STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 8 September

[ozymandius]

Thursday September 8, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 135 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 262 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 326 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1383
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 7, 2005

Dow... 10,633.50 +44.26 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq... 2,172.03 +5.17 (+0.24%)
S&P 500... 1,236.36 +2.97 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.14% +0.05 (+1.30%)
Gold future... 449.00 +0.40 (+0.09%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[cornermouse]

1. There's the proof.

Ain't nuthin' wrong with the nation or the economy because the stock market went up.

:sarcasm: (Not at you, but at those who think that if the stock market went up, everything's just fine and dandy)

[ozymandius]

2. Sadly, this is the view of most people.

Many think the stock market is the economy. Equally sad is that markets are just casinos that should, however, follow a specific set of forecasting rules based on individual stocks' past performance. Not the case.

Personaly, I could see the stock markets going gangbusters even if our GDP were a meager .5%, and economy hobbled with inflation and unemployment at 20%. That's how divorced from reality I see these markets these days.

[justabob]

4. I have a question

(maybe a stupid question) Was the stock market of the late twenties as irrational as the current market? I admit I know next to nothing of how the market works or of the history of the market. The reaction to the disaster just makes NO sense to me at all. Oil prices so high, hundreds of thousands more people added to unemployemnt rolls, major port facility out of commission.... I don't get it. Has the market ever been this divorced from the reality we see with our own eyes?

[fasttense]

23. A did a quick search for US disasters

1925 the worst Tornado disaster in the US, involved three state (MO, IL and Ind) 689 dead, 2,000 injured $16.5 mil damage.

1928 Coal mine explosion in PA killed 195

1928 Collapse of the St Francis Dams in Cal. 450 dead.

Now compare that to the stock market. The stock market seemed to be on a steady increase from 1921 until 1929. True there were some hiccups and about 1927 there was what we might call a minor recession but it was back up by 1929.

So from a quick review, it looks like major disasters did not seem to bring the stock market down during the 1920s.

[ozymandius]

25. I don't know if "divorced from reality" has any comparison between

now and then.

One of the hallmarks of the '29 crash is the amount of stock purchased on margin. Brokerage firms were loaning money to nearly anyone who wanted to buy stock.

The Federal Reserve could have performed heroically if it had just flooded the markets with liquidity after the crash. It instead did exactly the opposite, causing a chain reaction of market paralysis and bank panic.

It is well established that the '29 market operated with "irrational exuberance" much like Greenscam characterized the 1997 markets about the runup in tech stocks. Like 1929, the prurient wisdom (sic) in 1997-99 gave life to the myth that increasing value of equities would never falter.

The current exuberance of the markets fill me with dread. By this I mean look at the price to earnings ratio among the individual markets, even some highly traded companies. I see little value among equities right now.

[justabob]

68. Thanks for the answers ozymandius and fasttense

Sorry to be so clueless about this stuff... I appreciate your comments. I watch this stuff, but as I said, I have no idea how it all works. All I know is that it doesn't 'feel' right, for lack of a better word.

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Fed in a Corner on Interest Rates

Stock prices wandered lower in early trading after the Labor Department said U.S. labor costs rose by the most in nearly five years and productivity growth slowed in the second quarter. Employment costs for U.S. companies are 4.2% higher than a year ago and gains in worker productivity slowed to 1.8% from 3.2%. This is the lowest reading for productivity gains in the last nine months. The quickest “fix” for companies to reduce their labor costs relative to production is simply to lay-off workers. Higher labor costs and lower productivity is clearly a recipe for higher inflation rates to come. The market’s heightened awareness toward inflationary pressures of record high energy prices combined with rising labor costs is backing the Federal Reserve into the corner on future interest rate increases.

Market participants are begging for interest rate relief from the Fed since the disastrous effects of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast. Yesterday, Senators and Congressmen from both parties urged the Fed to forgo raising interest rates on September 20th to help consumers and businesses recover from the destruction in the South. Interest rates have in fact moved lower since the hurricane hit as hot money moved into bonds in a flight to safety last week. The 10-year note opened the week with a yield of 4.01% and closed today yielding 4.14%.

The lower rates last week helped to increase activity in real estate lending. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its application index rose 6.8%, with the purchase index higher by 6.1% and refinancing up by 7.7% from the prior week. The thirty-year fixed rate fell nine basis points to 5.64% and one-year ARMS fell seven basis points to 4.81%. The Fed continues to talk of higher rates, but so far bond prices have held up fairly well, keeping rates down. Please remember the Fed has brought attention to “inflated asset prices” and wants to see the “froth” come out of the housing market. Now get this from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight; second quarter year-over-year housing price increase was the largest increase in 26 years with a gain of 13.4%. The Fed has recently been targeting asset price inflation, but now they are concerned a decline in home prices could present a risk to the economy. The Fed is boxed in a corner!

-cut-

The markets are going to take a long time to figure out the impact from the storm damages. Our productive capacity has clearly taken a big blow. GDP for the second half could easily come in below 3% growth. Put the sub-3% growth up against an inflation rate of 3%, and we really don’t have any growth at all. The Fed is stuck in the hard spot of holding up asset prices, containing inflation, and defending their Federal Reserve Note as the currency of last resort. Lots to think about!!

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[loudsue]

19. Title should be: Productivity Slows - Ya Can't Get Blood out of a Turnip

How can productivity keep rising? You've already got each American employee doing the work of SIX people! Maybe they can't do the work of NINE people! THAT must be the point at which it quits rising.

Here is where the "elasticity" of employment productivity starts to really kick in. We can call it "the Slave factor" in new economic circles.

Duh.

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

5. 1973 oil embargo redux

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=46328

Today we have an equivalent of $100 barrel oil. With oil selling for over $67 a barrel, what is not well understood on Wall Street is that now gasoline is selling close to $100 oil equivalent. Most economists are used to watching the price of oil in predicting consumer behavior. This is the case because oil and gasoline typically move up and down together percentage wise. In the past when oil was in short supply there was not a refinery shortage so the price increases moved up the supply chain equally. In today’s markets we have a shortage of crude oil and refining capacity. This has led to a dramatic increase in the price of oil and the crack spread. The crack spread is roughly the difference between the price of crude oil and the refined products that the oil refinery produces (gasoline). In other words, the spread of gasoline over oil measures how much value the refinery adds.

Due to increased demand for gasoline, and now Hurricane Katrina, the crack spread has jumped by as much as $25 in the last 2 weeks. Typiclly this spread is closer to $5. This higher spread along with oil prices trading above $70 yielded gasoline prices of more than $95 a barrel. Put another way $70 crude oil + $25 crack spread = $95 a barrel gasoline.

The reason this is important is that many economists are predicting a consumer slowdown if oil goes to $100 a barrel. Recently Standard & Poor’s projected a consumer slowdown should oil hit $100 a barrel. But Katrina has effectively created $100 oil by taking out a number of refineries in Louisiana and Mississippi at the same time as record high-energy demand. This has created a price spike in gasoline that U.S. consumers are now paying for.

snip past charts>

Given the above we were projecting a consumer slowdown before Hurricane Katrina. After the hurricane, we have seen GDP cuts of 0.5%-1% due to the storm. This storm, together with already tight energy markets, is having the same type of effect as the Arab oil embargo of 1973. Although reduced in scale, Katrina combined with the worldwide demand growth in oil has achieved the same result. That result is a major energy shock that should cause a consumer slowdown. According to Daniel Yergin in the Wall Street Journal discussing Katrina “what has happened is on a scale not seen before, and the impact of the price spikes and dislocations will roll across the entire economy.” What is tough to answer is how long will energy prices stay high and how much will they slow economic growth.

more...

This is what I was assuming yesterday when pointing out the article that gave an estimated future cost of gas and oil, but for different time frames making it impossible to see the growing gap between oil and gas prices. Tricky lil' bastards, ain't they?

[54anickel]

6. Indonesia: Asia’s New Weak Link?

Sumptin' don't pass the smell test here....

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

But there is little question that a lot of capricious western speculative capital remains in the region, largely a repository of the “Chinese revaluation trade”. In spite of the comparative paucity of China’s original revaluation (or perhaps because of it), a lot of hot money has remained in the region betting on more to come. Funds have flocked to other obvious “revaluation beneficiaries”, such as the Singapore and Hong Kong dollars, the Malaysian ringgit, and the Korean won. Were the Yudhoyono government to continue to defer taking tough decisions on fuel subsidies (which in themselves could trigger much domestic unrest), that money could start quickly flowing out of the region. Already we are seeing some sort of indirect contagion effect as currencies such as the Singapore dollar, in spite of the latter’s robust fundamentals, have begun to weaken as well against the greenback.

Not only is this “hot money” an ongoing source of potential financial instability in Asia, but very few people demonstrate an understanding of the nature of the flows themselves, which even today are largely speculative in nature, as opposed to stable Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Most market participants are now familiar with standard derivative contracts used in hedging risk, such as forward contracts, futures and listed options. Banks also offer derivative contracts to their clients in the over the counter market (OTC), but there is no market involved in these contracts, and they are (as the 1997 crisis vividly illustrated) individually tailored, usually highly complex combinations of financial instruments packaged together with derivative contracts designed to meet the particular needs of clients. Rather than committing their own capital, the banks often serve in these transactions as intermediaries whose services largely involve creating vehicles that attract widespread retail interest via securitization. And the major objective of these institutions is not so much the maximization of profits via seeking the lowest cost of funds and channeling them to the highest-risk adjusted return, but rather in maximizing the amount of funds intermediated and collecting higher fees and commissions.

This means a shift from continuous risk assessment and risk monitoring of funded investment projects that produce recurring interest income over time to the identification of derivative packages that produce large single payments to the banks, the ultimate impact of the risk never really fully assessed or understood until a crisis eventuates, as was the case in 1997 where the magnitude of the change in the exchange rates of, say, the Korean won, or Thai baht, were so extreme as to transform the very nature of the underlying character of the derivatives packages at the forefront of these capital flows.

There is no way to control these volatile flows in today’s world of derivatives-charged international finance, particularly against a backdrop of extraordinary global liquidity, often wrongly described as “excess savings in search of more efficient returns on investment”. Such flows are persistently justified in terms of (a) maximizing the efficiency of capital worldwide, (b) allowing a specific country to invest more than could be financed from its own savings, (c) bringing modern financial institutions into the country, and (d) deepening the liquidity of the country’s financial system and lengthening investor horizons, thereby making markets more efficient and more stable. In the end the case for free capital flows came down to the classic theory of comparative advantage, as though trade in dollars was essentially similar to trade in widgets.

snip>

It is true that Indonesia has staged a significant turnaround since the Asian financial crisis. But it would be wrong to be too complacent, given that the country still bears significant scars from the previous crisis. And though asset bubbles are not as marked throughout the region as they might have been during the mid-1990s, there is little doubt that the countries’ ongoing efforts to suppress the rise of their respective currencies against the greenback have generated new kinds of domestic credit bubbles, Indonesia included. So a precipitous withdrawal of western capital, although perhaps not presaging something as severe as 1997/98, would still have unpleasant implications for the global financial system. And it wouldn’t take long before we also began question whether these flows did actually optimize market efficiency in a manner constantly reaffirmed by our soon to depart Federal Reserve Chairman. There would be an element of poetic justice if another financial crisis were to erupt on his watch, although, as usual, someone else would be the one to suffer the consequences of Mr Greenspan’s ongoing embrace of New Era economics.

more...

[54anickel]

7. US, China face clash on energy deals (Here we go again)

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/us-china-face-clash-on-energy-deals/2005/09/07/1125772583245.html?oneclick=true

CHINA will be increasingly in conflict with the United States if it continues to pursue energy deals with countries such as Iran and is unlikely to gain the energy security it seeks.

US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick said he was not sure how much of Beijing's energy drive was propelled by new Chinese oil companies or by a government "strategic plan".

But he said it was unlikely that Beijing could guarantee its energy security through contracts with countries that Washington and other states consider troublesome "because you can't lock up energy resources" in a global marketplace.

Instead, the Bush Administration was encouraging China to co-operate with Washington and others to develop energy sources beyond oil and gas, expand oil and gas sources, and improve energy efficiency, he said.

Mr Zoellick is in charge of what Washington calls a new strategic dialogue with Beijing, launched on a trip to China last month amid rising US concern over China's growing economic and military clout.

more...

[Roland99]

8. Oil moves higher as forecasts of demand are lowered. Uhhh...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050908.wstocks0908/BNStory/Business/

U.S. stock futures fell Thursday as oil prices climbed for the first day in four, sparking concerns about rising costs and slowing demand. The move could send Canadian energy shares higher.

So...let me get this straight.


We've been told for over a year now that oil prices have been going up because of the increased demand. Now that that demand forecast is being lowered, oil prices are going to rise.


Uhhhh....

[UpInArms]

28. CIBC World Markets forecasts 2006 avg oil prices at $84

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.427451875-841469302&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- CIBC World Markets on Thursday raised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude oil for 2006 to an average price of $84 a barrel. Jeff Rubin, chief economist and strategist at the Toronto wholesale banking arm of CIBC, said in a report that oil prices will average $93 a barrel in 2007, with prices expected to reach or exceed $100 a barrel by the fourth quarter of 2007. The September Monthly Indicators report said supply and demand factors are pushing oil prices higher. The devastation to oil fields and oil industry infrastructure from Hurricane Katrina will cut current and future production in the Gulf of Mexico, the CIBC study said. Planned expansion of production in the Gulf over the next two years is likely to be cut by half; reducing nearly 300,000 barrels a day of future supply. Meanwhile, production has been stagnant in Russia and capacity is "tapped out" among OPEC nations, the study said.

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.95 Change -0.02 (-0.02%)

Dollar Shows Majors Who Is Boss

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3328&Itemid=39

Dollar continued to reassert its dominance over the majors, with greenback longs consolidating their recent gains, as majors took full advantage of the pause in price action to take back some of the territory. However as liquidity comes back into the market, traders should expect the greenback continue to strengthen in a near-term as recent action became overextended to soon to fast.

<snip>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls once again tried to reestablish their dominance as single currency longs launched a counteroffensive against the greenback positions after the pair found some active bids around the 1.2400 figure. As greenback bulls consolidate their recent gains, a continuation of the dollar advance will most likely see the pair head toward the first line of euro defenses at 1.2333, established by the 20-day SMA A break below most will most likely see the greenback break through 1.2300 and take on 1.2249, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.3477-1.1869 USD rally. A move toward the 1.2250 also should be a decisive for the greenback bulls as it would signal a continuation to the downside due to the break below the trendline that dominated the price action since middle of July. Indicators continue to favor euro with momentum indicator and MACD both above the zero line, while Stochastic and RSI both tread below overbought thus adding to possibility of a pullback.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs continued to retreat after the dollar bulls successfully penetrated the yen defenses protection the psychologically important 110.00 handle. As the price action remain in favor of the greenback longs, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head toward 111.06, a 50-day SMA, with further collapse of yen defenses seeing the dollar bulls taking over the 23.6 Fib of the 104.18-113.74 USD rally at 111.44. A sustained momentum of the greenback advance will most likely see the fall of 112.62, a yen defensive position established by the August 8 daily spike high and a gateway to the 2005 high at 113.68. Indicators support the yen longs with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while both oscillators are sloping downward toward the oversold line.

...more...

Forex - Dollar recovers as US rate hike expectations rise

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/09/08/afx2212718.html

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar recovered further lost ground this morning as expectations of another interest rate hike in the US this month continued to mount in the wake of some relatively hawkish rhetoric from a US Federal Reserve policymaker.

Though Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow stressed the difficulties involved in assessing the economic impact of Hurricane Katrina, he did keep much of the hawkish tone of previous speeches. Specifically he warned that inflation in the US was far from dead.

'Moskow tends to be in the hawkish camp but his emphasis on price pressures suggests that the Fed is still looking to raise rates and any pause will be short-term,' said Neil Mackinnnon, chief economist at ECU Group.

The dollar had been buoyed for most of this year against the euro by a growing yield differential between the US and the 12-nation European single currency zone.

The Fed has raised interest rates ten times since June 2004, and until last week's storm, was widely seen raising its rate target this month, in November and possibly in December. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, has kept its key refi rate unchanged at 2.00 pct since June 2003.

However, expectations that the Fed may keep its key Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50 pct on Sept 20 following a raft of weak economic data, sky-high oil prices and Hurricane Katrina, pushed the dollar down earlier this week to its lowest level against the single currency since the end of May. At one point, the euro traded as high as 1.2590 usd.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Sep 8	8:30 AM		Initial Claims		09/03	-	375K	315K	320K	-	
Sep 8	10:00 AM	Wholesale Inventories	Jul	-	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%	-	
Sep 8	3:00 PM		Consumer Credit		Jul	-	$10.0B	$10.0B	$14.5B	-

It's Maeveday (or Truth to Power Day)!

[UpInArms]

11. Jobless claims fall 1,000 to 319,000

Too early to include much impact of Hurricane Katrina

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAB944631%2DC8B3%2D47F6%2D9CE4%2D47D1CDE4FEFF%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 319,000 last week, the Labor Department estimated Thursday.

The four-week average of new claims rose by 2,000 to 318,500, the highest in seven weeks. Read the report.

The figures include about 10,000 claims related to Hurricane Katrina, a Labor Department spokesman said, adding that upward revisions to last week's data are possible.

Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama state officials were able to report their data for last week, but many of their offices were closed by the storm, making it impossible for some people to file claims, the spokesman said, without providing any details.

Neighboring states that took in refugees also reported a number of Katrina-related jobless claims, the spokesman said, without providing any details.

It's typical for those who lose jobs in natural disasters to wait two or three weeks or even longer before filing for unemployment benefits as they take care of more immediate needs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. U.S. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UNEXPECTEDLY DECLINE (due to petroleum sales)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.4167618866-841467269&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers fell 0.1% in July, the Commerce Department said Thursday, well below economists' expectations of a 0.5% increase. Sales at wholesalers, meanwhile, grew by 0.5%, led by a 7.6% increase in petroleum sales. The inventory-to-sales ratio dropped slightly to 1.18 after hitting 1.19 in June.

[UpInArms]

57. (Consumers tapped out) U.S. consumer credit rises $4.4 bln vs. $11.2 bln e

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.6250738194-841504468&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer credit rose by $4.4 billion, or 2.45% in July, the Federal Reserve said Thursday, well below the $11.2 billion expected by economists. Revolving credit, like credit card debt, fell by $1 billion, or 1.5%, and non-revolving credit like auto loans gained $5.4 billion, or 4.8%, the Fed said. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting consumer credit to rise by $11.2 billion.

So when do these "surprised economists" start collecting their unemployment checks?

[UpInArms]

12. UK's FSA eyes bank data on derivatives delays

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-08T115704Z_01_L08234199_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-DERIVATIVES-FSA.XML

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Britain's Financial Services Authority (FSA) is sifting feedback from banks about delays in derivatives trades ahead of a key meeting with U.S. brokers and regulators next week, a spokesman said on Thursday.

The UK market regulator first warned in February that banks' back offices were not keeping pace with the startling growth in the $8.4 trillion credit derivatives market, raising questions about whether investors could have confidence in the market.

In a worst-case scenario, analysts say, if the market came under stress, participants could be unsure to whom they had exposure and trading could be interrupted.

Now the FSA is considering responses from banks to an updated request for information on delays in settling credit derivatives trades, a spokesman said on Thursday.

"About a month ago, we took the opportunity to write to the firms asking for an update," said the FSA spokesman. "The replies are coming in now and we have to analyse them."

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. U.S. stocks futures slip before oil inventory data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-08T125530Z_01_N08709935_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures declined, indicating a lower market open on Thursday, ahead of U.S. data expected to show sharp drops in crude oil and gasoline inventories due to disruptions from Hurricane Katrina.

<snip>

U.S. light crude rose 63 cents to $65 a barrel ahead of data due at 10:30 a.m. (1430 GMT) that was forecast to show a drop in crude, distillate and gasoline inventories. Analysts have speculated that a sharp rise in energy costs could eliminate the need for further interest rate increases to slow down the economy.

"The big thing we're watching is what the Federal Reserve will do in response to the hurricane. This may very well mean the end of the tightening cycle," said Michael Vogelzang, president of Boston Advisors Inc. "Why now do you need to raise rates again? Gas prices are doing exactly what interest rates are supposed to do."

...more...

Will we be a day late and a dollar short?

[54anickel]

15. Dang, wish I could hang around for the fun today, but I've gotta run.

Have a great day! :hi:

[UpInArms]

17. have a great day 54anickel!

"See" you tomorrow (it will be a short day for me).

:hi:

[UpInArms]

29. DOE Petroleum Inventory Report (waaaayyyy down)

10:30am 09/08/05 U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 6.4 MLN BRLS LAST WEEK: ENERGY DEPT

10:30am 09/08/05 U.S. UNLEADED GAS STKS DOWN 4.3 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:30am 09/08/05 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS DOWN 800,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[UpInArms]

32. Gasoline stocks mark 10th weekly drop: Energy Dept

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.4412540509-841471928&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said motor gasoline inventories dropped for a 10th-straight week, down 4.3 million barrels to total 190.1 million for the week ended Sept. 2. That's 8.6% below the year-ago level. The market expected a huge drop because of Hurricane Katrina's disruption to Gulf output. Crude supplies also dropped by 6.4 million barrels to 315 million. Distillate stocks were down 800,000 barrels at 134.4 million barrels. October unleaded gas is up 0.4% at $2.03 a gallon. October crude is down 7 cents at $64.30 a barrel. October heating oil is down 0.6% at $1.95 a gallon.

[UpInArms]

42. Gold-i-locks reporting cited

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0ED66EAD%2D4F26%2D440E%2D8017%2D3C9BFD604837%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

"The DOE data was all either as expected or somewhat less bearish than expected. And there was an initial sense that if that's the worst Katrina could do, then supplies are not in such bad shape," said Tim Evans, a senior analyst at IFR Markets, in a note to clients.

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. Crude, gasoline slip as traders question data accuracy

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.5071140856-841483512&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude prices fell 1% and unleaded-gasoline futures traded lower in afternoon dealings. Traders questioned whether the reported declines in U.S. petroleum inventories will warrant revisions due to the Gulf Coast chaos caused by Hurricane Katrina. "Major and independent refiners were in crisis management last Thursday and Friday, and filing accurate paperwork on the moving target of storage and production was quite possibly an appropriate afterthought," said Tom Kloza, an analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. October crude is down 52 cents at $63.85 a barrel. October unleaded gas is at $2.02 a gallon, down 0.22 cent.

[UpInArms]

35. API: crude-inventory drop was twice gov't estimate

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.4489090625-841473377&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories fell by 14.3 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 2 -- that's more than twice the government's reported 6.4 million-barrel decline. Motor gasoline inventories fell 4.2 million barrels. Distillate stocks were down 1.7 million barrels, the API said.

Would our government LIE to us???

[UpInArms]

14. Shaw Group begins $100M FEMA contract

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.3865346065-841461741&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Shaw Group Inc. (SGR) said Thursday that it had been awarded a contract worth $100 million by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide support services in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Under the terms of the contract, Shaw will provide housing assistance for displaced residents including site assessments, design, construction, transportation, utilities and facilities management. In Wednesday trading, shares in the Baton Rouge-based company rose 28 cents to $22.

(just trying to "clean up" my mess :D )

[UpInArms]

16. pre-opening blather

9:16 S&P futures vs fair value: -5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.5.

9:01 Cash market remains poised for a lower start as the rebound in oil prices provides an incentive for investors to lock in some recent market gains... In corporate news, eBay (EBAY) has slipped about 3% in early trading amid reports it has offered between $2-3 bln for Skype Technologies... Sears Holdings (SHLD) has plummeted 6.4% thus far following a Q2 disappointment and simultaneously announcing a shake-up in management while Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) has been under pressure after issuing downside FY06 guidance last night

8:36 Futures trade holds relatively steady following claims data, still indicating a slightly lower open for the indices. Initial claims fell 1K to 319K, checking in slightly above expectations but are still at pre-Katrina levels, as the four-week average at a low 318.5K reflects an improving job market. The 10-year note has also held firm, up 6 ticks to yield 4.11%

8:05 Futures versus fair value suggests a lower open for the cash market. Weighing on traders' minds is the first uptick in oil prices ($64.95/bbl +$0.58) in four days, ahead of weekly inventories (10:30 ET), as well as the upcoming initial claims release. At 8:30 ET, the market will receive the first piece of data that captures some of Hurricane Katrina's effect. Economists expect a read of 315K, although the number excludes many victims along the coast unable to reach unemployment offices.

[UpInArms]

18. 9:37 no Rah-Rah from LaLa

Dow 10,610.89 -22.61 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,164.10 -7.93 (-0.37%)
S&P 500 1,232.99 -3.37 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.121 -0.17 (-0.41%)

NYSE Volume 85,494,000
Nasdaq Volume 72,635,000

[UpInArms]

20. Estimate of impact: 1% decline in growth

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/12588978.htm

The nation's economy will grow more slowly during the second half of this year and 400,000 Americans are expected to lose their jobs as a result of the economic fallout from Hurricane Katrina, according to a federal report released Wednesday.

But the long-term economic impact of the deadly storm that devastated New Orleans and the Gulf Coast of Mississippi and Alabama will be relatively muted, and rebuilding activity should give the economy a boost, the Congressional Budget Office said.

The CBO predicted the aftermath of Katrina would bring a reduction in growth of as much as a full percentage point in the second half of this year and that September gas prices will average about 40 percent higher than before the storm.

These impacts were described as ``significant but not overwhelming.'' Still, the CBO cautioned that the economy could suffer a more serious blow if energy supply disruptions along the Gulf Coast last longer than expected.

``Last week, it appeared that larger economic disruptions might occur, but despite continued uncertainty, progress in opening refineries and restarting pipelines now makes those larger impacts less likely,'' CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin wrote in a letter to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., and other congressional leaders.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Mervyn's to lay off 4,800 workers

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/09/08/BUGJDEJTU31.DTL

Mervyn's said Wednesday it will shut down 62 of its underperforming stores, resulting in the loss of 4,800 full-time and part-time jobs.

The privately held Hayward company will pull out of the Michigan and Oklahoma markets entirely and reduce its presence in Colorado, Louisiana and Texas. It will also close its distribution centers in Plano, Texas, and West Valley, Utah.

Spokeswoman Katie Winter said that Mervyn's will focus its attention on its remaining 193 stores in the West and Southwest. California, its largest market with 125 stores, including 29 in the Bay Area, will see only one store closure, in the southern part of the state.

Winter called the decision to close the 62 stores bittersweet. Although the company regrets losing them, she said, they accounted for only 17 percent of its sales, even though they represented 25 percent of its total base. She added that Mervyn's will now have a better chance of strengthening its presence in its core markets by refurbishing stores and opening new ones.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Treasuries rise with oil, disregard jobless claims

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-08T134353Z_01_N08333138_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Thursday morning tracking increases in crude oil prices as the economic impact of Hurricane Katrina remained the bond market's single biggest concern.

Data showing a drop in weekly first-time jobless claims were disregarded because traders and economists expect that sizable, Katrina-related increases in the jobless ranks will be evident only after a few weeks.

To assess Katrina's impact on oil prices, the market was anxiously awaiting U.S. petroleum inventory data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) to judge how the storm has hit crude oil and gasoline supplies. The bond market perceives higher energy prices as a threat to growth, thereby boosting bond prices.

An article in the Wall Street Journal by Greg Ip, an influential Federal Reserve watcher, was making the rounds in a market carefully considering the interest rate outlook in the wake of Katrina.

Ip highlighted the delicate situation the central bank faces in its next policy-making meeting on Sept. 20. It must decide whether the storm has hurt short-term growth enough to merit a pause in its rate-hiking campaign, or if it has stoked enough inflation to merit continuing rate hikes uninterrupted.

...more...

[UpInArms]

39. Treasuries trim gains on oil inventories

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-08T153426Z_01_N08406008_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices trimmed gains on Thursday after after much-anticipated oil industry data showed U.S. gasoline inventories falling less than expected in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

U.S. Government data showed a 4.3-million-barrel decline in gasoline inventories last week, lower than the 6.2 million drop oil analysts had expected. The data caused gasoline futures prices in New York to fall.

The bond market perceives higher energy prices as a threat to growth.

"Bonds have been really well-correlated with gasoline on the way up and, now, on the way down. As long as refiners keep coming back on line, it'll be constructive for the economy," said George Goncalves a Treasury strategist with Banc of America Securities in New York.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Dec gold climbs to six-month high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.4115586574-841466404&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold is up $3.60 at $452.60 an ounce in New York, after trading as high as $453.90, an intraday level the contract hasn't seen since March 16. "Investors are aware that demand for gold in the second quarter was up 14%," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. And "from an investment standpoint, adding gold to one's portfolio is a protective hedge against uncertainty in the outlook for the economy as well as potential inflation -- or worse, stagflation," he said. Metals indexes also gained ground, with the Amex Gold Bugs Index ($GOX) up 2%.

[UpInArms]

50. Gold prices tap six-month high, close at highest in a month

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.5780795833-841496240&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold climbed $1.70 to close at $450.70 an ounce in New York. It ended the session at its highest level since mid-August but earlier, it climbed to a six-month high of $453.90 on strong demand and inflation concerns. The December contracts for silver and copper defied the strength, with each losing more than 1%

[UpInArms]

27. 10:20 EST red and blather

Dow 10,600.54 -32.96 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,168.08 -3.95 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,232.69 -3.67 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.123 -0.15 (-0.36%)

NYSE Volume 373,915,000
Nasdaq Volume 322,558,000

10:00 More of the same for the averages as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Faring the worst so far has been Consumer Discretionary (-0.9%), hit by the double impact of Sears Holdings' (SHLD 126.38 -8.47) disappointing Q2 earnings report (revenues were $13.19 bln vs. the $13.69 bln consensus) and Hovnanian Enterprises' (HOV 57.10 -4.49) downside earnings outlook (FY06 EPS of $8.05-8.40 vs. $8.50 consensus)... Technology, however, has recently inched into positive territory, getting a boost from modest gains in the hardware and semiconductor groups... The later will be in focus all day, heading into Q1 earnings from National Semiconductor (NSM 25.04 +0.43) and mid-quarter updates from Intel (INTC 25.78 +0.12) and Texas Instruments (TXN 33.51 +0.21) after the bell... ..DJTA -0.6%. ..DJUA -0.1%. ..SOX +0.5%. ..XOI +1.0%. ..BTK -0.7%. ..Nasdaq 100 -0.2%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -0.4%. ..Russell 2000 -0.5%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 736/1445. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 783/1549.

9:40 Market opens on a downbeat note, in line with futures indications, as a rebound in oil prices prompts modest consolidation following gains that have lifted the S&P 1.3% so far this week... After plunging 7.3% over the last three days, crude oil prices ($64.88/bbl +$0.51) have rebounded amid concerns that weekly oil inventories might have declined the most since Hurricane Ivan hit the Gulf a year ago... At 10:30 ET, the EIA is expected to show a 7.7 mln barrel draw in crude supplies, a 6.25 mln barrel draw in gasoline supplies and a 1.9 mln barrel draw in distillates due to production and distribution problems after Katrina... Separately, July wholesale inventories (consensus +0.6%) will be released at the top of the hour... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

[UpInArms]

30. 10:36 markets recover on bad petroleum inv report

Dow 10,617.26 -16.24 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,170.76 -1.27 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,234.05 -2.31 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.132 -0.06 (-0.14%)

NYSE Volume 465,959,000
Nasdaq Volume 394,373,000

10:30 Major indices continue to chalk up modest losses as investors find few catalysts to extend recent market gains... Aside from rising oil prices, investors have also sifted through some economic data... Earlier, initial claims fell 1K to 319K (consensus 315K), a low level that reflects pre-Katrina conditions of a tight job market, while July wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell -0.1% as the market looked for an 0.6% gain... But neither report has had much of an impact on overall trading as participants digest the much anticipated oil report that has just hit the wires... Crude oil supplies fell 6.45 mln barrels (consensus -7.7 mln), gasoline inventories fell 4.3 mln barrels (consensus -6.25 mln) and distillates rose 816K (consensus -1.9 mln)... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 992/1797. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 829/1724.

[UpInArms]

33. Spinners reverse the numbers to confuse ????

and distillates rose 816K (consensus -1.9 mln)

Distillates fell 800,000

[UpInArms]

31. Pumping Us Dry

http://villagevoice.com/news/0536,ridgewaycolu,67514,2.html

The very first thing George W. Bush did in response to Hurricane Katrina was to offer a helping hand—not to the people stranded on rooftops in New Orleans, but to his friends in the oil industry. These were the same people who gave him $52 million in his last campaign. The president released millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve so the oil companies would have enough fuel to make gas and keep the country going. But the companies don't need this oil. They're already swimming in it.

Pouring more oil into the marketplace didn't reduce gasoline prices, which kept on going up, hitting $4 a gallon in some places.

While crude oil production doubtless was curtailed by the storm, the companies face a surplus, not a shortage, of crude oil. So why dump more on the market?

“Despite growing inventories, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by nearly 5 million barrels over the past 3 weeks,” wrote the federal Energy Information Administration. Continuing in the clipped industry jargon, the agency added, “While this may not appear to be a substantial build, it comes at a time when crude oil inventories typically decline, as refiners use more crude to make gasoline needed for current demand and heating oil as they stock up for the winter.”

Thus, any crude oil inventory increase during the month of August, much less one of five million barrels over a three-week period, might lead one to expect prices to drop. Yet the price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has risen by $5 per barrel! If prices don't fall under these conditions, what will make them fall?

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. 11:03 numbers (perhaps "glitch" is corrected?)

Dow 10,599.51 -33.99 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,169.17 -2.86 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,232.77 -3.59 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.135 -0.03 (-0.07%)

NYSE Volume 627,205,000
Nasdaq Volume 520,733,000

[UpInArms]

36. Spinners still LYING

11:00 Stocks bounce off session lows, as a better than expected oil report pushes oil prices into the red; but the recovery effort is short-lived as oil almost as quickly climbs back into the plus column... Even though gasoline inventories fell for a tenth straight week and crude oil supplies fell for the second time in about four months, declines of 4.3 mln barrels and 6.5 mln barrels were smaller than expected declines of 6.25 mln and 7.7 mln barrels, respectively... An unexpected 816K barrel build in distillates, which will soon displace gasoline in importance as we head into heating oil season, versus an expected draw of 1.9 mln barrels, has also provided some reassurance that production and distribution problems related to Katrina may not be as bad as many have estimated... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1166/1749. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1005/1661.

API: crude-inventory drop was twice gov't estimate By Myra P. Saefong
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories fell by 14.3 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 2 -- that's more than twice the government's reported 6.4 million-barrel decline. Motor gasoline inventories fell 4.2 million barrels. Distillate stocks were down 1.7 million barrels, the API said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.4489090625-841473377&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

[IMayBeWrongBut]

40. Distillate stocks huh.

Like heating oil? It's going to be a cold winter for some people.

[UpInArms]

45. that's the one

this winter is shaping up to be a nasty one for the average (or below) person here in this country.

[54anickel]

62. Heard a report last night calling for a 70% increase in heating costs.

Sounds like that will include natural gas as well as heating oil.
Cold winter indeed. Bet there will be lots of snug-sack sales!!!

[UpInArms]

51. Economy faces tough winter: Bodman

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-08T162602Z_01_MCC848463_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-ENERGY-WINTER-DC.XML

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will face a tough winter due to high energy prices caused partly by a disruption in oil and natural gas supplies from Hurricane Katrina, U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman warned on Thursday.

"There is no doubt that this is going to be a very tough winter season for the American economy (and) for American homeowners," Bodman said in an interview on the "Fox & Friends" television news program.

The Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday Americans who warm their homes with natural gas could see their fuel costs jump by as much as 71 percent this winter in some parts of the country.

Residential heating bills for heating oil will increase by 31 percent, and electricity users will see their costs rise by 17 percent, the Energy Department's analytical arm said in its latest monthly energy forecast.

...more...

[54anickel]

63. Sheesh, and here we converted from our old oil burner to gas a

few years ago. Dang! :-(

[UpInArms]

37. Check Kiting to the EXTREME: U.S. Treas Dept to sell $32 bln bills on Mond

U.S. Treasury Dept to sell $32 bln bills on Monday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-08T151416Z_01_WBT003791_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday it will sell $17 billion of three-month bills and $15 billion of six-month bills on Monday, Sept. 12.

The bills will be issued on Thursday, Sept. 15.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund an estimated $35.01 billion publicly held bills maturing Sept. 15 and to pay down about $3.01 billion in debt.

The three-month bills mature on Dec. 15, while the six-month bills mature on March 16.

Treasury said $5.30 billion of the three-month bills can be excluded when bidders calculate their net long positions. The net long reporting threshold for the three-month bills is $5.95 billion and for the six-month bills it is $5.25 billion.

Noncompetitive bids must be received by 12:00 noon EDT (1600 GMT) and competitive bids by 1:00 p.m. (1700 GMT).

The CUSIP for the three-month bills is 912795WE7 and for the six-month bills it is 912795WT4.

[IMayBeWrongBut]

44. Pick one

Check Kiting or 0.4% instant inflation. They will probably just call it "aggressive cash management" or some such nonsense.

[UpInArms]

49. do I have to pick only one?

[54anickel]

64. GACK!!!! Always love to see it in pictures...n/t

[UpInArms]

38. Budget deficit yet another storm victim

http://www2.dailynews.com/news/ci_2996846

WASHINGTON - The federal deficit may have been the last thing on California congressional leaders' minds Friday as lawmakers approved $10.5 billion in Hurricane Katrina relief aid, but analysts say the newest burden on the national debt shows a federal unwillingness to budget for major disasters.

"Obviously it's going to cost a lot of money. My guess is that it will add tens of billions of dollars to the budget, and since there is no extra money, it's going to add to the deficit," said Robert Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a D.C.-based group that advocates for the elimination of the national debt.

Members of Congress, Bixby said, "pretend that emergencies like this are not going to happen when they make the budget."

President Bush has vowed that the money approved Friday for Hurricane Katrina relief is just a down payment, and that more will follow for emergency efforts and rebuilding.

"In terms of dollars and cents, we know it's going to be very expensive in terms of the federal share," said House Appropriations Chairman Rep. Jerry Lewis, R-Redlands.

He noted that Congress spent a total of $14 billion for relief for the four previous hurricanes that have hit the United States. "This one, all by itself, will be much larger than that, but I don't know yet what that means," he said.

Regardless, lawmakers said that with the federal government already spending about $330 billion more than it has, any emergency funds will add to the debt - but it's a moral imperative to do so.

...more...

But...but...but...

(from DU thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1762359&mesg_id=1762359

-thanks to Roland99-

In the wake of what the Wall Street Journal projected may be the most expensive natural disaster in American history, the Republican Leadership in the House of Representatives limited floor consideration of the $52 billion Katrina relief bill proposed by President Bush and voted to reject any Democratic efforts to amend the bill to include a wider array of relief measures, RAW STORY has learned.

Democrats said no one had even seen a copy of the legislation.

Voting along party lines, Republicans denied a measure that would have allowed for two hours of discussion and opened up the measure to be amended.

The Republican leadership pushed through a Suspension Rule in the House Rules Committee that blocked any members from offering amendments to the bill. Rep. Louise M. Slaughter (D-NY), the ranking Democrat on the Committee, led opposition to the rule.

[UpInArms]

41. Global default rate rises to 2 pct in Aug--Moody's

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-08T154302Z_01_WNA7740_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-DEFAULTS-MOODY-S-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The global default rate rose to 2 percent in August from 1.8 percent in July, Moody's Investors Service reported on Thursday.

Moody's predicted the default rate will rise modestly over the next six to 12 months, stemming from rising energy prices and pockets of credit weakness in certain sectors, including airlines and automakers.

[UpInArms]

43. Moody's outlines possible Katrina effect on local banks

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.4845230903-841479582&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said it anticipates continued disruption in the core banking franchises of banks whose operations are concentrated in southern Mississippi and the New Orleans region, which have been the most heavily affected by Hurricane Katrina. Moody's noted that Hancock Holding Co. (HBHC) based in Gulfport, Miss., Whitney Holding Corp. (WTNY) and Hibernia Corp. (HIB) , both based in New Orleans, are the most significantly affected of the rated U.S. banks. In the short-term, Moody's expects that the banks will focus on bringing as much of their respective operations back to pre-hurricane levels as possible. Moody's said it's likely that the banks will incur one-time charges related to the storm. It said the banks' local franchises generated healthy core earnings prior to the storm and that, combined with robust capital positions, give all three rated local banks the ability to absorb potential costs. Moody's said it will focus on the potential for each of the banks to rebuild its revenue and earnings base while managing its non-performing assets.

[ozymandius]

47. lunchtime check-in

12:24
Dow 10,604.85 -28.65 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,172.98 +0.95 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,233.55 -2.81 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 41.26 -0.12 (-0.29%)
NYSE Volume 938,005,000
Nasdaq Volume 751,618,000

[UpInArms]

48. blather

12:00 Range-bound trading persists midday and leaves the stock market mostly in the red. The vacillating price of crude has occupied the morning's spotlight, with its initial uptick sparking profit-taking on the heels of the week's broad-based gains spurred by oil's three-session decline. The 10:30 release of the EIA's inventory data proved better than expected in the wake of Hurricane Katrina's impact on supply and distribution. Oil initially dipped but soon recovered and has since hovered around the unchanged mark. Accordingly, the Energy sector has had a choppy morning and is presently trending negative (-0.02%) alongside crude's current price (-$0.37 at 64.00/bbl), but holds its own and stands as the best of the losers. The Consumer Discretionary sector is faring worst, off 0.8% on the combined factors of oil's rebound and negative news on the corporate front. Most notably, Sears Holdings (SHLD 128.15 -6.70) reported Q2 earnings below consensus earlier and, as a result, shares have fallen 5%, dragging down the retail group by about 1%. Also weighing on the sector has been a 2.4% sell-off in the Homebuilding group, after Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV 57.38 -4.21) delivered a disappointing FY06 earnings outlook...

The Technology sector, however, has been the session's bright spot, representing the only one of ten sectors to stay solidly above the unchanged mark. Anticipating positive mid-quarter reports from bellwethers Intel (INTC 26.02 +0.36) and Texas Instruments (TXN 33.81 +0.51), the market has directed buying interest into the sector as a whole...

Separately, initial claims fell 1K to 319K (consensus 315K), a low level that reflects pre-Katrina conditions of a tight job market; but since the report has yet to show the impact from hurricane Katrina and does not indicate how claims might trend after that, the data have had little impact on trading. Another economic report attracting minimal interest has been July wholesale inventories, which unexpectedly fell -0.1% versus an expected rise of 0.6%). But since the data say nothing about personal spending consumption, the report has not moved either stocks or bonds... Speaking of, the 10-year note is up 4 ticks to yield 4.12%...

..DJTA -0.6%. ..DJUA -0.1%. ..SOX +0.8%. ..DOT +0.1%. ..XOI +0.1%. ..BTK -0.3%. ..Nasdaq 100 +0.1%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -0.2%. ..Russell 2000 -0.4%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1235/1811. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1081/1675.

11:30 The indices continue to trade within a tight range but selling remains widespread across most areas... Technology (+0.4%), however, continues to stand alone above the flat line... The home entertainment group has surged 1.7%, fueled by a 1.6% jump in Electronic Arts (ERTS 57.43 +0.88), but the sector as a whole enjoys buying interest in chip stocks, as the market anticipates encouraging mid-quarter updates from Texas Instruments' (TXN 33.74 +0.44) and Intel's (INTC 25.88 +0.22)... Meanwhile, the Energy sector (-0.1%) has recently pulled back amid a combination of crude oil's back-and-forth action and relative weakness in Exxon Mobil (XOM 61.40 -0.06) and Chevron (CVX 62.29 -0.08), the sector's two most influential components with a combined weighting of more than 30%... ..SOX +0.8%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1138/1850. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1015/1713.

Ozy got the numbers, I'll supply the blather :hi:

[UpInArms]

52. US housing market could slow following hurricane

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-08T172108Z_01_N04470224_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Average U.S. interest rates on 30-year mortgages were unchanged in the latest week, but mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said on Thursday that housing growth could slow in the near-term as the impact of Hurricane Katrina ripples throughout the industry.

U.S. 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.71 percent in the week ended Sept. 8, unchanged from a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac. Fifteen-year mortgages averaged 5.30 percent, down slightly from 5.32 percent last week.

One-year adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) also fell to an average of 4.45 percent from 4.48 percent.

"We expect that near-term growth will now be a bit weaker than had been anticipated, due in very large part to the disruption in economic activity brought on by Katrina last week," Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a statement.

...more...

[daleo]

69. One would think mortgage rates would be heading up

Bush claims he won't roll back the tax cut or the Iraq war. The flood will cost the government hundreds of billions, which will have to be borrowed. So, interest rates should be heading up.

[UpInArms]

53. SnowJob opens piehole - garbage falls out

US's Snow-economic impact of Katrina temporary

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-08T164324Z_01_WBT003794_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-KATRINA-SNOW-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Hurricane Katrina's impact on the U.S. economy will likely be temporary and limited to the last six months of the year, Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Thursday.

"The consequences of this disaster for the national economy will be seen, I think, primarily in the third quarter and the fourth quarter and I think they'll be temporary," Snow said at a press conference at the Treasury Department.

"The consequences for the region are far-reaching and significant and that will take a significant amount of time for the rebuilding," Snow said.

"temporary" and "limited" but "far-reaching" and "significant"?

Huh? Which one is it?

[54anickel]

65. Heh-heh, that's a CYA statement if I ever saw one.

[UpInArms]

54. 2:19 EST (where are the faeries?)

Dow 10,590.75 -42.75 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,167.07 -4.96 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,231.60 -4.76 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.141 +0.03 (+0.07%)

NYSE Volume 1,305,221,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,071,779,000

2:00 Stocks still mired in relatively tight trading ranges, showing little reaction to a recent pullback in the Treasury market... Within the last hour, the benchmark 10-year note (-2/32) has slipped into negative territory to yield 4.14%, losing some steam following today's reopened $8.0 bln 10-year auction that awarded investors 4.134%... While indirect bidding is not generally significant with reopenings, participation from foreign central banks of 22.1%, which checked in well below the 46.9% in August, may be spurring some modest consolidation in bonds... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1270/1895. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1190/1685.

1:30 The major indices continue to hold their place as buyers and sellers alike remain near the sidelines... While Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%) has not relinquished its loser seat, extending its year-to-date 4.2% decline, a few sub-industries of relative strength have emerged. Footwear has gained 0.7%, computers and electronics are up 0.6%, and housewares have risen 0.3%... The modest support offered by these groups, however, have been unable to offset the 2.5% loss in homebuilders, home furnishing's 1.4% slide, and retail's 1.0% dip... Of the laggards, though, it's the internet retail segment that represents the biggest drag, off 3.5% following reports that eBay (EBAY 39.00 -1.46) is in talks to acquire Skype Technologies, which could fetch as much as $5 bln... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1247/1889. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1186/1671.

1:00 Little has changed over the past half an hour, but Energy (+0.1%), has, however, come back from the red... Despite respectable gains in Altria (MO 72.10 +1.04), Intel (INTC 25.99 +0.33), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.79 +0.33), the blue chip average has been unable to rise amid pressure from 24 of its 30 components that offsets the trio's momentum. While Tech (+0.5%) has been on the up all day, tobacco (+1.4%) has emerged as a pocket of relative strength on account of its defensive attributes... Along that line, gold has become a front runner on the back of Newmont Mining's (NEM 41.21 +0.74) 1.8% hike... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1239/1878. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1176/1660.
12:35 National Semiconductor (NSM 26.05 +1.44) has recently hit a 52-week high after reporting an upbeat fiscal Q1 (Aug) report, adding to an initial 2.3% charge in its shares... NSM has reported Q1 (Aug) GAAP earnings of $0.24 per share (consensus $0.21) on revenues of $493.8 mln (consensus $464.5 mln) and, in addition to a new $400 mln stock repurchase program, sees sequential Q2 revenue growth of 5%, or approx $518.5 mln (consensus $488.8 mln)... The Philadelphia Semi Index has subsequently jumped 1.5%, as the encouraging report has served as a bullish boost across the chip space ahead of updated outlooks from TXN (1.7%) and INTC (+1.4%)... Aside from the latter touching a session high on NSM's report, further upside momentum in analog chip makers like LLTC (+1.4%) and MXIM (+1.5%) has also helped the Nasdaq inch back into positive territory... ..SOX 1.5%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1223/1842. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1126/1678.

[UpInArms]

55. PIEHOLE ALERT (Damage Control?)

2:31pm 09/08/05 BUSH: GOV GOAL TO MAKE BENEFITS EASY TO COLLECT FOR VICTIMS

2:32pm 09/08/05 BUSH: SEPT 16 DECLARED NATIONAL DAY OF PRAYER, REMEMBRANCE

2:30pm 09/08/05 BUSH: FEDERAL GOV WON'T PENALIZE STATES FOR AIDING VICTIMS

2:29pm 09/08/05 BUSH: EVACUEE STATUS ENABLES RECEIPT OF FEDERAL BENEFITS

2:28pm 09/08/05 BUSH: FEDERAL BENEFITS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR KATRINA VICTIMS

2:29pm 09/08/05 BUSH: GRANTING EVACUEE STATUS TO KATRINA VICTIMS

2:27pm 09/08/05 BUSH: MORE THAN 400,000 FAMILIES REGISTERED FOR ASSISTANCE

2:27pm 09/08/05 BUSH: KATRINA VICTIMS CAN REGISTER FOR LONG-TERM ASSISTANCE

[54anickel]

66. WTF, especially on those first 3? Only 400K registered? Think there'd

be a lot more. :shrug:

[ozymandius]

56. 2:50

Dow 10,593.94 -39.56 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,167.53 -4.50 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,232.49 -3.87 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 41.38 0.00 (0.00%)
NYSE Volume 1,433,600,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,176,499,000

2:25PM: Major averages extend their reach into negative territory, but Technology continues to show its resilience in the face of broad-based consolidation...

While the sector has pulled back somewhat on weakness within hardware, as both Dell (DELL 34.51 -0.61) and Gateway (GTW 2.52 -0.15) have cited problems getting Intel chips to fill orders and could see added supply tightness from Intel (INTC 26.10 +0.44) in its mid-quarter update tonight, gains in semiconductor (i.e. INTC, TXN), software (i.e. ADBE, SYMC) and networking (i.e. QCOM, GLW) could close the Tech sector (+0.3%) in positive territory for the year... Separately, July consumer credit (consensus $10.0 bln) will be released at 3:00 ET... SOX +1.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1235/1960, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1180/1728

[UpInArms]

58. 3:04 EST

Dow 10,577.14 -56.36 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,164.41 -7.62 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,230.39 -5.97 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4,135 -0.03 (-0.07%)

NYSE Volume 1,499,736,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,236,058,000

[ozymandius]

59. giving yesterday back and then some

3:16
Dow 10,570.21 -63.29 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,161.53 -10.50 (-0.48%)
S&P 500 1,229.55 -6.81 (-0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 41.39 +0.01 (+0.02%)
NYSE Volume 1,565,311,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,289,792,000

3:00PM: Sellers remain in control of the action heading into the final hour of trading, as market breadth continues to deteriorate... As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE outpace advancers by a 20 to 11 margin while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold a 17 to 11 edge over declining issues...

Adding to today's struggles have been the major indices' inability to find initial support near key technical levels of 10610, 1233 and 2162 on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, respectively, as total volume at the latter is running above the pace of the last few days but slightly slower at the NYSE, which has only recently surpassed 1.0 bln shares... NYSE Adv/Dec 1165/2056, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1141/1795

[UpInArms]

60. 3:49 EST recovering by ignoring report (in blather)

Dow 10,593.78 -39.72 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,165.78 -6.25 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,231.88 -4.48 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.139 +0.01 (+0.02%)

NYSE Volume 1,762,550,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,464,332,000

3:30PM: Market showing no signs of improving, and actually carves out new session lows as it heads into the close... Meanwhile, the Fed has recently shown that consumer credit in July slid to $4.4 bln, well below forecasts of $10.0 bln and compared to June's 8% surge to $14.6 bln. However, since the data are subject to massive revisions and released well after every other consumer spending indicator, the market has basically ignored the report and appears poised to close at its worst levels of the day...NYSE Adv/Dec 1167/2036, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1054/1911

[UpInArms]

61. Assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets resigning

(this is the second resignation this week - one was from the SEC)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38603.662309919-841511206&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Timothy Bitsberger, the Treasury Department's assistant secretary for financial markets, is leaving the department Oct. 21, the Treasury announced Thursday. Bitsberger, whose roles included federal debt management and financial regulations, is resigning to pursue a job in the private sector, he told Treasury Secretary John Snow in a letter. He has worked at Treasury since October 2001.

I think there are some huge red flags being raised.

[UpInArms]

67. closing

Dow 10,595.93 -37.57 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,166.03 -6.00 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,231.67 -4.69 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.139 +0.01 (+0.02%)

NYSE Volume 1,941,081,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,613,100,000

Close: The market took a break Thursday, as a rebound in oil prices and uncertainty about a post-Katrina economy prompted investors to lock recent market gains. While the S&P has shown its resilience of late, rallying 1.3% in just two days and still up nearly 2.0% since Hurricane Katrina struck, on the belief the U.S. economy can weather the storm's impact, doubt returned to close nine out of ten economic sectors to the downside...

At 10:30 ET, investors got their first look at oil inventories since Hurricane Katrina struck. Crude oil supplies fell for a second consecutive week, gasoline inventories fell for a tenth straight time, and distillates also fell, but smaller than expected declines of 6.5 mln barrels (consensus -7.7 mln), 4.3 mln barrels (consensus 6.25 mln) and 816K barrels (consensus -1.9 mln), providing some relief that the damage may not have been as extensive as initially thought. But the subsequent pullback in oil prices was short-lived, keeping buyers on the sidelines in anticipation of more influential catalysts to extend the market's upside momentum...

As for the nine losers, the Consumer Discretionary sector fared worst, off 0.9% on the combined factors of oil's rebound and negative news on the corporate front. Most notably, Sears Holdings (SHLD 127.97 -6.87) reported Q2 earnings below consensus this morning, sending shares down 5%, and the retail group (1.3%) down with it. A 2.0% sell-off in the Homebuilding group, after Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV 57.38 -4.21) delivered a disappointing FY06 earnings outlook, also bogged down the sector...