Report: India, China will be major powers in 2020

[quaoar]

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/nation/10638976.htm

By JONATHAN S. LANDAY
Knight Ridder Newspapers


LANGLEY, Va. - (KRT) - The world of 2020 is likely to be one in which Asia is the main engine of the global economy, India and China are major powers and al-Qaida-inspired Islamist movements have spread to Muslim communities outside the Middle East, a new U.S. intelligence report said Thursday.

The United States will remain "the single most important country across all dimensions of power," but wield less authority than it does now because of the greater influence of India, China and possibly other nations such as Brazil and Indonesia.

"Although the challenges ahead will be daunting, the United States will retain enormous advantages, playing a pivotal role across the broad range of issues - economic, technological, political and military - that no other state will match by 2020," said the report, "Mapping the Global Future."

It was the third in a series of unclassified forecasts of global trends published by the National Intelligence Council, a group of senior intelligence analysts who report to CIA Director Porter Goss but aren't technically part of the spy agency. The earlier reports were for 2010 and 2015.

[Zech Marquis]

China IS THE world power NOW

Did anyone forget how they made * say,"we're very, very sorry" about that spy plane incident?

If that dosn't convince, take a look at where your computer, tv, and clothese were made...

[Bono71]

11. I disagree completely...

Though China is a giant, and it's potential seemingly endless, it is not the premier economic or military power in the world right now by a long shot. It's economy is expanding rapidly, but its GDP pales incomparison to the EU or the US...as far as technology goes, again, currently its not even close...

[VegasWolf]

26. No, he is correct. China is the world's number uno importer and

exporter, They are a major banker for the US deficit.
The only thing I disagree with is whether or not the US
will be significant. My guess is that we'll come in somewhere
behind the EU on significance. No economy can survive without
a strong manufacturing base, Japan is the most recent country
to prove this fact. The US manufacturing base has eroded beyond
recognition.

[Bono71]

28. Europe has a strong manufacturing base? Where does China

stand with respect to technology (currently)? What is China's current GDP per capita?

Still disagree?

[jdonaldball]

31. The numbers coming out of China cannot be trusted

Nobody really knows what China's GDP is. The numbers are cooked by local Party bosses, to make themselves look good.
It's a one party state without a free press or open information.
Remember that the next time you see any economic numbers coming out of China.

[VegasWolf]

32. Absolutely still disagree. WRT technology, outstanding Chineese

students are now preferring Chineese Universities over
US ones. Chineese Universities aren't cash starved as
the US ones are. Much higher spending for pure research.
Major areas of biotech activities are also happening in China
where the fundies in the US are retarding our activities.

No country can be dominant without a strong manufacturing base.
The US can not exist as a service economy, where I wash your
shirt and you wash my car. The economy needs a strong
manufacturing engine and the US's is being destrioyed
by this admin and corporate greed.

[jdonaldball]

34. Chinese universities ARE cash starved and do poor research

Chinese universities are still stuck in the old Soviet model, and they know nothing about independent, original research.
If you had seen even the top Chinese universities and compared them with Stanford or Yale, you would know it's ludicrous to say China is spending more and doing more research. Chinese universities are doing very well if they just keep the toilets clean.

[VegasWolf]

35. Where do you get your information. My friends at Stanford say the

opposite.

[Just Me]

39. Your voice of reason is so important.

I just do not understand why this neoCONimperialist sect is prepared to starve its own country, its own people.

Talk about ANTI-AMERICAN!!!!

This cabal seems far worse than "communist" China!!!! They are fully prepared to sacrifice all our lives as "capital" for their wacko imperialist power-ventures.

It just,...makes me sick to witness this kind of corporate tyranny being imposed upon our people.

[VegasWolf]

40. Thanks! It makes me sick also. n/t

[Chicago Democrat]

45. China is bad too... But Bush is worse for sure...

[anarchy1999]

53. I worked for the physics department in a small college in the late 80's

The head of the dept swept in one day in utter frustration. We had many Chinese students and he had caught them cheating and could do nothing.

I saw and was witness to what is happening now. Please remember, the Chinese have a 1000 year plan. We are f'd.

[54anickel]

29. Nice piece on US no-think smugness here written in 2002

http://www.vdare.com/roberts/no_think.htm

[VegasWolf]

33. Good post. I have friends overseas that are basically shorting

the American economy. They're watching the US dollar
die and plan to sweep in and pick up the pieces. The
smartest move an investor could have made on an averaged
value over the last four years while the US market languished
would have been to buy the euro. 50,000 pre georgie would
be 85,000 in just three years, and this as an ultra-conservative,
capital preserving investment.

[pokercat999]

52. Just give them a little time.

A winning strategy for the next presidential election would be to call for the complete cutoff of all imports from China or any other country that will not manufacture under wage and environmental laws that apply in the US and ending all outsourcing jobs to Asia. That is, if you can regain control of the ballot and prevent electronic voting or electronic counting of the paper vote.

[roguevalley]

1. Thanks to bush bankrupting us by borrowing from them. Of course,

there is always the wild card of drought and environmental degredation.

[tuvor]

2. So what caused all this?

Could someone please explain to an ignoramus such as I? I presume it's social/governmental factors, since they've had the numbers for eons.

[proud patriot]

5. The dollars decline the Debt , the giant consumer base

in both China and India plus the work for less money there
have all factored into this .

[Deja Q]

3. Well, the US gives them the jobs and the education so Whitey can profit...

Sadly, Whitey will end up piss poor and wearing a barrel just like the rest of us 'murkins in the end.

Karma to greed. Greed to karma. No chameleons about it, it's too damn obvious to see.

[Baconfoot]

8. It's NOT so that Whitey can profit...

it's so that THE MAN can profit.

The fact that other white individuals (who, according to THE MAN, rightfully oughtn't possess any wealth at all) reap any advantage from the doings of THE MAN, is only of interest to THE MAN insofar as the wealth associated with the advantages (while of course RIGHTFULLY belonging only to the MAN) isn't in the hands of the darkies (who, according to THE MAN, REALLY oughtn't possess any wealth at all.)

Whitey WILL end up wearing a barrell, this I don't dispute. But THE MAN will be living it up on an island in the Pacific... unless he destroys all macroscopic life on earth first (much more likely).

[bamacrat]

4. Load up boys looks like were going in.

[leesa]

23. We can't afford it.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. 2010, not 2020

My guess, anyway.

And they're far too upbeat on the position the US will occupy in the world in 2020.

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DavidDvorkin]

10. We're Britain around 1890

Many in Britain saw perfectly well how the balance of power had shifted and would continue to shift. Others were convinced it was still 1850 and always would be.

[Hobarticus]

12. I'm off to watch "Master and Commander"...

and lament the decline of sea power.

Seriously though, your assessment is dead-nuts on.

What was the name of that book a few years back, that discussed the decline of 'empire' and predicted the same for the US?

The author described the factors that lead to Britain's collapse as a world power, and it damn near dovetails with everything you see today: decline in domestic manufacturing, massive international debt, over-extension of empire and imperialistic policies, etc.

Didn't bode well for the US of A. Too bad Dubya doesn't read.

[DavidDvorkin]

15. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

By Paul Kennedy.

Is that the one?

Wonderful book. As I remember, he concentrates on Britain, but he also devotes a lot of space to the decline and fall of the Hapsburg Empire. The parallels between that one in the 1400s and the US today are also striking.

[DavidDvorkin]

27. Or Britain in 1913, says my son

I was telling him about this thread, and he thought 1913 was better than 1890.

In 1913, Britain was probably still the greatest power militarily, over all, and it still had firm hold on its huge empire. But the basis for that strength had weakened enormously, and other great powers, especially the US, had the ability to be far greater if they converted their industrial and population base into military power.

Then came 1914, and the real balance asserted itself. Let's hope we don't have to go through something as bloody and awful as WWI for the new balance to take shape.

[fedsron2us]

37. Any Brit will tell you its a long ride down

and the UK is still in political and economic decline sixty years after the end of World War II.

[DavidDvorkin]

49. Well, I don't know about that

The UK's decline ended quite a few years ago. They've been improving economically for a while now.

[fedsron2us]

50. Don't believe the crap spouted by Tony Blair about

about the UK economy. Unemployment may be low but a lot of the jobs are minimum wage. The trade deficit is bad and many British consumers are upto their eyeballs in debt.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1105529729-9e32d306-20675
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3935671.stm

In fact the UK mirrors all the economic failings of the USA except in the area of government debt. It has exactly the same problems with an eroding manufacturing base, ridiculous asset price inflation in the housing market and a service sector increasingly threatened by outsourcing to the third world. Indeed, in many respects it is much further on the road to ruin than the USA. It has only been the income from North Sea oil that has protected the country from the full effects of these trends. Now that is beginning to run out. Pretty soon the chickens will be coming home to roost.

[leesa]

22. I agree. It will happen MUCH sooner. In fact, I think it's a done deal

already. I think most of the world realizes it, we are still in denial.

[slor]

9. COOL! Maybe they will...

send jobs back to the U.S. in 2020, to take advantage of the slave wages we suffer from, inspired by 8 years of a chimp's economic policies.

[bloodyjack]

13. Glory to thee! Glory to thee! Glory, glory, glory to thee!

[tlcandie]

14. Not if the US has anything to do about it..... NASA/military's 2020 plan

Foortprint in the ME is ONLY the beginning...they want all of the Asian oil and to control the world including all of space!...if you aren't past upset yet...you will be once watching this. LINKTV airs the video currently...

http://www.arsenalofhypocrisy.com /

<snip>
While watching "Arsenal of Hypocrisy" I was blown away by the "BIG PICTURE" overview of what certain factions in American government (in cahoots with NASA and the US Military) is really up to ... with their VISION FOR 2020. This new video produced by Randy Atkins and hosted by seasoned activist Bruce Gagnon pulls together all the pieces of the post-9/11 puzzle and lays down the BOLD PLAN by the US elites to achieve WORLD DOMINATION within a VERY short period of time. Those who aren't familiar with the contents of this video will be left in the dark as to: what the "War on Terror" is all about... WARNING: It's scary ...and if you are a fence-sitter, be prepared to be pushed off! I give it 5 stars * * * * *.

Ian Woods, Publisher / Editor -- "Global Outlook" Magazine (www.globaloutlook.ca ).
<snip>

<snip>
This elegant and penetrating work by video newcomer Randy Atkins (Gainesville, FL) has been accepted for presentation at the upcoming New York International Independent Film and Video Festival. It is the result of a hugely successful collaboration with scholar-activist Bruce Gagnon and represents the fruit of often ingenious juxtaposition of historic political and technical materials.

The video's impact draws intensity from such wide-ranging figures as Werner von Braun, Dwight Eisenhower, Apollo astronaut Edgar Mitchell and Noam Chomsky.

What we have here is a level of communication of crucial ideas that is only infrequently attained in any medium and even more rarely in film. Here are the origins of the U.S. space program, the artful public relations schemes that conceal its intent and sell it to an unknowing electorate. Here is the science underpinning the long-range goal of planetary conquest and control; and here are the hideous ecological risks posed by the megalomaniac corporate drive to exploit space as the most lush source of profit yet imagined.

This is truly an important film that deserves the widest possible circulation.

By Stan Lofchie, Green Party member Brunswick, Maine
<snip>

<snip>
Press release:
Arsenal of Hypocrisy

The Space Program and the Military Industrial Complex
Arsenal of Hypocrisy features Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space Coordinator Bruce Gagnon, Noam Chomsky and Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell talking about the dangers of moving the arms race into space. The one-hour production features archival footage, Pentagon documents, and clearly outlines the U.S. plan to "control and dominate" space and the Earth below. The video spells out the dangers of the Bush "Nuclear Systems Initiative" that will expand the use of nuclear power in space by building Project Prometheus -- the nuclear rocket.
Mitchell, the 6th man to walk on the moon, warns that a war in space would create massive bits of space junk that would create a mine field surrounding the Earth making it virtually impossible to launch anything into the heavens. Mitchell calls space a fragile environment that must be protected.
Noam Chomsky talks about how the U.S. intends to use space technology to control the Earth and reminds the viewer that the U.S. refuses to negotiate a global ban on weapons in space. He also speaks about the role of the media in suppressing this important issue.
The video contains archival sound of President Dwight Eisenhower in 1961 warning the American people about the power of the military industrial complex.
Arsenal of Hypocrisy has been accepted into the New York Independent International Film Festival and will be screened in April.
<snip>


This is currently showing on FSTV if any care to watch the video!

[fedsron2us]

16. This all costs money

which the US currently has to borrow from the rest of the world. The US is following the classic course for imperial decline. The economy goes first, the political and military power structures collapse soon afterwards. Expensive foreign wars to bolster the edifice only hasten the fall.

[leesa]

24. You would think this simple reality would be obvious, wouldn't you?

[tlcandie]

47. Correct .. no money hasn't stopped them yet!!! n/t

[bloodyjack]

17. Well, here's a link to the actual report

http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html

Warning: slightly 'creepy' (Read their forecasts for 2010 and 2015)

[ausiedownunderground]

18. China & India are already the economic "superpowers" if you haven't notice

Here in OZ trade with China & India have expanded exponentially in the last 5 years. Trade with America nobody cares about!! Your yesterday's news and your going to find out about it very shortely!!!

[justiceischeap]

19. Do you think the US outsourcing

to India and China had anything to do with this?

[Robert Oak]

56. of course, here's why

not only are the jobs sent to India and China in the millions..US corporations are literally staffing universities and educating Chinese
and Indians...

for FREE...do we get for FREE here, hell no...

to becoming engineers and scientists.

they gave away all of our advanced technology to China.

You should read about the China PNTR (trade agreement) and it is horrifying...made me realize either Clinton was corrupt or a moron
to sign such a thing...it's on the level of "please give us your
factories, you know how, your jobs, for free" and we'll turn around
and sell you stuff".

But, long term they just decimated the middle class of the United States.

You cannot ship the jobs that require advanced degrees, that take
10 years to obtain the skill to do them...overseas on a dime
and not expect to collapse that country's economy.

[Massacure]

20. I did some very basic number crunching

China's GDP was $6.449 trillion in 2004 and grew 9.1%. The U.S. had a GDP of $10.99 trillion and grew at 3.1% in 2004.

So:

2005
China: $7.036 Trillion
United States: $11.331 Trillion

2006
China: $7.676 Trillion
United States: $11.682 Trillion

2007
China: $8.376 Trillion
United States: $12.044 Trillion

2008
China: $9.137 Trillion
United States: $12.418 Trillion

2009
China: $9.968 Trillion
United States: $12.803 Trillion

2010
China: $10.875 Trillion
United States: $13.2 Trillion

2011
China: $11.865 Trillion
United States: $13.609 Trillion

2012
China: $12.945 Trillion
United States: $14.031 Trillion

2013
China: $14.123 Trillion
United States: $14.466 Trillion

2014
China: $15.408 Trillion
United States: $14.914 Trillion

2015
China: $16.81 Trillion
United States: $15.377 Trillion

[bunny planet]

21. Does this report even account for the possibility of Peak Oil and what

that might do to our economy and ability to sustain our standard of living and world power status. We will be in direct competition with China for the world's remaining finite resources.

Senior Intelligence Analysts who report to this WH are basically telling them (and us) what they want us to hear.

[leesa]

25. China has already positioned itself to have access to those. Bush

has destroyed all possibility of having ANY access through his belligerence. Brilliant, eh?

[bunny planet]

43. He's a genius.

China supposedly just discovered oil in their own country, about 200 billion barrels worth supposedly. Now Cuba says they've found an untapped oil reserve on their turf too. Who do you think His Fraudulency George III will attack next?

We are so f*cked unless we can get this guy out of office.
Actually even if we do, we might be anyway.
NGU

[VegasWolf]

44. Words fail to descripe bush's intellect. n/t

[buzzard]

54. Hard to describe something that doesn't exist. n/t

[okieinpain]

30. both due to the US companies rush to make a buck. but I

guarantee you that once they get on top. these two countries will do everything in their power to prevent those same american companies from pulling that shit in their countries.

[fedsron2us]

38. US politicians would have to take on the corporations

to stop this trend. Given that these same people bank roll their careers this is never going to happen.

[arwalden]

36. Humbling, Ain't It?

[SoCalDem]

41. Was there EVER a doubt??

Both countries have/had large pools of untapped labor, and relatively stable governments (even if we don't LIKE them).. They have lots of resources and plenty of coastline for shipping ports.

Both have a rapidly emerging middle class, due to the technology gap's closing.

They are about where we were during the Industrial revolution, onlt they have technology that we did not have.

Their infrastructure is being built up, just as ours is crumbling.

We're like the old couple on the street who have been in their house for years, but never did any upkeep..The young people across the street, may not have as much money or equity in their NEW home, but it's a much nicer house..and they have the "energy" to keep it up..

[VegasWolf]

42. What is really distressing is that this country is picking more and more

fundie leaders. We all know the fundies fear of science or
new things. These leaders will have technology so hamstrung
here, especially anything to do with biotechnology, that
most new technological advances and their associated
manufacture will occur in other no so backward countries.

[Domitan]

46. Good!

The more super-powers out there, the more to keep each other in check!

[tlcandie]

48. I think they are looking at the China model for the US ...

little bees all busy at minimal wages working errr slaving their arses off while the corps and oligarchy send us to wars and conquer the planets even sending us there to mine/work our lives away all to line their pockets!

Being just happy to have the minimal and a job w/o government intervention or hassles.

[NNN0LHI]

51. Neither of these countries will ever become major powers

The next major power will be either one or a coalition of several countries at the top of these lists:

2003 proved oil reserves
(billion barrels)

1. Saudi Arabia 261.7
2. Iraq 115.0
3. Iran 100.1
4. Kuwait 98.9
5. United Arab Emirates 63.0
6. Russia 58.8
7. Venezuela 53.1
8. Nigeria 32.0
9. Libya 30.0
10. China 23.7

2003 proved natural gas reserves
(trillion cu ft)

1. Russia 1,700.0
2. Qatar 916.0
3. Iran 913.6
4. Other former USSR 332.1
5. Saudi Arabia 234.6
6. United Arab Emirates 204.1
7. United States 186.9
8. Nigeria 178.5
9. Algeria 170.0
10. Venezuela 149.2

[Robert Oak]

55. of course, we gave it to them!

Unbelievable...

I often wondered if congress is working for India and China and not the US.

They gave them the jobs, the technology, the intellectual property,
military support you name it...

this is no surprise but what is very questionable is why.

The excuse used is to promote world peace...i.e. if you give
them our jobs they won't blow us up with nuclear bombs...

now who here believes that?

Especially China...

I can feel the founders and veterans of this nation rolling in their
graves to see the United States give away huge chunks of America
to a totalitarian regime.

China is repressive, has no human rights and is the antithesis
of freedom that supposedly the US was founded on.