STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 5 April

[ozymandius]

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 290 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 113 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 169 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1227
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 4, 2005

Dow... 10,421.14 +16.84 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq... 1,991.07 +6.26 (+0.32%)
S&P 500... 1,176.12 +3.20 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.46% +0.01 (+0.11%)
Gold future... 426.00 -2.30 (-0.54%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[Tace]

1. Ozy, That Oil Chart Is A Missing Piece Of The Economic Puzzle

Thnx for adding, and thanks to the poster who offered it up. Cheers

[Tace]

2. Dollar Gains to Five Month-High Against Yen, Rises Versus Euro

April 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar climbed to a five-month high against the yen and the strongest in seven weeks versus the euro as economic growth in Japan and Europe falters.

``What has surprised the market this year is the fact that Japanese growth has been so weak and we've also seen downward growth revisions from Europe,'' said Shahab Jalinoos, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in London. ``The dollar has shown a sustained ability to bounce back.''

Japan's currency dropped as a government report showed household spending fell in February, adding to evidence the Japanese economy is struggling to sustain a recovery from recession. The euro declined as a report showed growth in euro- region service industries stagnated in March, a day after the European Commission cut its forecast for growth in 2005.

The dollar gained to 108.63 yen at 11:31 a.m. in London, from 108.30 late yesterday in New York, after reaching 108.89, the strongest since Oct. 19, according to electronic foreign- exchange dealing system EBS. Against the euro, it advanced to $1.2818, from $1.2847, after rising as high as $1.2807. The U.S. currency fell for three straight years through 2004.

(more)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=amv6NdO5Xn0A&refer=home

[4dsc]

4. this should be interesting..

from your article..

Greenspan Speech

Greenspan will speak on energy via satellite to a petrochemical industry group in San Antonio at 12:50 p.m. local time. Crude oil yesterday rose to a record high of $58.28 a barrel. An April 1 Institute for Supply Management report showed prices paid by U.S. manufacturers jumped last month.

[UpInArms]

11. Dollar stronger ahead of Greenspan

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.3613349306-833881476&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar was higher against the euro and yen Tuesday, ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chief Alan Greenspan on energy. Investors will scrutinize his remarks to see if he expresses concern about the rising oil price. In recent sessions the dollar has drawn support from speculation that a growing risk of inflation will prompt the Fed to adopt a more aggressive rate hikes policy. The euro was quoted at $1.2848, down 0.02%, after touching an intraday low of $1.2799. The dollar stood at 108.35 yen, up 0.3%.

[UpInArms]

58. Meanspin spewing

1:48pm 04/05/05 GREENSPAN GIVES NO GUESS AT OIL IMPACT ON ECONOMY

1:48pm 04/05/05 GREENSPAN: CRUDE INVENTORIES COULD EASE PRICE FRENZY

1:48pm 04/05/05 GREENSPAN SEES CRUDE INVENTORY BUILDING

[54anickel]

59. Hahaha - "I see 4 lights, FOUR LIGHTS!!!"

[UpInArms]

61. "and I hear a train whistle"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.5774395718-833890030&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fed chief Alan Greenspan said the current spike in oil prices may not be long-lived. Greenspan noted that futures prices for delivery of oil for summer delivery exceed spot prices. "That will likely support increased inventories of crude oil. If sustained, these market technicals could encourage enough of an inventory buffer to damp the current price frenzy," Greenspan said in a speech prepared for delivery Tuesday for the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association. Greenspan did not hazard a guess at the impact of current high oil prices on the U.S. economy, or discuss the potential impact on inflation. Some economists believe the higher energy prices will lead to slower economic growth in the second quarter.

"those lights in the tunnel? Are they heading for us?" :eyes:

[54anickel]

74. Lil diddy for you....

I hear the train a comin'
it's rolling round the bend
Greenspin ain't seen inflation since I don't know when,
He's stuck in Fed-speak lying, and time keeps draggin' on
but that train keeps a rollin' on down to stag-fla-tion..
When he was just a baby his mama told him, "Son,
always be a good boy, don't tempt on de-pres-sions.
But he sold his soul to Repukes, and all he does is lie.
Now every time I hear that bastard, I hang my head and cry..

I bet there's rich folks eating in a fancy dining car
they're probably drinkin' champagne and smoking big cigars.
Well I know he saw it coming, we'll never be debt-free
but those rich folk got my money,
and that's what tortures me...

[UpInArms]

75. wish that were playing on the Air America!

:woohoo: :applause: :woohoo:

[amandabeech]

87. And just where does he think all this new oil will be pumped?

And just where does he think that it will be refined?

If any additional barrels per day materialize, they're likely to be Saudi heavy, which is high-sulfur and requires special refineries to turn into gasoline and diesel. I believe that all refineries in the world which can process heavy, high-sulfur black goo are running at capacity.

I guess Lil'Allen thinks that we will out-bid the rest of the world for a few more million barrels a day to add to the 21,000,000 that we already use 24/7/365, thus shifting any shortage to those who are least able to pay for it. What a fool and a meany.

[Mnemosyne]

3. Morning oz, great toon! Thanks!

Wait till they hire those greeters at Wallyworld! It'll be the only place that will give anyone over 60 a job ( and that's just for the dead peasant insurance!).

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 85.06 Change +0.28 (+0.33%)

Euro and Yen - Turns All Around?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=598&Itemid=39

Yet another night of quiet trading as the majors continue to give way against the assault of the dollar bulls.For once the data in the Euro-zone did not disappoint but simply met expectations as March Services PMI survey reported at 53 vs. expectations of 53 - still above the expansionary 50 level. Amongst the big three only France produced worse results than last month while Italy and Germany showed some improvement. In all surveys the business expectations component improved markedly, which could indicate a slight pick up in economic activity going forward. With a lean calendar out of the US for rest of the week and little prospect of any monetary policy change from Thursday's ECB rate announcement, this type of grinding, meandering price action in the EUR/USD may continue a while longer. The dollar will gain further strength only if the market becomes convinced that the Fed is ready for a dramatic 50bp increase. Set against a disappointing NFP result and persistently higher oil prices, we believe the odds for such a move are slim at best. While the euro hardly has the momentum to stage a strong counter rally, it may muster a small retracement if the economic data does not generate any more negative surprises.

Meanwhile disappointment remains the order of the day for the yen where Household Spending declined -3.7% vs. -3.2% projected on a year over year basis. We continue to believe that Japan has few economic problems that oil below $50/bbl could not solve, yet the stickiness of crude prices has catapulted USD/JPY to a 5 month high. Nevertheless, the latest proprietary capital inflow data from Bank of New York shows a marked divergence between ever rising inflows into Japanese equities and the ever declining yen exchange rate. It is often these type of divergences that presage a turn in the FX market and USD/JPY may be setting itself up for just such a move.

...more...

No Reports today.

Great 'toon, Ozy! :applause:

[UpInArms]

77. dollar didn't like the Meanspin spews

Last trade 84.65 Change -0.13 (-0.15%)

Settle 84.78 Settle Time 23:36

Open 84.94 Previous Close 84.78

High 85.12 Low 84.63

Last tick: 2005-04-05 14:59:22 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

78. Awww, no rate hike promise for you today! Silly traders...n/t

[UpInArms]

79. Dollar Falls From 7-Week High Versus Euro; Gains Seen `Limited'

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=awW2lfpoEoIU&refer=japan

April 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell from close to a seven- week high versus the euro and a five-month high against the yen as some investors speculated the U.S. currency's advance would stall.

The dollar is up 2.7 percent against the euro and 3.4 percent versus the yen since the Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs on March 22 and said inflation pressures are building. Some investors say they doubt the Fed will step up the pace of interest rate increases, after seven straight boosts of a quarter percentage point.

``We don't see the Fed moving any more aggressively than they've stated; dollar strength is somewhat limited'' from here, said David Durrant, investment strategist at Julius Baer Investment Management, with $22 billion. ``They're talking about inflation a lot. We're just not really seeing it show up.''

The dollar weakened to $1.2866 per euro at 3 p.m. in New York, according to electronic currency dealing system EBS. It fell after reaching $1.28, its strongest since Feb. 10. The dollar fell to 108.13 yen from 108.30, after reaching 108.89 earlier today, the strongest since Oct. 19. The euro will rebound above $1.30 within a couple of weeks, said Durrant.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. The sound of the other shoe dropping

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B92ADA655%2DC8B0%2D4159%2DB371%2D3568885DE943%7D&siteid=mktw

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Is recent weakness in Wal-Mart's stock an omen that this consumer-led recovery is running out of steam?

This question takes on urgent significance given the crucial role the consumer plays in the U.S. economy. Up until now, of course, the consumer has continued to spend, spend, spend -- even if that has meant going dangerously into debt. By so doing, he or she has enabled the economy to dodge a barrage of otherwise fatal bullets.

But if the consumer were showing no signs of easing up on this years-long spending spree, presumably one of the biggest beneficiaries would be Wal-Mart (WMT: news, chart, profile) , which is the 800-pound gorilla in the retail sector. And yet, over the past year, Wal-Mart's stock has been a big loser, dropping more than 16 percent. In contrast, the S&P 500 index (SPX: news, chart, profile) has gained a little more than 3 percent over this same period.



Last Friday, Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters wrote that this weakness means that the "U.S. retail public starting to cut back on their spending." Not surprisingly, therefore, Russell is bearish on the U.S. economy in general and the stock market.

<snip>

When it rains, it pours, and Wal-Mart is no exception. As if a slowdown in consumer spending and labor troubles weren't enough of a problem, Richard Young, editor of Intelligence Report, recently had this to say when he removed WMT from his buy list: "I cannot abide going into" Wal-Mart stores.

...more...

[AnneD]

19. heard it yesterday

Cheveron is merging with Unical (?) so look for major layoffs. I suspect more in the airlines as the red ink continues and they get squeezed by oil prices. And to make matters worse, I am sure the airlines will default on their payments to the Retirement Trust. Bush's economy will be the gift that keeps on giving long after he is gone. I am not an economist, just an observant lay person...but I do believe things don't look as rosy as some in this administration would have us believe. Wal-mart is just an outward symptom of a sickly ecomony. We aren't on life support yet but it is getting critical IMHO.

[UpInArms]

42. Chevron may sell Unocal assets

http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/05/news/fortune500/chevron_unocal.reut/

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - ChevronTexaco Corp. may sell Unocal Corp.'s North American onshore fields and Asian power plants for an estimated $2 billion after it closes the purchase of its smaller California rival, a source close to the plan said Tuesday.

ChevronTexaco (down $2.33 to $56.98, Research), the world's fifth-largest oil company, beat out rival bidders such as Italian oil group Eni and snatched the prize at the last minute from state-run China offshore producer CNOOC Ltd., the source said.

ChevronTexaco's main interest is in Unocal's offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico, Indonesia and Thailand, the source said.

"They will be its core assets. Everything else they would consider to sell," the source told Reuters.

ChevronTexaco, which clinched a deal to scoop up Unocal (down $4.75 to $59.60, Research) for about $16.4 billion Monday, had said it expected to raise $2 billion from asset sales after the deal closes but declined to specify what would be shed.

...more...

[AnneD]

86. Randi Rhodes is talking about this now....

She is talking about Karzi and that nifty little pipeline in Afghanistan that they have and how Condi's old company Cheveron getting it now (remember Fahrenheit 911 with the Taliban visiting Sugarland Tx). It just boggles the mind. And I think she is right, someone is playing a game over our heads. We are not invited and are nothing more than pawns to make corps even richer and squeezing the lifeblood out of us.

[loudsue]

45. I guess it doesn't occur to the' powers that be' that Wal-Mart sucks

And people have figured out that they shouldn't be spending their money in such a China-friendly neocon dump. I think the progressives/independents who are boycotting WalMart should be commended for their anti-WalMart campaign, and I think the "analysts" should get their heads out of their rear ends.

Even some of the rednecks in my small town have said lately that they're doing anything they can to avoid going to WalMart.

:kick:

[UpInArms]

51. they're trying to put lipstick on that pig

Wal-Mart holds first-ever media confab
World's largest retailer looks to burnish image

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={8EDCC167-4F7E-434B-BC2F-D2CED743F432}&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Consider that Wal-Mart doesn't even host analyst conference calls during earnings season, preferring instead to record a chat among senior executives that's available through a hard-to-find phone number.

Following a number of well-choreographed public relations events, Tuesday's meeting appears to be another stab at gussying up the company's tarnished image.

First up on the agenda is Chief Executive Lee Scott, who has seemingly come out of the shadows in the last few months. In recent appearances, he has steadfastly defended Wal-Mart's hiring practices, the treatment of its employees and its role in supporting local communities.

The parent of the namesake discount stores and Sam's Club outlets has been under unprecedented scrutiny in the last two years. Still reeling from the biggest civil class-action sex discrimination suit ever filed, Wal-Mart has tangled with lawyers and litigants in courthouses all over the country.

Other issues for Wal-Mart are a mixed bag, ranging from last month's $11 million settlement with the federal government over hiring undocumented workers and health care coverage to local zoning laws.

...more...

[54anickel]

53. Polishin' yet another turd. That polish has 1,001 uses these days.

[UpInArms]

56. Labor slaps Wal-Mart ahead of media fest

http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/04/news/fortune500/walmart_critics/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Labor groups trying not to let Wal-Mart steal the spotlight this week denounced the retailer's business practices Monday, a day before Wal-Mart kicks off a two-day media event at its Arkansas headquarters.

"The company is having a huge impact on our public health system," Georgia state Rep. Nan Grogan Orrock said during a news conference sponsored by the AFL-CIO, the nation's biggest labor group. "There is quite an alarming reaction when taxpayers learn they are footing the health insurance bill for Wal-Mart employees."

Orrock said Wal-Mart's health insurance plans are so expensive or provide such thin coverage that thousands of children in Georgia end up on the state's health insurance plan.

But criticism wasn't limited to just health coverage. Former and current employees attacked the company's wage and promotion system, which they said was discriminatory, and labor activists said the retailer receives more than $1 billion a year in a variety of government subsidies.

'What Wal-Mart does is drive small business out of business," said Marvin McMickle, a reverend and community leader who was active in an anti-Wal-Mart campaign in the Cleveland area. "And they provide relatively low wages with limited benefits."

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. INDUSTRY REPORT: Economy -- Quiet week doesn't bode well for stocks

http://www.freep.com/money/business/irep4e_20050404.htm

Those looking for the market to make a substantial move higher will likely have a very frustrating week ahead.

Chronic fears of inflation -- spurred by record oil prices and reports of higher prices for consumer goods and services -- have sent the major indexes to their lowest points of 2005. And in the week ahead, there is only a handful of earnings reports and a dearth of economic data to give investors guidance.

A lack of news in a skittish market is never good. A best-case scenario would be a flat to slightly higher market as investors shift their portfolios or attempt to find sold-off bargain stocks. But with oil prices well above $57 per barrel, investors may continue last week's sell-off, abandoning stocks for the relative safety of bonds, or even just sitting on their cash.

With the bulk of earnings season just a week away, bad news may also come from corporate America as companies that don't expect to meet Wall Street's earnings expectations revise their forecasts lower to blunt the inevitable hit to their stock prices.

Last week, record oil prices and higher consumer prices in the service sector combined to heighten inflation fears and push stocks mostly lower. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.37 percent and the Nasdaq composite index fell 0.31 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 index posted its first gain in the past four weeks, however, rising 0.13 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. American Greetings to miss expectations

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BCDE52E33%2D1041%2D4FDC%2D9904%2DF6052454081F%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- American Greetings Corp. said Tuesday its quarterly earnings will come in short of analysts' average view as revenue remains flat to slightly ahead of the year-earlier period.

American Greetings (AM: news, chart, profile) , based in Cleveland, forecast earnings from continuing operations for the first quarter ending in May at 25 to 30 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were looking for earnings of 35 cents a share, on average.

By extension, the greeting card and gift wrap giant projected 2006 earnings from continuing operations at $1.46 to $1.51 a share, well below the average view for earnings of $1.83 a share.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. Pfizer profit to fall, come in short of expectations

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.4107297569-833883795&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Pfizer (PFE) said Tuesday fiscal 2005 earnings excluding special items will be about $2 a share, below analysts' average estimate of $2.13 a share, as compiled by Thomson First Call. For the first quarter the pharmaceuticals giant projects adjusted earnings of about 53 cents a share, versus analysts' view of 52 cents a share. On a GAAP basis, full-year EPS is expected at $1.16 and first-quarter EPS is seen at 13 cents. Additionally, the company expects annualized costs savings of $4 billion by 2008, and plans to repatriate $23.3 billion in foreign cash, on which it will pay taxes of $2.2 billion in the first quarter. The Dow component's shares added 3.6%, or 94 cents, to $26.87 in recent trading.

[UpInArms]

38. Pfizer cuts earnings projections

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B499A581D%2DEEE5%2D4136%2D95C0%2D3BD659856AC3%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Pfizer Inc. told analysts meeting in New York Tuesday that it sees earnings for the year coming in below estimates, and said it would move to cut costs by $4 billion a year by 2008.

After calling fiscal 2005 a "transitional" year, the New York company said full-year earnings would come in at about $2 a share. That's below analysts' average estimate of $2.13 a share, according to a poll by Thomson First Call. That will also represent a decrease over fiscal 2004's earnings of $2.12 a share.

<snip>

The company said it will streamline its U.S sales force of 11,000 representatives to further reduce costs, but didn't provide specific information.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. Pfizer unveils four billion cost-cutting plan, boosts R&D spending

http://www.wtnh.com/Global/story.asp?S=3169216&nav=3YeXYIjZ

(New York-AP, Apr. 5, 2005 12:12 PM) _ Pharmaceutical maker Pfizer is predicting layoffs as it plans to cut four billion dollars in expenses, but executives are sending positive signals to the 5,500 workers at the company's research headquarters in Connecticut.

Pfizer executives boosted research and development spending by five percent this year, up to eight billion dollars. That's great news for facilities Groton and New London, Connecticut -- not just because of the added investment but because it indicates that R&D is a top priority.

Chairman and Chief Executive Hank McKinnell won't say where the layoffs are coming or when but he says they'll be primarily in low-value areas of the company. Pfizer is under investor pressure to cut costs and streamline its work force.

...more...

[54anickel]

23. Ethan Allen Cuts Third-Quarter Outlook

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/04/05/ap1925157.html

Furniture maker Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. warned that its third-quarter profit would fall short of Wall Street targets despite estimating sales at the high end of its previous range.

The company said late Tuesday that it expects to report net income of 50 cents per share for the quarter ended March 31, before any potential impact from changing how property leases are recorded in its books. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial are looking for a profit of 54 cents per share.

Sales for the quarter are projected to be about $230 million, at the high end an internal forecast of $225 million to $230 million and above the $227.3 million in sales predicted by Wall Street analysts.

"The March quarter was impacted by a sluggish economy, Easter falling in March as compared to April last year and the implementation of everyday pricing," Farooq Kathwari, chairman and chief executive, said in a statement.

more...

[UpInArms]

25. RSA Security plunges on warning

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5E1E32AE%2D0514%2D4F76%2DA483%2DAD4CF639F936%7D&siteid=mktw

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- RSA Security Inc.'s stock fell as much as 24% Tuesday, skidding to a new 52-week low, after the maker of security software and devices warned that first-quarter results would come up short amid slow sales of its software products.

While the financial outlook clearly disappointed investors, several analysts said the sharp retreat could represent a good chance for longer-term investors to pick up shares of the Bedford, Mass.-based company (RSAS: news, chart, profile) .

In recent trading, RSA shares dropped $3.42, or nearly 22%, to $12.45. At their worst levels for the session, the shares plunged by 24% to $12.06 -- well below a previous 52-week low of $14.51 reached on Aug. 31.

In addition to seasonal weakness, RSA said results would miss estimates because of slower-than-anticipated uptake rates for software products as the quarter ended March 31 drew to a close.

"This slowdown occurred across the company's software product lines in both the Americas and Europe," RSA said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Embarcadero Tech misses Form 10-K deadline; warns on Q1

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.4707304977-833886230&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Embarcadero Technologies (EMBT) slumped more than 3% to $5.28 in late morning action on Tuesday. After Monday's closing bell, the San Francisco provider of data lifecycle management technology products disclosed that it has yet to file its Form 10-K for fiscal 2004 because it's still working to complete its financial statements and correct certain previously disclosed accounting errors. The company said it's now out of compliance with the listing requirements for the Nasdaq Stock Market and that it's at risk of being delisted. The company also said it expects earnings to come in below its previous projection for a profit of 5 cents per share in the first quarter ended March 31 due to a revenue shortfall and higher accounting and compliance expenses.

[UpInArms]

71. S&P 500 profit growth set to cool a bit

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B71EC9D4B%2D34D6%2D4E4A%2D931B%2DF3C39E096988%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Corporate America is expected to post slower earnings growth for the first quarter, the first time since mid-2002 that the rate has fallen under 10%, Standard & Poor's said Tuesday.

At the same time, however, S&P's market analysts projected bullish growth prospects for the stock market this year, citing a rebound in profits in coming months.

"While the earnings growth is slowing relative to the prior three years, the forward growth remains steady and will again produce record earnings for 2005," said Howard Silverblatt, a stock market analyst at S&P, on the cusp of first-quarter earnings season.

In 2005, analysts see 10.8% earnings growth for companies in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) .

<snip>

Rather than recording the broad gains of the past several years, earnings growth likely will fluctuate by sector in 2005, analysts with the firm said. For example, the biggest earnings jump will be in the materials sector, with projected growth of 19.2% for the year.

On the other hand, consumer-discretionary and consumer-staples sectors are forecast to gain 1.5% and 3.4%, respectively.

...more...

[UpInArms]

84. after the bell: BindView cuts Q1 rev est, widens loss est

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/help/default.asp?page=support/help/reprint.asp&dist=reprints&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BindView Corp. (DEV) Tuesday after the bell forecast its first-quarter revenue to be slightly lower than its previous forecast of $16 million. Net loss for the quarter is expected to range between $3.5 million and $3.8 million, or 8 cents a share, compared with its previous loss forecast of $2.4 million, or 5 cents a share.

[UpInArms]

8. Walt Disney World announces management layoffs

http://orlando.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2005/04/04/daily12.html?jst=b_ln_hl

Walt Disney World says it is making "internal organizational changes" this week to streamline its operations.

In a prepared statement, spokeswoman Jacquee Polak says the changes are designed to increase efficiency and reduce layers of decision making.

Affected are approximately 25 management and professional jobs in several areas of the company that Polak says will not impact the experience of Central Florida resorts guests.

Disney says it is providing professional outplacement assistance and severance pay to help the laid-off employees.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Jackson & Associates, Inc. to Launch Symphony™, the First

http://www.kntimes.com/knreleases/fullstory0305-insight-news-status-1-newsID-1368.html

Jackson & Associates, Inc., a provider of legal services and legal process management to the REO industry, today announced that it will replace its OnDemand case management platform with the introduction of Symphony™, the first comprehensive solution for REO legal process management. Currently in the final phase of beta-testing, Symphony™ is the only platform developed exclusively for the effective management and control of all REO-related legal matters.

“The legal matters that arise in the REO industry are complex, and there has been a need for a more cohesive and comprehensive approach to managing the entire process,” said Robert Jackson, President and Senior Managing Attorney. “Symphony™ meets this need head-on. As more firms look to outsource the management of their evictions and related legal work, Symphony™ provides a flexible and feature-rich platform for the management of REO-related legal matters.”

Symphony™ provides REO departments with full management capabilities for evictions, post-foreclosure bankruptcy matters, and litigated matters. It also offers a complete set of enterprise-level resources for broker management, cash-for-keys/cash-for-trash offer management, and attorney/broker grading. A unique approach to linking related records means that multiple units, multiple evictions, bankruptcy proceedings, litigation, cash-for-keys offers, and occupancy statuses are all linked together – like they should be.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Friedman Billings Co-CEO Retires Amid SEC Probe

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/matthewgoldstein/10216034.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

In a surprise move, Friedman Billings Ramsey (FBR:NYSE - commentary - research) announced Monday that Emanuel Friedman will retire in June as co-chairman and co-chief executive of the investment firm he founded.

The Virginia-based company offered no specific reason for Friedman's retirement, which will be effective June 9. Friedman, 58, co-founded the firm, which specializes in real estate investment banking, in 1989 along with Eric Billings and Russell Ramsey.

Friedman's retirement comes as securities regulators are investigating the firm's role as placement agent in a 2001 privately negotiated $12 million stock sale by Compudyne (CDCY:Nasdaq - commentary - research), a Maryland security company. Last November, the firm disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission and the NASD were both investigating the firm's role in finding hedge funds to invest in the deal, which was a kind of financing known on Wall Street as private investment in public equity, or PIPE.

People familiar with the investigation say the regulators are looking into allegations of improper trading in Compudyne shares by some of Friedman Billings' proprietary hedge funds, some of which are managed personally by Friedman and other top officials with the firm.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Regulators to probe finite insurance buyers (AIG again)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2E7939F7%2D3434%2D41AC%2DBAEB%2D25D1CFD18F1D%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Regulators currently probing insurance companies to see if they were improperly helping companies dress up their earnings reports are preparing to shift their focus to those companies' customers, according to a published report.

The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the situation, said regulators are concerned that some of the insurance products are, in effect, loans disguised as insurance. See full story in Wall Street Journal.

<snip>

Insurers buy finite-risk reinsurance to protect themselves against the financial risk of future liabilities. The product has been used legitimately for decades, but now the SEC, Spitzer and other regulators are concerned that some companies have employed them to manipulate their financial statements.

In November 2004, American International Group finalized a $126 million settlement with federal regulators to end investigations into so-called income-smoothing products sold by the world's largest insurer.

That pact covered products that AIG (AIG: news, chart, profile) sold to PNC Financial Services Group (PNC: news, chart, profile) and cell-phone distributor Brightpoint Inc. (CELL: news, chart, profile)

...more...

[UpInArms]

73. AIG execs leave Starr director posts

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={A9AE9C1F-8148-41E3-B7BB-99A215FD58F2}&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Top executives of American International Group relinquished their director positions at two controversial private firms with links to the giant insurer.

Martin Sullivan, AIG's new chief executive, Donald Kanak, the insurer's chief operating officer, and Edmund Tse, senior vice chairman for life insurance, resigned as directors of C.V. Starr, Chris Winans, an AIG spokesman, said Tuesday.

The 3 executives were also ousted as directors of Starr International Co. last week by that firm's shareholders, Winans added.

Other AIG (AIG: news, chart, profile) executives have also ended their director roles at both Starr firms, Winans said. He declined to name these people. According to AIG's latest annual report, 5 AIG directors were also directors of C.V. Starr and Starr International.

<snip>

Starr International was set up more than 30 years ago to provide deferred compensation to AIG's top executives. It holds about 12 percent of AIG shares - its only assets - and is chaired by Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the former CEO of AIG who left the insurer under a regulatory cloud last month.

C.V. Starr, which is also chaired by Greenberg, has provided insurance brokerage and management services to AIG in the past. AIG paid the firm about $173 million for those services in 2003, according to AIG's latest annual report. The firm also owns about 2 percent of AIG shares.

...more...

Lookie Mom! We got caught with our hands in the cookie jar, but now you wouldn't know 'cause we washed 'em!

:puke:

[ozymandius]

14. Good morning everyone. Here's the WrapUp.

WrapUp by Rob Kirby

Faithfully Yours

-cut-

he aspect or definition of faith I would like to discuss at greater length first - is # 1 above, namely, one’s confidence or belief that they’re being fed the truth and how they gauge the trustworthiness of ideas or things that are being put forward to them.

We were fed the latest round of employment numbers on Friday, April 1, 2005 – and as any fool can see, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has seemingly added 179,000 imaginary jobs to their March, 2005 total of 110,000 new jobs created. May the good Lord praise fuzzy math.

-cut-

With that in mind, I would like to reflect on a personal experience I had on a recent Friday morning. My daughter, a grade 12 student, had an economics test in school. She wanted me to help her prepare for the test that day by asking her questions about the material she was going to be tested on. When I asked her what the definition of CPI was she told me,

"It's an index used to measure inflation of consumer prices that always overstates what real inflation is."

I told her that was false and asked her where she learned that. She told me it came straight out of her text book. She explained to me that if asked this question on her test and she answered contrary to this, she would be marked incorrect and penalized.

My daughter is enrolled in the same high school I attended many years ago. I always believed or had faith that she was getting the best education available. Nowhere in the definition of faith, above, do I see the word ‘blind.’ Perhaps we should all take a few minutes out of our busy lives and say a prayer?

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

16. OMG!

that always overstates what real inflation is

If that wasn't so dreadful, I would laugh!

But, instead, I think I will weep. :cry:

To teach a lie and force an incorrect answer is an abomination.

[ozymandius]

15. pre-open blather

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Stage remains set for a higher open amid new M&A activity, as the futures market continues to trade above fair value... Reports suggest that Allied Domecq (AED) is in talks with Pernod Ricard SA about a possible multi-billion takeover that would also involve Fortune Brands (FO)

[UpInArms]

17. 9:43 EST markets are open and blather

Dow 10,445.10 +23.96 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,996.96 +5.89 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,179.91 +3.79 (+0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.460 +0.04 (+0.09%)

NYSE Volume 109,922,000
Nasdaq Volume 118,047,000

9:40AM: Stocks open to the upside amid a decline in oil from record levels... After surging to an all-time high above $58/bbl yesterday, profit taking in crude oil futures ($56.58/bbl -$0.43) has helped underpin a floor of early buying support for equities... The commodity, which should be a focal point for investors throughout the session ahead of a speech by Fed Chairman Greenspan at a petrochemical conference (13:50 ET), has also been under pressure following news of Saudi Aramco's invitation to international oil companies (i.e. CVX, RD) to build a $5 bln joint venture refinery in the region...

(added blather on edit)

[UpInArms]

18. privatizing US Reserves' training to CACI

CACI Int'l gets $27M Army pact for training services

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.3760168171-833882152&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- CACI International (CAI) said Tuesday it has received a prime contract worth $27 million to support battle command training for U.S. Army Reserve units. The stock closed Monday at $55.35, up 1 percent.

[54anickel]

21. Higher fuel one factor in lowering PEs (Interesting take)

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=41982

An important opinion hit the street yesterday morning. An analyst at Goldman Sachs says we can expect the price of crude to double. Oil went up a bit on the news. The stocks in my oil & gas index are all up—and the equity market is slightly down. Importantly, the ten-year note’s interest rate has been dropping—coming down to 4.51% from 4.6%. With the soft jobs report this morning and traders finding out that Greenspan’s assertion of inflation rising—is wrong—the ten year has dropped again to 4.48%. During the past few days, as investors were adjusting their portfolios to reflect the end of a reporting period, the market has been running around screaming in a state of confusion. The news on oil prices and jobs forces a significant pattern to emerge that we can use to help make decisions.

The cost of petroleum will continue to rise. The needs of a nation-building China will add each year demand for another 500 million barrels a day to world demand of 84 million barrels per day. China will be better able than the U.S. to afford high energy costs because its other costs of production are dramatically lower. Demands from other emerging nations including India are expected to add to the demand pressure.

But what are the exploration companies doing? Revising reserve figures downward. Paying off debt. Not exploring for new oil because the risks and cost of exploration are believed to be too high. It is doubtful output will rise unless the reward for assuming the risks moves higher.

Therefore, we can expect that the rise of petroleum costs world-wide will be especially painful to the US economy. By buying Chinese textiles and appliances and components for everything, we are giving them the power to pay more for energy, while we keep losing our ability to compete.

Because of the rising cost of fuel there will be downward pressure on the U.S. economy’s fundamentals. The fiscal deficit will rise. Employment will lag. The Trade Deficit will widen and the dollar will continue to weaken.

more...

[nolabels]

28. Oh, so they did figure it out then

There is a lot more in that thinking than that, but it will all come out in the wash. Thanks for posting 54anickel. The speculation or opinion of a lot of the people on DU have also tended to lean that way it seems.

Higher Energy and transportation costs are never good for corporations. This kind of news gives local and diffused companies an edge if you ask me. Dick and his thugs can set up all the secret groups they want, in the long run you can't get what nobody has. You can't steal cheap energy, you have to find ways of making it. :donut:

[54anickel]

39. Why Do Stock and Bond Prices Fluctuate? (Hussmann)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc050404.htm

snip>

There's more going on than just supply and demand. It's the intersection of the two – equilibrium – that matters. See, it's tempting to think of buying as demand and selling as supply – that buying should move prices up and selling should move them down. When prices are going up, investors often think that “money is coming into the market” as if the market is some sort of a balloon that gets bigger as money blows it up. A moment's reflection, however, makes it clear that both buying and selling are just different sides of the same transaction. Prices move not because of buying or selling per se, since there is exactly the same amount of both in equilibrium. Rather, prices move because, at the previous price, investors would have been more eager to buy than sell, or vice versa, and so the price movement is required to “draw size” from the less willing side. To put the answer in terms of trading volume rather than shares outstanding, stocks and bonds fluctuate to ensure the amount that investors are willing to buy, at a particular time and a particular price, is exactly equal to the amount that investors are willing to sell at that time and price.

A good understanding of equilibrium is important, because it helps to cut through arguments about “money flow,” “cash on the sidelines,” and other common misunderstandings. During the first quarter, for example, we saw a substantial amount of new inflows into growth funds, which a number of analysts have cited as a bullish factor for the market. There are two problems with this. First, while mutual fund inflows are, in fact, correlated with stock returns, they are positively correlated with past returns, and unfortunately negatively correlated with subsequent stock returns. Those correlations are fairly weak for 3-month periods, but get stronger for periods of up to 18-months in each direction. So for example, an 18-month period of market strength is typically related to substantial inflows into mutual funds. In turn, substantial inflows into mutual funds are typically related to below-average market returns over the subsequent 18-month period. (Importantly, there is some actual information content in the inflows themselves, since the correlation between inflows and subsequent 18 month returns is stronger than the serial correlation between past 18 month returns and subsequent 18 month returns).

The second problem is that while money may very well flow into mutual funds of this sort or that, these inflows are exactly offset by reductions of stock holdings elsewhere, whether by institutions or individual investors. This is a simple fact of equilibrium. Aside from new issuance of stocks, when new money goes directly to the issuing company in order to finance real investment in factories, capital spending and so forth, there is no such thing as money moving into or out of the market. As I've noted before, if Mickey wants to sell his money market fund to buy stocks, the money market fund makes the redemption by selling money market securities (like commercial paper) to Nicky, whose cash then goes to Mickey, who uses it to buy stock from Ricky. In then end, Mickey holds the stock that used to be owned by Ricky. Ricky holds the cash that used to be held by Nicky, and Nicky owns the money market securities that used to be held by Mickey. Now, depending on who was more eager - Mickey, Nicky, or Ricky - prices may or may not have changed. But one thing is certain, there is still exactly the same amount of “cash on the sidelines” as there was before the transactions occurred.

.

Myopia

If we dig a little bit deeper, and think about what motivates buying and selling, we can also say that stock and bond prices move in order to align the expected, risk-adjusted returns of various assets over time. Put simply, there's a competition between every stock, bond and other security, and all of their prices fluctuate so that on the whole, the market doesn't view the expected return on any security as too high or too low relative to the others. So for example, if the market, on the whole, thinks that a particular stock's price is too low (i.e. it's long-term expected return is too high) relative to where other securities are trading, the desire to buy the stock at that price will outstrip the supply at that price, and so a price increase (and a reduction in the long-term expected return) will be required to increase supply and reduce demand enough to get back in equilibrium.

more...

[fedsron2us]

89. I am not sure I agree with some of this articles claims

For example, the statement - China will be better able than the U.S. to afford high energy costs because its other costs of production are dramatically lower. - is not necessarily true. If labour costs in China are low then energy by default must form a bigger percentage of the overall cost of production. The country is also not a particularly efficient user of energy. Add in the fact that most Chinese goods have be transported far further to their export markets than their US equivalents and its not hard to see that high oil prices would impact them harder than the USA or Europe. The key factor in the equation is the level of profit margin they are making on their goods and services. If, as I suspect, it is relatively low then high energy prices would hit them hard unless they are able to raise prices in their consumer markets. With the current weak job markets in the West I think they might find that difficult. The Chinese government does help producers with fuel subsidies but these will become unsustainable if oil spikes much higher. The Chinese economy also depends on a flow of cheap credit which has been underpinned by the Federal Reserves low interest rate policy. This has encouraged capital investment to flow from West to East. If the Federal reserve does continue raising interest rates then the flows might reverse. Given the mountain of non-performing debt that is rumoured to be hidden in the Chinese banking system we might be in for a rerun of the Asian crisis of the 1990's. The main difference on this occasion is that the US and European economies are also in a dire state. Some sort of global financial meltdown is not out of the question.

[54anickel]

22. Retirement plans fall short (No sh*t!)

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/retirement/2005-04-05-retire-ready_x.htm

NEW YORK (AP) — A majority of American workers continue to believe they'll have enough money for a comfortable retirement, but few have saved enough to ensure that will happen, a new study shows.

The annual Retirement Confidence Survey, released Tuesday by the nonprofit Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington, D.C., found that 65% of workers are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" of funding their retirements. That's down slightly from 68% last year, despite the improving economy. :spray:

snip>

"Most people say they live month-to-month, and their attitude is 'I'm getting by now, why not then?'" he said. "And many workers also still think they have time, which may not be correct."

In fact, more than half of workers admit they're behind in their savings for retirement — although they list it as their most important goal — and give a variety of reasons for that: everyday expenses, child-rearing expenses, medical costs, car costs, buying or remodeling a home, and saving for their children's education.

Two in 10 workers said that debt was a major problem for them, and more than half said they carried credit card debt.

Daniel J. Houston, senior vice president for retirement and investor services with Principal Financial Group Inc. in Des Moines, said that high debt and low savings are an indication "we are far overconsuming what we should be in this country." :freak: DUH!

more...

[54anickel]

24. We are outsourcing ourselves

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/shepherd/shepherd040505.html

snip>

Let me elaborate. A westerner has a very high personal overhead base he needs to earn a great deal of money just to stand still and to support his largest single overhead HOUSING. This is making him an uncompetitive proposition in this world of increasing cross border trade and easy communications. He not only has high housing costs but also high taxation and other costs which are also unduly inflated by high housing costs within the domestic economy. For example, a government worker needs a house, you have to be taxed accordingly to provide a suitable salary for the government employee to be able to afford the mortgage payments on his inflated house. All of the services you need and buy will also be charged on a scale that provides a suitable salary so that their employees can also purchase inflated houses.

I believe that the major cause of this unfortunate situation is good old fashioned greed. We love it when our houses increase in value. It feels like free money, and this money can be tapped by way of a refinance, the house in effect becomes an ATM machine. Bankers love secured lending against property as they perceive it as low risk. If you have credit on a car, the car can always disappear, that is the risk, but it is difficult to make a house disappear.

However, as is usual in any mania, what seems so logical always gets pushed to extremes and that is when the real trouble starts. Mortgages have been granted on ever-easier terms, if you are warm and breathing today you can get a mortgage. This avalanche of easy and abundant credit has the affect of inflating the secured asset which is YOUR HOUSE. The debtor (he is not a homeowner with a 95% or 100% mortgage, that is a ridiculous notion!) feels happy as his house inflates he obtains some free equity. The banks feel happy as the loan percentage decreases relative to the security that they hold. The price action encourages further new borrowings, as well as refinances, and new customers looking to finance "investment properties." The spiral of greed intensifies which the banks are only too happy to fuel. The debtors see an endless supply of free money and the banks see a secure revenue stream. Any voice of reason is ridiculed and marginalised as it is when any mania is in full flow!. That is why appraisals have become such a joke. The debtors and the bankers just want to keep the party going, as it seems like free money for everyone.

THE ECONOMY BECOMES STRESSED, AS THE TRANSFER OF WEALTH FROM THE DEBTORS TO THE BANKERS BY WAY OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS WHOSE ORIGINATION IS IN THE REAL ECONOMY BECOMES MORE EXTREME. THE NEED TO SUSTAIN THESE PAYMENTS BY WAY OF HIGH WAGES EVENTUALLY PRICES THE WEST OUT OF MANY MARKETS.

Your house may be worth $250,000 but have you still got a job? Is the local factory or office now closed as they relocated to China or India? If you are still working how secure is your job? Are you being ever more squeezed as in particular property costs rise but wages do not? We like to preach about the free market; well this is the free market at work!

more...

[UpInArms]

26. Commentary: Reports of price stability's demise greatly exaggerated

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B34A1EA21%2DC358%2D400A%2D9AA6%2DCD14187FF395%7D&siteid=mktw

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Lately, it's become de rigueur to worry about inflation. After all, the widely-followed consumer price index (CPI) is rising at the fastest 12-month pace in almost three years -- more than double the rate of a year ago.

And who can't give examples of individual prices heading skyward? I'm referring, of course, to gasoline and oil on the back of a jump in prices of crude. Health care is running a close second.

All this is true, but there are many goods and services whose prices are going the other way. Cars, cell phones and computers are just three.

In other words, some companies have pricing power, others do not.

The reason why some prices are going down while others are going up is not all that mysterious. There simply is not enough money circulating in the economy for all prices to rise, thus for the overall rate of inflation to pick up.

...more...

[54anickel]

31. Bwhahaha! This fellow is a good student of Greenspin and the

simple monetarist point of view. Keynes would be proud. :silly:

[54anickel]

29. Panic in Pakistan, World Next?

http://www.bullnotbull.com/bull/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=19&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

Proof that the American bubble knows no bounds, Pakistan's asset markets have been in a near vertical climb since shortly after 9/11, when President Pervez Musharraf decided to back the U.S. war against terrorism in neighboring Afghanistan and later Iraq. (see chart)

Musharraf's decision led to millions of dollars in aid from U.S. and British taxpayers flooding the nation of 150 million people. This in turn helped attract investment from overseas Pakistanis and retail investors to pile into the country's equity market. State-run companies began listing on the national stock exchange, helping to further boost investor confidence. The rapid rise in turn attracted droves of middle class and first-time investors, encouraged by a booming economy, low interest rates and better corporate earnings.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) became one of the hottest speculative emerging markets over the past three years, rising over 10-fold in just 42 months. In the end it became a speculative haven, latest home of the greater-fool theory, and source of hopes and dreams for easy money. The parabolic gains over the past three years demonstrate the signature pattern of yet another global blowout mania, and it appears that now that the top is in. According to Elliott Wave International (EWI), the index fell 29% in just 9 trading days after the peak. The speed of the advance, the momentary break of the top parallel trend channel and rapid reversal are classic signs of a major peak.

An article in the Pakistan Daily Times states that now that the market has peaked, a consensus has emerged in Pakistan that the KSE was the most manipulated stock market in the world, a gamblers' house rather than a place for investment. In a familiar echo of the NASDAQ bust of 2000, investors criticized big brokerage houses for not serving the interests of small shareholders. According to the article, up to 98% of investors are illiterate and totally dependant on the trends exhibited by large investors rather than calculating the risk factor on their own. Needless to say, the last place illiterate investors belong are in a speculative market, yet that is precisely the type of activity that attracts the uneducated masses, leading to just such a mania.

big snip>

It is important to keep this in mind today as we think about the possible effects that a small, seemingly insignificant economy such as Pakistan could have on markets in the US. The global economy is now simply too interconnected to think that any nation, including one as large as the US, is immune to such shocks. The Dow held up well in 1997 and 1998 when the market was in an up trend and the economy growing. This time, the trend is down, and the economy is on less stable footing. Another concern is that as more and more wealth is destroyed in Pakistan via a continued market slide, the need to find scapegoats as an outlet for anger and frustration will become very real. It is not a far stretch to imagine the Pakistani people blaming the stock market crash on some kind of US conspiracy, which would engender even more hostility towards America in an already volatile region.

more...

[UpInArms]

30. 11:25 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,458.76 +37.62 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 1,993.61 +2.54 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,180.94 +4.82 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.470 +0.14 (+0.31%)

NYSE Volume 648,757,000
Nasdaq Volume 610,627,000

11:00AM: Major indices maintain modest gains as investors embrace potential M&A activity... Reports suggest that S&P component Fortune Brands (FO 84.14 +0.81) may team up with Pernod Ricard SA of France to buy Allied Domecq (AED 47.45 +6.67), the world's second-largest liquor distributor... The proposed deal, valued at roughly $10 bln, further validates strong corporate financials, an ongoing desire to boost profitability and would create a more streamlined yet diversified competitor in a market currently dominated by rival Diageo PLC (DEO 58.90 +1.57)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1904/1008, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1541/1155

10:30AM: Equities still on the offensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... Health Care (+1.3%) has paced the way in the wake of Pfizer's restructuring while Financial (+0.6%), Telecom Services (+0.6%) and Consumer Staples (+0.5%) have also been influential leaders to the upside... Even Energy (+0.3%), which had been weak amid falling oil prices, has gained ground as oil has rebounded somewhat...

Technology has been mixed, as gains in Semiconductor (+0.6%) have offset weakness in Software (-0.8%), which has been under pressure following downside quarterly guidance (i.e. MENT, RSAS) and downbeat analyst comments regarding an unfavorable short-term outlook for the group...DJTA +0.2, DJUA +0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1876/946, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1519/1043

10:00AM: Market continues to climb as Pfizer's restructuring provides a boost to blue chips... At its widely anticipated analyst meeting, Pfizer (PFE 26.74 +0.81) has announced a cost-cutting initiative expected to save about $4 bln annually over the next four years...

[UpInArms]

32. China not attending G7 (link on edit)

11:24am 04/05/05 CHINA FINANCE MINISTER JIN WON'T ATTEND G7/IMF MEET

11:24am 04/05/05 CHINA CENTRAL BANK PRES. ZHOU WON'T ATTEND G7/IMF MEET

11:24am 04/05/05 2 TOP CHINESE OFFICIALS WON'T ATTEND G7/IMF MEETING

Two top Chinese officials won't attend G7/IMF meetings

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.4939544792-833887136&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- China's two senior economic policy makers will not be coming to Washington later this month to discuss the country's fixed exchange rate with U.S. Treasury officials and their G7 counterparts, U.S. and Chinese officials said Tuesday. China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Finance Minister Jin Renqing won't attend the G7 meeting or the spring meeting of the IMF and World Bank. Deputy central bank governor Li Ruogu and vice finance minister Li Yong will instead represent China at the IMF meetings that take place over the weekend of April 16, according to a Chinese official.

[54anickel]

33. Heh-heh-heh...n/t

[54anickel]

34. China slams US efforts to curb textile imports

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=4&u=/afp/20050405/bs_afp/chinatradetextilesus_050405122448

BEIJING (AFP) - China slammed US efforts to reimplement quotas on Chinese textile imports as an unfair and unreasonable move running counter to trade liberalization and smacking of protectionism.


"The major reason for this issue is that the US and Europe, as major importers, have some unreasonable arrangements that are over-protectionist," foreign ministry spokesman Qing Gang said.


"China supports trade liberalization and facilitation and opposes trade protectionism and the imposition of unfair and discriminatory measures on Chinese goods, especially textile products."


He urged Washington to resolve the issue through dialogue.

more...

[UpInArms]

37. it's not nice to mess with your banker .......eom

[54anickel]

35. Empty Rhetoric for Veterans (Ron Paul)

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2005/tst040405.htm

Many military veterans were shocked to see that the federal budget for 2006 makes several cuts in veterans benefits and services. Under the proposed budget, the Veterans Administration will increase once again the co-pay cost of prescription drugs, while adding a new annual fee for medical benefits. The budget also calls for the reduction of veterans home funding and limits the number of VA nursing home beds. Some members of Congress have even suggested rewriting the definition of "veteran" in a way that could deny VA health benefits for millions of retired servicemen.

Unfortunately, the trust that members of our armed forces put in their government has been breached time and time again, and the recent budget vote represents anther blow to veterans. Even as we send hundreds of thousands of soldiers into Iraq, Congress can’t get its priorities straight.

Our invasion of Iraq will swell the ranks of our combat veterans, many of whom will need medical care as they grow older. Sadly, health issues arising from the first war with Iraq still have not been addressed. Congress should immediately end the silence and formally address Gulf War Syndrome, which has had a devastating impact on veterans who served in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. As a medical doctor, I believe the syndrome is very real, and likely represents several different maladies caused by exposure to conditions specific to the Gulf region at the time. Congress and the VA should stop insulting Gulf War veterans and recognize that the syndrome is a serious illness that needs treatment. We can only hope and pray that our soldiers in Iraq today do not suffer from similar illnesses in the future.

It’s easy to talk about honoring veterans and their sacrifices, even while the federal government treats veterans badly. Congress wastes billions of dollars funding countless unconstitutional programs, but fails to provide adequately for the men and women who carry out the most important constitutional function: national defense.

We can best honor both our veterans and our current armed forces by pursuing a coherent foreign policy. No veteran should ever have to look back and ask himself, "Why were we over there in the first place?" Too often history demonstrates that wars are fought for political and economic reasons, rather than legitimate national security reasons. Supporting the troops means never putting them in harm’s way unless America is truly threatened.

more...

[UpInArms]

36. Fewer jobs to cut - layoff down from Feb - up from 2004

U.S. job-cut plans fell in March

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7392646/

NEW YORK - U.S. firms planned 20 percent fewer layoffs in March after a jump in the prior month, suggesting the labor market is recovering in fits and starts.

Employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said employers announced 86,396 job cuts last month, down from 108,387 in February, but 27 percent higher than in March 2004.

The data come just a few days after the government released its tally of payrolls for March, which showed 110,000 jobs were created in the month, half of Wall Street's median estimate.

"The only clear picture we have from the job-cut numbers this year is that employers appear to be confused about the direction this economy is taking," said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

...more...

[54anickel]

40. ACK! It's now hitting the military-industrial complex...n/t

[UpInArms]

44. Ford to reduce white collar workforce

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5B685BBA%2D2F8F%2D43FD%2DB7D5%2DCDF3A0BA5677%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Ford Motor plans to slash up to 1,000 salaried workers in an effort to streamline costs amid a brutal economic climate for U.S. automakers.

Ford (F: news, chart, profile) said it will offer early retirement packages or buyouts to certain white collar workers but if a sufficient amount of employees don't accept the offer, the company said it will consider involuntary reductions.

"The U.S. business environment is pretty tough right now," said Ford spokeswoman Marcey Evans. "We've set financial targets that we intend to meet. To do that, we'll need some more rigorous cost cuts."

On the heels of a harsh loss warning from rival General Motors last month, Ford sought to reassure investors by confirming its prior 2005 targets, though at the low end of its range. See full story.

...more...

[MARALE]

50. Wow. there is a lot of spin in this article

"The only clear picture we have from the job-cut numbers this year is that employers appear to be confused about the direction this economy is taking."

Who is confused? I don't have any words for this...

[UpInArms]

80. Sprint CEO says Nextel acquisition will mean job cuts

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.6525041898-833892471&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Sprint Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Gary Forsee Tuesday said the phone company's planned acquisition of Nextel Communications will produce job cuts, though he offered no specific numbers following a speech to the Boston College Chief Executives' Club. "But as opposed to other mergers that have had the headlines (be) job cuts, ours has been about growth, about innovation, about the things we are going to do for customers as a result of that," he said. The companies operate on two separate networks, with Nextel (NXTL) focused on wireless in the business arena, while Sprint caters more to consumers. Shares of Sprint (FON) rose 14 cents to $23.18 Tuesday afternoon.

Well, looks like this "headline" is about jobcuts, Gary. Sheesh!

[UpInArms]

41. 12:04 EST numbers and noon blather

Dow 10,447.52 +26.38 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,993.48 +2.41 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,179.61 +3.49 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.476 +0.20 (+0.45%)

NYSE Volume 795,824,000
Nasdaq Volume 753,579,000

12:00PM: Market holds onto solid gain midday amid Pfizer's hopeful restructuring and falling oil prices... While Pfizer's (PFE 26.77 +0.84) analyst meeting provided investors with in-line Q1 guidance and a lower than expected FY05 earnings outlook, investors have embraced the unveiling of its better than expected plan to cut costs by about $4 bln annually (estimates were $2-3 bln) during what has called a "transition year."... The announcement has not only provided a lift to blue chips but also underpinned a more positive sentiment than was apparent at this time yesterday...

Modest profit taking in crude oil prices ($56.90/bbl -$0.11), a day after surging to all-time highs above $58/bbl, has also contributed to broad-based buying interest that has kept virtually every sector in positive territory... Health Care (+1.3%) has led the charge following Pfizer's restructuring while Financial (+0.6%) has extended yesterday's gains amid strong follow through in shares of American International Group (AIG 54.05 +0.75)... Even Energy (+0.3%), which had been weak amid falling oil prices, has clung to modest gains...

Technology, however, has been mixed, as modest strength in Semiconductor struggles to offset weakness in and Software... The latter has lost ground following earnings warnings from a handful of companies (i.e. MENT, RSAS) amid a more unfavorable short-term outlook for the group... Not even an Lehman upgrade on Google (GOOG 189.17 +3.88) has been able to keep Internet (-0.6%) stocks in positive territory...

[54anickel]

43. Do you see Voodoo II? I do (Subscription)

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/news/opinion/11050160.htm

snip>

Bush's five-year budget projections fail to take into account the probable continued costs for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the costs of implementing his proposed Social Security privatization plan, and reductions in tax revenues expected from revamping the alternative minimum tax to prevent it from affecting increased numbers of middle-class taxpayers.

snip>

The bipartisan Concord Coalition said Bush's 2006 budget document is "as significant for what it omits as for what it includes."

The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said Bush's five-year budget window "paints a misleading picture since the bulk of the cost of major initiatives, including making the tax cuts permanent and Social Security reform, would fall beyond that time frame."

The organization also said Bush's pledge to cut the deficit in half by 2009 is too "timid," considering the long-term funding problems facing Medicare and Social Security once baby boomers begin retiring in droves.

U.S. Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said deficits could exceed an enormous $4 trillion in the next 10 years if the true costs of Iraq, overhauling Social Security and permanent tax cuts were included.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that the deficits are "unsustainable." He said Congress should consider both spending cuts and tax increases to restore fiscal sobriety.

But Bush irresponsibly opposes scaling back the tax cuts and is even proposing sizable new ones.

Moreover, he has done precious little to rein in spending. Amazingly, he hasn't vetoed a single spending bill. But he pushed hard for Congress to approve a prohibitively expensive Medicare prescription drug bill projected to cost $724 billion over 10 years.

Like Reagan, Bush has slashed taxes and greatly escalated defense spending without seeming to realize that such a combination is a sure-fire recipe for spiraling budget deficits.

more... but that's the meat of this article of friggen single sentence paragraphs that they have the audacity to require a subscription to :grr:

[UpInArms]

46. connecting the dots (or the sentences)

But Bush irresponsibly opposes scaling back the tax cuts and is even proposing sizable new ones.

Moreover, he has done precious little to rein in spending. Amazingly, he hasn't vetoed a single spending bill. But he pushed hard for Congress to approve a prohibitively expensive Medicare prescription drug bill projected to cost $724 billion over 10 years.

Like Reagan, Bush has slashed taxes and greatly escalated defense spending without seeming to realize that such a combination is a sure-fire recipe for spiraling budget deficits.

Irresponsible? No, it's criminal - the looting of this country continues unabated.

Precious Little? Is that like "Chicken Little"? Not "precious little" - not one freaking thing has been done in the name of fiscal sanity - gutting all social safeguards for the reign of terror and war :grr:

Like RayGun? No, this creep is RayGun on Steroids.

Thanks for the link 54anickel!

[54anickel]

47. This Time It Really Is Different! (heh-heh, rock meet hard place)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/optimist040205.html

In his excellent (as always) article of 3/30/05, the Mogambo asked The Big Question - Will the next rate increase by the Federal Reserve be a quarter point or a half point? That very same Big Question was the subject of considerable speculation before the previous FED meeting. Not even the mighty Mogambo offered to answer The Big Question, but the Optimist will do so now. The Optimist is happy to advise that the next FED meeting will result in an interest rate increase of no more than a quarter point, and the meeting after that may well be a surprise reduction in interest rates! The Optimist is pleased to be the first to present this unexpected perspective!

Contrary to the derogatory comments made by others about the intellectual quality within the FED, and despite the continuing process of dollar destruction caused by massive printing of excess dollars, the Optimist is confident that the FED is composed of people who are of reasonable (maybe even above average) intelligence. As evidence of that well disguised level of intelligence, the Optimist points to the masterful way they camouflage their prolific printing of excess dollars with statements which are cryptic to the point where anyone can interpret them to mean anything! The Optimist therefore can make the leap of faith that the members of the FED will be smart enough to see the US economy as clearly as the average high school student.

Any recent graduate from high school can readily report that there is no longer an abundance of good manufacturing job opportunities available in the USA. Many high school grads will be grateful to just get a job as a sales clerk in a deep discount store (which sells products made by the many new manufacturing jobs in China, Japan, and India). The Optimist notes with despair that even the number of service sector job opportunities are already declining as a result of the recent fitness craze causing a reduction in the number of previously sought after jobs like Journeyman Hamburger Fabricator at McD's. The point is that there is no longer a strong backbone (or leg bones, or arm bones, or anything else resembling a structural skeleton) of jobs which can continue through increases in interest rates that have historically been applied to cool the fires of inflation. Instead of a strong supporting skeleton, the USA economy has a soft underbelly of jobs which depend on the consumer to find a little more monthly income with which to make an additional minimum monthly payment on yet another new widget. Consumers no longer ask how much the widget costs. They need only be assured that they can fit the minimum monthly payments into their already crowded credit card agenda.

The Optimist is confident that our members of the FED, who have average or possibly even higher levels of intelligence, will be smart enough to foresee that increases in interest rates will directly translate into consumers having less minimum monthly spending ability. If the deep discount stores don't have buyers for that huge warehouse full of widgets, then the stores will quickly cut back on the precious service sector jobs our economy depends on. The quick result of higher interest rates will be a substantial loss of real service sector jobs of a magnitude that is difficult to hide among the already massively adjusted statistics. The Optimist is confident that a policy which leads to obviously rising unemployment is not politically correct.

more...

Ahhh, but what's that saying about something that can't go on forever? :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

48. my favorite thought about the huge credit

card debt:

McD's started taking credit cards (what? a year ago?) -

now you can go in and charge a sandwich, poop it out 8 hours later and still be paying for it in 30 years :eyes:

[54anickel]

49. SNARF!!!

poop it out 8 hours later and still be paying for it in 30 years :spray:

Credit card debt, the new preservative!

[54anickel]

52. BABY ONE MORE TIME / OOPS! ... I DID IT AGAIN

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rkirby040405.html

snip>

I don't know about you, dear reader, but the notion of history repeating itself combined with the secret recipe for success kind - a - sort - of reminds me of technical analysis in economics. After all, it is recurring events or patterns of past events that are supposed to have predictive powers as to what is likely to happen in the future, isn't it? Well, with all this in mind , I couldn't help but marvel at this handy chart sent to me by a reader in Basel, Switzerland just the other day:



You see folks, I recently wrote a piece entitled, Pirates of the Caribbean, (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2005/0318.html) outlining how ridiculous claims are - that Caribbean based hedge funds, depicted in green above, bought 23 billion worth of US securities in the month of Jan. 05.

What my newest best friend from Basel, Switzerland pointed out to me was this:
"I noticed that the table you provided allows one to make a quick list of "America's Most Servile", based on the % change in dollar holdings from Jan 04 to Jan 05. And what do you know, the Pirates have managed to surpass even the UK in terms of outright subservience and bootlicking. Quite an achievement. Once again, it is left to France to show the way."

Who would have figured? Who still remembers? I mean, what is it about the French that they are able to sniff these things out anyway? Perhaps I'm simply predisposed to the top-down philosophy of analysis while the Swiss are more inclined to pursue a bottom up approach? Who knows? After dusting off my trusty economics history book, I realize that it was France redeeming their dollars for gold, at the then official price of $35 per ounce, at the direction of Charles de Gaulle - that knocked the world off the gold standard collapsing the Bretton Woods System just over 30 years ago during the Nixon administration? All of this got me thinking. Is this a case of, Oops!...I Did It Again or would this encore sophomoric performance be better described as foreshadow; as in do it to me - Baby One More Time?

more...

[54anickel]

54. ECB itches to raise rates, but why?

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/04/04/business/ecb.html



FRANKFURT Sluggish economies with low inflation seldom justify higher interest rates, but the European Central Bank will probably deliver precisely that to the 12-nation euro zone this year, and explaining why is already proving tricky.

At the bank's monthly meeting Thursday, it could begin to lay the rhetorical groundwork for raising rates, most likely in the fall. But it will not be able to justify this move as central banks normally do, economists and ECB analysts said.

The ECB's statutes direct it to maintain price stability. It also may look after economic growth - but not if that undermines the fight against inflation.

With growth hovering below 2 percent, and inflation near the same level, logic suggests that there is no need for the ECB to raise its benchmark rate, which has been at 2 percent since June 2003.

European politicians have worried aloud that higher rates would draw off what little steam the economy has.

snip>

Ironically, European Union leaders may have strengthened the case for higher rates last month, when they revamped the 1997 Stability and Growth Pact to allow greater deficit spending, economists note.

more...

[54anickel]

55. France & Germany: Builders Turned Wreckers

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

As usual, the European Union has punted when it comes to taking hard decisions over the course of its future development. Consequently, one has a sense of drift and inertia amongst EU policy makers these days. In fact, more procrastination of the sort witnessed over the past month or so and the entire euro project itself ultimately could be placed at risk. The foreign exchange markets are beginning to sense this, judging from the recent weakness of the currency against the dollar. After all, one doesn’t win a beauty contest simply by being the least ugliest around, and the euro’s current prestige seems largely to have become a product of being the least bad paper currency alternative. Given the tenuous nature of its current status, and its limited historic provenance, EU officialdom urgently has to create a positive economic context so as to ensure that the euro survives as a genuine reserve currency alternative.

On the vexed issue of public borrowing, the member states of the euro zone agreed 2 weeks ago to relax constraints to which their budgets are subject under the Stability and Growth Pact. Whilst we applaud any attempt to rid the EU of an economically illogical and politically untenable pact, it is disappointing that the member states offered so little in the way of a credible alternative. Under the “reformed” version of the SGP, governments will be able to run budget deficits of more than 3 per cent of gross domestic product for several years without facing a penalty. That in itself eliminates the flagrant and persistent breach of a pact which, in reality was politically unenforceable, especially for larger nations such as Germany and France. Non-euro member Britain, which has emphasized fiscal policy borrowing requirements over the course of an entire economic cycle, used to be cited as a used to be cited as a potential alternative to the SGP, but this time around, no mechanism at all was proposed to ensure/any kind of fiscal responsibility over the medium to longer term, other than future promises to do so, tantamount to a persistent drug offender pledging to stay clean in the future.

However laudable the goal of fiscal flexibility may be, replacing it with the economic equivalent of pabulum is surely not a serious alternative. Given the existence of a single currency, it means that virtuous countries, which have hitherto run balanced budgets and kept their spending patterns in check, are inexorably lumped together with the profligates, so that any sanction imposed by the capital markets, (such as the demand for higher equilibrating rates to compensate for the deterioration in certain countries’ public finances), punishes all alike. In effect, no incentive exists to pursue responsible fiscal policy because saint and sinner both end up in the equivalent of economic purgatory. This is hardly likely to engender future confidence in the euro project.

Similarly, on the proposed adoption of the services directive to create a single and free market for services within the union, the proposals were watered down to the point where the liberalisation is meaningless in all but name. Related to the liberalisation proposal and the Stability Pact “reform”, the leaders could have adopted a narrow focus on growth and employment when they undertook the mid-term review of the Lisbon agenda, a project of microeconomic reforms that has run into the ground. Instead, they managed to overload the Lisbon agenda with a diffuse collection of more than 100 policy goals, none of which went anywhere near resolving the issue of how to revive long term growth and productivity trends with the European Union.

Of course, it is very difficult to garner political support for greater integration between the poorer nations of Eastern Europe with their wealthier counterparts in the West in the absence of an economically vibrant backdrop. The irony is that the failure to grasp the nettle on any of these issues could not be laid at the door of viscerally euro-sceptical nations such as the United Kingdom, but the very champions of an “ever and closer political union”, France and Germany. Germany, the architect of the Stability Pact, has been one of its most flagrant violators (as has France) and one of the first to call for its reform/abolition.

Germany and France, the driving force behind the notion of a “United States of Europe” as an economic and political counterpoint to American hegemony, now find themselves hoisted on their own petards. As Financial Times chief economics editor Martin Wolf observed recently, both nations evince “a desperate desire for integration shorn of inconvenience. Few, if any, leaders are prepared to recognise a simple truth: neither European enlargement nor monetary union, for that matter, can succeed without far more flexible labour markets. Mr Chirac condemned such ‘ultra-liberalism’ as the new communism. This is a breathtaking conflation of freedom with its opposite. But his response to modest reforms also shows how far Mr Chirac is from recognising today's realities.”

more...

Ain't globalization been great for labor? :eyes:

[54anickel]

60. Bush: Social Security Has Bleak Future

Heh-heh, notice the name of the link path? ap on go PR :eyes: Could they be any more obvious in their propaganda machine?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=544&ncid=703&e=1&u=/ap/20050405/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush

PARKERSBURG, W.Va. - President Bush sought to dramatize Social Security's solvency problems Tuesday by pointing to government IOUs — stored in a file cabinet — that are supposed to finance America's future retirement needs.



"A lot of people in America think there is a trust — that we take your money in payroll taxes and then we hold it for you and then when you retire, we give it back to you," Bush said in a speech at the University of West Virginia at Parkersburg.


"But that's not the way it works," Bush said. "There is no trust `fund' — just IOUs that I saw firsthand," Bush said.


Earlier, Susan Chapman of the Office of Public Debt Accounting had shown Bush an ivory four-drawer filing cabinet with numeric locks. "This is it," she said.


"This is what exists," Bush said, illustrating his point that the promise of future Social Security benefits are simply stashed in a file.


Chapman opened the second drawer and pulled out a white notebook filled with pseudo Treasury securities — pieces of paper that offer physical evidence of $1.7 trillion in treasury bonds that make up the trust fund.

more...

[UpInArms]

62. loved that link

ap/20050405/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush

would that stand for "asso press's on-going public relations for the Whitehouse"?

:rofl:

[54anickel]

67. That's my guess. I'm waiting for someone to change the PR to BS...eom

[Tace]

76. Shaft Upon Shaft Upon Shaft

[amandabeech]

88. Our businesssman-pResident apparently doesn't know what a

note, bond or any legal evidence of indebtedness looks like. Fortunately, I hope, most voters do know because they've purchased vehicles and homes and seen notes, a/k/a IOU's.

What a moran.-

[UpInArms]

63. 2:09 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,461.79 +40.65 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,997.89 +6.82 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,181.60 +5.48 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.473 +0.17 (+0.38%)

NYSE Volume 1,217,944,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,116,145,000

2:00PM: Market still trades at improved levels as investors sift through the details of Greenspan's testimony... While Fed Chairman Greenspan has said that the current spike in oil prices may not be long-lived and that higher inventories may ease oil price frenzy, he has also noted that falling energy use is virtually inevitable and that the world's oil refining capacity is worrisome... Greenspan, however, has not elaborated on the economic impact of high oil prices or discuss the potential impact on inflation... Meanwhile, crude oil futures ($56.25/bbl -$0.76) have barely budged on the news... NYSE Adv/Dec 1854/1314, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1500/1452

1:30PM: Stocks remain confined to a tight trading range, but the indices still trade in positive territory... Treasurys, however, have been under modest pressure in quiet trade, as the lack of economic data has left bond traders waiting for Fed Chairman Greenspan's speech (13:50 ET) to potentially move the market... Thursday's claims data and a flurry of other Fed-speak this week could have an influence on bonds; but so far, yields on the 10-year note (-4/32) still stand around 4.47%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1891/1243, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1556/1360

[UpInArms]

64. Moody's cuts GM debt to lowest investment grade rating (Oopsie!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.6027231597-833890763&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded General Motors Corp.'s (GM) long-term debt rating to Baa3, which is the lowest investment grade rating, from Baa2, citing the expectation that a high fixed cost structure, increasingly competitive pricing environment and high healthcare costs will delay the automaker's recovery. The short-term debt rating was cut to Prime-3 from Prime-2. The outlook remains negative. Moody's also lowered the long-term debt rating of General Motors Acceptance Corp., GM's financing arm, to Baa2 from Baa1, but the short-term debt rating was affirmed at Prime-2. GM's stock, a component of the Dow industrials, was unchanged at $29.05.

GM junk - well, the label definitely fits. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

66. Moody's may downgrade Ford's debt rating (Oopsie again!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.6112896759-833891108&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service said it was reviewing Ford Motor Corp.'s long-term debt rating for a possible downgrade due to concerns over the automaker's ability to reach profit targets while maintaining current credit metrics. Moody's currently rates Ford's long-term debt at Baa1, which is 3 notches above junk status. The short-term rating was affirmed at Prime-2. Moody's is concerned about rising healthcare costs, sizable losses at its Jaguar unit, postential costs associated with the restructuring of auto parts maker Visteon (VC) and pressure on its competitive position. Moody's is also reviewing Ford's rental car unit Hertz Corp. long-term (Baa2) and short-term (Prime-2) debt for potential downgrades. Ford's stock was down a penny at $11.08.

and now FORD junk, too?

[54anickel]

68. Why stop there? Moody's lowers Morgan Stanley outlook to negative

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=8090502

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday lowered Morgan Stanley's (MWD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) debt ratings outlook to negative from stable, citing the company's intention to spin off its Discover credit card business.

A negative outlook signals that Moody's is more likely to downgrade the financial services company's debt ratings over the next 12 to 18 months, which in turn can raise the company's borrowing costs.

Morgan Stanley's notes outperformed Treasury securities on Tuesday morning, but lagged the broader corporate bond market.

"Discover has been an important stabilizing influence for the credit," said Van Hesser, financial credit analyst at HSBC Securities in New York.

more...

[54anickel]

83. Morgan Stanley Dissidents Want New CEO

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050405/morgan_stanley.html?.v=10

Morgan Stanley Dissident Shareholders Push One of Their Own to Replace CEO Philip Purcell


NEW YORK (AP) -- A day after Morgan Stanley announced its plan to spin off its Discover Card division, dissident shareholders demanded Tuesday that investment firm's chief executive, Philip Purcell, be dismissed and be replaced by one of their own.

Morgan Stanley shares sank more than 3 percent in late afternoon trading.

In a statement, the so-called "group of eight" former executives and current shareholders said Purcell should be replaced by former President Robert Scott, and that a separate non-executive chairman be named. Purcell currently holds both positions.

Scott said that, as CEO, he would contact former Morgan Stanley executives Stephan Newhouse, Vikram Pandit and John Havens -- all of whom unexpectedly left the firm in the wake of last week's management shakeup -- and ask them back to the firm.

more...

[UpInArms]

65. 2:48 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,460.75 +39.61 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,996.96 +5.89 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,181.17 +5.05 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.449 -0.07 (-0.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,349,522,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,233,766,000

2:30PM: Indices spike to session lows amid news of a GM debt downgrade... News that General Motors' (GM 29.15 +0.10) long term debt rating has been cut to Baa3 by Moody's has taken what little steam existed in the market prior to the announcement... However, the knee-jerk reaction appears to have been short-lived, as the market has shown resilience in the face of a decision that was arguably widely anticipated, and have since recovered much of what was lost...NYSE Adv/Dec 1850/1347, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1455/1492

2:00PM: Market still trades at improved levels as investors sift through the details of Greenspan's speech about energy... While Fed Chairman Greenspan has said that the current spike in oil prices may not be long-lived and that higher inventories may ease oil price frenzy, he has also noted that falling energy use is virtually inevitable and that the world's oil refining capacity is worrisome... Greenspan, however, has not elaborated on the economic impact of high oil prices or discussed the potential impact on inflation...

Meanwhile, neither crude oil futures ($56.25/bbl -$0.76) nor Treasurys - as the 10-year note is now down 2 ticks yielding 4.46% - have moved much on the news...NYSE Adv/Dec 1854/1314, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1500/1452

[54anickel]

69. "Spike to lows"? That's a tough visualization! Morans!!!

[UpInArms]

70. yeah, silly me - I thought "spikes" went upward

and "fell to lows" or "freefall" after receiving news

would better verbalize the activity.

[54anickel]

72. The whole blather content seems rather silly. Let's see, a knee-jerk

reaction to a widely anticipated event....

OMG!!! GM's junk, time to BAIL!!! Oh, wait a minute - I knew that. :silly:

[UpInArms]

81. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Regulator Resigns

3:53pm 04/05/05 FANNIE MAE, FREDDIE MAC REGULATOR FALCON RESIGNS

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38447.666744375-833892887&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Armando Falcon, head of the regulatory agency that oversees government-sponsored housing enterprises Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) has resigned his position effective May 20, according to a letter Falcon sent to President George W. Bush Tuesday. Falcon's resignation comes as Congress and the Bush administration are weighing a new regulatory agency for the two giant companies, which have weathered accounting scandals. Shares of Fannie Mae were recently trading at $52.30, up 84 cents, while Freddie Mac's shares rose 33 cents to $61.90.

(added link on edit)

[54anickel]

82. Jumping ship?

[RawMaterials]

85. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10458.46 +37.32 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 1999.32 +8.25 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 1181.39 +5.27 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.470% +0.14

NYSE Volume 1,868,233,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,687,292,000



Close: The market extended yesterday's gains as falling oil prices and Pfizer's restructuring kept sellers in check... Another day of profit taking (-1.7%) in crude oil futures ($56.05/bbl -$1.68) - a day after surging to all-time highs above $58/bbl - underpinned a positive tone that carried into the close... The commodity opened under pressure amid news of Saudi Aramco's plans to expand refinery capacity and closed even lower after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan commented on higher inventories easing the oil price frenzy...

Roughly two hours before the close of trading, Greenspan spoke to a petrochemical conference... While he said that falling energy use is "virtually inevitable" and that the world's refining capacity remains "worrisome," the absence of any comments regarding monetary policy or oil's impact on economic growth, failed to more persuasively push equities or bonds in either direction... Treasurys, due to the lack of inflationary comments and notable economic reports, were range-bound all day and had little if any impact on market activity, as the benchmark 10-year note closed down 3 ticks to yield 4.46%...

Meanwhile, Pfizer's (PFE 26.92 +0.99) proposed $4.0 bln cost-cutting plan during what the drug maker has dubbed a "transition year" was much larger than analysts expected (estimates were $2-3 bln)... So much so that investors viewed Pfizer's in-line Q1 guidance and a lower than expected FY05 earnings outlook with a grain of salt, as the news shed some new light on the improving health of a tarnished bellwether and provided a boost to blue chips across the board... Health Care (+1.8%) paced the way to the upside following Pfizer's restructuring while upbeat analyst comments on Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 43.14 +1.29) also provided a lift to Drug (+2.3%)...

Financial (+0.2%) also extended yesterday's gains, benefiting from strength in online brokerage following upbeat analyst comments... Morgan Stanley highlighted E*Trade (ET 12.02 +0.15) and Ameritrade (AMTD 10.74 +0.51) as solid buying opportunities in a group that has declined roughly 20% in 2005 amid persistent concerns about pricing pressure and choppy trading conditions...

Strength in Airline (+3.0%), following strong March traffic increases from the likes of Delta Air Lines traffic (DAL 4.12 ++0.12), Southwest Airlines (LUV 14.30 +0.27) and American Airlines (AMR 11.15 +0.17) of 14.4%, 12.0% and 9.1%, respectively, helped Transportation close to the upside... Technology, however, was mixed, as modest gains in Semiconductor somewhat offset losses in Networking, Hardware and Software... Software was weak amid earnings warnings from the likes of Mentor Graphics (MENT 10.04 -3.61) and RSA Security (RSAS 11.32 -4.55) and a more unfavorable short-term outlook for the group... One bright spot was Google (GOOG 188.57 +3.28), which was upgraded by Lehman Brothers...

Energy (-1.3%) was the only economic sector closing to the downside, as late-day profit taking in oil prices erased early gains in the sector... Separately, General Motors (GM 29.21 +0.16) made headlines when its long term debt rating was cut to Baa3 - a notch above junk status - by Moody's, temporarily pushing the indices to their lowest levels of the day... But the knee-jerk ended about as fast as it began, as such a decision, while negative, was arguably already anticipated by investors... DJTA +0.4, DJUA +0.7, DOT -0.2, Nasdaq 100 +0.5, Russell 2000 +0.1, SOX +0.1, S&P Midcap 400 +0.1, XOI -1.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 1854/1412, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1602/1447