Astronauts strapped in for launch

[Ripley]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/space/07/26/space.shuttle/index.html


KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, Florida (CNN) -- Discovery crew members boarded the space shuttle Tuesday morning as they prepare for liftoff at 10:39 a.m. ET.

Commander Eileen Collins was the first to board, giving a confident wave to NASA cameras before entering the cockpit.

The mission is scheduled to last 12 days.

Godspeed Discovery. My fingers are crossed.

[sleipnir]

1. It's either success or doom.

I think they will succeed!

But, I'm not sure I'd go up if NASA can't seem to get the shuttle working 100% so they change the rules for launch....

[Massacure]

3. They didn't change the rules for launch.

They rewired the fuel sensors in a way that would better allow them to know why it was failing if it in fact failed again. But it is working now anyways, so that is irrelevant.

[spinbaby]

2. Godspeed

[gademocrat7]

4. Was in Titusville visiting family

and to see the launch. But it was scrubbed an hour before liftoff. Hope all goes well today.

[SpiralHawk]

5. Dear NASA: Please check the ephemeris

Mercury is Retrograde until August 15.

Just thought someone should tell you.

Good luck.

[KoKo]

6. Does it affect them, though, since this is a second attempt at launch?

Otherwise "Mercury Retrograde"....:scared:

[jus_the_facts]

7. hope that dust storm that's supposed to be headed towards Fl....

....doesn't cause any problems. :shrug:

[Ripley]

8. Minutes to go...

Gee, no one seems to care about this story on DU. :shrug:

[mccoyn]

9. Live webcast.

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html

I don't have any speakers on my work computer. It took me three tries to connect, but I eventually go through.

[gratuitous]

10. Watching on ABC

Charles Gibson keeps asking the NASA folks if they're nervous, and keeps going back to his point that if anything goes wrong, it's the end of the shuttle program. It almost sounds like he wants something to go wrong.

To their credit, the NASA pros uniformly are saying to Gibson that they're confident they've done everything they can think of, and they're not nervous. Gibson is disappointed no one will say he's nervous.

And there's lift-off. Looking good for the first minute.

[Ripley]

12. HISTORY! First Female Commander for a shuttle!

Fly baby Fly!!!

[proud patriot]

11. Blast off

:hi:

[mccoyn]

14. It always surprises me how big that flame is. -nt

[gratuitous]

13. Solid rocket boosters jettisoned

Looks textbook, shuttle climbing nicely.

[gratuitous]

15. Who's the director for ABC?

Idiot keeps jumping between screens, which are all full of all sorts of information, and just as you're figuring out what you're looking at, he switches to an animation, then the simulated telemetry, then a live shot, then another screen.

Either that, or a spastic monkey is punching buttons and flipping switches in ABC's control room.

[Ripley]

16. Go to CNN..they're holding it on cool shot from shuttle itself...

See Earth in background and hopefully see tank leave...

[gratuitous]

17. Separating from external fuel tank

Nice clean separation. Discovery is nearly in orbit. Takes about 10 minutes. Amazing.

[Ripley]

18. It makes me tear up.

It is so amazing.

[daleo]

19. Shuttles have had a failure every 50 flights or so

That rate might pick up a bit due to aging, but there probably won't be another incident for quite a while, based strictly on statistical reasoning.

[Psephos]

20. Probability doesn't quite work that way...

It's not like an earthquake, where tension builds over time, until it releases.

You're quite right about the failure rate, but in single-event terms, it says almost nothing about what will happen next launch. The idea that averages smear evenly over time is a mathematical fallacy.

If you flip a coin randomly and get five heads in a row, the chance of heads on the next toss is still exactly 50-50.

Peace.

[daleo]

21. I said there probably won't be another incident soon

Not that there won't be another incident soon, or there can't be another incident soon. So, I can't see anything wrong with the statement.

On edit - I don't see how you can take anything but a frequentist approach for an event of this complexity.

[Psephos]

22. No biggie, maybe I read you wrong n/t

[daleo]

23. That's ok, I didn't mean to snap

I thought about this some more. Really, a life table approach gives an interesting perspective. If you use that approach, and assume the shuttle ages somewhat like a person, NASA might just have quite a few failures coming up soon.

I believe 2 of 5 shuttles have failed now, which is 40%. A standard life table for Canadian males shows 20% have died by 65 years of age, 40% have died by 74 years of age, 50% by 78 years of age, 60% by 81 years of age, and 80% by 87 years of age. By the nature of biological aging (assuming low rates of infectious disease death) there isn't a lot of failure for a long time, then there is quite a bit. So, if the shuttle ages in somewhat the same way, NASA could be in trouble. It seems possible this could be the case, as a shuttle is also a very complex entity, and most parts aren't replaced on a regular basis (somewhat like a human being).

Of course with only 100 flights, and only 2 failures it is all very speculative. One would expect NASA should have reasonable models that can be compared to the shuttle (e.g. high performance aircraft), and would be taking this into account. Then again, the political pressures might be overriding good engineering practice.