NYT: Secular Shiites in Iraq Seek Autonomy in Oil-Rich South

[DeepModem Mom]

Secular Shiites in Iraq Seek Autonomy in Oil-Rich South
By EDWARD WONG
Published: June 30, 2005


BASRA, Iraq, June 27 - With the Aug. 15 deadline for writing a new constitution bearing down, a cadre of powerful, mostly secular Shiite politicians is pushing for the creation of an autonomous region in the oil-rich south of Iraq, posing a direct challenge to the nation's central authority.

The politicians argue that the long-impoverished south has never gotten its fair share of the country's oil money, even though the bulk of Iraqi oil reserves lie near Basra, at the head of the Persian Gulf. They also say they cannot trust anyone holding power in Baghdad because of the decades of harsh oppression under the Sunni Arab government of Saddam Hussein.

"We want to destroy the central system that connects the entire country to the capital," said Bakr al-Yasseen, a former foe of Mr. Hussein who spent years in exile in Syria. He is one of the chief organizers of the autonomy campaign, which is supported by Ahmad Chalabi, the one-time Pentagon favorite and scion of a prominent Shiite family from the south, among others.

Mr. Yasseen, who has ties to Jalal Talabani, the Iraqi president and a Kurd, is demanding for the south the same broad powers that the Kurds now have, including an independent parliament, ministries and regional military force.

The Kurds have long demanded a strong measure of autonomy in a future Iraqi state. But the issue of an autonomous south is new, and complicates the already heated discussions on federalism in the new constitution. The religious Shiite parties and the Sunni Arabs have generally opposed Kurdish autonomy, but the emergence of a southern drive for greater regional independence could lend important support to the Kurds' quest....


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/30/international/middleeast/30basra.html

[Tempest]

1. The civil war is coming

A breakup of Iraq would be disasterous to the Bush policy.

The Kurds would support the PKK, the Sunnis al-Qaeda and the Shiites are forming their own terrorist group.

Fun for all.

[quaoar]

2. Also sounds like Chalabi

is trying to consolidate a base in the south.

[daleo]

3. I understand most of the oil is in the south and north

Many of us have thought this may be the long term PNAC plan: split Iraq into three, with two of the balkanized nations oil rich and ripe for the plucking (southern Shiites and northern Kurds). The troublesome Sunnis in the center could mostly be ignored. This also would defang Iraq as a potential threat to Israel.

One downside would be the possible strengthening of Iran, though, since the southern Shiite nation would come very much under their influence. The northern situation could also be a problem, since Turkey would object rather strongly to a Kurdish nation. But Bush will flail around in those two quagmires when he comes to them.