Oil prices could hit 80 dollars in next two years: OPEC

[Karmadillo]

Relax, my fellow lobsters. The water is NOT, I repeat, NOT becoming warmer. Have no fear. Continue swimming as usual and do NOT climb out of the pot. That would be just crazy.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050303/bs_afp/opecoilprice_050303134221

KUWAIT CITY (AFP) - Prices of crude oil could surge to as high as 80 dollars a barrel within the next two years but such a level would not last long, OPEC (news - web sites)'s acting secretary general was quoted as saying.

"I can affirm that the price of a barrel of crude oil rising to 80 dollars in the near future is a weak possibility," Adnan Shehab-Eldin told Kuwait's Al-Qabas newspaper.

"But I cannot rule out (the possibility) of oil prices rising to 80 dollars a barrel within the next two years," he said on Thursday.

"If the oil price rises to this level for one reason or another -- for example, interruption of supplies from a producing nation by one to two million barrels a day -- it is not expected to continue for long," he said.

more...

[LynnTheDem]

1. Hundreds of thousands have paid for it with their lives; the least we can

do is pay for it through our teeth financially.

[Ready4Change]

2. Weren't they just claiming a drop in demand for oil?

The writing is on the wall.

[Demeter]

31. It's Speculators

They run up the price, gouge the consumers, crash the economy and count their billions.

[tanyev]

3. How much will it cost to fill up the tank of a Hummer then?

I might see quite a few beached on the side of the road here in Plano, TX. :D

[amber dog democrat]

5. I am thinking they would make good stage coaches

or ox carts if sufficiently modified. Need to start raising dray horses and oxen.

[cliss]

21. LOL

I'm trying to visualize this....on our main street. Here comes a tank-looking vehicle, pulled by 2 horses.

[KansDem]

27. Clydesdales, no doubt...

[Warpy]

14. A lot of those SUVs

will be sitting in the driveway. Maybe they can be filled with dirt and used as greenhouses in the winter.

Those heaps of masonry out in the exurbs are going to look a whole lot less attractive when gas is ten bucks a gallon even if the residents have gotten smart and gotten little econoboxes for that 60 mile slog into the city every day. Those are the people who will be hurt, the ones who bought houses out in the boonies so they could afford those granite counters in the kitchen and a swing set out back.

[cthrumatrix]

4. It's clear the US policy in the middle east is "oil grab" -- we are LIED

to on a daily basis

Where is our alternative energy plan?

[FloridaPat]

7. I heard Bush & Cheney both have homes with solar electricity. I

guess that will be the extent of our energy plan.

[KayLaw]

22. Crawford Ranch

What a Peaknik's dream that is! It bothers me though, that will all the money and power the Bushes have, they still felt the need to build that place. I mean, if they think THEY won't be able to get electricity. . .

[meow2u3]

23. They'll make alternative energy cost-prohibitive

for everyone else but themselves.

I'm thinking these neocons get their rocks off making people suffer.

[mhr]

6. Peak Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil

One of Bush's energy advisors, Mathew Simmons, did a calculation that suggested a barrel of oil should be priced at $ 250 for conservation to really take hold.

At $ 250 per barrel, we would see the per gallon price at roughly $ 8.00.

[cthrumatrix]

16. that's why Cheney's Energy Meetings are Secret..... we are screwed

[hatrack]

8. How strange that this story didn't break until after the elections

Oh well, probably just a strange coincidence!

[FloridaPat]

45. The price of oil doubled over the last 4 years and no one complained.

I just don't understand the people in this country. You folks up north have got to be freezing you buns off deciding whether to eat or not freeze to death.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. Well, China and India have...

enormously rising demands for oil, and have locked up millions of barrels a day in long term contracts.

Depends entirely on whether pumping can keep up with demand. OPEC usually doesn't want astronomical crude prices because it has historically reduced demand and left them in a lurch when prices eventually fell.

This time might be different, though.

[RobertSeattle]

10. Note the difference...

High Oil Prices when a (D) is President - Outrage!!! - what has this President done to reduce oil prices?!!

High Oil Prices when a (R) is President - Chirp Chrip. Crick Crick.

[cthrumatrix]

17. especially when there is a "oil premium based on war"

[AllegroRondo]

11. That 'weak dollar' policy is coming back to bite us

how long until OPEC starts pricing in Euros?

[Earth_First]

12. It could, but it wont, but if it did, it wont be long...

Why all the backpeddling on statements?

[NickB79]

13. Well, of course it won't last long

I doubt there will be much demand for oil when we're going through a Second Great Depression around the world and hundreds of millions have died from starvation, wars and civil unrest.

[chlamor]

15. Turning Point For Civilization-The Borderline Of The Global Energy System

The truth is: civilization faces a turning point, because we are at the existential borderline of the present global energy system – due to the following reasons:


1) The conventional fossil energies are running out.

2) The nuclear option can only fail. The permanent disposal of more and more radioactive waste for more than 10,000 years is irresponsible

3) The burning of biomass without immediate replanting – as it is the practice in many Third World regions – erodes the soil, initiates desertification

4) The curve of cheap fossil and uranium reserves and therefore its supply possibilities will decrease. On the other hand the curve of energy demand will increase. Only Renewable Energy can avoid a crossing of the two curves of demand and supply in the near decades

5) The future option of atomic fusion is a non-option. No supporter of atomic fusion is asked and speaks about the costs, which will be three to ten times higher then for atomic fission.


6) Because Energy is the basic need of life, it is a short-sighting and dangerous economic rule to leave the basic decisions for future energy supply only to market forces based on actual energy costs.

7) Conventional fossil/atomic energies have multiple negative macroeconomic side-effects - such as the increasing need to protect the globalized power lines against attacks; the high water consumption for mining, extractions and for heating power stations, the currency-costs for importation; and the environmental and health damages.

8) Only with Renewable Energies we can come to real energy efficiency. In the global conventional energy chain from the mines and wells to the customers, sometimes over distances of more than 10 000 miles, there are many energy losses.

9) The global energy demand increases faster than the introduction of Renewable Energies

10) Conventional energies are politically privileged everywhere in the world by large amounts of public money for research and development, by military protection costs, by 300 billion Dollar of subsidies annually and by the energy laws tailored on them.
http://www.energybulletin.net/4549.html

[Massachusetts]

28. Item #8

:thumbsup:

MOST people don't get it yet, and I thought we are a fairly educated society....WRONG!

[Frederik]

29. Not exactly running out

The whole question of "peak oil" is whether we're approaching the point where half the oil under our soil is spent, isn't it? Which would mean that we're running out of the "low hanging fruit", causing oil prices to gradually rise as oil extraction becomes gradually more expensive. Which of course is going to mean trouble if demand continues to rise simultaneously. The graph you present sets the peak at 1979 as if that were a fact, which I don't think many people would agree with.

The oil companies are making record profits these days - they make so much money that they literally can't invest it all and have to give some of it to their shareholders. Business has more or less never been better. So does that indicate rising production costs? Imagine how much money they're going to be making at $80 a barrel...

Peak oil may come sooner than expected but I don't think we're there quite yet. I think some people may want us to think so though.

And "peak natural gas" is going to come many years after peak oil, or so I understand.

"Because Energy is the basic need of life, it is a short-sighting and dangerous economic rule to leave the basic decisions for future energy supply only to market forces based on actual energy costs."

Agreed, but is it? Couldn't it actually be over-priced? Which can only be a good thing if it reduces demand, even though it means that the oil companies and the oil sheiks are making shitloads of money through robber baron tactics.

[reprobate]

30. The sky ISN'T falling. That's an asteroid! Peak oil is now. Reae this:

http://216.187.75.220/newsletter51.pdf

The peak of the curve is 2005. And our govt says there is no way out.

But we know there is: Global thermonueclear war. Thank you Dr. Stangelove.

And there is no one to blame but America and it's leaders.

[Frederik]

46. ASPO is not the government...

They've been predicting peak oil any day now since the 60s.

[NEOBuckeye]

55. Maybe not. But that doesn't mean that they can't be right eventually.

And eventually seems pretty close to now.

[Frederik]

57. Peak oil is coming

But when I listen to all the peak-oilers who suddenly appeared out of nowhere they often speak with the fervour of born-agains who have just learned about the impending rapture. And about how every world event can be explained by peak oil and all the pieces fit nicely into place and so on.

Don't misunderstand, it's a good thing that people are aware of this because it will come. And most people are in denial about this. I just don't see it happening now, or explaining the Iraq war, the high oil price etc.

But I'm not a geologist so I shouldn't pretend to know too much about it.

Seems like a lot of people have been reading Mike Ruppert's book though.

[reprobate]

58. Read Section 502. That 's the govt.

[adigal]

18. Part of me says "fine"

All those Bush voters in the vast suburbs with their McMansions mortgaged to the hilt who love bush will have $1200 per month heating bills. And maybe, finally, this would force us to be serious about alternative sources. For chrissake, they were talking about solar and wind power 30 years ago as "just around the corner." We are heating almost exclusively by wood now and there are great pellet stoves that can fit in small spaces and are not expensive to run.

Get ready.

[beyurslf]

19. Let's all say it together: PEAK OIL

[Kolesar]

20. Hit $90/bbl, inflation adjusted, in 1979 during the Iranian Revolution

The $90 price was very brief though. This $80/bbl prediction will just be an eventual price.

[The_Casual_Observer]

24. Energy predictions usually come true much faster than they predict

I'll bet we see those prices by this summer.

All the good folks who were rooting for the US to "win" in Iraq because it would mean free oil must be getting a little disappointed right about now.

[thecrow]

52. Like the Iraqi will EVER sell us anything again

when we're gone out of their country.

The "Third World" countries will be more able to go on living though,
because they understand how to live with very little and without the benefits of the Industrial Revolution.

We are going to have to take lessons from these people and get more organized on a very local basis if we are to survive:
Grow our own food without pesticides
Travel only locally
Make our own clothes, etc.

We are going to need to go back about 150 years and learn to do with that.

[Kolesar]

25. At what price will the container-ship-conservatives will stop stealing our

...jobs? Get it folks? Walmart is even buying container ships these days to complete their vertically-integrated exploitation of China's low wages and lax environmental laws. This cannot last forever. Those vessels are fueled by oil and if oil's price doubles again, then US and Mexican production will have to become advantageous again. Won't it?

[mahina]

26. Good!

Yay!
Now if we only knew the real cost per barrel including supporting despotic gov'ts around the world. Add in Boy King George's latest adventure too. 2.50 a gallon is a downpayment.

Wake people up. Renewable, sustainable, distributed generation will set us free.

[NJCher]

32. agreed!

I, for one, look forward to it. Aren't we all sick and tired of breathing polluted air? Having our waters polluted with oil spills, wreaking havoc with wildlife?

Are we all not sick and tired of the gross excess exemplified by the SUV, in particular the Expedition, the Yukon and the Escalade?

Sprawl. Pollution of our groundwater with fertilizers, chemicals and pesticides?

All of these evils can be traced to cheap oil.

Asta la vista, baby. Good riddance. Bring on the new age.


Cher

[Lorien]

49. Amen!

but BushCo will just use the high prices of oil as an excuse to drill in every environmentally sensitive area of the US; 90 days of oil for the state of California in 11 years at a cost of BILLIONS to all US taxpayers-what a deal! Who benefits? Why Halliburtan, The Carlyle group, and Bushco's big oil contributors, of course. Like Iraq, it's all about the profit$$. Not a lot of profit if the energy is RENEWABLE, which is the reason why they ignore all the technologies that are already out there, and steadfastly refuse to invest in the development of new technologies. A tiny handful of greedy white men will destroy America and eventually do in the entire human race. :-(

[mahina]

60. Dissent without resistance is consent.

Thoreau said that. It's my tag. Everything you said is right but you have to add one phrase to each sentance- if we let them. Try it out-

"A tiny handful of greedy white men will destroy America and eventually do in the entire human race. :-("...IF WE LET THEM.

"...but BushCo will just use the high prices of oil as an excuse to drill in every environmentally sensitive area of the US"...;IF WE LET THEM.

Organizing your precinct, your friends, your coworkers for 06 starts now or we can count on the shitheads to keep on fighting progress- IF WE LET THEM.

[daleo]

33. In other words, the U.S. dollar will drop by up to half in value.

The price of oil has to go up as the dollar is devalued by Bushenomics.

[TexasLawyer]

34. "Oil prices could hit 80 dollars in next two years: OPEC"

But remember, inflation fears are disappearing. The American economy is strong and vibrant. Keep repeating...


Oil prices could hit 80 dollars in next two years: OPEC

Thu Mar 3, 8:42 AM ET Business - AFP

KUWAIT CITY (AFP) - Prices of crude oil could surge to as high as 80 dollars a barrel within the next two years but such a level would not last long, OPEC (news - web sites)'s acting secretary general was quoted as saying. "I can affirm that the price of a barrel of crude oil rising to 80 dollars in the near future is a weak possibility," Adnan Shehab-Eldin told Kuwait's Al-Qabas newspaper. "But I cannot rule out (the possibility) of oil prices rising to 80 dollars a barrel within the next two years," he said on Thursday.

"If the oil price rises to this level for one reason or another -- for example, interruption of supplies from a producing nation by one to two million barrels a day -- it is not expected to continue for long," he said. Shehab-Eldin said a price rise to between 50-60 dollars a barrel for a period of two years or more will inevitably boost investments to increase supplies and lead to a drop in demand, eventually reducing prices.


World oil prices were mixed Thursday after reaching four-month highs in New York and London the previous day amid a rise in US crude stocks and jitters over increased global demand.
<snip>


It had jumped 1.37 dollars to close at 53.05 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, the highest close since October 26. In London on Thursday, the price of Brent North Sea crude oil for delivery in April gained 18 cents to 51.40 dollars a barrel. Shehab-Eldin said it was in the interest of OPEC and other countries not to see "big and surprising spikes in oil prices, but a gradual balance."

<snip>


http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050303/bs_afp/opecoilprice_050303134221

[mhr]

35. Peak Oil - We Told You So!

eom

[tridim]

36. Yep.. I think it's here now

There's no turning back. I wonder how much plastic will cost in 3 years?

[central scrutinizer]

37. Boy, I am sure glad this administration

has put so much emphasis and funding into alternative energy so we can be a world leader in emerging technology. Think of all the good manufacturing jobs and research jobs as America once again leads the world in innovation. <sarcasm off>

[barb162]

38. hope the Saudi refineries don't get hit by terrorists, that will last

way longer than 1 or 2 months.

[Neverarepublican]

39. Shit has hit the fan.

[TexasLawyer]

41. shit-- bio-mass-- methane--

hey, maybe you're on to something.

[tridim]

42. Well to be fair, last night's Mythbusters demonstrated that methane

doesn't burn so well.. At least when confined within a porta-potty.

[mmonk]

40. OPEC said

back in the fall that $40 was too high. Take it for what it's worth.

[David__77]

43. Interesting...

...looks like OPEC is getting its act together, and the Saudis realize they have more to gain to going along. My only concern is that this doesn't stifle economic development in east Asia and elsewhere.

[Justyce]

44. If "we", and by

"we" I mean bush, have control now of Iraq's oil, shouldn't the prices be going down rather than up??

[Frederik]

47. Sure, but

the people who were supposed to great their invaders with hugs and kisses are instead messing up the plans. The oil stays underground for now. But that's OK, as they've built 40 permanent bases down there.

[Nashyra]

48. As soon as they have the votes for drilling

in the Artic the * will let opec know that they can stabilize the price at $50 a barell, record profits fot the oil companies, most people are so stupid they think that they have been saved and the profits will pay for the drilling. The *'s friends will be laughing all the way to the bank, we are stuck with higher prices and the MSM pretends that the fucker * averts a crisis. Just wait the Artic drilling proposal will take center stage over SS. IMHO

[Frederik]

51. That sounds like

as good a prediction as any. Not many players in this field and they're all buddies and members of the same secret societies and country clubs. They come to agreements.

[Fovea]

54. 50/bbl would work

with a stable dollar. Since we will have to pay to keep the dollar driving oil, it will drop farther, and the price of oil will rise in inflated dollars.

[0007]

50. Not a doubt in my mind!

[Fovea]

53. Call me Cassandra

once again.

$80/bbl is a nice way to make $65.00/bbl look palatable.

[Psephos]

61. I welcome the higher prices

Want to break the stranglehold of oil? At current prices, a lot of oil alternatives suddenly start to look economically viable.

Recall that Kerry long ago proposed a tax to raise oil to (I'm estimating here) about $50/bbl. For the same reason Kerry liked it, I like it - $50 oil means the SUV craze is over, renewable energy looks more doable, there is renewed interest in conservation, and innovation is stimulated (e.g., the graphite "golf ball" nuclear reactors that can't melt down). The reason the Saudis have held prices at moderate levels in the past is because they fear exactly this effect.

Pay now, fly later.

Peace.

[lovuian]

56. Congress needs to get into Conservation!!! Oh their Republicans

thats right get rid of Mass transit

and keep business as usual!!!

The day of the gas guzzlers are gone!!!

[NeoConsSuck]

59. Well, it's not like American oil companies are gouging..

[clem_c_rock]

62. The PNAC forsaw all this, purpetual war is their answer

They saw the economic crisis coming, they saw peak oil hitting.

Instead of addressing these crisis in a rational manner (developing alternative fuels, addressing our 2 deficits), they chose to pull steal 2 elections, pull off 911, start 2 wars in 2 years and we're about to engage in either a war w/ Iran or Syria (God knows w/ what $$ and manpower - wait forgot about the impending draft). All to control the middle east (in turn the world) economically and militarily.

Folks, watch how much changes in the next year. It's going to get rough.

[Roland99]

63. Yikes!