Oil 'Peak' Not Coming Soon -- AP newswire

[IrateCitizen]

Report: Oil 'Peak' Not Coming Soon
By BRAD FOSS, AP Business Writer
2 hours, 44 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Global oil production is not likely to peak anytime soon, contrary to talk that has helped propel prices close to $60 a barrel, although lower prices may still be a few years away, a prominent energy consultancy said Tuesday.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates said that, instead of a crest being reached sometime this decade, an inflection point in world oil output will occur sometime beyond 2020, after which production will plateau for several more decades.

In a report that builds upon earlier analyses by the Cambridge, Mass.-based consultancy, CERA said it believes that between now and 2010 there will be a substantial increase in worldwide oil production capacity. It said that "as a result, supply could exceed demand by as much as 6 million to 7.5 million barrels per day later in the decade" that will lead to an extended period of lower prices beginning as early as 2008.

The price of oil could "slip well below $40 a barrel as 2007-08 nears," CERA said.

REST: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050621/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_no_peak_yet

When I read reports like this, I wonder why they don't devote more time toward explaining why the big oil companies are currently going merger-happy right now rather than investing in exploration, or how these "giant" oilfields have somehow missed their attention despite technological advances over the past 30 years.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. was this written by the department of truith?

Oh yes, I forgot, chocolate rations are up this month too

[Canuckistanian]

2. Phew! That's a load off my mind!

Now, can I go shopping again?

[truthisfreedom]

3. or sell your used SUV for a few more bucks than you thought.

which is what most of my neighbors will be doing soon.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. And... buying Hybrids? Nah you don't say

I drive the truck, my husband drives the hybrid... he fills once every two weeks, I try to limit it to every ten days... I drive one fourth the distance on average.

[wallwriter]

22. The Bushies have a delicate balance to maintain

Gas prices have to be high enough that the oil companies can make record profits in the multi-billions, but they have to be low enough that people don't vote republicans out of office or actually make use of alternative fuel and transportation technologies.

[harrison]

5. Can they explain this then?

Oil: Caveat empty



By Alfred J. Cavallo
May/June 2005 pp. 16-18 (vol. 61, no. 03) © 2005 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Without any press conferences, grand announcements, or hyperbolic advertising campaigns, the Exxon Mobil Corporation, one of the world's largest publicly owned petroleum companies, has quietly joined the ranks of those who are predicting an impending plateau in non-OPEC oil production. Their report, The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View, forecasts a peak in just five years.




http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=mj05cavallo

[Deja Q]

6. So we have 20 years of oil for our current needs despite Saudi's peak...

That means our corporations offshoring and every other immoral action is being done out of pure, unfettered greed.

And if that was true, how come no oil company (as I'd heard) has bee nsetting up new rigs or improving the existing ones?

Or why we need to stay in Iraq at all?

[Beetwasher]

7. Oh! Well, In That Case!

BURN BABY BURN!!!! :eyes:

[punpirate]

8. Given that several large oil companies...

... have revised the amount of reserves under their control downward, I do have to wonder about this.

It is true that from discovery to full production takes years, but I think we also would have heard of big strikes in the last couple of years that would be coming due around the time period they say prices should come down. I just don't remember hearing of any in the last couple of years, at least not big ones that would be cheap to extract.

??? :shrug:

[IrateCitizen]

9. More on CERA -- they are a subsidiary of IHS Energy...

... who is a firm that specializes in providing consulting services to the oil and gas industry. So, if they admitted that a 'peak' was coming soon, then that would mean that they would be basically running themselves out of a job. However, if they maintain the view that the 'peak' is a long way off, then they are able to continue generating market share.

Sorry, but I'll listen to the likes of Colin Campbell and Ken Deffeyes, who are unbeholden to the industry itself and able to approach the issue from a more detached viewpoint.

[mbperrin]

10. Written by the Carlyle Group.

Check out the connection: (warning: grip garlic and crucifix tightly):
http://www.thecarlylegroup.com/eng/team/l5-team1087.html


Now lessee, if we don't buy petro-replacement, then coal becomes good-looking, and just BY COINCIDENCE, Carlyle is heavily into coal, and Just Coincidentally, coal is pushed hard by the current mis/maladministration...


Hmmmm....

[cyberpj]

13. They must be getting desperate - not even hiding that fact... nt.

[Theduckno2]

19. Thanks for the link, I had my doubts about the report

and it looks as though they were well placed. :wow:

[Barrett808]

11. Skepticism over at PeakOil.com

http://peakoil.com/fortopic9080.html

[Barrett808]

17. Also over at The Oil Drum

Gee, All Sorts of Pollyannas Out This Week...
http://theoildrum.blogspot.com/2005/06/gee-all-sorts-of-pollyannas-out-this.html

[cyberpj]

12. "You do not need to see my papers" he said as he waved his hand .....

Nothing to see here.....

[daleo]

14. Who funded the report?

Answer that, and you are well on your way to knowing how much to trust it. I didn't see anything in the article about the sponsor.

On edit - Other posters dug up a Carlyle Group connection. Yikes!

[hatrack]

15. And if a Carlyle Group affiliate says so, you can frickin' BANK on it!

:eyes:

[AlGore-08.com]

16. And pigs "could" fly.

Anything "could" happen.

If you close your eyes and wish really, really hard.

[whosinpower]

18. If and it is a big IF

Oil production does increase enough to meet demand - they will shut off the spigot to keep the prices high.....high prices = more profit.

We will never see $40/barrel oil again.

[endarkenment]

27. Well we could see $40

But we would be in the midst of a rather severe world-recession/depression. Take yer pick: depression and cheap oil, stagnation and high oil prices.

[dissent1977]

20. Let's make the AP explain this article as we see oil production...

continue to plummet. I can't wait to see these corporate shills lose their credibility to such an extent that they are considered to be no more reliable than the Weekly World News.

[DS1]

21. Maybe it's already come and gone

:-)

It's still the truth, in this case

[endarkenment]

23. Indeed they neglected to mention that

you won't see it coming up, but if you look out the rear view mirror you can still catch a glimpse.

They also left out the part where all this extra crude production they say is going to show up is going to be quite a bit more expensive than the cheap oil flowing out of the big fields that have already peaked. Its the end of cheap oil, not the end of oil.

The volume of lies is reaching something of a crescendo these days. Somthings up. Big time.

[Melynn]

24. Oil prices to drop in 2008 - just in time for the election

Now isn't that special. Actually, I can almost believe that will happen as the Repugs try to get the person elected president.

Then oil prices will soar once the election is over.

[Javaman]

25. This research brought to you by the good people at GM

[Ilsa]

26. A drilling lineman told me the other day that there was enough oil

to last a thousand years. I didn't ask him if that was for one person, though.

[Thor_MN]

28. So THAT'S why they are building all those new refineries

Oh wait....

No one wants to get caught holding the bag on the last refinery to be built. The oil companies are closing down plants because they know that there won't be any oil to run through them....

[Porcupine]

29. And expanding the tanker fleet too!!!

I googled "tanker shortage -air" and got 39,100 hits. That's a lot of hits for a tanker fleet that should be expanding to take advantage of the expansion in shipments of oil.

Of course if there wasn't going to be an expansion in oil shipments it wouldn't make sense to build new tankers at all.

Hmmm.

[lakeguy]

30. if this is true...why don't the oil corps build

more refineries. is it because they want to keep gas supply down (and prices up!) or because they know they will never recoup the cost of building before oil peaks (before 2020)?