U.S. manufacturing up for 19th straight month

[Bono71]

Looks like manufacturing is picking up...this is a good thing, in my opinion.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6780899/

[illflem]

1. Probably due to the devalued dollar

too bad none of the benefits are trickling down to the middle class

[Bono71]

2. You are right...the dollar has something to do with it. I think

the middle class is probably in better shape than it was 12 months ago, though things could be better.

[mhr]

4. Unemployed 55 Months - Things Looking Up - One Must Be Kidding

eom

[Sweet Pea]

35. Zowie!

How in the heck could someone go 55 months being unemployed????? I haven't had that happen since high school!

[mhr]

42. It's Easy - No One Wants To Hire You

I am a refugee from two of the hardest hit industries in the US - Telecom and aviation.

My CV includes the following:
BSEE
MBA
15 + years of professional work experience
Commercial Pilot
Honorably discharged Naval Officer

Over 2,500 resumes out the door. No significant interest in over two years.

The following graph from the Dallas Federal Reserve illustrates how hard my hometown has been hit by Bush policies.

[yinkaafrica]

43. i would never have imagined a person with your credentials..

would be unable to find a great job in this country

[fatherjohn]

45. Unemployment in Dallas

I don't want to seem uncaring, but an index that shows 97 versus a 2000 100 hardly seems like a disaster. Of course when one is unemployed it is a personal disaster, but that chart does not really make your case. It makes the opposite.

[mhr]

48. Think Carefully About Your Post - The Import Of The Chart Has Not Sunk In

For the last four years, employment growth in Dallas has been negative. Said differently, there are fewer people employed in Dallas, TX today than at the beginning of January 2000!

For the country, I have seen estimates that there are upward of 17 million people unemployed or underemployed.

Personally, I have sent over 2,500 resumes out the door. I stopped counting last June because it just became too depressing.

You can think what you want about me personally. However, I have to live the nightmare daily. The reality is that for those of us that worked in High-Tech, the economy has not recovered. Sure, Wall Street is doing OK. Many people forget that Wall-Street is not Main Street.

[Clark2008]

52. I understand this

I also know that underemployment is probably more significant than unemployment.
College degrees - from bachelor's degrees to post-graduate degrees - aren't worth the paper they're being printed on. In fact, I've often threatened to just leave that off my resume to see if it gets my foot in the door easier.
I am working, but, at my age, I had hoped that each week would not be a constant struggle and I have no money to save for mine or my son's futures.

[area51]

51. unemployment

If you haven't been looking for a job in this economy, you probably have no idea how hard it is to get employment. The press certainly isn't talking about how few jobs have been created/difficulty in obtaining a job. But wait, Tricky Dick F'n Cheney says all we have to do is sell each other sh*t on Ebay to be employed.... </sarcasm>

"Prosperity is just around the corner." -- Herbert Hoover
"The economy has turned a corner." -- GW Bush

Herbert Hoover = GW Bush

Neither man cared about the Depression their economic policies created.

[TexasChick]

53. It's been 25 for me now and counting. n/t

[StClone]

7. Military spending and a few big companies

John Deere Company is flying as are other companies that sell premium products world-wide with the benefit of the Dollar's slide. The State of Wisconsin has also had more manufacturing in the last year than any other Midwest State.

But higher interest rates, record debt, China, higher oil, lower new home construction (seasonal?), record trade imbalance and poor Government planning will off-set any gains. Seems people that have jobs are working overtime and new jobs are slow to come.

This may be cyclic and mean little in the long run.

[AP]

11. Wages and employment are stagnating or dropping. Personal debt is up.

Savings is way down (lowest it has ever been).

Dollar has dropped something like 30% in last year and a half against pound and Euro. But manufacturing probably hasn't gone up that much (because we've already sent most of our factories overseas).

So a few corps are making a lot of money making soccer balls for Europeans, and most of the profit is in the huge difference between income earned from sales and wages paid to workers. That means more an more wealth is concentrated in fewer hands.

We've seen this before: in the run-up to the great depression.

Whoopee!

[Bono71]

16. I am no economist, but I would venture a guess that in real

dollars the current "concentration of wealth" is nowhere near what it was before the great depression.

Anybody out there no what the numbers are and were?

[AP]

21. Wealth & Democracy by K. Phillips, published in 2002 (IIRC), says that the

numbers were reaching pre-depression levels.

[Just Me]

22. Well,...there was a widening gap then,...and there is one now.

This is a brief look at what happened in the 20s:

Uneven wealth distribution
The uneven distribution of wealth in the 1920s existed on many levels. Money was distributed unevenly among the the rich and poor, between industry and agriculture within the United States, and between the United States. and Europe. Labor Unions were week and were unable to demand fair salaries. Corporation and the wealthy were able to influence Goverment policies and decissions whch help to maintain the concentration of wealth in a few hands. A Brookings Institution study found that in 1929 the very wealthy (the top 0.1 percent of Americans) had a combined income equal to the bottom 42.0 percent. That same wealthy class in 1929 controlled 34 percent of all bank savings, while 80 percent of Americans had no savings at all, no cuchiom for emergencies. The uneven distributionof wealth also acted to reduce demand in the economy. inplybput, wokers that earned little, spent little.


A major reason for the large and growing gap between the rich and the working class in America was low wages. Here the ability of companies backed by Government to curtail the union movement was a major factor. Manufacturing output increased throughout the 1920s. From 1923-29 the average manufacturing output per worker in America increased 32 percent. At the same time average wages for workers, most without string unions, with manufacturing jobs increased only 8 percent. Thus, wages increased at a rate only as fourth as fast as productivity increased. Thus there were fewer consumers for the increasing supply of goods being produced. The benefits of the increasingly efficent production went into corporate profits. Stock ownership, however, was concentrated in the hands of the relatively small moneyed class. Corporate profits from 1923-29 rose 62 percent and dividends rose 65 percents.

http://histclo.hispeed.com/essay/war/war-dep.html


Now, a summary of what is happening today:

Mr. Wolff, whose study, unlike the Merrill Lynch/Capgemini report, includes homeownership, says the gap between the very rich and the rest of the population probably won't close -- and could widen in coming years. While the ultra-wealthy are prospering, average real wages in the U.S. haven't kept pace. Real estate, which makes up a far bigger share of wealth for middle-class households, could take a hit with rising interest rates. President Bush's tax-cut programs disproportionately benefit those at the top of the wealth pyramid.

"We have to be concerned about whether this latest growth is concentrated at the top," says Mr. Wolff. "If it's concentrated at the top, we could see widening disparities of wealth in the population."

Underscoring the concentration of wealth among the very rich, a study last fall by Arthur Kennickell of the Federal Reserve Board shows the nation's wealthiest 1% owned about $2.3 trillion in stocks, or about 53% of all individually or family-held shares. The wealthiest 1% owned 64% of bonds held by families or individuals, and 31% of total financial assets held by families or individuals, which includes everything from stocks to bonds to cash.

http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/inequal/2004/0615millionaires.htm

[jdj]

41. Okay, remember when they added fast food jobs in as manufacturing?

Are they serving Whoppers as the official meal at the White House now? That might account for the rise..."whoppers: we like to eat them and we love to tell them!"

[4morewars]

3. Wages down, unemployment up !

Work longer and harder, what ? you're sick ? You're fired !

Who's gonna buy all the imported plastic crap when we are all unemployed ?

[fob]

5. How long has the war on terra been going on? Let's see March 2003

to December 2004 is 21 months, so allowing for the build-up and "awarding" of contracts with spending reaching $5 billion a month, a 2 month lag is about right.

bush* shows you can spend your way to a better economy, just imagine if the spending was on DOMESTIC issues rather than a phony war to restore his wussy daddy's name.

[Barkley]

10. Good insights fob!

Your analysis makes sense.

And spending on domestic issues like education, better roads and health care would make us a more productive economy in the long-run.

[sandnsea]

6. Manufacturing what?

Bullets, armor, MRE's, supplies for the war?

[0007]

8. ....The Carlyle boys and the Halliburton girls are doing well

with the manufacturing weaponry of war. Things are indeed looking up!

[Bono71]

9. It can't all be military manufacturing, can it?

[Tempest]

12. The vast majority of it is

The rest is due to the housing construction sector.

Everyone else is suffering, as can be seen when the manufacturing data is analyzed.

For example, the textile industry is in a major slump.


And the contruction sector is expected to slow down in 2005 from 2004.

[Laughing Mirror]

24. In your neck of the woods it is

From a related thread in LBN that might further enlighten you.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1117807

Technology Firms Expect Growth In Government Specialty Work

Six years ago two government contracting veterans, former CACI International Inc. executives, founded SI International Inc. in Reston. Although the region was packed with companies building technology systems for the government, they thought there was room for another. SI International now has 2,000 employees and is hiring 200 to 300 more.

The fact that federal contract spending isn't expected to grow as fast as it has in recent years doesn't bother SI's executives. Although funding may drop off or become flat in some areas, they expect government demand to remain strong for their specialty -- designing, building and securing communication networks.

"The guys who are not getting the budget attention are the guys who build big platforms, like atomic submarines," said Thomas E. Dunn, SI International's chief financial officer. "We're very bullish about hiring for the next 12 months."

Federal spending on contractors is expected to grow more quickly than it has historically, though not quite at the booming pace of the three years after Sept. 11, 2001. And the growth will likely be uneven, with contractors that specialize in technology services growing the most in 2005, according to experts....

[0007]

25. You tell me, your the one running this thread. What do I know?

[Bono71]

26. Lol..you probably know more than I do about such things n/t

[sandnsea]

31. "all"

Great way to divert attention away from the extent military spending is influencing economic numbers. All? Of course not. But it's just the word righties will use in order to roll their eyes and say "well it's not all military spending". Which doesn't begin to investigate or answer the question.

[Bono71]

32. Hey, I detect a hostile tone...not trying to argue, I just have

a hard time believing a "vast majority" of manufacturing is war related. I admit I could be wrong, and if I am, so be it (it wouldn't be the first time.)

[sandnsea]

34. "all" "vast majority"

Again, vague words to justify dismissing military spending in economic numbers. I went through this in the 80's. Great numbers, GDP, bla bla; while people were saying 'where's the jobs?'. I was young then, now I get it. It was a military deficit economy, just like now.

[leesa]

13. Well...we're manufacturing LOT'S of hamburgers!

Remember, they changed the definitions of "manufacturing"

[GoddessOfGuinness]

14. yup

That's exactly what I was thinking...

[ramapo]

15. Did that actually go into effect?

I thought it drew so much laughter that the plan was dropped.

[Deja Q]

38. In *'s america, some might laugh but they'll do it anyway.

[Southpaw Bookworm]

19. I was about to ask

That very same question, as to how much of the increase can be attributed to fudging the numbers.

[pa28]

36. Yeah. It's hard to tell at this point what is real and what is fiction.

Maybe some sharp economist out there will correlate manufacturing spikes with .99 cent sales at McDonald's.

[The_Casual_Observer]

17. "despite drop in employment"

As I understand it, Boeing received some new orders. All sorts of businesses are affected by this. The drop in employment isn't a very happy signal though.

[spanone]

18. Guess that's why my brother & sister filed bankruptcy last year.

Things are just rosey. Robust was the word, yes!

[GoldenOldie]

20. Manufacturing/Production Up???????

But they never tell us just what is being Manufactured or Produced.

Is the new manufactured items or things being produced just as quickly being outsourced????

[Laughing Mirror]

28. Here's a link to the actual report the article is based on

I'm not able to figure out what it means either.

http://www.napm.org/ISMReport/ROB012005.cfm

[SoCalDem]

23. and the "war" and its build up have been going on for how long?..n/t

:(

[DownNotOut]

27. War is profitable

to Bush and his buddies. Its having an effect on 'the numbers'.


DownNotOut

[Yavin4]

29. The Economic Propaganda Just Makes Me Sick

The whore media does their very best to convince people that the economy is "strong" and "growing", when it hasn't really grown since mid-year 2000. All that has happened to the economy for the past four years is historically low interest rates which has allowed people to refinance their homes and buy and buy and buy.

The best measure of economic growth is JOB CREATION. When corporations are creating real jobs, they're making the statement that they have a long-term faith in the growth of their company.

The only people who are doing well are the people with wealth.

[Bono71]

30. I would imagine, though, that low interest rates have been good

for growth outside of refinancing and consumer spending. Granted if inflation becomes a problem rates will rise (as they are now).

[Yavin4]

44. WRONG!! It's Not A Good Thing When There's No Jobs

The worst thing that people can do is run up a lot of debt during a time when the economy is not producing jobs. The situation that we're in right now is not sustainable. You cannot have huge consumer debts, huge government debts, and not have to pay some kind of price for it.

[mulethree]

33. Chart

Values over 50 indicate INCREASING, so a drop - say Prices from 74 to 72 means "Still increasing strongly, just not quite as strong"

Notice how PMI, Production and Employment are related.
Notice how they split off in 3 seperate directions recently.

I left out some series for clarity, of note - orders and backlogs are both up recently

[slay]

37. What we are manufacturing here in the US is POVERTY.

The federal minimum wage, which in 1968 stood at 86% of the wage necessary to lift a worker and his or her family to the official poverty line for a family of four, today represents less than 64% of that "living wage." The federal minimum wage, presently $5.15 an hour, would need to be raised to $8.20 an hour simply to meet the federal poverty level. In many higher-cost regions, a true living wage is substantially higher (up to $18 per hour).
http://www.responsiblewealth.org/living_wage/

People work more, work harder, and get paid less. Most of us are not working so that we can afford a luxury yacht like the Bush family has, we are working TO SURVIVE.

[sarcasmo]

39. Manufacturing is going away in Michigan these #'s are misleading

These #'s are only for the sheep. If you tell W's flock that the manufacturing #'s are great they believe he is doing great. Here in Michigan one plant after another leaves for Mexico or overseas. We have not had one plant here in West Michigan that employees over 150. Greenville had plants close and go to Mexico. We have to give insane tax breaks just to keep these plants from leaving. It will be glorious watching this administration blow up all over itself.

[Megawatt]

40. Is the "American System" the way to go

From the 1800s-- high tariffs to build/protect (actually rebuild) - the American manufacturing base? I know most people don't want to give up their $59 DVD players from Wal Mart but IMO something has to be done about the loss of a sector of our economy which traditionally provided high paying "good" jobs.

And I don't see EITHER party really giving a rats ass about it. They both seem to be in the pocket of their corporate masters who want to outsource ALL manufacturing jobs to China . With just the service jobs and construction left BOTH parties want to have open borders so an oversupply of workers can drive down wages in our race to the bottom. I remember when a drywall finisher could support a family on one income in a middle class lifestyle - try doing that nowadays.

OK thats probably not politically correct on this board and I'm willing to listen to arguments on why protectionism is bad - but what I won't back down from is my contention that the democratic party of my steel worker dad and grandpa - which stood up for AMERICAN workers first - is missing in action - taken over by corporate concerns and donors.

[Barkley]

50. I agree shifting to a service-sector economy is not better.

I don't have the numbers but here's a story why.

In the manufacturing process each factor is paid according to the value it adds.

So in the case of a car or fridge as it goes down the assembly line from a clump of raw material to a finished product value is added and people get paid accordingly.

There's a gradual increase in value which makes the difference income less stark.

A call center phone operator is pretty much on their own in serving a customer and the value added is relatively small.

One of my students works for Verizon in Long Beach. He says that they have their lower-paying jobs $8/hr in Al, Tx, Mex, but the good paying jobs $25/hr and up in CA.

The problem is that there are plenty of people in L.A. with skills that match the $8.00 jobs that remain unemployed.

Welcome to the DU megawatt

So in L.A. the difference between the halves and have nots is sharp, distinct and growing.

Neither party cares, because a growing segment of American society see themselves soley responsible for their economic welfare.

If they're unemployed its not the gov't's fault/ responsibility.

[Chovexani]

46. Big Macs don't make themselves. (n/t)

[Thor_MN]

47. flip side, workers screwed for over year and a half, CEO's light cigarette

steal both pillows, the blanket, and the dry side of the bed.

[donheld]

49. U.S. manufacturing numbers isn't the first book these guys have cooked

Should we really believe them on these numbers?