STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 21 January

[ozymandius]

Friday January 21, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 364 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 41 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 95 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1156
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 20, 2005

Dow... 10,471.47 -68.50 (-0.65%)
Nasdaq... 2,045.88 -27.71 (-1.34%)
S&P 500... 1,175.41 -9.22 (-0.78%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.17% -0.02 (-0.53%)
Gold future... 422.60 -0.70 (-0.17%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[Tace]

1. Futures Commentary

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering but remains below the 25% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 1181.85 as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are have turned bearish again signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, a test of December's low crossing at 1175.70, then the November 22 reaction low at 1171 are the next downside targets. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1193.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The March S&P 500 Index was up 2.60 pts. at 1179.00 as of 5:50 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

http://www.ino.com/

[RawMaterials]

2. 8:00 AM EST Market update

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Futures market suggesting a higher open for the cash market following an improved batch of earnings reports... General Electric (GE) has beaten Q4 forecasts by a penny on record revenues while United Technologies (UTX) has exceeded expectations by $0.10 and affirmed its FY05 outlook... Strong quarterly results from several technology companies after the bell last night has also contributed to an improved underlying sentiment that could help the indices rebound after two days of declines

6:26AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5.

6:24AM: FTSE...4788.30...-12.50...-0.3%. DAX...4203.55...-16.88...-0.4%.

6:24AM: Nikkei...11238.37...-46.40...-0.4%...

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[RawMaterials]

3. Market wrapup

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Nasdaq and Cisco at a Critical Junction, Berkshire Acting Well

The market was tested as a late day selloff in the Nasdaq on Wednesday and was followed by bad news from Ebay as they “missed” and lowered guidance after hours. Today’s action is critical and may determine the intermediate trend of the Nasdaq which will impact the broader stock market, too. The Nasdaq led the rally from August to New Year's and now it appears that it is leading the market down. Key support levels in the Nasdaq and Cisco were tested today. The technical state of the Nasdaq and Cisco will be discussed and highlighted tonight, along with a trend analysis of Berkshire Hathaway stock.

Technical Analysis of Berkshire Hathaway – Would Mr. Buffett Approve?

This week’s Barron’s Roundtable included the views of Mark Faber, Bill Gross, and Fred Hickey; so it cannot be said that the cast of characters included only those analysts serving up the standard Wall Street bullish Kool-Aid. In addition Art Samberg made a bullish fundamental case for Berkshire Hathaway, a stock that I own. This is a company run by Warren Buffett, an outspoken and great investor who, throughout his career, has voiced his views on the over-speculative nature of the financial markets and his distaste of speculation in general. Truth is, I don’t like speculators either; but…I’m a speculator! Well, I would like to be an investor, but there is little, if any investment value in the stock market at today’s valuations; so like many people, we are persuaded to speculate. Therefore, I hope I’m not being too disrespectful of Mr. Buffett and his investment philosophy if I present a brief technical analysis of Berkshire Hathaway stock. Chart 6 is a one year daily chart of Berkshire Hathaway A shares showing trendlines and moving averages.

snip..

Today’s Market

To answer the questions posed above:

1. Nasdaq 2,070 “failed” its test today, as the Qualcom and Ebay news served to drop the Nasdaq by 28 points. Technically, it appears that the Nasdaq may bounce off of the 2,038 level where it stopped for a cup of coffee in early November.

2. Cisco didn’t violate the 17.5 level as it was up today. The bullish P-A-F chart is still intact for now. Fact is, without the contributions of Ebay and Qualcom, the loss in the Nasdaq was rather benign. Consider that of the Technology Generals, Cisco, Microsoft, Dell, Intel, and Oracle; none of these stocks were down by more than 0.19 point. Only Oracle was down more than 1% and Dell and Cisco were actually up marginally. There were pockets of strength in some tech stocks too.

The Dow was down 68, the S&P 500 down 10, the Nasdaq down 28, the Russell 2000 down 0.9%, and the S&P midcaps down 0.51%, the XAU down 0.44% and the HUI was little changed. Oil was down $0.55 today and it appears that the former support line may now be resistance.

snip..

Dollar

The short-term technical picture of the dollar index indicates that the US dollar has a congestion area at around 84 where it may take a pause. Is this what the shadow of today’s candlestick is suggesting? Long term, it’s going down, although this bounce could continue for a few weeks.

[RawMaterials]

4. If Economy's So Strong, What's Wrong With Stocks?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=currier&sid=a9zJGAAZN1N0

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Solid economic news in the early days of 2005 hasn't done much for a shaky stock market.

U.S. growth starts the year looking stronger than expected, without stirring up a big increase in inflation or higher long- term interest rates.

As in 1987 and again several times in the 1990s, the stock market decline of the early 2000s failed to usher in any sustained economic slump.

snip..

Slim Spreads

In some ways, the markets have responded with alacrity to the economy's vigor. For example, the extra yield investors demand to own low-rated ``junk'' bonds by comparison with U.S. government bonds has lately shrunk to about 3.2 percentage points, the narrowest yield spread since 1998.

snip..

And in stocks? On average, the stocks that make up the Standard & Poor's 500 Index trade at about 20 times their earnings for the latest 12 months. That's pretty generous, given that a ``normal'' P-E was once considered to be about 15-to-1.

Paying the Price

Yet it's well below the monthly average for the last 10 years, which according to my Bloomberg works out to 27 to one. While everybody agrees the index was outrageously high at the end of the 1990s, it has spent the last five years doing penance. From the end of 1999 through the end of 2004, it lost ground at the rate of 2.3 percent a year.

Fresh memories of the severe 2000-02 bear market by themselves serve as one damper on investors' spirits. The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, also left a stark mental and emotional impression that is very slow to fade.

The South Asia tsunami of late December 2004 only reinforces images of the modern world as a place of great and unpredictable danger.
Maybe the biggest financial worry of all is the possibility of some economic dislocation resulting from trade and budget imbalances, or currency instability -- in Geithner's words, ``the risk of unanticipated shocks to financial prices.''

Prudence

``The probability of these shocks may be low,'' he said in his Jan. 13 speech. ``But it is higher than it has been, and higher than we should be comfortable with.''

If the worst happens, better for all concerned if they were on their toes. If the worst doesn't happen, the present cautiousness toward stocks leaves some room for future market gains.

[jswordy]

13. No strong up signal

Currency instability, lagging jobs creation, disappointing quarterly reports, rising short-term interest rates, and a weak Christmas and heavily incentived car sales that highlight just how tapped out consumers are. All that means the market should trade in a narrow range for the foreseeable future. The data are a muddle and in the aggregate lead in no particular direction at present.

[mhr]

14. Maybe This Explains The Weakness - Bush's Missing 10.2 Million Jobs

Employment Picture Still Dreary
Comstock Funds
January 06, 2005

Whatever the December payroll employment report shows tomorrow, it can’t come close to making a dent in the serious jobs shortfall of the current economic expansion. Here’s why. The NBER officially designated November 2001 as the bottom of the last recession, meaning that the November report marked the third anniversary of the upturn. During this 36-month period total non-farm payroll employment increased only 0.9%, a number that pales in comparison to past cycles. Over the last seven economic expansions the average rise for a comparable period was 8.7%. If that were the case on the current cycle there would have been 10.2 million more jobs than the total number reported for November, and the average monthly increase for the 36-month period would have been 316,000 per month. Instead the average monthly rise was a paltry 33,000, and even over the past 12 months when employment picked up somewhat, the average monthly increase came to only 171,000, a far cry from the typical cyclical increase. In fact only three months of the 36 showed increases of more than 300,000 jobs.

Snip ......
http://www.comstockfunds.com/screenprint.cfm?newsletterid=1155

[54anickel]

5. Good morning Ozy. Great toon again today!!! n/t

[RawMaterials]

6. FxMax, Most Accurate Forecaster, Says Dollar to Fall (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000177&sid=aBWpDBwEC9_g&refer=market_insight

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- FxMax, a currency forecasting company that had the most accurate predictions for exchange rates in the fourth quarter, says the dollar will decline for an unprecedented fourth straight year in 2005

``The U.S. administration is content to allow the dollar to weaken to absorb the significant imbalances in the economy,'' said Bennett

snip...

`A Little Extreme'

The U.S. currency fell 8.3 percent against the euro and 6.8 percent versus the yen in the fourth quarter as Federal Reserve policy makers, including Chairman Alan Greenspan, said foreign investors may tire of funding the shortfall in the current account.

snip..

Greenspan

``It's advantageous for U.S. trade for the administration to allow the currency to slowly weaken,'' said FxMax's Bennett, who compares currency trading to naval warfare. ``The strong-dollar rhetoric may well continue this year, but that's simply because a change in tone could cause a spiral of dollar selling.''

``Given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point,'' Greenspan said at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt on Nov. 19

snip..

`Visibly Improved'

Fed policy makers will probably raise their target rate for overnight loans between banks to 3.25 percent by year-end, from 2.25 percent today, to head off inflation, FxMax predicts. At the same time, the ECB will lift its benchmark rate for the first time in five years, to 2.75 percent, from 2 percent.

``Investors will be shifting their holdings out of the U.S.,'' Bennett said. An interest-rate gap of less than a percentage point between the U.S. and euro region won't be sufficient to attract enough foreign capital to offset a widening trade deficit, he said.

[54anickel]

7. GE Earnings Up 18 Percent in 4th Quarter

GE Earnings Up 18 Percent in 4Q; Company Cites Acquisitions, Strong Industrial Sales

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050121/earns_ge_2.html

STAMFORD, Conn. (AP) -- General Electric Co., the industrial, financial and media conglomerate, reported Friday its fourth-quarter profit rose 18 percent Friday, citing the impact of acquisitions, strong industrial sales and an excellent global economy.

The Fairfield-based company earned $5.37 billion, or 51 cents per share, in the October-December period, up from $4.56 billion, or 45 cents a share, a year ago.

The results beat the consensus estimate of 50 cents per share of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call.

snip>

"GE had a tremendous fourth quarter and an excellent 2004, as we completed our strategic repositioning and returned to double-digit earnings growth in the quarter," said Jeff Immelt, GE's chief executive. "We are benefiting from strong execution of our growth initiatives and an excellent global economy."

snip>

GE often produced double digit profit growth during the 1990s, but earnings have been sluggish the past three years as major businesses such as gas turbines for power plants have slowed.

GE embarked on a growth strategy with acquisitions that played a key role in boosting sales in the latest quarter.

Yeah, baby!!! 2005 is gonna be the year of mergers and acquisitions - if you can't earn that growth you gotta buy it! Of course we all know what that tends to do to the employment picture. :eyes:

[RawMaterials]

8. just one cent

man lets have a party.

I still love that quote from American psycho. when he says that he is into murders and executions, in the bar, the lady thinks he says mergers and acquisitions.

[RawMaterials]

9. Wall Street's mood swing may mean end of funk

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2005-01-20-sentiment-shift_x.htm

NEW YORK — In three short weeks, the mood of stock investors has gone from ebullient optimism to budding pessimism, a shift that gave the market a rocky start in 2005. But it could also signal the return of better times

Odd as it seems, that mood swing might be just what the market needs to reverse its early-year funk, says Bruce Bittles, strategist at R.W. Baird.

After gaining 26.4% in 2003 and 9% last year, the Standard & Poor's 500 index hit a 2005 low Thursday and is down 3%.

Prior to the big rally at the start of the current bull market in spring 2003, individual investors who were bearish topped 50% and nearly reached 60% in late February of that year. Similarly, the percentage of stock market newsletter editors who were bearish in the first quarter of 2003 neared 45%, according to Investors Intelligence. Currently, only 23% of the editors are bearish. Earlier this month, the number of editors who considered themselves bulls reached 62.1%, which was the highest since 1987.

[54anickel]

10. Europe gold in tight ranges, dollar/euro in focus

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH23685_2005-01-21_11-59-22_L21675185

LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Gold was stuck in a tight band on Friday morning in Europe, constrained by U.S. interest rate rise expectations that underpinned the dollar, dealers said.

There was some optimism however that the metal could break higher in the next few days as support held reasonably well this week.

snip>

"The longer we can stay above the $420 area, we can then look for $425," Peter Hillyard, head of European metal sales at ANZ bank said.

snip>

Barclays Capital noted in a daily report that gold's performance had been resilient, given that the euro had slipped below $1.30 against the dollar, with physical buying interest reported from Asia.

The euro had managed to claw higher against the dollar but was still within sight of two month lows hit on Thursday due to expectations for a faster pace of U.S. interest rates rise. It was last at $1.2984 against the dollar.

Federal Reserve officials assured the market on Thursday that the bank stood ready to act on inflation. :crazy: Didn't they just say earlier this week that inflation was well contained? They'd stick to the "measured" pace?

more...

[MARALE]

19. Now at $427

Went up a lot today while the dollar falls.

[54anickel]

11. Best of All Possible Worlds? Bond Buyers Crave Yield but Show No Fear

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/21/business/21norris.html?oref=login

IN the world bond market, all is sweetness and light. Companies with bad credit do not have to pay very much to borrow, and they have no trouble meeting their obligations. So lenders also do well.

snip>

A few years ago, it would have been difficult to find buyers for such paper. But in 2004 almost 16 percent of new corporate bonds were rated Caa or lower, the highest proportion ever. "They are really bad credits," said Michael Lewitt, the president of Harsh Capital Management, a bond manager. "But people feel they have to get yield somewhere."

Typically most bonds rated that low when they are issued default within a few years. Consider the class of 1998, the last year large quantities of such bonds were sold. More than 40 percent of the bonds defaulted within three years, and by now 74 percent of them have done so.

Those buying low-rated bonds get relatively little extra yield now, because interest rate spreads over high-quality bonds are small. Spreads have been tight before, but not when the overall level of interest rates was as low as it is now. The result is cheap money, which has helped to finance both leveraged buyouts and payments to equity holders. In such cases, the buyers of the junior bonds assume the risks of stockholders, but get limited returns. In the Warner Music deal, the lowest-rated bonds pay no cash interest until they mature in 2014. Owners of the bonds will have nothing to fall back on if things do go wrong.

"Never before," said James Grant, the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, "have junk-bond investors been paid so little for risking so much."

more...

[54anickel]

12. Boeing warns over US spending cuts

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f1e9422a-6b2b-11d9-9357-00000e2511c8.html

The head of Boeing's defence business on Thursday warned that Pentagon budget-cut proposals could be the beginning of a long-term squeeze on US weapons procurement. Such a shift could mean cuts in some of the company's largest and most lucrative programmes.


James Albaugh, president of the US aerospace group's $41bn military unit, said he expected all large arms programmes to be targeted, including Boeing's unmanned combat jet project, growing missile defence business, and the $92bn Future Combat System - a programme to refit the US army.

"If I take a look at Boeing and the programmes we have, my sense is that all big programmes will be taxed to some degree," Mr Albaugh said in an interview. "I don't know if that will be across the board - 4, 5 or 10 per cent - or it will be stretching programmes out."

US defence stocks have come under intense pressure since details of an internal Pentagon budget decision memo emerged two weeks ago.

more...

[RawMaterials]

15. 10:00 AM EST Market Update

10:00AM: Major indices retreat a bit following a 1.3 point decline in consumer sentiment data, but show some resilience and bounce back into positive territory... The University of Michigan has released a preliminary read on January consumer sentiment of 95.8, slightly less than expectations of 97.5, following a 6% combined gain over the prior two months...

While the decline compares with expectations for a very modest rise, the minor downtick is not expected to have much of an impact on the market or alter economic expectations as the data do not correlate particularly well with trends in consumer spending...NYSE Adv/Dec 1465/1006, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1388/1015

9:40AM: Market rebounds from yesterday's drubbing, opening higher in the wake of encouraging earnings from a handful of blue chips... General Electric (GE 35.70 +0.33) has helped fuel early buying interest after the bellwether reported 18% growth in earnings and revenues, beating Q4 profit forecasts by a penny on record revenues of $43.7 bln and reaffirming FY05 earnings growth of 10-15%... The other Dow component to beat expectations has been United Technologies (UTX 100.89 +1.11), exceeding forecasts by ten cents and easily surpassing revenue expectations...

Of the more than 100 S&P 500 components reporting earnings so far, roughly 80% have either met or exceeded analysts' forecasts, improving the underlying tone of the market in the early going...

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Futures markets relatively unchanged and indicating a higher start for equities...

[MARALE]

16. High Oil Effect Perhaps Underestimated-Fed's Stern

snip>
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Gary Stern told reporters it was "always possible and maybe likely" that the Fed and the market may not have gotten the impact of the recent sharp rise in oil prices precisely correct.
<snip

Not a long article and I will add a duhhhh

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=domesticNews&storyID=7395189

[54anickel]

39. WTF is he talking about? What rising income?

Stern also said he was not surprised the weaker dollar had not helped the country's trade balance yet. He noted that income effects tend to be larger than substitution effects, meaning import demand rose as Americans' incomes rose, even as prices may have risen due to the softer dollar.


Give me a friggen break here Stern! The buck has been falling now for, what 5 years now? Yet the deficit continues to rise, not drop, not even f'ing start to level off a bit. Just how long will it take? "Hasn't helped yet" - do you really believe for one minute that it will ever help if BeezleBush doesn't reign in spending?

[RawMaterials]

17. 11:30 AM EST Market Update

11:30AM: The broader market averages still trade at improved levels as market internals remain modestly bullish... Advancers on the NYSE outpace decliners by an 18 to 11 margin while advancing issues on the Nasdaq hold a 16 to 11 edge over declining issues... Volumes have been lighter than the past few sessions heading into the weekend, as shares traded on the Big Board have only recently surpassed 500 mln while volumes on the Composite remain well below the 1.0 bln share level... Up volumes, however, still hold a respectable lead over down volumes on both exchanges...NYSE Adv/Dec 1842/1194, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1623/1184

11:00AM: Market continues to hold its own despite a recent surge oil prices to new session highs... Crude oil futures ($48.60/bbl +1.29) have recently climbed 2.7% following an unexpected decline in natural gas data... Natural Gas Inventories fell 110 bcf to 2500 bcf while analysts had expected a decline of 106 bcf... The commodity had already found early buying interest for the first time in four sessions following a boosted 2005 forecast from OPEC as freezing weather in the Northeast increased demand for heating oil supplies and traders remained somewhat nervous ahead of the Jan 30 Iraqi elections...

NYSE Adv/Dec 1833/1121, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1712/1037

10:30AM: Equities continue to sport modest gains while the bulk of sector leadership remains mixed... Technology has paced the way to the upside early on, with respectable gains seen in semiconductor and networking... Energy, assisted by a rebound in crude oil prices ($48.11/bbl +$0.80) has also traded higher as have telecom services, financial, biotech, transportation, homebuilding and retail...

[MARALE]

18. Consumer Sentiment Eases in January - Survey

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7395206

Snip>
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of its consumer confidence index for January was 95.8, down from December's final reading of 97.1, according to market sources who saw the subscription-only report. Analysts on average had forecast that the index would rise to 98.0.

The survey's index of current conditions came in at 110.4, up from December's 106.7, and its index of consumer expectations gave a preliminary January reading of 86.4, down from the December reading of 90.9.

<snip

[54anickel]

20. U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Fell in January (Whoopsie)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aRc3RgCvkXbA&refer=us

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped for the first time in three months in early January as stock prices fell and oil prices crept up, a report today showed.

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for the month decreased to 95.8 from 97.1 in December, as expectations for the future dimmed. A measure of present conditions, tied closest to spending, rose to a four-year high.

``Profit-taking in the stock market since the beginning of the year, and the bounce in oil prices back to 6-week highs, may have damped sentiment a bit,'' said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado, who forecast a 96 for the index. ``Current levels of sentiment are still solid, and such strength has tended to correspond with solid rates of consumption growth.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index today was down 3 percent from the start of the year and headed for its worst January since 2000. The price of crude oil rose this month amid freezing weather and concern about unrest tied to Iraqi elections.

Current conditions and expectations shape the general index. The current index, which reflects Americans' perception of their financial situation and whether it's a good time to buy big-ticket items, rose to 110.4, the highest since December 2000, from 106.7 in December. The expectations index, based on optimism about the next one to five years, decreased to 86.4 from 90.9.

Forecast

more...

[spotbird]

21. I'm getting a sick feeling that what we've dreaded has started.

It has taken so long that I was starting to doubt. There will be some bounces, but this is it.
DJIA 1/21/2005
1:48:34 PM 10,434.37 -37.10 -0.35%

[54anickel]

22. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 83.25 Change -0.59 (-0.70%)

Settle 83.84 Settle Time 23:37

Open 83.88 Previous Close 83.84

High 84.00 Low 83.18


And a bit o' blather

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO

The March Dollar was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates above the 25% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 83.71. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 25% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 83.71 are needed to extend the short covering rebound off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of January. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Euro was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the April-December rally crossing at 129.550. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and beginning to turn neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.894 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the April- December rally crossing at 127.290 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The March British Pound was lower overnight and is challenging the 38% retracement level of the May-December rally crossing at 1.8564. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and have turned bullish hinting that a short-term is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.8806 are needed to confirm that the correction off December's high has come to an end. If March extends this year's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 1.8292 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight and is breaking out below the 38% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at .8421. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes above last week's high crossing at .8627 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends its decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at .8276 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 25% retracement level of the May-November rally crossing at .8174. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of January. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at .8062 then .8018 are the next downside targets. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline and Thursday's breakout below the 10-day moving average crossing at .9760. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, a test of the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at .9629 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

[54anickel]

23. 1:51 numbers and yada - sure could use some 2:00 fairy dust today...

Dow 10,429.12 -42.35 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,040.75 -5.13 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,171.60 -3.81 (-0.32%)
10-yr Bond 4.145% -0.02
30-yr Bond 4.647% -0.008
NYSE Volume 1,008,976,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,279,410,000

1:30PM : Equities now trade in split fashion as the major indices continue to bounce around the unchanged mark... Meanwhile, retail on the whole has posted modest gains today, with strength from Federated Department Stores (FD 55.68 +0.37) offsetting weakness in May Department Stores (MAY 32.78 -1.47)... Profit taking has sent MAY shares lower following a more than 20% gain in the stock on the heels of takeover talks with Federated... The apparel and accessories sector, however, has lost nearly 2.0% following a profit warning from Jones Apparel Group (JNY 34.02 -1.72)...
The specialty retailer, which has significant exposure to both FD and MAY, has warned that Q4 earnings will fall short of expectations due to higher markdowns following a lackluster holiday selling season...NYSE Adv/Dec 1953/1226, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1663/1313

1:00PM : Little change since the last update as the market averages continue to trade sideways... While most of today's action has been centered on earnings, initial public offerings have shared some of the spotlight... Stem cell research firm ViaCell (VIAC 9.29 +2.29), which priced 7.5 mln shares at $7, has soared 34% while SeaBright Insurance Holdings (SEAB 12.02 +1.52), which raised roughly $80 mln, has surged more than 14%... Celanse (CE 15.95 0.00), the largest of the first three deals to go public in 2005 raising $800 mln in its debut, however, has traded relatively unchanged... NYSE Adv/Dec 1940/1213, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1683/1255

12:30PM : Indices are off their highs but remain modestly above the unchanged mark... One area garnering strong interest from buyers today has been steel (+3.0%), which has picked up momentum as the dollar and euro relationship undergoes a modest correction... Notable movers on the day include Nucor (NUE 52.59 +1.80) and Steel Dynamics (STLD 37.25 +1.30) while OS (+3.2%), SCHN (+2.3%), X (+2.2%) and RS (++2.1%) have also posted impressive gains...NYSE Adv/Dec 1919/1212, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1657/1241

12:00PM : Stocks maintain modest gains midday following better than expected earnings from several industry leaders... A record Q4 report and reaffirmed guidance from General Electric (GE 35.78 +0.41) has been a major catalyst keeping a lid on aggressive selling interest... Excellent earnings from United Technologies (UTX 100.70 +0.92), coupled with solid quarters from Fortune Brands (FO 79.14 +3.34), Alltel (AT 55.77 +0.85), Keycorp (KEY 32.51 +0.81) and upbeat results from several technology companies, have also helped improve the overall tone of the market following two days of huge declines...

Networking and energy have led the charge with gains of more than 1.0%, with the latter taking advantage of higher oil prices... Crude oil futures ($48.63/bbl +1.32) have surged for the first time in four days, climbing 2.6% due to increased demand forecasts from OPEC, freezing weather in the Northeast and ongoing concerns ahead of Iraqi elections... Also trading higher have been telecom services, retail, hardware and financial while homebuilding has inched higher assisted by modest strength in treasuries, which has left the benchmark 10-year note up 2 ticks to yield 4.15%...

A surprise decline of 95.8 (consensus 97.5) in Jan consumer sentiment data near the open of trading added some early pressure to equities, but the minor downtick has had little impact overall... Sectors under pressure have been airline, disk drive, drug and consumer staples... Meanwhile, the dollar has relinquished recent gains against the euro (1.3042) and the yen (102.85) pushing gold futures higher to $424.80 an ounce... NYSE Adv/Dec 1999/1109, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1735/1137


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1913 (56%) 1518 (48%)
Declines 1280 (37%) 1460 (46%)
Unchanged 197 (5%) 169 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 522 (55%) 598 (49%)
Down Vol* 401 (42%) 558 (46%)
Unch. Vol* 13 (1%) 43 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 78 41
New Lo's 19 33

[54anickel]

24. U.S. stocks turn mixed on earnings concerns

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050121/2110ceb7f538933f59f30c7d046f85c1_1.html

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks traded mixed Friday as strong quarterly results from General Electric and United Technologies could not erase what has been a very mixed week for earnings.

snip>

The benchmark index remains on track to open the year with three straight weeks of losses, an event not seen since 1982. In that year, the Dow fell 3.4 percent in those three weeks but ended up 20 percent on the year.

snip>

"It is difficult to start a rally on a Friday," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald. "We may get a bout of short covering from those that have done well this week and don't want weekend exposure, but expect the gains to come slow and the buying to be tenuous."

snip>

In the currency markets, the dollar extended its losses against the euro and turned lower against the Japanese yen as the weak sentiment data left some traders betting that the Fed might pause its policy of raising interest rates at a measured pace. See currency report .

Gold futures gained in afternoon trading after a two-session decline, with traders mostly convinced that the dollar's strength over the last few days is only temporary.

more...

[54anickel]

25. UPDATE 2-Oil jumps a dollar on freezing U.S. weather

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH29041_2005-01-21_16-09-55_L21487688

LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Oil jumped a dollar on Friday as a harsh U.S. cold snap was expected to keep up demand for heating fuels and China reported a fresh record in crude imports.

U.S. light crude <CLc1> climbed $1.29 to $48.60 a barrel, and London Brent <LCOc1> crude was up $1.28 at $45.60.

Prices have pushed within a dollar of 7-week highs close to $50 a barrel on worries over sabotage attacks on Iraq's oil industry ahead of Jan. 30 elections and uncertainty over the outcome of OPEC's ministerial meeting on the same day.

Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, the world's largest heating oil market, will stay much below normal through the weekend, during which a snowstorm is expected to hit.

Then the weather will warm up to near to below normal by Tuesday, according to private forecaster Meteorlogix. The six- to 10-day forecast called for near to slightly below-normal temperatures, up from earlier forecasts of below normal.

Customs data released on Friday showed China's crude imports hit a record 12.1 million tonnes in December, sending total 2004 imports to 122.7 million tonnes, a rise of almost 35 percent from last year.

snip>

OPEC SHIPMENTS DROP

more...

[54anickel]

26. GM's bonds fall to record low

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7d7c3b0e-6b1c-11d9-9357-00000e2511c8.html

General Motors' bonds weakened to their worst levels on record on Thursday, as concerns about the credit quality of the US vehicle maker showed no signs of easing after its first-quarter results.


Its chief rival, Ford Motor, added to the negative sentiment when its bonds took a hammering following its first-quarter earnings report.

But GM remains the biggest concern in the corporate bond market. The company's benchmark bonds fell sharply this week after Standard & Poor's said its concerns about credit quality had grown since it downgraded GM in October.

"Our concerns regarding GM's ability to improve its competitiveness over a longer time period have grown incrementally in recent months," said Scott Prinzen, auto credit analyst at the rating agency.

GM's main problems are its eroding market share and large pension and health care obligations. But it was last week's earnings guidance and subsequent comment by S&P that triggered the sharpest sell-off.

more...

[54anickel]

27. December Book-to-Bill Falls

http://www.thestreet.com/tech/semis/10204375.html

North American semiconductor-equipment manufacturers logged a reduced amount of orders for the third straight month in December, which confirmed a weak end to 2004, according to new data from an industry trade group.

Also, a key industry ratio remained below parity for the fourth straight month, indicating fewer orders placed than product shipped, a negative indicator for future demand.

"The cyclic bookings peak occurred in June 2004 and total bookings in December are 23% below that level," said Stanley Myers, chief executive of trade group Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International.

The book-to-bill ratio, which measures orders received against product shipped, was 0.95-to-1, based on preliminary data compiled as a three-month moving average. During November, the ratio was 0.99-to-1; last December, the ratio was 1.23-to-1.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Adaptec Slashes Guidance

http://www.thestreet.com/tech/hardware/10204444.html

Storage vendor Adaptec (ADPT:Nasdaq - news - research) slashed guidance for its third and fourth quarters, citing weaker-than-expected sales at the reseller level.

Pro forma to exclude certain costs, the company expects to lose 3 cents a share on revenue of $126.5 million in the December quarter. Analysts had been expecting earnings of 5 cents a share on revenue of $135.0 million, according to Thomson First Call.

In the March quarter, Adaptec expects to break even or earn 1 cent a share, pro forma, on revenue of $127 million to $131 million. Analysts had been expecting earnings of 8 cents a share on revenue of $147.7 million.

The stock tanked 92 cents, or 14%, to $5.54 on Instinet.

The guidance reflects lower than expected channel sell-through, partially offset by higher demand among manufacturers who build with Adaptec products.

more...

[54anickel]

29. Records: Dell demanded 20-year no-tax deal

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/business/10687613.htm

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. - Officials at Dell Inc. demanded that the company pay no state taxes at all for 20 years - one executive called it the company's "line in the sand" - as they pressed for incentives to build an N.C. plant.

Notes, e-mail messages and projections by state officials were part of almost 4,000 pages released Tuesday in files almost 2 feet thick in response to public-records requests from the Dell deal.

"Here's what's most disconcerting," a note written by Commerce Secretary Jim Fain quotes Kip Thompson, Dell's vice president for global manufacturing, as saying in a July 16 conversation. "Two thousand jobs - shouldn't you be happy with no revenue?"

In another conversation on June 11, Thompson told Fain: "Not wowed here - not sure the state's stepping up here. Really is going to take some state participation," according to Fain's notes.

snip>

Dell pays no corporate income tax in Texas, its home state.

more...

[54anickel]

30. China demands local parts in new plants

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ffa5f95c-6b09-11d9-9357-00000e2511c8.html

China has told bidders for a nuclear power plant project that 70 per cent of its components must be made locally as part of a broader effort to develop a domestic nuclear power industry.

The requirement on the second phase of the Ling Ao plant in Guangdong province, in southern China, reflects Beijing's policy of encouraging technology transfer in contracts with foreign companies.

Its attempts to localise its nuclear power industry reflect a desire to be less dependent on western technology and parts.

As the country's rapidly expanding economy fuels sharp rises in demand for power, sparking shortages, Chinese authorities are looking to build at least two dozen nuclear power plants by 2020.

snip>

China's attempt to localise follows a path well-trodden by the Japanese and Korean nuclear energy industries, which were built originally on western technology, and are now "largely self sufficient", says the World Nuclear Association.

more...

[54anickel]

31. China orders nationwide audit of brokerages (Gettin' their ducks in a row?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/050121/e37b25ec_6b9d_11d9_94dc_00000e2511c8_1.html

China's securities market regulator on Friday ordered an audit of all the country's 130-odd brokerages, the latest step in its efforts to clean up the heavily loss-making and scandal-prone sector.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission instructed brokerages in an e-mail to submit a report on their financial situation by the end of April, in an effort to discover the true extent of the industry's problems.

Analysts said the move was also intended as a signal to brokerages that the authorities planned to be much tougher in the future over allegations of malpractice.

Chinese newspapers also reported Friday that the regulator had dispatched its own auditors to investigate eight brokerages which are suspected of falsifying financial statements and misusing clients' funds.

The new stance from the regulator follows the continued slump in the Shanghai stock market, which fell 14 per cent in 2004 and dropped to a five-year low Friday morning. The Shanghai composite index later recovered some ground to close 2.5 per cent higher on the day

more...

[54anickel]

32. Is a Secular Bear Market Inevitable? (Cant' remember if I posted this

one yesterday or not, if so - sorry for the redundancy)

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=39765

The United States faces a high probability of "Economic Armageddon" according to Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. "Balance the budget? Fugitaboutit" says PIMCO's Bill Gross. Meanwhile Warren Buffett has described financial derivatives, with contracts totaling $84 trillion in notional value concentrated among a handful of large US commercial banks, as "financial weapons of mass destruction" (2002 letter, p.15) while moving $20 billion out of the US dollar into foreign currencies.

Put mildly, some marquee names in the financial realm are sounding cautious regarding our financial future. At the same time today's business news carries a ready stream of articles and commentary from experienced financial professionals which generally suggest that although there may be room for concern regarding oil prices, dollar weakness and debt levels the economy can be expected to continue expanding at a moderate rate and financial asset prices, although not at historically low levels, offer reasonable value for the patient investor.

The diligent investor, having taken the time to follow what these professionals have to say, might be excused for feeling concerned, confused and frustrated. What hope do they have of untangling contradictory views from some of the best in the business? And, importantly, if the long lasting financial devastation of a secular bear market (Dr. Roach's economic Armageddon) is a possibility what chance do they stand of determining the likelihood of such an event? Fortunately our financial future can be considered in a fundamental and readily understandable yet widely overlooked manner, as will be evidenced within this article.

Two secular bear markets have occurred during the past 100 years of US history. 1929 saw the beginning of a 90% decline in equity values which transpired over the subsequent three year period. During the 1930's the US economy experienced the failure of thousands of banks and unemployment over 25% with grinding depression lasting until world war displaced depression as the overwhelming economic force. The Dow industrial index didn't regain its 1929 peak until 1954, 25 years later. The second secular bear growled its way through the 1970's, and it was truly secular in nature. Contrary to a common belief equities didn't simply move sideways through the 1970's before moving to new highs with the great bull market starting in 1982. This illusion is caused by the inflation which plagued the period. Deflating the S&P 500 with the CPI (see Chart 1) reveals that the market peaked in 1969, not 1973, before falling 64% over the subsequent 13 years, ultimately bottoming in 1982. Stock prices failed to exceed the 1969 peak until 1993, 24 years later, and didn't move convincingly through the 1969 level until 1995. At this point the weary, and rather aged, investor still faced capital gains taxes on a phantom 300% gain wholly due to inflation. Covering this tax liability likely extended the true recovery period to within shouting distance of the bear market in stocks beginning in 2000, the most recent peak in equity markets.

more...

[54anickel]

33. 16.75 billion in repos issued yesterday!

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

The Desk has entered the market announcing: O/N RP $7.750 billion
The Desk has entered the market announcing: 14-day RP $9.000 billion


U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 21 Jan 2005 at 07:48:46 PM GMT is:



The estimated population of the United States is 295,382,671
so each citizen's share of this debt is $25,792.01.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$2.12 billion per day since September 30, 2004!


http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

[54anickel]

34. Shades of the Dollar Standard

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/sennholz1.html

If the love of money is the root of all evil, the depreciation of money must be the mainspring of all shams and frauds. It works silently and covertly, impoverishes many while it enriches a few, and thereby inflicts great harm on social cooperation and international relations.

A few economists are sounding the alarm about the decline of the U.S. dollar. In recent months it fell visibly toward the euro and Japanese yen and is likely to fall even lower. But most Americans refuse to be alarmed as they are unaware of exchange rates and foreign exchange markets. Why should they be troubled about the financial affairs of money traders and dealers?

We may not be able to see the future but always can learn from the past. Looking at the recent history of the dollar, this economist perceives three distinct stages with various characteristics, causes, and consequences. In the first stage from the end of World War II to 1971 the U.S. dollar was tied to a small anchor of gold. President Nixon cut its ties and embarked on a wholly new road of fiat dollar management. Many other countries readily accepted the new system acclaiming its flexibility and manageability. At this time, in 2004, the world is still traveling this road, but several countries are making preparations for leaving it and proceeding toward a multiple standard system. It is not clear whether they will depart in an orderly fashion or in crisis and contention.

snip>

Throughout the decades a few economists always were worried about the magnitude of the trade deficits and the vulnerability of the American dollar. But their fears proved to be unfounded because they underestimated the worldwide demand for dollars and the willingness of foreign investors and central bankers to trust and hold U.S. dollars. After all, until recently the deficits never exceeded three percent of GDP and Americans still were net creditors in their foreign accounts. By now, in 2004, the dollar standard has reached a stage in which not only a few economists but also some foreign creditors are beginning to question its future. The Federal government is swimming in an ocean of debt. In its first term the Bush administration increased the Federal debt by $2.2 trillion. Congress raised the Treasury debt ceiling three times, by $450 billion in 2002, by $984 billion in 2003, and by another $800 billion on November 19, 2004, to $8 trillion 184 billion. The ready willingness of Congress to finance such deficits is a clear indication of the political and ideological mold and make of most members of Congress and the public that elects them.

snip>

It is unlikely that the Federal government and the Federal Reserve will soon mend their ways, but it also is doubtful that foreign creditors will continue their support indefinitely. The U.S. dollar is bound to continue to depreciate and gradually surrender its role as the world's primary reserve currency to a multiple reserve-currency system resting on the euro, Japanese yen, Chinese renmenbi, and the American dollar. The multiple-standard system is likely to perform more efficiently and equitably than the dollar standard. Competition would avoid the abuses and inequities of a monopolistic system. Confining the powers of the Federal Reserve System and constraining the deficit aptitude of the U.S. Treasury, it would ward off any further inundation of the world with U.S. dollars.

In idle reverie of years long past, this economist is tempted to compare the gold standard with the dollar standard. Throughout the long history of the gold standard the balance of payments of gold-producing countries was usually "unfavorable." Since the birth of the dollar standard the United States has assumed the position of the gold-producing countries; its balance of payments usually is unfavorable. Much capital and labor were spent to find, mine, refine, and market gold; the United States bears minuscule expense in the production of its money. The quantity of gold coming to market was limited by market forces; the quantity of dollars depends on the judgment of Federal Reserve governors who are appointed by the President. In times of turmoil and war the quantity of gold mined does decline; in such times the stock of fiat dollars tends to multiply and its value depreciates quickly. The quantity of gold is limited by nature and its value is enhanced by many nonmonetary uses; fiat and fiduciary moneys have no such uses or limitations. They are the sorry creation of politics.

more...

[54anickel]

35. 3:15 and not looking too good for a final hour rally

Dow 10,396.92 -74.55 (-0.71%)
Nasdaq 2,033.70 -12.18 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,168.80 -6.61 (-0.56%)
10-yr Bond 4.146% -0.019
30-yr Bond 4.654% -0.001
NYSE Volume 1,322,140,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,658,848,000

3:00PM : Indices fall to their lowest levels of the session as sellers remain an active bunch heading into the last hour of trading... Blue chips have led the decline as the Dow Industrials has recently fallen through yesterday's low of 10414.72, leaving only five components trading in positive territory... Another area hit hard has been the Dow Transports (-1.1%), which has lost more than 8.0% this year despite outperforming most averages last year with a 20.8% gain... The Russell 2000 (+0.3%), however, despite also being hammered in 2005 losing nearly 6.0% so far, has clung to modest gains... NYSE Adv/Dec 1792/1462, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1495/1537
2:30PM : Equities remain on the defensive as stocks continue to trade near their lows of the session... Trading higher, however, have been treasuries despite quiet trade with little economic data to move on... The benchmark 10-year note is up 5 ticks yielding 4.13%...Gold prices have also moved higher ($426.90/oz +1.0%) as the dollar has gotten weaker against the euro (1.3056) and yen (102.73)...

Adding to buying interest in gold has been the increased event risk that the upcoming Iraqi elections could bring, as buying gold could serve as a hedge against the threat of rising crude oil prices ($48.60/bbl +$1.29)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1792/1450, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1398/1621

2:00PM : Sellers show some resolve as a technical collapse in the indices quickly reverses sentiment... Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have broken below yesterday lows of 1173.39 and 2045.88, respectively, while gains in GE and UTX have kept the Dow hovering above its Thursday low (10414.72)...

It appears that with the major indices positioned to close lower for the third consecutive week, today's tenuous buying, due in large part to short covering, arguably wasn't going to be enough at any rate to lift the averages into positive territory for the week and offset those that do not want to own equities into the weekend...NYSE Adv/Dec 1809/1388, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1434/1541

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1655 (48%) 1295 (40%)
Declines 1625 (47%) 1758 (54%)
Unchanged 154 (4%) 155 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 532 (43%) 555 (35%)
Down Vol* 669 (54%) 990 (62%)
Unch. Vol* 32 (2%) 32 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 78 47
New Lo's 24 41

[54anickel]

36. Gold futures up for the day, week

Prices end near three-week high; other metals up on week

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF4BC652B%2DFC97%2D4C4D%2D9147%2DC7BF12255854%7D&?siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures ended higher Friday, marking their highest closing level since early January, as expectations of lasting weakness in the U.S. dollar and broad market uncertainty fueled investment and physical demand for the precious metal.

Gold for February delivery closed at $426.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $4.30 for the session and up $3.90 for the week. The contract thus finished at its highest closing level since Jan. 4.

"The dollar's failure to extend its gains recently, despite a flurry of news and economic numbers in its favor, eroded the market's support for the currency," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter.

"In traders' views, if the greenback can't rise, then it's destined to fall," meaning that "if you're going to bet on a fall in the dollar, you also want to bet on a rise in gold," he said.

The metal has also found support from the "ongoing, extremely strong level of physical demand from Asia and the Middle East," he said.

This physical demand shows "no sign of abating and, contrary to historical experience, appears to be investment-related," Lundin noted.

more...

[54anickel]

37. IMF Deceit, UK’s Brown A Hypocritical Farce, SA’s Manuel Nearly A Traitor

For those that follow GATA and their CT thoughts on gold.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/jan182005.html

snip>

GO GATA!!!

We know The Gold Cartel is in trouble. Whenever their available gold supply used to suppress the price has run way down, they rally their spokesmen to beat the drums for the IMF to sell gold to aid the poor. We have seen this modus operandi many times over the years.

The latest developments in this world sham/disgrace, which represents one of the most egregious examples of elitist hypocrisy of all time:

Use IMF gold to write off debt: Brown

more...

[54anickel]

38. U.S. 10-Year Yield Will Rise to 5%, Bond Firms Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aq9a0WNuEsX8&refer=us

. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street's biggest bond-trading firms expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury note's yield to rise this year to the highest since 2002, increasing costs for everything from mortgages to credit cards.

The yield will surge to 5 percent by year-end from about 4.17 percent yesterday, according to the median forecast of economists at the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the Federal Reserve's New York branch. The yield, which moves inversely to the note's price, helps determine interest rates charged to borrowers.

Investors may push yields higher to compensate for faster inflation and increases in the Fed's target interest rate for overnight loans between banks, or federal funds. The yield ended last year little changed even as the central bank raised the benchmark rate five times.

``It's long overdue that they fell into line,'' Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said of 10-year notes. ``Long rates can move at variance with Fed policy for a time, but not indefinitely.''

Willmore expects the yield will be 5.3 percent at year-end as the Fed's target fed funds rate climbs to 4 percent from 2.25 percent currently.

Forecast Range

snip>

Wrong Before

Most economists were wrong last year. The median estimate in a survey of 55 analysts from Dec. 23, 2003, to Jan. 6, 2004, was for the yield to end 2004 at 5.25 percent amid an expanding economy and as the government sold more debt to fund a record budget deficit.

more...

[RawMaterials]

40. Market Update --close under 10400 I guess someone didn't like *sh speech

Dow 10,392.99 -78.48 (-0.75%)
Nasdaq 2,034.27 -11.61 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,167.82 -7.59 (-0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 41.40 -0.25 (-0.60%)
NYSE Volume 1,639,399,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,038,650,000

3:30PM: Stocks bounce off their lows but still appear poised to end lower for the third consecutive session... With regards to Monday, a new day and the beginning of a new week, the focus will again be on quarterly earnings... S&P constituents reporting results before the bell include ETN, KMB, LXK, OXY and UNP while Dow component AXP will release Q4 (Dec) earnings during market hours... There are no notable economic releases expected until Tuesday...NYSE Adv/Dec 1634/1648, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1233/1833

3:00PM: Indices fall to their lowest levels of the session as sellers remain an active bunch heading into the last hour of trading... Blue chips have led the decline as the Dow Industrials has recently fallen through yesterday's low of 10414.72, leaving only five components trading in positive territory... Another area hit hard has been the Dow Transports (-1.1%), which has lost more than 8.0% this year despite outperforming most averages in 2004 with a 20.8% gain... The Russell 2000 (+0.3%), however, despite also being hammered in 2005, losing nearly 6.0% so far, has held onto modest gains... NYSE Adv/Dec 1792/1462, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1495/1537

[RamboLiberal]

41. Dow set for worst new-year losing streak since '82

http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/news/story.jsp?id=2005012114490002900304&dt=20050121144900&w=RTR&coview=

The Dow Jones was looking set to close lower for the week Friday -- marking the first time in more than 20 years it has fallen for the first three weeks of the start of a year.

Dow Jones Indexes said the last time the Dow had fallen for the first three weeks of a year was 1982.

A weak January could set the tone for the months ahead, said Robert Drust, managing director of listed trading at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan.

"It seems to me that it sets the tone for how people will position themselves for the coming months," he said.

[54anickel]

44. HA! Great toon!!! Thanks!...n/t

[spotbird]

46. This deserves its own thread.

The whole issue should be tied into SS privatization.

[54anickel]

42. Final numbers and blather (bit of settling occurred in S&P and Volumes)

Dow 10,392.99 -78.48 (-0.75%)
Nasdaq 2,034.27 -11.61 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,167.87 -7.54 (-0.64%)
10-yr Bond 4.140 -0.25 (-0.60%)
30-yr Bond 4.643 -0.12 (-0.26%)
NYSE Volume 1,639,403,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,046,328,000

Close Dow -78.48 at 10392.99, S&P -7.54 at 1167.87, Nasdaq -11.61 at 2034.27: The market opened on an upbeat note, in the wake of strong quarterly earnings, only to be bullied by the bears as the indices closed at new lows for the third straight day... With regards to earnings - good, better, best was still no match for the cautious sentiment that has so firmly rooted itself in a market that has left the major averages in negative territory week after week in 2005... Not even record results from the country's largest company - General Electric (GE 35.25 -0.12) - could hold early buying interest into the close of trading...

The bellwether reported 18% growth in Q4 profits and revenues, beat Q4 earnings expectations by a penny on record sales of $43.7 bln and reaffirmed FY05 earnings growth of 10-15%... Other notable companies that reported better than expected earnings were UTX, AT, FO, KEY and PNC... But even though roughly 80% of the more than 100 S&P 500 components reporting earnings so far have either met or exceeded analysts' forecasts, the lack of follow through from buyers has remained a reality as even much of today's tenuous buying efforts were arguably prompted by short covering... Virtually every sector finished lower Friday...

Losses of more than 1.0% were witnessed in airline, disk drive, semiconductor, software and transportation, with the latter extending its reach into negative territory as one of the worst performing groups in 2005... Health care, financial, retail, homebuilding, material, utility and energy (despite holding gains of 1.0% most of the day) closed lower... Gold (+1.7%), steel (+1.3%) and managed health (1.3%), however, were the only notable sectors that showed relative strength...

Not helping matters was a 2.6% surge in crude oil prices ($48.53/bbl +$1.22), spurred by boosted 2005 demand forecasts from OPEC, ongoing nervousness ahead of the Iraqi elections (Jan 30) and increased demand for heating oil supplies due to freezing weather in the Northeast... Treasuries were mixed, showing subdued reaction to Friday's consumer sentiment data, as the 10-year note closed up 5 ticks to yield 4.13%... An unexpected decline of 95.8 (consensus 97.5) in the Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index added some early uncertainty to equities but throughout most of the day had little influence on stocks...

Gold prices closed near a three-week high up $4.30 at $426.90/oz (+1.0%) as the dollar weakened against both the euro (1.3049) and yen (102.74)... Separately, the 2005 IPO market kicked off with the debut of three deals - Celanese (CE 16.10 +0.10), ViaCell (VIAC 8.68 +1.68) and SeaBright Insurance Holdings (SEAB 12.04 +1.54)...DJTA -1.2, DJUA -0.3, DOT -0.5, Nasdaq 100 -0.7, Russell 2000 -0.2, SOX -1.3, S&P Midcap 400 -0.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1572/1720, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1323/1771

3:30PM : Stocks bounce off their lows but still appear poised to end lower for the third consecutive session... With regards to Monday, a new day and the beginning of a new week, the focus will again be on quarterly earnings... S&P constituents reporting results before the bell include ETN, KMB, LXK, OXY and UNP while Dow component AXP will release Q4 (Dec) earnings during market hours... There are no notable economic releases expected until Tuesday...NYSE Adv/Dec 1634/1648, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1233/1833

Ahh, hope springs eternal for the new day. :evilgrin:

Have a great weekend everyone. :hi:

[DoBotherMe]

43. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,392.99 -78.48 (-0.75%)
Nasdaq 2,034.27 -11.61 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,167.82 -7.59 (-0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 41.40 -0.25 (-0.60%)
NYSE Volume 1,639,394,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,038,650,000

Close: The market opened on an upbeat note, in the wake of strong quarterly earnings, only to be bullied by the bears as the indices closed at new lows for the third straight day... With regards to earnings - good, better, best was still no match for the cautious sentiment that has so firmly rooted itself in a market that has left the major averages in negative territory week after week in 2005... Not even record results from the country's largest company - General Electric (GE 35.25 -0.12) - could hold early buying interest into the close of trading...
The bellwether reported 18% growth in Q4 profits and revenues, beat Q4 earnings expectations by a penny on record sales of $43.7 bln and reaffirmed FY05 earnings growth of 10-15%... Other notable companies that reported better than expected earnings were UTX, AT, FO, KEY and PNC... But even though roughly 80% of the more than 100 S&P 500 components reporting earnings so far have either met or exceeded analysts' forecasts, the lack of follow through from buyers has remained a reality as even much of today's tenuous buying efforts were arguably prompted by short covering... Virtually every sector finished lower Friday...
Losses of more than 1.0% were witnessed in airline, disk drive, semiconductor, software and transportation, with the latter extending its reach into negative territory as one of the worst performing groups in 2005... Health care, financial, retail, homebuilding, material, utility and energy (despite holding gains of 1.0% most of the day) closed lower... Gold (+1.7%), steel (+1.3%) and managed health (1.3%), however, were the only notable sectors that showed relative strength...

...

[54anickel]

45. Jinx! Owe me a

:toast:

[DoBotherMe]

47. Fresca please ...

I'll ask again ... what the hell is going on? I thought the market would skyrocket after the chimp was crowned. I have a really bad feeling about the next four years. Dana ; )

[54anickel]

49. I'm starting to get that same feeling. I don't think we'll be as lucky as

to only suffer a muddle-thru economy for the next decade as Maudlin has been anticipating. I'm thinking the sh*t's gonna hit the fan -they know it, that's why they are pulling the desperate measures of privatization and the huge tax breaks for multi-nationals to repatriate their foreign earnings. They cannot let the market tank, yet it has to suffer somewhat to save the US$. They are walking a tight-rope, juggling the stock market, treasuries and the buck. They risk dropping one or more of the balls, or falling off the rope all together, and I don't believe there's a saftey net short of the military-industrial-complex. It will be an interesting year or two.

Bad thing is there really aren't a lot of low-risk or risk-free alternatives. Even in CDs or savings, inflation is gonna steal away an awful lot of your purchasing power. These are interesting and scary times.

[salin]

48. down about 150 since the inauguration... who says the market

"loves" bush... ?