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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:11 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY SEPT 18....(#1)
Thursday September 18, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 494
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 304
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 279 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 337 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 179
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 663
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 17, 2003

Dow... 9,545.65 -21.69 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq... 1,883.10 -4.15 (-0.22%)
S&P 500.... 1,025.97 -3.35 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.19% -0.10 (-2.33%)
Gold future... 377.30 +2.70 (+0.72%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P


||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact susan@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:32 AM
Response to Original message
1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman
Stocks in Distribution; Precious Metals are Firm

This morning it looked like stocks were going to see some follow through to the upside since they took off yesterday when the Federal Reserve announced they would keep the money spigot wide open until inflation picks up and job creation begins in the U.S. The Fed announcement launched the Dow Industrial Index 100 points higher in the last 90 minutes yesterday and followed through today to reach the intraday high of 9,594 before heading lower this afternoon to finally close at 9,545, a loss of 21 points or 0.23%. Likewise, the NASDAQ Composite reached the intra-day high of 1,894 today on two occasions, but could not break through to reach 1,900. The NASDAQ closed off its lows at 1,883, a loss of four points from yesterday. The uptrend remains intact.

<..cut..>The activity in gold and silver also portend financial storms in the Foreign Exchange Market. Currencies are being inflated around the globe and investors are already turning to gold and silver as a safe haven to preserve their wealth. The U.S. Dollar bear market will continue as long as the Feds continue their relentless campaign for growth at any expense.

Dow/Gold Ratio

We are now approaching a critical crossroads where we will see if the primary trends reassert themselves. Stocks and the dollar should turn lower, commodities and precious metals should resume their up-trend and bonds will probably remain elevated as long as the Asian Central Governments continue to buy U.S. debt paper. When foreign appetite diminishes for U.S. debt, interest rates will begin to rise in earnest. We are dependent on foreigners to support our dollar.

lots of numbers and charts
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:45 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Mornin' Ozy!
We are dependent on foreingers to support our dollar.

This is a powerful weapon to be used against us. Funny, isn't it? How we are putting a potential WMD right into the hands of others to crush us with later? Let us hope Team Bush is careful not to insult the biggest supporters too badly....

To tell you the truth I wouldn't be investing additional funds in anything but gold right now. Trading existing assets is one thing but risking new investment in stocks (anytime soon) smacks of folly IMO. But hey that's me, I've little appetite for risk right now.

UE numbers out this morning. Grasso's gone. Russia and the Saudis playing nuclear footsie under the table and Team Bush is wobbling under the weight of an adventure gone awry (Iraq), an economy circling the bowl, the countless lies coming to light and 10 Democratic Presidential contenders nipping at their heels. No wonder Chimpy's appearance is so terrible lately. I'll bet Rove swills Mylanta frequently.

How I wish they hadn't been allowed to get this far into their destruction of the country before so many began to wake up. It's going to be all that more difficult to fix after we take the WH and Congress back in '04. ;-)

Julie
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:59 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. If I had any funds to invest -
I certainly would not put anything in stocks. Ralph Nader was correct to say (and I paraphrase) that "things will have to become really bad before people will pay attention".

According to Paul Krugman, without regime change in 2004 we will certainly be on the path to fiscal disaster. The fiscal squeezing we feel now is just a prelude to the systemic intractable illness that will descend on us like a wave of locusts should Bush retain his squattership, IMO. Perhaps things do not need to become so horribly rotten before people pay attention to the source of this gross mismanagement.

The tremors that we collectively sense underneath the Bush administration's foundation do mean something. High profile people are not afraid of them anymore. There is no more impugning of patriotism for dissent. As far as I see, no one has anything to lose. Therefore, the Bush administration is on the defensive and that is a very unflattering position to hold.

Now, how this translates into market activity remains to be seen. There's still a heavy veneer with several layers of varnish over the markets' numbers.
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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #9
16. Wow - love the phrasing

"The fiscal squeezing we feel now is just a prelude to the systemic intractable illness that will descend on us like a wave of locusts should Bush retain his squattership, IMO. Perhaps things do not need to become so horribly rotten before people pay attention to the source of this gross mismanagement."

Nice work Ozy.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #16
19. Thank you.
I am honored that it passes muster despite the peppering of metaphor.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:35 AM
Response to Original message
2. Windy day for stocks
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stock futures tipped lower ahead of the open Thursday, as investors considered a weaker-than-expected report on the chip sector and awaited readings on jobless claims and leading indicators.

Investors also mulled New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso's resignation and the potential impact of an approaching hurricane.

<..cut..>

It's unclear if Grasso's resignation late Wednesday will have much impact on the day's session. But institutional investors have been among those demanding his departure since it was revealed that he had a retirement package valued at $140 million, particularly in the wake of the corporate scandals that have roiled markets for the past two years.

more
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
3. they just reported the unemployment figures
for the week - but they revised last week's numbers -

This week - initial claim were 399,000

Last week - claims were revised to 428,000 from 422,000

so - do you think that there may be a little shuffling going on here??

They wanted to get the numbers in under 400,000 and now are going to quietly revise them??

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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:43 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. They always revise last week's numbers
This week, it looks like a major drop from last week to this, but next Thursday, today's numbers will be higher...the 4-week average is more stable and that remains higher. Add that revision of 6,000 to this week's figure and you get a better feel for the jobLOSS economy (hint: it still sucks)
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:58 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. here's the four week average numbers
(just like you said)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={DB8933FA-3028-48DA-A824-8163838BEC13}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

Averaged U.S. jobless claims at two-month high By Mike Maynard
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. labor market is still weakening, the Labor Department said. The four-week average for first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose for a fourth straight week, climbing by 2,000 to 410,750. It's the highest reading since mid-July.


...more...

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:47 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. Of course!
The unemployment numbers are always reported to accommodate the political climate. There are always revisions. So whenever I see the unemployment numbers reported, the first question is 'what will this week's numbers look like next week?'
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. thanks Maeve and Ozymandius!
sometimes it feels like the spinning is so fast and manic that it is hard to remain standing.

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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. What can we say? We're good!
:D

It's sort of like trying to find the eye of the storm to view from; however, storms can have more than one eye...(watched the weather channel this morning--can you tell?)

Today is likely to be driven by hot air...and feel like this:

I've got yardwork to do before the weekend storms hit Ohio.

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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 08:55 AM
Response to Original message
11. the daily dollar watch
is rather discouraging

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 95.31 Change -0.43 (-0.45%)


Open 95.92 Previous Close 95.74
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 09:26 AM
Response to Original message
12. 10:24 numbers: maybe a happy face over Grasso's departure
DJIA 9,598.50 52.85 (0.55%)
NASDAQ 1,892.48 9.38 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,032.75 6.78 (0.66%)


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Capn Sunshine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 09:57 AM
Response to Original message
13. Somethin's happening here
"what it is ain't exactly clear" but I will tell you one thing...have any of you noted the street is running out of excuses for lack of volume?

First it was "wait 'till after the war" Then it was "wait until August is over" then it was "wait until the FED" now it's wait until after the hurricane"

What they are not telling you that is happening with MY client base , which I fully believe is a microcosm of the market:

Selling into the rally ( even the P&G and GE!!) and using the proceeds to buy quality investment grade real estate.

If you know any commercial real estate guys, ask them if their traffic has picked up.

Here in Southern CA , the apartment market is as hot as housing: quality (CAP rate 5-7) multi unit is getting multiple offers over asking the day it comes out; and it only "comes out" after first going to all the private big boys buying everything in sight, including a lot of hedge and banking operations that used to be in equities.

So, what this means to the all equities all the time crowd, anybody's guess, although I'd venture that they have lost a major leg of their "greater fool " market...

Later gang....




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Coventina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 10:23 AM
Response to Original message
14. The "I Ching" on today's market
Hello everyone,

Today's reading has no changing lines, so the only hexagram shown is COLLECTIVE FORCE. Or so it is called by my kinder, gentler I Ching. The traditional name for this hexagram is THE ARMY. For some reason, the appearance of this hexagram at this time fills me with disquiet.

Ching says, "Any venture now requires a strong inner conviction of your correctness." Well, we know this is not lacking in our current regime. They always have a strong inner conviction of their correctness.....I just hope they are not cooking up some new scheme for the ruin of all.....

I think it will be relatively quiet in the markets today. I think everyone is hunkering down for the next big bombshell.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 10:27 AM
Response to Original message
15. things like shiney on the Street
11:25 and things are going swimmingly! I'm just in from a truly awful trip to the dentist and have missed all the action since open.


Dow 9,620.11 +74.46 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq 1,895.13 +12.03 (+0.64%)
S&P 500 1,035.30 +9.33 (+0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.209% +0.018


Are the fake UE numbers driving this?

Julie
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. I'm sorry to hear that Julie.
I mean about your trip to the dentist.

As for the numbers, Capn Sunshine posted that there is extremely low volume in the market these days. Fewer transactions are easier to manipulate.

Occasionally, I forget that the end of the week typically brings an infusion of funds from the auto-buy programs that correspond to 401(k) packages. Since today is Thursday, some of those deductions may have already occurred, thus pumping resources into the markets. - Just a thought...
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 10:54 AM
Response to Original message
17. 11:53 and such a happy, happy place Wall Street must be!
11:30AM: After taking a pause around the top of the hour, the indices charge higher again, emboldened by the Nasdaq's move above its September high... Despite chatter of overextended technical levels and slower than anticipated order rates in the semiconductor sector, traders have chosen to not fight the recent bullish trend, and instead bid stocks higher... Semiconductor remains underwater, but strength in defense, biotech, drug, transportation, and financial has compensated for its losses
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,623.34 +77.69 (+0.81%)
Nasdaq 1,899.41 +16.31 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,035.85 +9.88 (+0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 4.235% +0.044

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. levelling off at 12:16
DJIA 9,614.08 68.43 (0.72%)
NASDAQ 1,897.51 14.41 (0.77%)
S&P 500 1,035.09 9.12 (0.89%)


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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
21. the wind may start blowing a different direction
because the Philadelphia Fed numbers just came in

Sep 14.6 reported
20.0 forecast
17.0 anticipated
22.1 previous

and this is what that number is supposed to mean (per Forbes)

Yet to come on Thursday is the Philadelphia Fed's business activity survey. Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a median reading of 17.3 in September, which would be a decent result after August's leap to 22.1.

The survey is seen as a guide on what to expect from the more important Institute of Supply Management report on national manufacturing so a strong result could upset bonds.
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
22. Mortgage rates back down
Mortgage rates at 2-month lows
Fed's decision to hold interest rates drops 30-year to 6.01%, 15-year to 5.30%; 1-year ARM at 3.81%.
September 18, 2003: 12:21 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Renewed signs that the Federal Reserve intends to keep interest rates at historically low levels in order to feed the economic recovery pushed mortgage rates to their lowest level since late July.

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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
23. Hey all - checking in with numbers at 11:34
Edited on Thu Sep-18-03 11:44 AM by mrsteve
looks like you might have something bout those Fed numbers - seems the rise in the markets has flattened out in the last 20 minutes:

Dow 9,616.39 +70.74 (+0.74%)
Nasdaq 1,899.53 +16.43 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,035.54 +9.57 (+0.93%)
10-Yr Bond 4.244% +0.053

Yahoo Finance somewhat agrees:

"12:30PM: Stock market barely blinks at the weaker than expected September Philadelphia Fed Index, and continues to trade near session highs... The manufacturing report checked in at 14.6, below the consensus estimate of 17.0, but suggested expansion within the region... The key new orders component marched to 19.3, the highest level since November of 1999, and both prices paid and received moved higher as well... As such, the market has not read too much into the disappointing headline number, and taken comfort that manufacturing is still working its way out of its winter slump..."

Yahoo Finance Daily Updates

(on edit: left out the "somewhat" in my statement - sorry)
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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
24. 1:00 numbers - all sideways

Ever since the Fed announcement, the graph has been sideways - little change in the Nasdaq or Dow

Dow 9,619.55 +73.90 (+0.77%)
Nasdaq 1,899.43 +16.33 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,035.88 +9.90 (+0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 4.248% +0.057

10 year up pretty good, though - up .56 (1.36%) for the day.
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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
25. At 1:40 - lethergy gives way to a rise
as both major indexes begin to creep upward

Dow 9,643.69 +98.04 (+1.03%)
Nasdaq 1,903.06 +19.96 (+1.06%)
S&P 500 1,038.13 +12.15 (+1.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.200% +0.009

Yahoo finance cheerleads:
"1:30PM: Sellers remain virtual non-participants in today's session as the indices continue to extend their gains... Up volume is outpacing down volume by a nearly 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE, and a more than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq... Strikingly, recent leadership areas have taken a backseat to groups that have underperformed in the past month... Brokerage, for instance, is at the helm of the advance thanks to a strong Q3 (Aug) report from Bear Stearns that demonstrated bond-centric financial institutions can still show solid growth in the current market environment.."

Yahoo Finance Updates
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Don't you just keep waiting for a POP!!! ?
Bubbles burst, sooner or later and I find myself feeling like edging away from this one and covering my ears.

I could be wrong, but I'm still waiting until November to admit it.

Dow 9,651.27 +105.62 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 1,904.98 +21.88 (+1.16%)
S&P 500 1,039.17 +13.20 (+1.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.191% +0.000
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. pressure keeps building
These numbers really take the crap prize. Somewhere, someone is laughing whenever anyone asks, "what the hell is going on here?"

1:47
DJIA 9,649.59 103.94 (1.09%)
NASDAQ 1,904.87 21.77 (1.16%)
S&P 500 1,039.09 13.12 (1.28%)


I am gone for the day folks. Please be well.
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Imajika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 01:14 PM
Response to Original message
28. These stock market threads...
...are interesting.

One thing I have noticed though, is the assumption that stock market rally is just some sort of bubble which is bound to burst anytime. Now I am not an economist, but I do have a least a vague working knowledge of the subject - and I just can't see why there is always so much pessimism about the stock market in these threads.

Now here is my question. Why the assumption that the improving market is either a bubble or just temporary growth? From my reading, virtually every single economic indicator is positive with the exception of the stagnant unemployment rate. Isn't the unemployment rate a lagging indicator of the health of the economy? Isn't the fact that because most other indicators point to sustained economic recovery suggest that this is not a market bubble?

Now, I am not saying that an improvement means Bush has been a succesful steward of the economy. The entire forum would likely agree that this is not the case, especially when considering the massive deficit. But in terms of stock market growth, isn't what Bush is doing almost exactly the same as Reagan? Huge increases in defense spending coupled with large deficits? And didn't that result in the appearance of a relatively strong economy and an upswing in the stock market which did not burst?

So why do so many assume that the rising stock market is only a bubble? Nothing I read or watch indicates this? It would seem to me that this could be a terrific time to invest in the market. What exactly am I missing here.

Imajika
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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. Several reasons for the gloom and doom on these threads
Edited on Thu Sep-18-03 01:42 PM by mrsteve
First, admittedly, there is a certain amount of schaudenfreude going on - many of us to at least a limited extent want the market to tank, just to show the *'s economic policies aren't worth the ideas they are stolen from.

However, even as we put aside this emotional attachment and look at the real conditions, we see the following:

1) Federal debt is huge and growing, thus putting a lid on the credit needed to support a full economic recovery.

2) *'s tax cuts are just making recovery slower, because instead of middle class taxpayers getting tax cuts or government support and plugging that money back into the economy, the rich recipients of the tax cut gravy train are investing overseas and in real estate (see Sunshine's comment above) instead of on Wall Street, e.g., in businesses that build jobs.

2) Unemployment is a lagging indicator of recovery, true, however, few can point to a recovery where the jobs lagged as badly or as large as they have here - depite *'s whitewash, the real unemployment rate is closer to 10% than 6%, and until the consumer on the street is really confident about their job, they will not spend the kind of money that will jumpstart the economy overall.

3) Foreign investors are beginning to move money out of the US, and since foreign national hold roughly 35% of the US debt, if they begin selling it off loudly that will quickly kill the recovery.

So, if the economy is as sick as many of us think it is, why does the stock market still rise? As pointed out yesterday, insider trading is running 44.5 to 1 sell to buy. Maybe the insiders see this as a sucker's rally, while man on the street (if you'll excuse the phrase) is having smoke blown up their ass by pundits, analysts, and brokers who are desperate to keep their juicy jobs and commissions.

So that's why we (or perhaps just I) tend in this thread to see a grey lining for Wall Street in the silver clouds of this so-called recovery, and wonder why the market is still defying gravity.

And the very best part - I learned most all of this by reading DU, especially in this thread.:-)

(edit: bloody typos!!!)
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #29
31. Wow, good job!
I think you did a good job of explaining doubt regarding this "terrific" time for the market. It just plain makes no sense.

With that said, it's 2:44 and things couldn't be prettier:


Dow 9,638.85 +93.20 (+0.98%)
Nasdaq 1,902.89 +19.79 (+1.05%)
S&P 500 1,037.59 +11.62 (+1.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.189% -0.002

Julie
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Imajika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #29
33. Thanks for the response
Edited on Thu Sep-18-03 02:17 PM by Imajika
Lets look at some of your points.

"First, admittedly, there is a certain amount of schaudenfreude going on - many of us to at least a limited extent want the market to tank, just to show the *'s economic policies aren't worth the ideas they are stolen from."

This I assume is true of some people. This is a political board and it is a given that some people would root for just about anything bad to happen if I hurts Bush come 04'?

But for dedicated stock market enthusiasts, isn't it rather difficult to actually be hoping the market dives? I mean, most people that follow the market have a fair amount invested and hope the market goes up no matter what. Afterall, there are plenty of other reasons Bush could be defeated during the next election.

"Federal debt is huge and growing, thus putting a lid on the credit needed to support a full economic recovery."

How does this theory square with the fact that the deficit ballooned in the 80's and the market grew for years?

"few can point to a recovery where the jobs lagged as badly or as large as they have here - depite *'s whitewash, the real unemployment rate is closer to 10% than 6%"

I will take your word for it. But I wonder if this is really the case. I would have to investigate to know for sure, but hasn't the unemployment rate always left uncounted those that gave up trying to find work? I recognize that the government periodically changes the way it does the Unemployment Rate calculation, but haven't those people whom have run out of benefits and given up trying to get help from the government always been left uncounted? So how is the "real unemployment rate" of 9% now differ from any other time?

"Foreign investors are beginning to move money out of the US, and since foreign national hold roughly 35% of the US debt, if they begin selling it off loudly that will quickly kill the recovery."

But if foreign investors perceive that the US economy is improving, why would they begin selling off "loudly"?

"Maybe the insiders see this as a sucker's rally, while man on the street (if you'll excuse the phrase) is having smoke blown up their ass by pundits, analysts, and brokers who are desperate to keep their juicy jobs and commissions."

Hmmm. It is a little hard for me to believe that the majority of analysts whom seem to be saying that the economy is improving and the market is looking to rally are lying.

But I agree that many of these people are dedicated to keeping Americans interested and excited about the stock market. Nobody likes a sourpuss, so those that don't see everything coming up roses are probably not going to get much airtime on CNBC. Still, my read is that most economists think the economy and the market is improving and will continue to do so.

Either way. You make some good points. Thanks for responding.

Imajika
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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 02:52 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. And thanks for your reply
How very civil it was too. It seems that comments anymore on the threads at DU are either pat agreements or flames with nothing in between, so it's nice to get a polite disagreement and discussion for a change.

For the most part, I feel badly about my post because I haven't the time at the moment to recite sources and links most of the points I made. If my boss knew I spent the 30 minutes as it was putting it together she'd kill me. :scared: ;-)

I will try in the next few days to come up with solid sources for my points - it might make an interesting GD discussion.

But for the main point - that many here cheer for some drop in the market to make * look bad. Yes, that's a popular sentiment. My only defense is to look to the long term, as most serious investment advisors always say. If in the short term (18 months) the market tanks and * is thrown out of office, then the new administration would have the chance to right the mis-guided policies of the current mis-administration and create more economic growth, and thus (hopefully) fuel a mjor Wall Street rally beyond what is possible now.

At least that's the hope of many here. Including me.

BTB, love the moniker. Barker's Imajika is one of my favorite books.
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. Side point on that main point
I, for one, do not want to see the market go down, even if it would take the Boy Emperor with it.

We lost more than half of the value of the stock-invested retirement fund we had when the bear market closed up shop. I don't want to see that happen again; to us, or to anybody.

I do not trust the traders who rated Enron as a "buy" right up til it imploded, I do not trust the regulators who turn a blind eye to fuzzy math and I do NOT believe in mortgaging my future grandkids' incomes so Haliburton can add another jet to the corporate fleet. I am a pessimist on the market because the folks who say it's all hunky-dorry have lied before.
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #28
32. Go to this website for some answers
Edited on Thu Sep-18-03 02:11 PM by Maeve
http://www.financialsense.com/index.html
Particularly, read "The OK (but fictional) Economy", "the C.R.A.P. Report"(under Market Wrap-Up) and anything under the Storm Report. Also, try some contrarian economists and remember the folks who are saying "improvement in the 4th quarter" have said that for three years and been 100% WRONG so far. As I've said, I could be wrong, but I want to see us make it thru October before I'll even look at recipes for crow.

I can't begin to tell you how much I disagree with your understanding of the Reagan economy(but I will note the information boom began on his watch and the skewed the whole picture) and how disasterous the run-up of the deficit can be for the future. I am also convinced that we are still in a bear market and what we're seeing now is a bear-market rally--Japan has had several in the 12 years they have been suffering financially.
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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 01:52 PM
Response to Original message
30. A "bullish bias" indeed - 2:50 numbers
What goes up keeps going up, although slowly.

Dow 9,643.34 +97.69 (+1.02%)
Nasdaq 1,904.13 +21.03 (+1.12%)
S&P 500 1,038.24 +12.26 (+1.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.193% +0.002

Headline quote courtesy Yahoo Finance:
"2:30PM: A bullish bias continues to hold in stocks as the session begins to near the close... Today's news items have been light, and thus the push behind the up action has not been event-related, but rather, exuberance behind the continued strength of the rally - as evidenced by the Nasdaq's ascent to a new 52-week high... One relevant development, however, that has just crossed the news wires is the release of the August FOMC minutes..."

Yahoo Finance Updates
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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 02:29 PM
Response to Original message
34. 3:28 - and with a half an hour to go, we see...

...still slowly rising for the afternoon.

Dow 9,657.31 +111.66 (+1.17%)
Nasdaq 1,908.24 +25.14 (+1.34%)
S&P 500 1,039.52 +13.54 (+1.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.184% -0.007
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. Final for the day
Dow 9,659.13 +113.48 (+1.19%)
Nasdaq 1,909.55 +26.45 (+1.40%)
S&P 500 1,039.58 +13.61 (+1.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.184% -0.007
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mrsteve Donating Member (713 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-03 03:16 PM
Response to Original message
38. And at the close - everyone is still smiling big time
Dow 9,659.13 +113.48 (+1.19%)
Nasdaq 1,909.55 +26.45 (+1.40%)
S&P 500 1,039.58 +13.61 (+1.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.184% -0.007

Yahoo 3:30 analysis:

"3:30PM: In a late-day push, buyers pick up the pace of their already considerable efforts and send the indices to another set of new highs... At this point, only 4 out of the 30 Dow components are showing losses, the largest laggard being DuPont (DD 41.98 -0.49)... A JP Morgan downgrade of the stock - to Neutral from Overweight following the chemical company's lowered FY03 (Dec) guidance yesterday - has acted as a drag on shares... Elsewhere, the Nasdaq has stolen the lead from the S&P 500 thanks to continued strength in tech..."
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