STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 12 September

[ozymandius]

Monday September 12, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 131 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 266 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 330 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1387
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 9, 2005

Dow... 10,678.56 +82.63 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq... 2,175.51 +9.48 (+0.44%)
S&P 500... 1,241.48 +9.81 (+0.80%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.12% -0.02 (-0.39%)
Gold future... 453.00 +2.30 (+0.51%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. In case you missed it...

The story broke last week of the Fed's manipulation of the stock market. Of course, regulars here know about it. Here's the discussion thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4719415

and the story:

http://www.freemarketnews.com/nview.php?nseq=787

more story:

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=31493896&brk=1

[AnneD]

43. Morning Marketeers,

:donut:One of the things I like most is that the story and evals I get here are far more unvarnished than what I can find anywhere else. Kudos's to those of you that seek out those nuggets of truth that keep the rest of us informed. Once again, this article shows how good this thread is at keeping us ahead of the curve. By the way, the toon was not totally accurate. The Blame Clinton sign was not among the choices, and we all know how often that comes up. Happy hunting......and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
What Does it Mean that the Secondary Trend is Bullish?

In these Wrap Ups I often talked about both the Primary and the Secondary trend. Most all of the work presented here is from the bigger picture perspective in relation to the Primary trend. As I have also discussed in the past, there are phases within each of these longer-term Primary trends. According to Dow theory, both Primary bull and bear markets unfold in three phases. It is the counter trend moves separating these phases that generally constitute the Secondary trend. I discussed this in the July 29th Wrap Up, and you may want to review that article at this time as well.

Simplistically, when a market is in its third and final phase and a confirmed Dow theory signal occurs, it indicates that the Primary trend has reversed. Then we look for each of these phases to unfold in the newly established Primary trend, which again unfolds in three stages.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

3. The Greenspan Levee:

Last entry in the Credit Bubble Bulletin

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

snip>

It has become, these days, increasingly interesting to watch key policymakers (Mr. Greenspan, in particular) and our more attuned pundits jockeying to buttress their reputations in preparation for the inescapable financial storm. The always-ingenious Mr. Greenspan has focused the debate on narrow “risk premiums” and unsustainable liquidity, in the process setting the stage for policymaker finger-pointing at overzealous market participants when boom inevitably turns bust. Powerful Market Pundits, on the other hand, would like to fashion the debate around the “Greenspan Put,” attempting to walk a very fine line as stalwart supporters of Wall Street finance and general supporters of Federal Reserve inflationary policies. Things have been so good – the Greenspan Fed so successful in fostering “price stability” – that the upshot of low yields across the risk spectrum has been an ironic expansion of risk-taking behavior. Minksy’s astute “stability is destabilizing” hypothesis is, today, an all too alluring expedient. It is, nonetheless, decidedly unsuitable analysis.

snip>

If it were merely a case of years of system stability breeding a bout of risk-taking behavior, the core of underlying system fundamentals would today be sound. They are patently unsound. If a stable financial and economic backdrop was the locus fueling destabilizing behavior, the Fed would not have allowed itself to be hogtied into (ineffective) baby-step rate increases. Indeed, the key dynamic today is financial and economic systemic fragility, and this reality resonates kindly throughout the bond market. The Conundrum is a manifestation of the Powerful Bubble Interplay of Acute System Fragility and Ongoing Rampant Asset-based Lending/Liquidity Excesses (Mega-Monetary Disorder).

I’ve never been a big fan of the notion of the “Greenspan Put.” I am, however, warming to the notion of a Greenspan Levee. The Greenspan Put conveys that there is a market instrument/mechanism always available to right the markets’ wrongs – an exercise of “mopping things up.” A Levee, on the other hand, works splendidly until it fails. If the water level is sufficiently high, a breach guarantees a catastrophic outcome (only afterwards will the toxic mop-up commence). The Greenspan Levee brooks the massive and unrelenting inflation of Wall Street finance. Worse yet, we have passed the point where our policymakers will dare scrutinize precarious system dynamics or attendant acute systemic risk.

And, quite definitely, there is a moral hazard component to ongoing excesses. But the prominent aspect of today’s Credit Bubble and Associated Global Liquidity Bubble is the structural nature of asset-based lending, securitization and securities trading, and derivative risk-transferring Credit systems now prominent on a global basis. The so-called “Greenspan put” is not some pardonable policy error that nurtured extra risk- taking (to be “mopped-up” whenever deemed necessary) that Wall Street would like us to believe. It cannot be defended as a necessary response to systemic risks, “deflation” or otherwise. Rather, the Greenspan Levee became a fundamental aspect of the evolving financial system - a critical facet of The World of Wall Street Finance, with Trillions of dollars of MBS, ABS, CDOs, CLOs, CMOs, and myriad “structured” products; unfathomable amounts of interest-rate, Credit, currency and other financial insurance; explicit and implicit debt guarantees (including the GSEs); and the widespread use of dynamic hedging trading strategies for “risk management.”

For the Wall Street Finance Juggernaut to remain viable, Greenspan had to guarantee liquid and “continuous” (no panics!) markets. For this, he has to ensure an ever-expanding financial sector. For this, he had to peg financing costs, manipulate financial returns and do so transparently. Because of this, he essentially invited massive leveraged speculation that then had to be accommodated. Because of this, he and Dr. Bernanke had to erect an edifice of marketplace assurances that the Fed would never tolerate system deleveraging and/or Credit contraction – all in the name of fighting the scourge of deflation. These assurances – the “Greenspan Levee” – have worked to this point swimmingly. But the dilemma for the Greenspan Levee is that it has emboldened the Wall Street Inflationary Liquidity Machine, along with energized Credit systems around the globe, that cannot today be reined in. A breech and a “flood” are anything but low probability events.

more...

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.38 Change +0.49 (+0.56%)

Busy Week Ahead Should Bring More Excitement for Dollar Traders

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3381&Itemid=39

US Dollar

After a week of recovery, the dollar finally ended the day marginally lower against the euro. In retrospect, the theme of the week has been consolidation. The lack of any significant US economic releases and the subsiding anxiety surrounding Hurricane Katrina has helped the dollar recuperate some of its previous losses. Overall, the dollar remains weaker against the Euro compared to its value at the beginning of last week. Oil futures have also retraced significantly and are now trading around $63.65 a barrel – which has helped to provide support for the dollar. Next week though, trading should be a bit more interesting as we anticipate a barrage of important data. The US will be releasing both producer and consumer prices, retail sales, the trade balance, industrial production, current account balance, the Treasury International Capital flow report as well as the weekly jobless claims report. The reason why this upcoming week’s report will be particularly important is because it is the first labor market report that is expected to see the impact of Hurricane Katrina. Meanwhile there is no doubt at this point that Katrina has boosted global inflation. Today we saw import prices jump 1.3% m/m in August. However if you exclude energy prices, import price growth was flat. We should see a similar situation in CPI and PPI where headline prices shoot higher but core price growth remains muted. Retail sales are expected to take a big dive in the month of August while the trade balance is expected to widen. From an initial glance at market expectations for US data, it looks like pessimism could be the tone for next week. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve gave its first hint that Greenspan may not stay beyond his scheduled retirement date on January 31, 2006. The Fed changed their first monetary policy meeting next year to one day instead of two in order to avoid spanning the terms of two Chairmans. If the fate of the US economy is still as uncertain in January 2006 as it is now, there could be a lot of jitteriness in the markets about whether the next Chairman will have what it takes to turn the economy around. If the market thinks that he doesn’t, it could be a big negative for the dollar. We have yet to hear word about who is expected become the next Fed Chairman but it should not and cannot be too long before he begins actively talking a potential replacement.

...more...

Dollar Advance Crushes Majors Defenses

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3387&Itemid=39

Market Outlook:
After few weeks of broad based dollar sell-off and last weeks distribution, majors are beginning to cave in as more traders came back after the summer vocation and took the gift of an overextended price action. As dollar bulls pile back into the market, a next move to the downside might turnout to be more than a retrace, a trend is in the Autumn air, a dollar dominated trend, with Commodity block majors on the list for a long departure.

<snipping charts>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls were in full retreat after the greenback longs sprang into action and wasted no time in pushing the pair below the 1.2400 figure as the dollar longs continued to reestablish their dominance. As the price action remains on the side of the greenback traders, a sustained move to the downside will most likely see the dollar longs continue their assault and take on the single currency defenses around 1.2249, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.3477-1.1869 USD rally. A move toward the 1.2250 also should be a decisive for the greenback bulls as it would signal a continuation to the downside due to the break below the trendline that dominated the price action since middle of July. A break of the initial euro defenses will most likely see the greenback follow-through with the momentum and take on the 1.2126, a level protected by the August 19 daily low. Indicators continue to favor euro with momentum indicator and MACD both above the zero line, while Stochastic and RSI both tread below overbought thus adding to possibility of a pullback.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs went on a full out assault and succeed in pushing the greenback longs toward the 109.00 figure, only to walk into a trap set by the dollar bulls. As greenback longs sprang the trap on the unsuspecting yen longs and pushed the pair toward the psychologically important 110.00 handle, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head toward 110.98, a 50-day SMA, with further collapse of yen defenses seeing the dollar bulls taking over the 23.6 Fib of the 104.18-113.74 USD rally at 111.48. A sustained momentum of the greenback advance will most likely see the fall of 112.62, a yen defensive position established by the August 8 daily spike high and a gateway to the 2005 high at 113.68. Indicators support the yen longs with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while both oscillators remain neutral thus giving dollar bulls additional room to maneuver.

...more...

[54anickel]

9. Another "comical" headline - did Rummy write that one?

Dollar Advance Crushes Majors Defenses

[UpInArms]

14. My Eyes! Ouch!

that should have come with a "graphics warning"

:spray:

[AnneD]

65. Every superhero...

Needs a bumbling side kick.

[54anickel]

68. *SNARF* Good one AnneD...n/t

[54anickel]

13. Gold Prices May Reach 17-Year High on Jewelry Demand

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=avF5FqCUsAXo&refer=latin_america

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise to a 17-year high on increased demand from jewelry makers, the biggest users of the precious metal, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Twenty-four of 35 traders, investors and analysts surveyed Sept. 8 and Sept. 9 urged investors to buy gold, which rose 1 percent last week to $453 an ounce in New York and up 13 percent from a year ago. A rally above $458.70 would be the highest price since June 1988. Six respondents said gold will fall, and five forecast little change.

snip>

Gold futures for December delivery rose $4.50 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange last week, a gain anticipated by the majority of analysts surveyed Sept. 1 and Sept. 2. Bloomberg's survey has correctly forecast gold's direction in 40 of 72 weeks, or 56 percent of the time. A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price by a specific date.

snip>

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York gold futures by 5 percent in the week ended Sept. 6, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Sept. 9. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 115,252 contracts, up from 109,833 a week earlier.


more...

[UpInArms]

23. Gold futures ease, but hold above $451 in morning trade

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38607.4116168981-841947938&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold is down $1.10 at $451.90 an ounce in New York after climbing nearly $18 in seven consecutive sessions. "The markets find themselves at a crossroads once again," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities, adding that while is "longer-term bullish on the metals," he says they have "reached extreme overbought levels."

[UpInArms]

24. Gold looks to 17-year high above $456

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=fundsNews2&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050912:MTFH56151_2005-09-12_12-43-26_SP212359:1

LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Gold was within dollars of its highest price in 17 years in Europe on Monday as political factors boosted the yen and knocked the euro, pushing investors into the safe haven asset.

Bullion rose to its highest so far this year at $451.50 an ounce in Asia overnight.

An election victory by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi pushed up the yen against the dollar and boosted the interest of Japanese investors in dollar-priced bullion, dealers said.

<snip>

Anything above that would take gold to its highest since June 1988.

<snip>

Uncertainty over the outlook for the dollar and U.S. interest rates after Hurricane Katrina had also helped the latest rally.

"If they really come out and say they are not going to raise interest rates, we are going to see gold break $456," a Singapore trader said.

...more...

hmmmm....

It looks like that "jewelry demand" is in Asia.

[54anickel]

28. Yes, interesting that it's "jewelry demand". Yet at the end of that first

article I posted was the interesting tidbit of hedge funds and the stats on the longs. It feels much like last year when the gold price was threatening to reveal inflationary pressures. The Fed and CBs are once again pressured to surpress the price of gold. Can they pull it off again with everything else on their plate these days? Inquiring minds and all. B-)

[UpInArms]

52. Gold futures turn higher in afternoon dealings

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38607.5447470486-841961396&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold is up 50 cents at $453.50 an ounce in New York, reversing from earlier decline to a low of $451.20. Price found support despite a stronger U.S. dollar as traders gauged investment demand for the metal following a seven-session climb. December silver is up 1.5 cents at $7.08 an ounce and December copper is at $1.643 a pound, up 3.9 cents.

[UpInArms]

56. Gold futures extend rally, up $18 in eight sessions

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF1F07E03%2DABD5%2D4E49%2DAB4E%2D30E83C96830B%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures posted only minor gains Monday, but that was enough to extend their rally from last week and log a gain of over $18 an ounce in eight sessions.

Prices found support despite a stronger U.S. dollar as traders bet on upbeat prospects for investment demand.

"The bias is up" for the gold market, with the market "getting some support from the idea that the U.S. Fed might hold off on the next rate hike," said Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com in daily commentary.

"Apparently, seeing the Fed take a pass on rates will increase the odds that inflation is allowed to entrench itself," she said.

Still, the $455 level is still a "close-in resistance point" and traders shouldn't be surprised to see December gold fall back to $450 before making another pulse toward the March high of $458.50, she said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. Office Depot to close 27 stores

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-12T124226Z_01_EIC245672_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-RETAIL-OFFICEDEPOT-DC.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 - Office Depot Inc. (ODP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it would close 16 underperforming stores in North America, a move that will cost it $30.1 million, and also plans some international closures in a consolidation plan.

The office supplies retailer will also consolidate its Office Depot and Viking catalogs into one Office Depot catalog.

Office Depot said it would also close 11 retail stores and one warehouse in its international division. It will also relocate one international warehouse, consolidate some call center facilities and end a contract business in one country. Office Depot forecast total costs from its international actions of about $32.8 million.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Former Marsh execs face indictment: WSJ

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-12T054107Z_01_HO220465_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-FINANCIAL-MARSH-WSJ-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - More than six former Marsh Inc. executives have been told by New York state authorities they will be indicted on criminal fraud charges as soon as this week if they do not plead guilty to lesser charges within days, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

Citing two people close to the situation, the newspaper said authorities hope to wrap up last-minute negotiations and unseal what could be several indictments as soon as Thursday.

Marsh Inc., the insurance-brokerage unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos (MMC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), was the focus of a fraud probe last year by New York state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who accused Marsh Inc. brokers of cheating clients by steering business to insurers who paid Marsh large commissions.

A spokesman for Spitzer declined to comment on the Journal's report.

Earlier this year, Marsh & McLennan signed an $850 million settlement with New York authorities without admitting or denying wrongdoing. As part of that settlement, the firm drafted an apology to its clients for the "shameful" conduct of some employees who "unlawfully deceived their customers."

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. Marsh, paying $850 mln in probe, may owe more

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T162904Z_01_N12489214_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-MARSH-PROBES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Marsh & McLennan Cos. (MMC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the insurance broker that agreed to pay $850 million to settle a bid-rigging probe, on Monday said investigators may seek additional money or remedies from the company, and that one regulator may file a civil lawsuit as soon as Wednesday.

The New York-based company said numerous state attorneys general and insurance commissioners are still examining the company and some may seek additional monetary or other remedies.

Marsh also said one state attorney general, whom it did not identify, told the company that it intends to file a civil claim as soon as Wednesday if a resolution is not reached.

The company said it is cooperating with all inquiries. It did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

Marsh in January agreed to pay $850 million to settle a lawsuit by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer accusing it of rigging bids, fixing prices and steering business to insurers, such as American International Group Inc. (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), that paid fees which clients didn't know about.

<snip>

On Monday, the Wall Street Journal said New York authorities told more than six former executives of Marsh Inc., the company's insurance brokerage unit, they will be indicted for fraud this week if they do not plead guilty to lesser charges.

...more...

The criminal Greenberg family strikes again.

[UpInArms]

57. Marsh & McLennan may face new bid-rigging lawsuit

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T172526Z_01_N12489214_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-MARSH-PROBES-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Marsh & McLennan Cos. (MMC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the insurance broker that agreed to pay $850 million to settle big-rigging accusations by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, on Monday said another attorney general may sue if the company does not resolve related claims.

In a regulatory filing, Marsh said the other regulator, whom it did not identify, intends to file a civil claim as soon as Wednesday if a resolution is not reached.

<snip>

The company disclosed the possible lawsuit at about the same time it announced plans to sell $1 billion of senior notes to refinance bank debt. The three-year floating-rate, five-year fixed-rate and 10-year fixed-rate notes were rated "BBB," the second lowest investment grade, by Standard & Poor's.

Marsh, the world's largest insurance broker, in January agreed to pay $850 million to settle a lawsuit by Spitzer accusing it of rigging bids, fixing prices and steering business to insurers, such as American International Group Inc. (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), that paid fees which clients didn't know about.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Keane gets $54M pact related to Nat'l Weather Service system

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38607.3665348843-841943827&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Keane Inc. (KEA) said Monday that it's received a partial contract worth roughly $54 million over 10 years to help with an upgrade of the National Weather Service's advanced weather interactive processing system. The whole contract was awarded to Raytheon Co. (RTN) . Keane will provide information technology, application outsourcing and testing services. Keane shares closed Friday at $11.47, up a nickel.

[UpInArms]

8. Electrolux: Waves, dreams, nightmares

http://www.thedailynews.cc/articles/2005/09/10/opinions/editorials/edit.txt

excerpt:

On Sept. 2, 829 employees left work at Electrolux's Greenville plant for the final time. It was the first round of layoffs at the world's largest refrigerator factory. Sometime during the first quarter of next year, the plant at 635 W. Charles St. will be closed for good and another 1,900 employees will be out of work.

Wave after wave after wave -- three of them, more than 2,700 workers in all.

A week earlier, Whirlpool formalized a deal to purchase Maytag for $1.7 billion in cash and stock. The deal still must be approved by federal antitrust regulators.

Right now Whirlpool is America's largest appliance manufacturer and Maytag is No. 3. Combined, analysts estimate they would control nearly half the country's market in major appliances.

<snip>

What would've happened differently if Whirlpool had bought Electrolux's refrigerator holdings? Whirlpool is based in Benton Harbor and Maytag in Newton, Iowa -- nice Midwestern communities not far from Greenville and a healthy 4,000 miles removed from Sweden.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Europe's reinsurers look again at Katrina estimates

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-09-12T122717Z_01_EIC244813_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-FINANCIAL-INSURERS-KATRINA-DC.XML&archived=False

MONTE CARLO/ZURICH (Reuters) - European reinsurers have been forced to look anew at estimates of their exposure to Hurricane Katrina and the damage it may wreak on their profits as the full extent of the storm damage becomes clearer.

Swiss Re (RUKN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday more than doubled its expected bill from the disaster, to $1.2 billion, and said it will miss its target of 10-percent growth in earnings per share this year.

Rivals Munich Re (MUVGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) and Hannover Re (HNRGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) warned their claims bills may rise also, potentially cutting their profits further, as estimates of the total insured losses from what is predicted to be the costliest insured catastrophe in history keep rising.

Munich Re, the world's number-one reinsurer, said on Sunday that that its own estimate of Katrina claims of around 400 million euros is probably too low.

Hannover Re said it may have to lower its earnings forecast further if its share of claims from Katrina, which it currently estimates at 250 million euros before tax, increases, though it said it saw no need to do so now.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Montpelier sees Katrina losses up to $675 million

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T131149Z_01_N12496708_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-MONTPELIERRE-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Montpelier Re Holdings (MRH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday it estimates the preliminary impact of losses related to Hurricane Katrina and flooding in New Orleans will be in the range of $450 million to $675 million.

The estimates are based on industry insured-loss estimates, including offshore energy losses, in the range of $30 billion to $40 billion, Montpelier said. So far the company has received few preliminary loss indications from its clients.

"This is a significant net loss for us," Anthony Taylor, chairman, president and chief executive of Montpelier said, adding that the company's capitalization remained strong.

Standard & Poor's on Sept. 9 said it may cut the company's A-minus rating.

Montpelier also said it expects upward price movements for the rest of the year and increased underwriting opportunities.

On Friday, Risk Management Solutions raised its estimate of total damages caused by Hurricane Katrina to $125 billion and said it expects insured losses of $40 billion to $60 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Swiss Re More Than Doubles Katrina Claims Estimate

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=augDigAzM4mM&refer=europe

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Swiss Reinsurance Co., the world's second-largest reinsurer, more than doubled its estimate for claims from Hurricane Katrina to $1.2 billion and said it will probably miss a full-year earnings forecast.

A target of 10 percent growth in earnings per share ``will likely not be met for 2005,'' the Zurich-based company said in an e- mailed statement today. Swiss Re previously estimated claims from Katrina at $500 million. Reinsurers take on a portion of the risks insurers assume for clients, in exchange for premium payments.

``The companies all came out too early with their initial estimates,'' said analyst Andreas Frick at Bank Sarasin & Cie., speaking by telephone from his Zurich office. ``The prices in the industry will rise significantly, though, so longer-term it is not so negative.''

Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, said yesterday that premium rates will rise after Hurricane Katrina hit the U.S. Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, damaging oil rigs, flooding New Orleans and killing hundreds. Insured losses from the storm may reach $60 billion, according to Risk Management Solutions Inc.

At that level, Katrina's claims would exceed those of Hurricane Andrew, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the Northridge, California, earthquake combined.

...more...

The article goes on to say: Rates ``will go up everywhere''

[UpInArms]

40. Munich Re, Swiss Re could increase rates

http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050912/BUSINESS/109120131

Munich Re and Swiss Reinsurance Co., the world’s largest reinsurers, may lead an increase in premium rates for catastrophe coverage after Hurricane Katrina caused an estimated $35 billion in insured losses.

Reinsurers, which help insurers shoulder risks in exchange for premium payments, may seek to push up rates when they meet with clients such as Allianz AG in Monte Carlo starting September 11 to begin negotiating 2006 contracts. They’ll convene again in the German town of Baden-Baden in October to complete agreements.After Katrina, “reinsurers in Monte Carlo are in a much better position to argue for improvements in premiums,” said Andreas Schaefer, an analyst at WestLB Equity Markets in Frankfurt.

The shares of Munich Re and Swiss Re have gained since Hurricane Katrina stuck the US Gulf Coast on August 29, partly on speculation the losses will enable reinsurers to bolster prices. Katrina dislodged offshore oil rigs, flattened homes, flooded New Orleans, left hundreds dead and brought commerce on the US Gulf Coast to a standstill.

The storm may be the costliest ever, according to estimates from analysts including Risk Management Solutions. UBS AG analysts, in a note to investors on Wednesday, raised Swiss Re shares to `buy’ from `neutral,’ and said Katrina’s losses are “likely to slow down or reverse downward pricing in the majority of reinsurance lines.” UBS on Friday raised its price forecast for Munich Re shares to 100 euros ($124) from 95 euros.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. Aon: Katrina likely largest loss for property reinsurance

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38607.5591238657-841962770&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Aon Corp. (AOC) said Monday that Hurricane Katrina will most likely be the largest property loss ever recorded in the global property reinsurance market. Every significant line of property insurance will incur a hurricane-related loss; from direct physical damage to time element and contingent time element loss where the direct physical damage may be difficult to ascertain, the company said. Chicago-based Aon said it also expects Katrina to have an impact during upcoming renewal negotiations.

[loudsue]

58. If the REPUBLICANS, that the insurance companies SUPPORT

had funded the Corps of Engineers' projects, those insurance companies wouldn't be losing so damned much money.

But do they get the connection???? Nooooooo!

:kick:

[54anickel]

69. Good point. Then again, you can't really expect them to be able to

connect the dots in that manner. Too busy looking out for their own self interests. Like most big corps, they forget about the greater society at large beyond being consumers of their products.

[54anickel]

11. The Shoestring Economy - (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050909-fri.html#anchor0

Never in modern history has the world’s leading economic power tried to do so much with so little. A saving-short US economy has long pushed the envelope in drawing on foreign capital to subsidize excess consumption. But now Washington is upping the ante as it opens the fiscal spigot to cope with post-Katrina reconstruction at the same time it is funding the ongoing war in Iraq. Could this be a tipping point for America’s shoestring economy?

The saving-investment identity, one of the cornerstones of macro analysis, frames the economics of this debate. For any economy, saving is emblematic of the willingness to defer current consumption in order to invest in the future. America’s problem is that it no longer saves. Its net national saving rate -- the combined saving of individuals, businesses, and the government sector (all adjusted for depreciation) -- has fallen to a record low of only 1.5% of GNP since early 2002. By contrast, this same national saving rate averaged 7.5% over the 40-year period, 1960 to 2000. Unwilling to cut back on investment, a saving-short US economy has become increasingly dependent on surplus foreign saving in order to grow. That means it has had to run massive external deficits in order to import this foreign capital. A current account deficit that hit a record 6.4% of US GDP in early 2005, and that will easily pierce the 7% threshold in the months ahead, underscores how far the US has had to stretch offshore in order to make ends meet. This is the essence of the shoestring economy -- a United States that is lacking the saving cushion needed to fund future growth and ward off the impacts of more immediate shocks.

Unfortunately, that noose is about to get a good deal tighter. Asset-dependent consumers were running a negative personal saving rate to the tune of -0.6% of disposable personal income in July 2005. Not since the Great Depression of the early 1930s have US households been stretched that far. Yet, today, few seem worried about this development. Conventional wisdom has it that “rational” consumers have uncovered new and permanent sources of saving in the form of rapid asset appreciation -- first equities and now homes. However, just as a post-equity bubble shakeout challenged that complacency five years ago, there is good reason to fear a similar outcome when the housing bubble bursts. Meanwhile, the energy shock of 2005 is likely to take the personal saving rate even further into negative territory as US households defend their lifestyles in the face of rising expenses for transportation, electricity, and heating. The American consumer is on the leading edge of the shoestring economy.

The government sector is in a similar position. While a cyclical rebound in the economy has led to a temporary improvement in the federal budget position, the combination of Katrina-related assistance and energy-driven impacts on economic growth -- to say nothing of the ongoing expenses of US occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan -- point to a renewed widening of government budget deficits. So far, the Bush Administration has hit Congress with $62 billion in supplemental spending requests in the immediate aftermath of Katrina. The risk is that these disaster-relief appropriations are only a down-payment on the final tab, which eventually will span the gamut -- from infrastructure repair and reconstruction of housing and commercial areas to massive environmental clean-up efforts. In the politically-charged post-Katrina environment, any semblance of fiscal discipline has vanished into thin air. Next year’s federal budget deficit is currently projected at -2.4% of GDP; a conservative estimate of a post-Katrina budget could easily push that figure into the -3.25% to -3.5% range -- virtually identical to peak cyclical shortfalls hit in 2003-04. And, of course, additional costs can also be expected to fall on state and local governments. That means that the overall government sector, which was running a negative net saving rate to the tune of -2.1% of GNP as of 2Q05, is about to become an ever-greater drag on national saving. That will put the shoestring economy under even greater pressure.

more...

[CabalPowered]

34. Well at least someone is saying it..

Roach's conclusion..

"The macro conclusions are inescapable: A saving-short US economy that runs a massive current account deficit is effectively living beyond its means. It not only relies on foreign saving to fund domestic growth, but it also lacks the capacity to invest in public goods that may be needed to safeguard its future. Lacking in domestic saving, the shoestring economy is also biased toward chronic under-investment in infrastructure -- leaving itself vulnerable to “breakage.” Whether that breakage comes from within (i.e., Katrina) or from the outside (i.e., terrorism), the shoestring economy runs the risk of being unprepared to ward off such blows in a fragile and dangerous world. An energy shock exacerbates the imbalances that produce such vulnerability. This draws into serious question the resilience that financial markets now seem to be banking on."

Reading Katrina coverage in Business Week and WSJ last week, you'd think that the effects of Katrina were a short-term blip on the map. From BW:

"Echoing Santomero, most economists believe the U.S. economy is resilient enough to avoid the wost and keep growing at a reasonable clip in spite of Hurricane Katrina's havoc."

All the indicators are pointing in the wrong direction and Katrina is most certainly more than blip on the map. So the question is, how long until the unraveling?

[UpInArms]

12. Squal-Mart moving on to destroy small town Mexico

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-09-09T173855Z_01_DIT963441_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-RETAIL-MEXICO-WALMEX-DC.XML&archived=False

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Wal-Mart is stepping up its expansion strategy in Mexico to focus on smaller towns in a move that could help it gobble up more of the fragmented retail market, despite new offensives by competitors.

This week the huge retailer, known as Walmex (WALMEXV.MX: Quote, Profile, Research) in Mexico, said it boosted its expansion program to open 90 new stores this year, 20 more than first planned, an increase of 14 percent in sales floor space, much of it outside major cities.

The additional 20 stores were already included in the company's 2005 capital expenditures program of 8.2 billion pesos, or about $764 million, UBS said on Friday.

"They had not disclosed this to the market earlier because the stores were part of a test involving the launch of smaller Bodegas and Supercenters to serve smaller cities," UBS said in a report after consulting with company executives.

<snip>

"We started the company in urban areas in Mexico ... and we are moving now to smaller and rural areas," he said. "We are really happy with the returns in these small towns."

The move may help Wal-Mart head off major rivals, while also gaining ground in a large sector still dominated by mom- and-pop stores and street vendors.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Countrywide: Katrina losses to top $70M

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEDAF1F4E%2D0217%2D4CBD%2D8EA6%2D6926846B19A4%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Countrywide Financial Corp. on Monday said its loan portfolio jumped 33% to top $1 trillion in August, while the lender also put out an initial loss estimate for Hurriane Katrina of a least $70 million.

<snip>

As for Katrina, the financial impact "will not be insignificant," said Stan Kurland, Countrywide's president and chief operating officer.

By comparison, the company's 2004 hurricane losses totaled about $70 million, and Kurland said expectations are that the financial impact of Katrina will surpass that amount.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Merging refiners good for investors, not for consumers

(I think I posted this last week, but it is definitely worth a read)

http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2005/09/12/business/doc4321f09fd5f37986634931.txt

WASHINGTON — As supply shortages sent the price of a gallon of gasoline as high as $6 in some markets, federal officials charged with protecting consumers quietly approved yet another oil industry merger, this one creating the nation’s largest oil refiner.

Because of the rush of Hurricane Katrina news, the merger earned hardly a mention in the general press. And yet by giving its blessing to Valero’s $8 billion purchase of Premcor, the Federal Trade Commission not only reinforced its reputation as a patsy for the energy industry but demonstrated a stunning lack of political sensitivity.

Although the FTC and its staff never seem to make the link between industry consolidation, rising energy prices and record profits, Wall Street investors surely can. Over the past year, shares in Valero are up 226 percent, which, as the Financial Times pointed out, makes Google (at only 186 percent) look like a laggard.

Listen to what Valero’s chief executive, Bill Greehey, had to say in announcing that the deal had closed: “We are in a new era for refining where I believe you will continue to see higher highs and higher lows for both product margins and sour crude discounts. And now, with 18 refineries, no one is better positioned to benefit from this than Valero.”

Translation: This deal will do nothing for consumers, but it’s a home run for investors.

...more...

[54anickel]

30. Oil slips below $64, demand growth slows

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-12T112722Z_01_HO223063_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-OIL-DC.XML&archived=False

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices dipped below $64 a barrel on Monday, capped by signs of slowing global demand growth but supported by the struggle to restart U.S. oilfields and refineries after Hurricane Katrina.

U.S. crude was off 25 cents at $63.83 a barrel by 1125 GMT after shedding 41 cents on Friday when prices fell for the fourth time in five sessions. Crude is almost $7 below the record high of $70.85 struck on August 30.

snip>

"The market can't be too bearish as they will also focus on refining capacity constraints in the Gulf of Mexico," said Sano Keiichi, a manager with Sumitomo Corp. in Tokyo.

snip>

SLOWING DEMAND GROWTH

But concerns over the slow pace of oil recovery are countered by forecasts that Katrina's destruction would shave 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points off U.S. economic growth.

snip>

The impact of Katrina is expected to cut oil demand by 200,000 bpd this month, which would help stave off a gasoline crunch, the IEA said on Friday.

The IEA revised downwards its forecast for world oil demand growth this year by 250,000 bpd to 1.35 million bpd, as soaring oil prices were expected to undermine consumption.

more...

Sounds like a dog chasing it's tail, doesn't it? Demand down on Katrina's hit to GDP, yet somehow prices will still soar, which will also cut demand. Yet prices are expected to soar because, uh, err, hmmmm. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

39. Average pump price hits record $3.04 a gallon

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9302593/

LOS ANGELES - Damage to Gulf Coast refineries and pipelines by Hurricane Katrina pushed retail gas prices to historic highs in the past two weeks, with self-serve regular averaging more than $3 a gallon for the first time ever, according to a nationwide survey released Sunday.

The weighted average price for all three grades surged more than 38 cents to nearly $3.04 a gallon between Aug. 26 and Sept. 9, said Trilby Lundberg, who publishes the semimonthly Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations around the country.

Self-serve regular averaged $3.01 a gallon nationwide, according to the survey. Midgrade was pegged at about $3.11, while premium-grade was at nearly $3.21.

<snip>

Adjusted for inflation, the nation’s previous high weighted average for all three grades was $1.38 a gallon in March 1981. That would be $3.03 in current dollars.

Lundberg said prices could drop sharply in the coming weeks by 10 cents or more as gasoline imports flow in and demand eases with the traditional September drop-off, fewer drivers in storm-stricken areas and other consumers limiting trips to the pump.

...more...

:wow: 10 cents or more! Let's party! :party: :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

41. Current Crude Oil Price - $63 bbl

11:37am 09/12/05 OCT CRUDE FALLS TO A 3-WEEK LOW IN LATE MORNING DEALINGS

11:37am 09/12/05 OCT CRUDE DOWN $1.08, OR 1.7%, TO $63/BRL AFTER $62.80 LOW

11:37am 09/12/05 OCT NATGAS AT 2-WK LOW, DOWN 3.3% AT $10.89/MLN BTUS

11:37am 09/12/05 OCT UNLEADED GAS AT 2-WK LOW, DOWN 3.2% AT $1.8975/GAL

[UpInArms]

49. Oil below $63 as high prices crimp demand

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=uri:2005-09-12T153918Z_01_HO223063_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-OIL-DC.XML

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices slumped below $63 a barrel on Monday as signs of a slowdown in global petroleum demand growth countered the struggle to restart U.S. oil facilities after Hurricane Katrina.

U.S. crude <CLc1> was off $1.23 at $62.85 a barrel. Crude is now $8 below the record high of $70.85 struck on August 30. London Brent crude <LCOc1> slipped $1.24 to $61.60.

Forecasts are that Katrina's destruction could shave 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points off U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter, further undermining fuel demand just as high prices hit consumption.

"For the first time, traders have to worry about demand," said Gary Ross, chief executive of U.S. energy consultancy PIRA Energy.

"There's no doubt there is evidence of demand destruction emerging everywhere. U.S. gasoline data over the next few weeks will show the effect of high oil prices on demand."

...more...

[UpInArms]

62. Crude closes at $63.33 bbl

3:04pm 09/12/05 OCT UNLEADED GAS ENDS AT 2-WK LOW OF $1.8737/GAL, DOWN 4.4%

3:02pm 09/12/05 OCT CRUDE ENDS AT 5-WK LOW OF $63.33/BRL, DOWN 75C ,OR 1.2%

[RawMaterials]

17. ? for all

If china now owns 57% of the new Disney world that just opened up. what if the US owned 55% of every major company in the US, would we have a national debt?

Any ideal were to find out this info, or just maybe some random thoughts on the question.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

18. Oracle to buy rival Siebel in $5.85 bln deal

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T122710Z_01_N12468351_RTRIDST_0_TECH-SIEBEL-UPDATE1.XML

PHILADELPHIA, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Oracle Corp. (ORCL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it will buy rival software company Siebel Systems Inc. (SEBL.O: Quote, Profile, Research), which has been long-mentioned as a possible takeover target, for $10.66 a share in a deal that valued Siebel at $5.85 billion.

Oracle, which will become the world's biggest customer relationship management software maker if the deal goes through, said the agreement was worth $3.61 billion after subtracting Siebel's $2.24 billion in cash.

The price per share represents a 16.8 pct premium to Siebel's closing share price of $9.13 on Friday.

Siebel gained prominence in the late 1990s as a top maker of software that helps companies better understand and manage their relationships with customers, one of the market's fastest-growing areas.

But as Siebel's share of that market gets chipped away by stiff competition, analysts have increasingly considered it a prime takeover prize for a rival like Oracle.

...more...

[UpInArms]

59. Moody's may downgrade Oracle long-term ratings

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38607.6149488889-841968298&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service on Monday placed the long-term ratings of Oracle Corp. (ORCL) on review for possible downgrade following its announcement that it plans to acquire Siebel Systems Inc. (SEBL) for $5.85 billion. The ratings outlook for Oracle had been negative. Moody's said the review will focus on the financial impact of the acquisition as well as the longer term operating and market implications of the purchase. The review will also consider Oracle's consolidation strategy and market position and its tolerance for using its financial resources to acquire companies in key industry vertical markets and enterprise applications, the agency said.

Ah, the joys of "vertical" intergration. :puke:

[UpInArms]

20. pre-opening blather

09:15 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0.

08:59 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: -0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Cash market still poised for a flat start, as futures trade continues to hover right around fair value... Meanwhile, the Energy sector could garner some early attention, as an extended decline in the price of crude (-$0.58 at 63.50/bbl), coupled with analyst downgrades on Halliburton (HAL) and Schlumberger (SLB), may cause traders to lock in some of the 38% year-to-date gain in the increasingly influential Energy sector, continuously the largest contributor to the S&P 500's overall growth

08:30 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures trading remains steady and continues to point towards a flattish open for the cash market... Aside from consolidation efforts in the wake of last week's rally, weakness in the Treasury market may be impeding a higher open for stocks. Despite a lack of economic data this morning, the 10-year is off 6 ticks to yield 4.14% ahead of two key reports later this week (i.e. PPI and CPI) that will provide the latest reads on inflation.

08:00 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures indications versus fair value suggesting a lackluster open as investors weigh new M&A activity against profit-taking opportunities following recent broad-based market gains. Oracle (ORCL) has agreed to buy Siebel Systems (SEBL) for about $5.85 bln, Wachovia (WB) has agreed to acquire Westcorp (WES) and WFS Financial (WFSI) for $3.91 bln and eBay (EBAY) has confirmed its acquisition of Skype for $2.6 bln. However, a two-week rally that has lifted the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq 2.7%, 3.0% and 2.5% has prompted some early consolidation efforts

[UpInArms]

21. 9:40 EST nobody's happy

Dow 10,668.93 -9.63 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,175.26 -0.25 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,240.14 -1.34 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.159 +0.36 (+0.87%)

NYSE Volume 97,766,000
Nasdaq Volume 155,449,000

[54anickel]

25. The 10:00 happy meds were dispensed, but the dosage was too low

10:08

Dow 10,681.19 +2.63 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,180.05 +4.54 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,241.07 -0.41 (-0.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.164% +0.04
30-yr Bond 4.438% +0.04
NYSE Volume 284,890,000
Nasdaq Volume 375,520,000

No blather - still have Saturday yada up. What's with that?

[UpInArms]

22. Inflation jitters dent Treasury market

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B607EABE3%2DFA96%2D4DD2%2DA108%2D0F75032A4B2F%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices declined and yields crept higher on Monday, to start a week that will bring two key reports on inflation -- and potentially worrisome readings at that.

A packed data week will also include statistics on retail sales and consumer sentiment that will be the first in capturing how Americans reacted to Hurricane Katrina.

Ahead of those reports due later in the week, the benchmark 10-year note was down 1/4, or $2.50 per each $1,000 in securities at face value, to 100 25/32 Monday morning.

The drop in price pushed its yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) , a reference for mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, to 4.15% from 4.11% at Friday's close.

<snip>

The inflation watch has picked up momentum following comments last week from Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow. Moskow, a voter on the Fed's rotational interest-rate panel this year, said that despite the uncertainty brought by Katrina, inflation continues to lap at the upper end of the Fed's comfort zone.

Inflation erodes the value of fixed investments, such as bonds. But inflation had been relatively well contained throughout the current economic expansion, allowing longer-term yields to be capped despite the Federal Reserve's 10 short-term rate increases since June 2004.

<snip>

Crude oil futures prices scaled a record at $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30. Prices have since fallen back to around $65. Retail gasoline prices were up 17% last week from the week before and stand some 60% above year-ago levels with a $3.11 per gallon average.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. US Treasuries fall as greater odds seen of Fed hike

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T142133Z_01_N12336459_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Monday as the bond market perceived the increasing likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next week despite Hurricane Katrina's economic damage.

Reflecting market sentiment, the federal funds rate future for October < FFV5> priced in around an 84 percent chance of a rate increase at the Fed's Sept. 20 policy meeting, compared with a 78 percent chance at the end of trading Friday.

Traders said this mirrored sentiment that yields had fallen too far in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina when many in the market thought the Fed next week would suspend its year-long policy of steadily raising rates to curb inflation.

<snip>

"The front-end is getting wacked," said one trader at a Wall Street primary dealer, who said many were viewing 4.14 percent as a near-term upside target for the two-year note.

<snip>

"This week ... brings the first survey evidence on how consumers and companies view both the current economic situation and the outlook in the wake of the hurricane," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.

"We are pretty sure about the downward direction of the numbers, but the magnitude of the likely declines is anybody's guess," Shepherdson added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. US PPI seen up 0.8 pct in Aug, core up 0.1 pct

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-09-12T142847Z_01_N10257464_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PPI-POLL.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. producer price data are expected to show prices increased 0.8 percent last month propelled by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, a Reuters survey of economists shows.

According to the median forecast of the economists polled, producer prices are forecast to have risen 0.8 percent in August after a 1.0 percent rise in July.

Excluding food and energy, prices were expected to have risen a modest 0.1 percent in August following a 0.4 percent increase the prior month.

Economists noted that the survey for PPI was taken before Hurricane Katrina devastated parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast at the end of August, meaning that the hurricane's effects on energy and other prices won't show up in the PPI data until the September report is released a month from now.

<snip>

"The PPI survey was conducted about two weeks before Katrina made landfall. All of the impact of the hurricane on energy and other commodity prices will likely show up in next month's report.

...more...

Note to market: Disregard all reports :eyes:

[54anickel]

48. Inflation raising its ugly head

Check out the tables at the article - they don't copy over well

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=46468

Budget deficits to the left of us, money growth to the right of us, and an oil price shock behind us, will leave only inflation in front of us!

Information featured in a The New York Times article last month says it all. These are not wimpy numbers!

Consumer Price Inflation over the last six months
United States, Euro Countries and Britain

United States 5.0 %

Euro Countries 3.6%

Britain 3.1%

(Today it takes $237.14 to buy what $100 could buy in 1980)

Other countries are also showing what can be done when budget deficits and the money supply are cranked up and currencies are allowed to fall. A prime example of this is Venezuela and Russia. Even with all their wealth from oil, they suffer from very high consumer price inflation:

Consumer Price Inflation
Venezuela and Russia

Venezuela 15.0 %

Russia 12.5%


snip>

World money growth is at its boiling point. China is printing money at an annual rate of 16 percent; Denmark is 15+ percent; Australia, Britain, and Canada are over 10 percent and broad money growth in Europe is 8%. While the broad measure of money growth in the United States is only 5 percent, growth of total credit is double digit!

snip>

A number of market analysts and “cheerleaders” for the stock market have called for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates because Katrina may cause the economy to slow. However, when you actually take a look at the budget deficits and money and credit growth (above), if the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates, the dollar could crash causing inflation to run at well over 5 percent a year.

more...

[UpInArms]

64. Treasuries reel as Katrina's sway on Fed reassessed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T194553Z_01_N12555324_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices retreated on Monday as investors worried a data-filled week could reinforce the need for further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Many of the figures will not yet reflect possible fallout from Hurricane Katrina, but analysts will comb through them nonetheless in an attempt to gauge whether a recent recalibration of monetary policy forecasts was appropriate.

After the hurricane, investors rushed to reprice interest rate futures on the expectation that the storm's economic impact would be so large that the Fed would need to stop raising interest rates.

But now that the dust had settled and central bank officials had a chance to chime in, strategists were beginning to see a near-term pause as less likely.

"It's been pretty clear from Fedspeak that they intend to hike in September, and that they will exhibit temporary flexibility if they see weakness," said David Ader, U.S. government bond strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

...more...

[54anickel]

27. Your New PC: Be Very Afraid

http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/050908/cc7a0326fe79e0ddd899d49fb07e1107.html

You see computer prices dropping. You see specs improving. You start thinking it's time to buy a new machine. But lost in the numbers and the endless lists of features is what hardly anybody can bear to discuss for fear of apoplexy: the worst "out-of-box" experience since Pandora's.

At least her box had Hope at the bottom; with PCs, you have to bring your own. Lately I stumbled into the greatest run of bad computer luck I can recall: Four desktop computers in a row revealed problems less than an hour out of the box. One Dell machine sounded interesting--until I discovered that the onboard surround-sound system wouldn't work and that Windows was positive that no sound capabilities actually existed on the machine.

Next, the Case of the Dead Mouse. When another Dell machine booted up, it displayed a video mode so inappropriate that Windows popped up a message recommending it be changed. Windows should have been able to do that on its own, but it didn't. And I couldn't, because the mouse wouldn't move the cursor, not even to the Start button to--yes--shut the machine down.

Eventually Dell diagnosed the two problem PCs. Restoring the sound involved correcting a misconfigured setting from a panel you can access only at startup--if you know the secret key to press. Restoring the mouse was a matter of replacing it with an old-style PS/2 model; for unexplained reasons the USB mouse that shipped with the computer wouldn't work with the old-style PS/2 keyboard that came in the same box.

more....

Ahhh, sweet revenge :evilgrin: At least I can take a little comfort in the fact that what I did in my past life did make a difference! My former employer dropped my department, which ensured compatibility and a great out of box experience (through rigorous testing, documentation, etc, etc) because "Dell wasn't bothering to do it anymore". We warned them, and they went belly up due to customer unsatisfaction.

[UpInArms]

32. Ford May Sell Hertz to Clayton, Carlyle for $15 Bln, People Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aP8.vwrB2YDM&refer=us

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co. may sell Hertz Corp., the largest U.S. car-rental company, to buyout investors including Clayton, Dubilier & Rice Inc. and Carlyle Group for about $15 billion to raise cash for its unprofitable North American auto business, people familiar with the matter said.

Clayton Dubilier of New York and Washington-based Carlyle, along with Merrill Lynch & Co.'s private-equity unit, have offered to pay $5 billion for Hertz and assume about $10 billion of debt, said the people, who declined to be identified. A deal may be announced as soon as today. It would be the largest leveraged buyout since Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. paid $31 billion for RJR Nabisco Inc. in 1989.

Ford, the No. 2 U.S. automaker, is selling Park Ridge, New Jersey-based Hertz to raise cash as it loses market share to rivals led by Toyota Motor Corp. Ford's North American business has been unprofitable for three of the past four quarters. Chief Executive Officer William Clay Ford Jr. has promised to increase earnings.

``They've decided it's a non-core business,'' Burnham Securities Inc. analyst David Healy said of Ford, which is based in Dearborn, Michigan. The sale would be ``a big boost'' for Ford's liquidity, he said.

...more...

[54anickel]

33. Katrina relief to worsen groaning US deficit

Oh boy, cantcha hear the spin already. The deficit was shrinking, the tax cuts were working, the Repug economic plan was a success until that little hurricane incident. Katrina will become the scapegoat for everything that was on it's way down the toilet to begin with. :puke:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050911/ts_afp/usweathereconomybudget_050911030137;_ylt=AqeUSNVqHX5Pqu64QmPTaUmmOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Its furious winds and rain are now spent, but Hurricane Katrina will long endure on the US government's balance sheet as economic growth is curbed and vast sums are spent on disaster relief.

snip>

It is a massive injection of money when compared with the 76 billion dollars agreed by Congress in May for US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

snip>

"Katrina has now become a great valve for Congress to spend gobs of dough, keep the economy alive and save their re-election prospects in November 2006," he said.

The US administration had been hoping to turn the tide on the deficit, after years of rising shortfalls created by huge war spending coupled with President George W. Bush's multi-billion-dollar tax cuts.

more...

[54anickel]

35. Laughing All the Way From the Bank (UIA, you may want to archive this one)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/11/business/11citi.html

ADORNING a conference room wall on the third floor of Citigroup's Manhattan headquarters is an enormous wooden plaque. It bears a likeness of the company's chairman, Sanford I. Weill, and lists every deal he engineered to create what is now the country's largest, most profitable and most influential financial institution.

The inscription beneath his image reads: "The Man Who Shattered Glass-Steagall." That is a reference to the Depression-era law that hemmed in the size and powers of America's banks for several decades, until the 1998 merger that formed Citigroup helped lead to its repeal, ushering in a new age of boundless, hazardous, high-octane finance and deal-making still struggling to sort itself out.

Down the hall from the conference room - and one floor removed from most of the senior executives who run the company - Mr. Weill, 72, maintains an office bedecked with photographs of family, presidents and foreign potentates; he will occupy this space at least until he retires next spring.

Recently, Mr. Weill pondered an early exit from Citigroup to start a private-equity fund, roiling the board and prompting yet another round of speculation about turmoil at the bank, which has been whipsawed by unrest since its creation seven years ago. But last week, in a rare on-the-record interview, he said he had no intention of leaving Citigroup early - or of pursuing deals that conflict with the bank's myriad businesses when he eventually does depart.

During a wide-ranging conversation he also reflected upon his accomplishments and setbacks - from his notorious falling-out with James Dimon, his former No. 2 who is now president of J. P. Morgan Chase, to his view of Citigroup's role in financial scandals like the WorldCom and Enron debacles. And what does Mr. Weill consider the most important factors in assessing his own storied career?

"That I had a real good value system and that I cared about people and teamwork and built the company that led and will continue to lead the change in progress in the financial services business on a global basis," he said. "We talked about building the best financial company in the United States. We nearly got to that point."

more...

[UpInArms]

36. Treasury Liquidity Problems Mounting? Fed adds permanent reserves by buyin

Fed adds permanent reserves by buying coupons

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T145002Z_01_NYG000037_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday that it was adding permanent reserves to the banking system by buying coupons.

The Fed said delivery is for Tuesday, Sept. 13 and the range of coupons of accepted is Nov. 15, 2007 to Oct. 15, 2008. There were three exclusions.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

Earlier, the Fed added temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate was 3.50 percent, the Fed's target for the rate, at the time of the operation.

[54anickel]

47. Again? Sheesh, they just did that last week. Buying coupons AND

issuing repos. There's a whole lot of liquidity flowing these days. How much more can the levee take?




Oldie, but goodie

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=37375

A long, long time ago…

I can still remember

How the dollar used to make me smile.

And I knew if I had my chance

I’d sell the currency of France

And, maybe, I’d be happy for awhile.



But all our spending made me shiver

With every T-bill we’d deliver.

Bad news on the doorstep;

I couldn’t take one more step.



I can’t remember if I cried

When I heard our politicians lied

But something touched me deep inside

The day the dollar died.



So bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye

Sold my Chevy at the levee

‘cause my pension ran dry.

Them good old boys were drinkin’ sake to try

Singin’ this’ll be the day that it died

This’ll be the day that it died.

more...

[UpInArms]

37. Check-Kiting Continues: US Treasury to sell $8 bln 4-week bills Tuesday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T150138Z_01_WBT003810_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it will sell $8 billion of four-week bills on Tuesday, Sept. 13.

The bills will be issued on Sept. 15.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund about $16 billion of publicly held bills maturing on Sept. 15 and to pay down about $8 billion of debt.

The four-week bills announced on Tuesday mature Oct. 13. Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $2.80 billion.

Noncompetitive bids must be received 12:00 noon. EDT (1600 GMT) and competitive bids by 1:00 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).

The CUSIP for the four-week bills is 912795VV0.

[UpInArms]

38. Shell wins privatization auction of Turkish refiner Tupras

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA60607ED%2D20D5%2D4F41%2D8311%2D11A8C2579E12%7D

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- A consortium including Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) Monday fended off eight other bidders in a hotly contested privatization auction for control of Tupras (TUPRS.IS), Turkey's 500,000-barrel-a-day refiner Monday, the Ihlas News Agency reported.

Shell's winning bid of $4.14 billion defied even the most optimistic expectations which, ahead of the auction, had reckoned on a final price-tag closer to $3 billion.

Shell faced its sternest competition from a joint venture comprising state-owned Indian Oil Corp. (530965.BY) and Turkey's Calik Enerji Sanayii, as well as OYAK, an industrial conglomerate representing a Turkish army officers' pension fund.

...short blurb...

[UpInArms]

42. Gutting the Government

What happens when an administration destroys the function of the various offices? Paul Krugman gives us a glimpse

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/12/opinion/12krugman.html

excerpt:

You could say that these are all cases in which the Bush administration hasn't worried about degrading the quality of a government agency because it doesn't really believe in the agency's mission. But you can't say that about my other two examples.

Even a conservative government needs an effective Treasury Department. Yet Treasury, which had high prestige and morale during the Clinton years, has fallen from grace.

The public symbol of that fall is the fact that John Snow, who was obviously picked for his loyalty rather than his qualifications, is still Treasury secretary. Less obvious to the public is the hollowing out of the department's expertise. Many experienced staff members have left since 2000, and a number of key positions are either empty or filled only on an acting basis. "There is no policy," an economist who was leaving the department after 22 years told The Washington Post, back in 2002. "If there are no pipes, why do you need a plumber?" So the best and brightest have been leaving.

...more...

[UpInArms]

50. shameless thread tie-in

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1773612

[54anickel]

53. I'm sure we could come up with tie-ins daily. They have gutted nearly

every single program that protected the middle and lower class of this nation. They are making the final transfers of wealth and power to the plutocracy before the US tail-spins into another banana republic. Bush was the perfect delusional tool for them to use, with his vision of dictatorship and neo-con empire.

Here's the tune running thru BeelzeBush's pea-brain....

Imagine there's no welfare,
It's easy if you try,
Only serfs below us,
Above us only pie,
Imagine all the people
serving only me...

Imagine no other countries,
It isnt hard to do,
Nothing left to kill for,
Only my religion too,
Imagine all the people
serving only me...

Imagine no possesions,
I wonder if you can,
No need to feed the hungry,
No brotherhood of man,
Imagine all the people
Serving only me...

You may say Im a dreamer,
but Im not the only one,
I know some day you'll serve us,
In the world of Neo-cons.

[ozymandius]

44. Campbell Soup 4Q Profit Soars 63 Percent

CAMDEN, N.J. - Campbell Soup Co., whose brands include Pepperidge Farm, V8, Godiva, and its namesake soups, on Monday reported fourth-quarter profit climbed 63 percent, driven by lower marketing, higher selling prices, and productivity improvements.

But the company offered guidance for earnings including stock options expensing for this fiscal year that was below analysts' current projections. Campbell shares slipped 7 cents to $31.02 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Quarterly earnings rose to $96 million, or 23 cents per share, for the three months ended July 31 from $59 million, or 14 cents per share, a year earlier. Results last year included a 2 cent per share gain from the sale of a manufacturing plant, and a 5 cent per share restructuring charge. Excluding items, the company earned 17 cents per share in the year-ago period.

more...

[AnneD]

67. No doubt

people are stocking up for the impending bread lines....

[UpInArms]

45. 12:21 spiking upward

Dow 10,693.85 +15.29 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,184.25 +8.74 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,241.27 -0.21 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.177 +0.54 (+1.31%)

NYSE Volume 873,549,000
Nasdaq Volume 900,158,000

12:00PM: Market continues to trade with little conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle midday, as investors weigh a slew of multi-billion deals against the incentive to consolidate recent market gains...

Oracle's (ORCL 13.42 +0.14) $5.85 bln offer for Siebel Systems (SEBL 10.32 +1.19), confirmation from eBay (EBAY 37.85 -0.77) regarding its $2.6 bln purchase of Skype and Wachovia's (WB 50.06 -0.32) $3.91 bln proposal for Westcorp (WES 61.49 +0.14) and WFS Financial (WFSI 70.03 +5.11) has provided further evidence that companies remain awash in cash and are confident about the future. However, a two-week run during which the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq posted respective 2.7%, 3.0% and 2.5% gains, alongside a lack of market-moving economic and earnings news has left investors questioning if such gains are sustainable, leaving sector gains modest at best but overall leadership mixed...

The Financial and Technology sectors, which are the two most influential areas of the S&P, have stood solidly positive throughout the morning. With its 0.32% gain, Tech has retained the leadership position and supported the Nasdaq through its several pockets of relative strength. Software has gotten a boost amid Oracle's merger announcement and an analyst upgrade on Electronic Arts (ERTS 59.60 +3.48) while solid gains in bellwethers like Dell (DELL 35.00 +0.35), following an upbeat article in Barron's, and Yahoo (YHOO 33.92 +0.46) have also contributed to the modest but session-best performance...

[54anickel]

54. 1:44 and I've gotta run

Dow 10,684.69 +6.13 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,184.72 +9.21 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,240.91 -0.57 (-0.05%)
10-yr Bond 4.185% +0.06
30-yr Bond 4.456% +0.05
NYSE Volume 1,152,321,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,124,975,000

1:30PM : Blue chip indices continue to trade with a tinge of caution, as bond yields near session highs underpin a sense of nervousness following recent market gains...
The Treasury market continues to languish, as the benchmark 10-year note (-16/32) has lost ground for the fourth day in five and yields have hit a fresh session-high of 4.19% over the past half hour. After running on anticipation that the Katrina-effect would prod the Fed to at least postpone its rate-hike schedule at the Sept. 20 FOMC, traders' hopes have somewhat dwindled (e.g. fed funds futures now suggest only a 20% chance of a pause in monetary policy) as energy prices extend their pullback ahead of inflation-gauging PPI and CPI reports, which will hit the wires Tues. and Thurs., respectively... To that end, the rate-sensitive Utilities sector (-0.3%), the only other economic sector to enjoy a double-digit gain (+19%) this year, has simultaneously lost some appeal, turning in one of the worst performances of the session...DJUA -0.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1481/1674, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1645/1274

1:00PM : More of the same for the major averages as buying interest remains selective...

Recently hitting session highs, however, has been the Consumer Discretionary sector, as continued weakness in oil has sparked some renewed buying interest in a sector that has lost 4.4% so far this year. Aside from declining prices at the pump (gasoline at $1.88/gal, off $0.797) helping the Retail group inch into positive territory on the year, and analyst upgrades of Kohl's (KSS) and Dow Jones (DJ), other areas like motorcycle manufacturing (+2.2%), amid strength in Harley Davidson (HDI 51.08 +1.16), and automobile manufacturers (+1.1%), have also provided a bit of a boost...NYSE Adv/Dec 1508/1612, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1624/1279

[ozymandius]

55. 2:21

Dow 10,680.56 +2.00 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,180.92 +5.41 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,240.43 -1.05 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 41.76 +0.53 (+1.29%)
NYSE Volume 1,294,397,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,244,026,000

2:00PM: Major averages remain mixed, which corresponds to the standing of the ten economic sectors as six are up while four are down... Now in the driver's seat is the Industrials sector (+0.4%), fueled by General Electric (GE 34.38 +0.40), 3M (MMM 74.33 +0.81) and FedEx (FDX 80.88 +1.12), while Energy (-1.6%) still occupies the loser's slot... Strikingly, the same mixed disposition is on display in the Dow with 16 components up and 14 down at this time...

Of the winners, American Express (AXP 59.09 +0.90), GE and MMM top the list while Exxon Mobil (XOM 62.66 -0.54), Merck (MRK 28.97 -0.34), and Intel (INTC 24.94 -0.31), on the other hand, compose the loosing trio... NYSE Adv/Dec 1474/1712, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1655/1278

[UpInArms]

60. US regulator OFHEO says settles with Freddie Mac over ACCTNG SCANDAL

Is anyone else offended at the mealie mouthed headline that just kinds of tiptoes around the facts? :grr:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T185313Z_01_N12499060_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FREDDIE-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. regulator on Monday said it settled an action brought against Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) in 2003 related to a multibillion-dollar accounting scandal that requires the mortgage finance giant to help in ongoing actions against former executives.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said Freddie also agreed to seek recovery of funds from separated officers following administrative actions against the former chief executive and chief financial officers.

Under the consent order, which OFHEO said Freddie entered to resolve the case without incurring the additional cost and distraction of litigation, the company agreed to retroactively fire its former CEO, Leland Brendsel, and former CFO Vaughn Clarke.

It prohibits the government-sponsored housing enterprise from making payments to Brendsel or Clarke that would not be allowed had they been fired in June 2003.

The agreement also requires Freddie Mac to hand over to the regulator a host of documents, including a list with the names of all present and former company employees and other people who may have information relevant to the allegations brought against the company in 2003.

...more...

[ozymandius]

61. 3:10 - paint drying accordingly

Dow 10,683.66 +5.10 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,183.80 +8.29 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,240.85 -0.63 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 41.72 +0.49 (+1.19%)
NYSE Volume 1,498,318,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,408,995,000

3:00PM: No real change in sentiment as stocks continue to trade sideways... The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as decliners on the NYSE outpace advancers by a 17 to 14 margin while advancing issues on the Nasdaq hold a 16 to 13 edge over declining issues. A split ratio of up to down volumes also paints a similarly mixed picture at the Big Board and the Composite...

While all three major indices have found modest support above key technical levels, a lack of conviction on either the buy-side or sell-side leaves in question whether or not resistance levels of 10719, 1243 and 2195, respectively, can be breached...NYSE Adv/Dec 1478/1739, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1621/1359

[UpInArms]

63. The Lap-Dog Pile: Fed's Fisher-No rush to judge Katrina impact on Fed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-12T191526Z_01_WAT003863_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-FISHER-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher on Monday said the U.S. economy would rebound from the damage of Hurricane Katrina, but it was unclear what the devastation meant for monetary policy.

"How does Katrina alter the outlook? The truth is, we don't really know," he told the Texas Banking Department in remarks made available in Washington.

"My inclination is to read, listen and watch and not rush to judgment about how the disaster will impact the economy or how monetary policy ought to respond," he said.

Fisher is a voting member of the Fed's policy setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.

In other words: Don't think - we'll do that for you :puke:

[ozymandius]

66. closing numbers

Dow 10,682.94 +4.38 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,182.83 +7.32 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,240.56 -0.92 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 41.69 +0.46 (+1.12%)
NYSE Volume 1,910,758,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,723,721,000

blather later

[54anickel]

71. Splash o' meaningless blather

Monday's market remained stuck within a narrow trading range that reflected a conviction-lacking sentiment from start to finish. The morning's wires gave investors a host of multi-billion dollar M&A deals to digest, while the solid gains chalked over the past two weeks provided profit-locking incentive that sparked consolidation across the board, as split sector leadership closed the major averages in mixed fashion...
A lack of market-moving economic and earnings news and in part because the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have posted respective 2.7%, 3.0% and 2.5% gains over the last two weeks, even in Katrina's wake, perhaps also led to a day of lackluster action and modest consolidation efforts... With respect to the mergers announced today, Oracle's (ORCL 13.51 +0.23) proposed $5.85 bln deal for Siebel Systems (SEBL 10.31 +1.18) was endorsed on both sides of the aisle, as evidenced by the stocks' respective 1.4% and 12.9% gains...

Confirmation from eBay (EBAY 38.96 +0.34) regarding its $2.6 bln purchase of Skype was also welcome news while Wachovia's (WB 49.57 -0.81) $3.91 bln bid for Westcorp (WES 61.58 +0.23) and WFS Financial (WFSI 70.09 +5.17), in contrast, sent tremors of optimism on account of corporate confidence. With regard to the six economic sectors that closed to the upside, Industrials turned in the day's best performance, fueled by gains from blue chips like General Electric (GE 34.43 +0.45), 3M (MMM 74.23 +0.71) and FedEx (FDX 81.05 +1.29)... Renewed buying interest also helped the Consumer Discretionary pare some of its year-to-date losses, as declining prices at the pump and an analyst upgrade on Kohl's (KSS 54.13 +1.38) helped the Retail group (+0.8%) inch back into positive territory for the year...

Crude oil futures closed down 1.3% at $63.22/bbl (-$0.86) on signs that damage from Hurricane Katrina and record gas prices will reduce overall demand for oil... Also closing higher but posting even smaller gains were the Financial and Technology sectors. Financials found modest support from analyst upgrades on Citigroup (C 45.01 +0.40) and Countrywide Financial (CFC 35.74 +1.07), as well as solid follow-through buying in MMC (+0.6%) and AOC (+4.6%), that offset the weak bond market's affect on the interest-rate sensitive sector...

The benchmark 10-year note closed down 14 ticks, yielding 4.17%. The Treasury market suffered for the fourth day in five as traders' hopes that the Fed may opt against a rate hike at the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting dissipated and ahead of key inflation gauges (i.e. CPI and PPI) due out later this week...

Tech, largely responsible for keeping the Nasdaq - the day's best performing major index, had several pockets of relative strength. Software got a boost on Oracle's merger announcement as well as an analyst upgrade on Electronic Arts (ERTS 59.15 +3.03) while hardware stocks got a lift following an upbeat Barron's article on Dell (DELL 34.83 +0.18) and amid speculation the group may be next to benefit from consolidation efforts... Energy, however, paced the way lower as another decline in oil prices and valuation concerns, which prompted analyst downgrades on key energy players such as Schlumberger (SLB 82.97 -2.23) and Halliburton (HAL 63.60 -2.50), underpinned consolidation efforts...DJTA +0.70, DJUA -0.11, DOT +0.34, Nasdaq 100 +0.27, Russell 2000 +0.41, SOX -0.22, S&P Midcap 400 +0.04, XOI -2.29, NYSE Adv/Dec 1539/1753, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1725/1283

[UpInArms]

70. After Hours Uh-Oh - China Reports Current Account Surplus to hit 6% GDP

Their "surplus" - Our "deficit"

5:00pm 09/12/05 IMF: CHINA '05 CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS TO HIT 6% OF GDP

5:00pm 09/12/05 IMF SEES RISK THAT CHINA WILL HAVE TO TIGHTEN FURTHER

5:00pm 09/12/05 IMF SEES CHINA CPI MODERATING TO 3.0% IN 2005

5:00pm 09/12/05 IMF SEES CHINA GROWTH SLOWING TO 9% RATE IN 2005

5:00pm 09/12/05 CHINA SHOULD USE FLEXIBILITY OF NEW FOREX REGIME, IMF SAYS

5:00pm 09/12/05 CHINA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IS 'GENERALLY FAVORABLE,' IMF SAYS

5:00pm 09/12/05 IMF SEES CHINA'S STRONG GROWTH CONTINUING IN 2005