What's Behind the New Iraq--Asia Times Online

[Gloria]

In the new World Media Watch, up now at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical
Tomorrow at Buzzflash.com


1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Apr 8, 2005

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GD08Ak04.html



The Roving Eye: WHAT’S BEHIND THE NEW IRAQ

By Pepe Escobar



It took more than nine weeks, fiery haggling and backroom deals for Iraq's politicians to compose a new government.

(SNIP)

It's emerging that the real meaty matters in Iraq - federalism, who gets oil-rich Kirkuk, and, crucially, what happens to the oil industry overall - will be settled by the constituent assembly. But two developments are ominous. The attribution of ministries for the "new" government once again will be sectarian. And every faction will remain armed to their teeth. The Kurds keep their independent peshmerga militia, and financed by Baghdad. The SCIRI keeps its Badr Brigades. The Da'wa Party also keeps its own militia. None of these will answer to Baghdad - which mobilizes its own, US-trained Iraqi security forces. Cynically, one might add that outside the political process, the Sunni resistance will also keep its thousands of fighters.



Lebanonization?
It's too soon to perceive the substantial details of the Shi'ite-Kurd deal - between them they hold more than two-thirds of the 275 seats in parliament. But what's happened since January 30 is definitely not a good omen.

(SNIP)



The big question now is how the Shi'ites and Kurds will deal with marginalized Sunni Arabs - paying close attention to their political grievances or clobbering them with peshmergas, Badr Brigades and Iraqi security forces. It's politics or civil war.

[LynnTheDem]

1. After total failure of his first dozen excuses for invasion & occupation

excuses, bush should have dreamt up a better excuse than "spreading democracy". Then again, there's not much else to do but scrape the bottom of the barrel when one has reached the bottom of the barrel.

[reprobate]

2. As I recall, some of us predicted two years ago that this would happen.

That iraq would eventually degenerate into a three part state, with shia, sunni, and kurd having their own territories and armies. Next comes civil war, with US troops caught in the middle, and hated by all sides.

Way to go, George. BTW, where do you get your stupid pills?