Even as insurgent violence in Iraq continues to increase, U.S. officials have been reassured by the stalwart presence of Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. But now, with the January 30 election fast approaching, there is an increasing realization in Washington that the administration's key ally may not be in his job that much longer.
In fact, U.S. News has learned that at a meeting two weeks ago, top Bush cabinet officials including Secretary of State Colin Powell and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld discussed the prospect that Allawi might lose his job following next month's parliamentary poll.In recent weeks, most observers have been more focused on whether the elections will even take place--and many politicians continue to fear that insurgents will target electoral workers and polling stations in an effort to disrupt the vote. But President Bush and the interim government continue to insist they will stick to the schedule. This means that time is running out for Allawi, whose efforts to fashion a unity slate of candidates to return him to his post have foundered. Most political observers now say that he is unlikely to be chosen to keep his job because many Iraqis believe he has failed to deliver on promises to improve security or deliver basic services.
The electoral system to choose Iraq's new parliament is incredibly complex, and most of the deals between the 156 registered political parties are being cut in smoky backrooms around Iraq. For now, it appears that Shiite religious figures will emerge as the most powerful force in the new parliament, especially with many Sunnis threatening to boycott the vote. While the Shiites are not completely unified, the popular religious parties have forged a broad slate of candidates that has been blessed by Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the country's most influential cleric. U.S. officials fear these parties would seek to create more of a Shiite theocracy--and could erect new obstacles to U.S. military operations.
Allawi, a secular Shiite, could still prevail, but it is not clear that the U.S. military is fully prepared for his increasingly likely departure. Allawi has given U.S. troops a fair amount of room to operate in Iraq--and backed them even during tough times like the siege of Fallujah. On the other hand, the ouster of the U.S.-backed Allawi could help convince Iraqis that the United States really is trying to build a democracy in Iraq.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/041220/usnews/20iraq.htm?track=rss
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