Philly Fed index weakens sharply in June

[swag]

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicne

WASHINGTON (AFX) - Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region weakened unexpectedly in June, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday. The Philly Fed's activity index fell to -2.2 in June from 7.3 in May. This is the first negative reading since May 2003. The drop was unexpected. Economists were expecting a slight increase to 9.4, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. Treasury prices reversed direction and moved higher after the report was released. Treasurys improve on weak Philly Fed data

The index has been positive for two straight years. Readings over zero indicate expansion in the sector In May, the index fell to 7.3 from 25.3, the largest one-month decline since January 2001

The decline in the Philly Fed index contrasted with a rebound in the Empire State index in June and a strong gain in industrial production in May. The Philly Fed new-orders index fell to 2.5 in June from 15.0, while the shipments index rose to 6.6 from 14.9.

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[the other one]

1. The economy fell of a cliff last month.

My business has all but disappeared. When the media and wall street figure out that main street has stopped spending, then the real repurcussions of the Bush travesty will make themselves felt. Once the real estate bubble blows (which is probably happening as we speak) then the stock market will dive and unemployment will soar. I expect a very difficult second half of 2005, and I don't even want to think about 2006.

[mbperrin]

2. NO NO NO! We're in a "patch" of some kind,

data is STRONG (bullshit usually IS, and freedom is on the march!

Why does the Philly Fed hate 'Murika?

Yes, the economy has fallen off a cliff! I can drive by major restaurants in our town between 6 and 9 and see 4 or 5 cars in the parking lots built for hundreds; drive by the larger mall and see two or three rows of cars at the most on a 600 acre parking lot; even WAL MART has about 10% of their parking lot taken up, leaving 90% empty (that's if 45 empty rows of 50 qualifies as 90%). Foreclosures are double the same month last year here, according to Foreclosures.com, and people are WALKING all over the place here, a place with no real public transport.

Of course, that imaginary birth/death employment model they use helps to stretch it out a bit for those who aren't really looking...

[Melynn]

3. Here it comes

The great Bush depression. Buddy, can you spare a dime?

Economic statistics tend to backward looking. I think that the economy has been in the toilet for a while now, just look at when Bush's poll numbers started to drop for the start of the recession/depression.

[dchill]

4. True ...

And when millions of Americans who have borrowed against the inflated "value" of their houses realize that they can't really afford their houses or the payments, the "bubble" will burst all over everyone. Then the banks will own a huge glut of over-valued property that they can't sell.

Let's invade Iran!