Nat'l Ass.for Bus. Econ.)Survey sees strong economic growth(hiring weakens

[papau]

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/24/news/economy/economy_survey.reut/index.htm

Survey sees strong economic growth
Businesses plan to boost capital spending and predict low inflation but view on hiring has weakened.
January 24, 2005: 7:40 AM EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. businesses expect strong economic growth to continue in the first half of 2005 and most plan to boost capital spending this year, though the outlook for hiring has dimmed, a survey showed Monday.

In a survey of 104 members of the National Association for Business Economics, 54 percent said demand was rising in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from 50 percent in October, with all sectors but services reporting higher demand.

"From the standpoint of our NABE respondents, a portrait of the U.S. economy in the fourth-quarter was one of faster growth of wages and salaries, employment, profits and capital spending, while inflation and growth of material input costs edged lower," said Kevin Kliesen, economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a NABE analyst. <snip>

<snip>While 60 percent said they expect capital spending to rise in the next 12 months, short-term hiring plans have softened somewhat, NABE said.Thirty percent forecast an increase in employment over the next six months, down from 39 percent last quarter. No change in staffing was expected by 56 percent, while 14 percent said they expect to cut employment through attrition or layoffs. <snip>

[Fovea]

1. Happy talk failure.

I expected a lot more of the rose colored crayon
than this.

[Career Prole]

2. Well, I'm very happy for them.

I hope with their newfound loot they'll spare a fiver for my tin cup.

[Democrats_win]

3. Who's Nat'l?

Is he bush's new pr man?

Nat'l Ass for Bs
or

Nat'l Ass for Bush

sorry, it was too good to resist.

[papau]

4. I understand - sometimes you must do what you must do! :-)

:-)

[makhno]

5. Those reports always piss me off

An improving economy is one where more people make more money working no more than they used to. I don't give a shit if corporate profits or investments or CEO compensation goes up. The economy is not some abstract mathematical concept.

[mhr]

6. Yes, This Is What I Posted Over At Angry Bear Commenting On Lou Dobbs

And his criticism of corporate America and outsourcing.

"Hmm - Then why do you (the blog moderator) insist that Lou Dobbs is totally wrong and you are totally right?

It seems to me that the proof that we have a problem is fairly clear to see. Put simply, the US population has grown over the last four years, but total employment has not.

Said even more simply, over the last four years, total employed labor has stagnated. In other words, the graph of total US labor moves sideways for four years - no effective growth.

I have seen analysis that suggests that if the recovery since November 2001 had been only average, there should have been 10.2 million net new jobs by the end of 2004. Well then free traders, where are the jobs?

Why do we continue to treat Labor and Capital as interchangeable parts of the economy? Corporate capital can move around the world at the speed of light through banking networks. Human capital is tied to culture, country, state, city, town, and community. Corporate capital has no allegiance to people and relationships. Human capital does. It is obvious that the game of global labor arbitrage being played by corporate capital is not fair and is unjust because it willfully breaks the social contract between society and citizen.

The question is simple and non abstract. Do you want a society that supports an economy? Or do you want an economy that supports a society?

Put bluntly, abstract word games on economic theory have no meaning to those disenfranchised."

[TahitiNut]

7. Very well articulated!

"The question is simple and non abstract. Do you want a society that supports an economy? Or do you want an economy that supports a society?"

Exactly! That's precisely the capsized thinking of the corporatists.

[mhr]

9. Thanks TahitiNut, I Always Think About Your Charts

When I broach this issue.

[papau]

10. any thoughts on why number looking for work has not grown more?

There has been a small growth - but as a percent of population it has dropped -

indeed without that drop the UE rate goes up and Bush has bad PR

[TahitiNut]

11. Forced early retirements, discouraged workers, ...

... underemployment (take lower paying jobs or lose one of two jobs), emigration, institutionalized (prison, rehab, etc.), and "bottom dropped out" unemployed now homeless and no longer polled by the CPS. No matter how bad we know it is on the "middle" class, it's devastating for the poor and older worker.


Let's remember that the measure of unemployment reported is the "U-3" measure. It doesn't include discouraged workers, those employed part time for economic reasons, or all other marginally attached workers. It also doesn't include those who, due to heightened employment opportunities, choose to work when they might otherwise choose not to.

We're running close to 10% (9.3 to 9.9%) in the measurable unemployed including those classes of worker ... and that doesn't include the forced early retirements, homeless, or newly institutionalized.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

8. kick

[llmart]

12. Oh, for God's sake......

we have been hearing this bullshit for the past 4 years now - how "forecasters see this growth" yada, yada, yada. All I see is bad economic news and personally a huge dive in my standard of living since Bush the f***-up took over.