...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR

[RPM_BU]

WTNT33 KNHC 211137
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...28.00 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Justice]

1. Already? Yeks.

[halobeam]

2. I just heard on CNN that if it gets so strong, so big, it will

break itself up. The eye gets so small at that point, especially when it hits a cat 5, that it will break up and certainly weaken itself and certainly restrengthen again, but maybe not to a five again.

It depends on the eye recycling stage when it gets near land, if it is in the breaking down stage, it will be better for everyone.

They do however believe it will only vary between a four and a five before it hits land. Now are we being asked to hope for "just a four"? That is too much to deal with.

[wishlist]

10. Katrina got up to 175 mph before weakening to about 145 mph when it hit

Very probable that Rita will also get incredibly powerful but weaken before hitting land since Rita seems very similar to Katrina. But a Cat 4 Hurricane at 135 to 145 is still devastating.

[Tesla]

3. Rita a Catagory 4!!!

http://www.cnn.com
Just out on CNN
BREAKING NEWS

Hurricane Rita now Category 4 storm with top sustained winds near 135 mph, according to National Hurricane Center. Details soon.

[Corgigal]

4. Well there goes that 2 pm prediction

that it would be a cat 4 at that time.

Poor people, whoever you are.

[whistle]

5. Good link, but not about Rita

[demo dutch]

6. It will be a Cat 5 before the end of the day!! then Cat 6 which might as

exist based on the warmth of the gulf!

[LiberalVoice]

8. I dont see what you're talking about. nt

[demo dutch]

11. I mean it will continue to strengthen and could become a strong Cat 5

and exceed the scale. .. Since we' re dealing with the global warming factor and the gulf waters are so warm and above normal, maybe they should add a category since it we're seeing storms getting stronger and stronger faster and faster. We're dealing with an entire new situation not seen before.

[Oreo]

13. Somebody here come up with a great idea

Redoing the current scale with one that describes wind speed, size, and something else. It was after the Hurricane that hit FL earlier in the year that the media was saying was doomsday... the CNN blowing sign storm.

[insane_cratic_gal]

7. Mandatory evacuations

For NO.. geez can these people get a break!

[berni_mccoy]

9. BREAKING CNN: Rita Category 4 Now

www.cnn.com

"Hurricane Rita now Category 4 storm with top sustained winds near 135 mph, according to National Hurricane Center. Details soon."

[saigon68]

12. kick

[Up2Late]

14. Rita now Category 4 hurricane (Reuters)

Rita now Category 4 hurricane

Wed Sep 21, 2005 09:30 AM ET

By Jim Loney

MIAMI (Reuters) - After lashing the Florida Keys, Hurricane Rita was upgraded on Wednesday into a more powerful Category 4 storm as it headed across the Gulf of Mexico on a course that could take it to Texas and dump more rain on Katrina-battered Louisiana.

Rita's winds increased to 135 mph (193-kph) winds as it headed into the Gulf. The storm hit the Florida Keys but did not get close enough to reach the vulnerable chain of islands with its most destructive forces.

The upgrade put Rita in the same strength classification as Hurricane Katrina, which devastated parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama last month, and it sparked concern in financial markets that the new storm could wreak as much damage as Katrina's assault on the U.S. Gulf Coast last month.

U.S. crude-oil prices rose and the dollar weakened against the euro. U.S. stock futures also pointed to a lower market open. Rita's most likely future track would take it to Texas by the end of the week, raising fears the sprawling storm could bring heavy rains to flooded New Orleans and threaten the recovery of oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

<http://go.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=9715979&src=rss/topNews>
(more at link above)

[Up2Late]

15. Here's the forested wind fields in 45 hours, another huge storm

Note: This Graphic is self-updating (it moves on it's own)


The good news is, this thing might slam into the Crawford "Prairie Chapel Ranch."

I'm Sorry, Texas folks, but I really hope this does a LOT of Property damage. When people in Texas end up having to wait 2 to 5 days for help, this might be just the "wake-up call" Texas ReThuglicans need.

[lastliberalintexas]

16. Hope you're ready to get screwed then

There are tons of refineries in this area, and you only thought gas was expensive after Katrina.

Oh, and, not that it should matter, but most of the Texas coast is either blue or purple. Just thought you should know. And Crawford is way too far inland to sustain any real damage.

[belle]

18. I don't wish this on anyone. It's horrible. Well, except for * himself.

If only a very *very* small and localized twister could carry him off the planet, leaving everything around him untouched...maybe take his staffers and Cabinet members with him, okay.

[Up2Late]

22. Oh I'm ready, and because of some of the really stupid things Tom Delay

was saying yesterday on the house floor, we ALL should be ready because, it WILL happen.

I, and everyone here in Georgia, have been screwed since the 2000 sElection of your former Governor, and again in 2002 when his buddies at Diebold took away the people of Georgia's right to have our Votes counted (we were the beta sight for Diebold's vote rigging "Accuvote TS" strategy).

And since they are already predicting a 70% rise in Natural Gas prices this Winter and I live in a typical drafty, poorly insulated Georgia House, I'm most definitely going to get screwed this winter.

I'm not hoping for any deaths, but this bunch of, "can't walk and chew gum at the same time" so-called leaders, WILL screw this one up too, and since it will be happening in Tom "the bug man" Delay's district, maybe it will finally wake these no good, Sons of Bitch's up and serve as a sorely needed wake-up call.

Again, Sorry, but I've had about all I can take of Texas Politicians destroying the America I was once proud of.

[fudge stripe cookays]

27. Then if I were you...

I wouldn't be showing your face in the Texas forum anytime soon.

There are plenty of good Democrats who are going to be affected by this storm too. Just collateral damage, huh?

I don't wish harm on anyone, I don't care what their politics are. I sure didn't feel any pain when Trent Lott's house got destroyed, but I didn't wish it on him. It was karma coming back to bite him on the ass.

Not every politician in this country who's screwing things up is from Texas, although we do have our share. Santorum anyone? Sensenbrenner? Coburn?

Here's hoping a nice fat tornado gets spawned from this to scare all the Republicans around you.

That doesn't feel very nice, does it? :eyes:

Geez.

[Bridget Burke]

37. Georgia--home of Zell Miller!

[Up2Late]

41. Sorry about Zell, he was a fine, quiet Democratic Govenor...

...and Lt. Lieutenant Governor. His hard Right turn took ALL of us in Georgia by surprise.

If I was able to take back only ONE Vote in my life, it would be my vote for him for Senator.

[reprobate]

20. From this it looks like NO will take another hit. TS with a lot of rain.

[cwydro]

31. hey

where'd you get that graphic? Thought I had every hurricane site possible, but haven't seen that...Link?

[Up2Late]

40. Here's the link, and like I've been trying to say, this WILL be bad...

...very bad, and their is absolutely NOTHING we can do to stop it now.

I'm just hoping that some good will come from this, a very predictable disaster in the making. Maybe I said it wrong above, I'm not wishing this on anyone (except maybe the Shrub), just trying to be realistic.

The sooner everyone excepts that this will be bad and All you Texans in it's path WILL get screwed by our so-called leaders, the sooner you can start planning your strategy for the next few months.

I AM predicting that the WH and the Jerks in Congress WILL screw this up too. Maybe they will surprise us, I doubt it.

Best thing to do is, stock up, and get out as soon as you can, this is going to be bad.

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/> (just keep clicking on the Atlantic Storms until you get to Rita)

or <http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/tracker/dynamic/200518N_4H.html>

Also, please remember:

If your pre-computer printed, "Old Fashion" photos "get ruined" by getting wet, do NOT just throw them away! Most of them can be washed and re-dried with some Kodak Photo-Flo and hot water, they have to soak. Just don't try to peal them apart, if you soak them, they will 99 times out of 100 float apart and can be dried.

[cwydro]

32. yeah, PLEASE don't wish this

on ANYONE. Living here in the Keys (and we're mostly blue) we get the wits scared out of us frequently. It is awful to live through one and especially the aftermath. And it is ALWAYS those with the least who are impacted the most.

[Fenris]

34. How very progressive of you.

[progmom]

39. No. That is utter bullshit.

You don't wish death and destruction on people just to teach them a lesson. Or for political gain. That's sick.

[Up2Late]

42. No, what's Sick is reading Death and Property as the same thing.

I never "wished Death" on anyone, I said Property.

I guess I said it poorly because, I meant to say that I hoped that this disaster, that will happen, that something good will come from the chaos that's bound to ensue.

[Megahurtz]

17. Oh No!

:scared::cry:

[Mari333]

19. Yesterday my son drove to Houston to pick up his inlaws

who are in Houston and his other inlaws in Galveston..he hopefully made it back to Austin by now. I guess this is the first time his inlaws have ever just packed up and left their homes.

[Roland99]

21. 140mph winds....latest NOAA update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3%2Bshtml/181800.shtml

000
WTNT33 KNHC 211444
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW
ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W_sm2+gif/145605W_sm.gif
3-day project cone

[gasperc]

23. LIST OF CAT 3+ HURRICANES IN THE GULF

There were three years 1909, 1915 and 1916 when there was two storms of cat 3 or higher in the gulf.

Storm Lowest Pressure/ Areas Effected Rank
year Date Sustained Winds
1900 9/9/1900. 27.49/931 mb - Texas. 2
1906 9/24/1906. 28.29/958 mb - Alabama/Mississippi. 15
1909 9/20/1909. 27.49/931 mb - Louisiana. 2
1909 9/1909. 28.29/958 mb - Texas. 15
1915 9/29/1915. 27.49/931 mb - Louisiana. 2
1915 8/16/1915- 27.91/945 mb - Texas 5
1916 9/17/1916- 27.99/948 mb - Texas. 8
1916 7/6/1916. 27.99/948 mb - Alabama 8
1917 9/1917. 28.29/958 mb - Florida Panhandle 15
1918 9/1918. 28.20/955 mb - Louisiana. 13
1926 9/30/1926. 28.20/955 mb - Louisiana. 13
1932 8/15/1932. 27.79/941 mb - Texas. 3
1933 9/7/1933. 28.03/949 mb - Texas. 9
1934 9/11/1934. 28.41/962 mb - Louisiana. 17
1936 9/6/1936. 28.47/964 mb - Florida Panhandle 16
1941 9/1941. 28.29/958 mb - Texas. 15
1942 8/30/1942. 28.05/950 mb Texas. 10
1957 6/27/1957 AUDREY. 27.91/945 mb - Louisiana. 5
1961 9/11/1961- CARLA. 27.49/931 mb - 140-Mph. Texas. 2
1964 10/3/1964 - HILDA. 28.05/950 mb - 115-Mph. Louisiana. 10
1965 9/9/1965 - BETSY. 27.99/948 mb - 125-Mph. Louisiana. 8
1967 9/20/1967-BEULAH. 28.05/950 mb - 120-Mph. Texas. 10
1969 8/17/1969 CAMILLE. 26.84/909 mb - 190-Mph. Mississippi. 1
1970 8/3/1970- CELIA. 27.91/945 mb - 125- Mph. Texas. 5
1974 9/8/1974 - CARMEN. 28.11/952 mb - 120-Mph. Louisiana. 12
1975 9/23/1975 - ELOISE. 28.20/955 mb - 125-Mph. Florida Panhandle 13
1979 9/11/1979 - FREDERIC. 27.94/946 mb - 130- Mph. Alabama. 6
1980 8/9/1980 - ALLEN.. 27.91/945 mb - 115-Mph. Texas 5
1983 8/18/1983 - ALICIA. 28.41/962 mb - 115-Mph. Texas. 17
1985 9/2/1985 - ELENA. 28.32/959 mb - 115-Mph. Alabama/Mississippi. 16
1992 8/26/1992 - ANDREW. 28.23/956 mb - 115-Mph. Louisiana. 14
1995 10/4/1995 - OPAL. 27.83/942 mb - 115-Mph. Florida Panhandle 4
1999 8/23/1999 - BRET. 28.08/951 mb - 115-Mph. Texas. 11
2004 9/16/2004 - IVAN. 27.94/946 mb - 120- Mph. Alabama/Florida Panhandle 7

[Up2Late]

26. You missed a few from 2004, oh wait, scratch that, you said "Gulf,"

some of these were not in the Gulf. No longer sure about 2003, but their were 3 in the "Atlantc" in 2003 also.

Here's a 2004 rap-up report (pdf file) see page 2:

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATL2004Verification.pdf>

Alex -- July 31 to August 6 -- Cat. 3

Charley -- August 9 to 15th -- Cat. 4

Frances -- August 25 to September 9th -- Cat. 4

Ivan -- September 2 to 24th -- Cat. 5

Jeanne -- September 13 to 28th -- Cat. 3

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/>

[Up2Late]

35. Here's the links to the 1999 to 2003 summery reports

<http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/for_hurr.html>

[Roland99]

24. Western Gulf Water Temps

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

[starroute]

25. Weather blogs say category 5

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

There are two hurricane hunter aircraft in Rita this afternoon. The NOAA hurricane hunters found a central pressure of 934 mb at 11:17 am, and the Air Force hurricane hunters found a central pressure of 923 mb at 1:02pm. This incredible drop of 11 mb in 105 minutes is the fastest pressure fall I can ever recall seeing in a hurricane. Rita is now at or very close to Category 5 status. With an eye diameter of 25 miles, an eyewall replacement cycle is not likely today, and Rita may intensify to a level close to Katrina's strongest point--902 mb.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

SEP 21 2005 - 12:37PM CDT

The latest RECON reports confirm RITA is now a CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 Hurricane.

Center Pressure is down to 923mb, and MAX Sustained winds of 142KTs at Flight level -- implying 155mph surface winds. with gusts to 175mph.

[RPM_BU]

28. Unfortunately, bloggers don't always know what they are talking about

WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

[rainbow4321]

29. Pressure below 923...

per another weather blog site..noting also that's what Katrina was when she hit landfall.

If Rita is that now, what the hell will she be when TX is hit??


:scared: :scared:


http://www.khou.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=4877

[fudge stripe cookays]

30. Well, even though I never got to New Orleans before the storm,

we did get to Galveston last summer.

Thank Goodness for the seawall, but it's still going to be bad. Be safe everyone!

FSC

[cwydro]

33. this is going to be a bad bad storm

unless something very unusual happens....and Galveston has the history to remember...1900 and something like 6000 died.

[LeftHander]

36. Satellitte loop on NOAA shows northward turn...?

The last frame on the NOAA loop shows a distinct NW jump of the eye...

[RPM_BU]

38. Not that I can see

My loop is the 7:45 - 2:15 EDT time loop and it shows a due west track. The eye does appear to be getting a big larger in the last couple of frames, but that is most likely an eye wall replacement cycle beginning.