STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 3 June

[ozymandius]

Friday June 3, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 232 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 166 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 229 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1286
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 2, 2005

Dow... 10,553.49 +3.62 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq... 2,097.80 +9.94 (+0.48%)
S&P 500... 1,204.29 +2.07 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.89% -0.02 (-0.44%)
Gold future... 424.80 +7.10 (+1.67%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

SOME CONCEPTS FROM A HOT GURU ON SELLING STOCKS SHORT

I recently read the pamphlet, “How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short”, by William O’Neil with Gil Morales. From the publishers of Investors Business Daily (IBD), this hot guru’s philosophy has proven to be successful over the last decade or so. While I take issue with whether their methods will prove to be entirely successful into the long-term future, there is no denying that these methods have been quite successful from the stock market’s breakout in 1982 to the present. For example, their technical/fundamental (ex. valuation) method would have had you in Google throughout its entire run-up, enjoying the tremendous gains while correct fundamental analysts correctly described how overvalued this stock was. While I also disagree with most of their editorial content, rejecting the entire paper including their technically-based trading method is somewhat analogous to rejecting Playboy Magazine because you don’t like their articles.

When you spot a hot guru, it pays to follow his advice. Since the stock market is in what IBD suggests is a “confirmed rally”, it may be too early to short stocks or take bearish positions. Yet there is some value in reviewing some concepts presented by the hot guru, with some current day chart examples. I would highly recommend reading this pamphlet and studying their chart illustrations in preparation for the next phase of the bear market. From a fundamental standpoint there is tremendous profit potential on the bear side of overvalued US stocks, and at some point valuation will matter again. I’ll discuss my interpretation of some of O’Neil’s concepts tonight.

-cut-

Hope Springs Eternal – Despair Takes Patience

O’Neil suggests that a way to establish when the stock may “break significantly” is when the 50-day passes below the 200-day moving average. It is at that time when the stock should be watched for an optimal entry point. Such an entry point may present itself as a high volume break of the stock decisively below the 50-day average. There are many concepts presented but few hard and fast rules. He also suggests that after topping and breaking sharply, a stock often attempts two to four rallies back through the 50-day moving average before the time when it breaks significantly. Following is a recent example, Lear Corp. (LEA).


-cut-

Today’s Market

(excerpt)

Today the option-granting technology generals, Cisco, Intel, Dell, and Oracle were up 1.2, 1.1, 0.74, and 1.0 percent, respectively. Yet the technology general that expenses options, Microsoft was down fractionally today. Today a SEC Chairman from the Silicon Valley state, California was appointed by the President after the existing chairman resigned yesterday. So is this what’s behind the Nasdaq rally? The rapidity which with this all happened leads me to believe that many people knew in advance.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.74 Change -0.01 (-0.01%)

Traders Long Dollars Going Into Payrolls

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1382&Itemid=39

US Dollar

After this past week’s extensive rally in the dollar, it is not surprising to see some profit taking ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Right now the consensus estimate is for 175,000 jobs to be added to the economy, compared to 274,000 jobs added the previous month. Yet, the actual range of estimates run the gamut of 115k to 240k. April was a great month for job growth, but such impressive gains will be hard to replicate this time around since we wont have the benefit of a number of factors that may have overstated the April release such as the Easter holiday shift, the five week survey period and distortions due to the Labor Bureau’s birth-death model. According to the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index released this morning, speculators in the market are extremely long dollars and short euros. Therefore, since bulls already have their long dollar positions on, a blockbuster 200k plus number should have a more limited reaction in the EURUSD than a sub-150k number. Based upon the most recent data that we have received today and over the past few weeks, 175k will be a tough hurdle to overcome. The latest Challenger report of planned job cuts in May jumped 42% compared to the previous month with layoffs in the technology sector increasing eight fold. Jobless claims also climbed to the highest levels in 9 weeks, bringing the four-week average of claims in May to 334k, compared to April’s five-week average of 325k. The last 2 times that average claims were approximately 334k, was back in March (336k) and January (330k), when we saw 146k and 124k non-farm payroll gains respectively. This suggests that May’s jobless claims data should coincide with a weaker number in payroll growth. As it appears, the risk is tilted more towards a downside surprise in payrolls and given the mix of current speculative positioning, bears could also be sitting tight and waiting for the results of NFPs to take profits on their shorts, which would result in a nice contra-trend move.

Euro

After all of the fan-fare surrounding the European Constitution and the end to the two most important votes that we have been focusing on for the past two weeks, the market has finally settled and shifted its attention away from politics and back to economics. Today, the European Central Bank ignored calls for a rate cut and instead chose to celebrate its one year anniversary of leaving rates unchanged by standing pat on interest rates once again. The central bank also cut growth projections to 1.4% for this year and 2.0% for next. Despite calls for rate cuts, Trichet said such move was “not an option” and that if the ECB was considering an interest rate cut, they would send some sort of message to the market that led people to believe that they are in fact preparing for a rate cut. Some press articles have interpreted his “not an option” as a hint of a possibility of an ECB rate cut since he used different wording this time around. However, in our opinion, playing with words is something the Fed is famous for, not the ECB. The latter likes to prepare a market for the imminent rather than shock it with surprises.

<snip>

Japanese Yen

Declining from an intra-session high of 108.86 hit late in the New York session, the Japanese yen gained some strength as market participants unwound long dollar positions in the overnight. Attributed to the shortfall looks to be a lone tepid economic data release as well as a key technical resistance level, with most speculating the influence of the latter as being greater. The monetary base report for the month of May showed a 2.2 percent increase in the supply of money as many economists expected a 2.5 percent rise. Although approximately in line with the consensus, the recent reporting shows that deflationary conditions continue to persist in the world’s second largest economy, further quelling any rate speculation. Last month’s supply pool rose 3 percent, indicating a slight contraction. As a result of the lackluster evidence and with no further releases scheduled for the week, attention will be placed on next week’s flurry of data. Most importantly, yen bulls will desire confirmation of the previously positive eco figures through CAPEX and consumer spending reports.

...more...

May Non-Farm Payrolls Outlook

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1381&Itemid=39

In less than 24 hours, we are expecting the non-farm payrolls report for the month of May. Right now the consensus estimate is for 175,000 jobs to be added to the economy, compared to 274,000 jobs added the previous month. Yet, the range of estimates run the gamut of 115k to 240k. April was a great month for job growth, but such impressive gains will be hard to replicate this time around since we won't have the benefit of a number of factors that may have overstated the April release such as the Easter holiday shift, the five week survey period and distortions due to the Labor Bureau’s birth-death model. According to the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index released this morning, speculators in the market are extremely long dollars and short euros. Therefore, since bulls already have their long dollar positions, a blockbuster 200k plus number should have a more limited reaction in the EURUSD than a sub-150k number.

Based upon the most recent data that we have received today and over the past few weeks, 175k will be a tough hurdle to overcome:

Layoffs Rise 42% in May: The latest Challenger report of planned job cuts in May jumped 42% compared to the previous month with layoffs in the technology sector increasing eight fold. This follows the sharp dip to five year lows in job reductions that we saw the previous month. It will be interesting to see if this shift in trend supports a similar directional change in payrolls. According to John Challenger, the CEO of the consulting group that releases the report, "with so many question marks in this economy, employers appear to be in a holding pattern.” He adds that, "more companies are retaining their workers, but they seem reluctant to add workers." We would not be surprised if this really is true, since the combination of high input costs, weak European demand and mixed economic data could entice employers to be a bit more conservative with their hiring plans.

Jobless Claims Coincides With Weaker Payrolls: Including today’s jobless claims report, the four-week average of claims in May is 334k, compared to April’s five week average of 325k. The last 2 times that average claims were approximately 334k, was back in March (336k) and January (330k), when we saw 146k and 124k non-farm payroll gains respectively. This suggests that May’s jobless claims data should coincide with a weaker number in payroll growth.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

15. Dollar remains soft after weak jobs growth data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.3603929051-836241585&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar remained at weak levels Friday after news that only 78,000 jobs were added in May, the weakest increase in nearly two years. The MarketWatch forecast, based on a poll of economists, was for an increase of 186,000. The weak increase disappointed dollar proponents who had hoped for a large rise to encourage the Fed to embark on a more vigorous program of rate hikes. Average hourly wages increased 3 cents, or 0.2%, to $16.03 in May. Wages are up 2.6% in the past year. In recent trades the euro was up 0.1% at $1.2282 and the dollar down 0.5% at 107.72 yen.

[UpInArms]

29. a peek at the sinking buck

Last trade 87.56 Change -0.19 (-0.22%)

Settle 87.75 Settle Time 23:36

Open 87.74 Previous Close 87.75

High 88.03 Low 87.37

Last tick: 2005-06-03 09:00:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

43. I see they've been able to build up a nice buffer zone over the past

few weeks for the buck to fall from.
Postponed the inevitable danger zone of 80?

[UpInArms]

45. that's what I've been thinking

- and where have you been? We've missed you!

:pals:

[ozymandius]

52. What UIA said.

Where ya been? Good to see you back.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

57. Thanks UIA and Ozy - it's nice to be missed. It's just been a hectic

couple of weeks here. Should tend back to normal after Monday when my aunt and uncle head back home to FL. We've also been busy getting the F-i-L's place on the market. Have had a few lookers, but no takers yet.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

3. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Jun 3	8:30 AM		Average Workweek	May	-	33.8	33.8	33.9	-	
Jun 3	8:30 AM		Hourly Earnings		May	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	-	
Jun 3	8:30 AM		Nonfarm Payrolls	May	-	185K	175K	274K	-	
Jun 3	8:30 AM		Unemployment Rate	May	-	5.2%	5.2%	5.2%	-	
Jun 3	10:00 AM	ISM Services		May	-	61.0	60.0	61.7	-

[UpInArms]

9. ALERT: U.S. May nonfarm payrolls up lower-than-expected 78,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={6C65C4E8-7940-43DD-B202-3B0AF52BA6E2}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Hiring in the United States slowed in May to weakest in nearly two years, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 78,000, the lowest since August 2003, according to a survey of business establishments. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.1% from 5.2%, based on a separate household survey. It's the lowest unemployment rate since September 2001. Economists were expecting much stronger job growth of 186,000. Average hourly wages increased 3 cents, or 0.2%, to $16.03 in May. The average workweek was unchanged at a revised 33.8 hours. Total hours worked in the economy increased 0.1%. Factory jobs dropped by 7,000, while service-sector jobs increased by 64,000.

[UpInArms]

10. 8:30 EST Reports

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY TOTAL HOURS WORKED RISES 0.1%

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. PAYROLL GAINS SEEN IN HEALTH CARE, CONSTRUCTION

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY PAYROLLS WEAKEST SINCE AUG. 2003

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. MARCH, APRIL NONFARM PAYROLLS REVISED DOWN 24,000

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY FACTORY JOBS FALL 7,000

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY AVERAGE WORKWEEK REMAINS AT 33.8

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES RISE 0.2%

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 5.1%

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 78,000 VS 186,000 EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

40. May ISM FALLS to 58.5% - Below concensus of 60%

10:01am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY ISM SERVICES PRICES PAID 57.9% VS. 62.9% APRIL

10:00am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY ISM NONMANUFACTURING 58.5% VS. 61.7% APRIL

10:01am 06/03/05 U.S. MAY ISM SERVICES NEW ORDERS UP TO 59.7 VS. 58.8%

(added details on edit)

[UpInArms]

48. Economic Report: U.S. May ISM services index slows to 2-year low

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B26A1F1FE%2D9A0E%2D48E1%2DB78B%2DE2F2722D131C%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Activity in the U.S. nonmanufacturing sectors slowed in May but remained robust, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday.

The ISM nonmanufacturing sentiment index fell to 58.5% from 61.7% in April. It's the lowest level since May 2003.

The ISM services index has been above the break-even 50% mark for 26 months.

Economists expected a drop to 60.3%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Of 17 industries, 11 were growing in May, five were steady and one was contracting. Read the full report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. Real estate overexposure tops among investing mistakes

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={319B3B3D-4785-4FB3-8165-6201AF1B2FD1}&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Many investors are overloading on real estate the same way they stampeded into tech stocks during the late 1990s, said Thomas A. Muldowney, managing director of Savant Capital Management in Rockford, Ill.

In some markets, the speculation amounts to a bubble, he said. "People are doing exactly the opposite of what they're supposed to do: They're supposed to buy something when it's low and sell high when there's a gain."

"There's a huge difference between individually owned real estate and real estate that would be held as part of a diversified investment portfolio. If you buy an individual piece of real estate, your chances of overallocating to real estate are enormous."

Ideally, investors should allocate about 5% to real estate investment trusts, or REITs, and divide the rest among domestic and international large company stocks, small company, large company value, small company value and emerging markets, he said.

<snip>

Investors who catch themselves saying "It will never change" or "This time is different" need to remember that home prices declined in the early 1980s after a run-up in the late 70s that followed a stock market crash earlier in the decade, Muldowney said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. Foreclosure scammers prey on homeowners' misfortune

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B619BADE1%2D31B9%2D4D14%2DBD0A%2DB560EA09B02F%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- For homeowners facing foreclosure, there's nothing like the relief of a knock at the door from a friendly face promising to help.

But anecdotal evidence suggests an increasing number of those faces are anything but friendly, and more homeowners are paying steep fees for no help at all, or in the worst cases, losing their homes entirely.

Billboards plastered to light posts in hot housing markets nationwide tout this help as foreclosure "rescue." But it's more like a nightmare and evidence suggests more homeowners are experiencing it, according to a report released Thursday by the National Consumer Law Center, a consumer advocacy group, that detailed such scams.

Lawyers nationwide cite a growing number of calls from homeowners who paid steep fees or lost their homes after foreclosure scammers roped them in, according to the report.

One popular ruse has the homeowner signing his house over to the scam artist, with the promise of being able to stay on as a renter and buy the house back in a few years. But that buy-back is usually at an undisclosed and exorbitant price.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Motorola begins 250 layoffs amid automakers' cutbacks

http://www.chicagotribune.com/technology/chi-0506030174jun03,1,6579818.story?coll=chi-techtopheds-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true

Motorola Inc. this week began laying off up to 250 workers in its automotive business, a reaction to the big slump facing domestic automakers.

Hard times at Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. have taken their toll on parts suppliers throughout the country, helping to force three into bankruptcy this year.

The auto industry is a core Motorola business but is small compared to the firm's wireless telephone operations. About 5,000 of Schaumburg-based Motorola's roughly 68,000 employees worldwide are in automotive electronics.

<snip>

General Motors and Ford are Motorola's two biggest automotive customers. Both are hurting, their bond ratings reduced to junk status.

GM posted its biggest quarterly loss in 13 years this spring and said it would cut production 10 percent for the second quarter. Ford, meanwhile, lowered its production plans by 2.2 percent.

"Definitely, the production cuts at Ford and GM are hurting their suppliers," said Efraim Levy, an analyst at Standard & Poor's in New York. "Whatever part you are making for them, less vehicles means less parts. It has a ripple effect."

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. LTX sees Q4 loss of 9-12c vs Wall St. est. 19c (check out the sales drop)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.3457653472-836240684&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- LTX Corp. (LTXX) Friday reported a third-quarter loss of $45.7 million, or 75 cents a share, down from a year-ago profit of $4.3 million, or 7 cents a share. The latest results include restructuring and asset impairment charges of $28.6 million, or 47 cents a share. Sales dropped in the latest three months to $25.5 million from $70.3 million in the same period a year earlier]. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a loss of 27 cents a share in the April period on revenue of $26.7 million. The Westwood, Mass., chip testing equipment company said it expects to lower its breakeven point to $46 million by the end of the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, LTX forecast a loss of 9 to 12 cents a share in the fourth quarter on revenue ranging from $37.5 million to $39.5 million. Wall Street's current consensus estimate is for a loss of 19 cents a share in the July quarter on revenue of $32.5 million. Also, after Thursday's closing bell, the company secured a five-year term loan for $60 million from SVB Financial Group's (SIVB) Silicon Valley Bank. The stock closed Thursday at $5.11, up 22 cents.

[UpInArms]

8. JPM: "trading results for the upcoming second quarter would be terrible"

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.3463826042-836240719&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Analysts at Merrill Lynch on Friday trimmed their earnings estimate for J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) after the company cautioned earlier this week that its trading results for the upcoming second quarter would be terrible. Merrill now expects J.P. Morgan to earn 61 cents a share, down from the previous estimate of 72 cents per share. "While it is a difficult quarter industry-wide, things appear to have been particularly messy at J.P. Morgan," the analysts said. Morgan shares fell 2 cents to close at $35.74.

[HughBeaumont]

11. 78,000 jobs, but the fake UR drops to 5.1%

How is it that we didn't even cover the job churn this month (you need at least 150000 new jobs created each month), which is typical of this sorry admin's economic performance, but that UR keeps dropping? And why do they never show the correct (U6) rate? Probably because it would make Bunnypants look worse than he already is.

[UpInArms]

12. long-term unemployment is way up - and those people are dropped

from the unemployment rolls after their benefits run dry.

These numbers are so cooked as to be irrelevant.

[cthrumatrix]

16. the corporate media refuse to let "truth" enter the "spin zone"

CNBC and this admin are "managing the market" .... everything must be kept "in line" whne you have budget and trade deficits of the US.

The wrong "perception" (or truth slips out) and you have a problem.

[Roland99]

69. U6 shows to have dropped in May to 8.9%

[UpInArms]

13. Wall Street LOVES a shrinking workforce

8:35am 06/03/05 JUNE DOW INDUSTRIALS UP 6 AT 10,565

8:34am 06/03/05 U.S. STOCK FUTURES ERASE LOSSES TO TURN HIGHER

8:35am 06/03/05 JUNE S&P 500 FUTURES UP 0.90 AT 1,206.20

8:35am 06/03/05 JUNE NASDAQ 100 FUTURES UP 2.00 AT 1,573.50

My personal advice to each and every person that has lost their jobs under this mal-administration is to sell every stock you own and tell them to shove it!

:argh:

[UpInArms]

14. Futures higher after payrolls data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B980D5B17%2D999C%2D4944%2D9022%2D01731556709C%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Stock market futures rose Friday after payrolls expanded far less than predicted during May, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

S&P 500 futures rose 1 point and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 3.5 points after non-farm payrolls expanded just 78,000 in May.

Economists had predicted, on average, that U.S. payrolls grew by 186,000 in May, close to the average monthly gain over the past six months.

The euro surged to as high as $1.2341 after the news but came back to $1.2271.

Crude-oil futures moved higher in early electronic trading, topping $54 a barrel.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Economy adds 78,000 jobs in May, far fewer than forecast

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B42976BD0%2D2A7E%2D4F63%2D8001%2D04A0975EC9B2%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

"If the stock market closes higher today based on today's job number it will be a repeat performance of Wednesday when it rallied after a disappointing manufacturing report," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC.

"The bottom line is that investors appear to be enthusiastic about the fact that the Fed is close to the end of its rate tightening cycle."

Sheldon said stocks, on a historical basis, have done fairly well in the three-month period leading up to the end of rate hike cycle and in the twelve months that follow. "But clearly the 78,000 jobs created is disappointing."

...more...

Tell these freakin' Wall Street idiots what you think. Talk with your wallet and walk out the door.

[UpInArms]

17. Growing Gap between the Haves and the Have-Nots

FedEx grants $66M in options to executives

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.3617915509-836241638&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - FedEx Corp. (FDX) granted its Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Frederick W. Smith 625,000 stock options on June 1 with an exercise price of $89.70 each, according to a federal filing late Thursday. David J. Bronczek, head of FedEx Express, and other officers were granted a total of 114,750 options at the same price. Kenneth Masterson, the company's former general counsel, retired June 1 and entered into a two-year consulting agreement that includes tickets to Memphis Grizzlies games, a $65,000 golf club membership and a gift from FedEx of a $28,347 John Deere tractor (DE) . Shares of FedEx rose $1.06 to $91.25 Thursday.

[UpInArms]

18. Before the Report the "Economists: Predicted: Solid job growth expected in

Solid job growth expected in May

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=mktwsnap&guid=%7BE9927616-5D32-4565-B946-36203CB0E211%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy continued to add a significant number of new jobs in May, economists believe.

<snip>

Unlike earlier in the expansion when the economy was growing with no net job growth, employment is now a reassuringly strong and steady part of the economy.

"The employment data, which are the first comprehensive measure of activity in May, should be reassuring to the Fed, confirming that the economy and labor market have plenty of self-sustaining momentum," said Drew Matus and Joseph Abate, economists for Lehman Bros.

<snip>

Lehman Bros. is forecasting payroll gains of 225,000, on the high side of the 36 forecasts in the MarketWatch survey. The range of forecasts runs from 140,000 to 250,000.

On the other side, Mike Englund of Action Economics is forecasting a more modest 165,000 gain in payrolls.

"We expect the big theme in May to be payback following the outsized gain in April, which may have been exacerbated by the five-week survey period," Englund said. "Nonetheless, data in line with our forecast would imply that the labor market continues to post healthy growth."

...more...

These STUPID sacks of crap need to lose their freakin' jobs since they obviously never see anywhere other than that very dark place that their heads reside (up their ...es)

:argh:

[cthrumatrix]

20. it's all managed.... the market cannot afford "high interest rates"

it would pop the "goldie locks" housing market.

[UpInArms]

22. that stupid bubble created by this mal-administration

needs to go "pop" since most of those stupid valuations are based on speculation and owned by REITs and any freakin' fool that thinks they can afford to live in a house that they are only paying interest on needs to go and rent - rents are lower than the price of purchase - that goes to show that the valuations are completely skewed.

:argh:

[Maeve]

25. "Reassuringly strong" except when it isn't

Just who is "reassured" by the reality isn't made clear...

[UpInArms]

30. the sleeping sheep, of course

[UpInArms]

19. 10-Year Treasury Bond yield FALLS to 3.826%

8:53am 06/03/05 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 3.826%

Hey Ho Julie!

Help me out here will you?

[Francine Frensky]

26. What's your take on that??

I read an article in either the NYTimes or USA today (can't remember which, sorry) over the weekend that said the falling 10-year rates, while perplexing, were because of the increased demand for the bonds coming mainly from investors outside the US. I'm trying to figure that out....why would those outside the US buy a lower rate, given our falling dollar? Is this another way to say it's the Chinese trying to keep us afloat?? Or is someone else buying, but they won't say who?

[UpInArms]

28. The Pirates of the Carribean

http://blog.mises.org/blog/archives/003362.asp

This much is clear: the massive buildup of debt through the system of fiat money and fractional reserve banking with a central banking as the money printer of last resort cannot conceivably be paid off. It will have to be defaulted in one way or another: either through an outright (nominal) default, or by inflating the dollar down to zero value. But which way? This "inflation-deflation debate" has been going on for the last few years among hard money advocates and financial contrarians.

The system has been sustained for a time through the efforts of a dollar-buying cartel consisting mainly of China, Japan, and Korea, and to a lesser extent smaller Asian nations. But as Roubini, Duncan, and other have argued, we are close to the breaking point because the ability of foreign banks to absorb more dollar-denominated debt is approaching. China and Japan cannot borrow enough domestically to purchase the volume of debt that would be required to fund US debt growth, so they must instead print money in their own currency to make up the difference, as fact that even Benjamin "Helicpoter" Bernanke acknowledges.

There will come a fateful day when the rest of the world cannot fund continuing growth of US debt. For any other country than the US, this day would have come long ago, but we enjoy the luxury of being able to print the world's reserve currency. However, even this advantage can only postpone the inevitable crisis.

There are visible signs that the system is starting to crack. The central banks of India, China, and Japan have recently started public discussio of "diversifying out of dollar reserves". (Reuters: Asian Foreign Exchange Reserves: A $2.46 Trillion Question, China says it won't change dollar's share in its foreign exchange reserves, Reuters: Asian banks reducing share of U.S. dollar deposits, BIS reports, Bloomberg - China to keep yuan's peg to dollar for 'relatively long time', Bloomberg: Koizumi Says Japan Needs to Mull Diversifying Reserves, Korea Times - You Can't Bet Bottom Dollar).

When the day of reckoning comes, the Fed and the US Treasury will face a choice: to allow the system to collapse, including default on US Treasury Bonds, or to print money and become the buyer of last resort, in essence monetizing the outstanding debt with newly printed or created money. The former choice would, to be sure, put an end to the dollar as the world's reserve asset. After a massive deflation that would cleanse the mal-investments of the Greenspan period, the US could perhaps reemerge as a somewhat respectable minor nation with a smaller but more sound currency and a national aversion to debt, much as happened after the Great Depression. The monetization option, on the other hand, would just as surely destroy the dollar only through hyper-inflation.

...more...

[KoKo]

61. From Link: Kirby is implying that we are buying our own Treasuries?

Hello Marketeers! :hi:

Did I read this correctly? :wow:

snip:

Rob Kirby has written in a recent essay Pirates of the Carribbean that, as the long-suffering members of the US debt crack dealers are tiring, Carribean hedge funds are starting to show up as major purchases of US Treasury debt. You can read the article for details, but the main thrust of it is that the numbers don't add up. Hedge funds cannot be buying as much debt as would be needed to make the balance sheet add up, and if they were they would be losing staggering amounts of money as long rates rise.. The only player in the game with the capacity to absorb the scale of loses is the central bank. Kirby writes: "One might surmise that a printing press would be required to come up with that kind of cash on such short notice, ehhh?"

[54anickel]

66. Heh-heh, yep that would be old Ben hard at work...eom

[Zynx]

35. Anyone who buys bonds at those rates is out of their mind.

If long rates go up to a reasonable level, people holding bonds at these rates will get destroyed.

[JNelson6563]

55. It's like a river flowing

The cash is flowing like a raging river into Treasuries. Holy cow!! They are getting more expensive by the minute!

I'd wager Bush's appointee to the SEC is helping to fan these flames. Who wants to invest in the Market when the proposed head honcho is anti-investor?

People would rather invest in "worthless paper" (as the simian described US Treasury notes) than in a henhouse guarded by a fox.

The only surprise is that the markets aren't dropping in a big way. It seems to me that when such big money flows into Treasuries, it cuts into Market inflows. While the Markets aren't rocking, they aren't diving either.


Of course there's the PPT to consider.... ;-)

Hope it's all good with you Marketeers! I check in pretty regularly and always enjoy the info and insights. Thanks for taking the time to post all the great stuff. IMO this thread is one of THE best features of DU.

Cheers-
Julie

[54anickel]

62. GACK!! The SEC appointee, another Ayn Rand devotee....

Bush S.E.C. Pick Is Seen as Friend to Corporations

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/03/business/03cox.html?

President Bush, hearing complaints about Mr. Donaldson's record from across the business spectrum, responded on Thursday by nominating Representative Christopher Cox, a conservative Republican from California, as a successor whose loyalties seem clear. And unlike the Supreme Court, where Justice Souter has a lifetime appointment, the S.E.C. provides the White House with an immediate opportunity to tip the balance of the five-person commission in a more favorable direction.

Mr. Cox - a devoted student of Ayn Rand, the high priestess of unfettered capitalism - has a long record in the House of promoting the agenda of business interests that are a cornerstone of the Republican Party's political and financial support.

A major recipient of contributions from business groups, the accounting profession and Silicon Valley, he has fought against accounting rules that would give less favorable treatment to corporate mergers and executive stock options. He opposes taxes on dividends and capital gains. And he helped to steer through the House a bill making investor lawsuits more difficult.

That measure, which Congress adopted over President Bill Clinton's veto, was hailed by business groups, which say it has reduced costly and frivolous cases.

It has also been criticized by consumer and investor organizations. They say its adoption in 1995 contributed to an unaccountable climate that fostered the big accounting scandals at companies like Enron and WorldCom a few years later.

Mr. Cox's legislative record was cited on Thursday by President Bush as a primary qualification.

more....


Look at that expression on the Chimp's face, like the cat that just ate the canary. Evil, just simply evil...

[UpInArms]

21. May job data show U.S. growth slowing: PNC's Hoffman

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.3724859606-836242188&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The May unemployment report shows that the U.S. economy is slowing to about a 3.0% GDP annualized growth rate in the second quarter, said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services Group. "It is not anything dramatic, but it is a continued slowdown from something close to 4% in the latter half of last year," Hoffman said in a telephone interview Friday shortly after the Labor Department released the May job data that showed a surprisingly weak 78,000 jobs were created in May. The Federal Reserve will hike rates by a quarter-percentage point in June, but then pause in August to see if the economy will continue to slow in the second half of the year or level off and regain momentum, Hoffman said. "It is time for the Fed to step back and assess what happens in the summer quarter," Hoffman said.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Zynx]

32. The Euro has gotten hammered in the last month.

That's largely because of our higher interest rates and our higher economic growth rate.

[Name removed]

53. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Zynx]

85. No this started to happen well before then.

[54anickel]

34. Here's Auerback's take on a French "non" from April 25 -

edit to update link to Prudent Bear archive (found it)

A French "Non" is Better for the Euro

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=International+Perspective&content_idx=42560

It’s becoming the big buzz in the forex markets: the French will vote No on the May 29th referendum to ratify the European Union’s new constitution and the Dutch will swiftly follow in their footsteps. The prospects for all future EU reforms – economic, budgetary or otherwise – will disappear. The euro will collapse.

Is this the way it will all play out?

It is useful to note that the fall in support for the constitution reflects a multiplicity of differing, and often contradictory, viewpoints. These range from sovereignist groups which have traditionally opposed the EU project (approximately 30 per cent of the French population), to those who have historically supported moves to an ever closer political union, but who object to this particular document on the grounds that it reflects the triumph of decentralized “Anglo-Saxon liberalism”, as opposed to a final march to a genuine “United States of Europe”, which entrenches Euroland’s unique social market economy.

We would argue that if there is a common thread in the opposition mobilising against the new constitution, it is not so much a protest against UK-style economic liberalism per se as it is the diminishing sense of national identity and control at the heart of the nation state as the EU has become more federalised; at the core, these latest polls in both France and the Netherlands (the latter historically a very strong supporter of the EU) suggest a profound disenchantment with the European Union’s technocratic elites. The European Union and its attendant institutions remain characterised by a huge democratic deficit, which has led to an increasing sense of political alienation. Such alientation continues to manifest itself during those limited occasions when the national electorates actually have had a chance to express themselves as in the impending French and Dutch constitutional referendums.

snip>

In the event that France rejects the constitution next month, euro enthusiasts should hold their breath and desist from the inevitable doom-mongering that will almost certainly follow. Rather, they should embrace the resultant opportunity because the rejection may provide necessary breathing space to implement many of the reforms we have previously advocated to make the currency zone a more viable functioning alternative to the dollar. Sweden, Britain, and Denmark – the three current non-euro members of the EU- have generally enjoyed higher growth and lower unemployment, as well as having many more economic tools at their disposal to cope with recession, particularly due to the absence of stability pact constraints, which have exacerbated underlying recessionary pressures within the euro-zone. Why give these benefits up in the absence of genuine reform of Europe’s current monetary arrangements? Surely the euro-zone countries should now use the reality of a multi-speed Europe to get their own respective economic houses in order – for their own sakes as well as those of potential future entrants, who will more attracted by the clear benefits of a larger, looser, but better functioning EU, as opposed to the current rigid, centralised straitjacket, which appears to act on the basis of improvisation and short term political expediency, and is doing nothing but engendering more disillusionment with the whole European project.

more...

[UpInArms]

27. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Still shaping up to be a rather subdued start for the cash market, as futures indications trade just below fair value... With little in the way of corporate news, it appears ongoing analysis of the May payrolls data and whether or not the Fed will maintain its pace of rate hikes will remain today's focal point and dictate the tone of trading throughout the session

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures indications continue to fluctuate around the unchanged mark following the mixed employment report, pointing to a lackluster open for the cash market... However, falling Treasury yields, which make stock valuations more attractive relative to bonds, could provide an early floor of buying support for equities

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures trade pulls back slightly following jobs report, suggesting a lower open for the indices... Nonfarm payrolls checked in at 78K, well below forecasts of 175K, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% (from 5.2%) and hourly earnings matched an expected 0.2% rise versus a prior 0.3% increase... Bonds, which were relatively unchanged before the release, have surged as the 10-yr note is up 20 ticks to yield 3.82%

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a flat to slightly lower open for the cash market as investors await employment data...

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1554.75. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If June extends this spring's rally, the February high crossing at 1574.50 then the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1588.36 are the next upside targets. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 1540 would signal that the short covering rally off April's low has come to an end. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 0.50 pts. at 1571 as of 5:45 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1196.55. If June extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the March-April decline crossing at 1209.52 is the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 1191.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.50 pts. at 1203.80 as of 5:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

31. 9:34 EST markets are open

Dow 10,537.90 -15.59 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,093.38 -4.42 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,202.75 -1.54 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 3.835 -0.55 (-1.41%)

NYSE Volume 39,357,000
Nasdaq Volume 67,613,000

[ozymandius]

36. This kind of blather makes me want to vomit.

9:40AM: Market opens slightly lower as investors digest mixed employment data... While May nonfarm payrolls checked in at 78K, roughly half of the 175K expected and well below last month's surprising read of 274K, the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% - its lowest level since Sept. 2001...

However, even though the May payrolls data - the smallest gain since Aug. 2003 - are consistent with expectations of 3.0% real GDP growth, it appears investors have so far taken a cautious stance early on as to whether or not slower economic growth overall will signal that the Fed is reaching the end of its tightening cycle... Separately, May ISM Services (consensus 60.0) will be released at 10:00 ET...

I guess one is not unemployed if your job is looking for a job. :silly:

[UpInArms]

38. March/April jobs were revised DOWN 24,000

from my post #10

8:30am 06/03/05 U.S. MARCH, APRIL NONFARM PAYROLLS REVISED DOWN 24,000

:argh:

[UpInArms]

37. 9:48 EST numbers and blather (mixed)

Dow 10,550.75 -2.74 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,095.73 -2.07 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,205.09 +0.80 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 3.832 -0.58 (-1.49%)

NYSE Volume 124,358,000
Nasdaq Volume 159,497,000

9:40AM: Market opens slightly lower as investors digest mixed employment data... While May nonfarm payrolls checked in at 78K, roughly half of the 175K expected and well below last month's surprising read of 274K, the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% - its lowest level since Sept. 2001...

However, even though the May payrolls data - the smallest gain since Aug. 2003 - are consistent with expectations of 3.0% real GDP growth, it appears investors have so far taken a cautious stance early on as to whether or not slower economic growth overall will signal that the Fed is reaching the end of its tightening cycle... Separately, May ISM Services (consensus 60.0) will be released at 10:00 ET...

[Doctor_J]

33. I don't usually make recommendations, and

this is probably old news, but a year ago my guy put me in an "Inflation Plus" MF, and it's made 9% since then. Since the Fed seems loathe to do anything sensible (e. g. interest rate hikes) that might reflect badly on Der Fuhrer, it's probably still going to be a winner for awhile. Our experts here should feel free to comment.

[UpInArms]

39. Blathering Fed Head Appears to Play "Whack-a-Mole"

Fed's Gramlich: No answer for rate conundrum

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.4106166782-836244534&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board Gov. Edward Gramlich said Friday that investors will "just have to stay tuned" to learn why long-term interest rates continue to fall in the face of short-term rate hikes. "There are a number of theories," Gramlich told a gathering of journalists. "You'd like to think that when you raise short-term rates you know what long-term rates are going to do. We like to feel we know how the economy works," he said. "But I have to say I don't know what's going on there." In a question-and-answer session with reporters, Gramlich gave no indication of future Fed moves but did say monetary policy remains focused on maintaining "price stability and high employment."

9:51am 06/03/05 GRAMLICH GIVES FEW CLUES ON FUTURE RATE HIKES

9:49am 06/03/05 FED'S GRAMLICH: NO ANSWER TO RATE CONUNDRUM

9:50am 06/03/05 GRAMLICH: FED STILL FOCUSED ON INFLATION, GROWTH

[54anickel]

42. Oh, now those are comforting words from a Fed official -

"But I have to say I don't know what's going on there."


How's that line go in that Badfinger old song...

...Dooo-oo-oo-oo, fool and his (OUR!!!) money.
Sonny if you want it, here it is,
Come and get it,
But you better hurry 'cos it's going fast....

[UpInArms]

44. great song, 54anickel!

You better hurry 'cause

it's going fast!

:hummingnoise:

[54anickel]

46. They have no idea what makes the Greenspin monster tick? That's

BS and we all know it - they know what's causing it - they just have no idea what to do about it without creating havoc in the system.

[54anickel]

56. Basking in Nirvana: The Asset Mania

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=43564

snip>

I believe the stock market has followed the above general description from the late 1990s to the present. It seems to me we are participants in a very long-term trend change that is taking years to play out. The general uptrend in stock averages began in 1982 and, with some price setbacks intervening, continued until 2000. The DOW Industrials first broached 10,000 in 1999 and has meandered around that level for several years. Being in the middle of this trend change obscures its outlines and veils its effects.

Following the devastation of stock values during 2000 to 2002, the mania was transferred by our Federal Reserve and willing market participants to the property markets. The Fed could not have been so ignorant as to fail to understand what they were doing. The Fed’s exceedingly low interest rates had the effects of making it unwise to save while providing an incentive to borrow. And borrow we did! During the past few years, consumer debt has increased about twice as fast as consumer incomes. Consumer debt in comparison to GDP is larger than it has been in many decades while required consumer debt payment amounts are near historical highs. In the last four years, according to Freddie Mac, consumers have taken about $700 billion of cash out of their home values during financings. Without this indulgence, abetted by the Federal Reserve, the recovery in consumer spending would have been much weaker.

I have seen these historically extreme market activities manifested among community banks. It is accepted and commonplace for community banks to make loans of 95% to 100%, and sometimes more, of market value. The Federal Reserve’s extremely easy money policy following the stock market decline has fostered these market activities and mitigated their effects. An appraiser in the market where our bank is located recently told me she has been asked several times to appraise a property at a specific value in order to be adequate to cover the loan request. A ‘market value” derived under such duress then confirms a spurious sale price which, in turn, becomes a “comparable” for the next appraisal.

Credit practices, which would have astonished prudent lenders fifteen years ago, have become commonplace in small town America. Homes which are for sale advertise “no money down” on the front yard for sale sign. Why do borrowers and lenders believe 100% financing is reasonable? They are assuming property prices will continue to rise because most everyone they know is assuming the same thing. The herding impulse exerts a strong pull.

more...

[UpInArms]

41. 10:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,523.64 -29.85 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,091.03 -6.77 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,202.75 -1.54 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 3.826 -0.64 (-1.65%)

NYSE Volume 221,424,000
Nasdaq Volume 264,372,000

10:00AM: Equities still on the defensive but the bulk of sector leadership remains mixed... Technology has paced the way lower due in part to a 4.2% sell-off in shares of Apple Computer (AAPL 38.37 -1.67), which has reportedly settled an iPod battery suit that could cost as much as $100 mln... Health Care has also been influential leader to the downside, amid ongoing weakness in Drug and Biotech while weakness in Banks and Insurance have weighed on Financial... Energy, however, has traded higher, benefiting from a rebound in oil prices...

Also taking advantage of dollar weakness has been the Materials sector while interest-rate sensitive areas like Utilities and Homebuilding have benefited from falling bond yields... Consumer Discretionary has also shown relative strength amid decent follow-through buying interest in Retail... NYSE Adv/Dec 1488/1107, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1088/1252

[ozymandius]

50. uglier at 10:25

Dow 10,507.75 -45.74 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,083.26 -14.54 (-0.69%)
S&P 500 1,200.52 -3.77 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 38.31 -0.59 (-1.52%)

NYSE Volume 327,159,000
Nasdaq Volume 388,120,000

[UpInArms]

54. Good Morning, Ozy!

I'm going to be off and running in a few minutes - there we go reaching for that shiny coin again :D

I'll have to return much later and lurk through the thread, but I will definitely be curious if sanity sinks into any of the soma-addled brains.

Have a Great Weekend and I'll see you Monday! :hi:

[ozymandius]

64. Good morning UIA.

Thanks for the heads-up. I'll try to up my posting content today during your absence. Goodness knows that we need injections of sanity to cope with the sanity deficit at the marketplace.

See you later,

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

47. Prudential says weak jobs growth not bad for stocks

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.4253879977-836245283&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Prudential chief investment strategist Ed Keon said the weaker-than-expected May job growth data was not at all negative for stocks. He feels the key number within the report is not the jobs added but the price of labor, which is going up, but only slightly, and should not put any downward pressure on profits anytime soon. The U.S. Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls grew by 78,000 in May, the lowest since job expansion began in August 2003, while average hourly earnings increased 0.2%. In addition, he feels the rise in bonds, and the subsequent drop in bond yields makes stocks look very cheap when compared with their bonds and real estate. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ($TNX) was last down 0.060 percentage points at 3.830% and hit a 14-month low of 3.803% in intraday trading, the lowest yield seen since late-March 2004. "With a 3.8% 10-year bond, a dividend yield of 1.8% on the S&P 500, and with another 3.7% or 3.8% of stocks' earnings reflected in retained earnings rather than just what is paid out in dividends, stocks look like a tremendous buy here," Keon said. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) was last down 1.74 points at 1,202.55.

In an honest moment, Enron's former President Jeffrey Skilling summed it
up: "You must cut costs ruthlessly by 50 to 60 percent. Depopulate. Get rid
of people. They gum up the works."

http://www.cpa.org.au/garchve5/1082en.html

[ozymandius]

67. Employees are carrion. Corporations are fat vultures.

Does that about sum it up?

[UpInArms]

49. Crude tops $54, supported by heating oil

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.4283255903-836245494&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- The price of July-dated crude futures rose 52 cents to $54.15 a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July heating oil rose 1.98 cents to $1.562 a gallon. "Now as the 'fear' over gasoline supplies is fading, the next 'fear' is heating oil," said Kyle Cooper, an energy analyst at Citigroup, in a note to clients. "Middle distillate inventories in the U.S. are almost exactly equal to last year as of May 27, and they are 15.6 million barrels higher in Europe at the end of April. From fear to fear. Fact means little."

[UpInArms]

51. should be right after post #50 - 10:26 EST numbers

Dow 10,510.26 -43.23 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,083.17 -14.63 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,200.42 -3.87 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 3.828 -0.62 (-1.59%)

NYSE Volume 331,992,000
Nasdaq Volume 394,055,000

'Bye All :hi:

Have a great weekend!

[54anickel]

58. Gimme all my money... (Mogambo - didn't see him posted for the week yet)

sorry if I missed it and this is a dupe.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty060105.html

- The Treasury is back on a borrowing binge, and national debt rocketed up to $7.781 trillion. And the foreign central banks are back in the game, big time, as they soaked up an incredible $6.759 billion of US debt in the last week alone, stashing it directly at the Fed, bringing their total to $1.41 trillion.

- The cover of this week's issue of Barron's asks "Hedge Funds: Is The Party Over?" If they had taken a moment and asked The Mogambo, I could have told them that the answer is "no": The money that comes OUT of hedge funds has to go INTO something else, and as soon as it becomes clear that a lot of money is moving in to this new thing, whatever it is, then hedge funds will start piling into that, too.

Speaking of Barron's, I was poking around on the Economic Indicators page of their Market Laboratory section, and I noticed that Total Reserves in the banks is $44.5 billion. This is the money and cash equivalents that the banks have to keep on hand in case somebody comes storming into the bank, screaming "The Mogambo is right! We are going to be freaking killed with this insanely-stupid and suicidal monetary expansion of the Federal Reserve! Gimme all my money so that I can go buy gold and silver with it, and I mean right now!" You look up at the guy and say "Hmmm!" to yourself. Then you turn back to Barron's, and your gaze happens to fall on the figure for savings deposited in the banks, which is $4,786.6 billion, and suddenly your mind is sharpened! Your nostrils flare and you start to get really, really scared! This would mean (and I gulp as I say this because my mouth is dry and my heart is beating thumpa thumpa thumpa and all I want to do is run somewhere and hide), that reserves are now roughly 0.0093 of liabilities or, if you prefer, 0.93% of liabilities, which is, obviously less than one stinking percent -- one stinking percent! -- of even just the "savings" part of the banks' liabilities. This is a ridiculously-low, absurdly-low, freakishly-low reserve requirement, such that you wonder why they even bother with having a reserve requirement at all! The textbook example is, I remind our newer viewers, 10%. Now the damnable Federal Reserve has allowed the banks to have on hand less than 1% of this amount! This is where all the money is coming from!

I bring this up because with a at 0.9% reserve requirement, the reserve multiplier is thus huge! If you walk into the bank, take a one-dollar bill out of your wallet, slap it on the counter and tell the surprised teller that you want to use that dollar to make a cash deposit into your account, then the banks are, in effect, empowered to make available (for loaning out to borrowers) more than a hundred new dollars! A hundred!

I also noted that the banks hold almost $1.2 trillion dollar's worth of government debt. It is not just foreign banks that are stupidly accumulating US government debt, which will fall in value as interest rates rise. But added together, $1.4 trillion and $1.2 trillion, this comes to $2.6 trillion, which is about 25% of the entire GDP of the USA! And this behavior by the banks brings up the point that that I am always screeching about: It's always the same thing that causes economic slowdowns and problems and recessions and depressions and collapses; the banks acted stupidly and greedy.

more...

[54anickel]

59. The “Neutral Rate” (Last entry on the Credit Bubble Bulletin Watch)

Put this together with Mogambo's rant on old "Chopper Ben Bernanke" and BeelzeBush pushing for home builder tax credits. Sort of a "read 'em and weep" combination.

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

From this morning’s New York Times Op-Ed piece, “Running Out of Bubbles,” by Paul Krugman: “In July 2001, Paul McCulley, an economist at Pimco, the giant bond fund, predicted that the Federal Reserve would simply replace one bubble with another. ‘There is room,’ he wrote, ‘for the Fed to create a bubble in housing prices, if necessary, to sustain American hedonism. And I think the Fed has the will to do so, even though political correctness would demand that Mr. Greenspan deny any such thing.’”

Well done Mr. McCulley. So what do the inflationists do for an encore?

The problem with inflationism is always the difficulty (impossibility?) of controlling the process once it has gained momentum, inflation/speculation psychology has become entrenched, and the inflationary boom has amassed an increasingly fervent (fanatical?) constituency. Truth be told, the inflationists are these days in a Mortgage Finance Bubble Analytical Pickle – although they will of course convey that they are at the top of their game. Recalling the history of John Law’s experience, there is a thin line between revered financial genius at the height of the Bubble and repudiated monetary quack soon afterwards.

Inflationism is a most slippery slope for analysts and policymakers alike, not to mention the financial system and economy. Lots of “vested interests”… The origins of today’s boom are conspicuous, and the system’s vulnerability to a mortgage debt and housing bust all too obvious. All the same, the imbalances, excesses and fragilities wrought by the inflationary boom will now be used to justify only further inflation. So be prepared for the inflationists to conceive of ever more creative analytical constructs to buttress the susceptible Bubble (and their analytical positions).

Many now argue that the Fed has reached the “Neutral Rate,” and some even profess that monetary conditions are tight. There was an interesting exchange between ISI’s Ed Hyman and chairman Greenspan during the Q&A session at last Thursday’s presentation before the Economic Club of New York.

[54anickel]

60. The conumdrum saga continues....

Fed official's baseball analogy throws economists a curve

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050603/bs_afp/useconomybankrates;_ylt=AnbLcc5n.TEDPNBYFxrEIRCyBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Comments from a Federal Reserve official -- using a baseball analogy suggesting the rate-hiking phase may be near an end -- have thrown economists and financial markets for a curve.

Markets have been buzzing over the remarks, which highlight the "conundrum" of unusually low interest rates on the bond market along with signs of an expanding economy.

Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, said in an interview with CNBC television: "We're clearly in the eighth inning of a tightening cycle ... We have the ninth inning coming up at the end of June."

"I think there's room to tighten a little bit further, and then we'll see," Fisher said. "We may have to go into extra innings in the contest against inflation."

The comments, which sparked a rally in the stock and bonds markets, appeared to be a signal that the central bank was ready to end its moves to bring up interest rates after eight consecutive quarter-point rate increases.

more...


Greenspan's Bond Conundrum Ripens Into an Enigma

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=ac6xHdHdneGo

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The 10-year U.S. Treasury note was a ``conundrum'' to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in mid- February at a yield of about 4.10 percent. After cracking the 4 percent barrier this week, it looks more like Winston Churchill's Russia: ``a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.''

The median forecast of 62 of the finest minds in finance, surveyed by Bloomberg News in December, was for the 10-year bond to yield 4.78 percent by mid-year. Instead, the note pays about 3.9 percent, the lowest in more than a year. Barring a market crash in the next four weeks, that's quite a margin of error.

Bond mavens are now lining up to call for lower yields. Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach said earlier this week he's turning bullish on bonds, with a 3.5 percent level possible in the coming year. Bill Gross at Pacific Investment Management Co., never shy to predict an increase in value for the securities he owns, said May 18 that the 10-year rate could drop to 3 percent by the end of the decade.

Gabe Borenstein, managing director of global investments at Investec Holdings Ltd. in New York, predicts a 10-year yield of 2.5 percent in the current business cycle, which has 18 months or less to run. Higher energy costs, renewed wariness among indebted consumers, and continued recycling of dollars into Treasuries by overseas investors will help drive down yields, he says.

`Serious Recession'

``All of the economic forces point to a dramatic slowdown ahead which will turn into a serious recession, with almost no tools left to abort that possibility,'' says Borenstein, whose firm manages $100 billion globally.

more...


Don't believe the Fed 'pause' hype

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/02/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm

snip>

The biggest wild card, however, depends on what the bond market does in the next few months. John Lynch, chief market analyst with Evergreen Investments, said the Fed is most interested in seeing long-term rates creep back up to minimize the risks of a bubble in the bond market -- and to help cool off what may be an overheated housing market.

So the Fed is clearly getting close to "neutral", Lynch said, noting if long-term yields end their slide and start rising soon, then the Fed may be able to pause sooner rather than later.

But if bond yields stay stubbornly low, Lynch thinks Greenspan might use his next appearance to Congress in mid-July to try to put some fear into bond investors. Remember, it was at Greenspan's semiannual testimony in February that Greenspan first mentioned the "conundrum," which promptly sent long-term yields higher.

"The Fed should be able to stop soon but if the long-end doesn't react then I wouldn't be surprised to see Greenspan come out guns blazing in Congress next month saying, 'Conundrum, conundrum, conundrum.' Fed statements have had more of an effect on the bond market than actions," Lynch said.

more...

[54anickel]

82. Labor costs seen pressuring inflation (here it comes)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=ADSZEJOSL4IGOCRBAEOCFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=8681533

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. labor costs rose much faster in recent quarters than first thought, the government said on Thursday in a report suggesting more interest rate rises may be needed to quell inflation pressures.

snip>

But markets focused on the unit labor costs -- a key price-pressure gauge that measures labor costs for any given unit of production -- which rose at a swift 3.3 percent annual rate, well ahead of expectations, as worker compensation measures were revised sharply higher.

"This is seriously bad news for the (Federal Reserve)," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. "Costs appear to be spiraling rapidly and it strongly argues for substantially higher interest rates."

snip>

Some analysts, however, had looked for big upward changes due to recent revisions to wage data.

snip>

Not all analysts, however, saw the report as signaling a worrisome inflation risk.

David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, said the surge in compensation that lay behind the rapid run-up in unit labor costs likely reflected one-time bonus payments and not a more general building of wage pressure.

more...

[54anickel]

84. As US rate conundrum deepens, Wall St has answers

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=XA3GQEGQAOSCYCRBAE0CFFA?type=reutersEdge&storyID=8688090

snip>

"The real conundrum is why the Fed doesn't understand what is going on," said Andrew Brenner, head of fixed-income at Investec U.S. "But this is what's happening: the more the Fed thinks the economy is strong and keeps tightening the more fearful people get that the economy will slow down."

Another aspect of the low-rate enigma is the current business cycle has been unusually short -- one of the shallowest recessions on record gave way to what is now looking like one of the shortest recoveries in recent memory.

This means the Fed is being forced to raise interest rates just as the global economy is cooling off.

So every time bond yields climb on the expectations of short-term rate increases from the Fed, there is always a soft batch of economic data just waiting around the corner ready to sweep rates back down in their wake.

snip>

Many investors, particularly hedge funds, were so convinced that rates would rise that they bet a lot of money on that likelihood, only to get squeezed out as the market failed to turn in their favor. This only reinforced the decline in rates.

snip>

As baby boomers approach retirement their investment focus tends to shift away from riskier stocks and toward safe-haven bonds, thus placing further pressure on yields.

more...

[UpInArms]

63. GM, Ford downgraded; shares weigh on auto group (fly-by post)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.4835103009-836248176&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) both fell more than 1% Friday, setting a mostly bearish tone in the automotive group. Ward Transportation Research analyst Michael Ward initiated coverage of both stocks with a sell rating. Ford's earnings will be pressured by "negative headwinds from lower-than-expected industry volume in North America, raw material and legacy cost pressures, and less flexible financing options at Ford Motor Credit," he said in a note published by Soleil Securities. The newsflow for General Motors will likely remain negative, he said, due to further market share erosion, cost pressures and waning demand for full-sized trucks.

Quick drop-in - have to get going and attempt to make the grocery money in the free market place of the arts :hi:

[UpInArms]

65. S&P lowers AIG credit, sr debt ratings to 'AA'

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38506.4861801736-836248291&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Friday lowered its long-term counterparty credit and senior debt ratings on American International Group Inc. (AIG) to AA from AA+ and removed them from CreditWatch with negative implications. The agency also lowered its preferred stock rating on AIG to A+ from AA- and removed it from CreditWatch negative. The moves reflect "both the size and scope of the accounting adjustments in its recently released 10-K filing," S&P said. "Although AIG's overall earnings are considered strong, its property/casualty earnings, as restated, indicate greater volatility as well as less robust profitability than was previously reported, as demonstrated by both the ROR and combined ratio." The agency said that aggregate costs in excess of estimates would cause the ratings to come under further review.

"no impact" :rofl:

(last one - I promise :eyes: )

[UpInArms]

68. 11:45 EST numbers and blather (the shearing of the sheep to commence?)

Dow 10,501.03 -52.46 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,078.36 -19.44 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 1,199.02 -5.27 (-0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 39.12 +0.22 (+0.57%)

NYSE Volume 627,125,000
Nasdaq Volume 722,402,000

11:30AM: More of the same for the averages as sellers remain an active bunch... While stocks have been modestly weak across the board, continued pressure on Treasurys has recently pushed the 10-year note into negative territory for the first time today, as the yield has moved higher to 3.92% from a session low of 3.80%... Also weighing on sentiment has been a recent uptick in oil prices to session highs at around $54.50/bbl... NYSE Adv/Dec 1750/1276, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1066/1686

11:00AM: Market backs off its worst levels but still trades in negative territory... Meanwhile, investors have recently sifted through this week's last piece of economic data... The May ISM services index checked in at 58.5, below forecasts of 60.0 and an April read of 61.7, but any reading over 50% indicates expansion... However, given the short history of the index and since the data don't necessarily provide good reads on the economy, the non-manufacturing index has had much less of an impact on stocks as the well-respected manufacturing ISM index... NYSE Adv/Dec 1676/1280, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1008/1643

10:30AM: Major indices extend their reach into negative territory, trading in sympathy with some modest profit-taking in Treasurys... With Treasurys rallying all week, knocking yields on the benchmark 10-year note to as low as 3.81% earlier and providing a floor of support for stocks, some early consolidation in bonds has perhaps also weakened the desire to hold equities heading into the weekend...NYSE Adv/Dec 1674/1189, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1047/1502

[54anickel]

70. 12:04 and the clippers are set to high

Dow 10,475.31 -78.18 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq 2,076.04 -21.76 (-1.04%)
S&P 500 1,196.53 -7.76 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 3.922% +0.03
NYSE Volume 715,275,000
Nasdaq Volume 810,375,000

add blather on edit:

12:00PM : Market continues to sell off midday as weaker than expected payrolls data, a reversal in Treasurys and rising oil prices leave investors with little incentive to hold stocks over the weekend... May nonfarm payrolls grew just 78K, well below expectations of 175K and last month's strong read of 274K, suggesting that the Fed may end its year-long initiative to keep inflation under control... However, the fact that slower economic growth will also produce slower profit growth has so far prevented follow-through buying efforts and left eight out of ten economic sectors in negative territory...

Perhaps also preventing the blue chip indices from recording their third consecutive weekly gain has been a reversal in the Treasury market... Bonds, which initially surged on the disappointing nonfarm figure and knocked yields on the 10-year note down to 3.80%, have since reversed course, lifting the benchmark yield back above 3.90%... Still pacing the way lower is Technology, which has been weak across the board... Hardest hit has been the Hardware group, amid reports that Apple Computer (AAPL 37.89 -2.15) may incur costs of as much as $100 mln related to an iPod battery settlement...

Interest-rate sensitive sectors like Financial and Utilities, amid rising bond yields, have also been under pressure while weakness in the Drug and Biotech groups has weighed on Health Care... Energy, however, has eked out a modest gain as oil prices ($54.60/bbl +$0.97) continue to climb while strength in Steel and Chemicals continues to support the Materials sector... Separately, May ISM services index fell to 58.5, below expectations of 60.0 and an April read of 61.7; however, since the data don't necessarily provide good reads on the economy, the report has been relatively ignored...DJTA -0.7, DJUA -0.3, DOT -1.1, Nasdaq 100 -1.3, Russell 2000 -0.4, SOX -1.1, S&P Midcap 400 -0.5, XOI -0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1514/1555, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1005/1813

[ozymandius]

73. I'll bet they only go half way.

[ozymandius]

75. It hurts. It hurts.

12:12
Dow 10,455.28 -98.21 (-0.93%)
Nasdaq 2,072.78 -25.02 (-1.19%)
S&P 500 1,194.94 -9.35 (-0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 39.14 +0.24 (+0.62%)
NYSE Volume 746,047,000
Nasdaq Volume 838,275,000

EDIT:

[54anickel]

80. Yes sir, yes sir...Three bags full.

One for the fund pirate,
One for bank,
One for the CEO that lives down the lane...

[54anickel]

76. SNARF! Nice pic...eom

[MARALE]

86. Baaaaa

The sheep are getting eaten!

[ozymandius]

71. "weakened the desire to hold equities heading into the weekend"

Looking back through the time I've spent here - I cannot recall this notion, "weakened the desire to hold equities heading into the weekend", being mentioned until recently.

Does any old-timer here recall either this phrase or this idea being offered up as an excuse for a decline on Friday?

[Maeve]

72. No, I can't remember seeing it until recently either

So, is that what happened in 1929? Weekend fear? :eyes:

And to think, we always believed it was something to do with reality!

[54anickel]

74. 11:56AM Treasury Market Slides on Profit-taking and Technicals

Trade succumbed to profit-taking in mid-session as "the world came in long," notes an institutional broker. They are "now booking profits," into the weekend and ahead of a late-Sunday speech to Chinese bankers by Fed head Greenspan. The convergence of reality and technical issues is weighing on trade, but prices should recover into the late trade. The huge miss on the nonfarm payrolls report (78K versus 175K est) took less of a bite out of yields" than it should have, "That big a blow should have pushed yields through 3.7%." The mid-curve is feeling most of the hot, hot heat as the curve-flattening trades, a dominant factor of the week, unwind. The 2-10-yr yield spread has shifted from an aggressive narrowing run, tagging 33.2 (tightest since Feb 2001) and now sitting just under 40. The dollar has slowed its rally as US interest rates get pummeled, but will remain supported by political issues and instability in the European theatre. As mentioned earlier this morning, the market may come under some selling pressure following the economic releases as technical reads pointed to a change in momentum. The 9-day relative strength index on the 10-year futures was reading near 80 as the session opened, indicating an overbought condition and the potential for a price reversal. Generally, RSI readings over 70 or below 30 bring technical price reversals. The 10-yrs are currently -03/32nds yielding 3.914%.

[54anickel]

77. The Buyback Cash Cow

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/050602/111774675023.html

In the old days, cash was king. And in the realm of barely alive startups, it still is. But in recent decades, some companies have found themselves in a not-so-common quandary -- they have too much cash.

What to do with it?

Paying dividends, reducing debt, making acquisitions, undertaking capital expenditures, or buying back stock are the usual suspects. Peter Lynch likes that last one. In his classic One Up on Wall Street, he lists share buybacks as one of the favorable attributes he looks for when buying into companies. He argues that buybacks are "the simplest and best way a company can reward its investors." :eyes:

Why? Because of the accretive effect on earnings per share. Reducing shares outstanding means increasing EPS.

An article in the May 31 Wall Street Journal points out that cash and "near cash" (cash equivalents, trading assets, and the like) held on balance sheets by all companies in the S&P 500 index, as tracked by Thomson Financial, had a year-over-year increase of 10.4% in the first quarter to $766 billion. The biggest increase for the use of that cash was share buybacks, accounting for 3.1% one year ago and 8% in this year's first quarter.

more...

[Roland99]

78. I don't suppose increasing worker salaries/benefits comes into play?

Naaaah..

[54anickel]

79. The right kind of credit

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

What a difference an ocean makes. The third biggest bank in the U.K. is complaining about credit card losses, while over here, charge off rates on cards have fallen for 16 months in a row. According to the Financial Times, UK investors are getting the eye-twitch because they see the Barclays’ warning as a hint that consumer credit problems are festering at other big banks. But over here, consumers are so anxious to pay back the credit card companies that they are doing so at record rates (according to Moody’s figures quoted in the Bond Buyer).

Have American consumers become drunk on the elixir of sobriety?

More likely, less enthusiasm for credit card debt is a reflection of Yankee ingenuity. As financial sophisticates, we Americans know that charging up the credit card is a boneheaded financial move, while borrowing against your home is sophisticated equity extraction.

The accompanying chart shows just how forward thinking we Americans have become. Consumer credit – which includes credit card debt and other consumer loans – has been growing at mere single digit rates for two years. In contrast, household mortgage debt has been ramping up at double digits.



snip>

Constructing a recovery

A person on his way to have a roofing nail removed from his tire for the third time in two months might be tempted to think that the housing construction and remodeling business has taken over the American economy. As it turns out, that person would be right. Northern Trust’s Asha Bangalore has crunched the numbers and found that housing and related industries accounted for 43% of the increase in job growth since the recovery began in Nov. 2001. That’s particularly impressive since housing did not recover from a slump, but rather shifted to higher levels from an already revved up pace, like a cab driver approaching a yellow light. There is always the chance, however, that the housing bubble won’t keep going until the sun supernovas. If housing does slow one day, Ms. Bangalore expects that “The number of job losses could be significant given the role the housing sector has played in the current recovery.”

Hedge funds to the rescue

snip>




more...

[MARALE]

81. Rush begins podcasts

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9B249134%2DBBE0%2D42A1%2DB75C%2D92071DBC99C9%7D&siteid=mktw
This caught my eye, Air America have this?

The feature, which is also described as podcasting, has been added as a benefit for members of Limbaugh's $49.95-a-year "24/7" club.

The availability of Limbaugh's shows is evidence that the podcast trend "is advancing at incredible speed as more marketers and media owners incorporate it as an extension of the radio business," AdAge.com reported.

Limbaugh's show is one of several his program distributor, Premiere Radio Networks (CCU: news, chart, profile) , is making available for downloads. Premiere also has, without announcement, begun podcasting the Glenn Beck and Phil Hendrie shows.

...

[54anickel]

83. 1:11 - check the blather on Treasuries

Dow 10,464.02 -89.47 (-0.85%)
Nasdaq 2,075.03 -22.77 (-1.09%)
S&P 500 1,196.01 -8.28 (-0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 39.47 +0.57 (+1.47%)
NYSE Volume 902,761,000
Nasdaq Volume 992,861,000

1:00PM: Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... The Treasury market, however, continues to deteriorate, as profit-taking and expectations that Greenspan's newly scheduled late-night Sunday speech (via satellite to a Chinese Bankers conference) may rattle the markets has knocked the 10-year note down 12 ticks to yield 3.94%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1277/1874, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 952/1952

12:30PM: Stocks extend their reach into negative territory in the absence of strong sector leadership... While Technology has posted the largest percentage loss, weakness in the more influential Financial sector continues to weigh most heavily on the broader market... Prompting much of the selling pressure has been a flattening of the yield curve between the 2-yr and 10-yr notes, which suggests the early stages of a more restrictive lending policy...NYSE Adv/Dec 1310/1821, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 940/1954

[ozymandius]

87. Mommy! Make the bad man stop!

3:00
Dow 10,458.53 -94.96 (-0.90%)
Nasdaq 2,071.21 -26.59 (-1.27%)
S&P 500 1,195.83 -8.46 (-0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 39.79 +0.89 (+2.29%)
NYSE Volume 1,234,311,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,323,120,000

2:30PM: Indices pare some of their losses even as oil prices touch session highs above $55/bbl... While higher oil prices have provided an impetus behind some of today's widespread consolidation, a recent push in crude oil futures to $55.05/bbl (+$1.42) has subsequently renewed buying interest in Energy - a sector which could again provide leadership with regard to expected Q2 earnings growth of about 23%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1459/1734, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1121/1846

2:00PM: More of the same for stocks as selling remains widespread across most areas, but there are some individual stories of note generating excitement in a down market... VeriFone Holdings (PAY 16.10 +2.71), which went public exactly one month ago, has paced a limited list of gainers on the NYSE after posting strong Q2 earnings...

[ozymandius]

88. coming up to the close

3:52
Dow 10,470.73 -82.76 (-0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,072.06 -25.74 (-1.23%)
S&P 500 1,196.76 -7.53 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 39.79 +0.89 (+2.29%)
NYSE Volume 1,476,375,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,547,907,000

3:30PM: Selling remains the name of the game going into the close, as a widespread negative tone continues to weigh on the proceedings... While concerns of economic weakness impacting profit growth has underpinned a sense of nervousness throughout the market, the fact that the major averages have also been trading near the upper end of their ranges has also diminished the desire to hold stocks over the weekend...

Volume running at a lower than averagepace and below the last few sessions, however - as evidenced by the NYSE finally surpassing 1.0 bln shares - suggests relatively muted selling pressure and little conviction behind the broad-based weakness... NYSE Adv/Dec 1488/1751, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1098/1917

3:00PM: Sellers show some resolve, pushing the indices to new session lows, but blue chips continue to lag their Nasdaq counterparts to the downside... On the Dow, American International Group (AIG 54.94 -0.95) has lost ground after S&P cut its credit and debt ratings on the insurer to "AA" from "AA+" while CAT, KO, MCD, MSFT, PG and WMT have also lost at least 1.0%...

[ozymandius]

89. closing numbers (some settling may occur)

Dow 10,460.97 -92.52 (-0.88%)
Nasdaq 2,071.43 -26.37 (-1.26%)
S&P 500 1,196.05 -8.24 (-0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 39.79 +0.89 (+2.29%)

NYSE Volume 1,593,589,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,634,206,000

I must run. Have a great weekend folks!

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

90. Bye Ozy! Just got back to sneak a peek at the numbers. What's

up with the soaring buck? More advancing on the "Non" votes in Europe? Surely it can't be based on today's reports. :shrug:

Last trade 88.06 Change +0.28 (+0.32%)

Settle 87.75 Settle Time 23:36

Open 87.74 Previous Close 87.75

High 88.17 Low 87.37

[lyonn]

91. That cartoon is too perfect! nt

[RawMaterials]

92. Closing numbers & Blatheor

Dow 10460.97 -92.52 (-0.88%)
Nasdaq 2071.43 -26.37 (-1.26%)
S&P 500 1196.02 -8.27 (-0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 3.979% +0.89

NYSE Volume 1,631,309,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,677,972,000

Close: Stocks opened on a downbeat note and never recovered after the slowest job creation in nearly two years left investors questioning the sustainability of a recent stock rally that had lifted the major averages to multi-month highs... While May nonfarm payrolls checked in at 78K, less than half of the 175K expected and well below last month's surprising read of 274K, the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% - its lowest level since Sept. 2001 - and a modest 0.2% rise in hourly earnings showed that inflation remains tame...

Upon further analysis, however, the reality that slower economic growth could also cut into corporate profits overshadowed hopes of a potential pause in the Fed's year-long initiative to contain inflationary pressures... Also weighing on sentiment that failed to lift eight out of ten economic sectors out of the red was the reality that many stocks have been trading near the upper end of their ranges, higher oil prices, a diminishing desire to own stocks over the weekend and a lack of sector leadership... Speaking of, Technology paced the way to the downside, with losses of more than 1.0% across most of its sub-sectors...

Partly responsible behind the demise of a five-week winning streak on the Nasdaq was a near 2.0% drubbing in Hardware... The group sold off amid reports of swelling inventories of Apple Computer's (AAPL 38.24 -1.80) iPods and a related battery settlement that could cost Apple as much as $100 mln... Early stages of a more restrictive lending policy, as evidenced in the flattening of the yield curve between the 2-yr and 10-yr note, exacerbated weakness in Financial...

While the Treasury market initially surged on the weak nonfarm figure and knocked yields on the 10-year note down to 3.80%, profit-taking and expectations that Greenspan's Monday night speech to a China Banking panel may rattle the markets closed the benchmark 10-year note down 17 ticks to yield 3.96%... Health Care was also an influential leader trading lower, amid weakness in the Drug and Biotech groups; however, new 52-week highs in several HMOs (i.e. UNH, WLP, AET, HUM and CI) minimized sector losses... Energy, however, eked out a modest gain as oil prices closed near session highs at $55.03/bbl (+$1.40)... Crude oil futures (+2.6%) rebounded from their first decline in a week amid concerns over tightening supplies of heating oil...

Separately, the May ISM services index fell to 58.5, below expectations of 60.0 and an April read of 61.7; however, since the data don't necessarily provide good reads on the economy, the report had much less of an impact on stocks as the well-respected manufacturing ISM index did on Wednesday...DJTA -0.6, DJUA +0.2, DOT -1.2, Nasdaq 100 -1.6, Russell 2000 -0.8, SOX -1.3, S&P Midcap 400 -0.6, XOI +0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1515/1736, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1139/1877



keep on keepin on :) just stay with life