STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 31 December

[ozymandius]

Friday December 31, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 20 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 20 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 74 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1135
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 30, 2004

Dow... 10,800.30 -28.89 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq... 2,178.34 +1.34 (+0.06%)
S&P 500... 1,213.55 +0.10 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.26% -0.06 (-1.37%)
Gold future... 438.40 +1.40 (+0.32%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 80.41 Change -0.12 (-0.15%)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aYOuO2lmFnc8&refer=japan

U.S. Dollar Is Poised for Third Yearly Decline Versus Euro, Yen

excerpt:

``We're going to see continued dollar depreciation,'' said Thomas O'Malley, head of global currency portfolio management in San Francisco at Barclays Global Investors, with more than $1 trillion in assets. ``As we move into 2005, the change in the date isn't going to alter the fundamental question over the ability of the U.S. to fund its deficits.''

<snip>

Japan's central bank stayed out of the currency market from Nov. 27 to Dec. 28, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo, even as the yen rose to the strongest in almost five years of 101.83 on Dec. 2. Japan sold 14.8 trillion yen ($144.2 billion) in the first three months of 2004, following record sales of 20.4 trillion yen in 2003.

The report ``shows there's a bit of breathing room in pushing the yen higher,'' said Ashley Davies, a currency strategist in Singapore at UBS AG, the biggest trader in the daily $1.9 billion currency market, according to Euromoney magazine. ``The risk of intervention right now from the BOJ isn't particularly high.''

<snip>

The U.S. budget deficit reached a record $412 billion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. It is forecast to be $348 billion in the current year, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

``Until the U.S. gets its fiscal house in order, the bias for the dollar will be down,'' said Robert Rennie, currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp.

Demand for the dollar yesterday waned after the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said its index fell to 61.2 this month from 65.2 in November. The employment index dropped to 49.1 from 60.8. A reading below 50 means more companies said they were eliminating workers.

...more...

No Reports today.

Have Great Day and a Happy New Year Marketeers!

(edited to correct pasting error)

[UpInArms]

8. Dollar steady to lower in thin trading ahead of holiday

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38352.399932419-830575615&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. dollar fell 0.6 percent against its Japanese counterpart in thin pre-New Year's holiday trading on Friday. One dollar was worth 102.47 yen amid speculation that Japanese authorities could let their currency appreciate in the near term. The euro was steady at $1.3630. The British pound rose 0.3 percent to $1.9302. The dollar's overall weak tone looked to stretch into the new year, with the dollar index -- a measure of the greenback against a basket of the world's major currencies --trading at fresh nine-year lows.

[UpInArms]

15. Dollar on track for third yearly decline

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B90138A60%2DE45D%2D41BC%2D8275%2D3992482B90EC%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. dollar was set to close out its third straight year of depreciation, hampered by U.S. deficits and an apparent willingness on the part of the world's financial powers to let the greenback fall.

The string of three annual declines will be the longest since the late 1980s.

The dollar moved 0.6 percent lower Friday against the Japanese yen in thin pre-New Year's trading.

<snip>

Alex Beuzelin, senior market strategist with Ruesch International, cited several factors as "keeping the U.S. currency biased toward the downside."

These include, he said, a "record-high" U.S. current account deficit, Washington policymakers' "tolerance" of a dollar, "market perceptions that no official coordinated G-7 action is planned to rescue the greenback."

...more...

"Ah'm gonna pick up whar' ma daddy lef' off" GWB (campaign 2000)

[ozymandius]

2. Crude futures end higher in thin trade

Crude futures finished the final session of the year higher in London, but thin volumes ensured there was little pattern to trade.

Traders active on the International Petroleum Exchange during the last half session of the year looked to be avoiding taking long positions in the market ahead of the three-day break.

The New York Mercantile Exchange was scheduled to remain closed for the New Year's Eve holiday, helping to keep trade light.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=1&u=/ft/20041231/bs_ft/bfed2fea5b1111d99ad300000e2511c8

[54anickel]

3. Europe gold firm, seen extending bull run in 2005

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH12410_2004-12-31_10-57-43_L3180303

snip>

The dollar struggled to stay above Thursday's record low set against the euro at $1.3667 as investors bet on continued dollar weakness next year -- raising the allure of dollar-priced gold as an alternative asset.

Dollar weakness has been the dominant factor behind gold's three-year run higher, with the metal's price reaching its highest in 16-1/2 years this month at $456.75 as worries about the ability of the United States to fund its ballooning twin deficits weighed on the currency.

Bullion has gained almost six percent since the start of this year, with dealers looking for the metal to rise further in 2005 due to continuing positive fundamentals.

James Moore of TheBulliondesk.com said in a daily report that gold was looking ripe for fresh gains.

"Despite the threat of further speculative liquidation and potential institutional sales to fund the $500 million aid package for the Indian Ocean disaster fund, the overriding factor behind gold remains the dollar...keeping the mid to longer term outlook bullish."

more...

[54anickel]

4. Average-Wage Earners Fall Behind

New Job Market Makes More Demands but Fewer Promises

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37628-2004Dec30.html

snip>

After years cleaning the insides of airplanes and polishing their outsides, Geerling was laid off from American Airlines last year. The job was physically taxing for Geerling, 50, but the nearly $32,000 annual pay and health-care coverage helped provide a typical middle-class life in this small midwestern community.

Now, she works the overnight shift at a local hospital as a nurse's aide while completing course work to be certified as a medical assistant. That would seem to be a smart move, because unlike airlines, which are contracting, health care is one of the industries that many economists believe could generate millions more jobs in the decades to come.

Yet rarely has Geerling's work life been so precarious.

If she can't stay on her husband's health plan, her costs for health insurance offered by the hospital will be $200 a month, more than five times as much as at the airline. There are no pension benefits beyond the option for a 401(k) savings plan and few job protections. She makes $2 an hour less than before; to have a chance at higher pay, she will need to continually train herself in new areas.

Geerling is at the leading edge of changes that herald a new era for millions of people earning around the national average, $17 an hour.

This new era requires that workers shoulder more responsibility and risk on the way to financial security, economists say. It also demands that they be nimble in an increasingly fluid job market. Those who don't obtain some combination of specialized skills, higher education and professional status that can be constantly adapted will be in danger of sliding down the economic ladder to low-paying service jobs, usually without benefits.

more...

[UpInArms]

5. pre-opening blather

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures market continues to suggest a slightly higher open for equities with year-end optimism providing much of the spark behind the positive sentiment... General Electric (GE) has reaffirmed prior Q4 (Dec) and FY04 EPS guidance of $0.48-0.51 and $1.57-1.60, respectively, in line with street expectations

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Still shaping up to be a modestly higher open for the indices, as futures trade holds fairly steady in positive territory... In company-specific news, Boeing (BA) has received an order for four more of its 7E7 planes and Pfizer (PFE) has received FDA approval to sell Lyrica to treat persistent nerve pain while IBM (IBM) has released details of nearly $1 bln in losses accumulated by its PC unit...

Eli Lilly (LLY) should also be in focus today as reports suggest that the FDA is reviewing a possible link of its antidepressant Prozac to violent behavior

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures versus fair value suggesting a flat to slightly higher open for the cash market... Contributing factors for the modest upside bias, however, remain few and far between as investors appear to have little in the way of market-moving news on the last trading day of the year... There are no economic releases or earnings reports until Monday while the commodities markets and most foreign markets remain closed for the holiday

[54anickel]

6. JPMorgan Leads Banks Lending Record $2.32 Trillion This Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aHDTTXcgaQZs&refer=us

Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. led banks that arranged a record $2.32 trillion of loans this year, spurred by a surge in mergers and acquisitions and a decline in borrowing costs.

The amount of loans made rose by 53 percent from last year as companies including Royal Philips Electronics NV, Europe's biggest consumer-electronics maker, refinanced deals to reduce interest costs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Companies such as Sanofi-Aventis SA and Constellation Brands Inc. used loans to buy rivals amid the biggest year for takeovers since 2000.

Mergers and acquisitions this year rose to $2 trillion globally, Bloomberg data show. Banks are reducing interest margins and fees for loans as they vie for relationships that will result in additional business such as share sales and advising on takeovers.

``Banks have a lot of money to lend,'' said Julian van Kan, head of European loans at BNP Paribas SA in London, the third- biggest arranger of syndicated loans in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. ``There's the promise of fees from bond and other debt underwriting, derivatives, trade business and advice.''

snip>

`Feel Good'

Companies borrowed more amid strengthening economies. The International Monetary Fund in Washington forecasts global growth will slow to 4.3 percent next year from 5 percent in 2004, the fastest in almost three decades. In addition, banks are willing to lend as profits climb. U.S. bank earnings rose 4.2 percent in the third quarter from the second to a record $32.5 billion, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said.

more...

[54anickel]

7. Wall Street Bears Look to '05, Nurse '04 Wounds

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=EN3CXQQL5GHMICRBAEKSFEY?type=reutersEdge&storyID=7209498

NEW YORK (Reuters) - After ending the year with a whimper, Wall Street bears are foraging for new prey, with home builders, banks and oil producers likely targets.

Short-sellers, or bearish investors who profit from stocks falling, are also holding on to their bets that high-flying Internet stocks will be humbled in future quarters.

And while the fate of these sectors remains uncertain, many financial experts say rising interest rates, decelerating earnings and an economic slow down could put the majority of short-sellers in the black this year -- the first time since 2002.

"Most people think it's going to be a banner year for short-sellers," said Harry Strunk, an investment consultant based in West Palm Beach, Florida who has tracked short-sellers for more than 20 years. "There seemed to be a lot of speculation in the late-year rally. The expectation is that the market will return to fundamentals next year."

This year, in fact, looked to be a banner year for short-sellers, with the market flat for most of 2004.

Then November rolled around. :eyes:

more...

(edit for link)

[UpInArms]

9. 9:40 EST markets are open

Dow 10,815.67 +15.37 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,183.14 +4.80 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,215.09 +1.54 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.236 -0.27 (-0.63%)

NYSE Volume 36,578,000
Nasdaq Volume 100,162,000

[54anickel]

10. Companies 'face hedging errors'

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/28209b88-5a9a-11d9-aa6e-00000e2511c8.html

European companies and their treasurers are in danger of making the wrong decisions on hedging strategies because of new accounting rules, an international body has warned.


The International Group of Treasury Associations says: "There is a grave danger that companies will change their hedging policies so as to produce a favourable short-term accounting treatment and this may be detrimental to the real economic needs of the company."

Companies use derivatives to hedge against a number of market factors including currency movements, interest rate changes and commodity prices. Energy and food companies are among the biggest hedgers.

snip>

Merrill Lynch analysts, in a recent research note, said IAS 39 primarily affected banks and insurers, "but could also impact any company that hedges commodities or energy, such as utilities, or where there is a long lead time between order and delivery, such as aerospace or software".

The IGTA added that the Commission's carve-outs jeopardised efforts to bring US and European accounting into harmony, a long-term goal of the IASB programme. "By creating a cut-down standard, which is not the full IASB standard, there is a risk that recognition of IFRS as an acceptable accounting standard for US regulatory purposes is lost."

more...

[54anickel]

11. The Year on Wall Street: Treating Investment Bankers Like Bartenders

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/31/business/31norris.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1104504455-oJ7pwliWKfbKErx3IQsG1w

IT was a great year for Wall Street, or so the earnings numbers seem to say. New stock issues are selling again and corporate bond underwriting set a record. President Bush is pushing a Social Security plan that would divert huge sums of money into investment accounts, generating fees for Wall Street. Brokerage stocks have been market leaders in the postelection rally

But the real man of the year on Wall Street - or at least the man whose plight is emblematic of the new Wall Street reality - will not be sharing in those bonuses. Instead, Daniel Bayly is awaiting sentencing in federal court in Houston, where he is likely to be ordered to spend a few years in prison for doing something that few on Wall Street would have seen as a crime.

snip>

The current reality is that investment and commercial bankers are the new deep pockets. They used to get high fees for devising transactions whose primary purpose was to mislead investors. Now they will be sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission and by private lawyers if there is any evidence the bankers knew the company's accounting was suspicious. The Justice Department may even deem such an act to be a felony, and there is no assurance that it will not bring criminal charges against an investment bank as well as against its officials.

Parmalat, the bankrupt Italian food company, has gone even further. It is seeking damages from virtually every financial institution it dealt with. It even wants to avoid repaying those who lent it money shortly before it went under, arguing that provisions meant to ensure repayment made the loans somehow fraudulent. Even a partial victory would be bad news for Wall Street.

As the profits pour in from the rebound in investment banking fees, investors might hesitate in bidding up the industry's shares. As Mr. Bayly's conviction demonstrates, the risks of the investment banking business are much greater than they used to be.

more...

[54anickel]

12. China will shake West's strategy

The global economy has been hauled along by the power of two locomotives -- the US and China -- but when the West loses faith in a falling US dollar, as is widely expected, the house of cards might come falling down

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2004/12/30/2003217320/print

For those who like to live life on the edge, 2004 has been a year to savor. It's been a white-knuckle ride as the global economy has defied soaring energy costs, the ever-present threat of terrorist attacks and profound imbalances between the leading players to post what the IMF called the strongest growth performance in almost three decades. There's no mystery as to the reason for this. Put simply, the world has been hauled along by the power of its two locomotives -- the US and China. America's seemingly insatiable appetite for consumption and China's need for investment allowed the rest of the world to bank on export-led growth.

Only Europe failed to make the party. As the year came to a close, there were some signs that next year might be more tranquil. Oil prices came down a bit, the dollar depreciated, the pace of growth moderated from its rapid pace in the middle of the year. In Britain, the heat came out of the housing market without any hard evidence that falling property prices would lead to a repeat of the recession of the early 90s. As a result, it is perfectly possible that next year will be another year of solid growth. The pace of expansion may be a bit weaker than this year, but the trade-off is that it could be better balanced.

There are plenty of forecasters out there -- including the IMF and the OECD -- who think the global economy is on course for a soft landing, and they could well be right. That, however, hardly makes for riveting reading -- so here are five reasons to be worried. The first is that the relatively ordered depreciation in the dollar turns nasty. As Stephen Roche of Morgan Stanley points out, the US dollar fell by 30 percent in the late 1980s when its trade deficit was only half as big as it is today. So far, it has fallen by only 15 percent on a tradeweighted basis, and the expectation has to be that it has further -- perhaps a lot further -- to fall.

For years, what has been happening is that the US has sucked in imports from the rest of the world, and the exporting countries have recycled their foreign exchange reserves into US assets, helping to underpin both the dollar and Wall Street. The house of cards could come tumbling down if the exporting nations lose faith in the dollar at a time when their sales to the US are drying up.

snip>

The question posed by the economists at Alliance Bernstein is whether the rest of the world is prepared for this. Textile-exporting countries such as Bangladesh will be the first to feel the effects of China's might from Jan. 1, when the ending of the Multi-Fiber Agreements removes the preferential access they enjoy to Western markets. China's ability to mass-produce good quality goods at competitive prices means there is a real fear that factories in Bangladesh and Africa will go bust. The idea, however, that China is going to be satisfied with low-cost manufacturing is a complacent fallacy. It already has a burgeoning middle class and as the country becomes more affluent it will consume vast amounts of goods and services. Many of these are already being supplied by indigenous Chinese companies, which are now looking to expand overseas in sectors such as cars, consumer durables, computers and mobile phones. In effect, China is the Japan of 30 years ago -- on a far bigger scale. The sheer size of China's domestic market means that it will spawn world-class competitors who will produce top class goods at knock-down prices. For companies in the West, the message is clear: Think strategically about China now or any short-term gain could quickly become long-term pain.

more...

[54anickel]

13. Free ride

http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/30/technology/techinvestor/lamonica/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - June 15, 2005 is D-Day for many big tech companies. That's when a rule requiring them to expense stock options is set to go into effect.

Several large tech companies, most notably Cisco Systems (Research) and Intel (Research), have vociferously protested the rule change, which has been approved by the Financial Accounting Standards Board but could be blocked by Congress.

Techs claim that is difficult to calculate an accurate value for stock options.

What's more, many of these tech companies have argued that companies would give out fewer options and that will make it tougher to attract high profile talent. (I've written before that I think both of these arguments are bunk.)

What they are really worried about though, is that expensing options would reduce reported earnings, which could make already pricey tech stocks seem more expensive.

snip>

When push comes to shove, I think that Wall Street will choose to blissfully ignore the cost of options and other equity-based forms of compensation. I'm not saying that's right. That's just the way it is.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. Holiday gift-card effect seen as limited

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4A74B7ED%2D00DB%2D481C%2DAB7D%2D1DE0A4DF6F60%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gift cards, forecast to contribute more than $17 billion to holiday sales, may not be the post-Christmas savior for the nation's retailers after all, according to Bernstein Investment Research.

In a note to clients Friday, the broker and investment firm said that although gift cards have been hailed for providing a "positive 'January effect,' actual results suggest this is more hype than help." The "January effect" refers to how transactions aren't recorded as sales until the cards are redeemed for merchandise.

The National Retail Federation estimates that gift cards will account for about $17.24 billion this year, representing roughly 8 percent of holiday sales.

But Bernstein said that the data don't point to a major shift to January sales.

"Given a large percentage of gift cards are typically redeemed during the last week of December, the majority of the impact of an increased number of gift cards is to shift December sales from pre-Christmas to post-Christmas, not significantly impacting the overall monthly result," the broker said.

...more...

[54anickel]

16. Capital One Ads Misled Customers, Suit Charges

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37697-2004Dec30.html

Minnesota's attorney general yesterday sued two subsidiaries of Capital One Financial Corp., contending that their "No Hassle" credit card ads were false, deceptive and misleading because they erroneously gave consumers the perception that their "fixed" interest rates would never increase.

The ads suggest that Capital One's cards, unlike its competitors', would bear interest rates that remain at 4.99 percent, the lawsuit said. However, it alleged, for many consumers, the interest rates went up -- in some cases they could have increased to 25.9 percent -- if they were just a day late in paying their bills or if they exceeded credit limits.

"In truth there is no 'fixed' rate on Capital One credit cards," claimed the lawsuit filed in Minnesota state court.

In a telephone interview yesterday, Attorney General Mike Hatch estimated, based on company data he has seen, that about 40 percent of Capital One's customers who sign up for the fixed-rate card "hit a tripwire that will trigger a higher rate."

Capital One spokeswoman Tatania Stead said, "We believe we've acted properly and are in full compliance with the law." :eyes:

more...

[54anickel]

17. 11:15 update and some blather

Dow 10,806.50 +6.20 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,180.82 +2.48 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,214.52 +0.97 (+0.08%)
10-yr Bond 42.26 -0.37 (-0.87%)
30-yr Bond 48.41 -0.39 (-0.80%)
NYSE Volume 221,416,000
Nasdaq Volume 442,256,000

11:00AM : More of the same as the indices continue to hover around the unchanged mark as industry leadership remains split... On the Dow, Alcoa (AA 31.67 +0.22) has led the list of winners after it received final approval from the Russian government to acquire two fabricating facilities while early buying interest has pushed shares of Intel (INTC 23.38 +0.13) and Altria (MO 61.48 +0.35) higher...
Boeing (BA 51.78 -0.12), despite receiving another order its 7E7 Dreamliners, has lost some ground while McDonald's (MCD 32.21 -0.17), Procter & Gamble (PG 55.21 -0.24) and Home Depot (HD 42.76 -0.16) have also been weak in the early going... NYSE Adv/Dec 1472/1411, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1331/1451

10:30AM : Equities continue to run in place just above the flat line with few catalysts to send them noticeably higher... Meanwhile, treasuries continue to trade near their highs of the session due in part to some year-end window dressing, as the benchmark 10-year note has climbed 6 ticks to yield 4.22%... The dollar, however, remains weaker against the both the euro (1.3610) and the yen (102.46), which have gained 8.8% and 4.4% against the greenback this year, respectively...

Currency traders continue to make bets on potential Japanese intervention regarding the dollar's continued decline but still believe U.S. and Euroland authorities will continue to let the markets decide... NYSE Adv/Dec 1295/1456, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1222/1439

10:00AM : Major indices still exhibiting a slightly positive bias as buyers pick and choose from stocks... Extending yesterday's gains has been technology, with semiconductor (+0.5%) leading the way, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq looks to close out 2004 up nearly 9.0%... Homebuilding, retail, materials and financial have also traded higher while sectors under modest selling pressure early on have been health care, utility, transportation and biotech...NYSE Adv/Dec 1272/1211, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1190/1234

9:40AM : Market opens a bit higher, but overall, there isn't a strong sense of conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle... Gains are modest in scope with the Nasdaq taking the early lead in terms of outperformance as far as the major indices are concerned... Lack of corporate news and thin trading volumes, however, coupled with no notable earnings or economic data, could contribute to sharp swings in overall activity throughout the session...

And the buck:

Last trade 80.61 Change +0.08 (+0.10%)

Settle 80.53 Settle Time 23:37

Open 80.58 Previous Close 80.53

High 80.75 Low 80.39

[54anickel]

18. Treasuries Rise on Last Day of 2004

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=HTDCRSCD3CK5UCRBAEKSFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=7214169

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries edged higher in somnolent, early dealings on Friday, supported by signs that December job growth was less robust than some had thought.

A sharp drop in the Chicago purchasing managers' employment measure, released on Thursday, cast doubt on forecasts for next week's payrolls data and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve might eventually have to slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

Goldman Sachs economists said they revised their estimate for December's nonfarm payrolls to a gain of 175,000 from their earlier forecast that payrolls would expand by 225,000 jobs.

To support its lower forecast, Goldman cited recent data, including little, if any, increase in manufacturing payrolls, and "a closer look at retail hiring patterns during the holiday."

more...

[Tace]

19. Lurker Reporting In -- Hey Ozymandius, UpInArms & 54anickle...

I noticed there are three of you posting on this thread today. I want to tell you that there are, indeed, people lurking on the thread. Although I rarely post, I follow this thread every day, check every post, and read most of them, especially the lengthy analysis pieces, which I find very interesting.

So thanks a lot. And Happy New Year!

[shrike]

20. Another lurker here

I am dumb about finances and have nothing to contribute, but I follow it religiously. Thanks for all you do.

[UpInArms]

21. Happy New Year Tace (and all other lurkers)

Thanks for peering in, reading and observing with us the effects of the policies of our government upon the financial world at large.

I (we) know that the posting and dissemination of information and opinion about what happens (or causes to happen) monetarily affects each and every one whether they are involved in stock trading or not.

Glad to have you out there (and in here)!

:hi:

[fedsron2us]

22. Damn you beat me to it

Although I have only posted to this thread on one or two occasions the Stock Market Watch is one of my 'must read' items on DU. The economy and particularly the effects of the various deficits on the US dollar are going to be huge stories over the next few years and this thread is going to be an ever more important source of news. Ozymandius, UpInArms & particularly 54anickel have done a great job keeping the rest of us so well informed. I would just like you to know that your efforts are truely appreciated.

Have a very Happy New Year.

edit for typo

[amandabeech]

23. Another lurker here!

Thanks to all of you for a thread that is consistently excellent. I start my day with a cup of java and Stock Market Watch. Don't let your wallet leave home without it!

[54anickel]

26. Thanks Tace, and all the lurkers (you know who you are!!!). It's always

great to hear from lurkers to the thread. Nice to find that others do share in our concern over the markets and their effects on everyone's economic well-being, whether you're active in the markets or not. It's all inter-related.

Thanks for reporting in! There are days where it seems sort of lonely out here...good to know there are still lurkers to the thread!

Best to all in the new year! :hi:

[ozymandius]

42. Thank you Tace and everyone for your kind sentiments.

It means a great deal that you've shared your thoughts. UpInArms and 54anickel are golden here as they do most of the heavy lifting. The role I inherited from radfringe so long ago (it seems) of posting this thread continues to be a real treat. To see that you and others are satisfied with the result is my payday.

Happy New Year and please post again soon!

Ozymandius :hi:

[54anickel]

24. 12:58 and all in the red again, buck got a nice little bump.

Dow 10,794.61 -5.69 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,178.28 -0.06 (-0.00%)
S&P 500 1,212.85 -0.70 (-0.06%)
10-yr Bond 4.22% -0.043
30-yr Bond 4.827% -0.053
NYSE Volume 364,560,000
Nasdaq Volume 716,417,000

12:30PM : While analyst actions have been hard to come by in recent days, a few comments have prompted investor interest in a select few... Shares of Vimpel Communications (VIP 36.66 +0.88), which fell off a cliff earlier this month when news surfaced that it could owe up to $157 mln in back taxes, have surged more than 2.0% after JP Morgan upgraded the wireless provider to Overweight from Neutral and set a $48 price target following a positive decision by Russian tax authorities...
Sapient (SAPE 7.83 -0.15), however, despite Raymond James starting coverage with a Market Perform rating and Thomas Weisel saying SAPE appears well-positioned for continued market share gains, have succumbed to year-end year profit taking as shares the software maker have surged nearly 40% since bottoming out in mid-summer...NYSE Adv/Dec 1698/1346, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1491/1454

12:00PM : Market opens the last day of trading on a slightly upbeat note, but there has been little in the way of corporate news or economic data to entice aggressive trading among either buyers or sellers... With the commodities market closed, lackluster action in Europe, no activity in Asia and the bond market closing early (1:00 ET), buyers have tiptoed through the market today, barely keeping the indices in positive territory on seasonally light trading volumes...

Meanwhile, semiconductor (+0.4%) has tried to regain some of the 15% it has lost so far this year while modest gains have also been realized in networking, financial and energy... Materials stocks have also recovered some ground due to a recovery in the steel sector, which lost more than 5.5% yesterday, while homebuilding has taken advantage of lower bond yields as treasuries remain near their highs of the session... Airline has given up yesterday's 1.4% gains after another air carrier (Aloha Airlines) declared bankruptcy protection, adding pressure to the Dow Transports (-0.2%), while health care, utility and retail have also traded lower...

The benchmark 10-year note is up 7 ticks to yield 4.22% as the dollar continues to weaken against the both the euro (1.3635) and the yen (102.72)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1642/1357, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1475/1452

11:30AM : Stocks still cling to modest gains despite market internals showing a somewhat mixed bias across the broader averages... Advancers on the NYSE have maintained a modest 15 to 13 margin over decliners while declining issues on the Nasdaq have held a very slim 14 to 13 edge over advancing issues... As expected, limited investor participation has kept market activity near their lowest levels of the year, as volumes on the Big Board have yet to reach 300 mln shares while shares exchanging hands on the Composite have failed to surpass 500 mln...

Up volumes at both the NYSE and Nasdaq, however, continue to outpace down volumes by a respectable margin... NYSE Adv/Dec 1559/1390, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1392/1444



And the buck:

Last trade 80.93 Change +0.40 (+0.50%)

Settle 80.53 Settle Time 23:37

Open 80.58 Previous Close 80.53

High 81.11 Low 80.39

[UpInArms]

28. a toast to my "twin"!

[54anickel]

30. Why thank you for the early start on ringing in the new year. Don't

mind if I do!!! Ahhh, the pause that refreshes.

[UpInArms]

25. 1:00 EST numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,794.09 -6.21 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,178.19 -0.15 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,212.78 -0.77 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 42.19 -0.44 (-1.03%)

NYSE Volume 365,941,000
Nasdaq Volume 718,731,000

12:30PM: While analyst actions have been hard to come by in recent days, a few comments have prompted investor interest in a select few... Shares of Vimpel Communications (VIP 36.66 +0.88), which fell off a cliff earlier this month when news surfaced that it could owe up to $157 mln in back taxes, have surged more than 2.0% after JP Morgan upgraded the wireless provider to Overweight from Neutral and set a $48 price target following a positive decision by Russian tax authorities...

Sapient (SAPE 7.83 -0.15), however, despite Raymond James starting coverage with a Market Perform rating and Thomas Weisel saying SAPE appears well-positioned for continued market share gains, have succumbed to year-end year profit taking as shares the software maker have surged nearly 40% since bottoming out in mid-summer...NYSE Adv/Dec 1698/1346, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1491/1454

12:00PM: Market opens the last day of trading on a slightly upbeat note, but there has been little in the way of corporate news or economic data to entice aggressive trading among either buyers or sellers... With the commodities market closed, lackluster action in Europe, no activity in Asia and the bond market closing early (1:00 ET), buyers have tiptoed through the market today, barely keeping the indices in positive territory on seasonally light trading volumes...

Meanwhile, semiconductor (+0.4%) has tried to regain some of the 15% it has lost so far this year while modest gains have also been realized in networking, financial and energy... Materials stocks have also recovered some ground due to a recovery in the steel sector, which lost more than 5.5% yesterday, while homebuilding has taken advantage of lower bond yields as treasuries remain near their highs of the session...

Last trade 80.93 Change +0.40 (+0.50%)

Settle 80.53 Settle Time 23:37

Open 80.58 Previous Close 80.53

High 81.11 Low 80.39

Last tick: 2004-12-31 12:33:09 ET
30-min delayed quote.

(is the buck getting a little help today? :shrug: )

[54anickel]

27. Jinx! It does seem like the buck got quite a boost around 11:30 ET

[54anickel]

29. Raines' Fall at Fannie Mae Stuns Friends

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041231/raines_rise_and_fall_2.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Two months after swearing to Congress that Fannie Mae's accounting practices were beyond reproach, Franklin D. Raines was forced out as chairman and chief executive officer in a serious and possibly career-ending blow.

Raines' ouster in the midst of an accounting scandal at the mortgage giant has some of those who know the influential Washington businessman puzzled by the extraordinary turn of events and doubtful that he knowingly had anything to do with it.

"He's a guy who operates with a great deal of integrity," said Leon Panetta, who served as chief of staff in the Clinton White House when Raines headed the budget office. "I can't imagine that he would try to play games with something that important."

Friends say Raines could have fought to keep his job, but decided to leave because of his past pledge to take personal responsibility if accounting problems were found.

snip>

"I previously stated that I would hold myself accountable if the (Securities and Exchange Commission) determined that significant mistakes were made in the company's accounting," Raines said Dec. 21 in his final statement as Fannie Mae's chief. "By my early retirement, I have held myself accountable."

And set yourself up for life with a very attractive retirement package I hear :eyes:

more...

[54anickel]

31. New EU countries enjoy currency boost

Spending power encourages trips across borders to shop and play

Record gains by currencies in the four biggest nations that joined the European Union in May have boosted consumers' spending power and spurred trips to Austria, Germany and beyond for clothes, ski trips and even groceries.

The Polish zloty is the world's best-performing currency this year, gaining 16 percent against the euro and 25 percent against the dollar. The Hungarian forint has risen 7 percent versus the euro and 16 percent against the dollar, while the Czech and Slovak koruna are up 6 percent against the euro and 15 percent against the dollar.

"The purchasing power of the people from those new EU countries increased quite markedly, and their presence will be felt more on the markets" of Western Europe, said Radek Maly, who follows Eastern European currencies as head of research and treasury at Citibank in Prague, Czech Republic. "They will be able to afford to spend more, either through tourism or by individual spending."

The former communist countries' EU membership has reduced the risk for foreign investors, boosting benchmark stock indexes and generating demand for the currencies. Budapest, Hungary's BUX index is the world's third-best performer this year, adding 78 percent in dollar terms, while Prague's PX50 is up 72 percent, ranking fourth. Warsaw, Poland's WIG20 index gained 49 percent and ranks eighth.

Shares of Budapest-based OTP Bank, the biggest bank by market value in the 10 new members, rose 109 percent, and PKN Orlen, Poland's largest oil firm, has advanced 56 percent.

more...

[54anickel]

32. Australia Dollar Has Third Annual Gain; Metal Prices Increase

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=anW1WspeWp1M&refer=australia

Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar had its third annual gain against the U.S. currency on optimism an increase in the price of metals the nation exports will boost company profits and fuel economic growth.

Australia is the world's third-largest supplier of gold and copper, and the biggest producer of iron ore and alumina. Also stoking demand, San Miguel Corp. yesterday offered to buy National Foods Ltd., raising expectations the company will need to buy the Australian currency, known as the Aussie.

``Global growth is reasonably robust and rising commodity exports will help boost the Aussie dollar as well,'' said Simon Stevenson, a currency strategist at Merrill Lynch Investment in Sydney, which has about $8.4 billion under management. ``We're still positive on the Aussie dollar.''

Australia's dollar bought 77.95 U.S. cents at 5 p.m. in Sydney from 77.47 U.S. cents in late Asian trading yesterday. The currency has increased 3.7 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2004, jumping 7.1 percent in the final three months.

Merrill Lynch's Stevenson expects the Australian currency will rise to 85 U.S. cents next year.

more...

[54anickel]

33. New Zealand Dollar Rises, Heading for 9.5% Gain in 2004

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=aILK.Nnixq3E&refer=australia

Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's dollar rose, heading for a 9.5 percent gain against the U.S. dollar this year, as investors seek returns from higher-yielding currencies.

New Zealand's dollar bought 71.78 U.S. cents at 12 p.m. in Wellington, compared with 71.53 cents yesterday and 52.43 cents at the start of the year. The local dollar is the fourth-best performer of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg

The local currency may gain further early next year as investor concern about the record U.S. current account deficit saps demand for U.S. dollars, said Robert Rennie, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. Investors are attracted to New Zealand where 10-year government bonds yield 1.7 percentage points more than like-maturity U.S. Treasuries.

``We continue to expect the U.S. dollar to weaken through into the earlier stages of next year,'' Rennie said. ``I would not be surprised to see a new high'' above the local currency's 16-year high of 72.68 cents on Dec. 6, he said.

The U.S. dollar is set for the longest annual losing streak since 1987 as it heads for its third declining year. The U.S. current account shortfall widened to $164.7 billion last quarter, equivalent to 5.6 percent of gross domestic product, the Commerce Department said on Dec. 16.

more...

[54anickel]

34. The Anxious Index (HA! So much for economists and their forecasts)

http://www.hussman.net/rsi/anxiousindx.htm

Steady as she goes. That is the forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2005, according to a survey by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank. Output is projected to expand at a consistent 3.4 percent rate throughout the year.

How much faith should investors put in these forecasts? Like weathermen, economists are remembered for their misses more than their hits. Unfortunately, economists tend to miss the biggest storms.

That's according to 2002 research from the Atlanta Federal Reserve: Evaluating Wall Street Journal Survey Forecasters: A Multivariate Approach. The study looked at 16 years of predictions in the Wall Street Journal's economic survey. Each was ranked from 0 to 100, with 100 showing the highest accuracy and 0 showing the lowest. When the economy was growing in a stable manner, accuracy scores were between 60 and 80. At turning points, accuracy collapsed to the mid-teens. The errors were especially dramatic at the start of recessions, including the summer of 1990 and January, 2001.

big snip>

In the most recent survey, forecasters think that there is a 10 percent chance of recession in the first quarter of 2005, up from 8 percent three months ago. For the remaining three quarters of 2005, economists place between an 11 percent and 13 percent chance of a recession.

A 10 percent chance is still low, but is worth watching closely. Forecasts can shift quickly between the quarterly surveys. Between the second and third quarter of 1981, the probability economists placed on a decline in GDP in the next quarter tripled from 20 percent to 60 percent. The economists would later learn that a recession had already begun.

[54anickel]

35. A Tsunami of Greed

http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0452/mondo2.php

snip>

The money being put up by the U.S. is nothing when compared to what’s going on in the corridors of Wall Street, where year-end bonuses for the securities industry are the big story in New York. Readers of The New York Times were greeted Tuesday morning with above-the-fold images of destruction in Asia and below-the-fold accountings of personal riches.

This year the New York state comptroller reports bonuses are estimated to total $15.9 billion. In a press release, the comptroller reports, “The $15.9 billion to be paid in 2004 divided among the approximately 158,000 securities industry employees in New York City works out to an average bonus of $100,400. This is slightly higher than last year's average of almost $99,700, and just short of the record of $101,000 paid in 2000 at the peak of the last Wall Street boom."

And what are the rich financiers going to do with their money? According to the report in Tuesday’s Times, one senior investment banker said, "I have a sailboat, a motor boat, an apartment, an S.U.V. What could I possibly need?" Then he thought of something: "Maybe a little Porsche for the Hamptons house, but probably not."

Another said he bought his wife a mink coat, but explained he wasn’t buying homes or boats. “We are more relaxed and generous on the small things,” he said.

For the plutocrats on Wall Street, who so often make millions shunting money in and out of cheap-labor Asia, the horrid catastrophe in the Indian Ocean must seem very far away. But one never knows—perhaps the disaster will turn into an enticing investment opportunity in the days ahead. And in any event, donations for the charity relief effort could spell a big tax break.

more...

[fedsron2us]

37. To those who already have way too much more is given.

The injustice of this world sometimes takes my breath away. If some of these plutocrats do not want boats then why don't they buy a few for all those subsistence fishermen in Asia who lost their livelihoods when the tsunami struck.

[54anickel]

38. We have returned to the Robber Baron Days - very sad...n/t

[54anickel]

36. UK tsunami donations reach £45m

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4136545.stm

The British public has donated £45m to help the victims of the Asian tsunami, say relief charities.

Up to £1m an hour has been donated and the government has raised its pledge from £15m to £50m, making it one of the largest international donors.

A three-minute silence is to be held on Wednesday to remember the 124,000 known to have died - including 34 Britons.

snip>

On Friday alone £13m was received by the Tsunami Earthquake Appeal, set up by the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC), an umbrella group for leading charities.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Alleviating Tsunami-related Suffering Vital to U.S. War on Terrorism

http://kwrintl.com/library/2004/kwrsr.html

The U.S. government would be well advised to dedicate itself to alleviating the suffering now taking place as a result of the Tsunami flooding in South and Southeast Asia. This would constitute a much-needed humanitarian gesture and provide support for the dispossessed. It would also constitute a major effort in the struggle to win the war against terrorism.

Indonesia, which has suffered the greatest amount of Tsunami-related damage and the largest loss of life, is also the world’s largest Islamic country. It is a secular-oriented democracy, which successfully held its first direct presidential election this year despite three major terrorist bombings - in Bali (2002), the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta (2003) and Australian Embassy (2004). That is exactly the kind of society the U.S. should go out of its way to support. Southern Thailand was also hit hard. It too has a large Muslim population, which in recent months has been subject to substantial social unrest and tension. Malaysia and Bangaldesh, as well as India, Sri Lanka and Myanmar were also affected.

A dramatic initiative to reach out to those effected would generate tremendous good will around the world. Images of U.S. troops, relief agencies and NGOs reaching out with a helping hand could at a minimum prove an effective start to replacing and countering the negative images such as those of the Abu Ghraib prison and others that have caused such damage over the past few years. This would be far more effective than previous public diplomacy efforts such as the failed $15 million "Shared Values" television advertising campaign which sought to portray happy Muslim-Americans to viewers in Islamic countries.

snip>

While these and other efforts now under way are to be applauded, they remain largely unknown. Most media accounts have instead focused on what was perceived as a “miserly” U.S. contribution of $15 million, which was then reluctantly raised by another $20 million. Instead of a perception that this effort is an important U.S. priority, attention has been focused on a statement by an “annoyed” Colin Powell who after hearing a negative comment about the U.S. contribution remarked defensively " The United States has given more aid in the last four years than any other nation or combination of nations in the world”.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Whoa, what happened in the last 20 minutes? Straight down the crapper!!!

edit for blather and html

Dow 10,786.92 -13.38 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,174.78 -3.56 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,211.93 -1.62 (-0.13%)
10-yr Bond 42.16 -0.47 (-1.10%)
30-yr Bond 48.22 -0.58 (-1.19%)
NYSE Volume 670,877,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,219,629,000

3:30PM : Little change in the past half hour as the broader market averages remain resilient heading into the close of trading for 2004... After a long week of lackluster participation, investors can expect market activity to return to normal next week... Investors should get a better read on national manufacturing activity when the December ISM Index (consensus 58.5) is released at 10:00 ET on Monday while the Commerce Department will release November Construction Spending (consensus 0.5%) at 10:00 ET as well...
The only earnings report of note will come from Walgreen (WAG 38.72 -0.07) as analysts expect the drug retailer to report Q1 (Nov) earnings of $0.29 per share... NYSE Adv/Dec 2091/1133, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1787/1303

3:00PM : Buyers remain in control of the action as the indices trade at improved levels and market internals become considerably more bullish... Advancers on the NYSE now outpace decliners by a convincing margin while advancing issues on the Nasdaq hold an 18 to 12 edge over declining issues... Up volumes on both the Big Board and Composite hold a more than 2 to 1 edge over down volumes...

Blue chips extending 2004 gains heading into the last hour of trading include Exxon Mobil (XOM 51.38 +0.35), which has been one of the top five gainers on the Dow this year, while buying interest has also returned to help push four (INTC +0.8%, KO +0.2%, GM +0.2%, MRK +0.1%) of the Dow's five biggest laggards in 2004 to the upside...NYSE Adv/Dec 2190/1023, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1832/1233

2:30PM : Market improves its stance and approaches its best levels, although gains remain moderate at best... Most of today's sector action has been relatively limited outside of steel (+2.7%), which has shown resilience following Thursday's 5.5% sell off and is on pace to close out 2004 up more than 60%... Other sector gainers have included housing (+0.8%), networking (+0.7%), broker/dealer (+0.5%), and semiconductor (+0.6%)... The latter has declined 15% in the SOX and 21% in the S&P Semiconductor Index, while modest pressure remains in airline (-0.4%), drug (-0.3%) and utility (-0.2%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1974/1198, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1734/1301

2:00PM : While equities continue to trade sideways in afternoon trading, treasuries closed at their highs of the day... Late session trade, despite the validity of this week's light volume action being relatively untested until trading desks return to full capacity next week, helped push bonds higher... Thin volumes as year-end activity came to a close sent the 10-year note up 9 ticks to hit a 4.216% yield compared to the 4.247% yield that stood at the end of 2003...

Meanwhile, the euro sold off mid-session and relinquished all of the gains it made during the week, trading back to pre-Christmas levels, while action in the yen showed some resilience but failed to make any great moves...NYSE Adv/Dec 1841/1288, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1621/1382

1:35PM : Major indices recover somewhat but continue to bounce around the unchanged mark...Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY 56.73 -0.77) have been a focal point for investors after news surfaced that the drug maker possibly hid reports that its antidepressant Prozac posed a heightened risk of violence and suicide attempts... Drug stocks have been under pressure throughout 2004, with the Amex Pharmaceutical Index (DRG -0.4%) losing about 6% on the year...

Other laggards in the sector have been Merck (MRK 32.28 +0.06), Forest Labs (FRX 45.01 -0.49) and Pfizer (PFE 26.94 -0.07), which have lost 30%, 27% and 24%, respectively... Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 63.53 -0.01), however, a clear leader in 2004, has surged about 23% while Schering-Plough (SGP 20.92 +0.05) has climbed 18%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1754/1364, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1543/1451

1:00PM : Stocks lose their footing a bit as the indices fall below the flat line for the first time today... The Dow has briefly slipped to its lows of the session and continue to hover near yesterday's closing low of 10799 while the S&P has fallen to a session low near 1213... The Nasdaq, however, has yet to touch a session low but appears to be following suit as it heads towards yesterday's 2176 level... While selling interest has returned for the time being, stocks still look to end the year on positive note, with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq gaining roughly 3.3%, 9.1% and 8.7%, respectively... NYSE Adv/Dec 1683/1399, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1467/1519

12:30PM : While analyst actions have been hard to come by in recent days, a few comments have prompted investor interest in a select few... Shares of Vimpel Communications (VIP 36.66 +0.88), which fell off a cliff earlier this month when news surfaced that it could owe up to $157 mln in back taxes, have surged more than 2.0% after JP Morgan upgraded the wireless provider to Overweight from Neutral and set a $48 price target following a positive decision by Russian tax authorities...

Sapient (SAPE 7.83 -0.15), however, despite Raymond James starting coverage with a Market Perform rating and Thomas Weisel saying SAPE appears well-positioned for continued market share gains, have succumbed to year-end year profit taking as shares the software maker have surged nearly 40% since bottoming out in mid-summer...NYSE Adv/Dec 1698/1346, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1491/1454

[UpInArms]

41. closing numbers, blather and HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Dow 10,783.01 -17.29 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,175.44 -2.90 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,211.92 -1.63 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 42.16 -0.47 (-1.10%)

NYSE Volume 786,052,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,367,053,000

Close: The market began the year's last day of trading with an upbeat bias and closed out 2004 on a positive note despite some last-minute selling interest closing the indices a bit lower... Most of the session was again characterized by a rather quiet day of trade which kept market activity on the NYSE roughly 38% below its three-month average and volumes on the Nasdaq under 1 bln shares until only one hour of trading remained...

The absence of corporate news or economic data, coupled with uneventful action in overseas markets and an early close for the bond market, only added to today's lackluster activity... Steel (+2.0%), after being hit hard yesterday in the wake of potential over-supply concerns in China, was the largest gainer on the day, but it wasn't enough to keep the materials sector in the green... Semiconductor (+0.5%) was also strong with some assistance coming from Intel (INTC 23.39 +0.14), despite the chipmaker being the second biggest loser (-27%) on the Dow in 2004... Energy (+0.2%) eked out modest gains while the futures markets for trading oil contracts, which have acted as an impetus behind so many influential market swings, were closed...

Yesterday, the commodity closed out the year up more than 33%... On the downside, weakness in airline (-0.6%) pressured transportation (-0.3%) while selling interest in health care was spurred by news out of Eli Lilly (LLY 56.75 -0.75) that suggested its antidepressant Prozac was possibly linked to violent behavior... Utility, retail and biotech also closed lower on the day...

the buck

Last trade 80.86 Change +0.35 (+0.43%)

Settle 80.85 Settle Time 16:34

Open 80.58 Previous Close 80.53

High 81.11 Low 80.39

Last tick: 2004-12-31 16:44:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Hoping everyone has a better 2005 than 2004!

:party::party::party::party::party::party::party: