STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY SEPT 25....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday September 25, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 487
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 311
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 286 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 344 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 186
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 670
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 24, 2003

Dow... 9,425.51 -150.53 (-1.57%)
Nasdaq... 1,843.70 -58.02 (-3.05%)
S&P 500.... 1,009.38 -19.65 (-1.91%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.14% -0.08 (-1.87%)
Gold future... 388.40 +1.30 (+0.34%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[JNelson6563]

1. Good Morning Marketeers!

Hey Ozy! Great toon! hahaha Love it!!! I shake my head at this quagmire and have begun to suspect that, just like Team Bush did selective reading of intelligence reports, Rove did selective reading when he studied his idol, Machiavelli. Ol' Nic was real thorough when advising not only how to conquer a nation but how to hold it peacefully.

Onto the Street! So lots of numbers out this morn. I see the futures are up modestly so that means folks are real hopeful that all the #'s due out will be good or that, just like yesterday, rosey futures mean nothing. After 8:30 we'll know more. Any bets on the revisions of last week's UE #'s? I'm going with an upward revision of at leat 5,000--you know me, Miss Play-it-safe. haha

IMO the big event today (at least the biggest scheduled event) is the debate. As you all probably know it will be focusing on the economy. Since the red ink Republicans are so dismal in this area our candidates will shine even brighter. It will be interesting too in that it's the first where Clark will participate as well.

Fasten those seat belts! Could be a hell of a ride today!

Julie

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning all. Here's the WrapUp by Mike Hartman.

Politics, Money & Oil

The biggest news item of the day was the increase in crude oil prices after OPEC agreed to reduce output by 3.5% to support higher prices. Oil traders were caught off guard as they expected OPEC to leave their production quotas unchanged. The surprise announcement caused crude to jump $1.09 per barrel to close at $28.22, a one-day gain of 4%. Some commentators have suggested the spike in oil prices are to blame for the pummeling the stock market took today, but I rather suspect the sell-off is more closely related to the weakness of the U.S. dollar. At the very least, one would expect foreign selling of U.S. dollar denominated assets, since any future stock market gains would be offset by currency exchange rate losses. The incentive for foreign investment in the U.S. markets has clearly diminished since the meeting of the G-7 industrialized nations over the weekend.

Arm Wrestling in the Oil Pits

Oil won’t come down much in price here in the U.S. as long as the dollar continues to weaken. If the price of oil in U.S. dollars declines and the dollar declines against foreign currencies, the price of crude would drop dramatically in currencies that strengthen against the dollar. Yesterday on CNBC and in a Bloomberg article I read that officials in the U.S. are projecting an average oil price of around $25 per barrel for all of 2004. When OPEC got together, they basically said, “We don’t think so!!! If you think you are going to get our oil for $25 per barrel, we will just cut production to keep the price higher.”

I’ll now take you down one of the side streets in the oil arena. It has been said that Saddam Hussein lied about having weapons of mass destruction to appear more powerful than he really was and also lied about his oil reserves to appear wealthier than he really was. There are rumors that Iraq does not have the oil reserves that they claimed and the Bush administration is scrambling to secure long term oil contracts to make up for what we will not get out of Iraq.

What is Money?

It sounds like an easy question, but is it? To qualify as money, there are many characteristics and qualities that need to be met, but the two biggest criteria for money are simple. First we expect to use money as a “medium of exchange” and secondly, we expect money to be a “reliable store of value.” The U.S. dollar has worked well as a vehicle with which to conduct trade, but it has been horrible as a store of value. If you work hard today and put some of your money into savings to be used at a future time, you would hope that the dollar you put into the bank will have the same or greater value when you decide to take it out and spend it. Since our dollar was created it has lost more than 95% of its value and our leaders are working overtime to devalue it even more.

much more good stuff that I could not post here.

[Maeve]

3. And for a look at the economic calendar

Durable Orders and Initial Unemployment Claims start us off at 8:30 EDT--the general market expects Durables to fall to .6% (last reading 1%), while Breifing.com is calling for a rise to 1.5%. Initial Claims were 399K last week (we'll see where they are revised to today) and expected to rise to 400-410K.

We'll also get New and Existing Home Sales at 10:00 EDT--both are expected to dip.

Info taken from the chart at http://financial.washingtonpost.com/wpost/briefing.asp?mode=MARKCAL&dispnav=business

Caffeine, anyone?

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning Maeve and Julie.

So it looks like the figures you describe here are all over the place. I say, there's nothing like being everywhere and nowhere when it comes to speculative financial fugures!

Oh dear! I am absolutely shocked (hear me?) that unemployment figures will be revised from last week. When do they stop pretending that our economic situation is "recovering"?

[ozymandius]

4. Is The Dollar Toast?

by Alex Wallenwein, Editor & Publisher, The Euro vs. Dollar Currency War Monitor September 25, 2003

Yes.

The only remaining question is: how dark would you like it?

The Europeans would like it to be a light, golden crisp. The more fanatical of our Arab and Muslim friends probably want it to be incinerated. The Chinese would likely prefer it pretty dark, but with visible, charred remains, so they can still show it off - like a trophy.

<cut>
The big question is: where and when will this stop?

Once this process is in motion, a weakening dollar will lower incentives for international investors to park their funds in dollar-denominated assets. Decreased foreign-asset inflows, or downright outflows, would further weaken the dollar, which will in turn weaken already shaken international confidence in the dollar, etc., etc., - a classical vicious cycle.

more...like Snow's pretense that he wanted a weak dollar all along

[JNelson6563]

7. and if it goes low enough

the massive foriegn holdings in Treasuries could be withdrawn leaving us.....where? Oh yeah, in the depths of despair.

Oy!

Julie

[ClintonTyree]

8. Dumb question...............

but where would the smart money go to get a reasonable return (other than the market). I've got money market funds that are going absolutely nowhere? I'm a financial neophyte, I've no clue what makes the economy tick. Any help?

[JNelson6563]

11. gold looks safe

in an unsteady world but remember, I am no professional. That's what I'm looking at. Also, military and energy sectors will make out like bandits IMO.

Julie

[Andy_Stephenson]

23. buy GOLD

it is in a bull market!

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

and it would seem that the shiny veneer has peeled away

http://images.google.com/images?q=tbn:v8ePtp9TQRwC:cellar.orac.nl/photo/paint.jpeg
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 93.67 Change -0.03 (-0.03%)

[jamesinca]

6. Good morning all

I actually have something financial to contribute today.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Changes Discussed in Accounting for Pension Fund Obligations
By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH

Published: September 25, 2003


The board that writes accounting rules for American business discussed changes yesterday that could wipe out much of the financial incentive for companies to convert to cash-balance pension plans.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board said it was beginning a study of the way many companies with cash-balance pensions measure the benefits they will eventually have to pay their employees. Actuaries said the board's approach could ultimately force these companies to report a much larger obligation than they now do.

<SNIP>


The board's new project will not address employees' concerns about their benefits or resolve long-running arguments about the fairness and legality of cash-balance conversions. But it could add weight to employees' complaints that companies and their actuaries have been able to exploit gray areas in pension accounting rules to reap financial benefits by converting to a type of plan that can hurt older workers.

<SNIP>

Industry groups are expected to lobby against the rule when a draft is introduced for public comment in the coming months. Mr. Lofgren predicted that actuaries would also rush to amend their clients' cash-balance plans in ways that would permit them to continue using the existing accounting treatment.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/25/business/25PENS.html?th

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For a $1.75 do you think this will have much of an impact on todays markets

[JNelson6563]

13. In a word: no

The Street will not pay attention to this. They pay little attention to such things. Bad news is often shoved under the couch lest folks see it, refrain from investing and brokers make no $$.

It's the American way.

Julie

[Maeve]

10. Drop in durable goods orders

Durables orders post surprise drop
Orders for goods intended to last three years or more fall 0.9% vs. forecast for gain of 0.6%.
September 25, 2003: 8:40 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods took a surprise tumble last month as demand for automobiles dropped sharply, according to a government report Thursday.

Orders for durable goods, items intended to last three years or more, decreased 0.9 percent in August, the Commerce Department said. It was the first decline since April and bucked expectations on Wall Street for a 0.6 percent rise.
<more>

[jamesinca]

15. People must have spent those refund checks

I really don't get it. I honestly feel I could do a better job than these people and I don't know anything about the economy. How can they have all that edumacation and still miss it by so much so many times. This has been going on for a small eternity. Here is a specific example, not related to the economy. The NY Times Jan 20, 1966. Front page news. The experts say that the war in Vietnam will be over by the end of the year. Just a rant I had to let out.

[JNelson6563]

17. James sometimes I think

that a little common sense and foresight can be alot more valuable than fancy-schmanzy edumacation. That is why you could undoubtedly do a better job than Team Bush. Plus your not a greedy bastard willing to loot the nation for yourself and your rich pals.

JamesinCa for Prez!

:hi:

Julie

[jamesinca]

19. Thanks for the support

I think I am to the left of Kucinich but I am throwing my energy towards Dean and I will stick with that for this election cycle.

[sandnsea]

29. August - bad in travel too

I noticed a dip and was wondering if it was just me. I think the war and the gas prices caused a collective 'pause' in August. It's a little better in September, but not much. With gold going up, it seems we're in for a scary inflation or deflation. Inflation doesn't seem too likely now does it?

[Maeve]

12. Initial Claims drop

Weekly jobless claims fall by 19,000 to 381,000
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of jobless workers seeking unemployment insurance for the first time fell 19,000 to 381,000 in the week ended Sept. 20, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. The average number of workers filing initial claims over the past four weeks fell a slight 4,000 to 407,000. A Labor Department spokesman said the decline in claims was exaggerated because many job seekers did not file during Hurricane Isabel, which disrupted the East Coast last week. As many as 10,000 additional workers might have filed claims if not for the storm, the spokesman said. Also, the insured unemployment rate remained at 2.9 percent in the week ended Sept. 13

emphasis added

[JNelson6563]

14. Did anyone catch the revision

of last week's #'s?

Julie

[phillybri]

16. Last week's number revised UP to 400,000...

Try not to act surprised....

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Sept. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 381,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 400,000. The 4-week moving average was 407,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 411,000.

[UpInArms]

18. you mean that convenient little

revision?

where they posted 399K and then quietly revised it to 400K?

yeah, I saw it - wonder what next week's numbers will show the true number for this week will be...

[Maeve]

20. I will put on my seer hat and predict...

This week's figure will be revised upward, so the jump in NEXT week's figures won't look quite so bad!

[Maeve]

21. 9:46 and the market is mostly down

Dow 9,409.86 -15.65 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,841.01 -2.69 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,009.50 +0.12 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.135% +0.000

[ozymandius]

22. 10:13 - Dow down more. Others just barely treading water.

DJIA 9,408.31 -17.20 (-0.18%
NASDAQ 1,844.95 1.25 (0.07%)
S&P 500 1,010.56 1.18 (0.12%)

[UpInArms]

25. sinking fast

Dow 9,371.47 -54.04 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 1,830.31 -13.39 (-0.73%)
S&P 500 1,006.09 -3.29 (-0.33%)

[ozymandius]

24. blood flowing - Dow hemmorages first

DJIA 9,380.45 -45.06 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ 1,833.69 -10.01 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,007.20 -2.18 (-0.22%)

[ozymandius]

26. It makes me wonder.

Do people at the brokerage desks pay attention to this thread? Perhaps this is just a case of self-aggrandisement.

I may stop paying attention to the Reuters and AP speculative blather. They are consistently focused in the market's opening numbers, particularly the first half-hour (doesn't mean squat), without any attention paid to the daily trend. As James and Julie mentioned earlier in the thread - the wildly ranging durable goods figures and cash-balance option news are some indication that reality is lost on these reports. It is all book sense and no horse sense.

[JNelson6563]

27. haha I wish some would jump in

You know who I'd love to join us? The Great Santelli of CNBC. I love that guy. My least favorite reporter-on-the-floor is Bob Pissonme. haha

I thought for a minute after housing #s came in that we'd see some irrational exuberance. Guess not.

10:34


Dow 9,370.84 -54.67 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,829.78 -13.92 (-0.76%)
S&P 500 1,006.15 -3.23 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.106% -0.029


I'm off to put some $$ into the economy for man-child's upcoming birthday. :-)

Will check back soon, curious as to what I'll find...

Julie

[Shadoobie]

35. How much did you spend?

Damn, Julie, what did you buy? It looks like the sharp turnaround in the markets occurred right after you posted this. :yourock:

Greg

[jamesinca]

28. Oh this is going to be a wild one today

I may just go to bed and look later at the close, save a lot of acid reflux and heart burn. The numbers are climbing back up the table leg almost as fast as they fell down from the table top. Somebody take the bungee jumping equipment away from these guys.

[jamesinca]

30. More jobless recovery news

Tyson Foods will cut up to 600 jobs in Arkansas
FROM NEWS SERVICES
updated: 09/24/2003 08:33 PM


Tyson Foods Inc. of Springdale, Ark., the world's largest meat company, said Wednesday that it will cut up to 600 jobs, or about a third of the work force, at its chicken-processing plant in Hope, Ark.

Between 500 and 600 workers will lose their jobs starting Oct. 4, the company said.

Tyson Foods will have other companies do some of the labor-intensive operations that are now performed by workers at the plant in Hope.

Besides processing chicken, the plant in Hope, with 1,650 employees, handles breading, battering and cooking chicken. Tyson Foods has about 120,000 employees in the United States and Mexico.

Sabre Holdings Corp. of Southlake, Texas, which owns Internet travel site Travelocity.com, will cut an undisclosed number of jobs in the fourth quarter because it expects lower earnings. Sabre told employees of its plans Wednesday. The company has 6,500 employees.


http://www.stltoday.com

[ozymandius]

31. Someone plugged the dam.

12:06
DJIA 9,430.70 5.19 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 1,850.65 6.95 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,013.27 3.89 (0.39%)

[ozymandius]

32. You folks have a good afternoon.

I must go away for a few hours. Work and such.

[Coventina]

33. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hi everyone!

Today's reading had no changing lines. The only hexagram shown is BEFORE THE END, which we also saw on Monday. I think Ching is trying to say something. Here is a quote, "You must prepare yourself with wariness and reserve. The coming situation will be strange to you in every way, unlike any that you have experienced."

I am going to predict a down day. I have the feeling things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

[mrsteve]

34. Quick numbers - gotta run on a bouncy day

Dow 9,439.19 +13.68 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,850.28 +6.58 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,013.87 +4.49 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.137% +0.002

I have to take what's left of my team (after layoffs) out out lunch, so no more lunch posts today. Will check in later.

[Maeve]

36. 1:24 and drifting back down

Dow 9,417.64 -7.87 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,843.89 +0.19 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,011.48 +2.10 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.107% -0.028

[Maeve]

37. 1:55 and fading further

Dow 9,393.37 -32.14 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,837.98 -5.72 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,009.29 -0.09 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.128% -0.007

[Maeve]

38. 2:26 and not a happy day on Wall Street

Unless you're a bear...

Dow 9,388.59 -36.92 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,835.93 -7.77 (-0.42%)
S&P 500 1,008.36 -1.01 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.115% -0.020

[mrsteve]

39. 2:55 numbers - what did I miss?

Yikes - looks like a roller coaster today.

Dow 9,417.23 -8.28 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,847.18 +3.48 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,012.21 +2.84 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.110% -0.025

Yahoo Fi blather:
"2:30PM: A listless session of trade with the indices still stuck in negative territory... The mid-afternoon price action has mirrored today's activity in the overseas markets, where most Asian (Tokyo's Nikkei -1.8%) and European (London's FTSE - 0.8%) indices finished lower for the day... With the exception of semiconductor and retail, just about every industry group has traded lower in an extension of the indices' recent weakness... One of the worst performing groups is the restaurant sector..."

(on edit - damn these time zonz!!)

[mrsteve]

40. 3:45 - day's almost done and down a chunk

Dow 9,368.94 -56.57 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 1,830.59 -13.11 (-0.71%)
S&P 500 1,006.81 -2.57 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.102% -0.033

Hey! Where's the PPT when you need them?

Yahoo Finance at 3:30 said:
"3:30PM: The languid market heads into the final half hour of regular session of trading just about the same way it started - relatively unchanged... The indices' have not been able to shake the same concerns that sent them spiraling lower yesterday - namely, concerns surrounding the lofty P/E multiples of most stocks... As a result, sellers have taken most industry groups lower in an attempt to consolidate some of the market's considerable gains for the year... Tomorrow, the market will have several economic reports from which to take its cue from...
The final Q2 GDP figure and the revised September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number will be released, and for the market and Briefing.com's expectations for these reports, be sure to visit the Economic Calendar..."

[radfringe]

41. which way did they go???

up and dowwwwnnnn.... Opec cutting oil production sent the lemmings scurrying to the sell sell sell window yesterday

UN pull out of Iraq, economic figures have the lemmings wandering around today trying to figure out if they should climb the cliff or jump off

Whistleass's numbers are dropping faster than the DOW, could it mean that 'muricans are waking up?

Time for Rove to rev up the terra-machine, this time headed for Iran

Meanwhile, back at the ranch - anyone remember the whistleass saying that the last taxcut would produce 1,000,000 jobs? Do you see any new jobs created? ooops, time to divert attention away from that little "mis-speak" and rattle some sabers, beat them war drums

Long view from the Magic 8-ball - dismal outlook for remainder of this quarter and the next. Oil prices are going to put a crimp in people's pocketbook - especially since most of the northeast is predicted to have a hard winter.

They may be a slight uptick in the spring, but the main worry is going to be the JOB-LOSS "recovery".

The House (at this moment)is debating extending unemployment benefits - this will probably be wrangled around until the holidays, then it will be too little too late for alot of people. Watch for the "people on unemployment are too lazy to find a job" type comments from the compassionate conservatives on the right.

by Summer the campaigns will be in full swing, the whistleass will make some more empty promises about taxcuts creating jobs, Iraq will still be bogged down, and there will be several terra-lerts to divert attention from the economy.

Don't look for any real recovery to happen until the whistleass is back on a train for Crawford - PERMANENTLY

[Maeve]

42. OUCH!!!! That stings!

Dow 9,343.75 -81.76 (-0.87%)
Nasdaq 1,817.20 -26.50 (-1.44%)
S&P 500 1,003.27 -6.10 (-0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.102% -0.033

[reprobate]

43. Something new. A multi-day pie hole effect.

[Maeve]

44. If I wanted to be crude, I'd note that Dubya

Makes about as much sense whichever end he's blowing hot air from!:evilgrin:

[radfringe]

45. you got that right Maeve

he's not a whistleass for nothing, ya know
:evilgrin: