Dec. DOL Payroll new jobs Jobs only 157,000 - below expectations

[papau]

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Friday, January 7, 2005.


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: DECEMBER 2004

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in December, and the unem-
ployment rate was unchanged at 5.4 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth continued in sev-
eral service-providing industries.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons, 8.0 million, and the unemployment
rate, 5.4 percent, were unchanged in December. The jobless rate has been
either 5.4 or 5.5 percent in each month since July, slightly below the rates
that prevailed in the first half of 2004.

In December, the unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men
(4.9 percent), adult women (4.7 percent), teenagers (17.6 percent), whites
(4.6 percent), blacks (10.8 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (6.6 percent)--
showed little or no change over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians
was 4.1 percent in December, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2,
and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed--those unemployed 27 weeks and over--was
about unchanged over the month. This group accounted for 20.2 percent of the
total unemployed.

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Total employment, at 140.2 million in December, was little changed over the
month but was 1.7 million higher than a year earlier. The proportion of the
working-age population that was employed (the employment-population ratio) was
62.4 percent in December, about the same as a year earlier. Both the civilian
labor force, at 148.2 million in December, and the labor force participation
rate, at 66.0 percent, were about unchanged from the previous month. (See
table A-1.)

The number of persons who work part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 mil-
lion, was about unchanged in December but was down by 308,000 over the year.
This category includes persons who indicated that they would like to work full
time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or be-
cause they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-5.)

Over the year, the number of persons who held more than one job increased
by 574,000 to 7.8 million, not seasonally adjusted. These multiple jobholders
represented 5.6 percent of total employment in December. (See table A-13.)

[mhr]

1. So Employment Rose By Only 1.2 % During 2004! - Where Are The Jobs George

"Total employment, at 140.2 million in December, was little changed over the month but was 1.7 million higher than a year earlier."

We should have had 10.2 million new jobs - see article below.

Employment Picture Still Dreary
Comstock Funds
1/6/05

Whatever the December payroll employment report shows tomorrow, it can’t come close to making a dent in the serious jobs shortfall of the current economic expansion. Here’s why. The NBER officially designated November 2001 as the bottom of the last recession, meaning that the November report marked the third anniversary of the upturn. During this 36-month period total non-farm payroll employment increased only 0.9%, a number that pales in comparison to past cycles. Over the last seven economic expansions the average rise for a comparable period was 8.7%. If that were the case on the current cycle there would have been 10.2 million more jobs than the total number reported for November, and the average monthly increase for the 36-month period would have been 316,000 per month. Instead the average monthly rise was a paltry 33,000, and even over the past 12 months when employment picked up somewhat, the average monthly increase came to only 171,000, a far cry from the typical cyclical increase. In fact only three months of the 36 showed increases of more than 300,000 jobs.

Snip ......

http://www.comstockfunds.com/screenprint.cfm?newsletterid=1155

[papau]

2. Unkown Self Employed at home went up - 78000 of 157000 is this guess!

2003 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Total
128 192 164 -83 124 33 45 30 62



2004 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Total
-321 115 153 270 195 182 -91 120 39 42 54 78

Indeed - This is supposed to be an estimate caused by a lag in payroll reporting of self employed jobs. But since the DOL refuses to simply update the earlier estimates when the Feb payroll tapes and 1099/W2 paper allows a true up to exact number, the effect is an addition to the jobs gained under Bush -

but they are jobs gained that do not report in!

Can we say pretend jobs!

And one should add all 24 months adjustments to see just how fake the Bush job gain to date really is!

[durablend]

4. Them's Ebay sellers!

Yessiree! Even Dickless F U Cheney sez you can get rich off them there internets!

[papau]

18. 1,531,000 pretend jobs are in the job gains over the last 2 years.

Funny how these folks just never get around to reporting payroll taxes and w-2 wages.

[rooboy]

3. below expectations - the story of George Bush's life. n/t

[UpInArms]

5. 36,0000 of those jobs were government - not private sector

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38359.3741709838-830743897&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. job growth remains soft, despite an "OK" payroll report for December, said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. Shepherdson notes that the 157,000 rise in December payrolls was "flattered" by very favorable seasonal adjustment factors and the addition of 36,000 state and local government jobs. "Overall looks OK but core job gains are softer than headlines and wage gains are still worryingly soft," he said. Wages grew just 0.1 percent in December.

Good morning, papau!

[papau]

7. Good Morning - Time for breakfast!

:toast:

:-)

[durablend]

8. What's this "wage gains are still worringly soft" BS?

What the hell do these "economists" (emphasis on the quotes) expect? Somehow companies are going to feel more willing to pay their employees more as opposed to inflating the value of their stocks and/or padding the CEO bonuses (can't have the bank foreclose on that sixth yacht, you know)????

But of course this is the "new RW reality" so what the hell do I know? :eyes:

[papau]

15. How to increase consumer demand w/o paying higher wages -a GOP

problem.

Of course the high end stores are doing well.

[bleedingheart]

6. This is what people voted for...

[NYC]

9. And this is what we will be cursed with for a long time to come.

[durablend]

10. Don't worry...be happy!

At least those silly gays can't get married!

:crazy:

[Just Me]

11. You are getting veeeeeeery sleepy. 10, 9, 8, 7, 6,....

,...everything is fine. There are plenty of jobs. The economy is in great shape. The American people are happy. You are happy. Everything is good. Everything is fine. Ignore any information which indicates otherwise.

Now, when I snap my fingers, you will fully awake and remember nothing of this session.

[leesa]

12. Interesting how there are continuous large scale layoffs and no new jobs,

but unemployment remains constant. Quite a miracle that is!

[Yavin4]

13. There's An Explanaton for That

It's called TEMP JOBS, which are rapidly becoming standard employment. If you work a temp job for one day within the UE survey period, then you're considered employed and are not counted in the official UE rate. Thus, you can have layoffs and no change in the UE rate all at the same time.

[Just Me]

14. Fudging Figures? Hmmmmm. *smirk* n/t

[daleo]

16. December job growth was 34,000 in Canada

Given that the U.S. has ten times the population, and that the U.S. dollar was falling against the Canadian dollar, it would be have been reasonable to have expected more than 157,000 new jobs created in the U.S. economy during December.

[Robert Oak]

17. wiping out the middle class

outsourcing, illegal immigration, h-1b, l-1 Visas and all of the rest
are destroying the middle class.

Real question to be asking is how to fight the incredible propaganda machine multinationals and Karl Rove machine puke out to manipulate
the American people into thinking all of this is ok?

Or to convince them that they must lose their income in order to
fight for that nebulous anti-abortion goal....

how do you get through that fundamentalist concrete brain of absolutes and no reason?

We just had an election where they swept all 3 legislative branches by doing this.

How do you fight a machine that thinks it's perfectly ok to use any means necessary to "win"?

What do you do with a power structure that throws out every moral and ethical principle in order to win?

What do you do with a press that doesn't report the truth to the American people?