Oil prices may double in three years, analyst says

[True_Blue]

One of the world's leading energy analysts on Monday called for an independent assessment of global oil reserves because he believed that Middle Eastern countries may have far less than officially stated and that oil prices could double to more than US$100 a barrel within three years, triggering economic collapse.

Matthew Simmons, an adviser to US President George W. Bush and chairman of the Wall Street energy investment company Simmons, said that "peak oil" -- when global oil production rises to its highest point before falling irreversibly -- was rapidly approaching even as demand was increasing.

"This is a new era," Simmons told a conference of oil industry analysts, government officials and academics in Edinburgh. "There is a big chance that Saudi Arabia actually peaked production in 1981. We have no reliable data. Our data collection system for oil is rubbish. I suspect that if we had, we would find that we are over-producing in most of our major fields and that we should be throttling back. We may have passed that point."

Simmons told the meeting that it was inevitable that the price of oil would soar above US$100 as supplies failed to meet demand.

more....
http://webnewswire.com/article436054.html

[Indiana_Dem]

1. Thanks!

I posted it to my blog!

[Geo55]

2. Yep.....

Simmons has been sounding the alarm for some time now.
The *hitstorm is bearing down on us all like a runaway freight train.

"

[wallwriter]

3. As long as Exxon Mobil can still build up their

multi-billion dollar cash reserves...:sarcasm:

[Cornjob]

4. It's really a 'no-brainer'!

By checking oil price data over the past four years, it's easy to see that oil prices have steadily trended upward. They have approximately doubled over the period. Although Simmon's prediction of price doubling again in three years seems a little alarmist, it could happen if China's demand grows at its current rate.

I really can imagine that China would dump its yuan-dollar lock if oil prices rise as fast as Simmons predicts. If they allow their currency to float, it would help pay for a lot of oil.

[Straight Shooter]

5. Not just the cost of gasoline. Everything will go up.

This is what a lot of people on the street don't factor in. They think it's just the cost of gas. I always think of freight surcharges and petrochemical products.

Yep, it's going to hit the fan. All these years of denying that we're the world's worst oil gluttons, all this wasted time chasing new oil sources when we could have been developing truly reliable alternative energy, we're going to see some incredibly hostile chickens coming home to roost.

[NorCalDem]

7. You make the best point.

No food in grocery stores (can't make deliveries), minimal electricity and heat (if any), plastics, pharmaceuticals, anything that is manufactured (automobiles, electronics, EVERYTHING), basically....

If anyone watched the "Oil Storm" show on FX the other night, I thought it did a reasonably decent job of conveying that message. That it's not just that you can no longer drive to work. It's that there is no work, and no goods or services to buy if you could even afford them. It would be the start of the revolution, and for some reason, I'm not all that scared about it.

Discuss....

[Geo55]

18. "Oil Storm" show on FX the other night

Viewed it ,
may be a prelim "wake up call" for Joe Six pack (does anybody know this guy ? ) .....was disingenuous in spots ( implying S.A. has spare capacity etc. ) The attack on Ras Tanura freaked me.....an excellent "tipping point" , but they just centered on the emotions of the characters losing their son.

Hey "we" all know the story......at least it puts the scenario in play.

[bluestateguy]

6. Another "chickens come home to roost" post

And this is all happening under the Republicans' watch. It's their government. Their responsibility.

[Theduckno2]

16. They've managed to dodge responsibility for Iraq by saying

that they got bum intelligence on WMD. If reserves were over estimated they could plead blissful ignorance to the truth, but we of course know better. They are responsible for their decisions and should be held accountable.

[Whoa_Nelly]

8. I find it suspect when this is from a Bush advisor

Matthew Simmons, an adviser to US President George W. Bush and chairman of the Wall Street energy investment company...

Have to wonder if this is more hype aimed at supporting arctic drilling.

[bpilgrim]

9. he ain't the only one, but one of the few Investment Bankers

this PEAK OIL reality

peace

[brentspeak]

10. Or hype to justify tripling oil prices

[Geo55]

20. He admits to sucking GWB's toe crud

from a recent interview,

Part 1: Matthew R. Simmons, June 2, 2005.
SPK: The first question is one I have to ask: I have read in some places that you have a relationship with the Bush family.

MRS: That is a widely misunderstood deal. And in fact I get embarrassed all the number of times I've been described as an energy strategists for the Bush family or a senior advisor to the Bush administration on energy. First of all I am a big, big supporter of President Bush. I have met him several times and I spent a lot of time in 2000 making sure that the Bush campaign strategy people were aware of the growing number of energy problems that we had cropping up so that this didn't catch them by surprise. And as a result of that I ended up providing a lot of the raw data that went into the comprehensive energy plan that was laid out by Governor Bush when he was running for President.


http://agonist.org/story/2005/6/3/124329/2939

[newswolf56]

11. Already America's idiotic opposition to mass transit is...

...radically worsening the lot of lower-income people, and the truth of the matter is that most of the population doesn't care -- not as long as it can still afford to drive automobiles equipped like surrogate living-rooms.

We already have the most expensive, least efficient transport system on the planet: compare the percentage of individual budget consumed by the private automobile versus the cost of effective public transport. The latter is a savings of about 90 percent -- a fact to which anyone can testify who has moved from the car-dependent hinterlands to a city like New York, where transport that runs swiftly on rails (rather than at a snail's pace in stinky buses) makes automobiles wholly unnecessary.

Even with massive federal subsidies available in the pre-Reagan years, localities like Seattle refused to build rapid transit. Why? Xenophobia, including generous doses of anti-Semitism and racism: "we don' wanna be like Jew York."

But don't expect any improvement now -- not even when gas prices reach $5 or more a gallon. Thanks to Bush deficits, there's no federal money -- which means the desperately needed transit systems will NEVER be built, and the national economy will collapse accordingly. Though the plutocrats, of course, will continue to drive...

[NuttyFluffers]

13. but, but, but, Amtrak is evil socialist mass transit!

it'll make people travel without using masculine SUVs. who's gonna watch me drive my GM (penile) Compensator (tm) and be awestruck by my magnitude? who's gonna pay attention to ME, dammit? :sarcasm:

[Robeson]

12. Will oil company executives be reducing their salaries correspondingly?...

...my guess is no.

[wildcat78]

14. Bolivia

Another reason to send our troops into Bolivia. We need every last drop!

[SKKY]

15. And Venezuela! While we're down there.

[MiniMe]

17. Hasn't it already almost doubled?n/t

[Kenneth ken]

23. yes

a snapshot:

FINANCIAL INFORMATION
(In thousands, except per share data)


For the Quarter For the Nine Months
Ended September 30, Ended September 30,
2001 2000 2001 2000

<snip>

AVERAGE OIL PRICE PER
BARREL
United States $25.49 $29.15 $26.13 $26.83
Canada 19.92 22.91 20.35 21.88
Australia 24.77 33.32 26.27 29.98
Egypt 24.60 30.17 25.75 27.74
Total 24.15 29.11 25.01 26.86

I don't know how to properly space/format this, but it says average oil price (US) was $26.13 for the nine months ending September 30, 2001. Now it's bouncing around $50. +

note: this is a financial from one company, but I am assuming it is roughly close to industry standards for pricing. So, I could be wrong high or low.

http://investor.apachecorp.com/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=apa&script=412&layout=23&item_id=220475

[truthisfreedom]

24. once. they're saying it will double again.

[KeepItReal]

19. CORRECTION: "Oil prices may double in three years, Bush advisor dreams"

"Matthew Simmons, an adviser to US President George W. Bush and chairman of the Wall Street energy investment company"

WTF?

How the hell you gonna get an opinion from someone who was financial interest in the outcome of his own prediction!?

[Lori Price CLG]

21. Well, if only Halliburton would stop blowing up oil pipelines...

...in Iraq (so they can get the money to 'rebuild' what they just destroyed), maybe the gas prices wouldn't triple.

Lori Price

[truthisfreedom]

22. what a terrible mess. i bet it will triple in that time! inflation will

be insane.