STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 27 September

[ozymandius]

Tuesday September 27, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 116 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 281 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 345 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1402
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 26, 2005

Dow... 10,443.63 +24.04 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq... 2,121.46 +4.62 (+0.22%)
S&P 500... 1,215.63 +0.34 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.29% +0.05 (+1.08%)
Gold future... 469.50 +2.30 (+0.49%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

LOSING IT

This title seemed appropriate given the state of affairs in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Without a doubt, there are many who have lost much. Unfortunately, too many paid the ultimate price and lost it all. All those afflicted - they remain in our prayers.

The economic ramifications of what has been lost on the Gulf Coast are still being assessed. The toll on the insurance industry, according to pundits refining their estimates, may exceed 100 billion alone.

Congress already has allocated $62.3 billion for rescue, recovery and repair from Hurricane Katrina, and analysts expect the total to go far higher. Add in at least $40 billion in private insurance payments plus billions more in state funds and federal flood insurance, and “it’s over a $200 billion event by the time you’re done with this,” said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor’s.

So, we can safely say that insurers are indeed ‘losing it’. I don’t know about you, but it seems to me that when ever the insurance industry loses anything – they usually ‘find it’ pretty quickly – more often than not through increased premiums. If I was a betting man, I’d say pretty soon we might all be feeling a little bit lighter in the wallet. While losing weight around the mid rift might be appealing to some – I must say I prefer good ole fashioned exercise! Can you say Ouch!?

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

49. So, Gonzales comes to the rescue of KPMG, claiming to look out

for the "little guy" (ordinary workers).

“The conviction of an organization can affect ordinary workers,”

“Justice must serve offenders and victims as well as the economy and the general public.”

So, just how is justice served when you level a 456 million fine for bilking the general public out of 2.5 BILLION?

[ozymandius]

2. Crude-Oil Prices Ease

BUDAPEST, Hungary - Crude-oil prices eased Tuesday after a robust rally a day earlier, but markets remained concerned over possible troubles with oil products as refinery damage by Hurricane Rita is still being assessed.

While Rita inflicted less damage than expected, all crude output in the Gulf of Mexico was still shut down and at least 16 refineries in Texas were closed after the storm blew through over the weekend, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

"Products are a huge risk in the market at the moment and I wouldn't be surprised to see those prices rally in the near future," said Sandra Ebner, energy analyst at Deka Bank in Frankfurt.

"With all the refinery problems in the U.S., everybody is seeking higher quality crude oil, which is easier to process, and this is keeping pressure on Nymex and Brent futures," she added.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Storms Cast Spotlight on Energy's New Reality

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/26/business/26oil.html

The vast energy complex spread along the hurricane-battered Gulf Coast apparently escaped serious damage in the latest storm. But for an industry still reeling from the impact of Hurricane Katrina, the recovery will be long and arduous, leaving global energy markets at the mercy of other natural disasters - or unforeseen twists in unpredictable oil-producing countries like Nigeria and Iran.

Once again, Hurricane Rita illustrated the energy market's new reality: with little production or refining capacity to spare, any disruption can have a big impact on tight and increasingly edgy markets. Until investments are made in new supplies, or demand slows down enough to ease the capacity squeeze, analysts warn that markets will remain volatile.

In the short run, much will depend on how quickly oil companies can restart their refineries and bring gasoline, natural gas and other products back to consumers. Energy prices, which had already soared in recent months because of fears that supplies were lagging demand, peaked last month after Hurricane Katrina cut production in the Gulf of Mexico and crimped many refiners.

By now, with the summer driving season at an end, refineries should have started building stockpiles of heating oil for the winter. Instead, most of them have been struggling to churn out more gasoline to make up for the lost refining capacity. Ahead of the peak winter demand, this leaves markets for heating oil and natural gas on shaky foundations and could mean higher prices in coming months.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Oil bubble set to burst?

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/26/news/economy/oil_bubble/index.htm

"Some" analysts say prices could now retreat after industry dodges severe damage from Rita.

With Hurricane Rita causing less damage than originally feared to the oil industry and oil prices treading water Monday, some industry analysts said we may be about to watch a steady, and significant, drop in energy prices.

"Price declines could be slow this week, maybe with a bubble burst at some point in the future," said analyst Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover. "It does appear we've turned the corner here in this market. I don't think we'll see prices at these levels again anytime in the next five years."

-cut-

But prices are still well below levels reached last week when Rita was bearing down on the Houston-Galveston area, and Beutel and some other analysts were worried about a new price spike pushing gasoline to $5 a gallon.

-cut-

But before you start cheering Beutel's prediction, understand that part of his forecast is based on the belief that oil is high enough now to spark a global recession, which will significantly cut demand. He also believes that recent oil price records have spurred plans to increase global oil production, which he sees feeding the decline in oil prices.

more...

[hatrack]

26. That's right, Peter - China isn't using any oil at oil - ANY

Neither are India or Indonesia or Europe or the United States. In fact, demand isn't growing anywhere, and every day we're discovering billions and billions of barrels of oil - every day!

And that's why we'll be enjoying low, low prices at the pump for years to come!

:eyes:

[54anickel]

38. Sh*t, isn't that what they were saying when it hit $40? eom

[ozymandius]

91. Yes. Isn't it becoming tiresome?

I cannot remember the analyst's name. One dude who seems to be the "respected" name in oil futures has been wrong wrong wrong every time he's opened his gob about where futures are headed.

Sorry for the straw man jab. This bone headed forecasting has been going on for a long time.

[UpInArms]

84. Crude falls (to $65.10 bbl), unleaded gas up 2% in afternoon trade

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38622.575798669-843934993&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- November crude is down 72 cents at $65.10 a barrel but October unleaded gas is up 4.08 cents at $2.167 a gallon and October natural gas is up 5 cents at $12.49 per million British thermal units. Many traders consider the damage to the Gulf oil and natural-gas facilities to "be relatively small," said Agbeli Ameko, a managing partner at First Enercast Financial.

[UpInArms]

100. Unleaded Gas closes at $2.1664/gal Nat Gas closes at $12.656/mln btus

3:09pm 09/27/05 OCT UNLEADED GAS UP 1.8% TO END AT 3-WK HIGH OF $2.1664/GAL

3:09pm 09/27/05 OCT NATURAL GAS UP 1.7% TO CLOSE AT $12.656/MLN BTUS

2:51pm 09/27/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT $65.07/BRL, DOWN 75C, OR 1.1%

[ozymandius]

4. Braced for what's next

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A new drop in oil prices could give stocks a lift in early trading Tuesday.

-cut-

In addition to oil, investors will be looking at some new economic readings as well as reports of some new corporate mergers.

At 10 a.m. ET the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for September is expected to fall sharply to 95.0 from 105.6 in August before Hurricane Katrina sent oil and gas prices higher.

Also at 10 a.m. comes a government report on new home sales, which are expected to slip to an annual rate of 1.35 million in August from 1.41 million pace in July.

At 2:45 p.m. ET, investors will get to hear comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who is appearing via satellite before the National Association of Business Economists.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/27/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

[UpInArms]

67. Fed's Yellen: "U.S. economy on an unsustainable upward trajectory"

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B187627F0%2DA800%2D46A7%2DB44C%2DF1C7F4777E92%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

"Estimates of the extent of spending are escalating, and the recovery and bounce-back - fueled by massive fiscal stimulus- could propel the U.S. economy on an unsustainable upward trajectory," Yellen said.

She acknowleged that the higher energy prices put Fed policy makers on the horns of a dilemma.

The longer high energy prices persist, the more that consumer spending might be damaged, which calls for lower interest rates.

...more...

12:00pm 09/27/05 YELLEN: FED POLICY SHOULDN'T DEFLATE ANY HOUSING BUBBLE

12:00pm 09/27/05 YELLEN SEES RISK OF TOO SHARP REBOUND IN 2006

12:00pm 09/27/05 YELLEN: MONETARY POLICY CAN'T CUSHION HURRICANE IMPACT

12:00pm 09/27/05 YELLEN: HIGHER INFLATION NOT A GIVEN IN WAKE OF HURRICANES

12:00pm 09/27/05 YELLEN: HIGHER ENERGY PRICES PUTS MONETARY POLICY IN DILEMMA

12:00pm 09/27/05 YELLEN: GRADUAL RATE HIKE SENSIBLE GIVEN FORECAST OF REBOUND

12:00pm 09/27/05 FED'S YELLEN: CENTRAL BANK MUST NOT ALLOW INFLATION TO RISE

[54anickel]

74. Down is up, black is white, blah, blah blah. So what does that first line

mean?

Fed policy shouldn't deflate any housing bubble? Is she saying:

I don't think it will deflate any housing bubble (should one exist - we can't see bubbles until they pop)

or

Hey Al, don't you DARE touch that housing bubble or it's all over pal!

Inquiring minds and all.....

[UpInArms]

77. just my opinion, but...

I think it's:

Hey Al, don't you DARE touch that housing bubble or it's all over pal!

[54anickel]

80. Sorta what I was figurin'. Have I mentioned lately....

We are soooooo screwed.

[UpInArms]

83. Yellen says neutral rate may be lower than in past

(in answer to your question - it does appear to be answer #2)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T173909Z_01_NAT001814_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-YELLEN-NEUTRAL-URGENT.XML

LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - A neutral level of interest rates in the U.S. economy could be lower now than it has been in the past, but it is difficult to say what level constitutes neutral, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said on Tuesday.

"The so-called neutral fed funds rate might be lower than it has been historically but it's difficult to give a precise estimate ... of where neutral is," Yellen said in response to a question after a speech to members of Parliament at a conference convened by the European Economics and Financial Centre.

Yellen had been asked how much stimulus there is in the U.S. economy and whether growth will hold up if any of that stimulus were removed.

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.52 Change +0.41 (+0.46%)

Tommorow's Economic Releases: A Question Of Confidence

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3750&Itemid=39

U.S. Consumer Confidence (SEP) (14:00 GMT, 10:00 EST)
Consensus: 95.0
Previous: 105.6

Outlook : Consumer’s optimism for the month of September is expected to drop to its lowest level since November as the after effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita dim citizens’ outlooks on the business and employment markets in the months ahead. Earlier reads on confidence have posted even more pessimistic numbers than economists project for the Conference Board’s upcoming release. Over the period, the University of Michigan’s index fell to 76.9, the lowest read in nearly 13 years, while the ABC consumer confidence indicator dipped to -23 last week, its lowest level since May of 2002. Confidence has dropped off of recently strong levels as the fallout of both hurricanes takes its toll on the average consumer. Leading the assault on optimism has been gasoline and other energy products’ prices. Gasoline peaked at a record $3.057 per gallon on September 2nd. Since then, the price at the pump has fallen to an average $2.755 last week, but these prices are still nearly 50 percent higher than a year before and will prove efficient at curtailing consumer spending. Economists have reduced their expectations for economic growth from the third quarter to 3.6 percent at an annual rate from forecasts of 4.1 percent growth only a month earlier. The last bastion for optimism could come from the job market. If the improving labor market and rising incomes that have buoyed optimism for the past few months can weather the effects of the two recent natural disasters, then optimism could be in the cards for near future. But the short-term future of the labor market is murky at best. While expectations for incomes are still measuring August, economists forecast 172,000 jobs to have been lost in September due to the displacement of such a significant portion of the population. This will be the first posted net loss of jobs since May of 2003.

Previous: The Conference Board’s survey of 5,000 households measuring sentiment for economic conditions, employment outlook and spending plans rose unexpectedly in August to 105.6. The boost in optimism came on the back of strong job creation and rising incomes that have outpaced the pessimism concerning volatile gasoline prices. Businesses added 169,000 new jobs in August while incomes rose at least 0.3 percent each month for the five months ending with July. All of the major components of the index have shown improvements. The percentage of consumers who believe jobs were hard to come by decreased from 23.8 to 23.2, while those whom feel jobs are plentiful rose from 22.9 to 23.5 percent. At the same time, the gauge of optimism for the next six months rose to 93.7, while that over the present situation jumped to the highest read in four years to 123.6.

...more

Dollar Sells off as Oil Prices Rebound and Greenspan Warns About Housing Market

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3749&Itemid=39

US Dollar - With only existing home sales on the US economic calendar today, traders turned their focus to Fed speeches. There are four Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak today, not counting a speech by Treasury Secretary John Snow and one by President Bush. As we expected, Fed Presidents Bies and Moskow both downplayed the impact of the recent Hurricanes and talked up the resilience of the US economy to the recent temporary” setbacks. The market was looking for hints on what the Fed may do in November and Moskow, who is a voting member of the FOMC provided as straight of a response as we could hope. He said that the economic fundamentals in the US are “still strong” and that “there’s still excess capacity in the US economy.” In the world of the Fed, excess capacity is synonomous with having additional room to cut rates. The dollar held onto its gains for most of the morning, but once oil prices began rebounding right before lunch time, the dollar began to lose ground against the Euro. Oil prices first began rallying when President Bush said he that he wasn’t sure how much damage was done to the refineries in Rita’s path, but the rise accelerated after the release of reports that the refineries in both Texas and Louisiana may remain closed for a longer period of time due to some extensive electrical damage from Hurricane Rita. Close to a third of US refining capacity has been affected by the Hurricanes along with two key ports in Houston and Lousiana. To cap off the announcements, in his speech Greenspan focused his comments on the housing and mortgage market. He painted a gloomy picture by warning that households with exotic loans such as interest only loans could face significant losses. As he had noted before, he believes that the rise in home prices has been driven purely by speculation. Real estate broker Corcoran just released their 2005 mid-year report and although on an average basis, condo prices are up 26%, 1 bedroom condos in midtown east are up a whopping 50% from last year. When you have the prices of homes increasing that much in an environment where the population has not changed significantly, coming to the conclusion that speculators have been spurring the price increase is hardly surprising. Yet despite the persistent warnings by everyone including Fed officials and bank analysts, the housing market continues to move forward. Today, we saw existing home sales increase 2% in the month of August. Tomorrow’s consumer confidence report should not be as lucky as today’s existing home sales. We doubt that confidence managed to escape the impact of the Hurricanes.

...more...

[UpInArms]

54. Dollar up; shrugs off US consumer confidence sag

(never underestimate the power of intervention)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T150400Z_01_N27195486_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-7.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The dollar held overnight gains on Tuesday as traders shrugged off a sharp fall in September U.S. consumer confidence and instead anticipated a speech by the Federal Reserve chief would reinforce expectations of higher interest rates.

The dollar was off two-month highs against the yen and the euro, but the euro held near the key $1.20 mark as traders braced for Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's speech at 2:45 p.m. EDT (1845 GMT) .

"It's very likely any initial (currency market) response will trail off ahead of Greenspan's comments later today. We don't tend to respond to consumer confidence very aggressively, so all eyes are on Greenspan," said Todd Elmer, currency strategist with Citigroup in New York.

"Hawkish comments are likely to feed into additional dollar strengthening," he added.

<snip>

Analysts said U.S. companies' repatriation of profits from Europe before the end of the July-September quarter was also helping the dollar this week. U.S. companies get a much-reduced tax rate for repatriating overseas profits this year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200539.html

Sep 27	10:00 AM	Consumer Confidence	Sep	-	NA	98.0	105.6	-	
Sep 27	10:00 AM	New Home Sales		Aug	-	NA	1345K	1410K	-

[UpInArms]

30. Reports in:

10:00am 09/27/05 U.S. SEPT. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE OCT. 2003

10:00am 09/27/05 U.S. SEPT. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BELOW CONSENSUS 94.9

10:00am 09/27/05 U.S. SEPT. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO 86.6 VS 105.5 AUG

10:00am 09/27/05 U.S. JULY NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 1.37 MLN VS. 1.41 MLN

10:00am 09/27/05 U.S. AUGUST NEW HOMES SALES BELOW 1.34 MILLION FORECAST

10:00am 09/27/05 U.S. AUGUST NEW HOME SALES FALL 9.9% TO 1.24 MLN UNITS

[UpInArms]

31. Confidence plummets in September to 86.6

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B435ACC8E%2D4661%2D4310%2D9D63%2D867AD0991C73%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer confidence took a big hit in September from Hurricane Katrina, the Conference Board said Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index fell to 86.6 in September from 105.5 in August.

This is the lowest level since October 2003.

The decline was larger than expected. Economists were expecting the index to decline to 94.9, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Other consumer surveys, including the University of Michigan survey, have shown dramatic declines in consumer confidence because of Katrina. See full story.

Economists said it would be premature to conclude that consumer spending will follow confidence down. The key to the spending outlook are higher energy prices.

Fuel prices have remained high in the wake of Katrina and Hurricane Rita. This will curb spending in the short run, said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's consumer research center.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. U.S. August new home sales fall 9.9% to 1.24 mln units

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38622.4168677083-843899219&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of new U.S. homes dropped sharply in August, falling by 9.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.24 million, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the pace of home sales to cool slightly in August, to 1.34 million units. The supply of new homes on the market increased by 2.6% in August to 479,000, representing a five-month supply.

[UpInArms]

34. US Aug new home sales plunge, but prices rise

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T135939Z_01_N26303816_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HOMES-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. homes dropped a larger-than-expected 9.9 percent in August and the supply of homes for sale surged to a record high, but prices resumed their upward climb, a government report showed on Tuesday.

The Commerce Department said new single-family home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.237 million units, the slowest pace since January, from a downwardly revised 1.373 million units in July. July's sales pace was a record.

The August sales pace was 6.2 percent higher than a year earlier.

Economists had expected new home sales to decline to a 1.340 million unit pace from July's originally reported 1.410 million unit rate.

The decline in sales, the sharpest drop since November, pushed the supply of homes on the market up to a record 479,000 at the end of August. At August's sale pace, that represented a 4.7 months' supply, the most since June 2000.

The median homes sales price rose for the first time in fourth months, hitting $220,300 -- off slightly from the start of the year.

Sales dropped in all four major regions of the country. They were off 22 percent in the Northeast, 17.9 percent in the West, 10.6 percent in the Midwest and 2.2 percent in the South.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Fitch cuts GM's rating deeper into junk status

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-26T203445Z_01_N26145921_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-FITCH-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings cut its ratings on General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and its finance arm deeper into junk status on Monday, citing lack of progress at cutting costs and risks surrounding the restructuring of Delphi Corp.

Fitch has downgraded GM's ratings three times this year as the world's largest automaker has battled soaring employee benefit costs and competition from foreign rivals. GM lost $2.5 billion in North America in the first half of 2005.

Recent sales incentives have lowered market prices, making GM increasingly vulnerable to sales volume declines, Fitch said. Persistently high gasoline prices are also expected to reduce demand for GM's large vehicles, the majority of its new products, the rating agency said.

"We are firmly committed to improving our performance in North America," said GM spokesman Jerry Dubrowski. "We recognize that there is work to be done to improve our cost position."

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Here's a chart of GM's Credit Rating History:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-26T211619Z_01_N26153368_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-RATINGS-CHRONOLOGY.XML

The following is a chronology of past ratings actions on
General Motors by Standard and Poor's, Moody's Investors
Service and Fitch Ratings:
Standard & Poor's rating actions on General Motors:
Date                    Action         Rating
Nov 1981                Lowered        AAA/A-1+ to AA+/A-1+
Nov 1986                Lowered        AA+/A-1+ to AA/A-1+
Dec  1987               Lowered        AA/A-1+ to AA-/A-1+
Feb 1991                Lowered        AA-/A-1+ to A/A-1
March 1992              Lowered        A/A-1 to A-/A-1
Feb 1993                Lowered        A-/A-1 to BBB+/A-2
Oct 1995                Raised         BBB+/A-2 to A-/A-2
Jan 1998                Raised         A-/A-2 to A/A-1
Oct 2001                Lowered        A/A-1 to BBB+/A-2
Oct 2002                Lowered        BBB+/A-2 to BBB/A-2
Oct 2004                Lowered        BBB/A-2 to BBB-/A-3
May 2005                Lowered        BBB-/A-3 to BB/B-1

...more...

It would appear that Republican WH's are not good for GM - and remember the old saw: "What is good for GM is good for America"

[54anickel]

20. "Deeper into junk" - So what's that mean? Junk, junkier, and pure sh*t?

[ozymandius]

24. Yeah. Makes me wonder - what's junkier than just plain "junk"? n/t

[punpirate]

120. The P-C rating...

... "Pinto-Chevette." :)

[JNelson6563]

9. Nominated

More great stuff, as usual, this morning. Thanks for posting all the juicy parts of this realm everyone.

Today's reports should be interesting, eh?

Julie

[UpInArms]

12. g'morning Julie!

The "confidence" report should be illuminating - as it really will be the first one since Katrina (other than ABC/Wash Post) that might show how people are reacting the the perma-hike in gasoline, devastation in the Gulf Coast, etc.

:hi:

[JNelson6563]

19. Mornin' UIA!

I'm no svengali but I'd wager folks are feelin' a mite shakey about things right about now. Seems to me they're even fleeing Treasuries. I am not discouraged but the recent, modest drop in gold, I think long on gold is still the way to go, moreso than ever becasue my own confidence is dropping and I didn't think that was possible. heh

Julie

[UpInArms]

10. Hedge fund numbers to shrink greatly - Citigroup

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T070448Z_01_L27170347_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-HEDGEFUNDS-TRIBECA.XML

MONACO, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The number of hedge funds operating globally will shrink sharply over the next five years as rising cost structures and short-lived market trends divide the industry between boutiques and very large multi-strategy funds, the head of Tribeca Global Management said.

"There are 8,000 funds today and these will go down dramatically to 5,000 or fewer over the next five years and there will be a bifurcation in capacity," said Tanya Styblo Beder, chief executive of Tribeca, Citigroup's single manager proprietary hedge fund unit.

"Such a decrease will stem from rising cost structures as you will need a lot of scale to survive," she said, speaking to a symposium held by the Information Management Network on high-performance investing.

Styblo Beder said boutique hedge funds would specialise in areas such as trades linked to catastrophic events, insurance derivatives and credit arbitrage. Very large funds would focus on multi-investment strategies.

"The nature of market trends is changing and it will become increasingly difficult to survive. Three years ago trends were months long and slow moving. Now the top 10 to 20 trends tend to be less than four weeks and most of the money is made in the first 72 hours -- how do you trade that?" she said.

...more...

[54anickel]

35. A lot of the changing trends in that article don't just effect hedge funds

and that's the scary part, to me. Most people do not understand the markets and investing. They are confused by the options in their 401Ks, the mutual funds now being offered by their banks, and they sure can't get a decent return in a savings account these days.

The whole market has changed, yet they continue to push for buy and hold, piratization of SS, save for your own retirement since pensions are so yesterday, you need to be in the market to get a decent return, blah, blah, blah. But look at the changes going on...take that last line in your post, "the natureof market trends is changing"...

Volatility is all but gone...

The role hedge funds are playing in rapidly spotting and profiting from mispricing opportunities is reducing the volatility of financial markets overall...

As a result, past investment performance is becoming increasingly less of a guide to future market trends...

"A good portion of future returns will come out of portfolio constitution....

...Past returns won't show you where the returns are going to be and you're going to have to look for them...


Yep, them ziplock baggies are looking damned good these days. ;-)

[AnneD]

97. Hey 54anickel

be sure to take inflation into account and get extra baggies ;)

[UpInArms]

11. Water recedes from U.S. Gulf Coast, revealing ruin

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-09-27T004600Z_01_N26118039_RTRIDST_0_RITA-WRAPUP-3-PICTURE.XML

excerpt:

DAMAGE AND OIL

California-based Risk Management Solutions estimated Rita's insured losses would be $4 billion to $7 billion, including up to $2 billion to offshore energy facilities. That excluded new damage in New Orleans, where Rita caused a levee breach.

Katrina caused an estimated $60 billion in insured losses.

The energy industry, already reeling from Katrina, took another shot from Rita as it plowed through oil rigs and into onshore refineries, at times with 175 mph (280 kph) winds.

Two large refineries in Port Arthur, Texas, faced possible four-week outages and at least two others were damaged. Several rigs were missing and Chevron Corp. said a major oil production platform had been severely damaged.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. US weathers storms, expansion sustainable- ("Chopper" Ben) Bernanke

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T121826Z_01_NAT001809_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BERNANKE-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, Sept 27 (Reuters) - High energy prices are a burden on households and could ultimately restrain economic growth but so far the impact has been modest, a top White House economic adviser said on Tuesday.

"The U.S. economy is in the midst of a strong and sustainable economic expansion," Ben Bernanke, chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, said in remarks prepared for the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting.

"The resilience of the economy ... is helping it to absorb the shocks to energy and transportation from the hurricanes," Bernanke said, noting that damage from last weekend's Hurricane Rita was less than feared in most areas.

Inflation remains well controlled despite high energy prices and a favorable inflation environment is likely to persist, he said, citing ten-year inflation expectations of about 2.5 percent per year shown by inflation-indexed Treasury bonds.

...more...

I wonder exactly what this guy smokes?

[54anickel]

52. Whatever Ben. Wasn't there an article just last week that said we

were headed down the toilet long before the hurricanes?

You know, global warming wouldn't be taking place at such a rapid pace if these a$$holes would stop blowin' hot air outta their yaps.

See, the hurricanes ARE a direct result of this mal-administration after all. :evilgrin:

Hey Ben, STFU!!!!!

[UpInArms]

61. More from "Chopper" Ben: Impact of high energy prices small so far

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T152503Z_01_N27199172_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BERNANKE-UPDATE-1.XML

CHICAGO, Sept 27 (Reuters) - High energy prices are a burden on households and could ultimately restrain economic growth but so far the impact has been modest, a top White House economic adviser said on Tuesday.

"The U.S. economy is in the midst of a strong and sustainable economic expansion," Ben Bernanke, chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, said in remarks prepared for the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting.

"The resilience of the economy ... is helping it to absorb the shocks to energy and transportation from the hurricanes," Bernanke said, noting that damage from last weekend's Hurricane Rita was less than feared in most areas.

Inflation remains well controlled despite high energy prices and a favorable inflation environment is likely to persist, he said, citing ten-year inflation expectations of about 2.5 percent per year shown by inflation-indexed Treasury bonds.

...more...

This is Ben on crack :crazy:

[UpInArms]

75. Bush aide Bernanke sticks with post-storm optimism

They changed the article title on the page so that the direct tie to WH spew from the favored next Fed Chair is not so apparent.

:argh:

White House's Bernanke still upbeat
Fed contender says spending restraint key after storms

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD0C2B1A4%2D0FFB%2D401C%2D94F1%2DC6DBB897E915%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- While conceding there's already a short-term economic crunch stemming from the two recent Gulf Coast hurricanes, a top White House aide again lauded the resiliency of the national economy in the face of energy shocks Tuesday.

"The destruction wrought by Katrina and Rita may reduce growth somewhat in the short run, but the longer-term growth trajectory remains in place," said Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. He addressed the annual conference of the National Association for Business Economics here.

"High energy prices notwithstanding, inflation remains well-controlled," Bernanke said, largely echoing comments made this past weekend on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund meetings. See full story.

The Fed's long-term inflation vigilance has helped the ability of the national economy to withstand natural disasters or man-made destruction such as the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, according to Bernanke.

It's just such an inflation-fighting obsession that appears to be keeping the Fed on track with its recent campaign of higher interest rates, if policymakers' recent speeches are to be believed.

...more...

[54anickel]

79. Well that snippet ends with a big IF, doesn't it?

...if policymakers' recent speeches are to be believed.

You mean they may be questionable?

[UpInArms]

14. Taser tumbles; SEC probe's now formal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B489967FB%2DB228%2D4934%2D9AFD%2DD82A2C22D736%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Shares of Taser International fell in pre-market action Tuesday after the stun-gun maker said a previously disclosed Securities and Exchange Commission inquiry is now formal.

The stock lost 46 cents, or 6.3%, to $6.85. Volume of 5,000 was good for ninth most active on Instinet.

The Scottsdale, Ariz.-based company (TASR: news, chart, profile) also said the SEC's probe has been expanded to include examination of "the possible unauthorized acquisition of material non-public information" by individuals outside the company in an effort to manipulate the price of Taser stock.

The formal designation of the inquiry gives the SEC subpoena power to obtain documents and testimony from all parties it deems relevant.

For its part, Taser said it plans to supply the SEC with all materials it requests and continue to fully cooperate with the probe, first disclosed in early January. At that time, Taser said it was compiling information for the SEC related to the safety of its products, and a then-recent order from Davidson's Inc.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Treasurys pressured by more Fed views

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC539C8FC%2D4A8B%2D4B19%2DA235%2DAFB42040B9B8%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Benchmark Treasury note prices fell again on Tuesday, pushed lower by expectations the Federal Reserve will advance its interest-rate tightening campaign even after a double punch from Hurricane Katrina and Rita.

That outlook has been reinforced by a chorus of Fed speakers already this week, most of whom stressed that despite some risks to the economy, lending rates remain too low to achieve the neutral stance the central bank has been aiming for.

Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig offered the latest viewpoint.

He said overnight that the national economy appears positioned to withstand the effects of the storms and that the Fed must be alert to inflation risks.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will address the National Association for Business Economics conference here via satellite from Washington later Tuesday.

Lower oil prices overnight also argued for a green light at the Fed, bond traders said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

40. Treasuries up after fall in consumer confidence

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T141429Z_01_NYG000045_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-CONFIDENCE-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Tuesday as a sharp decline in consumer confidence sparked concerns in the bond market that high energy prices may hurt economic growth.

The Conference Board, a private business group, said its consumer confidence index plunged in September to 86.6 -- near a two-year low and well below economists' expectations of a 95.0 result.

Prices had turned higher shortly before the report came out at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT). Ten-year notes were 4/32 higher to yield 4.28 percent, while two-yearnotes were steady to yield 4.06 percent.

[54anickel]

57. Japan’s Resurgence Potentially Ominous for U.S. Treasuries

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Media/PR0922.html

snip>

That may be good news for Japanese investors, but Justice Litle, frequent Daily Reckoning contributor and authority in global investing strategies, says U.S. Treasury holders need to be cautious. He points out that Japan is the single largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries with over $600 billion in total holdings. As a group, Japanese consumers, rather than the Bank of Japan, are the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries in the world.

If optimism continues to build, Litle says, Japanese consumers could pull out of US Treasuries and redeploy their capital in the newly optimistic Japanese economy. This process could accelerate the rise of long rates and hasten the end of the liquidity bubble.

But Japanese consumers are not the only concern. “If the Nikkei rising like a phoenix from the ashes doesn't spur a U.S. Treasury exodus, the Bank of Japan just might.”

Litle says, “Japanese central bankers may well raise interest rates once convinced the recovery has legs. This shift in interest rate differentials could be a shot across the bow for dollar denominated assets.”

more...

[UpInArms]

59. Treasuries fall as Fed trumps weak confidence data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T151658Z_01_N27394383_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices initially rose on Tuesday as a sharp decline in consumer confidence sparked concerns in the bond market that high energy prices could hurt economic growth.

But the market, led by two-year notes, then turned lower, reflecting another market view that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to fight inflation even if high energy prices do slow economic growth.

Prices of maturities across the yield curve had been higher shortly before the report came out at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), but began to recede after the data were released.

The Conference Board, a private business group, said its consumer confidence index plunged in September to 86.6 -- a near two-year low and well below economists' expectations of a 95.0 reading.

[UpInArms]

103. Treasuries trim drop as vague Greenspan relieves

(strange headline - seems to be missing a noun?

Treasuries trim drop as vague Greenspan relieves __________

Fill in the blank time!

1) his bladder
2) his conscience (does he have one?)
3) his co-conspirators
4) his chemical dependency needs

you choose!)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T190712Z_01_N27232750_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-GREENSPAN-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices trimmed early losses on Tuesday as dealers were relieved that Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan largely avoided any comments that bore directly on the interest rate outlook.

Benchmark 10-year notes were off 2/32 for a yield of 4.30 percent, barely changed from Monday. Two-year notes dipped 2/32 for a yield of 4.09 from 4.06 percent.

Bonds had been trading lower in the early afternoon as investors shrugged off a mammoth drop in consumer confidence, focusing instead on the likelihood that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy regardless of the economy's performance.

[UpInArms]

16. Insider-trading settlement OKd by Ellison (Oracle) is invalidated

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/09/27/BUGADEUAO61.DTL

Larry Ellison will have to go back to the drawing board after a San Mateo County judge struck down an agreement in which the billionaire chief executive of Oracle Corp. had agreed to pay $100 million to charity to settle an insider-trading lawsuit brought by company shareholders.

San Mateo County Superior Court Judge John Schwartz said he was bothered by provisions of the settlement that would have paid attorneys $24 million.

"The $24 million jumped off the page. At first, I thought it was a typo," Schwartz said at the Redwood City hearing. "Then I kept reading and said, 'No, they're not joking.' "

In particular, Schwartz did not think Oracle should pay the fees. But Ellison's attorney argued that if the CEO paid them, he'd be essentially admitting wrongdoing.

The case stems from Ellison's sale of $900 million in Oracle stock in January 2001, a few weeks before the giant softwaremaker announced in March that it would miss its projected earnings target. The value of Oracle stock dropped after the sale.

...more...

[ozymandius]

18. pre-open blather

8:31AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. The stage remains set for a lackluster open, with participants sticking to the sidelines. After surging again yesterday, crude has reversed course in the early going amid reports of Rita's effect on supply, slipping 1.1% to $65.08/bbl - a move that hasn't triggered much excitement... Separately, news that WellPoint (WLP) is reportedly in talks to acquire WellChoice (WC) for $6.5 bln may direct some attention towards the Healthcare sector today.

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures trade suggests a flat to slightly lower open for the cash market, as traders perhaps wait on the Sept. consumer confidence report and Aug. new home sales data to set a more definitive tone to trading... For the former, which will reflect Katrina's impact, economists expect a read of 95.0; for the latter, the consensus is pegged at 1350K new units and reflects an expected 4.6% decrease...

Separately, blue chips may receive a boost today, after the Wall Street Journal deemed shares in companies like TWX, PFE, KO, DELL, and HNZ bargains.

[UpInArms]

22. g'morning Ozy!

deleting the simultaneous post - that ever so common attraction to the shiny coin syndrome :D

:hi:

[ozymandius]

23. Good morning UIA.

Seems we're seeking the same wooden nickel again.

[54anickel]

36. Ewwww, bargains in the blue chips today! Are they really bargains,

or just a bit less damaged than anything else out there today?

[UpInArms]

39. US blue chips edge up before consumer confidence data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T134816Z_01_N27205420_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-4.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were barely higher on Tuesday ahead of a report expected to show consumer confidence fell to its lowest since November in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Shares of oil company Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) slipped after analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase cut its rating on the Dow component to "neutral" from "overweight." Its shares were down 0.7 percent to $64.11 on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 7.56 points, or 0.07 percent, at 10,451.19. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 0.51 point, or 0.04 percent, at 1,215.12. The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index was up 0.49 points, or 0.02 percent, at 2,121.95.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index likely dropped in September from August, according to a median forecast in a Reuters poll.

Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and chief strategist at SW Bach and Co., said the market is mostly waiting for the consumer confidence report and will look to see if the number is lower than anticipated.

...more...

Let's see if it was "lower than anticipated":

Sep 27	10:00 AM	Consumer Confidence	Sep	86.6	NA	98.0	105.6	-

Yep! That was definitely "lower than anticipated".

(edited for typo)

[ozymandius]

21. markets are open for bidness

9:40
Dow 10,448.09 +4.46 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,121.48 +0.02 (+0.00%)
S&P 500 1,215.07 -0.56 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 42.96 +0.02 (+0.05%)
NYSE Volume 90,098,000
Nasdaq Volume 96,296,000

9:17AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5.

9:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures indications still little changed and continue to point towards a flattish open for the cash market. In addition to expectations for a large hurricane-induced decline in consumer confidence (10:00 ET), which could be keeping early market gains in check, Fed Chair Greenspan is speaking about the U.S. economy this afternoon at the National Association of Business Economists Conference ("NABE"), and the market may be anxious to hear his latest thoughts.

[UpInArms]

27. 9:50 EST Spiking to put out your eyes

Dow 10,461.86 +18.23 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,122.69 +1.23 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,215.85 +0.22 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 159,678,000
Nasdaq Volume 161,139,000

9:45AM: s futures trading had suggested, the cash market began the session in lackluster fashion and with mixed footing... With a dearth of news on the corporate front and talk that oil prices may have topped, having little influence on early action, the market may be waiting for upcoming economic data to set the direction. At the top of the hour, two economic reports - consumer confidence for Sept. and new home sales for Aug. - could do just that, while comments from Fed Chairman Greenspan about the U.S. economy this afternoon (1:45 ET) could also pique investors' interests...

[UpInArms]

33. 10:06 EST initial reaction to reports

Dow 10,443.80 +0.17 (+0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,118.58 -2.88 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1,214.20 -1.43 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.282 -0.12 (-0.28%)

NYSE Volume 259,958,000
Nasdaq Volume 249,727,000

[UpInArms]

37. blather

10:05AM: Market pulls back slightly, following a lower than expected read on consumer confidence. However, it appears the market has braced itself somewhat for such a disappointment as concerns about the economy's growth prospects related to the devastation from Katrina and subsequent surge in energy prices may have already been factored in to recent market weakness that took all three major indices down an average of 1.93% last week alone... Sept. consumer confidence fell to 86.6 - the lowest level in two years, well below an expected read of 95.0 and last month's figure of 105.5...NYSE Adv/Dec 1162/1540, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 961/1441

[ozymandius]

41. Secondary reaction - sell!

10:24
Dow 10,436.54 -7.09 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,117.39 -4.07 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,213.07 -2.56 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 42.71 -0.23 (-0.54%)
NYSE Volume 363,293,000
Nasdaq Volume 335,696,000

[54anickel]

42. But, but, but they just said the poopie numbers were already priced in!

[UpInArms]

43. 10:29 EST smaller loss and markets attempts to say:

"Who cares what you think!"

Dow 10,441.08 -2.55 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,118.75 -2.71 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,213.77 -1.86 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.275 -0.19 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 397,328,000
Nasdaq Volume 360,508,000

[ozymandius]

44. To sell or not to sell. That is the question.

Whether to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune...

10:31
Dow 10,449.84 +6.21 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,119.72 -1.74 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,214.49 -1.14 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 42.77 -0.17 (-0.40%)
NYSE Volume 402,110,000
Nasdaq Volume 364,381,000

[54anickel]

46. *SNARF* Good one Ozy!...n/t

[UpInArms]

47. 10:39 EST downward direction chosen

Dow 10,431.67 -11.96 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,117.65 -3.81 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,212.93 -2.70 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.281 -0.13 (-0.30%)

NYSE Volume 450,080,000
Nasdaq Volume 398,531,000

10:30AM: The indices vacillate around the unchanged mark, finding little support in the way of sector leadership... Consumer Staples and Materials, up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, are currently the only two of ten trending positive - gains which have little influence over the overall market as they jointly comprise only about 12% of the market... As for the laggards, Energy (-0.6%) leads the way lower while the Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.4%) trails...

Following a 12.3% decline in August new home sales - falling to 1237K (consensus 1350K) - homebuilders have slipped into the red, matching retailers in extending a 0.7% loss to the sector... To that end, Pulte Homes (PHM 41.97 -0.69) has slipped 1.6% and Centex (CTX 63.36 -0.56) has fallen 0.9% while not even upbeat earnings and guidance from peer Lennar (LEN 56.77 -0.30) has been able to counter the data's affect; LEN shares are off 0.5%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1031/1836, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 886/1672

[54anickel]

25. Foreign Investment Behavior in the Latest Flow-of-Funds Data

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=46879

Summary

Based on the Federal Reserve's latest flow-of-funds data, the United States came out of the second quarter owing the rest of the world a stunning $5.2 trillion more than the rest of the world owed it. This marked an increase of more than $600 billion from a year earlier. Making these numbers even more horrific, though, is that as recently as roughly 20 years ago, the United States was still a net creditor nation.

:think: Roughly 20 years ago - St. Ronnie, supply-side and Alan Greenspin!!!!

Introduction

Yesterday, the Federal Reserved released the latest edition of its publication "Z.1," "Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States." The most recent data are through the quarter ended 6/30/05. Before moving on to an examination of how foreign investors behaved during this period, I want to freshen up some numbers from full-year 2004. They have been revised slightly in the latest report, and they go a long way towards explaining Alan Greenspan's Treasury yield and yield curve "conundrum," as do some of the results from this year's first half.

snip>

* In addition to the huge proportion of foreign Treasury acquisitions last year, the Federal Reserve added $51.2 billion to its own Treasury portfolio. This means that during 2004, the Fed and foreign investors absorbed $409.7 billion or about 113% of total issuance of $362.5 billion. Obviously, this had a highly favorable on-balance influence on Treasury yields during 2004, but one materially lacking in traditional open-market characteristics. This results from combined foreign "official" (largely central bank) and Federal Reserve purchases of Treasuries of $323.9 billion, equal to 89.4% of last year's total Treasury issuance. Central banks are generally not very price-sensitive buyers.

snip>

A Look at the Latest Numbers

snip>

* Table 2 segregates the classes of capital-market assets that are readily salable by foreigners, or where a significant slowing in the rate of accumulation could adversely influence domestic prices. As of 6/30, these totaled $6.988 trillion, a very meaningful 67.1% of total US financial assets held by foreigners.

This illustrates the exposure US markets could have to a decline in the current rate of accumulation, no less a sizable decline in this rate, were it not matched by an equal decline in American demand for these funds (e.g., declines in the federal budget and current-account deficits). Outright net sales by foreigners would create "chaotic" conditions, to put it mildly.

more...

[UpInArms]

28. Agency finds fault with law benefiting Timken

http://www.indeonline.com/left.php?ID=4212&r=1&Category=1

WASHINGTON – An already-controversial anti-dumping law that has meant almost $400 million to the Timken Co. and its subsidiaries since 2001 and which benefits the Canton company more than any other manufacturer came under fresh fire Monday in a report from the Government Accountability Office.

The GAO, an investigative arm of Congress, said the law, commonly known as the Byrd amendment, has provided financial benefits for certain companies such as Timken while ignoring others that have been hurt by unfair trade.

Timken alone has received almost 40 percent of the money made available for all U.S. companies.

With the report highlighting the disparity, the law also came under attack from two powerful lawmakers, with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, leading the charge for its repeal. President Bush earlier had called for repeal after the law was ruled illegal by the World Trade Organization.

...more...

[JNelson6563]

29. I don't have exact numbers but

Home sales and consumer confidence WAAAAAY down. Just look at the Stock charts in OP to see how badly they hit the markets. Home sales down 9%+ and Conf. down to 86.something from 104 (I think?) Truly hideous stuff.

This could hure real bad. Jr didn't realize it was just poor black folk who were going to pay for his major screw-ups.

Julie

[ozymandius]

48. major screwups with horrifying consequences for the unsuspecting masses

According to yesterday's news, the yuan is expected to rise by 10% over the dollar in the next year. To the poor and soon-to-be poor, that's potentially a 10% markup at Sprawl-Mart.

Then there's the 45% markup on gasoline to drive to Sprawl-Mart. Then there's the 50% markup in home heating bills to pay after one carries the Sprawl-Mart cheap crap home.

[54anickel]

45. Gold’s Perfect Storm

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

To highlight gold’s virtues at this juncture runs the risk of sounding like one of those financial zealots castigated last Saturday in the Lex column of the Financial Times. In spite of the ongoing disparagement, the yellow metal has continued to shed its “barbarous” reputation, taking out fresh 18-year highs last week. Even more impressive is that for the first time in years, bullion is showing strength, not just in dollar terms, but also euros, Swiss francs, and yen.

Such a broadly-based advance has elicited the reluctant attentions of the mainstream press, which generally raise the subject of gold with the same degree of enthusiasm that President Bush does in discussing the mistakes of his administration. The usual politically correct reasons have been outlined: The inexorable rise in the price of oil, mounting monetary disorder, President Bush’s increasingly banana republic-like budget policies, the German elections, and hurricanes Katrina and Rita have all contributed. Perhaps none of these explanations in and of themselves can explain the reasons behind the yellow metal’s persistent strength, but taken in aggregate they have all contributed. In essence, we have the “perfect storm”, bringing new entrants into the market, all of whom have played a significant role in overwhelming long time central bank efforts to manage the gold price.

The fallout from Hurricane Rita appears to be far less adverse than its predecessor, but coming after a week in which the US taxpayer is being touched for another $200bn, it seems reasonable to guess that the President’s fiscal largesse will continue unabated (at least until his poll ratings improve). Even if nothing additional comes out of Rita, it is worth noting that President Bush has already achieved a record of sorts: According to the American Enterprise Institute's Veronique de Rugy, this President had boosted total inflation-adjusted discretionary spending in his first term by 35.1 percent. By way of comparison, the “Great Society” President, Lyndon Baines Johnson, boosted discretionary spending 33.4 percent. De Rugy also notes that her estimates for fiscal year 2005 (the last budget signed in Bush's first term) are based on mid-session review numbers, (which are invariably smaller than the final amounts). Nor does this figure take into account “the numerous supplemental passed this year, and the new spending triggered by the Katrina disaster.” Although the dollar seems oblivious to these exceptional numbers, the gold market has duly taken note (as has the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, who conceded to the French Finance Minister that America has “lost control” of its budget).

big snip>

After a rally of almost 10 per cent this month, and the inevitable participation of price-chasing momentum investors, it is conceivable that we could see a short term period of weakness in gold. Gold’s newfound prominence in the mainstream press may also be suggestive of a temporary top. The metal tends to do best when quietly operating under the radar of most market participants and pundits. It is an unfortunate truth that the mainstream economics establishment has managed to smear gold enthusiasts with the tar of either irrelevance or craziness or both. Not only are these charges unjust, but they the purpose of keep discussion of the virtues of gold off the pages of “serious” publications like the FT or the Economist (except when the objective is to disparage the metal and its supporters). Nevertheless, this shouldn’t obscure the fact that the international economy is essentially pursuing a continuation of the same economic policy that has been followed for the better part of the last century. This, by and large, involves borrowing larger and larger amounts of money that are monetised by the Fed and the major central banks at rates varying with the business and credit cycle. With a seemingly never-ending US credit bubble now stoking an extraordinary global liquidity glut, the fuse has been lit: ongoing financial fragility, coupled with an increasingly unstable political backdrop, high oil prices, and Europe’s soggy economic growth, have all created the perfect storm to ensure gold’s continued robustness in the medium to longer term.

more...

[JNelson6563]

50. I saw this coming a long time ago.

:bounce:

Yay gold!

[54anickel]

51. About the same time Lil' Bush announced his candidacy?...eom

[JNelson6563]

55. heh heh, Yeah, about then.

Of course I have all you Marketeers as witnesses. :toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

53. 11:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,428.02 -15.61 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,114.86 -6.60 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,212.48 -3.15 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.292 -0.02 (-0.05%)

NYSE Volume 580,688,000
Nasdaq Volume 492,988,000

11:00AM: The major averages move south, unable to be supported by Consumer Staples' now-solo 0.3% gain... The Financial sector's 0.4% decline currently weighs heaviest on the market, and is the result of broad-based selling pressure that leaves about 80% of the sector's components underwater. Brokers are off again today, sliding 0.2%, while a weak Treasury market has perhaps extended the PHLX Bank Sector Index's (BKX -0.4%) 7.6% year-to-date dip...

Amid weakness in each of its subgroups, besides software (+0.2%), Tech's 0.3% decline serves as a further downward force and partners with Financial as well as Healthcare (-0.5%) - together accounting for half of the S&P - to stunt any upward attempts...NYSE Adv/Dec 1077/1886, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 980/1693

[54anickel]

56. Globalization of the Political Economy (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050926-mon.html#anchor0

snip>

Two extremes frame the choices -- the United States with its minimal social contract and Old Europe with its deeply entrenched social welfare state. A couple of numbers say it all: Public sector social expenditures are currently running around 15% of GDP in the US -- well below Europe’s 24% share. Post-bubble Japan has been attempting to find a middle ground -- effectively tearing up the lifetime employment contracts that were long at the core of its corporate welfare state; moreover, the Japanese electorate has now given Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi a strong mandate to pursue further reforms. China has its own unique balancing act -- pushing hard on several dimensions of the reform front but holding tightly to its all-important stability constraint. The contrasts between these approaches have turned globalization into something of a foot race. America has emerged as the “hare” whereas Europe seems unwilling or unable to shed its “tortoise-like” attributes. But globalization is a marathon -- not a sprint. And it is not a clear-cut conclusion that the front-runner has the stamina to hold the lead. The increasingly chronic pitfalls of a saving-short US economy underscore the perils of the “shoestring” approach to globalization (see my 9 September essay, The Shoestring Economy). This raises the profound question as to whether the US approach is truly the gold standard of globalization that other nations should seek to emulate. Or, in more literary terms, forget about the tortoise -- can the fabled hare actually make it to that ever-elusive finish line?

snip>

A superficial assessment of the US model usually boils down to one word -- flexibility. Americans are perceived to be risk-takers -- unafraid to re-invent themselves or their institutions in response to changing circumstances. Possibly the best example of this trait is the painful restructuring of the 1980s -- a direct outgrowth of the economic quagmire of the 1970s. President Ronald Reagan’s willingness to go to the mat and break a strike by air traffic controllers in 1981 may well have been the tipping point -- emblematic of the coming sea change in the social contract for American workers. Faced with unprecedented competitive pressures, over the first half of the 1980s, beleaguered factory workers opted for job security over wage rigidity. Collective bargaining contracts were subsequently re-opened and rollbacks of multi-year compensation packages became the norm. At the same time, deregulation became the mantra for a transition to “small government.” The combination of wage flexibility and deregulation allowed the US to reap the benefits of the IT-enabled productivity revolution of the 1990s. The rest of the world stood by with its jaws wide open. The American model was on the ascendancy as never before.

snip>

Beneath the surface, the contrasts between these two approaches are even starker. In particular, the American model has taken consumerism to an extreme, with private consumption having averaged 71% of GDP since early 2002. By contrast, the European consumption share is currently around 58%, whereas in Japan, it is only 55%; the Chinese consumption share trails the pack at 42%. Ironically, the excesses of US consumerism have been accompanied by a shift in the shares of national income away from labor and back toward capital. In the US, the worker compensation share fell to a 30-year low of 65% in 2005 whereas “economic corporate profits” currently stand at a near-record 11% share of GDP. By contrast, worker compensation shares are higher elsewhere in the advanced world -- 67% in Japan and 68% in Europe. Not only does America slice the pie differently, it has a very different appetite for eating it as well.

snip>

While tactical gratification may work well for a time in today’s world, beneath the surface, there are serious questions about sustainability. That’s especially the case with a world economy that remains on an extraordinarily unbalanced growth path. As long as the global body politic fails to appreciate the perils of its imbalances, the more treacherous the endgame. Nor is it clear that the American model is the ideal that other nations or regions should aspire to emulate. Wealth-dependent consumption excesses leave the US exposed to the dark-side pressures of a debt overhang and a current account adjustment. And with post-Katrina aftershocks unmasking the long simmering problems of an impoverished underclass, the debate over America’s social contract -- or lack thereof -- has now been re-opened. America’s shoestring economy may wake up to find itself ill equipped to provide the enhanced safety net needed for a reordering of social and political priorities.

more...

[54anickel]

58. Who's picking up the tab for hurricane damage?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3403854/

The simplest answer: our children and grandchildren will get stuck with the bill. They're the ones who will ultimately have to pay off the debt Congress has authorized to keep spending on the war in Iraq and now the rebuilding of damage caused by back-to-back hurricanes. In the short-term, the cash is coming from the sale of Treasury bonds, which will have to be paid back decades from now.

There's also a significant chunk of money coming from churches and disaster relief agencies like the Red Cross and Salvation Army, which draw on private donations. But the bulk of the money is coming from the federal government.

There was an article in LBN yesterday stating FEMA plans to reimburse the religious organizations

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1808027

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/26/AR2005092601799.html

snip>

Just exactly who gets all this federal money remains to be seen. In the short-term, the funds are going to pay for the rescue and relief efforts, including private contractors who are providing equipment and supplies to help people who were left homeless by the storms. Longer term, the money will also keep contractors busy for months — if not years — rebuilding bridges and highways and other public facilities wiped out by the storm.

Some private facilities, like power lines and generating stations, will be rebuilt with money from the power companies that own them. But they may eventually get that back from their customers: several power companies have already asked for permission to charge higher rates to cover their hurricane costs.

The insurance industry will pick up a major portion of the rebuilding cost, which could top $60 billion for both storms. But for many homeowners, the question of who — if anyone — will pay them to rebuild is up in the air. The issue comes down to a fairly simple question: was your home destroyed by the hurricane (which is usually covered) or from storm-surge floodwaters (which is covered by separate, government-underwritten flood insurance.) Because the storm surge caused by Katrina extended so far inland, lots of those homes didn’t have flood insurance. Now, many of them are hearing from insurance adjusters saying: "Sorry, you're not covered."

more...

[54anickel]

60. Buffett suit attacks IRS taxes as illegal

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0927buffett27.html

LINCOLN, Neb. - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett testified Monday in the trial of his investment firm's two lawsuits accusing the Internal Revenue Service of making it pay more than $23 million in taxes and interest by disallowing certain deductions.

The trial began in U.S. District Court after about three years of legal wrangling between Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and the IRS.

The case stems from two lawsuits that allege the IRS made an "erroneous, wrongful and illegal" interpretation of the U.S. Tax Code when it denied the deductions. advertisement

The original lawsuit, filed in 2002, said the IRS wrongly assessed more than $16 million in taxes and interest against Berkshire in 1989 and 1990.

A second lawsuit said the IRS wrongly assessed it nearly $7 million in 1991.

more...

[UpInArms]

63. my heart bleeds for those poor BH shareholders!

:sarcasm:

Here's the past 9 months of share prices:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=BRK-A&a=00&b=12&c=2005&d=08&e=27&f=2005&g=m

PRICES	
Date	Open		High		Low		Close		Avg Vol	Adj Close*	
Sep-05	83,290.00	84,600.00	78,800.00	82,500.00	60,694	82,500.00	
Aug-05	83,825.00	85,200.00	82,400.00	83,150.00	25,904	83,150.00	
Jul-05	83,800.00	85,450.00	83,350.00	83,500.00	19,850	83,500.00	
Jun-05	84,300.00	84,700.00	82,300.00	83,500.00	28,890	83,500.00	
May-05	84,900.00	86,210.00	82,400.00	84,100.00	40,633	84,100.00	
Apr-05	86,500.00	88,900.00	82,000.00	84,350.00	70,128	84,350.00	
Mar-05	90,500.00	91,050.00	84,500.00	87,000.00	43,545	87,000.00	
Feb-05	89,800.00	92,000.00	89,800.00	90,200.00	26,578	90,200.00	
Jan-05	86,500.00	90,500.00	85,800.00	89,900.00	42,692	89,900.00

These are per share prices.

[54anickel]

66. Whoa, I knew they were pricey but zowie!!! n/t

[ozymandius]

73. I wonder why Buffett does not believe in a stock spilts. n/t

[RawMaterials]

101. I have read quotes along the lines off

do you want 1 hundred dollar bill or 5 20's their is no difference so
he would rather have a higher price to keep away the day traders and common folk who maybe can only buy stocks that are under 100 dollars.

or something to that affect.

[AnneD]

115. Oh I get it

if you have to ask the price...you can't afford it.:eyes:

[54anickel]

62. How the Fed lost the inflation fight

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P129897.asp

snip>

But the battle is over, nonetheless, whether the Federal Reserve will admit it or not. (And I'd guess "not," since saying anything else would send the financial markets into a tizzy.)

Why? Because actual future inflation is driven by current expectations of inflation. In other words, folks raise prices because they expect inflation in the future. And because the factors setting current expectations of inflation are largely outside the Federal Reserve's control, there's very little Alan Greenspan & Co. can do to stop an inflationary psychology from becoming embedded in the economy.

snip>

But even in the financial markets and on Wall Street, the Fed's moves have had much less effect than they used to. Thanks to the derivatives market -- a largely unregulated market that dwarfs the amount of actual U.S. currency in circulation -- traders, speculators, and even many who would once have been called investors think they can keep the game going in spite of the Fed. (I’ll have a column soon on that topic.) The Federal Reserve's power over the financial markets just isn't what it used to be.

The supply side of the equation
The traditional inflation-fighting weapons aren't very well-suited to damping inflation in the current economy. First, because this is supply-led rather than demand-led inflation, and second, because the prime source of inflationary expectations is our federal government in Washington.

more...

Great, for the cycle to turn around, we'll need to wait for corps to reinvest in themselves - anyone see that happening anytime soon?

[UpInArms]

64. LOL!

Supply Side of the Equation:



http://www.techtrading.com/datapoints/falling_dollar.html

Since 1950, the U.S. dollar has lost 90% of its value (See Figure 1). For the entire period from 1950 through 1997, the average annual inflation price increase was 4.1 percent. An average annual inflation rate of 4.2 percent may not seem like a lot, but the devastating effect on the value of the currency is shown by the fact that $1 in 1950 has lost more than 90% of its purchasing power today, and is worth about ten cents.

The biggest decline in the dollar came after the nullification of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971 by then President Richard Nixon. The Bretton Woods agreement allowed foreign governments to trade the U.S. dollar for gold. Foreigners were losing confidence in the dollar and large numbers were requesting to exchange their dollars for gold. After the nullification, foreigners were unable to redeem their holdings of U.S. paper dollars with gold, so they sold their dollars in the open market, which drove the price down.

<snip>



After mismanaging the economy into the biggest bubble in history, the Greenspan Fed has been blowing as much inflation into the currency as it could get away with (See Figure 3). Fed credit has been increasing at nearly 19% (annual rate) for the first 3 months of 2003. The money supply, as measured by money of zero maturity, rose nearly 12% - or about 5 times faster than the economy, again in the first 3 months of 2003.

Since 1995, M3 money supply has increased a stunning $2.6 trillion, or 60%. Total credit supply has surged $9.3 trillion, or 54%, to $26.5 trillion. But the most violent crescendo has taken place since late 1998, after the Fed’s easing in the wake of the Asian-Russian crisis. M3 money supply in the short span of time since then has virtually exploded by $1.5 trillion ( 27% ) and overall credit supply by $5.3 trillion ( 25% ) . Compare these astronomical money and credit figures with annual nominal GDP growth since end-1998 of around $775 billion.

As a result of high debt, debasement of the currency, and unattractive interest rates, the U.S. dollar continues to fall against its foreign counterparts, down 18 percent against the euro in 2002 and 10 percent against the yen. That's not the worst it has been in history, but it's certainly a substantial slide. With a war, a slow economic recovery and future threats of terrorism looming on the horizon, there's little reason to believe things are going to improve.

...more...

“The risk of deflation in America is extremely small, we have a technology called a printing press.” Benjamin Bernanke, Federal Reserve Governor

[54anickel]

68. He does "touch" on that aspect toward the end -

The sheer size of the annual budget deficit -- no matter whose accounting you use -- is damaging enough to any effort to prevent inflationary expectations from becoming embedded in the economy. As one spending plan gets piled on top of another, more and more people find it easier and easier to believe that the conscious plan in Washington is spend and spend, and then inflate and inflate, to make it easier to pay down the huge debt that's been built up.

But I think the damage goes deeper than that. Watching our government at work, it's hard to believe that money, especially the U.S. dollar, has any value at all.

Think the Federal Reserve's measured interest-rate increases and the occasional warnings from Alan Greenspan are any match for the example of our national government, spending our money as if it was so worthless that there's no point in even keeping track of it?

[UpInArms]

65. 12:03 EST almost all better now!

Dow 10,443.46 -0.17 (-0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,117.18 -4.28 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,213.79 -1.84 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.310 +0.16 (+0.37%)

NYSE Volume 822,414,000
Nasdaq Volume 698,327,000

[54anickel]

69. Report: Wal-Mart eyeing Hilfiger

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5636712.html

Shares of clothing maker Tommy Hilfiger Corp. fell 8 cents after Women's Wear Daily reported that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. might bid for the company.

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, approached the Hong Kong-based clothing maker and might start due diligence this week, the newspaper said, citing unnamed people in banking. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are talking to potential buyers, the newspaper said.

Wal-Mart is trying to lure more affluent shoppers with items such as $19 embellished velvet slippers and $986 LCD televisions to compete with Minneapolis-based Target Corp., which sells clothing and home goods by designers such as Isaac Mizrahi. Analysts expressed doubt that Wal-Mart would buy the struggling company, saying it could simply purchase Tommy Hilfiger clothing.

The retailer "has been very clear in the past that they don't want to pay up to have a designer name," said Seattle-based Patricia Edwards, who helps manage $5.7 billion in assets for Wentworth, Hauser & Violich including Wal-Mart shares.

more...

[ozymandius]

72. Will they sell Hilfiger shirts off the back of truck?

When does the Beverly Hills Wal-Mart open?

[54anickel]

70. Germany's inflation at highest for 4 years

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/98e274a6-2ec3-11da-9aed-00000e2511c8.html

Eurozone inflation is expected to rise steeply this month on the back of soaring energy costs after German data on Monday showed prices increasing at the fastest pace for four years.


ADVERTISEMENT




Inflation in the eurozone's largest economy jumped from an annual rate of 1.9 per cent in August to 2.5 per cent this month the highest since June 2001, according to official figures based on data from six German federal states. Economists said eurozone figures, published on Friday, were now likely to show an annual inflation rate of at least 2.5 per cent, and might be as high as 2.7 per cent.

Eurozone inflation would probably remain for the rest of the year above the European Central Bank's definition of price stability of a rate “below but close” to 2 per cent. Eurozone inflation in August was 2.2 per cent.

The higher inflation rate will add to the dilemma facing the ECB at a time when oil prices are also hitting eurozone growth and the political stalemate after Germany's September 18 election adds to economic uncertainty.

“They are in no way close to hiking interest rates, but it is something that weighs on their minds,” said Dirk Schumacher, economist at Goldman Sachs. The ECB has held its main interest rate unchanged at 2 per cent for 27 months running. Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, has reiterated the Frankfurt-based institution's determination to keep inflation expectations in check. But financial markets still do not expect a rise in eurozone borrowing costs until next year.

more...


Euro area Aug M3 up 8.1 pct vs 7.9 pct in July

FRANKFURT (AFX) - Euro area M3 money supply grew 8.1 pct year-on-year in August, up from a 7.9 pct growth rate in July, the European Central Bank said

The three-month average of the annual growth rate of M3 over the June-August period stood at 7.9 pct, up from 7.6 pct in May-July, the ECB said

The figures exclude non-resident holdings of money market fund shares and units, money market paper and short-term debt securities. They are also adjusted for seasonal and end-of-month calendar effects

It said the annual growth rate of M1, which is the currency in circulation and overnight deposits, stood at 11.5 pct in August, up from 11.1 pct in July

more...

[ozymandius]

71. 12:49 numbers

Dow 10,440.36 -3.27 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,117.19 -4.27 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,213.99 -1.64 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 43.04 +0.10 (+0.23%)
NYSE Volume 967,584,000
Nasdaq Volume 820,389,000

[UpInArms]

76. High energy prices threaten credit spreads-Barclays

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T163757Z_01_N27212506_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-CREDIT-BARCLAYS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Higher oil and natural gas prices pose a significant threat to generally compressed corporate credit spreads, Barclays Capital said on Tuesday.

Credit investors have mostly ignored rising oil prices during the last year, which has helped keep spreads tight, Robert McAdie, head of global credit strategy at Barclays Capital, said during Barclays' monthly conference call on Tuesday.

"If we're going into a period of protracted higher oil prices and refined product prices, then we could see that correlation increasing," McAdie warned. "That will have an impact in driving certain spreads wider, including autos, airlines, industrials and consumer (goods)."

The length of time oil and natural gas prices remain high will likely decide how much impact they have on consumer spending, credit spreads and economic growth in general, McAdie said.

"A lot depends on duration," McAdie said. "They will have an impact on slowing growth or even be a catalyst for recession."

Higher energy prices will also continue to erode corporate earnings growth, he added.

...more...

[54anickel]

78. Consumers or lenders: Who will blink first?

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5636572.html

Is the world economy in good or bad shape? Judged by the pace of growth, it is in glowing health. Despite soaring oil prices, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook reckons that global output will grow by 4.3 percent both this year and next, well above its trend rate.

But risks are growing. Inflation is picking up. The U.S. current-account deficit is above 6 percent of GDP, an eye-watering level. And with the saving rate of U.S. households now negative, consumers look ever more financially stretched.

The world economy, in short, is both surprisingly buoyant and worryingly imbalanced. As a result, the outlook is more uncertain than the healthy rate of growth indicates. Some big sources of growth are ultimately unsustainable because even U.S. consumers cannot forever spend more than their income, nor U.S. foreign borrowing rise indefinitely.

Eventually, balance must be restored through slower spending growth in the United States compared with that in the rest of the world. But no one is sure where the limits lie, nor how painful the ultimate adjustment will be. Will U.S. consumers slow their spending first, or will foreigners first tire of lending the United States money? Will the shifts be sudden or gradual? And will spending elsewhere pick up the slack?

Many people worry that foreigners will blink first -- because investors lose their appetite for U.S. assets or because Asia's central banks stop buying dollars on such a huge scale. Either development could send the dollar crashing.....

Chicken vs egg argument. Yet they don't mention the thought of the worth less buck as the under-lying cause for those foreigners to blink. Seems the US always points the finger at someone else.:eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

82. "He started it when he hit me back!" cried the itty bitty whiny

child.

[54anickel]

81. I see gold is recovering nicely, despite the buck being up...

I gotta run for a bit - dog beautification day. Shave and a tubby for both. Will check in later. :hi:

Keep an eye out for the Greenspin spew - should be a dilly.

[54anickel]

94. Ohhh Boy, thought old dog was a goner! Just finished his hair cut

had him off the table for 5 minutes and he had a really bad seizure. He's had them from time to time all his life but I thought for sure this was the big one. I was ballin' my eyes out, figuring I killed the old guy.

He came out and seems OK, remembered it was time for a treat for being a good boy. Think I'll skip his tubby, maybe just a quick shower instead....

Sorry for interrupting the SMW, but no one else to ramble to today!

[UpInArms]

96. I'm so glad he's okay!

[AnneD]

106. I think dogs seizing would be similar to people seizing...

let him rest. Watch him carefully as he eats and drinks for a while. I know humans stand to lose some higher function (math and language) so I wouldn't be looking for him to fetch right away. Is he on meds? Many meds esp seizure meds were tested on dogs (if I remember right). Poor baby, how frightening for you both. TLC prescribed for you both...

[54anickel]

110. Thanks all. He's OK now, just tired. He usually likes to watch the

other one get buzzed and tease him but he curled up in his bed instead.

He used to get the thrashing kind of seizures but the couple of years they start out as a stupor, then his legs just spread out from under him and he just lays on his belly and pants. All his muscles tense up and his heart races. Like I said, he's had seizures all of his life along with a heart murmur. Amazing he's been around this long (going on 16 years).

Not on any meds, the vet said if it's only one or two a year it would be hard to diagnose the cause to determine the treatment.(That was years ago) We figured it was most likely head trauma - he was soooo wild as a pup, ran into everything head first.

[AnneD]

116. Ahhhh yes

the hazards of riding without a helmut. We had a dog like that on Grandma and Grandpa's farm. Kicked in the head one too many times by the cows and horses....Didn't stop him...just slowed him down a bit. Can't remember his name, I alway called him Dufus (in a loving way of course).

[UpInArms]

85. 2:01 EST straight up spikes! WHEE!

Dow 10,455.89 +12.26 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,117.79 -3.67 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,215.75 +0.12 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.309 +0.15 (+0.35%)

NYSE Volume 1,211,821,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,039,161,000
2:00PM: While trading remains static and binds the major averages within the session's narrow range, the Dow has regained positive footing as several pockets of relative strength have emerged. Consumer Staples (+0.7%), remaining the day's leader and picking up slightly more steam, is bolstered by a 4.3% rise in agricultural products - for which surging Arch-Daniels-Midland (ADM 23.68 +0.97) stock is responsible. The shares have gained 4.3% today as investors have cheered Prudential's upgrade and target hike...

The sector's drug retail index has been similarly boosted, up about 2.0% after AG Edwards upgraded Walgreen Co. (WAG) shares to a Buy, while a 1.0% surge in Altria (MO 73.25 +0.73) has lent further support and also helped lift the Dow... Areas of strength aren't limited to the Consumer Staples sector though, as areas like healthcare facilities (+1.0%) and airlines (+0.9%) have also risen...NYSE Adv/Dec 1092/2144, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1066/1843

1:30PM: Range-bound trading persists as selling remains widespread across most areas... The dollar, however, has climbed to two-month highs versus both the euro and the yen, strengthened as traders believe the rate-tightening cycle will continue... Comments last night from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig, which accompanied other Fed officials' suggestions that the economy is in "reasonably good shape despite Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, have also provided support for the greenback...

To that end, gold prices have continued to consolidate from 18-year highs reached last week, further weighing upon an already underperforming Materials (-0.4%) sector which typically attracts buyers when the dollar is under pressure...NYSE Adv/Dec 1058/2153, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1040/1838

updated blather on edit

[ozymandius]

86. up-downdate

2:16
Dow 10,452.31 +8.68 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,116.81 -4.65 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,215.05 -0.58 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 43.10 +0.16 (+0.37%)
NYSE Volume 1,274,591,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,089,228,000

[Capn Sunshine]

87. here comes the sucker punch

everybody happy? Good. The Bigs are trading the averages and just wrote a ton of calls.

BTW there's something happeneing to the Treasuries as well; I see some guys in there who NEVER touch 10 years and they are taking the down side of every trade for the last ten minutes. Probably trying to push the hedges into the indexes.

BTW One of my clients just got an anonymous letter from his Dain Rauscher ( RBC) account. Looks like someone stole a couple of hundred of their high net worth client base identities.

And they just got a new CEO too.
Later kids.

Love ya, Julie!

[ozymandius]

89. Hi Capn. Been awhile.

Do you reckon any of these folks are bidding against themselves?

How often do you see hedges in the 10-yr?

[Capn Sunshine]

108. That would be something

Normally, if there is such a word, 10 yr.s are used as hedges themselves. To hedge a bond you'd have to use a bill, I guess, along with a derivative,maybe a preferred straddle .....ow, my head hurts.

Just saw Greenie's lecture. The Bond boys said "what else is new" and determined maybe the end of the quarter could use a little window dressing.

10 years immediately ticked up .005.
Yay.

[AnneD]

88. I'll take my Rita on the rocks with salt... thank you very much

Late afternoon marketeers and lurkers. It is so nice to be on line after all our excitement. I came back early to put my clinic back in order for tomorrow.
I sheltered in place in Houston, and felt sorry for those on the highway. I sent my daughter with some well to do friends that have a ranch in Austin, so she had a nice holiday.
My bosses at job 2 had the nerve to tell me that I was to stay on the job off the clock (got called in on my day off, after the hurricane)'You can sleep in a chair if you need too...we have to pay LVN's overtime, we don't have to pay RN's ot'. We don't want you to leave because you may not be able to get back'. Now I know these people need a nurse but the meds had not arrived from the evac site, some of the med books were missing, and even if you might have a med, you might not be able to identify the person because there may not be a picture of them or someone to help you identify them (they are mentally impaired and frequently don't know what planet they are on let alone their full name). I took one look at the chaos, comprehended the punitive nature of those requesting me to put my license in jeopardy and said enough was enough. I wrote up a notice for that day, stated I had not signed in (even though I had been there 1 1/2 hours) and had not taken an assignment and walked out. If these companies want things to be 'at will' then I have no fear in exercising my options....they would can me in a minute if they too a notion and claim at will. There were some others that quit, but they may have taken an assignment, and that would have been pt abandonment...a big nursing no no. I think I am safe in what I did and refused on the grounds of pt safety. I won't get a recommendation, but I'll keep my license I hope. If they had been just a little bit nicer about it because I enjoy that patient population. I would have taken a risk, but these folks delighted in playing gotcha. Oh well, back to looking for PRN again. I don't regret my actions (I did make a copy of the reports to back me up before I left....Momma didn't raise no fool.)
I expect gas to go up, that golden triangle region (Pt Arthur, Beaumont, Orange) is our refinery zone. You guys up North are going to be crying when you have to pay for heating oil. The refineries are late in switching over to processing heating oil. It will surely be the winter of our discontent......
Well, hope all's well and I am so glad to be here.

[UpInArms]

90. Hiya AnneD!

:hi:

So glad to have you back amongst us!

Worried a bit - hoping that you would be in a safe place to weather the storm - feared that you might be in that snarled traffic for days - both in out and back in.

Hope all goes well with your working situation - they sound like buggers.

:pals:

[AnneD]

114. Thanks UIA

I am very glad I stayed. I didn't make up my mind until Fri am. What luck. I got all my supplies and a tank full of gas too. Had my emergency fund and some cash too. I was set either way. Hubby was stuck in Atlanta airport (but believe me, he has incrediable networking skills-I never worried about him but he was fretting about me.) I had alot of peace in my decision to stay. Just like I had peace in my decision to quit that POS part time job.
They funniest thing I saw...it actually rained in circles. The rain came down and the gusts would whip it around so badly, it couldn't hit the ground.

[UpInArms]

92. Atlanta Georgia area layoffs: 830 jobs

NCO Financial Systems, others report layoffs

http://atlanta.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2005/09/26/daily17.html?jst=b_ln_hl

excerpt:

NCO Financial Systems Inc. cut 101 employees in Duluth, Ga., on Sept. 12. The collection agency is a unit of Horsham, Pa.-based NCO Group (NASDAQ: NCOG). It also operates branches locally in Norcross and Atlanta.

On Nov. 3. GreenTree Servicing LLC will close up in Smyrna, Ga., and cut 178 jobs. The St. Paul, Minn.-based servicer of manufactured home, home equity and home improvement loans was formerly known as Conseco Finance.

Cooper-Standard Automotive Inc. will close shop in Griffin, Ga., and cut 347 jobs starting Nov. 11. The Novi, Mich.-based company makes car parts.

Starting Dec. 31, KMC Telecom Holdings Inc. will eliminate 60 jobs in Lawrenceville, Ga. The Bedminster, N.J.-based company provides high-speed telecom services.

General Motors Acceptance Corp. will cut 45 jobs in Atlanta starting Jan. 1. The global finance company is a subsidiary of General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM).

...a bit more at link...

[ozymandius]

93. my neighbors

So many of these jobs are based in the Atlanta burbs. Mostly in the north. Griffin is in the southern metro area. All of these areas have seen record-breaking growth in the past ten years.

[UpInArms]

95. 3:01 EST WIND IN SAILS! YEEHAW TIME! WE'RE RICH!!!!!

Dow 10,492.27 +48.64 (+0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,124.50 +3.04 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,219.94 +4.31 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.315 +0.21 (+0.49%)

NYSE Volume 1,477,565,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,253,170,000

[UpInArms]

98. WASHED-UP HAS-BEEN PARTISAN HACK SPEWS BUSH SHIT

2:45pm 09/27/05 GREENSPAN DOESN'T DISCUSS HURRICANES IN TUESDAY SPEECH

2:45pm 09/27/05 GREENSPAN DEFENDS NOT BURSTING STOCK BUBBLE

2:45pm 09/27/05 GREENSPAN: INCREASING FLEXIBILITY IMPORTANT FOR ECONOMY

2:45pm 09/27/05 GREENSPAN: ECONOMY HANDLING OIL PRICES 'REASONABLY WELL'

Greenspan trumpets U.S. economic flexibility
Doesn't address hurricanes' impact on economy

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B24F65F0D%2D3B40%2D48CC%2DB52E%2D1F4E54FFBF4B%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Deregulation in key sectors of business and finance has made the U.S. economy flexible enough to survive a series of shocks including 9/11, said Fed chief Alan Greenspan on Tuesday.

The Fed chief did not address the economic impact of Hurricane Katrina and Rita. On Monday, he said the Fed was monitoring conditions in the Gulf Coast region closely.

In his remarks, Greenspan returned to one of his favorite topics, that of Adam Smith's thesis in 1776 that an "invisible hand" of competition - and not economic policymaking - guides an economy's resources to their fullest use.

"Most recently, the flexibility of our market-driven economy has allowed us, thus far, to weather reasonably well the steep rise in spot and future prices of oil and natural gas that we have experienced over the past two years," Greenspan said in a speech prepared for delivery to the National Association of Business Economics in Chicago. A copy of his remarks was made available here.

"Although the business cycle has not disappeared, flexibility has made the economy more resilient to shocks and more stable overall during the past couple of decades," Greenspan said.

The Fed chief said the economic stability does have a price - periods of "growing market exuberance" that can lead to speculative asset bubbles.

...more...

I would suppose that KKKarl is writing all the Fed-spew speeches these days.

[Roland99]

99. Forget all about that 18% one-month drop in Consumer Confidence

BUY! BUY! BUY!

[UpInArms]

105. U.S. stocks turn positive as Greenspan speaks

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38622.6326354282-843949025&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The major averages shot higher Tuesday afternoon on investor relief that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in a public speech did not make hawkish remarks about monetary policy or the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) was up 40.52 points at 10,484.15, the S&P 500 ($SPX) up 3.01 points at 1,218.64, and the Nasdaq composite ($COMPX) up 1.67 points at 2,123.13. "Greenspan said nothing about monetary policy or the economy," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "So it looks like there could be some short-covering by guys who were nervous he would say something hawkish."

What a freakin' magician! All he has to do is speak!

Cold late night so long ago
When I was not so strong you know
A pretty man came to me
Never seen eyes so blue
I could not run away
It seemed we’d seen each other in a dream
It seemed like he knew me
He looked right through me
Come on home, girl he said with a smile
You don’t have to love me yet
Let’s get high awhile
But try to understand
Try to understand
Try try try to understand
I’m a magic man.

Winter nights we sang in tune
Played inside the months of moon
Never think of never
Let this spell last forever
Summer over passed to fall
Tried to realize it all
Mama says she’s worried
Growing up in a hurry

Come on home, girl mama cried on the phone
Too soon to lose my baby yet my girl should be at home!
But try to understand, try to understand
Try try try to understand
He’s a magic man, mama
He’s a magic man

Come on home, girl he said with a smile
I cast my spell of love on you a woman from a child!
But try to understand, try to understand
I’m a magic man!

[spotbird]

102. Greenspan said standard of living improving.

He must have asked Brownie what he thought. These people think that if they say something it is true, or maybe that by saying something preposterous it becomes true.

[UpInArms]

104. Exuberance always leads to asset drops--Greenspan

(and it's not his fault - so quit saying that!)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T190814Z_01_N27724248_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-GREENSPAN-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Asset prices "invariably" fall after long periods of high risk taking in markets, and a flexible economy is better able to withstand the inevitable blow, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday.

"History cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets," Greenspan told an economics conference in Chicago via satellite.

In a speech in which he once again defended the Fed's decision not to prick the late-1990s stock market bubble, Greenspan said a successful monetary policy can reduce economic volatility and lead to greater risk-taking.

But he said economic flexibility can help contain any fallout.

"Because it is difficult to suppress growing market exuberance when the economic environment is perceived as more stable, a highly flexible system needs to be in place to rebalance an economy in which psychology and asset prices could change rapidly," Greenspan said.

...more...

[AnneD]

109. Oh Brother...

:spray: :rofl: :rofl: :wtf: I guess the rich really are different. Here in the hood, we be hurting....:eyes:

[UpInArms]

107. 3:25 EST still sailing on breezy calmed and comforted maestro seas

Dow 10,487.57 +43.94 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,123.64 +2.18 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,218.96 +3.33 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.301 +0.07 (+0.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,605,654,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,365,779,000

3:00PM: Market abandons its neutral stance, as renewed buying interest pushes the major averages to session highs, leaving seven of ten sectors in positive territory... Fed Chair Greenspan's prepared speech has provided some late day relief as traders digest reiterated remarks that do not feature significantly new information. In one fresh point, though, Greenspan has said that "Asset price drops often follow low-risk eras", a presumable nod to pockets of excess witnessed in housing markets across the country...

The Treasury market, meanwhile, has remained relatively unchanged; the 10-year note is down three ticks and yielding 4.30%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1249/2032, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1287/1664

U.S. blue chips add to gains after Greenspan

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-27T191330Z_01_N27235908_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-9-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. blue-chip stocks added to earlier gains on Tuesday and technology stocks turned higher after Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Alan Greenspan, offered reassuring comments on asset prices.

"This was a reassuring statement by the Fed," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist, Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. :crazy:

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 45 points, or 0.43 percent, at 10,488.63. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 3.96 points, or 0.33 percent, at 1,219.59. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 4.44 points, or 0.21 percent, at 2,125.90.

[54anickel]

111. Oh for cripes sake! This is just getting crazy. Did the Fed EVER yammer

so much in the past? Always pacifying the markets? Bed time stories and lullabies. Beatles tune in the head now.....


And I shall sing a lull-a by-eeeeee -
Boy, you gotta carry that weight
Carry that weight a long time
Boy, you gotta carry that weight
Carry that weight a long time

[AnneD]

117. You never give me an invitation..

and in the middle of the investigation I break down.... Ohhhh more appropriate than you could guess 54...now I have to look up the lyrics...

[54anickel]

118. Heh-heh, that one's stuck in my head along with Magic Man thanks

to UIA. You know the easiest way to get rid of one of those tunes that just get stuck.....


We all live in a yellow submarine. GACK!!!!
That one takes DAYS to get rid of. He-he :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

119. No Yellow Submarine!!!!

AAAAAACCCCKCKKKKCKCKCKCKAAA!!!!

Here - let's do Abbey Road instead!

You never give me your money
You only give me your funny paper
and in the middle of negotiations
you break down

I never give you my number
I only give you my situation
and in the middle of investigation
I break down

Out of college, money spent
See no future, pay no rent
All the money's gone, nowhere to go
Any jobber got the sack
Monday morning, turning back
Yellow lorry slow, nowhere to go
But oh, that magic feeling, nowhere to go
Oh, that magic feeling
Nowhere to go

One sweet dream
Pick up the bags and get in the limousine
Soon we'll be away from here
Step on the gas and wipe that tear away
One sweet dream came true today
Came true today
Came true today (yes it did)

One two three four five six seven,
All good children go to Heaven

Whew! That was close!

[54anickel]

121. That's a great one!!! Chased that "other" unmentionable song right outta

my noodle. Thanks!

[ozymandius]

112. final numbers

Dow 10,456.21 +12.58 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,116.42 -5.04 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,215.66 +0.03 (+0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 43.01 +0.07 (+0.16%)
NYSE Volume 1,946,641,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,616,346,000

blather later

[UpInArms]

113. closing blather

Close: The market closed right back where it started, paring late-day gains that came with crude's 1.1% pullback and relief in a speech from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan that largely reiterated prior statements and featured little new information. Stocks spent the majority of the session hovering around both sides of the flat line, bound within a tight trading range after traders swallowed a worse than expected consumer confidence report. While the September read of 86.6 - the lowest level in two years - fell short of economists' expectations (consensus 95.0) and dipped 17.9% from the Aug. report, it had been no real surprise. At the same time, though, the data gave traders another glimpse at Katrina's destruction and perhaps braced them for future reports related to Hurricane Rita... The market's subsequent decline was, however, somewhat minimized by the fact that concerns about the economy's growth prospects related to the devastation from Katrina, and the resulting surge in energy prices, had perhaps been baked into recent market weakness that pulled the three major indices down nearly 2.0% last week...

While the early part of the session lacked any real sector leadership and thus made for a static session, the Consumer Staples and Industrials sectors gained steam post-lunch, chalking respective gains of 0.9% and 0.6%. Their contributions, however, were unable to counter broad-based selling pressure that kept more influential sectors underwater. Energy (+0.1%), challenged by crude oil's ($65.07/bbl -$0.75) slide and an analyst downgrade on ExxonMobil (XOM 64.62 +0.02) that offset an upgrade on Chevron (CVX 64.18 -0.06), Financials (+0.1%), stunted by banks' extended weakness, and Materials (+0.01%) vacillated around the flat line throughout the day. It was the Financial sector's passive stance, coupled with the Tech sector's 0.3% decline, that served as the biggest impediment to upward efforts. To that end, Technology was the heaviest decliner while Health Care's 0.5% decline also kept the indices further in check. The Consumer Discretionary sector also had a poor showing, bogged down by weakness in homebuilders (-0.1%) after a report revealed a 10% decline in Aug. new home sales (to 1237K vs. the 1350K consensus)...

As for the gainers today, Consumer Staples served as the brightest spot, turning in a leading gain after an analyst upgrade on Walgreen's (WAG 43.17 +1.67) shares and the Wall Street Journal's coining of Coca-Cola (KO 42.33 -0.04) and Heinz (HNZ 35.75 +0.67) as bargains lent day-long support... The Industrials sector was fueled by soaring Boeing' (BA 66.56 +1.88) shares, as the company attracted considerable follow-through buying interest following yesterday's agreement to end its largest union's strike...

Separately, the Treasury market staged a bit of a recovery, perhaps an indication of Greenspan-related relief, closing the benchmark 10-year note up two ticks and at a 4.28% yield and spurring a 0.3% gain in the interest-rate sensitive Utilities sector... DJTA +0.05, DJUA +0.41, DOT -0.11, Nasdaq 100 -0.26, Russell 2000 -0.18, SOX -1.23, S&P Midcap 400 -0.10, XOI -0.15, NYSE Adv/Dec 1398/1917, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1353/1644

(shiny coin syndrome strikes again!)

:hi: