STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 18 August

[ozymandius]

Thursday August 18, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 156 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 241 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 305 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1362
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 17, 2005

Dow... 10,550.71 +37.26 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq... 2,145.15 +8.09 (+0.38%)
S&P 500... 1,220.24 +0.90 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.27% +0.05 (+1.09%)
Gold future... 445.20 -6.30 (-1.42%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Willie CB

ENERGY ALLIANCE & US ISOLATION

The world of energy has many faces in the past two years. As the Middle East and Caspian Region encounter growing US Military presence, alliances have formed and are solidifying along the periphery. The battle is for the untapped oil in the Caspian Region in the former Soviet Republic territories. The trends regarding the politics of energy have become intertwined with military weapon supply, military troop commitment, and nuclear technology. The danger comes from the nuclear component, since it can operate under the guise of peaceful electrical power generation. With only slight diversions from the centrifuge refinement process, and with mere rerouting of spent fuel processing, a nuclear weapons capability is born. Delivery becomes the key question, as in missiles. As a result of exerting its own dominance, the United States is working its way into a corner on the world arena, too large to control anymore. A formidable alliance has been in the formative stages among China, Iran, and Russia. It will change the world of commodity commerce. The Iranian oil bourse will directly challenge the Petro-Dollar system, as they will sell oil and natural gas in euro terms. Expect the USA to challenge and undermine their attempts.

ALIENATION & SLUMBER

Alienation is new with Europe, the traditional ally whose feathers are continually ruffled. Tested by the questioned support for the Iraqi War, the NATO alliance is shaky and might be reliable only if push comes to shove. Alienation with the Islamic world is longstanding even among supposed allies, as partners hold their noses when they shake our hands. Alienation with China and Russia is growing, much the downwind effect from trade battles and grappling squabbles over the former Soviet Republics over oil & gas deposits. Conflicts have arisen over pipeline construction and more dangerously, over military base construction. The USA might continue to dominate the core, with finance and Middle East petro and Iraqi military entrenched positions. However, the United States in NO WAY controls the periphery, where new alliances have begun to form, solidify, and broaden. The bulk of the periphery includes China, Russia, India, Iran, and splinter nations such as Venezuela. Hugo Chavez has emerged as the modern-day Qaddafi in South America, a veritable thorn in the side of American leaders. He has the potential to disrupt not only oil supply to the US but refined gasoline as well. US Troops are actively defending the oil pipeline in Colombia against local terrorist groups, a little known fact.

-cut-

FROM DOMINATION TO ISOLATION

The Iraqi War had a great many motivations. The surface justifications are hardly defensible, but well traveled. If not for soldier deaths, they would be amusing. The other several reasons stand the test of time. Stem the sale of oil for euros, establishment of military bases, securing oil supplies, and locking down all multi-billion energy contracts, these reasons are anything but secondary advantages for the United States. They are primary. The world response, sure to be accelerated by the failed attempts by China to acquire Noranda (copper) then Unocal (oil & gas), is to develop alliances outside the US sphere of influence.

An enormous test comes over the horizon with the Iranian Oil Bourse. The sale of oil & natural gas is without question to be conducted in a currency besides the USDollar, namely the euro. That will surely tweak the US leadership noses. Upcoming competition is heralded between this new bourse and the International Petroleum Exchange in London, and the New York Mercantile Exchange. The world’s Petro-Dollar system will soon be directly challenged. Anyone who thinks the Chinese yuan currency basket announcement is not somehow centrally important to the Iranian oil bourse creation, is sadly clueless. The Chinese currency delink to the USDollar next will undermine the Petro-Dollar system itself.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

37. Have I mentioned lately how much I love Jim Willie, the Golden JackAss?

[ozymandius]

2. Stocks set to open lower on profits

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures pointed to a weaker market open on Thursday after lackluster earnings from retailers Hot Topic Inc. (Nasdaq:HOTT - news) and Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE:LTD - news), while Google Inc. (Nasdaq:GOOG - news) fell after the Web search company said it planned to sell another $4 billion in shares.

Shares of Google Inc. (GOOG.O) fell nearly 4 percent to $274 after it said it has filed with regulators to sell up to 14.16 million shares of class A common stock.

Shares of Hot Topic fell nearly 9 percent to $14.40 before the bell on the Inet electronic brokerage system after the teen retailer reported second-quarter results that missed Wall Street forecasts.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Stock market indicators mostly negative as oil price moves higher

TORONTO (CP) - Global indicators were mostly negative for North American stock markets early Thursday as crude oil prices headed up again and investors awaited U.S. economic reports.

Wall Street futures suggested a weak start for regular trading and European indexes dropped in early action after a report of weak retail sales.

Japanese stocks rebounded as investors snapped up technology and auto issues, but smaller Asian markets shrugged off Wall Street's Wednesday gains and extended their losses.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Oil Prices Post Gains After Big Drop

BUDAPEST, Hungary - Crude oil prices posted gains Thursday, a day after plunging nearly $3, amid renewed concerns about gasoline shortages and supply disruption in Ecuador and Nigeria.

"We do not believe that the oil market has yet fully convinced itself that more than $60 is sustainable in terms of growth, and until that occurs, any move much higher is likely to be rather fleeting," Paul Horsnell, head of energy research at Barclays Capital in London, wrote in a research note.

The front month September contract for light, sweet crude gained 26 cents to $63.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in midday European electronic trading. The contract slipped to a session low of $62.80 in earlier trading.

On Wednesday, the contract slid $2.83 to settle at $63.25, amid selling from hedge funds and other speculators after the market's recent rally, which saw prices rise as high as $67.10 Friday.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Funny thing about gas prices in my area.

As the cost of oil has moved upwards so has the cost of gasoline - even intraday price increases. But as the price of oil has dropped over the last two days, the cost of gas has not. When I fill up this weekend I can expect to pay no less than $2.58/gal for regular.

[54anickel]

7. Morning Ozy - funny how that works, ain't it? Got the same thing here

and I suspect it's that way all over the country. Maybe someone will let us know if they've seen it go down in their area.

Gas in my neck of the woods is at $2.76/gal, but then again we have the reformulated stuff.

[ozymandius]

8. Georgians have some relief.

We have some of the lowest gas taxes in the country. Still $2.58 is a bitter pill to swallow. I have seen some prices for regular in the metro Atlanta area going as high as $2.73/gal.

Gas is always cheaper in the burbs. But living in the burbs is a punishment unto itself with these devilish commutes.

EDIT: subject line

[54anickel]

11. Heh, gotta love that line about sustainability

...the oil market has yet fully convinced itself that more than $60 is sustainable in terms of growth, and until that occurs, any move much higher is likely to be rather fleeting...

Maybe they'll wait a spell and see if folks are hurting enough to reduce consumption - if we ain't "crying uncle" in a way that cuts demand they'll assume it's sustainable again. :eyes:

[ozymandius]

13. I think we are being desensitized.

You're right about the price increases: prices will not stall until consumption decreases.

We will have to wear those thumbscrews a little longer.

[54anickel]

14. Commuters seek ways to cover rising gas prices (We're trying)

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2005-08-17-work-gas-usat_x.htm

Rising gasoline prices have some workers searching for ways to curb costs, from ditching their cars to taking the subway to quitting jobs to find work closer to home.

The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) has seen average weekday bus and metro rail boardings jump from 1.4 million in June 2004 to 1.5 million in June of this year. July figures also are expected to be up.

snip>

How some are coping:

• Kevin Rudden, 51, left his job to work closer to home. He had been driving 30 to 40 miles a day each way. His commute now is 10 miles door to door. He had been spending more than $100 a week on gas. Now, it's $35. Hmmmm, how much of a 'real' pay cut did he end up taking?

"Every time the cost of gas went up, I took a pay cut," says Rudden, at public relations firm Kel & Partners in Hopkinton, Mass. "I can't go to my boss and say I need a raise because the cost of gas is up."

• With gas prices for her SUV topping $100 a week, Alicia Agugliaro is trying to save money by packing her own lunches, diet soft drink and coffee to take to work at Liberty Travel, a travel agency based in Ramsey, N.J. She estimates that she saves enough to pay about a third of her gas bill by cutting back. She drives 65 miles one way.

more...

[ozymandius]

17. $100 a week!!!

I wonder if she has a car payment. She assuredly has insurance. This is like a second mortgage if she answered 'yes' to both.

[54anickel]

20. 40, count 'em - FOR-R-R-R-R-R-TY F'ING GALLONS A WEEK!!!

Now I understand my European relatives always bitchin' about how wasteful we "American pigs" are.

She is the poster child for rationing stamps!

[54anickel]

33. Had to share this from the back of an old War Ration Book

Rationing is a vital part of your country's war effort. This book is your Government's guarantee of your fair share of goods made scarce by war, to which the stamps contained herein will be assigned as the need arises.

Any attempt to violate the rules in an effort to deny someone his share and will create hardship and discontent.

Such action, like treason, helps the enemy.

Give your support to rationing and thereby conserve our vital goods. Be guided by the rule:
"If you don't need it, DON'T BUY IT."


HA! This type of action today would bring our consumption economy to a screeching halt. Instead the idiot-n-thief had to cry out for all to shop.

[punpirate]

38. Ozy, some of this...

... business of gas prices staying high after small drops in crude prices is the general attempt in the industry to freeze refinery capacity at its current near 100% levels.

Now, if we had a real government, they'd go after the big companies owning the refineries for collusion. Some of it is pretty bald-faced. I was just reading about Shell's refineries in California. Several years ago, Shell picked up a few refineries in its part of the deal to get all of Equilon when Chevron and Texaco merged (they'd shared ownership of Equilon, a refining and retailing concern, with Texaco).

The FTC and several states thought letting Texaco keep its share of Equilon would be too much of a monopolization of the retail business (44% in Washington state), so it was all sold to Shell. The first thing Shell tried to do was close one of its three California refineries, which would have the effect of creating a local shortage. A consortium of consumer groups filed suit against Shell, claiming that they were attempting to manipulate the market. Shell then claimed that they were obligated to their stockholders to close an unprofitable facility.

Then the consumers found Shell documents that showed that not only had the refinery been profitable in prior years, it had showed a $2 million quarterly profit in the quarter just before the closure announcement was made.

Went `round and `round for a couple of years, and they reached a settlement with Shell. Shell agreed to sell the refinery to a third party. But, their latest wrinkle (which will probably take the case back into court) is that they will only sell the refinery, and will not sell the tank farm next to it. Can't run the refinery without the tank farm....

All over the country, there are these little schemes going on to keep gasoline prices artificially high by restricting refinery capacity.

Cheers.

[ozymandius]

42. What a great story.

At the same time - it's just perfectly criminal how the market has been manipulated.

[54anickel]

46. Them lousy bastards!!!...eom

[54anickel]

22. Goldman Lifts Oil Forecast to $68, Sees $60 for Years

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aB5bwfjqFwEo&refer=us

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the third- biggest U.S. securities firm by market value, raised its oil forecast for next year to $68 a barrel and said crude will stay at about $60 for years to come.

Goldman increased its projection for New York prices for 2006 from $55 a barrel. The forecast for $60 oil for the ``long term'' was raised from $45 because companies aren't investing enough in new supply, according to the Aug. 17 report from the firm's commodity research analysts, including Steve Strongin in New York and Jeffrey Currie in London.

``Reinvestment rates if anything appear to be falling not rising,'' the report said. Higher taxes, a shortage of rigs and workers and a lack of available oil and gas reserves are all driving up costs, the analysts said.

Goldman Sachs earlier this year was criticized after an equity analyst there, Arjun N. Murti, said oil prices could experience a ``super spike'' to $105 a barrel should supplies be disrupted from the Middle East. Goldman is one of Wall Street's two largest commodity traders, along with Morgan Stanley.

Goldman and Morgan Stanley each get more than $1 billion a year in revenue in the $60 billion-a-day energy-trading market, according to estimates by Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Brad Hintz in New York.

more...

Ugh - and figure in what the drop in the buck's gonna add to that as well. Doesn't it seem like the world markets are holding back a bit on rate hikes in an effort to temporarily support the buck?

[ozymandius]

6. Jobless Claims Rise by 6,000

WASHINGTON - The number of newly laid off Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week but still remained at levels indicating a strong labor market.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for unemployment benefits totaled 316,000 last week, a gain of 6,000 from the previous week.

That increase was above the 2,000-person rise that economists had expected, but the level of laid-off workers remained well within the range that signals the labor market is continuing to improve.

Employers created 207,000 new jobs last month, the best showing in three months, helping to keep the unemployment rate at a low level of 5 percent.

more

[54anickel]

21. But hey, nothing to worry about here - it's good 'nuff!

snip>

Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, said the recent performance of jobless claims was consistent with his view that payroll growth will be even stronger in the second half of this year.

Forecasters believe that the labor market will continue to improve as long as soaring energy costs don't jolt business and consumer confidence and cause cutbacks in spending.
DOH!!! :hurts:

[54anickel]

28. Those highly questionable US employment gains

http://www.ameinfo.com/65685.html

Popular opinion has it that businessmen tend to be dishonest, lawyer's liars, religious people 'good', the army honorable with a high standard of conduct and morals, and that government represents the people.

do agree that some businessmen (that is most of them) are not particularly honest and that lawyers need to twist the truth in order to get some of their guilty clients off the hook. We also know by now that the conduct of the military - irrespective whether it is made up by a bunch of terrorists or West Point graduates - is anything but honorable.

What still needs to be badly deflated is the faith people have in government - in particular the faith of investors in the accuracy of the statistics published by the government agencies needs to be badly shaken. In fact, I am a believer that governments from China to the US will endlessly twist statistics around to suit their political agenda, and worst of all, the public and the investment community then buys them.

snip>

have pointed out before that the US economic expansion is not driven by capital spending, industrial production and employment gains but purely by appreciating real estate prices, which allow households to extract money form their homes by increasing and refinancing their mortgages. I think the above statistics which show declining real incomes and a deterioration in the quality of employment, in as far as high paying jobs are replaced by low paying jobs, confirm this view.

In addition, one sector where employment is growing strongly and in in which weekly earnings are high, is construction. In June the construction sector added 18,000 jobs and weekly earnings rose according to Bill King from $751.16 in May to 757.37 in June. But, since construction jobs are related to the greatest housing bubble in modern history, one can only imagine what will happen to these relatively well paying jobs when the housing bubble bursts….

more...

[ozymandius]

9. pre-open blather

EDIT: 9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.1.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5.

Futures market is little changed since the last update as current indications continue to point to a negative start for the cash market... Disappointing guidance shared by several retailers since yesterday's close has served as the key deterrent for buyers... As a reminder, tomorrow is an options expiration day

8:36AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.5.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0.

Initial claims slightly higher than expected at 316K (consensus 310K), but futures market paying little attention as the proximity to consensus estimate mitigates any outsized response

[54anickel]

10. Daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i

Last trade 88.37 Change +0.37 (+0.42%)

Settle 88.00 Settle Time 23:33

Open 87.90 Previous Close 88.00

High 88.37 Low 87.86

The September Dollar higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off last week’s low. Wednesday’s breakout above the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.56 signaled that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.27 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during the last half of August. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.



Market Looks to Manufacturing to Support Dollar Rally

The US dollar rally enters its 4th day, looking for further evidence of regional manufacturing strength to help add to its gains. With the New York Fed’s Empire survey (released earlier this week) showing continued strength among manufacturers in the region, the market now turns to today’s release of the Philadelphia Fed survey for confirmation that regional manufacturing in the US remains strong.

The Philly Fed survey is expected to show an increase in its general economic index to 13.5 in August from last month’s value of 9.6. If this assumption is correct, it would represent its highest level in four months and would add further support to the dollar.

Also of note is the release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator, which is projected to increase 0.2% in July. Although this is lower than June’s jump of 0.9%, it is still higher than the -0.1% average for this year.

Disappointing data extends euro drop to day 4

Although consumer inflation in the Eurozone came in as expected, increasing 2.2% (Y/Y) in July, as rising energy costs kept the overall index value above the ECB’s target of 2.0% for the sixth straight month, the euro continues to decline against the dollar, dropping 1.7% in the last four days as it eyes support at $1.22.

The impetus for this morning’s drop in value of Europe’s single currency came not only from the relative tameness of core inflation – which was unchanged at 1.4% (Y/Y) – but also from disappointing industrial production data. Given the strong showing by both Germany and France, there was some speculation that industrial production – forecasted to increase 0.4% in June – would surprise on the upside. However, output in the Eurozone rose by only 0.3% and data for May was revised down to -0.4% from -0.3%. Thus, with the eurozone still experiencing growing pains, its common currency was pushed to yet another fresh two-week low.

snip>

The recent decline in the yen, it seems, has less to do with Japan’s economic growth potential, which according to recent reports by the Bank of Japan looks good, but rather more to do with the fact that the US continues to raise interest rates while Japan has kept its rate near zero for the past for years. Consequently, the yield differential between the US 10-year note and that of its Japanese counterpart is 284 basis points. Thus, investors may be clamoring for Japanese equities, but this appears to be outweighed by the markets desire for dollar-denominated assets.

more...

Seems the buck's up and everything else is down today - euro, loonie, pound, yen, gold... :shrug:

[54anickel]

12. Getting to the "Core" of Inflation Propaganda

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=45710

Yesterday the Labor Department reported that July Consumer Prices rose by 0.5%. Today we were informed that July producer prices rose an even sharper 1%. Though these are very serious numbers, indicative of a chronic inflation problem, Government officials, Wall Street strategists, and the financial media tell us not to worry. Excluding energy prices, the so called “core” CPI rose a benign 0.1% and the “core” PPI a somewhat less benign 0.4%. Measuring inflation while excluding energy prices makes about as much sense as dieters weighing themselves while excluding all the fat around their stomach, hips and thighs. Just how did this ridiculous concept get started in the first place?

Food and energy prices have historically been quite volatile, up big one month, down big the next. To prevent economists from jumping to erroneous conclusions the concept of the “core” CPI was developed. It has been argued that by looking at the monthly numbers without these volatile components, economists get a more accurate read on the true impact of inflation on consumer prices. Excluding food and energy in no way implied that such prices were not important components of the indexes, just that their prices tended to be more volatile, and hence less relevant on a monthly basis.

In 2002, when oil prices began their steady ascent from $20 per barrel, the common wisdom held that the rise was a temporary phenomenon based on global terrorism and the build up to the Iraq War. As a result, economists began ignoring the actual CPI in favor of the “core” as everyone knew that rising oil prices were a temporary phenomenon. Based on that false analysis, at least it made some sense to exclude rising oil prices, since the belief was that higher prices would ultimately be reversed. However today, with oil prices above $65 per barrel, and more economists having resigned themselves to the inevitability of even higher oil prices in the future, why is anybody still looking at the core?

Since 2002, oil prices have been anything but volatile. They have in fact been quite predictable, rising steadily for four years. In such an environment, excluding them when measuring inflation is a farce. Yesterday, CNBC showed a graphic which revealed the divergence between oil prices and the over-all CPI. Though historically the two have been highly correlated, recently they have diverged. CNBC’s conclusion was that the U.S. economy was now so efficient that oil now has less influence on over-all consumer prices. :spray: Far simpler and credible an explanation is that either the data is being manipulated, or the lag between rising oil prices and rising consumer prices in general has lengthened.

more...

[AnneD]

32. Morning Marketeers

:donut: I am in the data manipulation camp thank you. They have done it to the regular news so what's to keep them from doing that to the financial news.
A daily commute to my 2 jobs is 62 miles I have a network of stores, laundries, cheapest gas stations etc along the way so I can do things on the route. Sadly, my church is so far out of my travels that I may have to go every other week. I am try to find someone to commute with on Sundays but am not having any luck.

[54anickel]

34. Morning AnneD. I'm with you on that one the data has been soooo

skewed for soooo long - nobody really knows which end is up anymore.

[AnneD]

44. It took me a while...

to see how skewed my beloved news had become. Once I accepted that reality, it was a short hop to stolen elections and an even shorter hop to fraudlent market data.

[ozymandius]

15. markets are open for bidness

9:32
Dow 10,534.71 -16.00 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,137.78 -7.37 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,218.70 -1.54 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.24% -0.03
NYSE Volume 18,685,000
Nasdaq Volume 42,531,000

[54anickel]

16. Labor group to organize Wal-Mart workers

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-08-18T090943Z_01_N18283041_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-RETAIL-WALMART-LABOR-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Labor leaders from around the world will meet in Chicago next week to draft a plan to organize Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) workers in certain countries, including Brazil, Argentina, Germany and the United Kingdom, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

The newspaper said that devising a Wal-Mart strategy is a priority for the annual conference of the Union Network International, a federation based in Europe that represents more than 15 million workers in 100 countries.

UNI would not identify the countries to be targeted, but said it would focus on those where high percentages of the work force are unionized, which likely would include Brazil, the Journal said.

Will the US be left behind to become the next banana republic? Seems the world is in the process of writing us off - Thanks Repukes!

[54anickel]

18. Selling short in your 401(k)

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05229/555313.stm

Mutual funds that mimic hedge funds' investment strategies are increasingly finding their way into retirement plans.

These mutual funds buy stocks but also resemble hedge funds in that they engage in short-selling, or bets that shares will decline. They are being pitched as an alternative to hedge funds but without many of the drawbacks: steep minimum investments, withdrawal restrictions and limited transparency.

In recent years, these hedged mutual funds have targeted mostly individual investors. Many of these funds are sold through financial advisers and the minimum investments can vary from $1,000 to $10,000 and higher. Now, however, an increasing number of companies that operate these funds are targeting a much broader audience by marketing themselves as an investment option for 401(k) retirement plans. The aim is to tap into the $1.6 trillion in mutual-fund assets sitting in defined-contribution plans.

The sales effort is part of a growing trend toward making sophisticated alternative investments, such as real-estate investment trusts and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, available to workers in their formerly plain-vanilla 401(k) plans. The hedge-like mutual funds -- which are mostly offered by small fund companies -- typically charge higher fees than do most mutual funds and are designed to give workers options beyond stocks and bonds in their retirement portfolios.

Proponents of such options say they give workers broader access to the investments used by big institutional investors, and that including 5 percent to 10 percent of a diversified portfolio in alternative investments can help reduce risk over time. Another school of thought argues that fewer choices actually is better, because research has shown that some investors may become overwhelmed with too many options, and that retirement plans aren't the place to take on the risks inherent in short selling and other alternative investments.

more...

Must be lookin' for new blood :shrug:

[54anickel]

19. Nuclear industry hopes to capitalize on surge in China

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2005-08-17-china-nuclear-usat_x.htm

Within weeks, the Chinese government is expected to announce an $8 billion nuclear-reactor order that is just the beginning of a commercial bonanza the beleaguered nuclear industry has long craved.

snip>

The frontrunners for the initial contract, widely expected to lead to lucrative follow-on orders, are Westinghouse, a British-owned company whose nuclear operations are based in Monroeville, Pa., and Areva of France. The Russian firm AtomStroyExport is regarded a distant third.

In the United States, industry executives hope the Chinese reactor surge will help spawn a nuclear renaissance here at home. Nuclear power provides 20% of U.S. electricity, up from 11% at the time of the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania. But amid persistent concerns over cost, safety and radioactive waste disposal, no new reactors have been ordered in 27 years.

snip>

Earlier this month, President Bush signed energy legislation that encourages new reactor development with tax credits, federal risk insurance and loan guarantees. Yet even as the industry contemplates a potential windfall at home and abroad, some critics say trading state-of-the-art nuclear technology to the Chinese could end up costing the U.S. financially and fueling the spread of nuclear weapons.

"You don't build new nuclear power plants for a country that's building up its military and threatening to use nuclear weapons against the United States," says Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., referring to a Chinese general's recent statement that China would employ nuclear weapons against the U.S. in any conflict over Taiwan.

Silly Dana - this is bidness!!! Profits to be made all around for both the nuclear industry and the military industrial complex. Why another arms race is just what the doctor ordered. Now hush up and don't trouble your beautiful mind.

more...

[54anickel]

23. 20% of recent home buyers spend half of pay on mortgages

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20050818-9999-1b18homes.html

California study says rate doubles national average

More Californians are stretching their finances to afford the state's ever-more-expensive homes, with 20 percent of recent home buyers plowing more than half their monthly income into their mortgages.

These "house-poor" Californians have been a significant contributor to the state's housing boom, according to a study by the Public Policy Institute of California, a Bay Area nonprofit think tank.

snip>

It concludes that many recent buyers aren't rich newcomers but moderate-income thirtysomethings who are accepting hefty mortgage payments to get into the market.

The percentage of recent California home buyers spending half their monthly income on housing is twice the national average, said Hans Johnson, who co-authored the study.

snip>

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development generally recommends that no more than 30 percent of monthly household income go to housing, although lenders say that standard is outdated.

more...

[54anickel]

24. Wall Street's Fate Caught Up With Housing

http://www.forbes.com/home/investmentnewsletters/2005/08/04/centex-meritage-housing-bubble-toll-cz_js_0804soapbox_inl.html

WHITEFISH, MONT. - Of course, a lot can change quickly on Wall Street. And the current climate carries special risks. We’re not talking about oil recently hitting a record $62 per barrel, or Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s new warning of more rate hikes ahead, or even China’s revaluation of the yuan against the dollar this week. We’re talking about the growing danger from real estate. And yes, folks, even with the risk of our being mislabeled doom-n-gloomers again (as we were during the Wall Street bubble of 1998-99), we are officially calling it a dangerous “Bubble.”

For the reason why, simply compare this graph of our Bellwether Index for the housing sector with the Internet bubble of the late 1990s (see graphs below). Our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index--a composite of 12 of the most sensitive stocks in the housing industry, including Toll Brothers (nyse: TOL - news - people ), Meritage Home (nyse: MTH - news - people ) and Centex (nyse: CTX - news - people )--is now in a parabolic rise, up 1,323% since January 2000. That exactly matches the parabolic rise in prices and psychology during the Internet mania.

So while Alan Greenspan tries to assure U.S. markets that real estate is not in a bubble (and even if it is, it’s not the Fed’s job to manage the bubble), we personally believe his tough rhetoric and actions are focused directly at that sector. Let’s hope he’s more successful than he was in dealing with the Internet bubble.

So while oil prices, rate hikes and the dollar dominate most U.S. headlines, we believe the greater risks lie in when and how this housing boom cools. Of course, the Fed is denying that an overall bubble exists in the real estate sector, and it's pretending to be disinterested in the debate. However, we firmly believe the Federal Reserve’s actions, as well as Alan Greenspan’s tough rhetoric, are now clearly focused on halting the parabolic rise in real estate speculation and leverage.

more...

[54anickel]

25. Lawyer: Merck hid Vioxx risk for years

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/17/news/fortune500/merck.reut/index.htm

ANGLETON, Texas (Reuters) - Merck & Co. Inc. hid clinical evidence for years that showed Vioxx posed a heart attack risk, the lawyer for the plaintiff told a jury Wednesday.

"We've seen a decade of deception by Merck," Mark Lanier told the panel in closing arguments of the first civil trial against the drugmaker's popular painkiller.

But Merck's own lawyers held to their defense that the company had done nothing wrong.

"Merck acted responsibly, from researching Vioxx prior to approval in studies with almost 10,000 patients, to monitoring the medicine while it was on the market, to voluntarily withdrawing the medicine when it did," said Kent Jarrell, spokesman for Merck's defense team, in an e-mail to CNN/Money. "We based our decisions on the data from well controlled clinical trials."

The case is the first of more than 4,200 civil suits filed against the company over Vioxx, which was introduced in 1999.

more...

[54anickel]

26. Bank of England's Rate Schism Is Poised to Widen

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=aokHKdS_LA0o

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. monetary policy, which Bank of England Governor Mervyn King says should be ``boring,'' just got a lot more interesting.

King this month earned himself the dubious distinction of becoming the first U.K. central bank chief to be outvoted on monetary policy. The schism between policy makers who see a need for lower borrowing costs to bolster growth and those more concerned about accelerating inflation looks set to widen.

Five of the Monetary Policy Committee's nine rate-setters voted to cut the key lending rate by a quarter-point to 4.5 percent on Aug. 4. Charlie Bean, the chief economist, cast his third consecutive vote in favor of a reduction, assuring himself of a solo lunchtime seat in the canteen by siding with the bank's four independent members to overrule the other four full-time employees, including King.

snip to the bizarro>

More than 50,000 Britons draw income from selling secondhand goods on Internet sites such as EBay Inc., the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research said this week. Adam Smith's ``nation of shopkeepers'' is becoming a race of junk dealers. No wonder the U.K. economy is heading into the ditch.

Your Logo Here

Among the Britons using EBay's U.K. site to boost their wealth and confidence are Paula, who's offering to have a company logo tattooed on her lower back for 2,000 pounds ($3,620); Jenny, who's auctioning the story of her husband's hernia operation; and someone called crasswarrior whose piece of toast burned with an image of Jesus Christ is available for 10,000 pounds, and who declined to answer questions by e-mail.

``If people realize that they have sellable goods sitting in their cupboards, it ought to increase consumers' confidence just like any other unexpected boost to wealth,'' :spray: said CEBR economist Laura Phaff in a press release. With the health of the U.K. economy depending on such shaky foundations as rising stocks, a declining pound and digging secondhand trinkets out of the attic to flog them over the Internet, the Bank of England is unlikely to stop for long at a 4.5 percent rate.

[54anickel]

27. Fed May Not Stop Inflation

http://www.merkfund.com/merk-perspective/insights/2005-08-18.html

U.S. wholesale prices (PPI) rose a full 1 percent in July as energy costs surged. This is the biggest one month increase in 9 months, and twice the increase that had been predicted; the so-called “core measure” that excludes food and energy rose 0.4%, the most since January. Note that the PPI shows month-to-month changes, not an annualized number. The report follows the recent consumer price index release whose “core” number was in-line with expectations; the “core” number, while excluding food and energy, did not exclude the steep discounts given in the automotive industry.

While some tell us that inflationary pressures are temporary and primarily due to bottlenecks in the energy sector, we have long argued that inflation in all commodity prices is not a temporary supply issue, but driven by the global imbalances. Global over-production to sell to the U.S. consumer is fostered through low interest rates and tax cuts in the U.S. and subsidized exchange rates in Asia. So far, the U.S. consumer has enjoyed low prices as U.S. manufacturers cannot pass on higher raw material prices due to a flood of competing cheap Asian imports. Goods and services that cannot be imported from Asia have had substantial inflation in recent years – we shall only mention the cost of health care and education.

While some production and refining shortages may be temporary, we believe the upward pressure on commodity pressure and downward pressure on the dollar will persist as long as global economic policies do not change. The enormous U.S. current account deficit and a non-existent U.S. savings rate (American households use their homes as ATM machines) are a reflection of imbalances in place.

Even as China has moved to a basket of currencies to provide a mechanism to de-couple from the dollar, we see neither China nor the rest of Asia giving up trying to sell to the U.S. consumer anytime soon. Similarly, in the U.S., the administration has made it clear that growth is its top priority; as a result, we believe that the administration will appoint a successor to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Greenspan who is pro-growth; we mention former Fed Governor and the administration’s current Chief Economic Advisor Ben Bernanke as a likely candidate. Bernanke has become known for his quote that he would be willing to throw money out of helicopters to keep an economy from falling into deflation; he is also known as an advocate of managing the entire yield curve actively, not just short-term rates as is the traditional domain of central banks.


more...

[54anickel]

29. Get Ready for World War III

http://www.antiwar.com/roberts/?articleid=6936

With every poll showing majorities of Americans both fed up with Bush's war against Iraq and convinced that Bush's invasion of Iraq has made Americans less safe, the White House moron proposes to start another war by attacking Iran. VP Cheney has already ordered the U.S. Strategic Command come up with plans to strike Iran with tactical nuclear weapons.

Bush refuses to meet with Cindy Sheehan, instead using his vacation time at the Crawford ranch to talk war with Israeli television. In a recent interview with Israeli TV, Bush said "All options are on the table" with regard to Iran.

Likudnik Israel is Bush's last remaining ally, or egger-on, in his war against "Islamic terrorism." Israel, which is loaded with nuclear weapons and is not a signatory to the nuclear pacts, is the accuser against Iran, asserting that Iran's nuclear energy program is just a veil behind which to produce weapons. Israel's Likud Party fears that Iranian weapons would be a check to its plans to complete the dispossession of the Palestinians and further expand Israel's borders.

Iran has signed the nonproliferation pact and is willing for the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor the nuclear energy program.

Bush, however, dismisses all facts and assurances and is willing to attack Iran based on nothing but Israel's paranoia.

more...

[punpirate]

39. Kind of hard to imagine that...

... Paul Craig Roberts was once a contributor to the WSJ's editorial pages, isn't it?

[54anickel]

30. 10:47 Dow just breaks the surface for air

Dow 10,551.01 +0.30 (+0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,138.31 -6.84 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,219.10 -1.14 (-0.09%)
10-yr Bond 42.46 -0.27 (-0.63%)
30-yr Bond 44.52 -0.23 (-0.51%)
NYSE Volume 460,283,000
Nasdaq Volume 398,216,000


10:30AM : Market again showing resilience in the face of selling pressure as bears have found it difficult to gather much momentum in the early-going... Relatively low interest rates and solid earnings growth overall continue to be underpinning factors for investors looking at weakness as a buying opportunity... Separately, crude futures (-$0.35 at $63.50/bbl) continue to do some backpedalling and have helped mitigate some of the concerns related to recent pronouncements from the retail industry that rising gas/oil prices are impacting sales...
To be sure, if oil prices continued to back up, it could only be viewed as a positive in terms of the inflation and consumer spending outlook... NYSE Adv/Dec 799/2027, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 806/1719

10:00AM : Major indices remain in red figures, as buyers have yet to show much conviction... Losses, however, are fairly modest in scope with retailers leading the retreat... At the moment, there isn't a single S&P industry group sporting a gain of more than 1.0%... Pockets of relative strength, though, are found in groups known to have a defensive orientation, namely personal products (+0.95%), managed care (+0.43%), gold (+0.30%) and household products (+0.74%)...

Conversely, semiconductor stocks are comprising one of the core pockets of relative weakness, as evidenced by the SOX Index, which is down 0.80%... The Leading Indicators report just came out and was shown to be up 0.1% versus a consensus estimate that called for an increase of 0.2%... Market not likely to show much interest in the report, though, since it is comprised mostly of previously known numbers... NYSE Adv/Dec 550/1951, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 580/1761

9:40AM : As expected the cash market has started the day on the defensive with a lack of bullish catalysts keeping buyers on the sidelines... Retailers are helping to pace the downside action as several companies - Hot Topic (HOTT 14.16, -1.65), Limited (LTD 22.00, -1.28), Cost Plus (CPWM 21.01, -0.53), Gamestop (GME 28.73, -0.72) and Bombay (BBA 4.20, -0.05) to name a few - issued disappointing guidance for the October quarter...

[ozymandius]

31. 11:28 numbers and blather

Dow 10,545.60 -5.11 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,137.28 -7.87 (-0.37%)
S&P 500 1,218.37 -1.87 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.238% -0.03
NYSE Volume 634,919,000
Nasdaq Volume 534,596,000

11:00AM: More of the same for the major indices, which continue to trade below the unchanged line... While losses aren't severe, the inability to show upside vigor is related to the absence of influential leadership... To wit, the information technology sector (-0.50%) is a downside pacesetter and is joined by telecom services (-0.50%) and consumer discretionary (-0.50%)... The leadership that exists is found primarily in defensive areas...

Specifically, the consumer staples sector (+0.80%) is a winning standout today, with tobacco (+2.80%) the best-performing area after the Illinois Supreme Court decertified the Avery class action... Not surprsingly, Altria Group (MO 69.96, +2.10) sits atop the list of Dow winners... NYSE Adv/Dec 965/1947, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1001/1646

EDIT: I must run for awhile. Back wen I can this afternoon.

Ozy :hi:

[loudsue]

35. Thanks Ozy!

:hi: See ya later!

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

36. 1:00 numbers, then I've gotta run out and try to make a buck or two

Dow 10,558.03 +7.32 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,138.06 -7.09 (-0.33%)
S&P 500 1,219.09 -1.15 (-0.09%)
10-yr Bond 4.227% -0.05
30-yr Bond 4.433% -0.04
NYSE Volume 936,709,000
Nasdaq Volume 759,231,000

12:25PM : Some modest improvement since the last update, but nothing to really write home about as each of the major indices continues to dance around the unchanged line... The aforementioned improvement was helped along by the better than expected Philadelphia Fed Index, as well as a pullback in oil prices (-$0.40 at $63.45/bbl)... Market internals, however, reflect the uphill battle bulls are facing at the moment as decliners are outpacing advancers at the NYSE by nearly a 2-to-1 margin...
The gap is narrower at the Nasdaq, but still noticeable with the margin of declining issues over advancing issues being 9-to-5... NYSE Adv/Dec 1052/2037, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1025/1779

12:00PM : Unsettled by another spate of earnings warnings from the retail industry, the major indices went on the defensive at the opening bell and spent nearly the entirety of the morning session below the unchanged line sporting modest losses... Sellers, however, have been unable to gather any real momentum as a drop in long-term rates (10-yr +10/32 at 4.22%) and underlying strength in the economy have acted as supportive influences that have kept selling efforts in check... Nonetheless, there is a decidedly defensive tone to today's trading that resonates in today's leadership groups...

Tobacco (+3.60%), gold (+1.50%), personal products (+1.30%), and household products (+1.2%), which are known for their defensive characteristics, are among the best-performing areas... Conversely, economically-sensitive groups like steel (-2.30%), apparel (-1.50%), airlines (-1.30%), construction materials (-1.20%) and restaurants (-1.20%) are among the notable laggards... While it is mistake to extrapolate too much from a half day of trading, it can certainly be argued, given the disparate leadership, that concerns about the pace of economic activity won out in the morning trade...

That is understandable with retailers like Hot Topic (HOTT 14.33, -1.48), Cost Plus (CPWM 21.86, +0.32), Children's Place (PLCE 42.76, -2.14) and Limited (LTD 22.34, -0.94) all issuing guidance that fell below expectations for either Q3 or the full year... Be that as it may, the latest initial claims report, which showed a 6K increase in claims to 316K, was at a level that suggests August payrolls should rise at a rate consistent with the average of about 185,000 that has been posted so far this year...

Furthermore, the Philadelphia Fed Index, which measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region, checked in at 17.5, which was stronger than the market expected (consensus 14.0) and up from 9.6 in the prior month... On an individual basis, Altria Group (MO 70.75, +2.89) has been a standout in the Dow, as it has drawn support from the favorable implications of the Illinois Supreme Court decertifying the Avery class action suit against insurer State Farm...NYSE Adv/Dec 1018/2037, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 952/1844

[mouyard]

40. 2:00 Numbers

Dow Jones 10,574.43 +23.72 (+0.22%)
NASDAQ 2,142.32 -2.83 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,220.44 +0.20 (+0.02%)
10-yr Bond 4.228% -0.05
30-yr Bond 4.435% -0.04
NYSE Volume 1,121,173,000
NASDAQ Volume 929,232,000

[loudsue]

45. Welcome to DU, and to the Market Watch thread, mouyard!

:hi: Haven't seen you around before.... you post those numbers just like you're a regular around here!! :hi:

:kick:

[ozymandius]

41. Numbers are meandering all over the place today.

2:54
Dow 10,565.20 +14.49 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,136.89 -8.26 (-0.39%)
S&P 500 1,219.27 -0.97 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.224% -0.05
NYSE Volume 1,335,651,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,084,279,000

2:30PM: The afternoon uptick suffers a setback as the indices retrace the bulk of the improvement they made ove the course of the past few hours... Altogether the market remains mixed with neither buyers nor sellers showing much conviction.... Separately, the Treasury market, while quiet in its own right, is trading near its best levels of the day with the 10-yr note up 12 ticks and its yield at 4.22%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1276/1933, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1276/1658

[ozymandius]

43. at the close

Dow 10,554.93 +4.22 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,136.08 -9.07 (-0.42%)
S&P 500 1,219.02 -1.22 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 42.16 -0.57 (-1.33%)
NYSE Volume 1,794,492,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,391,637,000

Dow Finishes Up 4, Nasdaq Loses 9 As Oil Worries Continue to Plague Wall Street

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street struggled through an indecisive session Thursday, finishing mixed as investors grappled with higher energy costs, the prospect of declining earnings growth and a slower economy.

-cut-

Oil prices were volatile throughout the session, and investors remained jittery about the possibility of economic growth curtailed by high gasoline and heating oil prices. A barrel of light crude settled at $63.27, up 2 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling well below $63 per barrel during the day.

The Conference Board's latest reading of its index of leading economic indicators, a forecast of future economic activity, was somewhat encouraging with its prediction of modest economic growth. The index posted a 0.1 percent increase in July, less than the 0.2 percent economists had estimated and a sharp drop from June's 1.2 percent hike.

With mediocre economic data and little change in oil, the meandering trading session was unsurprising. However, the lack of a major selloff in recent days was cause for optimism, analysts said.

more