Monday Isabel LBN Thread: Isabel May Hit U.S. This Week

[VolcanoJen]

Hurricane Watchers: Please post all your Monday Isabel LBN updates in this thread. When posting new information about the storm's track, it would be helpful to use the word "UPDATE" in your subject line.

Here's a link to the Sunday Isabel LBN Thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=113796

Here's the latest information on the storm; next official update is at 5:00 a.m.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030915/ap_on_re_us/tropical_weather&cid=519&ncid=716

At 11 p.m. EDT, Isabel's maximum sustained wind speed was 155 mph — 1 mph below the minimum for Category 5 — and down 5 mph from earlier measurements. Experts had said it would be extremely unusual for Isabel to maintain Category 5 strength as it moved north over cooler water.

The storm was centered about 850 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. Hurricane-force wind of at least 74 mph extended 115 miles out from the center.

From the NOAA website, here is a satellite image of Isabel at 5:15 pm Sunday:



And finally, there's another helpful thread that's tracking Isabel in General Discussion:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=335471&mesg_id=335471

Thanks everyone for your updates and cooperation during this developing situation,
VolcanoJen
DU Moderator

[SideshowScott]

1. Oh Man it dont look good for me!!! Virginia Beach VA, Oceanfront!

dag im like 5 blocks from the ocean..Not really into evacuateing.But if i gotta grab the cat and dip out i will..Illl keep everyone posted on whats going on

[jab105]

8. Don't wait too long, you'd be amazed at the mass exodus right before....

the storm strikes, like 5 hour bumper to bumper traffic to move 2 miles...board up, get the kitty, get a few things and take a vacation, you cant mess around with a storm this powerful, not where you are!

[Gin]

11. hey Scott..Im in Va Beach too...more inland than you though...

stay safe.

[laylah]

22. My sister is a Chiro

there in VA Beach.....she'll be heading to Damascus, MD to her daughter's house, tomorrow. You be safe!

jennifer

[Resistance Is Futile]

2. Forcast track w/ wind speeds

This is from Environment Canada and is automatically updated as new forcast models are run.

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/current6.html

Current predictions are that Isabel will bring wind speeds of 90 knots well into the VA/ND/DE area and 35 knots--tropical storm class--at least as far inland as Ontario.

[Don_G]

12. Another Good Site

For wind speeds, satellite photos and water temperatures check theeir main site at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu

The images are udated as data from the Air Force trackers and NOAA come in.

[IndianaGreen]

3. Isabel's effects will be felt as far north as Buffalo, NY

after Isabel destroys the coastline with its surf, winds, heavy rain, and tornados, it will move further inland continuing to dump heavy rains and spawning tornados along its path.

I live in Indiana, far away from the coast, yet we have been on the receiving end of the tropical downpours that these systems produce as their rotation continues long after it loses its wind speeds. Flooding and tornados are quite common the biggest killers that these storms produce.

[DannyRed]

4. Has Isabel

hit the warmer waters of the gulf stream yet?

One thing to watch for is how fast it is moving and how long it hovers over gulf stream waters...

Warmer water = nastier storm...

Faster moving = harder hit...

Balancing the speed of the storm with the energy it picks up from the Gulf Stream will determine how nasty it gets...and where it hits...

[Resistance Is Futile]

7. Ontario is north of Buffalo...

As I said, the forcast track shows the eye going over Sudbury, Ontario (~200mi north west of Buffalo) as a tropical storm with winds of 35 kts. Depending on how things go, Isabel could even reach Hudson Bay as a tropical depression.

[radfringe]

5. UPDATE maps on strike forcast

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm13/projectedpath_large.html

[radfringe]

6. local forcast on Isabel for NE-PA

last night's forcast from oour local news station said that they expected the storm winds to be about 60mph by the time it hits us

of course this depends on what part of the coast it hits first and how far inland it travels before it reaches us

[goobergunch]

9. UPDATE-5 AM EDT forecast, latest satellite picture

[Deb]

10. Could you please share the link

to that wind map? It's the only map of inland wind predictions I've seen and a great size for my elderly Dad to read.

An ice storm here in NY left many of our trees weakened and we may need to think about evacuating my parents from their woodland home while the road is clear.

Thanks!

[Don_G]

13. Here's One

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/

[benfranklin1776]

19. Great link.

Thanks! :hi:

[goobergunch]

24. The one I use is this one

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[hatrack]

14. Update - 11:00 AM Monday - Slightly Weaker, Still Moving W/NW

Their tracking suggests impact Thursday morning near Cape Hatteras. Wind speeds down to about 140, pressure up to 945.

National Hurricane Center

[qanda]

15. kick

for updates

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. expect lots of rain and FLOODING

The Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission is taking the right precautions according to this article. I would expect DC, Virgina and the Chesapeake areas to get a LOT of FLOODING. DO not forget the real danger here- rain, rain, and more rain on already saturated ground will have no place to go. I forsee some pretty expensive damage ahead up and down the east coast.

Excess Water Released From Putuxent Dams

[pfitz59]

17. Pig farm lagoons!

Few years ago seawage lagoons overflowed in NC causing enormous environmental damage. Like 10 million people taking a crap all at once! Stock up on bottled water, and get that home filtration plant working! Safe drinking water is your most precious commodity!

[Don_G]

20. I See The Same Problem In PA

They've already had some flooding and I don't believe 3 days of dry weather will be enough time to dry out the supersaturated soil.

[Chico Man]

18. NOAA Update: 5PM: NOW CAT 3

000
WTNT43 KNHC 152051
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT ISABEL HAS
WEAKENED TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 120
KT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 110 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH DROPSONDES IN THE EYEWALL SUGGEST THE WINDS
MIGHT BE EVEN A LITTLE BIT LESS. THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF
SHEAR AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN STILL LOOKS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
EYEWALL CONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION LOOKS A LITTLE DRY. ALTHOUGH ISABEL HAS BEEN
WEAKENING...AND MAY WEAKEN FURTHER...THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT SUGGESTS THAT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN...WITH
ENHANCED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...MAY DEVELOP IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN
PREDICTING SUCH PATTERNS...IN PARTICULAR THEY OFTEN OVER-DEVELOP
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES OVER TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SIMPLY CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...AND
ANTICIPATES A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER...AT
LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/7...OR NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...EVEN MORE SO THAN THIS MORNING AS
THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS EARLIER RUN. THERE HAS BEEN
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO MAY
BE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BEFORE ISABEL TURNS BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.
BY 48 HOURS OR SO...AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE WEST WILL HELP ACCELERATE ISABEL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 35N AND 60 W.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 25.6N 70.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 26.3N 70.8W 110 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 27.5N 71.6W 105 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 29.0N 72.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 30.8N 73.2W 105 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 35.5N 76.0W 100 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1800Z 42.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/1800Z 52.0N 80.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[benfranklin1776]

21. Thanks for update.

I am curious to see what effect the Gulf Stream will have on its intensity. If trough accelerates it sufficiently though then that may deprive it of time for potential strengthening. All in all one hell of a mess and I am still clinging to hope that it is picked up
by the cold front currently going through PA and steered out to sea. Not likely since timing of cold front is bad and high pressure and secondary wave appear to be the dominant steering influences.

[UpInArms]

23. NEWS -U.S. nuclear plants eye dangerous Hurricane Isabel

http://www.forbes.com/markets/commodities/newswire/2003/09/15/rtr1082112.html

Reuters, 09.15.03, 5:48 PM ET

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Nuclear power plant operators on the U.S. East Coast, while keeping a close eye on Hurricane Isabel, said on Monday they are unlikely to shut their plants until just hours before the powerful storm strikes.

"That decision to shut the plants comes if winds at hurricane strength are going to hit and it comes two hours prior to the wind speeds getting there," a spokesman for Southeast utility Progress Energy Inc. (nyse: PGN - news - people) said.

<snip>

Overall there are eight nuclear power plants along the coast from Florida to New Jersey - among the region's biggest power generators - and several others further inland along the hurricane's projected path.

<snip>

Storms pose little danger to reactors since they are housed in massive concrete containment buildings easily capable of withstanding hurricane force winds.

But major storms kick up huge ocean swells that can clog cooling water intake systems at some nuclear plants.

...more...

[althecat]

25. Latest NOAA GFS modelling of landfall....

SCOOP HAS POSTED ANOTHER REPORT ON ISABEL HERE...
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0309/S00142.htm

[Lorien]

26. kick

:kick:

[Chico Man]

27. Isabel Now CAT 2

000
WTNT43 KNHC 161502
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RISE AND THE EYE HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED ON A
RADAR IMAGE TRANSMITTED FROM THE AIRCRAFT. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
WERE 105 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT FROM 7000 FT...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 90 KT. THIS MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION...
AND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY OVER PAST FEW HOURS.
RECENT IMAGES...HOWEVER...SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST. ISABEL IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
EAST OF THE HURRICANE. A BROAD AREA OF WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ISABEL TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH 72 HR.

WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE CENTRAL CORE...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ISABEL AS A
RESULT OF A DIGGING AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE HURRICANE IN THE 24 HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. FOR THIS REASON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME
RESTRENGTHENING. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT THE CIRCULATION
COULD BECOME SO DISRUPTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THAT ISABEL WOULD
BE UNABLE TO RESPOND TO THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 27.4N 71.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 28.4N 71.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 29.9N 72.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 31.7N 73.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 33.8N 75.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 39.0N 79.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/1200Z 47.0N 78.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/1200Z 54.0N 71.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/161502.shtml?

[Merlin]

28. Good news. So the serious threat becomes rain not wind.

Cat 2 can do some damage, but nothing like a cat 5, which it was on Sunday.

Now lets see if the cold fronts coming in from the NW can drive this baby out to sea.

[goobergunch]

29. Hurricane watches have been issued

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE
RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH
MARYLAND...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/161442.shtml?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W+GIF/161458W.gif

[qanda]

30. Kick

For Updates

[radfringe]

31. UPDATE: current position (wed. 4:15am et)

[DannyRed]

32. Look for the Storm

To gain a bit of strength in the near future as it crosses the Warmer Gulf Stream Waters.

How much strength depends on how warm the Gulf Stream is, and how long the storm stays over that water body.

Present Velocity is <10 mph, with wind speeds at a max sustained of ~110 mph...the Gulf Stream takes about 3-5 hours to cross at that speed (I did it on a research ship), so look for the storm to gain a few, possibly 10 mph in sustained winds, and to reform a more coherent eye...
For present gulf stream maps, and temps, go here:

http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/environment/imagery/imagery.pl?eastcoast&7