Study finds Earth temperature 'skyrocketing'

[Minstrel Boy]

Study finds Earth temperature 'skyrocketing'

By Leigh Dayton
January 27, 2005
from The Australian

THE largest ever climate-change experiment reveals that scientists may have dramatically underestimated the threat of global warming.

The study by British scientists, which is published today, found the planet's global temperature could climb by between 2C and 11C because of skyrocketing levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. That more than doubles the current prediction of a 1.4C to 4.5C rise this century.

"When we started out we didn't expect anything like this," said Oxford University's David Stainforth, chief scientist for climateprediction.net.... "If this is the case, it's very dramatic and very scary," Mr Stainforth said.

...

Even rises that are more modest are expected to trigger disastrous changes, including melting glaciers, sea-level rises, shut-down of the Gulf Stream, and increases in droughts, cyclones and other extreme weather events. The new results follow two reports in last week's edition of Science, showing that global warming probably caused the "Great Dying".

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,12065009-2,00.html

[mordarlar]

1. Why the Sun seems to be 'dimming'

>>>But perhaps the most alarming aspect of global dimming is that it may have led scientists to underestimate the true power of the greenhouse effect.

They know how much extra energy is being trapped in the Earth's atmosphere by the extra carbon dioxide we have placed there.

What has been surprising is that this extra energy has so far resulted in a temperature rise of just 0.6 degree Celsius.

This has led many scientists to conclude that the present-day climate is less sensitive to the effects of carbon dioxide than it was, say, during the ice age, when a similar rise in CO2 led to a temperature rise of six degrees Celsius.

But it now appears the warming from greenhouse gases has been offset by a strong cooling effect from dimming - in effect two of our pollutants have been cancelling each other out.

This means that the climate may in fact be more sensitive to the greenhouse effect than previously thought.

If so, then this is bad news, according to Dr Peter Cox, one of the world's leading climate modellers. <<<



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4171591.stm

[psychopomp]

2. If this bears out

it will make Ted Kaczinski into a kind of prophet.

[0007]

32. Are you talking about Ted Kaczynski (The Unibomber)?

That is indeed very interesting. Here is another person who has much to say. "The Artilect War"

First Draft

Prof. Dr. Hugo de Garis
Head, Brain Builder Group,
STARLAB NV,
Blvd. St.Michel 47, B-1040,
Brussels, Belgium, Europe.
tel: + 32 2 740 0740,
fax: + 32 2 742 9654,
[e-mail]
http://www.cs.usu.edu/~degaris


===================================


"The Artilect War"

Sample Chapters of Manuscript

Second Draft

Prof. Dr. Hugo de Garis (1)
Don Mooradian (2)
(1) Head, Brain Builder Group,
STARLAB NV,
Blvd. St.Michel 47, B-1040,
Brussels, Belgium, Europe.
tel: + 32 2 740 0740,
fax: + 32 2 742 9654,
[e-mail]
http://www.cs.usu.edu/~degaris

(2) Professional Journalist,
Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
email. [e-mail]


===================================

Update : 12 August 1999

Since only one copy of my first draft manuscript (see below) has been sold by my agent in a few months, I have no reservations now on putting up my full first draft manuscript on this website. The interest of the media keeps growing and I keep sending out my full first draft to them. Literary agents say my book is "fantastical, too polemical", and not suitable for publication. Nevertheless, I believe the ideas the book contains are of critical importance to global politics in the 21st century and need to be distributed.


===================================

Update : 2 July 1999

I have a coauthor, a prizewinning professional journalist, Don Mooradian, who is helping me write the second draft of the manuscript of "The Artilect War". A preface and two sample chapters of this second draft are included below the first draft (well below).


===================================

Update : 1 June 1999

My literary agent Ms. Marilyn Janson (see below) has seen to it that the complete 1st draft of my book "The Artilect War" can now be purchased via the internet. She has registered the manuscript with an ISBN number, and it is now on sale. If you want to buy the full version of this manuscript (U.S. $15, Outside U.S. $20, + postage costs), then email Marilyn at [e-mail]. If enough of you do this, it will increase the probability that the second draft I am now writing with my coauthor Don Mooradian (see below), will be conventionally published.


==================================



Prof. Dr. Hugo de Garis (left) and Don Mooradian (right)


In June of 1998 I wrote a short manuscript (100 pages) entitled "The Artilect War" which presents my ideas on the prospect of a "gigadeath artilect war" in the mid/late 21st century over the issue of species dominance. I see humanity dividing bitterly into those who want to build artilects (the Cosmists) and those opposed (the Terrans). Since the artilects in an advanced state might decide to wipe out the human species, the Terrans will be prepared to exterminate the Cosmists if the latter are serious about building artilects with super-human intelligence levels. Since both the Cosmist and the Terran sides will include some of the smartest, richest, and most powerful individuals on the planet, this bitter ideological conflict has all the makings of degenerating into a major war. Given the seriousness of the stakes, and the lethality of 21st century weaponry, such a war could result in gigadeath, i.e. the population of the earth.

I am trying to get this book published.

I already have a New York literary agent,

Ms. Marilyn June Janson,
Literary Agency,
Box 1557, Selden,
NY 11784, USA.
tel. (+ 1) [phone],
email. [e-mail]

If you are a publisher reading this or have friends who are publishers who you think might be interested in publishing this manuscript, then you can obtain a complete hard copy from my agent Ms. Janson. I also have a co-author Don Mooradian, a professional journalist [e-mail] with whom I am now preparing a second draft. The first draft was considered by several competent people (including a Pulitzer prize winning journalist who interviewed me for a major newspaper) to be "fascinating, frightening, but in need of some copy editing". One critic, more conservative, a literary agent, described it as "quite well written, but fantastical".

What I am looking for is a publisher who is prepared to do a little work, in the form of having me sit down with a competent copy editor to iron out the literary and social kinks. This is after all, my first book attempt.

If you are an ordinary reader and would like to see this manuscript published, then I suggest you email my agent at [e-mail] giving her a short message to that effect. If thousands of you email her, she can take this evidence to potential publishers, saying "There's a market. Look at all these emails". This is not just for commercial gain on my part. Im trying to stimulate the "artilect debate" here. I'm hoping this book will prove to be instrumental in getting the planet to take the artilect issue seriously, and not just dismiss it as a piece of science fiction, as the majority of humanity still does. This book is not just another book. It aims to get a political movement off the ground.

I include the chapter headings below, and 3 of the chapters, plus a summary and glossary.

Enjoy.

I would appreciate receiving comments, suggestions, constructive criticisms, etc from readers.


I can be reached at -

Prof. Dr. Hugo de Garis,
Head, Brain Builder Group,
STARLAB NV,
Blvd. St. Michel 47, B-1040,
Brussels, Belgium, Europe.
tel: + 32 2 740 0740,
fax: + 32 2 742 9654,
[e-mail]
http://www.cs.usu.edu/~degaris


===================================


"The Artilect War"

By

Prof. Dr. Hugo de Garis


Contents


Preface

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. Artilect Technologies

Chapter 3. The Cosmists

Chapter 4. The Terrans

Chapter 5. The Artilect War

Chapter 6. The Artilect Era

Chapter 7. Reader Feedback

Chapter 8. Summary

Glossary

References



=========================================



Preface

We live in a relatively peaceful era, now that the cold war is over. Telecommunications and advances in computer technology are creating social forces which may eventually culturally homogenize the planet, leading to the use of a global language (very probably English, as it is already the most widely spoken first or second language) and hence the rapid exchange of ideas and understanding on a planetary scale.

There may be ideological disputes during this cultural homogenization process, but with everyone exposed to the best ideas the world has to offer, only the most competitive ideas will survive, which in time will be absorbed by virtually every thinking person on this planet. Once people can literally speak the world language, ideas will travel rapidly, so that a new idea in the mind of its inventor at one moment can become well known to billions of fellow world citizens within minutes to months.

As ideological differences melt away, as national governments find that they can agree more on political issues, the more likely it is that they will combine forces to tackle common problems. This process is already underway (e.g. the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Health Organization (WHO), etc.)

If one takes a broad historical view, over several millennia, the size of autonomous political units has grown from the migratory band (e.g. the African bushmen), to the village (e.g. fishing communities), to towns (e.g. early London and Paris), to cities (e.g. the Italian city states), to countries (e.g. France), to "Communities" (i.e. the European Community (EC)). If this trend continues, I believe it is only a question of time before we will see the growth of the global state, an idea I call "Globa".

The truly wonderful thing about the Globa concept is that for the first time in history, humanity could free itself from major wars. Once the major states such as the US, Europe, China, India, Russia, Japan etc can truly agree on things (due to a large degree of cultural homogeneity, with everyone speaking the same global language and having the same ideas, and due to a truly global telecommunications system) they could impose their wills on the smaller countries, forcing legal rather than military solutions to international disputes.

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

[Baclava]

3. Snowball Earth

http://www-eps.harvard.edu/people/faculty/hoffman/snowball_paper.html

"Many lines of evidence support a theory that the entire Earth was ice-covered for long periods 600-700 million years ago. Each glacial period lasted for millions of years and ended violently under extreme greenhouse conditions. These climate shocks triggered the evolution of multicellular animal life, and challenge long-held assumptions regarding the limits of global change."

Maybe the Earth has decided it's time to shake off her fleas and try a new experiment.

[sphincter]

13. I think you may be right...

We are doing more damage than good to mother earth, so why should she keep us around?

[Emillereid]

19. I've often thought how ironic it is that people run around saying

they want to save the earth. But the earth is going to be alright -- just not hospitable to our life form any more. But as far as I can tell it a great deal of hubris to believe that we are somehow going to destroy the earth -- I imagine it will last as long as the sun with or without life.

I have heard that the very first life forms on the planet gave off oxygen as their waste product and eventually they were so successful they died of their own waste -- we appear to be following the same script. I'm sure that life will go on -- I sure hope it's smarter next time.

[gemini62167]

31. Sad but true

I remember many years ago having a jarring exerience (some would say spiritual. . .) in which I felt this tremendous anger and sadness from the Earth. Sadness as if a parent were hurt by the pain inflicted by it's children, anger as if the parent had suffered enough and was giving last warning.

It was then that I realized, that the Earth would go on regardless. Our real concern has not really been over the earth, but more over it's ability to sustain US. How terribly narrow that attitude is.

[darkism]

4. But global warming is a myth!

What a bunch of junk science!

In all seriousness though...we're screwed. Yea, that's it.

:scared:

[Blue_State_Elitist]

7. Indeed

and the earth is also flat...

[bloom]

5. "It warned that climate change could kick in within 10 years...

unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut."

I really don't think people would choose to do that. It's bound to get much worse - not better.

[Minstrel Boy]

8. Human life is short enough, the choice is a no-brainer:

10 years of relative comfort, over millions of years of desolation.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Relative comfort? Hmmm.....

Ximinez: Confess! Confess! Confess!
Biggles: It doesn't seem to be hurting her, lord.
Ximinez: Have you got all the stuffing up one end?
Biggles: Yes, lord.
Ximinez : Hm! She is made of harder stuff! Cardinal Fang! Fetch...THE COMFY CHAIR!

[lovuian]

6. Man is in for a big surprise as well as Corporations and

Countries!!!

[leftofcool]

9. Oh well .... (warning strong sarcasm)

the good new is, when the big one hits, we won't have to worry about gay marriages.

Left of Cool

[cincinnati_liberal]

10. I Got Reemed For Reporting This For A Third Time

But hey, people like to whine. It's a big story and should be posted as many times as it takes for people to pay attention. Why this isn't being treated as a major story by more media outlets, go figure. Could be their bosses have friends who make money off CFCs, but maybe that's just liberal myth. I say do whatever you can to bring this to people's attention. Have a nice day, it's getting hotter.

[Matilda]

15. Ding! You got it in one.

"Could be their bosses have friends who make money off CFCs..."

Those at the big end of town are the ones with their heads in the
sand, because cutting profits is not an option - even if it does
mean the end of human life. It will take a massive protest by
people worldwide to force change - governments are too much in the
pockets of big business to take unpopular action. GW Bush is such
a perfect example. Or in the case of John Howard, Australia makes
too much money from coal exports for him to consider that the
survival of the human race might be more important - I guess he
takes comfort from the thought that the won't be around when it
all comes to a dreadful end anyway. But that is the reason why he
has refused to sign the Kyoto Agreement.

There are also those who simply can't conceive that the planet will
continue without humans on board - they really believe we pathetic
little creatures are the centre of the universe.

[Minstrel Boy]

11. kick, because my children will inherit this n/t

[despairing optimist]

14. Human extinction, the ultimate Social Security reform

The bill never comes due. Ah, those crafty Catos.

[TahitiNut]

16. We need to grow massive amounts of biomass. Hemp!

:thumbsup:

[Straight Shooter]

17. I can believe it; it's January over here and it feels like early April

Usually in January we're hiking with snowshoes every day, but right now even the mountain peaks are barely covered in snow. Last year at this time I was wearing a down jacket on hikes, and this year it's a fleece vest with light gloves. The trails are mud, or sometimes what little snow we get, soon melts and turns to ice. I moved to Oregon for the snow and really enjoyed it for the first few years, but every year the winters are just a wee bit warmer, and it isn't because I'm acclimating.

It's creepy. It's downright creepy. :scared:

[DistantWind88]

23. Looks like California got your snow

this year. That damn jet stream!

[leftchick]

26. Has to be that damn jet stream....

:eyes:

http://www.climatehotmap.org/namerica.html




The vast North American continent ranges from the lush sub-tropical climate of Florida to the frozen ice and tundra of the Arctic. Within these extremes are two wealthy industrialized countries with diverse ecosystems at risk. Yet the United States and Canada are two of the largest global emitters of the greenhouse gases that contribute to a warming climate. Examples of all 10 of the "hotspot" categories can be found in this region, including changes such as polar warming in Alaska, coral reef bleaching in Florida, animal range shifts in California, glaciers melting in Montana, and marsh loss in the Chesapeake Bay.

For North America we have many more hotspots than for some other regions of the world, although impact studies have been emerging in larger numbers in recent years from previously under-studied regions. This higher density of early warning signs in the US and Canada is due in part to the fact that these regions have more readily accessible climatic data and more comprehensive programs to monitor and study environmental change, in part to the disproportionate warming that has been observed over the mid-to-high-latitude continents compared to other regions during the last century, and in part to capture the attention of North Americans who need to take action now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

[Chico Man]

28. In RI, we are under 3 1/2 feet of snow, tonight it will be -8 w/o WCF

Weather this fall and winter have been extreme. This past summer was quite cold as well.

[daleo]

18. But, what about the Rapture?

We don't have to worry. The Rapture is just around the corner, like it always is.

[sarahlee]

20. Only one paper was reporting this this morning

Saw it first here:
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=YQ1JNX04EIXKCCRBAELCFEY?type=scienceNews&storyID=7440023
This is a huge story, but now 14 hours later, still only a few sites are carrying it. I listened to the news all day and heard nothing.

==========
Home PCs help redefine climate change
http://abc.net.au/science/news/enviro/EnviroRepublish_1290033.htm

===========
Bleak first results from the world’s largest climate change experiment
http://www.physorg.com/news2831.html

===========
Screen saver weather trial predicts 10°C rise in British temperatures
telegraph.co.uk
===========
Global warming is 'twice as bad as previously thought'
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=604955

===========
Ah... now some US MSM sites...

Climate-modeling study produces hot results
Experiment hints at potential 20-degree temperature rise
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6872692/

===========
Global warming may be twice as bad as feared
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1458347,00.html

===========
Spare PC Power Aids Climate Scientists
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0126_050126_pcclimate.html

===========
Alarm at new climate warning
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4210629.stm

===========
Call to fit new homes with solar panels and wind vanes
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/32255.html

===========
Computer models indicate global warming
http://www.newsday.com/news/health/ny-hswarm0127,0,711576.story?coll=ny-leadhealthnews-headlines

===========
Study: Global Warming Worse Than Feared
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/afp/20050124/globalwarming.html

==========================
Stainforth and his colleagues have only completed the test-drive phase of their project. They hope future runs with refined and more complex models will lead to an accurate, validated forecast for the 21st-century climate.
To participate, log on to http://www.climateprediction.net.

[SemperEadem]

21. Interesting all of these environment stories coming out these days

after the tsunami--stories of environment catastrophes!!! More 'rhetoric for end-timers' or a 'too-be-expected-development-due-to-how-we've-been-treating-the-earth?

[dbt]

22. More Chemtrails! That'll fix EVERYTHING!

Day and night, no time off, the white jets criss-cross the sky, laying down plumes of--what? The trails expand laterally, remaining for hours on end, turning the sky a sickly, wispy off-white, dimming the sun.

And we're supposed to believe that the crap in our atmosphere is "peristent contrails!"

:freak:
dbt

[Minstrel Boy]

24. Temperature 'could rise by 11 degrees', says study

Nearly 100,000 people worldwide have taken part in the largest ever climate study and shown that global warming could be more extreme than previously thought — temperatures could rise by 2-11 degrees Celsius if carbon dioxide emissions go unchecked.

Previous studies predicted that doubling pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide emissions could make temperatures rise by 2-5 degrees.

...

It is important to note that the bottom of the range corresponds to previous estimates, says Myles Allen of the Department of Physics at Oxford University, United Kingdom, who helped set up the experiment.

This shows the results don't simply mean scientists are less certain about the effects of greenhouse gases than before, but that worst-case scenarios might have been underestimated.

"The uncertainty is greater at the upper end — not the lower end," says Allen.

http://www.scidev.net/news/index.cfm?fuseaction=readnews&itemid=1878&language=1

[The Magistrate]

36. That Is A Sound Point, Sir, Worth The Highlighting

That various studies agree on one parameter, though differing on another, is a very good reason to accept the validity of the numbers on which they agree. There is some vexation inherent to comment on this subject, since there do remain great uncertainties associated with the workings of the planet's climate, and it is open to legitimate question whether human or natural effects are at work in many particular instances. But there is no honest doubt possible about the basic elements of the case, that quanties of gases capable of trapping more heat in the atmosphere are being pumped into it, which must take some effect, and that this is a new and artificial development, seperate from the normal and natural cycles of the planet's existance.

"The earth has a skin and that skin has diseases, one of which is called man."

[Tsiyu]

25. A kick for us

Too bad many people are too greedy and thoughtless to consider:

Mama Earth doesn't NEED us.

We humans DO need her....:think:

[Mojorabbit]

27. between this

and the coming financial collapse in this country we better be making some sort of plans but what?

[adigal]

29. Rush Limbaugh said there is no such thing

and he would never lie.

These scientist must hate America.

[redqueen]

30. I wonder

Are there people for whom population reduction is a goal, and if so, is this considered good news?

[Lorien]

33. Why is this issue a non-issue on DU?

Do most DUers buy the GOP BS that global warming is a "myth"? do they need the TV to tell them if there's a crisis for them to believe it? Do they think that it won't affect them in their lifetimes, so they don't care? Do they know that it WILL probably kill them, but since they might have 20 or 30 years left, they won't think about it? What's the deal, DU? why does a company that fires workers for smoking get you all in a tizzy, while the end of life on earth only troubles a few of us?

[dbt]

34. Too many "gray areas," even for us Liberals.

When the discussion turns to a subject upon which so much disinformation has been heaped, rational minds back away for fear of getting into (gasp!) Conspiracy Theories.

I say Embrace The Tinfoil.

:freak:
dbt

[grace0418]

35. Somebody alert the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works!

Oh, wait, here's what the CHAIR of that committee had to say:

"Global warming is 'the second-largest hoax ever played on the American people, after the separation of church and state.'

-- Senator James Inhofe, R-OK, Chair of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works

[Megahurtz]

37. Damn Fucking Oil!!!!!!!

Damn Fucking Bush!!! Keeping terror going and smothering the earth just for the almighty $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Why doesn't this guy just WAKE UP? It's the FUCKING OIL that's ruining our atmosphere.

He seems to think that "The Rapture" will take him up and he won't be here to suffer what's coming.
I think that the reason why he's so hell bent on bringing on ARMEGEDDON is because he thinks that it will make "the Rapture" come quicker to take him away beforehand and he won't have to deal with any it.

Dude, has it ever crossed your mind that maybe, possibly, here you might be interpreting the Bible WRONG??? What happens when this World War III that you are so insistant on bringing on starts, and you are STILL HERE???

And get rid of the Fucking Oil!!!

Sorry about the rant, but Fucking A already!!!

[struggle4progress]

38. kick