickel]

37. December 2004 FX Forecasts

http://www.forexnews.com/AI/default.asp

NOTE:
Today’s dollar bounce has been the result of no single particular fundamental catalyst except of profit-taking occurring in a relatively data-vacant day.

We warned in our Sunday note that we could see some dollar interest late in the week ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, which is expected to lift short-term US interest rates above those of the Eurozone. One particularly dollar positive aspect of next week’s FOMC meeting is the overwhelm expectation that rate hike will take place in subsequent meetings as well as next week’s.

Indeed, yesterday’s decisions by the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia to NOT raise interest rates were of no surprise, but definitely highlighted the central banks’ growing concern with the appreciation in their currencies. This mini dollar bounce is also overdue considering the sharp pull-back in oil, which had engendered little dollar reaction up until today.

Also watch today’s $15 billion Treasury auction of 5-year notes, and the extent to which foreign investors will subscribe to the offering, which has stood at a bullish 35-40% so far this year.

EURUSD: Cheap Talk vs. Cheap Dollar

We expect the euro to edge its way past the $1.35 level by end of the year on a combination of self-reinforcing dollar bearishness and traders’ willingness to test the overbuild of stops at $1.3490-00 in the face of an increasingly repetitive/decreasingly effective rhetoric from the European Central Bank. Although Monday’s concentrated chorus of cautionary remarks from Eurozone central bankers and Finance ministers succeeded in capping the currency, traders (mostly speculators) shall require more aggressive talk over the course of the month to stave off renewed waves of euro buying, especially in the midst of thinning Holiday trading volumes. Thus, as repetitive ECB talk becomes cheap, so will the dollar. This is in stark contrast to 5 years ago when the freefall in the euro overcame constant ECB talk asserting the strong euro was in the interest of the Eurozone.

more...

[54anickel]

40. 1:15 numbers and yada

Dow 10,507.67 +13.44 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,124.24 -1.87 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,184.34 +1.53 (+0.13%)
10-yr Bond 4.145% +0.013
30-yr Bond 4.813% +0.033
NYSE Volume 910,647,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,367,520,000

1:00PM : The broader averages stage a midday reversal and hover at improved levels, but are still showing losses across the board... One of the issues that has kept recent selling efforts in check have been comments from President Bush regarding an overhaul of the nation's Social Security program... The President, who shot down the idea of raising taxes to pay for reforming the current system, reminded key advisors that Social Security is facing "unfunded liabilities of about $11 trillion."...
To be sure, privatizing Social Security would greatly benefit brokerage stocks, not to mention the broader market as a whole... As such, this consideration has contributed to the willingness to buy some issues on the dip... NYSE Adv/Dec 1220/1914, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 979/2002

12:35PM : The market pares its losses quickly on the heels of National Semiconductor's (NSM 15.94 -0.06) Q2 (Nov) report... The chip maker topped top and bottom line expectations in its report, and also showed gross margins of 50.6%, well ahead of Street expectations... The company also gave roughly in line revenue guidance for Q3 (Feb)... As a result, the semiconductor group has bounced handily and spearheaded a rally in the tech sector... Although the Nasdaq, specifically, has a ways to go before hitting positive territory, it has retraced 7 points in the past 30 minutes...NYSE Adv/Dec 1040/2086, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 817/2154

12:05PM : The market started with noticeable losses and has held to its lowest levels of the morning as investor worries of an over-extended year-end rally has led to broad-based profit taking... Q4 (Dec) sales warnings from semiconductor companies Xilinx (XLNX 28.55 -2.18) and Altera (ALTR 19.55 -2.65) have exacerbated concerns about the indices getting ahead of themselves as both companies cited weak fundamental conditions (large chip inventories and weaker sales into the communications markets) for the reduced outlooks...

Other technology areas under pressure have been disk drive, hardware, software, and networking, while healthcare, financial, materials, retail, utility, and airline have also lost ground... Energy has also been negative most of the morning but has shown signs of resilience in the face of another recovery in crude oil futures ($42.70/bbl +$0.76)... Forecasts of colder weather and an anticipated cut in oil production at tomorrow's OPEC meeting have been catalysts for the commodity's recovery... Meanwhile, homebuilding has garnered some early buying interest following a 93% surge in Q4 earnings and upbeat guidance from homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL 58.16 +4.05)...

Economic data this morning were mixed with expectations and have not provided any catalysts for buying... An 8K rise in weekly jobless claims to 357K, versus expectations of 335K, was the highest reading since mid September... October Wholesale Inventories checked in at +1.1% (consensus was +0.5%), but has had little impact on trading as it says close to nothing about personal consumption...NYSE Adv/Dec 952/2126, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 772/2172

11:30AM : Sellers remain an active bunch as stocks across the board continue to sell off... Bucking the bearish bias, however, has been communication equipment... Ciena Corp. (CIEN 2.83 +0.49) posted a smaller than expected Q4 loss and guided Q1 revenues to approximately $87.7-90.2 mln, above analysts' expectations of $80.9 mln, due to improvements in customer spending patterns... Shares of the S&P 500 constituent have surged more than 20% and touched levels not seen since mid summer...

Telecom equipment maker Nortel (NT 3.86 +0.10), which was upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings, has also gained ground... NYSE Adv/Dec 870/2162, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 730/2163

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1253 (37%) 975 (31%)
Declines 1901 (57%) 2022 (64%)
Unchanged 161 (4%) 134 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 337 (39%) 457 (35%)
Down Vol* 490 (57%) 812 (63%)
Unch. Vol* 19 (2%) 15 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 107 71
New Lo's 45 24


And the buck:

Last trade 82.33 Change +0.43 (+0.53%)

Settle 81.90 Settle Time 23:36

Open 82.07 Previous Close 81.90

High 82.48 Low 81.74

Last tick: 2004-12-09 12:47:38 ET
30-min delayed quote.


The March Dollar is working on a possible inside day but was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's short covering rebound, which led to a close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.80. However, closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) is turning down hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the June 1995 low crossing at 80.14 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The March Euro was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains and is breaking out below the 10- day moving average crossing at 133.469. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) is turning down hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.997 would confirm that March has posted a short-term top. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March British Pound was lower overnight due to profit taking and is breaking out below initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.9116. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned neutral indicating that a short-term top is in or is near. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.9116 would increase the odds that a short-term top has likely been posted. If March extends this year's rally monthly resistance crossing at 1.9920 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading due to profit taking and is breaking out below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8714. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned down signaling that a short-term top may be in or is near. Closes below the 20- day moving average crossing at .8714 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If this fall's rally continues, monthly resistance crossing at .8973 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high and is challenging the 25% retracement level of the May-November rally crossing at .8173. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, the 38% retracement level of the May-November rally crossing at .7987 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to spillover selling following Wednesday's decline, which led to a breakout below the October-November uptrend line crossing near .9673. Multiple closes below the uptrend line crossing near .9673 would confirm that a short- term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this fall's rally, a test of monthly resistance crossing at .9982 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

[54anickel]

41. Gold lower on dollar strength

http://www.netassets.co.za/equities/nabrksreps/brokersDetail.asp?websitecontentitemID=37793

By Justin Brown Spot gold was marginally lower in midday trade on Thursday as the US dollar remained strong against both the euro and the yen, analysts said. At 13h05 on Thursday, spot gold was quoted at $437.40/oz from Wednesday's New York close of $440.40/oz. The euro was last quoted at $1.3299 from late New York trade on Wednesday of $1.3338. "The plunge in the euro yesterday saw gold fall and led to profit taking and stops being triggered all the way down. Everyone is looking at the euro, with $1.3250 a key level for euro-dollar," said Switzerland-based analyst for MKS Finance Frederic Panizzutti. "Once the moves in the euro are over, gold should test $440/oz in the medium-term. In the short-term, everyone is bearish. In the medium-term, the fall in gold should be a healthy correction and once gold starts to climb again there should be fresh inflows into gold as players will be buying to avoid missing the move up," Panizzutti added. Gold correction has seen the precious metal remain above key support between $431/oz and $433/oz, investment bank JP Morgan wrote in a note on Thursday. In the near-term, gold could re-test this area of key support and these tests should be viewed as buying opportunities, JP Morgan added. Gold has most likely seen its high for the year, which is the upside objective for the recovery in the coming weeks, the bank added. "Initial resistance is $442/oz, and breaks above $447/oz increases the odds that the correction is over," JP Morgan added. Platinum was quoted at US$827.50/oz, down $2.50/oz from its previous close of $830/oz, while palladium was quoted at $200/oz, down $5/oz from Wednesday's close of $205/oz. Platinum should see support between $815/oz and $825/oz, while resistance should appear between $840/oz and $850/oz, Moore wrote. After breaking below $200/oz on Wednesday, for the first time since January 13, 2004, palladium has the potential to mover lower, particularly as there is net speculative long position in the metal is 500,000 oz, which could easily push the metal down to between $185/oz and $190/oz, which was last seen in December 2003, Moore added.

[BamaBecky]

45. thanks

[54anickel]

42. China's Industrial Production Growth Slows to 14.8%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aVHrYSE7Qwpk&refer=top_world_news

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China's industrial production grew at the slowest pace in 18 months in November as the government ordered banks to restrict lending in industries including steel and autos to cool the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Production rose 14.8 percent from a year earlier to 508 billion yuan ($61 billion) after climbing 15.7 percent in October, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said today on its Web site. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 5 economists was for a 15.7 percent increase in November.

Manufacturers including Bayerische Motoren Werke AG are curbing production in China as credit restrictions damp demand and costs of raw materials rise. Stocks rose as the report eased concern policymakers will raise interest rates or tighten investment limits, causing a sharper slowdown in an economy that's the world's biggest consumer of steel, copper and cement.

``Growth is beginning to normalize a little,'' said Joseph Lau, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston in Hong Kong, who predicted slower production growth. ``We don't expect to see any more tightening measures at least for another two to three months.''

snip>

Another government report after the stock market closed showed China's exports grew 46 percent from a year earlier in November to $60.9 billion, the fastest pace in five months, as overseas demand rose for Chinese-made clothes, toys and electronic components. Imports climbed 39 percent to $51 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $9.9 billion.

more...

[54anickel]

43. Japan's Once-Booming Recovery Near a Standstill

Wow, this works even better than currency intervention! :evilgrin:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/09/business/worldbusiness/09yen.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1102617269-AMzCoe3oxa0gqqHaTCqjkQ

TOKYO, Dec. 8 - Japan's once-robust recovery slowed to a near standstill in the third quarter as consumer spending weakened more than expected, according to revised figures released Wednesday.

Adopting a new method of calculating output, the government revised third-quarter growth to an annual 0.2 percent from a previous 0.3 percent. The new method is intended to eliminate distortions caused by rapidly falling prices of high-technology items, like cellphones and computers.

Using the new calculation, the government also said that the economy shrank in the second quarter, declining an annual 0.6 percent instead of rising 1.1 percent as previously reported.

The revised figures were weaker than economists expected and well off the 6 percent pace of the first quarter. The data sent the yen sharply lower, hitting a low of 104.99, from 102.97 on Tuesday. But later in New York, the yen appeared to have recovered, trading at 102.89.

snip>

Aiming to eliminate those surprises, the government changed the way it measures economic growth and adopted a calculation, similar to one used in the United States, that more accurately gauges the impact of large price falls in things like electronic gadgets. Those items have consistently dropped in price in recent years.

more...

[54anickel]

46. IBM's new workers to only get 40l (k)s

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/apbiz_story.asp?category=1310&slug=IBM%20Pensions

NEW YORK -- Starting next year, International Business Machines Corp. will exclude new workers from its contested cash-balance pension plan and offer them only a 401 (k) savings plan.

The decision comes 10 months after a federal judge ruled the company's cash-balance pension plan discriminated against older workers because it cut their expected pensions significantly. The company has said it will appeal, but in the meantime agreed to a settlement with some of the workers who sued that are capped at $1.4 billion. The settlement is awaiting court approval.

IBM said the switch to a 401 (k) plan would not affect the approximately 135,000 current employees covered by the cash-balance plan, who also have company-sponsored 401 (k)s as part of their retirement investments. Workers who joined the company before 1995 also have traditional pension plans.

Employees with the new 401 (k) plan will be able to put 6 percent of their pay into a 401 (k), with a dollar-for-dollar company match, up from 50 percent for current workers. The new 401 (k) will also include annuity and disability options.

"IBM's new approach, which many companies have adopted, will allow IBM to continue to provide a competitive retirement benefit to new hires in an uncertain pension regulatory climate," said Kendra R. Collins, a company spokeswoman.

more...

[ozymandius]

47. 2:12 numbers. Somebody put their thumb on the scale.

Dow 10,499.69 +5.46 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,122.36 -3.75 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,182.95 +0.14 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.164% +0.032
NYSE Volume 1,071,216,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,624,732,000

[ozymandius]

48. Even the AG Edwards guy claims that tech decline is an "excuse".

U.S. stocks turn higher on solid National Semi results

-cut-
Commenting on this morning's pullback, Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards, described it as "healthy."

"I think the high-tech news is the excuse, but the reality is the market is short-term extended and this pullback is healthy," said Goldman.


-cut-

Tech tumble

Leading the tech decline was the semiconductor sector, sliding after Xilinx (NasdaqNM:XLNX - News) and Altera (NasdaqNM:ALTR - News) , the two largest manufacturers of programmable chips, cut their sales outlooks.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041209/ac37759f457e3cbb4f040377cf64d05b_1.html

[54anickel]

49. 2:23 and all in the red?

Dow 10,490.75 -3.48 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,120.10 -6.01 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,182.63 -0.18 (-0.02%)
10-yr Bond 4.174% +0.042
30-yr Bond 4.837% +0.057
NYSE Volume 1,102,480,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,670,182,000

[54anickel]

51. 3:00 and all better now - buck's back down a bit though, treasuries too

Dow 10,526.00 +31.77 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,132.07 +5.96 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,187.10 +4.29 (+0.36%)
10-yr Bond 4.161% +0.029
30-yr Bond 4.828% +0.048
NYSE Volume 1,231,714,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,841,359,000

2:35PM: The market retreats from its highs of the session, as the mid-day recovery loses steam... The rally has lost steam as buyers have lacked follow through after taking out yesterday's highs for the S&P 500 and Dow... Negative market internals also mark the recent trade... Decliners on the NYSE hold a more than 17 to 14 edge over advancers, while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by an 18 to 11 margin... Meanwhile, volume on the Big Board has surpassed 1.0 bln shares while volumes on the Composite are close to 1.7 bln...NYSE Adv/Dec 1440/1760, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1172/1880


US$

Last trade 82.00 Change +0.10 (+0.12%)

Settle 81.90 Settle Time 23:36

Open 82.07 Previous Close 81.90

High 82.48 Low 81.74

Last tick: 2004-12-09 14:34:16 ET
30-min delayed quote

[54anickel]

50. Mall owner sued over gift card rules

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/1204/09gift.html

Former Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes is taking on the nation's biggest mall owner in a fight over fees and expiration dates on gift cards and certificates.

Barnes, an attorney, is representing two Atlanta area shoppers in a lawsuit filed Wednesday against Simon Property Group, owner of Lenox Square and several other metro area malls.

The suit contends fees and expiration dates on Simon's gift cards and certificates are illegal and should be stopped. The suit seeks class action status, which if granted would likely expand the case to thousands of Georgians.

snip>

Cards sold by some big retailers, such as Wal-Mart and Home Depot, do not expire or carry fees that cut the value over time. But others do. Simon cards lose $2.50 in value each month, starting seven months after purchase, and expire one year after purchase.

more...

[54anickel]

52. Treasuries Drop, Foreigners Shun 10-Year

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20041209&ID=4137724

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices extended early losses on Thursday after private and foreign investors showed little interest in a sale of reopened debt.

The sale of $9 billion in reopened 10-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 4.15 percent. It drew bids for a respectable 2.68 times the amount on offer, compared to a lowly 2.12 at the last reopening in September.

However, indirect bidders, including private investors and foreign central banks, picked up only $879 million, or 10 percent of the whole issue. That compares to 40 percent in the original sale of the notes in November but at least was better than the paltry 2.8 percent seen at the last reopening.

Primary dealers ended up with $8.04 billion of notes, thus underwriting the bulk of the issue.

``Indirect bidder participation was low,'' said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer. ``Foreigners have not been buyers of this market, even in yesterday's five-year sale.''

While indirect bidding levels have become a proxy for central bank demand, Treasury data suggest they overstate official purchases at auctions.

more...

[54anickel]

53. Household debt rises 9.1% in third quarter

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE8AAC08E%2DE877%2D4271%2D9FD1%2DA912805FEFF8%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Debt levels of U.S. households increased at a 9.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter to $9.95 trillion, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.

Household net worth increased about half as fast, rising $545 billion to $46.7 trillion, the Fed said in its quarterly flow of funds report. Read the full report.

Total U.S. debt increased at a 7.4 percent annual rate to $23.6 trillion, as federal debt slowed to a 4.9 percent growth rate. Debt owed by U.S. businesses increased at a 5.1 percent rate, the fastest in five quarters.

Household mortgage debt increased at an 11.8 percent annual rate to $7.3 trillion, which was offset by higher asset values. Household real estate was worth $16.6 trillion, up more than 20 percent at an annual rate.

Fed officials have said consumer debt levels are not problematic because household net worth, especially in housing, has also increased.

Consumer credit increased at a 6 percent annual rate in the quarter to $2.1 trillion.

more...

[54anickel]

54. Closin' time! Santa's been good again, but is he early?

Dow 10,552.82 +58.59 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 2,129.01 +2.90 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,189.24 +6.43 (+0.54%)
10-yr Bond 4.161% +0.029
30-yr Bond 4.829% +0.049
NYSE Volume 1,624,100,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,293,378,000

Close: Stocks started with losses that were only exacerbated at mid-day; however, traders stepped in following an upside Q2 (Feb) earnings report from National Semiconductor (NSM 16.76 +0.76) which inspired investors to use the earlier weakness as a buying opportunity... The afternoon turnaround was not unlike others traders have seen in the past 4 weeks as the 'Santa Claus' rally still seems to have legs...
Negative news in the semiconductor group was the main reason for the lower open after chipmakers Xilinx (XLNX 29.72 -1.01) and Altera (ALTR 20.47 -1.73) reduced sales forecasts due to inventory concerns... Disappointing initial claims data, which came in at +357K new claims versus expectations of 335K, also added to the overall weakness... The market traded lower until late morning, when National Semiconductor beat analysts' Q2 expectations... Semiconductor began paring its large losses in quick fashion, and directed the market in turning the course... The afternoon recovery effort was highlighted by the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq breaking through several resistance levels, which in turn pulled more buyers off the sidelines...

Sectors showing relative strength today were homebuilding, consumer staples, biotech, healthcare, financial, retail... Networking, hardware, and software also inched into positive territory while semiconductor (-1.5%) and disk drive (-1.0%) recovered much of their earlier losses but still closed lower... Separately, October Wholesale Inventories came in at +1.1% (consensus was +0.5%), but had little influence on overall trading... The bond market closed near its lows after indirect bidder participation in the 10-year note came in well below normal, ahead of an expected rate hike at next Tuesday's Fed meeting...
The benchmark Treasury was off 14 ticks to yield 4.17%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1772/1537, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1373/1749

3:30PM : Onward and upward for stocks, as the indices continue their climb into positive territory... With no earnings of note tomorrow, all eyes will be on Friday's economic data... At 8:30 ET, the Department of Labor will release the November PPI... The figure is expected to climb a modest 0.1%, significantly lower than October's increase of 1.7%, the latter due in large part to the record highs seen in crude oil prices... The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is expected to show an increase of 0.2%, versus a prior reading of +0.2%...

At 9:45 ET, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show a preliminary reading for December of 93.5...NYSE Adv/Dec 1605/1656, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1326/1770

3:00PM : Equities catch another wave of buying interest, pushing them near session highs going into the last hour of trading... The bond market, however, closed near its lows of the session, as Treasuries were under pressure late in the day after indirect bidder participation in the 10-year note came in well below normal... Investors were reluctant to buy the treasury benchmark at three-week lows and ahead of an expected rate hike at the Fed's December 14 meeting...

On a related note, homebuilding, a sector tied to interest rates, has retained most of its gains after homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL 59.89 +5.78) said demand for its homes has remained tremendous in FY04 and has continued through the first five weeks of FY05... The 10-year note closed down 10 ticks to yield 4.15%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1400/1842, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1161/1934

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1776 (51%) 1373 (41%)
Declines 1519 (44%) 1749 (53%)
Unchanged 148 (4%) 159 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 946 (58%) 1130 (49%)
Down Vol* 655 (40%) 1119 (48%)
Unch. Vol* 24 (1%) 42 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 141 96
New Lo's 46 30


And the buck:

Last trade 82.06 Change +0.14 (+0.17%)

Settle 82.03 Settle Time 15:37

Open 82.07 Previous Close 81.90

High 82.48 Low 81.74

Last tick: 2004-12-09 16:17:11 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

55. UPDATE 1-NY silver ends sharply lower; gold, PGMs fall

http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=PV51YISN0Y4USCRBAEKSFFA?type=goldMktRpt&pageNumber=1

weird, that link brings up a different article. Try this one, may need to copy and paste it. The original link that does work can be found at kitco.com

http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=PV51YISN0Y4USCRBAEKSFFA?type=goldMktRpt&pageNumber=1

NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Silver prices plunged to a 10-week low on Thursday during the second day of a sell-off in the precious metals aimed at locking in recent profits before year-end, traders said.

In liquidation partly fueled by a firmer dollar, gold also tumbled but finished above a one-month low, while platinum fell and palladium hit contract- and near one-year lows.

Metals such as gold and silver often move in opposition to the dollar as they are viewed as alternative investments to the greenback.

"They hammered the silver today," said Rocky D'Esposito at RJ Futures. "I wouldn't be surprised if three-quarters of the selling was liquidation profit-taking, and maybe they added some new shorts in the market just to get some new computer selling.

"I think selling in these metals is going to continue," he said. "But you're going to get scale-down buying very shortly."

more covering the buck and gold...