STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 27 June

[ozymandius]

Monday June 27, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 208 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 190 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 253 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1310
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 24, 2005

Dow... 10,297.84 -123.60 (-1.19%)
Nasdaq... 2,053.27 -17.39 (-0.84%)
S&P 500... 1,191.57 -9.16 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.91% -0.05 (-1.14%)
Gold future... 442.00 -1.20 (-0.27%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
A Brief Update on Dow Theory

On April 14th, 2005 both the Industrial’s and the Transports violated their previous secondary reaction low points that occurred in mid-January. This break is shown by the red trend line and served to re-align the Secondary trend with the Primary trend. From that break the averages both declined into their April lows. Note that at the April lows the averages formed a small scale non-confirmation as noted by the small blue trend lines. This non-confirmation marked the beginning of the most recent rally. Under Dow’s theory, this advance currently has to be labeled as a “Secondary Reaction.”



As the market has advanced in this Secondary Reaction another interesting development has occurred. That being the formation of a “Line.” Here is what the great Dow theorist William Peter Hamilton said about lines: "A 'line' is a price movement extending two to three weeks or longer, during which period the price variation of both averages moves within a range of approximately five percent. Such a movement indicates either accumulation or distribution. Simultaneous advances above the limits of the "line" indicate accumulation and predict higher prices; conversely, simultaneous declines below the "line" imply distribution and lower prices are sure to follow. Conclusions drawn from the movement of one average, not confirmed by the other, generally prove to be incorrect."

The following is a comment from Robert Rhea, the Dow theorist following Hamilton, on this subject. "Hamilton showed us that either important accumulation or distribution might be occurring when a 'line' formation is in the making, but few people have been able to guess, over a period of time, whether emergence would be topside or downward. Until joint penetration has occurred, it is unwise to attempt to guess whether the selling is of better quality than the buying. If the former is true, the 'line' is broken downside and distribution is said to have taken place. Should the penetration be topside, then the judgment of the bulls was better than that of the bears, and accumulation has occurred."

-cut-

As you can see, each of the averages has broken out of their line formations. The Transports broke first and to the downside. The Industrials broke last and to the upside. So, once again the words of these great Dow theorists from nearly a century ago have once again proven to have been very wise in that the downside break by the Transports were not a sure indication that a downside break of the Industrials would follow. The fact that one average broke up and one down now leaves the averages again with a non-confirmation on a secondary level.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Maeve]

3. One line to sum up that report

Robert Rhea – “A wise man lets the market alone when the averages disagree.”

It could be a long, hot summer and I don't mean that in a good way.

[loudsue]

2. Good mornin' Ozy!

:donut: I just finished my first cup o' java, and have to pack the car for my trek west today. (I got some more work as a result of the work I got a couple of weeks ago, but this time I'll be driving out with all of my computers and equipment, for a longer stay.)

I'm glad to have the work, but the whole project is a little shaky, and I don't know how long it might last.

I'll be able to keep up with Market Watch threads while I'm there, though! So, after a 2-day drive, I'll be back! The end of last week sure saw the Market acting tenuous, didn't it? I'm still wondering which day it will be when all the blinders come off, and the whole house of cards comes tumbling down.

:yourock: Thanks to all the Marketeers for keeping us all informed!! :loveya:

:kick::kick::kick:

[ozymandius]

5. Excellent news loudsue!

This stretch of employment puts you in a great place for the next gig. Please drop by when you can while you're on the road.

As Maeve says above - the markets look to deliver a long hot summer. It's all about the oil, dontchaknow. So if you want drama - you've come to the right place.

Ozy :hi:

[AnneD]

18. Morning Marketeers

:donut: Good on ya LoudSue. A little income is better than no income. And who knows where it will lead....Keep us posted. I don't think the blinders will come off until we are knee deep in a depression. Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[jmcon007]

4. Good God. Concentrate on the good news for a change.....

Exxon Mobil Corp. posted a 44 percent increase in first quarter profits to $7.86 billion.
We're working hard and freedom's on the march.

[ozymandius]

6. This is great news.

With such record accomplishment and skillful business maneuvering, I'll bet ExxonMobil is angling to have their name on the gates of some future gulag.

[Burried News]

41. With all that profit will Exxon be accelerating the move to double

hulled supertankers? Och du lieber, Velldiz is an interesting question. Schtupid but interesting.

[ozymandius]

7. pre-open blather

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Still little enthusiasm seen in the futures market as current indications suggest stocks will open modestly lower... While $60/bbl oil remains the headline concern, climbing on worries that Iran's new government may hurt output, it is worth noting that two weeks ago the major indices averaged gains of over 1.3%, even as oil soared 8.4% (to $58.47/bbl), while equities last week recorded their largest weekly decline in more than two months as oil climbed a less vigorous 2.3% (to $59.84/bbl)

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Still shaping up to be a lackluster open for the indices, as futures indications continue to trade below fair value... While there are no scheduled economic data to provide a more definitive tone to trading, investors may get some relief following better than expected quarterly results from this morning's only notable earnings reports... Walgreen (WAG) has beaten analysts' Q3 expectations by $0.02 while Nike (NKE) has beaten Q4 forecasts by $0.03 and sees 9.5% future orders growth

[UpInArms]

9. 9:40 EST numbers (going up)

Dow 10,311.26 +13.42 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,053.41 +0.14 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,192.44 +0.87 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 3.915 +0.01 (+0.03%)

NYSE Volume 83,743,000
Nasdaq Volume 92,477,000

(edited to fix time)

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.40 Change -0.38 (-0.43%)

Dollar Begins To Retreat Against Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1825&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls managed to push the greenback longs above the 1.2100 figure after the dollar longs failed to keep the pair below the 1.2000 figure. As euro longs continue to push the pair higher, their retrace will most likely going to be capped at 1.2460, previous summer range high. Indicators signal a trend reversal with ADX (DMI) on the daily chart to 34.05. Stochastic is neutral on the daily chart at 35.16. The Stochastic on the dealer (4HR) chart is neutral at 67.39. RSI is neutral on the daily chart at 40.58 with the 4-hour chart RSI also neutral at 54.46. MACD is pointing upward below the zero line on the daily chart and is has made a bullish crossover below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. In case the reversal fails greenback longs will most likely resume their advance and push the pair below the psychologically important 1.2000 figure.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen remains in a limbo as the pair continues to float above the 109.00 figure, with the latest move by the dollar longs pushing the yen toward the 109.50 mark. A breakout above the 2005 high will most likely see the yen traders retreat above the psychologically important 110.00 handle, with dollar longs aiming at 115.00 as their next big target.. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX (DMI) dropping to 26.46. Stochastic is treading below the overbought line on the daily chart at 71.47 with Stochastic on the 4-hour chart also slightly below the overbought line at 76.54, thus providing yen bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is neutral at 58.68 on the daily chart, with dealer (4HR) chart also neutral at 57.97. MACD is treading flatly above the zero line on the daily chart, while the MACD on the (4HR) chart is pointing upward above the zero line.

...more...

Dollar's Turn to Fail

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1823&Itemid=39

As usual, Friday action made the week. The greenback finally broke the 1.2000 barrier, but the move which occurred during the thin Tokyo session was so quick, that euro bears barely has time to cover their shorts before the unit popped back up.Instead of our usual punditry, this week we offer the following two charts which clearly point to a slowdown in US Industrial demand. Under such circumstances, it is very difficult to imagine a continuation of the tightening monetary policy from the Fed. If we are indeed correct and market sentiment begins to price in the end of the tightening cycle, focus will shift from selling euro’s to selling dollars, as the central reason for dollar strength will disappear.

...lots of charts...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

10. Oil over $60 on demand, Iran worries

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-06-27T132234Z_01_N27319237_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-OIL-DC.XML

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices hit a new record above $60 a barrel on Monday, driven by demand growth resilience in the face of high fuel costs and worries about oil policy under Iran's new hardline president.

U.S. August crude traded as high as $60.64 a barrel and by 1200 GMT was up 55 cents at $60.39. U.S. crude is above $60 for every month until August 2006 with December 2005 setting a peak $61.90 a barrel.

London Brent set a record $59.21 a barrel before easing to $58.91, up 55 cents.

"The market is testing higher to see what price levels this demand can endure," said Naohiro Niimura, vice president at the derivative products division of Mizuho Corporate Bank.

Prices have risen as investors bet refiners and producers will struggle to meet winter demand in the fourth quarter.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Aug crude trades in record territory above $60 ($60.50 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38530.4213234954-837361586&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude futures climbed to fresh record territory above $60 a barrel in early New York trading. August crude traded as high as $60.50, the highest intraday prices for a lead contract ever. It was last at $60.35, up 51 cents. "The Iranian election was just enough to get the market over the $60 hump," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading. But while the election was supportive, oil "remains a demand-driven market," he said.

10:01am 06/27/05 AUG CRUDE TOPS $60 IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:01am 06/27/05 AUG CRUDE AT $60.45/BRL, UP 61C, OR 1%

[UpInArms]

32. August Crude at $60.90 bbl

12:51pm 06/27/05 JULY HEATING OIL UP 1.7% AT $1.679 A GALLON

12:52pm 06/27/05 JULY UNLEADED GASOLINE UP 1.5% AT $1.68 A GALLON

12:52pm 06/27/05 JULY NATGAS DOWN 1.8% AT $7.225 PER MILLION BTU

12:51pm 06/27/05 AUGUST CRUDE UP 1.8% AT $60.90

[UpInArms]

38. Oil: $70 a possibility, but price moves seen unstable: analysts

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5F825C89%2D55C1%2D454C%2D92DA%2DA3B7E57DB4EE%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures' climb to record highs isn't over yet and $70-a-barrel crude can't be ruled out, but anxiety over the inflated price has analysts and traders worried the bubble may burst.

Prices for the August contract hit a high of $60.95 a barrel during the New York session Monday. That's the highest price the front-month contract has ever seen. See Futures Movers.

"If all things stay as they are, or if there is any major disruption or refinery shutdown ... you could see crude oil trading in the low $70s by the end of the year," said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International.

Shorter term, prices could climb as high as $62.50 by the end of the week with demand showing no signs of a slowdown ahead of the July 4th weekend, said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading.

...more...

[ozymandius]

49. Oil Prices Climb Above $60 Per Barrel

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices settled at a record high above $60 a barrel on Monday, reflecting traders' concerns about strong demand and potential supply bottlenecks.

Oil broker Tom Bentz at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York said Monday's rally was just a continuation of the larger uptrend that began in late May.

Bentz said there is also a speculative component to the surge in oil prices, though he also believes that the world's limited excess production and refining capacity have played important roles in keeping traders on edge about potential supply disruptions.

-cut-

"The psychology of the market is that once $60 is breached, then there is tendency to test how much higher it can go, or how long $60 can be sustained," said Victor Shum, petroleum analyst at Texas-headquartered energy consultants Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

more

[UpInArms]

11. 10:07 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,312.80 +14.96 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,048.74 -4.53 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,191.92 +0.35 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 3.922 +0.08 (+0.20%)

NYSE Volume 245,201,000
Nasdaq Volume 240,458,000

10:00AM: Major indices still trade in split fashion as sector leadership remains mixed... Energy has paced the higher, benefiting from higher oil prices and analyst upgrades on SLB (+1.6%) and BHI (+2.6%)... Consumer Staples has traded higher, due in large part to a 3.0% surge in Walgreen (WAG 45.69 +1.31) following better than expected Q3 results... Health Care, however, has been under pressure following downside FY06 EPS guidance from Cardinal Health (CAH 56.31 -4.20) while a lower than expected Q2 earnings outlook from International Paper (IP 31.61 -0.84) has weighed on the Materials sector... NYSE Adv/Dec 949/1468, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 895/1485

9:40AM: Market opens with a tinge of caution amid underlying concerns about the economy and slowing profit growth... Oil prices above $60/bbl are weighing on early sentiment, but the possibility that Q2 earnings may only come in around 7-8% - the slowest growth in two years and well below aggregate EPS growth of 13% and 21% enjoyed in Q1 and Q404, respectively, - has also underpinned a sense of nervousness...

[UpInArms]

13. 10:41 EST numbers and blather (market loves $60+ oil)

Dow 10,330.29 +32.45 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,052.88 -0.39 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,193.76 +2.19 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 3.910 -0.04 (-0.10%)

NYSE Volume 418,791,000
Nasdaq Volume 386,601,000

10:30AM: Stocks still mired in relatively tight trading ranges as investors find little incentive to more aggressively buy stocks ahead of this week's two-day FOMC meeting as Q2 comes to a close... While the Fed is widely expected to announce another 1/4% hike in the fed funds rate target on Thursday, uncertainty continues to loom as to when rate hikes will actualy end - when the Fed may finally settle on the definition of a "neutral" fed funds rate... NYSE Adv/Dec 1160/1688, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 899/1744

[Roland99]

15. Dollar down, oil up, stock market up

:woohoo:



Can we have what they're drinking and smoking?

[UpInArms]

21. U.S. investor optimism rises on real estate -study

:smoke:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-27T151756Z_01_N27283447_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-OPTIMISM-SURVEY.XML

NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - U.S. investor optimism edged up in June as investors grew more enthusiastic about the real estate market, but sentiment was still near three-month lows, a survey showed on Monday.

The UBS index of investor optimism rose to 54 in June, up from 50 in May, according to the monthly poll of about 800 investors by UBS and the Gallup Organization.

However, the index was still well below the 82 points it posted in February when it touched a 7-month high, as rising energy prices, inflation worries, and lagging concerns about corporate scandals continue to weigh on overall optimism.

Furthermore, the majority of investors think real estate is a better investment than the stock market, despite rising concerns that rapid gains in U.S. housing prices have inflated bubbles in some U.S. regions.

About 67 percent of investors polled felt real estate is a more profitable investment, and 77 percent said real estate is a safer investment than stocks, the survey showed.

...more...

:smoke:

[UpInArms]

14. Fannie Mae mortgage portfolio drops for 7th month

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-27T143254Z_01_N27186971_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FANNIEMAE-PORTFOLIO.XML

NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the largest U.S. home funding company, said on Monday its mortgage portfolio slumped by an annualized 28.9 percent in May to $828 billion, its seventh straight monthly drop.

The portfolio has been downsized by an annualized 19.1 percent so far this year, as some in Congress battle for legislation that curbs or slashes the company's mortgage holdings in the wake of an accounting scandal.

Fannie Mae's portfolio purchases of $11.2 billion last month were overshadowed by portfolio sales of $17.8 billion, the company said in its monthly business summary. More than $7 billion of the sales were part of a transaction to resecuritize non-agency REMIC securities that had been held in the portfolio.

The company's mortgage portfolio grew 0.7 percent in all of 2004.

Fannie Mae has been slicing its portfolio to build its capital cushion and meet regulatory requirements as it works through accounting problems that it has said will trigger a multibillion-dollar earnings restatement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. US Treasury to sell $8.00 bln 4-week bills Tuesday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-27T150614Z_01_WAT003371_RTRIDST_0_HOLDECONOMY-BILLS-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it will sell $8.00 billion of four-week bills on Tuesday, June 28.

The bills will be issued on June 30.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund approximately $15 billion of publicly held four-week securities maturing on June 30 and to pay down approximately $7 billion.

The four-week bills announced on Monday mature July 28.

Treasury said $11.20 billion of bills can be excluded when bidders calculate their net long positions. The net long position reporting threshold is $2.80 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. US Treasury to sell $18.00 bln 14-day bills Wednesday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-27T151339Z_01_WAT003373_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CASHBILLS-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it will sell $18.00 billion of 14-day cash management bills on Wednesday, June 29.

The bills will be issued on July 1 and will mature on July 15, 2005. The Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $6.3 billion.

Noncompetitive bids must be received 11:00 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) and competitive bids by 11:30 a.m. EDT (1530 GMT).

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. US Treasury to sell $20 bln 2-year notes Wednesday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-27T150822Z_01_WAT003372_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-NOTES-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it will sell $20.00 billion of two-year notes on Wednesday, June 29.

The bills will be issued on June 30.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund approximately $23.73 billion of publicly held notes maturing on June 30, 2005 and to pay down approximately $3.73 billion.

The two-year notes announced on Monday mature June 30, 2007. The Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $7 billion.

Noncompetitive bids must be received noon EDT (1600 GMT) and competitive bids by 1:00 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).

...more...

WTF! $42 BILLION in ONE WEEK?!??!?

:argh:

Mortgaging our children and our grandchildren's futures for this sack of shit mal-administration's failed fiscal policies :argh:

:banghead:

[Roland99]

25. Yeah, but half of it is short-term

:P

[UpInArms]

26. you are so funny!

:rofl:

Like that won't just be rolled over into something else!

And with what are we going to pay off these notes? Our great and rising consumer driven GDP?

:rofl:

[Roland99]

27. Of course! And that oil revenue from USA-East

Sheesh...get with the program!


:P

[UpInArms]

22. Key Treasury yield hits three-week low

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFB40FEB9%2DFDD1%2D4D3A%2DBE83%2D4293A385305F%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Government bonds remained in favor to start a new week as steep oil prices were seen as a risk to global economic growth.

"Rising energy costs have unsettled investors because of the potential damage to consumer spending and corporate profits," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist with Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group.

Investors have turned more defensive, pushing up the benchmark 10-year Treasury note 3/32 to 101 23/32.

The note's yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) stood at 3.91%, down from 3.92% at Friday's close.

The 10-year yield, a key influence on mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, hit 3.89% earlier Monday. That matched its low of June 8 and rests just above a 14-month low, with U.S. government debt on track to close its best quarter in nearly three years.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. 11:14 EST numbers and blather (did they quit hitting the "snooze" button?)

Dow 10,293.00 -4.84 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,047.63 -5.64 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,191.04 -0.53 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 3.903 -0.11 (-0.28%)

NYSE Volume 556,312,000
Nasdaq Volume 495,931,000

11:00AM: More of the same for the averages as blue chips and their Nasdaq counterparts continue to trade in opposing directions... Meanwhile, the Utilities and Materials sectors have recently turned positive; but as the least influential of the ten economic sectors - with weightings of just 3.4% and 2.9%, respectively, on the S&P - neither has had much of an impact on the overall market... DJUA +0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1438/1498, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1070/1662

[UpInArms]

23. Asian giant awakes to push its weight

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/asian-giant-awakes-to-push-its-weight/2005/06/27/1119724580208.html?oneclick=true

The Foreign Investment Review Board had no trouble approving Xstrata's takeover of WMC Resources. But it might have to think harder about a state-controlled Chinese company hungering to take over a major Australian miner.

To date, Chinese companies have struck joint ventures and supply agreements with Australian resources companies rather than making outright bids, investing more than $2.2 billion in the process.

But that strategy may have officially ended last week after China National Offshore Oil Corp made a groundbreaking $US18.5 billion ($24 billion) bid for Unocal. The offer has dragged China's third-largest oil company into a takeover fight against Chevron Corp.

<snip>

Chevron's board includes a former US senator, a former US trade representative and the current chief executive of defence contractor Northrop Grumman. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice was a Chevron director for a decade before joining the Bush Administration. The company even named a tanker after her.

Although the US Treasury's Committee on Foreign Investments will deliberate about the national security implication's of the Chinese bid, the ultimate decision rests in the hands of the President, George Bush.

...more...

Huh?

[UpInArms]

24. CAFTA deal is bad news

http://www.rockymounttelegram.com/opin/content/news/opinion/stories/2005/06/27/20050627rmtcafta.html

The effects of NAFTA on North Carolina should give pause to supporters of another proposed trade agreement.

Since the ratification of the North American Free Trade Agreement, North Carolina has lost more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs — exactly the effects that NAFTA critics predicted during the debate over that free trade agreement in the early 1990s.

Congress is now considering the Central American Free Trade Agreement — CAFTA — which would extend NAFTA-like trading preferences to El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic.

The Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committees last week signed off on this latest free-trade deal, but the agreement faces strong opposition in Congress. The Bush administration had hoped to win approval of the treaty before Congress' July 4 recess — but for the moment at least, congressional leaders say they do not have the votes to pass the measure.

Supporters of the agreement contend it will stimulate commerce between the United States and the six Central American nations and that expanding free trade always helps extend economic benefits to the countries involved. But the combined economies of the six countries covered by the deal were worth about $85 billion in 2003 — less than that of the Czech Republic. That's hardly a burgeoning market that can draw a hefty surge of U.S. exports.

...more...

[AnneD]

34. Yeh...

everone laughed at Ross Perot and his 'large sucking sound' comment about NAFTA, but here we are today. We export jobs and tax bases in exchange for cheap crap and debt.

[UpInArms]

35. this mal-administration and its policies are one

giant sucking sound.

[AnneD]

40. I remember a sly political commentator once stated

Repubs do to the country what they wish they could do to their wives. I would much rather that sucking sound come from the oval office than China, or the Carribean....oh well.

[UpInArms]

28. 12:11 EST numbers and blather (mixed)

Dow 10,317.86 +20.02 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,051.92 -1.35 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,193.61 +2.04 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 3.907 -0.07 (-0.18%)

NYSE Volume 756,106,000
Nasdaq Volume 661,677,000

12:00PM: Market still trades in split fashion midday amid concerns about the economy and slowing profit growth as oil prices again touch record highs... With crude oil prices trading above $60/bbl - rising on fears that Iran's newly elected government may hurt output - and the possibility that Q2 earnings may only come in around 7-8% - the slowest growth in two years, bargain hunting opportunities following last week's drubbing have so far stalled in the early going...

Ongoing uncertainty ahead of Thursday's FOMC meeting, with regard to an eventual end to further rate hikes, has also underpinned a sense of nervousness that has left the ten economic sectors evenly mixed... Pacing the way to the upside continues to be Energy, benefiting from higher oil prices, analyst upgrades on Schlumberger (SLB 78.05 +1.59) and Baker Hughes (BHI 51.85 +1.45) and a turnaround in shares of Unocal (UCL 65.98 +0.30), which opened lower after lawmakers urged President Bush to review CNOOC's $18.5 bln offer for the refiner... Consumer Staples has also traded higher, benefiting primarily from strength in Walgreen (WAG 45.99 +1.61), which has surged 3.7% after posting better than expected Q3 earnings...

Materials has also posted a modest gain, as Dow Chemical (DOW), which was discussed favorably in Barron's as an excellent buying opportunity, has helped offset modest weakness in International Paper (IP 31.61 -0.84), which guided Q2 earnings below consensus... Interest-rate sensitive areas like Utilities and Homebuilding have also shown relative strength, taking advantage of falling bond yields...

[ozymandius]

29. 12:38 numbers and blather

Dow 10,316.56 +18.72 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,050.60 -2.67 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,193.63 +2.06 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 39.13 -0.01 (-0.03%)
NYSE Volume 830,222,000
Nasdaq Volume 721,472,000

12:30PM: Little changed since the last update as the major indices continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Meanwhile, even though the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq last week lost 3.1%, 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively, the majority of the selling pressure was witnessed in the Transportation... Disappointing Q4 earnings and downside guidance from FedEx (FDX 80.12 +0.02) provided the bulk of the weakness while losses in airline and railroad stocks today have spurred follow-through selling interest...

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which outpaced every major index last year with a 20.8% gain, is now among this year's worst performers with a year-to-date loss of over 10.0%... DJTA -0.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1547/1590, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1192/1688

[UpInArms]

30. Allstate to pay $34 mln in Calif. overcharge case

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-27T161251Z_01_N27429676_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-ALLSTATE-SETTLEMENT.XML

NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - Allstate Insurance Co. on Monday said it will offer about $30 million in credits and pay a $4 million fine to settle allegations that it overcharged on about 250,000 auto and homeowner policies in California.

The unit of Northbrook, Illinois-based Allstate Corp. (ALL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) will pay the fine to California's insurance department, and offer credits on policy renewals, Allstate spokesman Rich Halberg said.

The No. 2 U.S. home and auto insurer did not admit wrongdoing. Allstate said the settlement will not affect second-quarter results because the company had previously set aside reserves. The Los Angeles Times previously reported the settlement.

"This settlement closes the books on the ... administrative review and clears the way for an improved relationship between Allstate and the department," said Robert "Hank" Barge, an Allstate vice president, in a statement.

California accused Allstate of not always providing the best rates, failing to provide multi-policy discounts to some customers who insured both homes and cars with Allstate, and improperly using a credit score that it said could push some individuals into higher-cost plans.

...more...

Gee, and we all thought that those insurance companies were "acting in the best interests of the consumer". :sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

31. Vital Signs for the Week of June 27

he Federal Reserve meets for two days to discuss monetary policy. It would be a genuine surprise if the central bank decided to do anything but raise its key fed funds rate by another 25 basis points to 3.25%. Once again, the Fed's words will likely speak louder than its actions, as markets will dissect the post-meeting press release.

The latest economic data will likely lead Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and company to state that the upside and downside risks to economic growth and price stability are about the same. With the fed funds rate currently at 3%, the real level of interest rates, which accounts for inflation, remains fairly low.

TOO LOW? Using the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation buried deep inside the personal income report coming out on Thursday, June 30, the real fed funds rate is currently at 1.4%. That is probably still too low for the Fed.

Indeed, according to the Bond Market Association's Economic Outlook report in December, the BMA's Economic Advisory Council believed a neutral real fed funds rate --- a level that neither inhibits or stimulates growth --- would be in the neighborhood of 2.5%.

more...

[UpInArms]

33. S&P says may cut Lear to junk on restructure cost

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-27T165632Z_01_WNA3604_RTRIDST_0_BA-AUTOS-LEAR-S-P-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Monday said it may cut Lear Corp.'s debt ratings to junk status, citing the company's plan to incur a charge of up to $250 million to restructure.

S&P currently rates the company's corporate credit and senior unsecured debt at "BBB-minus," the lowest investment-grade rating.

So can someone tell me why are M&As and restructures a good thing?

[UpInArms]

36. 1:16 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,296.77 -1.07 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,046.85 -6.42 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,191.55 -0.02 (-0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 3.903 -0.11 (-0.28%)

NYSE Volume 942,199,000
Nasdaq Volume 819,565,000

1:00PM: Sellers show some resolve within the last 30 minutes as oil prices break out to new session highs... However, even as crude oil futures ($60.95/bbl +$1.11) touch another new record, the blue chip indices have found modest support around the unchanged mark... Key support levels for the Dow and S&P are at 10280 and 1188, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 1598/1555, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1229/1687

12:30PM: Little changed since the last update as the major indices continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Meanwhile, even though the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq last week lost 3.1%, 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively, the majority of the selling pressure was witnessed in the Transportation (-5.0%)... Disappointing Q4 earnings and downside guidance from FedEx (FDX 80.12 +0.02) provided the bulk of the weakness while losses in airline and railroad stocks today have spurred follow-through selling interest...

[Roland99]

37. I still say there are artificial supports keeping the market from crashing

Gov't influence?

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

39. I wonder the same thing. The lab work is critical....

and yet the 'patient' lives.:crazy:

[AnneD]

43. I agree....

been thinking that for some time now. Numbers just don't make sense and the reaction of the market to news is sooo strange. And there are WAAAAAYYYY to many corrections to report numbers after their potential influence on the market has been muted. I think the illness that affects the MSM also is affecting the financial MSM. It is in the best interest of the big boys to maintain the status quo and get more suckers into the side show tent before they fold up. Well, to paraphrase Rod in Jerry Maquire, I've been to the puppet show and have seen the strings.

[Burried News]

42. If one factors in the inflation over the last 4+ years tracked above

it is clear that in 'real' dollars, the dow, nasdaq and s&p have fallen more than 12% in that time.

[UpInArms]

44. 2:24 EST numbers and blather (and bye!)

Dow 10,277.20 -20.64 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,042.23 -11.04 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,190.09 -1.48 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 3.900 -0.14 (-0.36%)

NYSE Volume 1,165,775,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,012,351,000

2:00PM: Market spikes to session lows as the major averages struggle to find support near key technical levels... Without any specific news catalyst to account for this recent downturn in stocks, as oil prices continue to trade around $60.70/bbl, it can be speculated that an asset allocation trade out of equities and into bonds may be a contributing factor, as the 10-year note (+6/32) yielding 3.89% again trades near session highs... NYSE Adv/Dec 1567/1631, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1212/1759

1:30PM: Stocks bounce off recent lows but market internals still suggest a slightly negative bias... Decliners on the NYSE hold a slim 16 to 15 advantage over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold a 17 to 11 margin over advancing issues... The ratio of down to up volumes on the Big Board and the Composite also suggests a sense of nervousness among investors, but with total volume below the pace of the last few sessions, there has been little conviction behind recent recovery efforts (or the latest pullback)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1511/1661, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1196/1749

(edited for html)

:hi:

gotta run - see you all later!

[AnneD]

45. Thanks UIA

hope you have a good rest of the day.

[Roland99]

46. 3:01pm and little changed

DJIA 10,274.60 -23.20
Nasdaq 2,042.30 -10.97
S&P 500 1,190.21 -1.36
Russell 2000 627.39 -3.02

30 Yr Bond 4.19 -0.03
10 Yr Bond 3.90 -0.01

[ozymandius]

47. 3:28 and all's sour

Dow 10,306.58 +8.74 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,046.59 -6.68 (-0.33%)
S&P 500 1,192.30 +0.73 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 39.02 -0.12 (-0.31%)
NYSE Volume 1,439,304,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,235,092,000

3:00PM: Indices continue to languish near their worst levels of the day as the recent recovery effort seems to have stalled... Meanwhile, several entertainment companies have been in focus today after the Supreme Court ruled against file-sharing websites (i.e. Grokster)... Even though the recent ruling is a major victory for blue chips like Walt Disney (DIS 25.54 -0.50), Time Warner (TWX 16.87 -0.23) and Viacom (VIA.B 32.19 -0.45), all three continue to trade near session lows...

Surging on the news, however, has been DreamWorks Animation (DWA 26.46 +1.26) while Pixar (PIXR 50.32 +0.26) has also traded higher...NYSE Adv/Dec 1525/1729, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1152/1856

[ozymandius]

48. Stocks Decline in Late Afternoon Trading

NEW YORK - Stocks barely budged Monday as Wall Street steadied itself after last week's losses and waited for the Federal Reserve's meeting on interest rates. Fears that second-quarter earnings could disappoint also weighed on the market.

The Fed's Open Market Committee is widely expected to raise rates for the ninth time in a year when it meets Wednesday and Thursday, but investors are waiting to see policymakers' assessment of the economy, to be issued at the end of the meeting.

Until the Fed's intentions are clear, investors are likely to do very little, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "Is this the ninth inning or are we going into extra innings?" he said.

more...

[ozymandius]

50. just before the close & blather

Dow 10,297.61 -0.23 (-0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,044.90 -8.37 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,191.34 -0.23 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 39.02 -0.12 (-0.31%)
NYSE Volume 1,590,100,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,363,295,000

3:30PM: Now that the commodities market has closed, renewed buying interest going into the close has lifted the blue chip indices back above the flat line... Even though oil prices closed up 1.2% at another record high, it appears the market has found some leadership from Energy (+1.7%)... The Energy sector has become increasingly influential amid expectations that the sector's 29 components will average Q2 earnings growth of 26%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1526/1756, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1215/1810

[Roland99]

51. Oil nears $61 on demand and Iran worries

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2005-06-27T175739Z_01_SP75844_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-MARKETS-OIL-DC.XML

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose a dollar to a new record near $61 Monday, driven by the resilience of world energy demand in the face of high fuel costs and worries about oil policy under Iran's new hardline president.

U.S. crude for August by 1700 GMT traded at a new high of $60.95 a barrel, up $1.11. U.S. crude is above $60 for every month to October 2006 with December 2005 setting a peak $62.35 a barrel.

London Brent set a record $59.59 a barrel, up $1.23.

"The market is testing higher to see what price levels this demand can endure," said Naohiro Niimura, vice president at the derivative products division of Japan's Mizuho Corporate Bank.

[ozymandius]

52. closing numbers, blather included

Dow 10,290.78 -7.06 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,045.20 -8.07 (-0.39%)
S&P 500 1,190.69 -0.88 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 39.02 -0.12 (-0.31%)
NYSE Volume 1,738,620,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,515,420,000

Close: Stocks opened with little fanfare and closed in similar fashion amid worries that higher energy costs - as oil hit another record high - may crimp corporate profit margins and consumer spending... For the fifth day in a row, crude oil futures ($60.54/bbl $+0.70) hit all-time highs, surging 1.2% to close above the psychological $60/bbl for the first time ever, nearly eclipsing $61/bbl, amid concerns that Iran's newly elected president may hurt output by limiting foreign investment...

While oil over $60/bbl is clearly not good for the economy or stocks, the absence of any notable economic and earnings data to set a more a definitive tone to trading perhaps placed even more emphasis on the commodity's overall economic impact, especially ahead of this week's FOMC meeting... Even though the market has deemed it a foregone conclusion that the Fed will raise rates another 1/4% on Thursday, investors appeared nervousness that the continued surge in oil prices may prompt the Fed to keep hiking rates at a "measured pace" for months to come instead of showing signs of an eventual end to its tightening efforts... Meanwhile, seven out of ten economic sectors closed in negative territory...

Even after the S&P said it expects operating earnings for IT companies to rise 17% in Q2, strong follow-through selling interest continued to weigh on Technology - the day's worst performing sector... Health Care was also an influential leader to the downside as a warning from Cardinal Health (CAH 56.43 -4.08) that FY06 earnings will come in lower than analysts' forecasts overshadowed news of a $1.0 bln share buyback, a dividend doubling to $0.06 and expectations that Q2 EPS should reach the upper half of $3.10-3.20 (consensus $3.14)...

G'night all.

Ozy :hi: