STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 2 September

[ozymandius]

Friday September 2, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 141 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 256 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 320 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1377
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 1, 2005

Dow... 10,459.63 -21.97 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq... 2,147.90 -4.19 (-0.19%)
S&P 500... 1,221.59 +1.26 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.02% -0.00 (-0.02%)
Gold future... 446.50 +8.40 (+1.88%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[whistle]

1. Excellent cartoon...as for the U.S. dollar, any predictions where...

...it will end up during the next 30 to 90 days?

[wli]

3. The toilet.

See the BBC.

[spotbird]

29. It's up a tad this AM

There isn't a safe place for money really, they'll get it no matter where you hide it.

[ozymandius]

4. UpInArms posts the daily dollar watch.

This morning's Jim Willie column addresses this issue too. UIA is probably busy at this moment collecting information as to where the dollar is right now and where it's going. Please check back when her work is posted. She's the local guru on these matters.

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Jim Willie CB

THE US DOLLAR & HINDENBURG

On my mind lately has been the nature of the USDollar. It is not backed by any hard asset like gold, but rather by massive debt. It could thrive if backed by the commodity in greatest abundance in the United States, namely coal. Well, get serious. If the USA backed the USDollar by coal, Asians would own my Pennsylvania, along with Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia in a matter of a few quick months. Worker output from coal mines would be directed to Chinese power generating facilities. Talk about the United States being backed into a corner! We as a nation must choose what assets foreigners will take ownership of. So far they have been foolish enough to accept Treasury credit securities. Paper IOU’s are a pure con game.

-cut-

TITANIC IN THE SKY

The USDollar bears many critical similarities to the old clumsy zeppelin. It is very difficult to turn the dirigible, just as economies are difficult to react to the havoc imposed by currency shifts and interest rate policy changes. Fiscal changes such as prohibitive taxes and stimulative spending are much like cross currents in winds aloft. The zeppelin is at constant risk from inclement weather, heavy winds, sudden downdrafts, lightning bolts, static electricity, and rolling thunder. Economic reaction to an overvalued currency has a direct impact, much like winds and the wind shear of downdrafts. The lightning might be from political arenas or sudden changes to tax & expenditure policy. The credit dependence from Asia to the US Economy is vast and acts like a powerful jetstream current. With interfered financial market mechanisms, a large “electrical potential” is building, positive in Asia, negative in the United States. The spark or discharge might come from politically driven protectionism, such as in trade tariffs.

-cut-

What will deliver the spark to the USS Zeppelin? Will it become a weenie roast? Please pass the marshmallows. My guess is hedge fund disasters, banking distress from a flattened yield curve, energy price spikes, housing decline, likely triggered by the end to US Federal Reserve rate hikes. Take your pick, perhaps all in combination. The risk of sparks is everywhere around us. Imbalances create such conditions for sparks. And yes, watch for the lethal friction from trade war, protectionist measures, and tariffs!!!

-cut-

News Tidbits

The New Orleans regional economy accounts for approximately 1% to 2% of the national GDP. More difficult to estimate is the ripple effect on the US Economy from higher gasoline costs, absent supply at certain stations, interrupted energy supply generally, and altered consumer behavior. And then you have the back-up in grain delivery and other commodity deliveries through the largest port facility in the United States. A vast network of railways and pipelines connect to the Mississippi Delta. It is my personal opinion that New Orleans, now ordered to evacuate, will soon be declared an environmental toxic waste zone. If foreign terrorists were to target one particular zone in the USA for maximum damage, it would be New Orleans, not New York City, not Los Angeles. My eye has been on Texas & Louisiana refineries for several months as the extreme Achilles Heel for our nation. Even Andrew Jackson realized this fact during the Civil War in the 19-th century, when he ordered extra defense by confederate troops of the New Orleans port for its railroad facilities. The situation will worsen from human liquid and solid excrement, decomposing human dead bodies, rotten tainted food, overflowed sewage, spilled fuel from broken storage cells, and even emerging coffins from swamped cemeteries. Available drinking water and food supplies are desperately in need. The next health risk might come from both dehydration and mosquito infestation, or generally from the spread of disease by insects. New Orleans, below sea level as a city, had kept water out from Lake Pontchartrain by means of numerous levees, two of which have broken. Other levees, if not broken, will be circumvented by rushing waters. Summer heat will act to make the city a boiling cauldron of infestation. The bowl shape nature of the city will contain the toxic agents to render the city uninhabitable for months. Despite the president’s claim of rebuilding the city soon, my personal opinion is that insurance companies will hand out cash claims but will refuse to insure new structures. This will threaten the viability of the city’s future. We may be witnessing the death of a city, an American Sudan tragedy.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[punpirate]

7. All probably true...

... but, as bad as things are in NO, it's not the extent of the problem. There's a significant effect across most of the Gulf Coast--including flooding as far as Mobile. There are entire small towns in Mississippi which have disappeared.

The economic effects of that, in total, will be far more than the 1-2% estimated from NO's near-destruction. Then add in the economic effects of a intermittent fuel shortages (from refinery shortages, not crude shortages), and everything from transportation to manufacturing to retailing is affected.

What does an 8-10% hit to the GDP do to investment from overseas?

[whistle]

9. Do you think insurance companies will walk, maybe that's why...

...federal assistance has been totally impotent in coming into the area. By allowing riots to break out and creating a war zone, insurance companies will be given an out and pay only gratuitous claims. FEMA still hasn't sent anyone in and Homeland security is downplaying and whitewashing the entire situation, HLS Director Chernoff (an attorney) claiming that government has done an admirable job so far.:wtf:

[Tace]

10. Interesting Take On Things -- I Don't Understand The Law Well Enough

[whistle]

13. It was the same tactic used here in Florida last year by Gov. Jeb Bush...

...even before hurricanes Charlie, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan made landfall, Jeb called the entire state a hurricane disaster area. People believed that this was to make FEMA relief funding available. Wrong, FEMA funding would have been available regardless and that declaration changed nothing regarding how federal disaster funding flows into the area.

No, it was to ensure that the insurance companies statewide would be able to implement the hurricane deductible rates (2% to 7% of the insured values of homes and commercial structures) rather than the normal or standard deductibles, which for most homeowners would have been $250 or $500 . Instead, the hurricane deductibles were typically $3,000 to $4.500 for the majority of homeowners in the stricken areas. Also, cash settlements could be forced on homeowners that were laced with depreciation loop-holes providing insurance funds that in thousand of cases in Florida have resulted in payments far below replacement values for damages. People and businesses in Florida thanks to Gov Jeb Bush's quick action on behalf of the insurance industry, are out by as much as half of the original claims and have had to take out 2nd mortgages at regular interest rates with FEMA providing little in the way of financial assistance.

[Tace]

14. Thank You Very Much For The Info

There's a spot right next to the fire downstairs for executives at the insurance companies.

[RPM_BU]

16. It wouldn't matter if it was before or after the hurricane hit

that is was declared a disaster area, the same deductible would still apply. So saying that it was done before to assist the insurance companies is a crock of crap.

[whistle]

18. Are you an insurance expert? Declaring an entire state a ....

...hurricane disaster area even though the hurricane devastated only sections of the state, allowed insurance companies to use the same deductible everywhere in the state from tornadoes to flooding to micro-bursts. The burden of proof rests with the person making the claim and the insurance companies can apply the blanket declaration by the governor. The people were screwed.

[punpirate]

19. You haven't been paying attention to what's happening in Florida...

... with regard to the Bushies and the insurance companies. One of the recent laws passed enabled the insurance companies, contrary to prior practice, to differentiate between wind and water damage--even if one contributes to the other. If the policy, even if written prior to a storm, involved contiguous damage, they are now liable to pay only for the wind portion, unless water is also specifically a part of the policy. This has the effect of halving the obligations of the insurance companies, no matter the way the policy was previously written.

The Bushies and their friends in the Florida legislature are doing their best to help the insurance companies in Florida, and your suggestion that it's a "crock of crap" means you really haven't been keeping up. You might want to check up on recent Florida law.

Cheers.

[UpInArms]

36. FACTBOX-Insurers' exposure to Katrina

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-02T103019Z_01_L02228666_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-INSURANCE-KATRINA-FACTBOX.XML

Sept 2 (Reuters) - Insurers have begun to make preliminary estimates of their exposure to Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast and may be the costliest U.S. storm in history, some industry analysts say.

Overall loss estimates remain startlingly wide, from as low as $9 billion to as much as $30 billion, and it could take weeks before insurers can get a clearer picture of the extent of the damage.

Reinsurers, which take risks that are too large or volatile for insurers to keep on their own balance sheets, may take the brunt of the claims, analysts have suggested.

Here is a list of the insurance companies that have made announcements on their expected claims from the hurricane, divided into European and U.S. companies.

...a list of corporations and what they expect...

[UpInArms]

67. Katrina may cause record U.S. insured losses-Fitch

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-02T150303Z_01_WNA7443_RTRIDST_0_INSURANCE-KATRINA-FITCH-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings on Friday warned that insured losses from Hurricane Katrina may set a U.S. record, adding they could be near the high end of or even exceed current estimates of $9 billion to $25 billion.

"Fitch does not expect insolvencies among the larger insurers, though some could face downgrades," the credit agency added in a statement.

...very short because they can't think of any more soothing noises to make...

[ozymandius]

5. Oil near record as U.S. runs short

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil stood at $69 and gasoline was in sight of record highs on Friday as a fuel crisis threatened in the United States and European policymakers struggled to find a coordinated response.

Hurricane Katrina killed thousands and knocked out U.S. rigs and refiners when it ripped through the Gulf of Mexico earlier this week. Oil prices soared to levels not seen in real terms since 1980, the year after the Iranian revolution.

As the world's biggest consumer ran short of gasoline, President George W Bush urged Americans to conserve fuel. European governments that have set aside emergency reserves of gasoline and heating oil were at odds over releasing stocks. European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said EU states were ready to give the United States oil if requested. But British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, speaking at the same meeting of EU foreign ministers, appeared to contradict Solana. "That frankly was not in people's minds because there is a world market in oil," he told reporters.

more

[whistle]

11. Iran offered assistance funds to Gulf victims and an unlimited

...supply of crude oil at $35 per barrel and Bush turned down the offer

[54anickel]

27. He wants cash - we haven't requested help, and if the world wants to

contribute, cash only please. :puke: At least that's what I got out of one of the threads last night.

Saw him on that morning show with Diane Sawyer - he also said something about the gov't standing ready with military aid, but there hasn't been any requests yet.

Now we have Blanco sounding like the ass-hole declaring "war on looters". :wtf: is wrong with this country?

[Delphinus]

38. You're kidding, aren't you??

How can he be so stupid at a time like this? Why are the media reporting on this HUGE tidbit of information? Repugs are going to be OUTRAGED by this!

[UpInArms]

40. the idiotsonofanutjob is grossly incompetent

and refuses to become a part of the 21st century.

This cabal talks about "global" economy and does everything in its power to keep the US in the dark ages.

:argh:

[UpInArms]

49. Here's a Reuters article itemizing what countries have offered the US

FACTBOX-Governments line up to help after Katrina

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-09-02T133135Z_01_L02304097_RTRIDST_0_WEATHER-KATRINA-AID-FACTBOX.XML

Sept 2 (Reuters) - Hurricane Katrina has devastated New Orleans and other parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast, killing hundreds of people and possibly thousands, and drawing pledges of support from all over the world.

The State Department said offers had come from Australia, Belgium, Britain, Canada, China, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, France, Germany, Greece, Honduras, Israel, Jamaica, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, NATO and the Organization of American States.

The United Nations has offered to help coordinate international relief. Following is a detailed list of aid offered by governments.

...the list...

They seem to have neglected to put Iran on that list :eyes:

[UpInArms]

31. AAA average daily retail gasoline price hits record $2.815

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B4D7644A7-0B63-4D8B-A3AB-261A1EF2D15F%7D&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- AAA said Friday the average U.S. retail price of regular unleaded gasoline rose 52% from a year ago to a record $2.815 a gallon. The automobile association said the average price of diesel fuel also rose to a record Friday at $2.771 a gallon. Thursday's average price for regular unleaded was $2.707, and the average price one month ago was $2.285.

[UpInArms]

35. US car culture is running on empty in storm's wake

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-09-02T122533Z_01_N02520617_RTRIDST_0_WEATHER-KATRINA-FUEL.XML

JACKSON, Miss., Sept 2 (Reuters) - The price of gasoline may be at a record high in the United States, but in Jackson, Mississippi, drivers are begging to pay it.

"Gotta have gas," said John Oliver, 27, after sitting for eight hours in his truck across the road from a service station that has no gasoline, anxious to pony up the $3.20-a-gallon asking price. "Can't work without it. Can't live without it."

Across hundreds of miles of the U.S. South crippled by the rampage of Hurricane Katrina, the American car culture is running on empty, hobbled by the worst fuel shortage in recent years.

Drivers are burning what little fuel they have looking for more. They circle gas stations for hours, or line the sides of the roads around them, hoping against hope that a tanker will show up and the pumps will gush again.

At gas stations across Jackson, yellow caution tape surrounds the pumps, and barrels or barricades block the entrances. "No gas here," read signs everywhere.

...more distressing info...

[UpInArms]

39. Germany's Schroeder: IEA aims to give US 2M bbls/day: AP

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38597.3804111343-841134106&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said Friday that the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy watchdog of industrialized nations, is aiming to release two million barrels of oil a day for 30 days from international strategic reserves to help ease a U.S. supply squeeze, the Associated Press reported from Berlin. Schroeder told a news conference that Germany would support the proposed release, which comes after a request from the U.S. following the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast.

[UpInArms]

54. Current Crude Prices: $67.76 bbl (down $1.71)

Will you see it at the pumps? I'd say the chances are slim to none.

10:06am 09/02/05 OCT CRUDE FALLS $1.71, OR 2.5%, TO $67.76/BRL IN EARLY TRADE

10:06am 09/02/05 OCT NATGAS DOWN 7.7C, OR 0.7%, AT $11.68/MLN BTUS

10:06am 09/02/05 OCT UNLEADED GAS FALLS 16.9C, OR 7%, TO $2.24/GAL

[ozymandius]

6. Consumer Spending Rises, Savings Rate Dips

WASHINGTON - Americans' savings rate fell to an all-time low in July while manufacturing showed signs of slowing in August, worrisome economic news amid uncertainty over how much of Hurricane Katrina will hit the economy.

A group of economic reports on Thursday showed the economy was buffeted by high oil prices even before Katrina shut down production along the Gulf of Mexico earlier this week and sent the price of gasoline and other products soaring.

The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose by 1 percent in July, matching a strong June gain, as Americans streamed into auto showrooms to take advantage of sales enticements.

However, incomes rose by just 0.3 percent, not enough to cover the increased spending. As a result, the savings rate fell into negative territory at minus 0.6 percent, the lowest level on record.

more

[whistle]

15. Consumer spending rising because the real inflation rate for

...basic necessities has been well over twice the official reported inflation rate and in the case of energy is well into the double digits per month! The economy is now on a crash trajectory that will make 1929 look like a financial correction.

[spotbird]

33. There is no inflation

things just cost more.

[UpInArms]

48. U.S. inflation pressures rose in Aug - report

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-02T133946Z_01_NAT001777_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-INFLATION-ECRI.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Higher interest rates and
input prices, an increase in loan activity and stronger job
growth all pushed U.S. inflation higher in August, a report
said on Friday.

However, the rising inflation pressure was partly offset by
supplier delivery times, the Economic Cycle Research Institute
said.

ECRI's Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to
anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to
121.1 in August from a upwardly revised 119.7 in July, the
research group said.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out
monthly fluctuations, climbed to 4.1 percent from an upwardly
revised 2.3 percent.

"The U.S. future inflation gauge is now at a five-year
high, suggesting that cyclical inflation pressures in the U.S.
are intensifying," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director
for the ECRI.

...short one-liner article...

[ozymandius]

8. Katrina: a shock too many for economy?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hurricane Katrina's second wave -- soaring gasoline and home-heating prices -- may be less deadly and destructive than the storm itself but poses much greater risks to the world's biggest economy.

U.S. economic health is so dependent on keeping its increasingly indebted households shopping that another drain on their already-stretched budgets could batter the economy.

American consumers, whose spending on goods, services and houses accounted for 76 percent of U.S. gross domestic product in the second quarter, have shrugged off many shocks over the past decade -- most notably the dot.com bubble burst of 2000 and the September 11, 2001 attacks.

-cut-

"This is a very delicate moment," said Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at New York University. "The economy is already very imbalanced. On top of that, we've had a massive oil shock and now we have a natural disaster that might be something of a tipping point."

more

[UpInArms]

47. Estimated Total Economic Cost of Katrina at $100 BILLION

9:35am 09/02/05 RMS SEES TOTAL ECONOMIC COST OF KATRINA AT $100 BILLION

9:37am 09/02/05 NEW ORLEANS FLOOD MAY COST MORE THAN $50B, RMS ESTIMATES

9:39am 09/02/05 NEW ORLEANS FLOOD IS MOST DAMAGING IN US HISTORY, RMS SAYS

(edited for line item addition)

[UpInArms]

50. BushCo's Failure to Repair and Upgrade Levees costs $100 BILLION

Katrina may cost $100B in total economic losses, RMS says

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38597.4086445602-841136154&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Risk Management Solutions, a leading catastrophe risk modeling firm, said on Friday that Hurricane Katrina and the flooding of New Orleans will probably cost more than $100 billion in total economic losses. At least half of those losses will be triggered by the failure of levees surrounding New Orleans, the firm said, adding that the subsequent flood is turning out to be the most damaging in U.S. history. At least 150,000 properties have been flooded, surpassing the previous U.S. record from flooding and levee failures on the Lower Mississippi river in 1927, which inundated 137,000 properties, RMS said.

[Tace]

12. New Orleans Rocked by Explosions as Chaos Spreads

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- New Orleans was rocked by explosions along the banks of the Mississippi, as chaos spread throughout the city, the Associated Press reported.

Looting and rapes were carried out by bands of armed, violent men and thousands of people went without food, water and medicine for a third day, prompting Mayor Ray Nagin to issue a ``desperate S.O.S.'' in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

``People are dying down here,'' Nagin told Cable News Network. ``People are desperate and they are trying to find food and water.''

Some 15,000-20,000 people were stranded without help, Nagin said. The city once housed 500,000. A massive explosion, which may have been a railroad car, occurred in the southwest of the city, CNN reported. The disaster, which may have killed thousands, may be the biggest since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake when as many as 6,000 died. It may cost $50 billion, Standard & Poor's said, the most expensive hurricane in U.S. history.

more

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=acmfzdSpNkbQ&refer=home#

[whistle]

17. This is as good as a presidential decree for shotting people....

...on sight:

Bush has urged a crackdown on lawlessness.

``There ought to be zero tolerance of people breaking the law during an emergency such as this,'' he said in an interview on ABC's ``Good Morning America.''

[54anickel]

30. Soon they will be labeled "insurgents". I tend to think the number

of "criminal types" are being exaggerated. Are there really as many rapes taking place as that line would leave one to believe?

They are lumping a huge group together. Sure, some are hard criminals, some are just desperate for the basics - food, water, shelter - some are getting caught up into the mob mentality. Think of a soccer game crowd gone bad. But no, they lump them all together and vilify the group in some sort of effort to justify leaving them to die.

New Orleans, wasn't that a left-over from the French? Let it join Atlantis. :puke: :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

20. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.27 Change -0.28 (-0.32%)

A Possible Early End to Rate Hikes Sends Dollar Tumbling

http://tinyurl.com/do2ns

The US dollar sold off strongly today as the market begins to consider the possibility that the Fed may not even raise rates to 4%. Greenspan spoke to the President in Washington about the potential economic impact of Hurricane Katrina. The Fed Chairman will have to walk a fine line between keeping growth steady while battling inflation pressure. Although Katrina would be a good reason to halt rate hikes, we suspect that Greenspan will stick to his view that the rise in energy prices is temporary and for the time being, go ahead with a quarter point rate hike later this month. The November decision on the other hand remains more uncertain. The outlook for the dollar at this point is not good. There are gas stations running out of gas down south while others have hiked prices to as high as $6 a gallon. As of 1pm EST, our FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index remained in net short territory for the EURUSD and net long territory for USDCHF – supporting the case for a further rally in the EURUSD (the SSI is a contrarian indicator). The data that was released this morning was very disappointing, with the ISM survey printing at 53.6 versus expectations of 57.0. Construction spending was flat compared to the market’s forecast for 0.5% growth. Personal spending and income data indicated that incomes continue to grow at a slower pace than spending. Although the market will be turning its attention to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report, we doubt that a good number could do much to help the dollar since the following month’s NFP report could be very bad. Jobless claims have not really flowed in yet from Katrina because most people are still focused on basic survival, but once everything clears up over the next few weeks and unemployment offices reopen, we expect jobless claims to explode as people rush to apply for benefits. Generally speaking, with hurricanes, we usually see a sharp drop off in payrolls the month of the hurricane with a strong recovery over the next few months. However the dollar's sell-off today has been particularly strong, so we would not be surprised to see a bit of consolidation, but unless the government finds a resolution to this oil shock, traders coming back from their summer or Labor Day holidays could send the dollar even lower.

...more...

Dollar Retreats As Lack Of Liquidity Remains

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3214&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls continued to punish the greenback bulls as the anti-dollar rally remained in full gear. As euro longs continue their assault with the pair above the psychologically important 1.2500 figure, which dollar longs gave up without a fight, their next move will most likely test the greenback defenses around the 1.2673, a 50.0 Fib of the 1.3477-1.1869 USD rally. However a failure by euro longs to sustain momentum will most likely see the pair tumble below the 1.2500 handle and test the single currency bids around the 1.2319, a level marked by the 20-day SMA. Indicators signal a runaway train with oscillators approaching overbought conditions, with positive MACD and momentum indicator adding support to euro longs.

<snipping charts>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen bulls remained on a war path as the pair sliced through the psychologically important 110.00 handle like a samurai sword through bamboo stick. As the pair continues to head lower, a break below the greenback defenses at 109.37, an August 26 daily spike low, will most likely open the gate to the next round of dollar defenses around the 108.17, marked by the June 21 daily low. Indicators are mixed with momentum indicator above the zero line with MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while both oscillators remain in a neutral territory, thus giving Japanese yen bulls enough room to maneuver.

...more...

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Take Center Stage

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3207&Itemid=39

US Nonfarm Payrolls (MoM) (AUG) (12:30 GMT, 8:30AM EDT)

Consensus: 190K
Previous: 207K

Outlook: Economists are expecting August's change in nonfarm payrolls to fall slightly to 190,000 from 207,000 in July. Manufacturing jobs are expected to remain unchanged compared to a 4,000 drop in July. The ISM employment component registered a small decrease. However, in the regional surveys, only the Chicago region saw a drop in the employment index while the New York and Philadelphia Feds reported gains. Unfortunately, the ISM nonmanufacturing survey results, which usually give more insight into the larger portion of the American labor force, for August won't be available until next week. However, from the data that we have, the numbers seem to be quite supportive of a drop, if not posing a small downside risk. Initial jobless claims have been rising recently from July's low levels. While the entire month of July saw claims coming in below the four-week moving average, August's figures were all above the average. With the negative data that we've been seeing from the US this week, a disappointment could cause pretty hefty losses for the dollar.

Previous: July's change in nonfarm payrolls came out higher than expected at 207,000 compared to the median estimate of 180,000. The numbers from the prior two months was also revised up by a total of 42,000. Going into the report, market expectations were definitely on the upside as the previous few weeks brought very encouraging jobless claims data. Both of the ISM reports also had fairly positive employment component index numbers. While manufacturing shed 4,000 jobs, retailers took on 49,800 new employees making it the biggest monthly gain since 1999. The increase in payrolls left the unemployment rate at its four-year low of 5.0%. The earnings growth shown in this news release was also encouraging with a 6 cents, or 0.4%, gain in hourly earnings, which was the largest rise in a year. This is the sort of job growth that other indicators have been pointing to for months now and it should bode well for consumer confidence and spending going forward.

...more at link...

(edited for html and broken link)

[UpInArms]

32. Dollar improves in delayed reaction to jobs data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B479C99D5-5F74-4BE9-B18A-137E912190B7%7D&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- A below-consensus payrolls headline briefly pushed a weak dollar lower, but the greenback had since scratched back as the report's details proved more positive. U.S. job growth rose at steady clip in August, pushing the unemployment rate to a four-year low of 4.9%, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 169,000 in August, below the 197,000 expected by economists. However, upward revisions totaling 44,000 in prior months put total employment slightly higher than expected. The euro was at $1.2528 in recent trading compared to $1.2562 just after the report. It's up 0.3% on the day against the dollar reaching late-May highs earlier Friday. The dollar stood unchanged on the day against the yen, last at 109.93 yen vs. 109.67 just after the report.

(It looks like there's a bit of intervention going on :eyes: )

[UpInArms]

45. Dollar gets some relief from jobs data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFAF2AC1B%2D333A%2D4F82%2DABBF%2D03A122E4CD66%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - A battered dollar on Friday got a small break from a mostly solid U.S. jobs report for August.

Pressured by economic fallout from Hurricane Katrina, the dollar languished in European trade, falling to its lowest since May 25 against the euro and May 18 against the pound.

Since the storm ravaged the U.S. Gulf Coast this week, developments including ever-higher oil and gasoline prices prompted analysts to revise projections for higher U.S. interest rates in coming months.

"Nonfarm payrolls painted a mixed picture today," said Boris Schlossberg, currency analyst with Forex Capital Markets.

That picture proved enough to persuade currency traders to pocket some of the gains made in their euro and pound trades against the dollar this week.

<snip>

"The market's up-until-now sanguine attitude to the Hurricane Katrina disaster appeared to evaporate" Thursday, Deutsche Bank said in a client note. "Some of the initial assumptions, especially those concerning the speed at which U.S. refineries would be back on stream, proved to be completely wrong."

An emergency meeting President Bush called with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Thursday fueled market speculation that the U.S. central bank could halt its rate-rise campaign much sooner than expected.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. Gold futures head for three-session win ($447.40 oz)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38597.411881169-841136350&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Gold futures headed higher Friday morning, on the heels of a two-session winning streak that's lifted prices by $11 an ounce. December gold is up 90 cents at $447.40 an ounce in New YOrk. Overall, "speculation the Fed may curb its interest rate increases to help combat the oil cost of oil and the devastation left by Hurricane Katrina have put the dollar under continued pressure," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London. Shares of metals companies traded modestly lower, with the CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) down 0.2%.

[UpInArms]

21. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Sep 2	8:30 AM	Average Workweek	Aug	-	33.7	33.7	33.7	-	
Sep 2	8:30 AM	Hourly Earnings		Aug	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	-	
Sep 2	8:30 AM	Nonfarm Payrolls	Aug	-	215K	190K	207K	-	
Sep 2	8:30 AM	Unemployment Rate	Aug	-	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	-

[UpInArms]

25. TROUBLE: U.S. Aug. payrolls rise 169,000; jobless rate falls to 4.9%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={32611F04-B2BA-4380-8B20-87D5EF4E7AD9}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. job growth rose at steady clip in August, pushing the unemployment rate to a four-year low of 4.9%, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 169,000 in August, below the 197,000 expected by economists. However, upward revisions totaling 44,000 in prior months put total employment slightly higher than expected. Average hourly earnings increased by 2 cents, or 0.1%, to $16.16 an hour. The average workweek was flat at 33.7 hours, while total hours worked in the economy increased by 0.1%.

[UpInArms]

28. more info: U.S. August payrolls grew 169,000 pre-Katrina

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-02T123000Z_01_N01479273_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JOBS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - U.S. employers added 169,000 workers to their payrolls last month and the jobless rate fell unexpectedly to 4.9 percent, its lowest level since August 2001, a reminder of the economy's vigor before Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast.

While August's job-creation tally fell slightly short of the 190,000 gain expected by Wall Street, the Labor Department said on Friday job growth in June and July was stronger than previously thought, bumping up the tally for those two months by a combined 44,000.

Job gains in August were broad-based, although factory employment slipped by 14,000 - the third consecutive monthly decline. Over the past year, the manufacturing sector has shed 110,000 workers.

The department said Hurricane Katrina did not impact the August job tally, since it crossed Florida and hit the Gulf Coast after the government had surveyed employers.

...more...

[Roland99]

52. "economy's vigor"? WTF? And we all know that unemployment rate is a joke.

That doesn't measure employment properly. The Labor Participation Rate is more accurate.

[UpInArms]

53. now they are saying the Katrina will "create jobs"

but neglect to mention all the jobs that it cost due to the destruction of the companies that were at the forefront of the storm.

I just despise these people (have I said that lately?)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-02T135933Z_01_NAT001778_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-LAYOFFS-CHALLENGER-URGENT.XML

US lay-offs plans fell sharply in August--Challenger

NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - U.S. employers reduced their plans for further job cuts by a third in August, bringing lay-off announcements to the lowest level since April, a report said on Friday.

Employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. also said that while Hurricane Katrina would cause some short-term unemployment, reconstruction in the affected areas would more than make up the difference.

Employers announced 70,571 job cuts last month, down from 102,971 in July. Companies said they planned to hire 27,581 new workers, up slightly from July's 27,180.

"If anything good can be said about Hurricane Katrina, which devastated parts of the South, it is that the rebuilding effort will create thousands of jobs," said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

<snip>

Rising energy costs were taking a toll on the labor market. Challenger said several firms reported job cuts because of higher fuel and materials costs.

...more...

These people definitely have their heads up their arses. :grr:

[Roland99]

59. Unbelievable. The new jobs will be cleanup/construction

And we know who gets those jobs.

In the meantime, banks, furniture stores, ISPs, investment companies, roofers, painters, car dealerships/repair shops, tourism, etc. is GONE in New Orleans, Biloxi, Gulfport, Slidell, etc.

[UpInArms]

61. several million people affected and they don't see the obvious

:argh:

[Roland99]

64. I took two econ courses in college and *I* can see it!!

[UpInArms]

70. Katrina's clouds seen lingering over struck states

(maybe someone is catching on)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-02T154455Z_01_N01462599_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-STATES-KATRINA.XML

MIAMI, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Hurricane Katrina's shadow may hang for years over the economies of Louisiana and Mississippi, with worries intensifying the states may not see the fast jobs and business bouncebacks common after U.S. natural disasters.

Louisiana and Mississippi have slowly growing populations with relatively low levels of income and education. Both poor states on the Gulf of Mexico are reliant on energy, leisure, ports, agriculture and manufacturing for jobs and tax revenues.

Together with Alabama, the third Gulf state struck by Katrina's fierce winds, rain and flooding on Monday, the states account for only 3.1 percent of U.S. output while holding out-sized importance in the domestic energy and transport sectors.

Federal disaster declarations covered flooded New Orleans and a total of 90,000 square miles (234,000 square kilometers) along the U.S. Gulf Coast, an area roughly the size of Britain. As many as 400,000 people had been forced from their homes.

<snip>

"It will take longer for Louisiana and Mississippi to recover from the storm than Florida last year," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Corp. "Resource- and agriculture-reliant areas just don't do as well."

<snip>

But Florida, with a steadily-growing population, one of the lowest jobless rates in the country and robust leisure and housing sectors, reported only short-lived losses of business, wages and taxes before entering a rebuilding boom that is still underway.

...more...

And, who's brother is the governor of FL? Oh, that's right - weren't they photographed moments after the hurricane in FL handing out water?????

:argh:

[UpInArms]

78. and another one sees a bit of light under the blackout shades

Katrina seen hitting US jobless claims in wks ahead

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-09-02T184242Z_01_N02536932_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-KATRINA-JOBLESS.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - If history is any guide, U.S. jobless claims are likely to be very volatile in the next few weeks as Hurricane Katrina's effects work their way through the system, economists said.

Historically, the Labor Department's tally of applications for unemployment insurance tends to whipsaw for weeks after a hurricane hits as people are forced out of their jobs.

Hurricane Katrina's devastating passage through the U.S. Gulf Coast states will ultimately swell the unemployment lines, but claims may fall at first since many workers will be unable to file until stability returns to the affected region.

A major storm ushers in a rise in two types of applicants: those who were going to file anyway but could not, and those whose jobs fell prey to the disaster, said Anthony Chan, senior economist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

"At the peak of the calamity, people are not that focused on filing claims, they are more focused on trying to protect their lives and protect their property," he said.

"You tend to see a drop off in claims in the impact area the week of the calamity and sometimes that extends depending how long the clean up efforts takes, then you get a fairly sizable pickup," Chan said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. U.S. August job growth solid, but pre-Katrina

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-09-02T130715Z_01_N02526545_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-WRAPUP-1.XML

excerpt:

Hurricane Katrina did not impact the August job count, since it crossed Florida and slammed into the Gulf Coast after the government had surveyed employers. But economist expect it to hurt payroll employment this month.

Overall, however, analysts believe the storm, which killed an untold number of people and left thousands more homeless, will prove only a temporary set-back to the $12 trillion U.S. economy.

The decline in the unemployment rate came as a separate survey of households also found job creation robust. Analysts had expected the jobless rate to hold steady at 5.0 percent.

Last month's 4.9 percent reading was the lowest since before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and offered a reminder that labor-market conditions had been improving before Katrina struck. The unemployment rate has fallen one-half percentage point since February.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Reports tumbling in:

8:30am 09/02/05 U.S. AUG. SERVICES JOBS INCREASE 156,000

8:30am 09/02/05 U.S. AUG. FACTORY JOBS FALL 14,000

8:30am 09/02/05 U.S. JUNE, JULY PARYOLLS REVISED UP BY 44,000

8:30am 09/02/05 U.S. HOURLY EARNINGS UP 2.7% IN PAST YEAR

8:30am 09/02/05 U.S. AUG. LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE RISES TO 66.2%

8:30am 09/02/05 U.S. AUG. AVERAGE WORKWEEK STEADY AT 33.7 HOURS

8:30am 09/02/05 U.S. AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 0.1%

8:30am 09/02/05 U.S. AUG. JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 4.9%, LOWEST SINCE AUG. 2001

8:30am 09/02/05 U.S. AUG. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 169,000 VS.197,000 EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

22. Katrina: `Worst possible event at worst possible moment'

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B086CAA29%2D5487%2D4ABD%2DB30E%2DCDB14F4D4447%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Energy futures edged lower in early Friday trade, with gasoline falling for the first time in five sessions, as traders locked in some of the week's sharp gains before the holiday weekend.

Contributing to gasoline's decline were reports that the International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog of industrialized nations, is prepared to send emergency stockpiles of European gasoline to ease the U.S. supply squeeze.

Unleaded-gasoline futures weakened 6.7 cents, or 2.8%, to $2.3425 a gallon, with light crude off 31 cents at $69.16 a barrel in electronic trading.

At the retail level, AAA said Friday the average U.S. retail price of regular unleaded gasoline stands at a record $2.815 a gallon, up from $2.707 Thursday and up 52% from the same time a year ago. The automobile association said the average price of diesel fuel also stands at a record, $2.771 a gallon. See the data.

<snip>

"The simplest assessment of the aftermath of Katrina is that the worst possible event has occurred at the worst possible moment," said Michael Fitzpatrick, analyst at Fimat USA.

"As crude oil and distillate inventories continued to climb heading into the slack demand period, the one element that still labored under terrific stress was the refining infrastructure -- and that has borne the full brunt of the storm," he said in a note to clients Thursday.

<snip>

"Refineries were operating at just over 97% of capacity last week before Katrina made landfall, and utilization rates like that will most likely not be seen for sometime," Denton Cinquegrana, analyst at OPIS, said in a recent report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. (Hedge Fund) Activists changing shareholder dynamics

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-09-01T204415Z_01_ROB151345_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-COLUMN-MERGERTALK-DC.XML

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - The market's shareholder base has shifted in recent years, and as companies cater to the growing list of activist investors who own their stocks, their executives and individual shareholders are bumping up against new challenges.

Hedge funds and other vocal -- and often short-term -- shareholders now control many large corporate stakes once held by passive, less-sophisticated institutions and investors.

In an effort to match their strategies to their new mix of stakeholders, corporate leaders are working to execute plans over shorter periods of time, sometimes spending hours each day pitching plans to powerful buy-siders.

"Managing investors can be so time-consuming that for certain companies, it can be a distraction from running the business," said Bruce Goldfarb, senior managing director of Georgeson Shareholder Communications, which advises companies on shareholder issues.

As executives spend less time talking to sell-side research analysts, the intelligence gap is widening between small-time investors who use that research and hedge funds, which have seemingly unlimited capital and unfettered access to management.

<snip>

Hedge funds, on the other hand, are flush with over $1 trillion in capital -- more than five times the amount they had a decade ago, according to Hedge Fund Research. They hardly blink an eye at investing millions of dollars and hundreds of hours to build volumes of company research.

<snip>

Activist investors, for instance, often lobby in favor of share buybacks that add a degree of risk because they increase corporate debt levels.

...more...

[amandabeech]

56. Imagine if all that money had been paid out to rank-and-file employees

in the form of wages and benefits. Or if some of that money had been paid in taxes to federal, state or local governments. Think what schools, transit or FEMA could do with that money. We'd have a much better country and world.

[UpInArms]

58. imagine what our country would look like without USSC intervention

on December 12, 2000.

Environmentally protected
Taxbase secured
no 9/11 (Gore Commission)
Infrastructure maintained and repaired
National Debt reduction
Alternative Fuels in place

:cry:

[amandabeech]

65. True indeed.

n/t

[UpInArms]

24. Katrina's econ impact prompts derivative sell-off

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-02T113644Z_01_L02593766_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-DERIVATIVES-KATRINA.XML

LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Credit derivatives fell on Friday as concern over the impact of Hurricane Katrina on U.S. exporters boosted risk aversion among European investors.

New Orleans' port, among the biggest in the United States, was still shut, alongside oil refineries, four days after the devastating winds struck the region. That raised concerns about the lasting impact on the U.S. economy, prompting some investors to dump risky credit derivatives.

Ten-year mezzanine tranches on collateralised debt obligations have widened around 50 basis points in the past two days to 434 basis points, bankers in London said, while five-year tranches widened 13 basis point to 90 basis points.

Collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) are portfolios of credit default swaps that can be divided into tranches containing different levels of exposure to default risk, depending on the position within the structure.

The riskiest equity tranche usually gives investors exposure to the first 3 percent of defaults within the portfolio, while the mezzanine tranche covers 3 percent to 6 percent.

<snip>

"Mezzanine tranches have widened because Katrina is causing more worry about systemic risk," said Merhernosh Engineer, an analyst at BNP Paribas. "Louisiana is a big port and we could see supply chain problems."

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. US rate futures down on profit-taking after payrolls

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-02T124304Z_01_CHB000083_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FEDFUNDS-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, Sept 2 (Reuters) - U.S. interest rate futures
turned lower on Friday shortly after the government reported
weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs growth in August but made upward
revisions to previous months.

The Labor Department reported monthly jobs growth at
169,000, below the median Wall Street forecast of 190,000. July
and June payrolls were revised higher by a total of 44,000
jobs.

The mixed results triggered profit-taking in rate futures,
which have had a huge rally this week.

Futures now suggest a 66 percent chance the Fed will
raise rates at its September meeting, similar to late Thursday
but far below recent levels.

...short blurb...

[UpInArms]

37. Treasurys lower as U.S. jobs report deemed solid

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38597.3700962731-841133337&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Benchmark Treasury notes turned lower after the release of a well-rounded U.S. jobs report that, for now, cooled talk for a sooner-than-expected end to Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. U.S. job growth rose at steady clip in August, pushing the unemployment rate to a four-year low of 4.9%. Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 169,000 in August, below the 197,000 expected by economists. However, upward revisions totaling 44,000 in prior months put total employment slightly higher than expected. The 10-year note was down 3/32 at 101 21/32, yielding ($TNX) 4.04% vs. 4.03% Thursday. The 2-year declined to trade unchanged at 100 16/32, yielding 3.73%.

[UpInArms]

41. PIEHOLE (Too Little Too Late) OPENS AND SPEWS CRAP

9:11am 09/02/05 BUSH: LONG TERM PLANNING TO HELP DISPLACED VICTIMS BEGINS

9:09am 09/02/05 BUSH: MILITARY POLICE TO BE DEPLOYED IN HURRICANE AREAS

9:09am 09/02/05 BUSH: RESULTS OF HURRICANE EVACUATION "NOT ACCEPTABLE"

9:08am 09/02/05 PRESIDENT BUSH: FOOD, WATER HEADING TO LA. CONVENTION CENTER

9:07am 09/02/05 PRESIDEN BUSH: AID "SURGING" TOWARD HURRICANE VICTIMS

[RawMaterials]

42. Fears of Economic Slowdown Grow

# Experts say further fuel price hikes could ignite inflation. Greenspan, under pressure to delay raising interest rates, meets with Bush.

WASHINGTON — Concerns grew Thursday that Hurricane Katrina could have wide-reaching effects on the nation's economy, causing record gasoline prices to surge even higher, key agricultural crops to rot in Midwestern fields and warehouses, and some of the nation's troubled airlines to collapse.

As estimates of the economic damage mounted, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan came under increasing pressure to scrap or delay further Fed interest rate increases. In a hastily arranged White House meeting, President Bush summoned the Fed chief to discuss what could be done to lessen the hurricane's economic toll.

Details of the meeting were not disclosed, but many experts predicted that Greenspan would work to avoid a possible economic slowdown.

Experts warned that gasoline prices — driven higher because of storm-related damage to the Gulf Coast's energy infrastructure — were the greatest concern and might be approaching levels that would soon ripple through the economy.

If that happens, prices of basic items could soar, pushing up inflation. The Gulf Coast accounts for about 20% of the nation's oil and natural gas supplies.

snip...


Some economists said Katrina's toll could be more far-reaching than the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, for example, because of its potential effects on trade and key sectors of the U.S. economy.

The U.S. is the world's biggest agricultural exporter. Most crop exports float down the Mississippi River on barges and then are transferred to ships at one of the Gulf Coast ports.

Massive damage to the region's ports would idle the barges that transport oil, sugar and grain along the Mississippi River.

That would mean that farmers in the South and Midwest who depend on the waterway to ship their goods to foreign markets would lose a cheap shipping route. On Thursday, many fully loaded barges drifted with nowhere to go.


snip..

Analysts said again Thursday that it could be weeks before energy industry executives assessed the condition of their facilities. But these analysts warned that if the damage was substantial, it could have significant and long-lasting repercussions.

The biggest danger is that Katrina has seriously damaged Gulf Coast refineries, which account for 10% of U.S. refining capacity. Without these refineries, the oil being drawn from government stockpiles can't be turned into usable products for the areas they serve.

"Particularly the East Coast could soon be teetering on the edge of shortage," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.


http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ2sep02,1,19501.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true


:hi: Its been awhile but I will try to help keep this thread on track today.

[RawMaterials]

43. Conservation? It's Such a 70's Idea

WHERE are the plans for energy conservation? They are needed now.

The markets think that the United States will not have enough refined petroleum products to meet demand for at least a few months. The response of the government has been to relax environmental rules, which will allow more production, and to release crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which will do nothing to deal with inadequate refining capacity.

Left to its own devices, of course, the market will allocate scarce resources. If there is a shortage of gasoline or home heating oil, prices will rise until demand falls off. Refiners will do very well financially, and gas station operators may find that their margins are also great, albeit with the added irritation of angry customers yelling about profiteering.

But the nature of energy demand is that it is slow to react to price changes. In the short term, a person cannot stop driving to work. Longer term, that person can get a car with better fuel efficiency or move closer to the job - both happened after past oil spikes. But to the extent this is a short-term problem, it needs short-term solutions.

snip...

In the near term, the hurricane and its aftermath may seem to spur economic growth, as some sectors are stimulated by all the spending to first salvage New Orleans and then rebuild it and the equipment that has been damaged or destroyed. The way the statisticians measure gross domestic product, there is no subtraction for destruction, but there is addition for replacement of what was destroyed.

Some will prosper. Shares in Halliburton, the oil services company, sold for $8.60 in early 2002, when the oil economy was depressed. Yesterday, they hit $63.44, setting a record for the first time since 1997.

THERE was no mention of conservation when President Bush spoke Wednesday. By yesterday, he was talking of the need to conserve, but only in a general manner.

Perhaps the politicians are paralyzed by memories of the way Jimmy Carter was mocked for wearing a sweater as he urged us to adjust our thermostats during another energy crisis. The 55 miles per hour speed limit somehow seems to be a violation of the fundamental rights of American drivers. Sacrifice speed to help avert soaring prices? Surely you must be kidding.

snip..

But the most immediate impact is on energy prices. A major question is whether they will rise enough to choke off demand for other things, and thus damage those parts of the economy not benefiting from the reconstruction spending.

The prudent course now would be for a national effort to reduce demand. Urge drivers to slow down and tell the police to enforce speed limits. A campaign to raise home thermostats now, and lower them this winter, might reduce demand enough to limit the price increases that the market will have to bear.

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&hs=bn&lr=&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US+%3Cimg+src%3D&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=Conservation%3F+It%27s+Such+a+70%27s+Idea&btnG=Search+News

[ozymandius]

44. LaLa Land open for bidness.

9:30
Dow 10,464.09 +4.46 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,151.02 +3.12 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,222.78 +1.19 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 40.47 +0.28 (+0.70%)
NYSE Volume 7,210,000
Nasdaq Volume 28,719,000

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5.

9:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Futures trading picks up a bit in the wake of the August employment report and is currently signalling a modestly higher start for the cash market... The jobs report was solid on all counts, particularly hourly earnings, which were up just 0.1% after a surprising 0.4% increase in July... The most recent reading suggests that wage pressures remain in check...

[UpInArms]

46. 3 minutes later - Happy Happy Joy Joy!

Dow 10,482.72 +23.09 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,152.20 +4.30 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,224.45 +2.86 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.049 +0.30 (+0.75%)

NYSE Volume 31,528,000
Nasdaq Volume 43,979,000

[UpInArms]

55. 10:11 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,479.38 +19.75 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,149.66 +1.76 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,223.16 +1.57 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.043 +0.24 (+0.60%)

NYSE Volume 282,667,000
Nasdaq Volume 223,379,000

10:00AM: Market has a mixed disposition at the moment that, arguably, is reflective of the non-commital status that is likely to affect the indices all day as participants take off to enjoy the holiday weekend... The results of the employment made life easier in terms of planning to leave the office early as it didn't contain any striking surprises that would generate increased trading volatility... To that end, the Treasury market, which closes early today at 13:00 ET, is fairly flat at the moment...

As far as stocks go, the pullback in energy futures is lending a measure of support: crude -$1.42 at $68.05; gasoline is unchanged at $2.409/gal, and natural gas is down $0.07 to $11.74 per mln BTUs...NYSE Adv/Dec 1206/1302, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1067/1196

9:45AM: The market opened on the upside as futures trading had suggested. A reassuring employment report, with traders looking carefully at non-farm payrolls (169K) and at hourly earnings, which rose 0.1%, has helped trigger a slightly bullish bias. The payroll read, while lower than the expected 190K, still reflects trend growth when the upward revision for July is taken into account, and the hourly earnings result assuages inflationary concerns to some degree...

Separately, there has been a reversal of fortune for the energy sector (-1.16%) in the early-going as a drop in energy futures and profit taking efforts have weighed on the stocks in that hot area...

edited to highlight the stupidity and narcissism of the cheerleaders :argh:

[UpInArms]

62. 10:31 numbers (surprising volatility may disrupt trader's long weekend)

Dow 10,453.42 -6.21 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,145.18 -2.72 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,219.42 -2.17 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.036 +0.17 (+0.42%)

NYSE Volume 391,501,000
Nasdaq Volume 301,000,000

[UpInArms]

60. Should our country need corporate assets in this national emergency

and sieze them for the good of the people?

To me, these corporations that have directly profited by the presence of New Orleans should voluntarily do the right thing. If they won't, our government has the authority to sieze their assets - I believe that they should.

Carnival Cruise mulls US request for Katrina help

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-02T141637Z_01_N02537162_RTRIDST_0_WEATHER-KATRINA-CARNIVAL.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it was weighing a federal government request to use some of its 21 ships to help victims of Hurricane Katrina.

Public relations coordinator Irene Lui could not comment on whether the company had been asked to turn them into floating hotels off the U.S. Gulf Coast or sail into New Orleans.

One of the worst problems New Orleans faces is evacuating thousands of stranded and desperate people under chaotic and dangerous conditions.

<snip>

One of its ships, which will return to its base in Mobile, Alabama, tomorrow, can hold as many as 1,452 people, Lui said.

Other bigger ships can hold as many as 3,000 people.

The cruise line also has two ships that normally dock in New Orleans

...more...

[54anickel]

84. MULLS?!?!?! Just take the damned things! I'm with you on that UIA.

[UpInArms]

63. Bayou Duped Hedge-Fund Investors Since 1998, Prosecutors Allege

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ageaj2UjuI2s&refer=news_index

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Samuel Israel III started Bayou Management LLC in January 1997, telling investors his hedge funds would outperform market indexes by adapting the rapid-fire techniques of day traders.

By the next year, Bayou was cheating clients by inflating investment returns and assets in phony financial statements, a scam it kept afloat until last month, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York alleged in a civil complaint filed yesterday.

U.S. Attorney David Kelley is seeking to freeze whatever money was left at Stamford, Connecticut-based Bayou so it can be returned to investors. That includes $100 million seized in May by Arizona officials investigating suspicious bank transfers -- funds that Israel later claimed belonged to Bayou.

Kelley's complaint alleges that Bayou's financial statements and other documents from 1998 through 2005 ``overstated gains, understated losses and reported gains where there were losses.'' The company also created a sham accounting firm, Richmond-Fairfield Associates, to certify false financial statements, prosecutors alleged.

``The effect of these false statements was to induce investors to invest in excess of $300 million,'' the complaint said. Criminal charges weren't filed.

...more...

I wonder how many more hedge fund scammers there are out there - especially in light of the fact that Meanspin thinks that these vehicles for scamming should be unregulated.

[UpInArms]

66. Railroads in Limbo After Hurricane Katrina

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/02/AR2005090200512.html

MINNEAPOLIS -- The grain elevators that take in corn, soybeans and wheat from Midwest farmers and the railroads that move it are waiting to see what impact Hurricane Katrina will have on them.

More than half of U.S. grain exports go through New Orleans, and it remained unknown Thursday when the crippled port and its shipping terminals might reopen.

That means railroads and elevators don't know whether grain that would normally go down the Mississippi River by barge will need to go elsewhere by rail or truck. Nor do they know how well the rail networks and other seaports would be able to cope with the added load.

<snip>

The Elbow Lake Coop Grain Elevator in west-central Minnesota ships most of its corn and soybeans to the West Coast and most of its wheat by rail to the East. But manager Allen Mashek is still concerned about the ripple effects of the closure of New Orleans and resulting higher transportation costs and downward pressure on prices.

"Overall this affects everybody," Mashek said. "It doesn't matter if it's the port down there or wherever. It just puts more pressure on ports that are already at capacity."

...more...

[54anickel]

85. Someone give them a clue - maybe they ought to be looking at

what their alternatives are instead of standing around with their heads up their asses. Obviously, an alternate route will cost more money - they won't consider it until market prices go up enough to cover the cost. How can this idiot say he's concerned about a downward pressure on price with a straight face.

[UpInArms]

68. 11:13 EST numbers and (maddening) blather

Dow 10,464.02 +4.39 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,144.34 -3.56 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,220.48 -1.11 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.022 +0.03 (+0.07%)

NYSE Volume 580,651,000
Nasdaq Volume 439,934,000

10:55AM: Each of the indices waver around the unchanged line, with Boeing (BA 64.10 -1.89) and ExxonMobil's (XOM 60.83 -0.85) performances pulling down the Dow. Late last night, Boeing's largest labor union voted by an 86% margin to strike - a move that will shut down the company's jetliner production for the first time in 10 years. ExxonMobil has ended its streak as the average's leader, trending negative as oil prices continue to slip (now at $67.98/bbl) and as pipelines and ports Katrina closed begin to reopen. In addition, reports on Bloomberg.com that the International Energy Agency is considering releasing emergency supplies to the U.S. has taken a toll on the energy sector (-1.3%) today...

10:25AM: The market remains mixed, with the Dow holding steady but the S&P and Nasdaq hovering around the flat line. The retail group (+0.33%) has staged a comeback today after some uninspiring same store sale results for August left the segment as one of yesterday's worst performers...

It's the grocers spearheading the advance (food retailers have surged 7.24%), with Albertson's (ABS 24.85 +4.12) soaring nearly 20% after announcing that it is exploring strategic alternatives, which include a possible sale of the company. As a result, competitors Safeway (SWY 24.80 +1.10) and Kroger (KR 20.17 +0.36) have caught a bid... Target (TGT 53.35 +0.57) also contributes to retail's rise, up 1.1% after Business Week's favorable mention of the stock...NYSE Adv/Dec 1450/1282, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1044/1415

These sorry SOBs were actually rejoicing that crude prices were soaring???? :wtf:

Profiteers of this nature deserve a special place by the fires. :grr:

[UpInArms]

69. S&P says may cut Albertsons' debt rating to junk

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-02T153957Z_01_WNA7451_RTRIDST_0_RETAIL-ALBERTSONS-S-P-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Standard and Poor's said on Friday it may cut its ratings on Albertsons Inc. (ABS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to junk after the No. 2 U.S. grocer said it will consider putting itself up for sale.

The Idaho-based company said it is exploring alternatives that will increase shareholder value. Although the ultimate outcome of this process is uncertain, the alternatives could potentially weaken bondholder protection, S&P said.

S&P ranks the debt of Albertsons "BBB minus," its lowest investment grade rating. The possible downgrade also relates to the debt of American stores Co., a subsidiary of Albertsons.

...short blurb...

Well, now. That should increase shareholder value :crazy:

[ozymandius]

71. It's true: the markets never see calamity coming. (numbers and blather)

12:34
Dow 10,471.09 +11.46 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,146.40 -1.50 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,220.74 -0.85 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 40.28 +0.09 (+0.22%)
NYSE Volume 853,042,000
Nasdaq Volume 629,366,000

12:00PM: Stocks began the day modestly higher, as a reassuring August employment report triggered a sense of early optimism, but modest consolidation has recently inched the indices below the flat line midday... It's important to note, though, that the trading session is a light one, with participants getting an early start on the Labor Day weekend; the downturn thus lacks any real sense of conviction...

With regard to the employment data, even though non-farm payrolls checked in at lower than the expected 169K (consensus 190K), the data still reflect solid trend growth when the upward revision for July (to 242K from 207K) is taken into account while the hourly earnings data (+0.1% versus the +0.2% consensus and a surprise +0.4% prior read) help alleviate wage-pressure concerns to some degree...

Meanwhile, stock prices across the energy complex remain somewhat of an overhanging element on the session, since the Energy sector has provided by far the largest contribution (+42% EPS growth in Q2) to the S&P 500's overall growth rate. Crude's downtick, down $1.17/bbl to $68.35, has been catalyzed by dual reports that the International Energy Agency is considering releasing emergency supplies to the U.S and that Katrina-closed pipelines and ports are beginning to reopen. In addition, gasoline has slipped to $2.23/gal alongside natural gas' slide to $11.73 per mln BTUs. To that end, energy stocks (-1.3%) have reversed course today, giving up its week-long leadership position and falling into last place today as consolidation in oil prices have prompted investors to lock in some of the sector's 7.5% weekly gain...

[UpInArms]

73. 1:50 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,487.42 +27.79 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,146.66 -1.24 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,221.87 +0.28 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.029 +0.10 (+0.25%)

NYSE Volume 1,071,597,000
Nasdaq Volume 764,450,000

1:35PM: Range-bound trading persists in stocks as investors digest energy-related news... Energy Secretary Sam Bodman recently announced a unanimous and historic decision by the IEA to release 60 mln barrels of both crude oil, which will be available over the next month at a rate of two mln barrels a day... This reflects the agency's initial reaction to the Katrina-induced energy shortage, and the situation will be reassessed on Nov. 15...

At the same time, Bodman stated that the U.S. will release 30 mln barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, for which a bidding process will begin next Tuesday... Following the announcements, the market has remained within its tight afternoon trading range while the energy sector (-1.6%), in contrast, has spiked lower as oil prices ($66.90/bbl -$2.57) have unofficially closed at their worst levels of the session...XOI -1.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1508/1576, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1223/1655

1:00PM: Bluechips are outperforming smaller issues today... The Dow has regained positive footing, while virtually every other index currently trades in the red... Merck (MRK 28.80 +0.39) is pacing the way higher and supporting healthcare's (+0.10%) modest gain... Within the sector, some patches of relative strength can be found in the managed healthcare (+0.77%), healthcare facilities (+0.54%), and pharmaceuticals (+0.42) groups, which have offset weakness in healthcare equipment (-0.57) - the sector's worst-faring group...

Separately, the 10-year note is down one tick and yielding 4.038% as it heads into its early close... NYSE Adv/Dec 1440/1627, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1210/1674

[ozymandius]

72. 1:49 numbers and blather

Dow 10,485.90 +26.27 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,146.60 -1.30 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,221.79 +0.20 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 40.29 +0.10 (+0.25%)
NYSE Volume 1,066,592,000
Nasdaq Volume 761,253,000

1:35PM: Range-bound trading persists in stocks as investors digest energy-related news... Energy Secretary Sam Bodman recently announced a unanimous and historic decision by the IEA to release 60 mln barrels of both crude oil, which will be available over the next month at a rate of two mln barrels a day... This reflects the agency's initial reaction to the Katrina-induced energy shortage, and the situation will be reassessed on Nov. 15...

At the same time, Bodman stated that the U.S. will release 30 mln barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, for which a bidding process will begin next Tuesday... Following the announcements, the market has remained within its tight afternoon trading range while the energy sector (-1.6%), in contrast, has spiked lower as oil prices ($66.90/bbl -$2.57) have unofficially closed at their worst levels of the session...XOI -1.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1508/1576, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1223/1655

[UpInArms]

74. did that tarnished brass slug

call to us at the same time again?

:hi:

[ozymandius]

75. I see your brass slug.

But I was reaching for the wooden nickel next to it. Dang my hide if this market just doesn't get it!

[UpInArms]

77. value of the dollar definitely resembles brass slugs and wooden nickels

Last trade 86.26 Change -0.26 (-0.30%)

Settle 86.30 Settle Time 13:35

Open 86.66 Previous Close 86.55

High 86.72 Low 86.02

Last tick: 2005-09-02 14:29:12 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[ozymandius]

76. hemming and hawing

2:48
Dow 10,471.33 +11.70 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,145.35 -2.55 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,220.35 -1.24 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 40.29 +0.10 (+0.25%)
NYSE Volume 1,240,809,000
Nasdaq Volume 880,789,000

2:30PM: Modest gains in the Dow's financial components have also helped the average maintain its footing even though the Financial sector as a whole has been relatively flat today, currently up just 0.33%... Banks like Citigroup (C 44.10 0.39) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM 34.27 +0.21) have been outperformers while American International Group (AIG 59.59 +0.24) and American Express (AXP 55.53 +0.23) have also lent some support...

[UpInArms]

79. SnowJob to spew at 5:30 EST

RPT-Treasury's Snow to discuss Katrina economic impact

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-02T182018Z_01_WAT003772_RTRIDST_0_WEATHER-KATRINA-TREASURY-URGENT-REPEAT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow will return to Washington on Friday and will hold a news conference at 5:30 p.m. EDT to discuss Hurricane Katrina's effect on the U.S. economy, a department spokesman said.

Snow cut short a vacation in Britain to work on the recovery efforts following the devastating storm which has ravaged the Mississippi Gulf Coast and flooded New Orleans.

At the news conference, Snow also will discuss the Treasury Department's efforts to provide relief to victims, said spokesman Taylor Griffin.

Earlier on Friday, the Treasury announced steps to make additional diesel fuel available to alleviate shortages caused by the storm by allowing on-road use of dyed diesel fuel until September 15. Dyed diesel is not ordinarily subject to federal excise taxes because it is intended for off-road use and is dyed a different color to distinguish it from normal diesel fuel.

...more...

Huh???

Vacationing in Europe and using dyed diesel????

[UpInArms]

80. 3:49 EST before the close

Dow 10,457.81 -1.82 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,140.07 -7.83 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,218.68 -2.91 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.029 +0.10 (+0.25%)

NYSE Volume 1,480,297,000


3:30PM: The market remains static as the week's closing bell approaches... In terms of the week, refiners (+20.3%), steel (+8.3%), diversified metals (+7.4%), and construction materials (+6.6%) were the biggest winners, bolstered by Hurrican Katrina's damage to the Gulf Coast. On the flip-side, the storm's devastation pushed casinos and gaming (-2.9) into one of the loser slots, joining a host of consumer distretionary groups (i.e., autos, department stores, hotels, and apparel) on the week's bottom ten list...NYSE Adv/Dec 1505/1680, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1176/1769

3:00PM: Little changed since the last update as volumes tapering off into the final hour of trading suggest most trading desks have now emptied ahead of the holiday weekend... Of the 139 S&P groups, Food Retail (+3.5%) remains the best performer, getting a boost from a 12% surge in Albertson's (ABS 23.26 +2.53), while Airlines (+3.4%), Photo Products (+2.3%), Agricultural Products (+1.7%) and Construction (+1.7%) round out the Top Five leaders... Of the Top Ten laggards, oil-related areas continue to turn in the day's poorest performance... NYSE Adv/Dec 1548/1615, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1203/1747 Nasdaq Volume 1,043,186,000

[ozymandius]

81. just before the close & blather

3:56
Dow 10,448.25 -11.38 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,139.28 -8.62 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,218.18 -3.41 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 40.29 +0.10 (+0.25%)
NYSE Volume 1,534,318,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,085,694,000

3:30PM: The market remains static as the week's closing bell approaches... In terms of the week, refiners (+20.3%), steel (+8.3%), diversified metals (+7.4%), and construction materials (+6.6%) were the biggest winners, bolstered by Hurrican Katrina's damage to the Gulf Coast. On the flip-side, the storm's devastation pushed casinos and gaming (-2.9) into one of the loser slots, joining a host of consumer distretionary groups (i.e., autos, department stores, hotels, and apparel) on the week's bottom ten list...NYSE Adv/Dec 1505/1680, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1176/1769

[ozymandius]

82. closing numbers

Dow 10,447.37 -12.26 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,141.07 -6.83 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,218.02 -3.57 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 40.29 +0.10 (+0.25%)
NYSE Volume 1,632,856,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,130,457,000

blather ahead

[ozymandius]

83. cue blather

Close: The equity market began on slightly positive footing after a reassuring August employment report served as an early bullish catalyst. Modest consolidation erased gains midday, but, by and large, the indices spent the session within a tight trading range that lied within close proximity of the unchanged mark... The trading session was a light one, with the long Labor Day weekend occupying participants' thoughts and with many of them getting an early start to it... To wit, the session's trading activity lacked any real sense of conviction and was based on relatively low volume...

Going back to the morning's employment data, Aug. nonfarm payrolls rose l69K, below forecasts of 190K, but an upward revision to July figures (to 242K from 207K) keeps payrolls on track for 3% or greater GDP growth in 2H05; hourly earnings were up just 0.1%, easing wage-pressure concerns, while unemployment rate fell to a four-year low (4.9%)...

Have a peaceful holiday weekend everyone! See you here on Tuesday!

Ozy :hi: