Merkel, Schroeder Claim Right to Lead Germany: Table (Update3)

[arcos]

Merkel, Schroeder Claim Right to Lead Germany: Table (Update3)

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- German opposition leader Angela Merkel and Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder each claimed the right to lead the government after an inconclusive result in today's election.

Merkel's Christian Democrats led Schroeder's Social Democrats by 35 percent to 34.1 percent, according to projections from ZDF television. The projections showed neither Merkel and her Free Democrat allies nor Schroeder and his coalition partners, the Greens, would win a majority of seats.

<snip>

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=azN1N_G2m3lA&refer=germany

This is a HUGE defeat for Angela Merkel and the conservatives... they were leading by as much as 23 points just a month ago, and they seem to have won by just 1%.

[malaise]

1. Interesting times for Germany

21:37 UTC
Does Dresden Decide?
The head of Germany's Emnid polling organization has predicted that a provisional final result will not differ greatly from current predictions, but the winner could still remain undecided until a late election in the eastern German city of Dresden takes place on Oct. 2.
Under Germany's complicated system of calculating
parliamentary seats, Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats could yet win more seats in parliament than the opposition Christian Democrats, despite receiving fewer votes overall.
With the so-called overhang seats, the SPD and CDU both have 222 seats. The 219,000 registered voters in Dresden could in the end be the tie-breaker.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1713767,00.html

[Maple]

2. Interesting that most major countries

are barely electing govts anymore...and Germany seems to be the worst of the lot with what looks like a hung parliament so far.

US, Canada, UK...none of them seem impressed with ANY of the current parties. Maybe we're about to see a huge political change.

[Greeby]

3. Regarding us lot (UK)

The Livingston by-election (the late Robin Cook's old seat) should be an indicator

[1932]

10. Different opinion: amazing that the liberal parties have the success they

are haivng in a world in which the corporations are getting more and more powerful and in which the Republicans run America. I have no doubt push is calling in all favors trying to get conservatives elected everywhere and it is not working.

I would not be surprised that once the Democrats take back the white house you'll see victory margins jump 5 to 10% all over the world for liberal parties.

[arcos]

11. "Liberal" is only left wing in the USA...

In most places around the world, liberals are right wing, or at least very centrist, they are not left wing. They are usually pro-business and advocate free market just like the Republicans (and lots of Democrats) do.

I certainly hope that democratic left parties and not liberals start gaining support.

[1932]

14. They're better than the alternative: blatatntly pro-business anti-social

srvc, anti-education, anti-decent health services.

[arcos]

15. They usually partner with conservatives...

That's the case in Germany, for example...

[1932]

36. Schroeder worked very hard to cut into Merkl's lead

He campaigned very smartly and he worked hard.

I don't think he would have done that if he didn't believe he had something better to offer Germans.

[muriel_volestrangler]

37. The 'liberal' Free Democratic Party may be the most pro-business of all

The Free Democratic Party comprises liberals who advocate free market economics and reduced government intervention. It was formed in 1948, although smaller liberal predecessors can be traced back to the 19th Century.

In the 1950s it found support mainly among the self-employed, small town conservatives and some farmers, but it later broadened its appeal to white-collar workers. It has never managed to garner enough support to challenge either the SPD or CDU but has played a prominent role in German political life as the kingmaker in coalitions.

Support for the party fell in the 1990s and the choice in May 2001 of a young new leader, Guido Westerwelle, was intended to broaden its appeal.

The party provoked controversy in the 2002 elections, when the then vice-chairman, Juergen Moellemann, published a pamphlet regarded as anti-Semitic and an attempt to court the right-wing vote. Mr Moellemann was forced to leave the party and committed suicide in May 2003. Since then the FDP has concentrated mainly on calling for economic reform. It favours more far-reaching reforms than either the SPD or CDU.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4219274.stm

[Mairead]

44. Well, that fits right in with other fascist misnamings, such as

'democratic', 'socialist', 'peoples', etc.

They can't very well come right out and say they're corporatists who favor the wealthy owning and running everything: everyone would run away!

[Dancing_Dave]

13. No major parties oppose free trade/corporate globalization

Yet the left parties ultimately MUST find a way to curb it, because it hurts their constituency.

Right parties could challenge it from a nationalist point of view.

One way or another, something has got to give.

[Euroliberal]

30. Free Trade/Globalization

"No major parties oppose free trade/corporate globalization. Yet the left parties ultimately MUST find a way to curb it, because it hurts their constituency."

Actually I think the "Left Party" ran on exactly that platform, but nobody will make a coalition with them and they won't make a coalition with anybody.
The SDP could drop Schroeder and join the Left Party in those economic views... but I think economic reality would bite them in the "you know what" and it wouldn't end up well for either party.

[DavidDvorkin]

4. Hand wrestling!

That's how they should settle the issue of the Duelling Chancellors!

[fedsron2us]

5. Quite a turnaround

I understand that Merkel's neoliberal economic agenda and obvious pro Washington bias has not been universally popular, even within the rather cautious and traditionalist CDU. Her party can not be happy with this rather dismal showing when by all the normal rules of politics they should have been able to trounce Schroeder's second term government with some ease. Gaining a narrow victory and forming a coalition government with a tiny majority may be worse than not winning at all.

[Yupster]

6. In the UK, it's the queen

who asks one or the other to form a government.

In Germany it was the President before WWII.

Does anyone know if this is still how their system works today?

[Kellanved]

40. All are invited to build a coalition

There is no automatism that favors the strongest party.

As the SPD is clearly the strongest Party (SPD: 34.3%, CDU: 27.8%, CSU 7.4%), Schröder has some legitimation to claim a mandate. The addition of the CDU/CSU votes reflects the political reality, but not the legal set-up.

Also, when the Bundestag can't reach a consensus on who should lead the country, the President can appoint the candidate with a relative majority of votes in the Bundestag.

[reorg]

43. I knew it

that someone, maybe a loyal SPD party soldier, would come up with this:

"As the SPD is clearly the strongest Party (SPD: 34.3%, CDU: 27.8%, CSU 7.4%) ..." ;-)

I wish you good luck with splitting the C parties, it would be a formidable achievement, IMO.

Do you know if the by-election in Dresden could still change the balance between SPD and CDU/CSU? At ard.de I read that the SPD could - at least theoretically - win three more mandates, but I don't quite get it, since it is only one district?

[Kellanved]

45. the CDU/CSU split is a gag,

but a good one. The only way this could ever happen would be the CSU ending up below the federal 5% threshold; but the three-districts rule would allow them in even then.

With the current situation one might just go ahead and count the FDP in - those clowns don't even claim to have a position anymore.


As to Dresden: IIRC there are two ways how it could change the outcome: 1. another overhanging mandate for the CDU.
2. Negative weight of the vote, resulting in one seat less for the CDU.

[norml]

7. No Clear Cut Winner in German Election

No Clear Cut Winner in German Election
Schroeder Victory Unlikely, Exit Polls Show

By Craig Whitlock
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, September 18, 2005; 2:10 PM

BERLIN, Sept. 18 -- German voters ended the reign of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's ruling coalition Sunday, but split their ballots among so many different parties that no group was immediately able to cobble together a new government, according to exit polls.

Although Schroeder's seven-year career as chancellor appeared to be in severe jeopardy, his chief rival, Angela Merkel, also had a disappointing day. Her coalition of Christian Democrats and Free Democrats fell short of winning a majority in the German Parliament, exit polls showed, raising the prospect of political gridlock in the near term.


Merkel appeared before a crowd of supporters about 30 minutes after the polls closed to acknowledge that she lacked the votes to declare herself Germany's new chancellor. She said she would open negotiations immediately with the country's other parties -- including Schroeder's Social Democrats -- in hopes of forging a new alliance to govern Germany, something that could take days or even weeks to sort out.

"The campaign is over and now we need to create a stable government for the people of Germany," Merkel said. "This is our mandate."

Exit polls indicated that the electorate was more fragmented than in any other national election in recent history, a reflection of widespread anxiety over high unemployment and a sputtering economy, as well as a lack of confidence in either Merkel or Schroeder to lead the government.


snip


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/18/AR2005091800225.html?nav=hcmodule

[KoKo]

8. Many THANKS for this update for us "clueless Americans"

Our little business works with a German firm...it was great to see the post and the link to German Newspaper about this election.

It's amazing...Germans vote in higher numbers than Americans...and it's always great to be able to know what one's "client" is dealing with.

INTERNATIONAL DU! I love it...!!!!

:toast: And a bottle of a Great German Beer to ya'!!!!

[Endangered Specie]

18. 77% they had.... that would be considered miraculous here

sad huh?

[Lexingtonian]

9. OTOH

It's still Schroeder who lost real percentages despite all the advantages of incumbency, and Merkel who picked up a substantial number net and (probably) plurality.

Don't assume that we're all naive-ish Schroeder supporters. My opinion as a Hamburg quasi-native is more sympathetic of Merkel as a person. From a sadly pragmatic point of view, Germany is in need of implementing the substantial political and economic liberalization and rational limitations/decreases on entitlements the German Left cannot provide.

The present (apparent) result puts the fate of further reform efforts into the hands of the FDP and the Greens. In my view it says that the German electorate wants the political and economic pain deferred, or more incrementally imposed, than a CDU/FDP coalition would.

[Dutch]

39. BOTH main parties' share of the vote fell

The difference being the SPD's fell less than expected, the CDU/CSU's far more. Mercifully, most German's weren't so "naive" as to buy Merkel's neo-liberal snakeoil.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. Preliminary Official Election Returns

Nearly seven hours after the polls closed on Sept. 18, the German election commission has published its first official preliminary election returns:

CDU/CSU: 35.2
SPD: 34.3
FDP: 9.8
Left Party: 8.7
Greens: 8.1

The division of seats is as follows:

CDU/CSU: 219
SPD: 213
FDP: 61
Left Party: 54
Greens: 51

Voter turnout was 77.7 percent.

http://www9.dw-world.de/ticker/index.php?lang=en

From what I can tell on the web, the electoral system means there are at least 598 seats in the Bundestag (which is what these numbers add up to), but it is possible to have more, due to the way regional seats are allocated - so earlier projections may have shown a greater total number of seats ("overhang seats").

http://www.lusaka.diplo.de/en/Bundeswahl_202005.html

[Dancing_Dave]

16. So neither Schroeder or Merkel win!

At least not with the coalition they wanted.

Can neither of them be Chancellor--a majority coalition might require some one else to lead it!

[Endangered Specie]

17. Schroeder stated that he would form a grand coalition only if

he were to lead it. (Im willing to bet the CDU/CSU leader feels the same way)

[redsoxliberal]

19. COME ON SCHROEDER!!!

[Euroliberal]

20. This is a disaster for all parties involved

Looking at the breakdown of seats... There is no feasible arrangement that will attain a majority except for the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats in a unity government, and neither side is willing to budge for the other.
I think this is a case in which the leaders of the 2 main parties should stand together and say "Vote again". Neither of them can govern with this election result. Call it a "hung jury" and send it back to the people. They have to decide one way or another what future they want.
Absent that however, the only way I could see this impass being broken is if either
A. The Greens join the Christian Democrats and Free Democrats in a coalition (though I can't really see Greens and Conservatives as a coalition can you?)
or more likely...
B. The Free Democrats join with the Social Democrats and Greens to form a coalition. This would play right into Schroeders hands, since what he really wants is a coalition that will support economic reforms. The Free Democrats are even more pro-reform than Schroeder, so I don't see why this possibility isn't mentioned more.

[fedsron2us]

38. I very much doubt if the Left Party think its a disaster

They have come from nowhere to overtake the Greens and to rival the Free Democrats as the third party in German politics. If the CDU/SPD parties were to stitch up a coalition that excludes them then they will become a de facto opposition and might win more seats in a future election if the new government proves to be unpopular.

With regard to option B the Free Democrats are already on record as saying that they will NOT enter a coalition with the SDP.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4259052.stm

The fact that the economic neoliberals and the Murdoch press are stating that the result is a disaster makes me think that it is nothing of the sort. I have to laugh when I read articles such as one published in Bloomberg which states that Germany will be left without either a functioning economy or government. Last time I looked the country had an enormous trade surplus with the rest of the world. This is not something that the supposedly superior Anglo-Saxon economies enjoy. The message from the election seems loud and clear the German people want their politicians to come up with alternative solutions to their problems not just blindly to swallow the snake oil being pumped out by the politically, economically and morally bankrupt regime in Washington.

[reorg]

42. I couldn't agree more n/t

[buzzsaw_23]

Confusion as both Merkel and Schröder claim chancellorship

Confusion as both Merkel and Schröder claim chancellorship

Luke Harding in Berlin
Monday September 19, 2005
The Guardian


Germany was plunged into uncertainty last night when the leaders of the two main parties claimed they could become chancellor after neither won a majority in the general election. The result was a blow to the conservative challenger, Angela Merkel, whose party started the campaign with a 21-point lead. Although Mrs Merkel could still become the country's new leader, she can now probably only do so as part of a "grand coalition" with Gerhard Schröder's Social Democratic party.

Polls indicated that the two parties would have almost exactly the same number of seats in parliament. The outcome suggested that neither side was in a strong position to bring about reforms to pull Germany out of its economic stagnation. Earlier, Mrs Merkel insisted her party had received a mandate to form a coalition government and that she would talk to all parties except the new Left party. "What is important now is to form a stable government, and we ... quite clearly have the mandate to do that," she said.

Mr Schröder, addressing crowds of cheering supporters, said: "I feel myself vindicated. I have a mandate to ensure that in the next four years there will be a stable government in our country under my leadership." He said negotiations between his and the other parties, except the Left party, would begin.

With votes counted in 98% of districts, Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats had won 35.3% of the vote; Mr Schröder's party 34.2%; the Free Democrats 9.8%, the Left party 8.6% and the Greens 8.1%.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/germany/article/0,2763,1573263,00.html

[xultar]

21. There is still that one Zone that has to vote in a coupla weeks...

I forget but one candidate died which forces a late vote for chancellor too.

[Bumblebee]

23. Dresden which is in East Germany and may be leaning towards

her for that reason? I don't know enough of East German politics to figure that one out.

[xultar]

28. I heard that the East Germans were pissed cuz they think she shed

her East German heritage to go for power.

[JVS]

46. East Germans often vote for the PDS

[Binka]

47. Right. A german fellow who works with my husband here in Italy

and he is from Dresden said the vast majority see Merkel as a turncoat. They did not support her. If Dresden is her hope she is shit out of luck but I think she is SOL anyway she turns. Stoiber and other CDU elites have decided to shit can her.

The Thatcher wannabe has had her 15 minutes of fame.

[Democat]

22. At least Schroeder is standing up for those who voted for him

Unlike Kerry and Gore and most other Democrats in the United States.

[brentspeak]

24. I'm not sure what you thought Kerry was supposed to do

Did Kerry have some kind of evidence of election fraud that he could have claimed in the aftermath of the election? He would have looked like the biggest idiot in American history to contest the election without anything hard to point to.

As for Gore - he went after the Florida rip-off full throttle for an entire month. It's not his fault he was stopped by the SCOTUS.

[Democat]

27. Kerry didn't fight during the election!

Gore didn't fight enough during or after the election.

Did you see the quotes out of Germany today? Schroeder warned Merkel that he is going to make her life hell and that he will keep on fighting. Gore tried to be friendly and gave Bush strength instead of doing everything he could to undermine him.

The Republicans have no problem standing up for their voters even when they are in the minorty. Democrats won't stand up for us even when we are in the majority.

Democratic leadership doesn't exist.

[brentspeak]

29. Gore certainly fought during his campaign

At least, he did in Florida. He campaigned and ran around that state like a rabid animal. The only problem was, he spent so much time and energy running around Florida that he neglected his home state of Tennessee, as well as BC's Arkansas, taking them both for granted. He got burned on them. (Also got burned by Ralph Nader voters, Jeb Bush, and SCOTUS, but that's another story.)

And Kerry got pi$$-poor campaigning support from the Democratic Party. No one seemed to be on message for him. Can't do everything yourself.

[Endangered Specie]

25. I dont suppose they have a court that can decide the election instead?

:sarcasm:

[bluestateguy]

26. By my count, parties of the left won 50.9% of the vote

It would seem that the ball is in Schroeder's court now.

[Euroliberal]

31. Left Parties are not united

"It would seem that the ball is in Schroeder's court now"

The "Left Party" is a coalition of the former communist party of East Germany and anti-Schroeder MP's from the Social Democrats... so a coalition with them wouldn't work. That's why the ball isn't really in Schroeders court right now.

[confludemocrat]

34. There is the Liberal Party also, are they liberal? might be diff. there

[arcos]

35. Yes...

The international flavor of liberals (center-right), not USA flavor (left).

[confludemocrat]

33. This was about taxes a flat tax and a raise in the value-added (sales) tax

And the voters when they thought about it ran away fast. Good for them.

[Hardrada]

32. Wow, an other electoral fuckup

And Ralph Nader wasn't even running!

[Stockholm]

41. Schröder should form a coalition

with the greens and the left party. EOM