Poll Indicates Recall of California Governor, Election of Schwarzenegger

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=3284C98A-B070-4AC8-85E051DCA707189A

A new poll indicates voters in California's recall election will choose to oust current governor Gray Davis and elect movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger to replace him.
Sixty-three percent of those surveyed in the CNN, USA Today and Gallup poll said they would vote to recall Mr. Davis on October seventh.

The poll found that 40-percent of respondents would choose Mr. Schwarzenegger to replace Governor Davis. Another 25 percent would elect Democratic Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante and 18 percent would vote for Republican state Senator Tom McClintock.

<snip>

(Poll was of 787 registered voters... Not much of a sampling.)

[DavidDvorkin]

1. Jeez, this is depressing

Runs counter to what seemed to be the trend before.

[diplomats]

4. That means the Repuke candidates get 58 percent

and the Dem 25 percent? Are a lot of Dems supporting Arnold????

[Democat]

15. Cruz obviously dropped the ball with his campaign

Even with the extreme media bias favoring Arnold, there is no way Cruz should be at 25% in California.

If Cruz loses this bad, his political career may be over.

He doesn't seem to have connected with people at all. His debate performance was, by almost all accounts, a failure.

What we needed in the race was someone who could get people excited, someone the opposite of Davis, What we ended up getting with Cruz, was someone who couldn't get people excited at all.

I supported having a Democrat jump into the race, but it looks like we should have picked a Democratic celebrity who could compete with Arnold, rather than a boring politician who can actually govern.

The most important factor here, is still the almost universal media bias favoring Arnold and bashing Davis.

The right wing media bias we've seen in California is a preview of the bias we are going to see in 2004, and it isn't a good sign for Democrats.

[David__77]

22. Your post being quoted and discussed on "Free Republic"

I have been looking over there--not a good idea. But they are discussing your post, which I think contains some truths and some points that are off. I do not believe that this poll is accurate. It showed the recall ahead by 69% to 26% in August. That is not possible. It really isn't.

There are strategically positive roles that this poll serves for our side, please be aware. We need to continue to focus on carefully mobilizing our political base. If we do so thoroughly and work hard, we will still have a Democratic governor. The turnout models are greatly divergent in different polls.

[Dagaz]

23. I wanted DiFi all along

All I heard is "don't worry this is a Democrat state". Well it looks like the party sat on it's hands and may lose one that should NEVER even be close. Arnold is pretty centrist but still this was a blown call by the DLC.

[okieinpain]

28. hell cruz should be pulling the hispanic vote, what the hell

happen.

[Cha]

2. A poll like this would only make me go out and work Harder

Against the recall!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. the Gallup poll is not acurate!

:kick:

[mike_c]

5. volunteers from my union called today....

They're working to get out the vote, and urging no on recall (the CFA supports Bustamante, but I'll likely vote for Camejo).

[David__77]

24. Please consider Bustamante.

He is calling for important progressive reform. We can hold him to it: regulating gasoline, working toward universal health coverage, lowering college fees. He's got a good agenda. I really hope that the left will support him. We really can't afford a loss here. I could understand more if Bustamante were Zell Miller, or even if he were Diane Feinstein. But he is not. He's running on a labor-civil rights platform I would think we can all agree on.

[jiacinto]

32. You forgot. This is DU

The place where all too many people want to defeat Democrats to "send their messages".

[jiacinto]

31. Do you really Arnold to be Govenor

Then again I forgot that this is DU, where some people are more interested in defeating Democrats than actually electing them.

[Booberdawg]

6. Is that of registered voters? Or of potential voters?

[demdave]

7. 63 percent of probable voters

http://cnn.allpolitics.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&expire=-1&urlID=7710325&fb=Y&partnerID=2001

[rfranklin]

8. Freakin' morans!

things will be much better in Calee-forn-ya with the Republicans in charge--yeah!

[okieinpain]

11. oh they will be, the repubs will dump billions into cali to create

that illusion. after the 04 election, the bubble will burst again. now that arnold has been crowned, can we fire that other dumb-ass mccaullife, or whatever the fuck his name is. I thought clinton was suppose to be the master politician.

[paulk]

9. all I can say is

if the people of California are stupid enough to put a man in office to run the 7th largest economy in the WORLD who has absolutely no experience in government WHATSOEVER - they'll get what they deserve.

Maybe some of those businesses will move to Colorado and help out our economy here! (just looking for a silver lining)

[w4rma]

10. 9/10/2003 Field Poll: Cruz: 32%, Arnold: 27%, Yes: 55%, No: 40%

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/

9/10/2003 #2090: Impact of Ueberroth's withdrawal on voter preferences in the replacement election.
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2090.pdf

9/16/2003 Special Report: A Different Take on "Why Polls Differ"
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/WhyPollsDiffer-Rebuttal.pdf

[maggrwaggr]

12. I trust no poll in California. Especially just 787 voters

the state is just WAY too diverse for that to be anything resembling a reliable sample.

You'd have to call thousands of people from all over the state, and in all different parts of all the cities to get anything close to an actual accurate poll.

So don't despair

[robcon]

13. The problem with polls has nothing to do with California diversity.

The diversity issue can be addressed by a large sample.

The real problem with polls is predicting the turnout. How many, and who, will actually vote is far more notoriously difficult to project that what a whole group (e.g., either registered voters or registered voters who say they will vote) thinks. The election results are unknown and probably unknowable, since among the people who say they will vote, a large number of them will not vote.

Turnout is the key variable, and polls are poor at predicting turnout.

[coralrf]

18. ITS A WINGNUT POLL!!!!!.....

Go to the site. There have been about 3 like that in the last 2 days. It is certainly an organized effort to dictate trend. Just blow it off.

Cruz and Arnuld are is dead heat BEFORE a commitment has to be made. You can expect about 3 to 5% of voters to get real at the polls.

Lets wait.

[CatWoman]

14. Shades of Florida 2002

right before the election, all the polls had McBride leading.

Suddenly Jeb Bush took the lead, and ultimately "won".

We're seeing it again.

The fix is in. It WILL be stolen.

They are just setting it up beforehand.

[meisje]

17. lay off the catnip already

[catzies]

26. Ah, but CatWoman may be right I fear.

And as as Californian, I despair at the thought. But as a poster said upthread, it's probably an attempt at trend dictating. I personally have felt the fix was in since the recall effort began.

[leesa]

16. Keep your balance. This is Republican propaganda

They want to make it seem as though there is no reason to come out to vote. Either that or they want to make it look as though the neaderthal is popular so they can steal the vote. Can there be that many foolish people that are ready to throw their state away to someone who can't even run a restaurant?

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

19. As I mentioned earlier, there was a sampling of barely 700 people...

I wouldn't give this that much credence.

[Evanstondem]

29. 700 people is plenty large enough

to show Arnold poised to win IF their models for projecting turnout are correct. Let's hope they're not.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

36. I'm no statistition, but it just seems to me with such a diverse

and large population, a sampling of what, .0001%? would garner very reliable results. Couple that with how many can't get off work on election day, how much Diebold gets paid...

[Le Taz Hot]

47. Yeah, if the polling was done in San Diego

n/t

[OHdem10]

30. CNN Polls cannot always be trusted

I cannot prove this but sometimes Schneider's polls are very suspicious. He quickly pulls up polls that will show Bush doing marveoulsy when other polls are indicating otherwise. The last referendeum in California -- it was so obvious -- Cnn was pushing in one direction. I cannot remember whether pro or con. What matters is that When the votes were in and tallied Cnn was off by some humongous number. Enough they should have been red in the face for along time. During the 2000 election they had said over and over that Bush was ahead in NH by some l6 points. Wrong again. JOHN McCain won NH. One of the uses of polls is to change public opinion. CNN does this all the time.
If they can make people think Arnold is already the winner--discourages the Dems from coming out to vote. and Arnold will win.
It is called an underhanded way of helping Republicans suppress the vote. Contact everyone you know who is Dem in California and get them to spread the word--Get out the vote.

[neuvocat]

35. You need at least 1500 people for a large enough sample.

Its still a very big tossup. I wouldn't listen to this poll.

[Merlin]

40. Incorrect. If the sample is done right, you need less than 500.

Math doesn't lie. A poll of less than 500 sample size, if the sample is balanced and representative, will be accurate + or - 5% about 96% of the time.

This poll is done by Gallup. You can bank on the fact that it was done right and is unbiased.

This really, really pisses me off. I cannot believe Californians are so fucking stupid as to elect this bozo.

[dusty64]

20. Fine, guess

they'll just have to have another recall. I object to the headline stating arnold would be "elected", this is another rightwing COUP! When are the Dems going to start realizing this is WAR, if they start recalls against repuke governors and reredistrict in states they can this shit will end quickly. If they continue to play nice and roll over .....................

[pippin]

21. Latino voters

California has the highest Latino population of any state at over 10 million, and they make up 32% of the state's population. Why do I think that polls like the one cited probably didn't poll Latinos? Somehow it seems unlikely Arnold would get their vote.

[tom hunt]

25. Lets see here--------how many times---885,673,997,274,611.004,157

CNN-USA Today-Gallent Poll---Yes if they made another poll it really, really must be the gosple truth.Yes it has got to be the truth.Geeeeezzzz man.When are people going to believe half they see and nothing they here in this "corporate owned media"How many "polls" you gonna be hit in the head and still bite.

[RandomKoolzip]

27. Uh, what?

Seriously, I can't understand your post, Tom. Are you saying we SHOULD trust the GALLUP poll or not?

[tom hunt]

33. do not

Do you actually really believe those polls.How many polls have you listen to that was for us the people?

[JCMach1]

34. Must have polled San Diego

It should be much closer.

The same poll had 60+% for recall. That number is way to high as well.

Can you say SKEWED>>>>>>>>>>>

[LunaC]

37. Who's behind Gallup, anyway?

Who's on their Board of Directors? I couldn't find any info on-line. Knowing who they are and their connections is helpful in determining if there are motivations for them to be biased.

Ah-nold is doing heavy (vapid, empty rhetoric) TV advertising (explainng why his campaign is $2.4 in debt) but recent soundbites show Davis honestly pissed that Ah-nold is skewing the budget numbers and refusing a televised debate with Davis to hash it out. I thought this would be a "Tell" to the public that Ah-nold didn't know what in the hell he was talking about. I'm truly amazed by these unexpected poll numbers.

On the positive side, it might be enough to scare and motivate more Dems into voting on October 7th.

[robbedvoter]

42. Dewey beats Truman Gallup stopped polling during that election

because it was so obvious Truman was toast. People I know believed it and voted for a 3rd party candidate - but Gallup's ploy still failed. They got better lately (think of all those "neck in neck" bush vs Gore in 2000). This is psy-ops warfare. Just get your asses to the polls and vote!

[farmboxer]

38. Republicans Always Put Out Those Polls To Fool The Sheep

They know the sheep follow the majority, plus, I smell election fraud once again.

[Andromeda]

39. Ignore that poll...

it's BS. Swartzenegger just got a spike in the polls because of the "debate." He was well scripted and rehearsed so naturally he did well. That was the way it was planned.

Women dislike Swartenegger because of his chauvinism and his demeaning behavior of women. When election day comes the result will probably surprise everybody. If women turn out in droves I guarantee you Steriod Man will not be elected!

[Merlin]

41. Stick heads in sand if you like. But I guarantee this poll is accurate.

Gallup is a highly reputable organization. The sample size is plenty large enough. This poll is a good one.

I find it excruciating to believe this complete and utter jackass is going to govern the USA's largest state at a time of enormous crisis. I hope he makes of it a disaster.

[dbt]

43. If Zogby had done the polling

And showed the same result, it would be crying time. If CNN and USA Today are pro-bu$h--and they are--why are their poll figures any more accurate than their "news" stories? Why would the simple association with Gallup suddenly make this thing trustworthy.

It appears to me that at least CNN and USA Today are exploiting that most dangerous facet of Amerikan Sheeple Logic: If it's on TV, it must be true.

:argh:
dbt

[Junkdrawer]

44. Fixed polls are required if you're to fix elections....

Simply fixing voting machines is not enough to throw elections - at least not in the long term. In order to control populations, it is necessary to produce the appearance that the election is a confirmation of the polls and vice versa. Most critical are the polls a week or less out from the vote.

And so in California, we see independent polls consistently showing Bustamante with a five to ten point lead over Schwarznegger, until the CNN/Gallop/USA Today poll the shows Schwarznegger with a handy 15 point lead. So now if Schwarznegger wins, hardly anyone will think twice about the new voting equipment.

I think this will be a feature of our election from here in: fairly honest polls most of the time and amazing changes in the polls a week out from the election - with the elections verifying the polls.

[gasperc]

45. Some poll breakdown, 63% is "probable" voters, only 55% indicate support

This USAToday/CNN/Gallup poll seems very dubious, I'm suspicious of the cross-section. All in all, democrats in CA should see what's happening to them but Rethugs have made Davis look radioactive. I get the feeling the voters just don't care, it doesn't matter etc. which may be Davis's kiss of death and what the Rethugs are counting on.

Recall Vote Among Subgroups
This is data from the galluppoll website

All data (except "Probable voter group" row) based on registered voters

Will Vote "Yes" to Recall Gray Davis

%

All registered voters
55

Probable voter group
63


Democrats
29

Independents
56

Republicans
85


Approve of Davis job performance
2

Disapprove of Davis job performance
79


Southland
59

Bay area
32

Rest of state
63

[Le Taz Hot]

46. This does NOT make sense

We've been working our hearts out here and the polls have shown, until now, that it is paying off. Further, I've spoken with several Republicans who say they are ashamed about this whole recall mess and they are voting "no." Now, all of a sudden, we're where we were 7 weeks ago? Something is VERY wrong here.

[Jack Rabbit]

48. I'm skeptical of this

Other recent polls have shown the recall issue tightening, but this poll looks like the figures haven't changes since August.

Bustamante didn't do himself any favors in the debate the other night. However, Arnold was worse. Arnold came off sophomoric, flippant and condescending towards women. In no way was it the performance of a one who is qualified to be governor of California.

[Aidoneus]

49. don't like the poll results? just wait a few days.

I think of the whole process as rather a way of shaping public opinion, rather than projecting it.. between the various agencies, these things have jumped around quite staggeringly within short periods.