Wednesday Isabel LBN Thread: Up to 90,000 Urged to Evacuate

[VolcanoJen]

Hurricane Watchers: Please post all your Wednesday Isabel LBN updates in this thread. When posting new information about the storm's track, it would be helpful to use the word "UPDATE" in your subject line.

Here's a link to the Monday/Tuesday Isabel LBN Thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=114661&mesg_id=114661

Here is the 5:00 am update from the National Hurricane Center; the next update will come at 11:00 am:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/170834.shtml?

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


And finally, here's the latest on the evacuation:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030917/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_isabel&cid=519&ncid=716

Many weather-tested Outer Banks residents sniffed at a weakening Hurricane Isabel, but forecasters warned that it still had to cross the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, which one expert called "high-octane fuel" for the still dangerous storm.

Isabel weakened from a Category 5 monster with 160 mph winds to a strong Category 2 early Wednesday, with sustained winds near 110 mph. Up to 90,000 residents along the North Carolina coast were urged to evacuate before the storm makes its expected landfall early Thursday along the Outer Banks.

<snip>

A hurricane warning was in effect from Cape Fear, N.C., northward to the North Carolina/Virginia state line. Northward from there, a hurricane watch was in effect to Chincoteague, Va., including Chesapeake bay and the tidal Potomac. A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are possible within 24 hours.

[Don_G]

1. Current Track (Dynamic GIF)

[radfringe]

2. Maps (automatically updates)

Strike forcast:


http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm13/projectedpath_large.html



Current position:

[Don_G]

3. North Carolina Storm Surge Maps

Listed by costal counties can be found here:

http://www.ncstormsurge.com/comaps.html

[Don_G]

4. Virgina Storm Surge Maps

Listed by coastal counties can be found here:

http://www.hremc.org/surge.htm

[veganwitch]

5. i am really upset

that weather.com's zip code weather reports have absolutely NO mention of isabel. i live in DC and "its coming right for us!" the thursday night weather says "winds of 40 mph." what the hell!!!

[Don_G]

6. You Might Try AccuWeather

They seem to have more information gathered at one site than the others.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/index.asp?partner=6037

[Don_G]

7. Latest Advisory Bulliten

AXNT20 KNHC 171031 2003260 1030
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED 17 SEP 2003
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE ISABEL IS CENTERED NEAR 29.4N 72.2W AT 17/0900 UTC
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 958 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISABEL REMAINS A
STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
OUTFLOW TO THE N EXTENDS WITHIN 700 NM FROM THE CENTER AND
WITHIN 500 NM E OF THE CENTER BUT IS LIMITED TO THE S. ISABEL IS
BEING EASED WESTWARD DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E N OF
OUR REGION THAT IS FORECASTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. ONCE
ISABEL MAKES LANDFALL THE SHORTWAVE MAY BEND THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK TO THE W. THE MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT OF
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THU AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE COAST AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 27N TO 34N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W.
TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED WAVE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM
13N41W TO 18.5N44W AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 18.5N46.5W.
TROPICAL WAVE IN E CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W
5N24W 9N40W 9N50W 11N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 12N TO 16N E OF 19W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 39W TO 42W.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 38W.
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 21N W OF 88W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE W GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE E PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO.
LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE E UNITED STATES N OF 25N FROM 77W
TO 90W. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N85W TO 26N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE GULF N OF 26N FROM 81W TO 94W AND ALL OF THE SE UNITED
STATES.
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A 200/250 NM RADIUS. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 200/300 NM OF A LINE FROM JUST SW OF ISABEL
NEAR 27N74W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N84W.
WEAK EASTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W SW
TO 25N53W THEN S TO 12N56W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300/400 NM
OF THE AXIS. WEAK/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 17N FROM 52W TO
58W.
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SE ATLANTIC S OF 31N E OF 44W
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
17N24W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO
25N BETWEEN 19W AND 36W...AND FROM 16N TO 30W W OF 18W TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA.
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE NW COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
29N12W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A 200/250 NM RADIUS.
SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N34W
EXTENDING SW ALONG 29N41W 26N53W TO 22N58W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 48W.
A 1019 MB HIGH IS IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N27W.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 94W TO 96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S
OF 24N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 91W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 78W TO 81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF
17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA FROM 78W TO 80W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N52W TO 20N54W.
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR HURRICANE ISABEL AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N43W TO 24N46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 78W TO
THE COAST OF FLORIDA.
$$
WALLACE
wxtlist.k: done

[VolcanoJen]

8. UPDATE: 2:00 pm Advisory - Still a Category 2

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/171735.shtml?

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS
UNCERTAIN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA WELL
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISABEL
IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315
MILES.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

[WillyT]

9. When This Thing Was Still A Cat 4 Or 5, A Hurricane Hunter Plane...

clocked a gust of over 230 mph!!!

SHIT! :scared:

[Emboldened Chimp]

10. Those guys are crazy!

You'd have to be to fly into one of those things!

[WillyT]

11. Yep, But I'm Glad They Do It !!! --- 100 Years Earlier, We Wouldn't...

have a clue what was about to happen.



:shrug:

[WillyT]

12. Kick !!!

:kick:

[Don_G]

13. Latest Guesstimate To Landfall

Between 11 AM and 1 PM tomorrow at high tide in the general area with an expected storm surge 7 to 15 feet on top of high tide. There's a possibility that Isabel may strengthen in intensity to a Cat 3 before making landfall but the chances are iffy due to strong, dry winds coming from the direction of Florida.

DU'ers in low lying areas in North Carolina and the Virgina areas may want to check your local forecast and prepare for the storm.

Good luck!

[WillyT]

14. Yo !!! --- Everybody Cool ???

:shrug: