What if Iraq taps pro-Iran leaders?

[NNN0LHI]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/chitribts/20050101/ts_chicagotrib/whatifiraqtapsproiranleaders&cid=2027&ncid=1473

The Bush administration, already facing a relentless insurgency in Iraq (news - web sites), is preparing to confront what could be an equally daunting political challenge--the possible emergence from the Jan. 30 election of a pro-Iranian government dominated by Shiite fundamentalists.

Despite warning Tehran for months, some administration officials and outside experts say little can be done to limit the political influence in Iraq of Iran, one of two remaining members of President Bush (news - web sites)'s so-called axis of evil along with North Korea (news - web sites).

U.S. officials say Iran has given strong support to the two leading Shiite political parties in the United Iraqi Alliance, the slate that most analysts expect to garner the greatest share of votes in the election for a new national government.

Tehran's support includes an estimated $20 million for the current election for candidates from those parties--the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the Islamic Dawa Party--according to a State Department official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The slate was formed at the initiative of Iraq's most influential Shiite religious leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and public opinion polls consistently rate the parties' respective leaders, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and Ibrahim al-Jaafari, two of Iraq's most popular politicians.

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[Goathead]

1. Gunpoint Democracy

Take it! You take this freedom or we will cram it down your throats! Look at all your countrymen that we have killed so that you can be free and vote in Democratic elections. The nerve of the Iraqis, they hate us for giving them freedom.

[TomClash]

2. Not happening

You can bank on it.

[Annus Horribilis]

3. Won't Happen

Diebold will make sure of that!

[movonne]

4. If this does not happen, then they will call it a sham election and

things will keep going the way they are.

[VegasWolf]

11. thus, pissing off Iran and triggering WW3.

[0007]

5. This Armitage guy is a real loony toon!

"It will not be a theocracy like Iran at all," Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said of the election outcome during an interview with Arab journalists Tuesday in Washington.

He also said, "I think you're going to--and I think the world's going to--witness a really vibrant, vibrant exchange in Iraq, and I mean, a positive exchange."

[neweurope]

19. "vibrant exchange" - best description for civil war ever.

---------

Remember Fallujah!

[jmcgowanjm]

21. You don't have to remember Fallujah, it's still happenin'

IRR 123104
In a dispatch posted at 11:35pm Mecca time Friday,
Mafkarat a-Islam reported that Iraqi Resistance fighters
in al-Fallujah advanced 700 meters into the areas that the
US occupation troops had controlled, outside the an-
Nazal neighborhood after beating back an American attempt
to break into that
neighborhood.
 
The local Mafkarat al-Islam correspondent reported that
the Resistance at that point was encircling more than 20
US troops inside one house opposite the government offices
in the city.  They had succeeded in setting seven US
tanks ablaze, killing all aboard them.  They also seized and
killed three US troops.  Resistance forces are still trying to
hold the remainder of the US forces
there.

[neweurope]

23. I know...

But I don't want nobody ever ever to forget about that poor city. Ever.

--------

Remember Fallujah!

[jmcgowanjm]

24. Give 'em hell then, neweurope!

Saturday 01 January 2005 -AlJazeera- Fighting between
US forces and armed groups has broken out in and around
the Iraqi capital, intensifying on the road leading to
Baghdad airport.

Speaking to Aljazeera from Baghdad on Saturday, Iraqi
journalist Ziyad al-Samarrai said a fierce firefight broke out
just before midnight and continued until early
morning.

"In Baghdad's Haifa Street, a gun battle had erupted where
about 40 US military vehicles and 200 soldiers were
deployed, closing all roads,"
al-Samarrai said.

http://uruknet.info/?s1=2&p=8551&s2=02

Friday IRR:

One house had been destroyed when a US Black
Hawk helicopter crashed into it.  Mosque loud speakers
are proclaiming the call “God is greatest”
and calling out prayers for the victory of the Resistance
fighters.  US forces bombarded one of the mosques,
the al-Firdaws Mosque in the ash-Shuhada’ neighborhood,
but the loudspeakers continued to work and issue the “God
is greatest” call, the correspondent
reported.
 
Shaykh Abu Nur of the Consultative Council of the Mujahideen
of al-Fallujah said that the battles so far had left four
Humvees and six new-style US tanks on fire killing all
those inside.  One Black Hawk helicopter was shot down
over the an-Nazal
neighborhood

[Bigmack]

6. Duuuuuh...

... Shiites have a large majority of the population, and only Saddam and the minority Sunni kept the Shiia mullahs from controlling the country. Remove Saddam and the best you can hope for is a bloody civil war followed by a fundamentalist takeover.

Anybody who has looked at the history of the area has known this since before Gulf War I.

The only good part of this is that Bush is gonna be stuck with this goatfuck.

[Donna Zen]

7. The bad part of this

is that the more moderate Gulf states are also going to be stuck with this. Sistani will win and at first he will lay low while achieving legitimacy. But eventually, Iran will exert control in Iraq. That will force those Gulf states to assume a new posture in light of the power shift in the region.

Ironic and sad, that bush in some "supposed" (lie) move to increase "democracy" in this area, will not only decrease the chances that it will occur, but through stupidity has helped Tehran.

I doubt that the MSM will explain any of this to the American people; it will once again be touted as the dummy and rummy's ultimate triumph. It makes me want to puke.

[NNN0LHI]

9. The only kind of "democracy" Bush is interested in is one where...

...he personally picks the dictator (preferably either a current or former oil company employee) whom he then calls president.

Don

[Just Me]

13. He wants a "profitable" outcome.

He and his never really gave a damn about "democracy" (which is pretty freakin' obvious by their disdain for it here via their Machivellian power crusade in this country).

It's not about "the people". It's about profit and power, period.

[David__77]

16. Greater Iranian influence would be good compared to Saudi influence.

There's FAR more democracy in the Islamic Republic of Iran that in the Saudi "kingdom." There are atrocities, but things have moved forward. The status of women in Iran is far better than in Saudi Arabia, where they cannot even hold important employment. Women make up almost half of the Iranian university population. There is not even a parliament in the "kingdom."

[jmcgowanjm]

22. The Failure of Empire

Wider speculation at this point would be foolhardy. But there
is no doubt that in invading Iraq the United States opened
the doors of hell not only for the Iraqis and the Middle East as
a whole but also for its own global imperialist order. The
full repercussions of the failure of the U.S. empire in Iraq
have yet to be seen and will only become evident in the
months and years
ahead.



http://www.uruknet.info/.?p=8564&hd=0&size=1&l=x

[Sandpiper]

8. Do you really think the "election" doesn't have a predetermined outcome?

Do you really think we've spent $200 billion dollars and sacrificed 1300 troops just so Iraqis could hold an election?

There is no possible way that anyone with ideas inimical to U.S. economic and geopolitical interests will be allowed to hold power.

[redstateblues]

10. Didn't Rummy Say a While Back"It Would Not Be Permitted"?

[VegasWolf]

12. The US needs to get the hell out of Iraq. Chimp's evil oil plans

will never succeed.

[reprobate]

14. One possible outcome sees us in the worst trouble possible.

Imagine an election with sistani coming out the winner. The shia take over iraqs gov't.

Soon they demand that we leave their country immediately. We refuse. They turn to iran with pleas to help them oust the invaders (us). A million iranians swarm over the border and overwhelm our forces who suffer the worst casualty numbers ever before we can withdraw.

We nuke them.

The whole world turns on us. Embargoes us.

Demands the bush cabal be turned over to the world court to face war criminal charges.

Our economy has been so destroyed by the cabal that we can't pay any of our debts and are placed in receivership (or the equivalent for nations).

The world, weary of the constant meddleing by the US replaces our gov't with a social democracy similar to most of europe.

After all that trouble the people of this country wind up winning!

I'm an optimistic cynic.

[David__77]

17. If "the world" replaced our government, it would not be "european-style"

It would most certainly be a military occupation, along the lines of post-WW2 Europe. I think things have not nearly come to such a point. But sometimes history moves VERY quickly and most people are taken aback.

[jmcgowanjm]

25. The shia take over iraqs gov't

Civil War benefits only outside powers.

A communiqué issued by the Consultative Council of the Mujahideen of al-Fallujah


The communiqué noted that there are two leaderships in
the Resistance, one military and the other religious.  It
warned the latter against transgressing its limits, noting that “it
is impermissible for the religious leadership to interfere
in military plans as to advancing or retreating, withdrawing
or attacking.”  It noted however, that “the two leaderships
are united in the Consultative Council of the Mujahideen
of al-Fallujah and that no created being is obliged to
obey another created being except insofar as that benefits
the Muslims,” to quote the communiqué.
-IRR123104

[David__77]

15. This would probably be a good thing, but not for the neo-conservatives.

I am glad that the Shia are intending on participating. It is imperative that no stamp of approval be put on an unpopular puppet government. I hope Allawi doens't even get into parliament, much less the central government. The best hope for the neo-cons is that Allawi and the Iraqi "Communists" do well in elections. What is really needed is a secular left opposed to the occupation in order to merge together the anti-occupation forces.

[durutti]

18. No real election is planned.

Any election conducted while there's still a U.S. military presence in the country is necessarily a sham.

[Seabiscuit]

20. So friggin' what - it's their country; we screwed them; let them decide.